I’m going to take Jason one step further;
If Willie Bloomquist was black and from New York, there wouldn’t be 4 people in Seattle who cared about him. He’d be Charles Gipson, a widely recognized scrub who got cheers for running hard but everyone realized had no business as a major league player.
Bloomquist’s entire reputation as anything resembling a major league player is based on the fact that he grew up near Seattle and looks just like Joe Fan.
Oh, and one more thing; It was the Tampa Bay Devil Rays, folks. Willie got his hits today off Rob Bell and his 7.36 ERA (who replaced Jason Standridge, he of the 7.03 ERA). The kid still can’t hit major league pitching, and he’ll never have anything resembling the career Jeff Cirillo has had. Despite his problems, Cirillo is still the better player.
Folks, I’d just like to remind you that Willie Bloomquist is not a very good baseball player. I know there’s going to be all sorts of crazy talk after the three games he started this weekend — to be fair, he was good at the plate and in the field — but that doesn’t erase a pretty poor minor league career.
Jermaine Clark just went back to the Rangers. I’m not a great fan of Clark — in fact, I laughed when it was suggested that he’d have been an upgrade on Mike Young for the Rangers — but lemme see, he hits a little, can play a little defense. He’s like a not-as-good Jiminez, almost, another useful player the Mariners could really have used and let go through the waivers. I know Gillick’s concerned about the feelings of Willy Bloomquist, but let me say this: under no circumstances should the feelings of Willy Bloomquist prevent the team from trying to improve.
I’m on vacation next week, but before I go I wanted to let a bit of steam off: I write about the Mariners and baseball because I like to. I try to offer some original insight when I can, and at least be amusing even when I’m not the most orignal. I like to explore topics that get in my craw, and sometimes that means I find all kinds of weird stuff. As a result, though, I am fed heaping plates of crap by a certain segment of readers. I’ll give you an example:
– on Prospectus, I wrote a Playoff Preview of the Twins v A’s series, and picked the wrong side
– many people wrote me (after the Twins won) to tell me I was an idiot
– I then wrote a column where I talked about how I went about writing the piece, where I thought it was wrong in retrospect, and where I’d been going along the right vein but things didn’t go as I’d thought they would. I thought it was really good, and explained a lot about the folly of trying to make predictions in general and short series predictions in particular
– many more people then wrote me to tell me I was a cowardly idiot who wouldn’t stand behind my predictions
I have no respect for these people. This is a large reason why there’s little quality dialogue about anything in the country: I can’t say “Hey, I said this last week and I’ve been thinking about it some more, and I’ve decided that’s too simplisitic. Here’s the other things I thought of” without having people dance around and say na-na-na, you admit you were wrong, even if that’s not the point at all. In terms of dealing with feedback, I’m actually better off coming up with some wildly wrong theory and then defending it to the death rather than continuing to spend any time thinking or looking for interesting tangents that can prove me wrong. But the hard path is the path to enlightenment, and it’s the only one I’m interested in taking.
So if you’re going to read my stuff here, and you’re not down with an ongoing, informal search for knowledge, where I’m going to be wrong, semi-wrong, half-right, and sometimes totally and wonderously correct and accurate all at once, go buy Ann Coulter’s “Treason” and don’t read my stuff. I’m not your author.
But for the rest of you — you’re the ones I’m writing for, and I’d buy you all a beer if I could.
Derek and I went to the game last night, so you know a good time was had. In any event, I feel compelled to point out a very surprising move Box Melvin made last night — but one I agree with 100%. In fact, it was such a good move I’m giving it my full endorsement. One day after I bitched about Box hitting red-hot Ben Davis 9th, Davis was hitting 5th last night! Even better, he went 2-3 with a walk. Davis, in case you’re wondering, is now hitting a robust .302/.342/.503 and 44% of his hits this season have gone for extra bases.
At the same time, I must also complain about Mark McLemore hitting 2nd yet again. Ichiro has been getting on base like it’s going out of style this month (July OBP: .436), but this on base-i-ness is being wasted by the likes of McLemore and Randy Winn hitting behind him. Carlos Guillen, we never knew we’d miss you this much… get well soon! Seriously, I would have rather seen Ben Davis hitting 2nd than McLemore or Winn. John Mabry