Favorite Edgar Martinez stat of the day: Against left-handed pitching this year, he’s drawn 15 walks and struck out 3 times in 54 at-bats.
I’ve also realized that we could come up with a great stat like that for Edgar every single day and not run out until the end of the year. The man’s a machine. Somebody tell him he’s 40 years old and not supposed to be contending for the MVP award.
It’s probably about time for us to talk about Ryan Franklin.
After last night’s game, he’s got a 3.58 ERA in 50 innings. He’s averaging nearly 7 innings per start and is on pace for 204 innings this year. He’s got a higher ERA at Safeco than he does on the road, meaning he’s not being overrated by park effects. He’s pitched better in May than he did in April. His WHIP (walks + hits per innings pitched) is 1.29, a very solid number.
However, he also ranks 104th among the 109 major league pitchers who qualify for the ERA title right now. His 3.58 K/9 innings is remarkably low, even for a contact pitcher. Among other pitchers with K/9 under 4.00, Kirk Rueter is the only one having anything resembling a successful season. His Groundball/Flyball ratio of .71 ranks 105th out of 109 (Gil Meche is 108th).
He’s not keeping the ball down. He’s giving up home runs, as usual. He’s not striking batters out. Yet he’s working deep into ballgames and consistently shutting people down. Paul Abbott won 17 games with smoke and mirrors doing similar things. Do we think Franklin’s in for a similar type season, or do we start waiting for the inevitable implosion?
Quick note — the Big Board (see the link on your left) has been updated.
Minor League Highlights for Thursday, May 15
Tacoma 8, Edmonton 2. RHP Rafael Soriano returned to the starting rotation in style (6 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 4 K), but wasn’t around to pick up the win as he left with the scored tied. Despite the 8-2 final this was actually a pitcher’s duel for most of the game, as neither team had scored after seven innings. The Rainiers then exploded for six in the 8th and two more in the 9th, with RHP Brian Sweeney (1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K) getting the win in relief. LF Adrian Myers, C Julio Mosquera and SS Ruben Castillo each had three hits for Tacoma, including a pair of doubles for Castillo. Myers stole two bases on the night, and Pat Borders drove in three runs with a bases-clearing, pinch-hit double in the 8th.
San Antonio 11, Round Rock 8. The wildly inconsistant season of RHP Clint Nageotte continued, as he left the game after allowing five runs in the 3rd inning (3 IP, 6 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 3 BB, 5 K). Fortunately the Missions had their hitting shoes on, scoring 11 runs on 11 hits thanks to homers from SS Jose Lopez and 1B A.J. Zapp. Zapp had three hits in the game to go along with two runs scored and three RBIs, while Lopez had a pair of hits, scored once and drove in two. RF Elpidio Guzman was also a key contributor, driving in four runs on the night. Finally, CF Michael Curry’s exploits on the basepaths continued, as the speeder stole his 21st base of the year in 23 attempts.
Rancho Cucamonga 2, Inland Empire 1. RHP Glenn Bott (6 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 5 K) and two relievers combined to hold Rancho Cucamonga to just three hits, but it wasn’t enough as the 66ers managed just one run on four hits of their own. The lone run came in the 7th, when 1B John Castellano doubled and then scored on a DH Richard Pohle single. Newly acquired Cristian “Vlad’s cousin” Guerrero, picked up on waivers from the Brewers (which should tell you pretty much everything you need to know about him as a player) made his debut in the M’s system with a pinch-hit single.
Wisconsin 2, Lansing 0. Despite being out-hit 10-5 in the game, the Timber Rattlers won behind a strong start from LHP T.A. Fulmer (7 IP, 9 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 8 K) and a pair or runs in the 3rd inning. Fulmer, who threw a complete game his last time out, has now allowed just two runs in his past 16 innings pitched. Wisconsin scored their runs with a bit of small ball, all started with a SS Michael Garciaparra single. A walk to LF Dustin Delucchi and a 2B Tim Merritt sacrifice bunt later, Garciaparra scored on a sacrifice fly by CF Gary Harris and Delucchi moved to third. Delucchi then scored on a wild pitch, giving Fulmer and two relievers all the runs they’d need.
I don’t feel I’ve posted much non-Minor League Highlights content lately, so here goes. Fasten your seatbelts, yadda yadda yadda.
The offense appears to really be clicking right now, eh boys and girls? Ichiro, who was hitting .243 just two weeks ago, nearly has his average up to .300 (.297 entering today’s game). Of course, he’s still not walking — 12 for the season and just one since April 24th, for a so-so .351 OBP — nor is he hitting for power, with just 17% of his hits going for extra bases. That’s a really, really poor number, even worse than what he did the past two seasons (right at 20% both years). Still, though, things seem to be going well. Or are they? *Cue ominous music*
Some numbers:
Hitter AVG OPS
Davis .271 .832
Wilson .276 .703
Olerud .273 .785
Boone .291 .876
Guillen .298 .785
Cirillo .245 .652
Winn .289 .762
Cameron .286 .928
Ichiro .297 .737
Martinez .348 1.056
Cameron’s second on the team in OPS? Wow. Anyway, this all breaks down pretty nicely. Edgar is incredible, more or less carrying the offense. Cameron has been pretty darned good, especially for his position. Boone’s probably in that category, too. Then you’ve got a slew of guys — Davis, Wilson, Olerud, Guillen, Winn, Ichiro — who are basically average hitters. That’s good and it’s bad. Average hitters don’t hurt you, but they’re not exactly pushing you towards a championship, either. The M’s will probably have a decision to make on Guillen this winter along those same lines. You know what you’re going to get, and you know it’s not hurting you, but you have to decide if it’s good enough for a championship caliber team.
Another thing to note is here is that the M’s are getting classic “empty batting average” performances from quite a few hitters. Wilson, of course, just like he did last season. Olerud to a lesser extent since he’ll actually take a walk, but that .417 SLG is pretty pathetic for a 1B. He only has two homers this year, putting him on pace for 8 over the course of the season, after averaging 20 over the past 7 years. Guillen isn’t hitting for much power either, but I have no complaints with his offense so far this year. Ditto Boone. I’ll take a .876 OPS from my 2B every day of the week. Winn’s utter lack of power is a bit troubling as well, not that I expected him to hit for much pop this year. LF is really a position where you should be able to play a big bopper, almost regardless of defense, but it’s really not a surprise the M’s prefer a guy like Winn. Then there’s Ichiro, who pretty much defines the term “empty batting average.”
You’ll notice I haven’t mentioned Cirillo yet. I know people are getting all excited with his recent hot streak and his .245 average, but should that really be anything to write home about? The only reason he looks even passable right now is because he was so awful last year — and the beginning of this year — that people have lowered their expectations about him to zero. Hooray, he’s hitting .245. He also has a marginal walk rate (hello, .322 OBP) and can’t hit for even moderate power (just 5 extra base hits out of 16, or 19%, for a pathetic .330 SLG). Needless to say, I’m far from sold on this idea that Cirillo is “back.” Right now, even after this hot streak, his numbers this year are right in line with what he did last year, when we all labeled him a huge disappointment. In other words, he’s still a huge disappointment.
Speaking of huge disappointments, how about this Freddy Garcia character?
Minor League Highlights for Wednesday, May 14
Tacoma had the day off, along with the entire Pacific Coast League, but will return to action today in Edmonton. RHP Rafael Soriano is scheduled to start for the Rainiers.
San Antonio 8, Round Rock 5 (10 innings). The Missions blew a 5-1 leading heading into the bottom of the 8th, as they allowed Round Rock three in the 8th and one more in the 9th to tie, robbing LHP Bobby Madritsch (7 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 7 K) of a win. RHP Jared Hoerman, who blew the save, stuck around and picked up the win as San Antonio scored three in the top of the 10th. 2B Rob Gandolfo, taking advantage of a rare start, went 3-4 with a triple and scored three runs. CF Michael Curry, SS Luis Ugueto and 3B Justin Leone each had two hits, including Curry’s first homer of the year. DH Chris Snelling continued his slide, going 0-5 in the game. Kevin Goldstein of the Prospect Report notes that Snelling has just two hits in his last 16 at-bats. Perhaps most troubling, he — Snelling, not Kevin — has drawn only two walks in ten games.
Inland Empire 6, Rancho Cucamonga 5. LHP Ryan Ketchner was shaky (5 2/3 IP, 7 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 0 BB, 4 K), but picked up his 5th win of the year thanks to solid run support. Leading the way was 3B Hunter Brown, who homered, singled, walked, drove in three runs and scored twice. RF John Williamson added and RBI and two hits in four at-bats, while 1B John Castellano and CF/RF Greg Jacobs each scored twice. LHP Justin Blood picked up his first save of the year with an impressive long relief outing (2 2/3 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K). Blood now sports a 2.20 ERA with 23 K’s in 16 1/3 innings on the season. After the game, Williamson was released to make room on the roster for David Cameron’s favorite player, OF Cristian Guerrero (see the last post from yesterday for details).
Wisconsin 7, Lansing 3. LHP Bobby Livingston worked his longest start of the season (8 IP, 8 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 3 BB, 3 K) to pick up his 5th win and lower his ERA to 2.66. He has pitched quite well so far in his first taste of full-season ball, and won’t turn 21 until September. Offensively the Timber Rattlers were led by 1B Jon Nelson, who homered and drove in three runs, and RF T.J. Bohn, who doubled and scored twice. Every Wisconsin starter had at least one hit in the game, as the team took a 6-0 lead after three innings and then cruised to victory.
Truly Terrible Freddy (TM) showed up again, though he didn’t get a whole lot of help from his defense. 116 pitches in 6 innings against the second worst offense in the American League is troubling, though. If you can’t aggressively attack Casey Blake, than who can you pitch to?
In the fine tradition of Kenny Kelly and Papy Ndungidi, the Mariners claimed Cristian Guerrero off waivers from the Brewers today and assigned him to Inland Empire. Because he’s cousins with the Great Vlad in Montreal, he’s received quite a bit of attention during his career, though none of it has been warrented. He turned 23 last month and was posting a truly horrible .197/.216/.246 line at AA Huntsville. He’d drawn 3 walks against 28 strikeouts in 122 at-bats. He’s simply not going to develop into a major league player, but he’s now a member of the Mariners 40 man roster.
If there’s one good thing about claiming Guerrero, its that it gives me the opportunity to plug Brewerfan.net, one of the best team oriented websites out there. The guys over there set the standard for hard core fans, and even if you aren’t interested in the Brewers, you should check out their site.
I’m going to use game scores to try and show what’s happened.
Game score definition, from ESPN’s stat glossary page:
Start with 50 points. Add 1 point for each out recorded, (3 points per inning). Add 2 points for each inning completed after the 4th. Add 1 point for each strikeout. Subtract 2 points for each hit allowed. Subtract 4 points for each earned run allowed. Subtract 2 points for each unearned run allowed. Subtract 1 point for each walk.
Best score ever recorded was Kerry Wood’s 20k, 1-h performance, which got a 102, I think. A quality start (6 IP, 3R or less allowed) will get an average pitcher a game score around… 55. A 5 inning disaster start (allowing at least 1r/inning) will be around, oh, 30 or so.
I think game scores are kind of a dull tool, like much of Bill James’ little toys, but it works for this kind of large-scale thing:
The Fred-o-Tron, starting at possible injury time in late June
6/24 OAK -1
6/29 COL 70
7/4 MIN 67
7/14@TB 27
7/19@ANA 19
7/24 TEX 47
7/29 DET 55
8/3 CLE 62
8/9 @CWS 35
8/15 BOS 46
8/20@DET 31
8/25@CLE 53
8/30 KC 47
9/6 @KC 34
9/11@TEX 64
9/16 TEX 44
9/21 ANA 47
9/27@ANA 52 Aaand moving into 2003
4/1 @OAK 30
4/6 @TEX 57
4/11@TEX 40
4/16 OAK 60
4/22 CLE 54
4/27 DET 62
5/3 @CWS 64
5/8 NYY 7
Or, by bin, since 6/23:
Great, 65+: 2
Quality, 50-64: 10
Crappy, 35-49: 6
Disaster, 20-34: 5
Painfully bad, 0-19: 3
Now draw the line after the 7/4 game, which could put his injury at the All Star Game when Selig left him warming up for 3 hours:
Great: 0
Quality: 10
Crappy: 6
Disaster: 5
Painfully bad, 2
Of those quality starts, only the 9/11 TEX, 9/27 ANA, 4/6 TEX, and 4/16 OAK were against teams with above-average offensive units (okay, mayve the 5/3 CWS). And I think we could go even farther with this: in those starts, he didn’t get many Ks, except for the 9/11 @ Texas start, where he got 12k (6h, 1bb, 2hr in 7 IP). But even there: 3 of those Ks were Ruben Rivera, Juan Gonzalez didn’t play, and Mike Lamb was their DH that day. Which isn’t to say the Rangers were bad, but only that they weren’t fielding a murderer’s row that day.
I’m think it’s more likely now that I’ve looked this up that Freddy’s injured, and more likely that it was around the All Star Break. Since then I don’t see much evidence of Freddy being good anymore, his great starts missing entirely, and his decent starts coming almost entirely against bad teams.
Minor League Highlights for Super Tuesday, May 13
Oklahoma 7, Tacoma 2. RHP Ken Cloude’s struggles continued (6 IP, 8 H, 4 R, 3 ER, 0 BB, 4 K, 2 HR), as he was pegged with his third loss of the season against zero wins and now has a 6.58 ERA on the year. It can’t be long before he’s shifted to relief to make room for Rafael Soriano. RF Kenny Kelly, the topic of quite a bit of discussion behind the scenes here at the U.S.S. Mariner, doubled and homered in four at-bats. Still, he’s hitting a mere .222/.272/.357 on the year and actually appears to be going backwards in his development. Kelly has really only hit well once during his time in the organization, and even that was a breif stint in the Arizona Fall League two years ago.
San Antonio 7, Round Rock 1. RHP Rett Johnson nearly worked a complete game for the Missions, giving way to RHP Jared Hoerman with one out in the 9th. Instead, he had to settle for his fourth win on his best start of the season (8 1/3 IP, 8 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 12 K). I’m not certain, but I’m pretty sure those 12 Ks are tops in the minor league system this year for a single game. Offensively, SS Luis Ugeuto drove in four runs, and Michael Curry — looking more and more like a classic leadoff man with each passing game — drew four walks and stole his 20th base of the year. He also had a hit in his only official at-bat, scored once and drove in two. Curry is hitting a Jamal Strong-esque .309/.399/.403 on the season.
Rancho Cucamonga 2, Inland Empire 0. In what was a great pitching duel, the 66ers were shut out on seven hits, making a hard-luck loser of LHP Troy Cate (7 1/3 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 3 BB, 5 K). Despite his shiny 2.93 ERA, Cate now has a record of 2-4… how about getting the man some runs, eh boys? The game was scoreless through seven and a half innings before Cate allowed a pair of runs in the bottom of the 8th. LF Shin-soo Choo and SS Jay Pecci each had two hits for the 66ers. Choo has been particularly hot of late, and has his season line up to .285/.361/.492. A week or so ago, his average was down around .250.
Wisconsin 17, Lansing 7. In what must have been an ugly game to watch, the Timber Rattlers took advantage of nine Lansing errors — yes, NINE errors — on their way to a ten-run win. Nine of Wisconsin’s 17 runs were of the unearned variety and Lansing went through six pitchers to finish the game. RHP Juan Sandoval (5 IP, 9 H, 7 R, 5 ER, 2 BB, 5 K) picked up his first win of the year, though it’s hard to say he earned in. LHP Ryan Rowland-Smith — another guy who might deserve a shot in the rotation — pitched three scoreless innings (3 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 3 K) and now sports a 0.72 ERA. Offensively, 1B Jon Nelson and DH Cip Garcia each had three hits, including a double, a triple and a steal for Nelson, who scored four runs and drove in three. Garcia and C Rene Rivera also drove in three runs each, and RF TJ Bohn scored four runs.
I’m going to point back to your column on BP today.
It’s really the first time that my subjective view of a pitcher has so greatly swayed my objective view.
This is true, I think. Garcia hasn’t been erratic-crappy Freddy every single time out since last summer. In the four starts leading up to his pounding against the Yankees, he’d gone 26 1/3 innings with a 2.42 ERA. His season ERA going into the debacle last week was 3.83. On September 11 of last year, during his second collapse, he pitched 7 innings in Texas, giving up 3 runs on 6 hits, walking 1, and striking out 12.
If Garcia had gone in the tank since a certain date and stayed there, I’d be more inclined to agree with you. But we’ve seen flashes of the old Freddy this year and we saw flashes of him during the second half of last year. We just get Truly Terrible Freddy a lot more than we used to.
Garcia’s currently an underachiever, and no one likes an underachiever. I think this may be a situation where our emotional response is overriding the objective analysis too much. If Freddy can pitch well for four consecutive starts with even a minor injury and dominate a pretty good Texas line-up in the middle of a pennant race, than he’s a rather impressive human being.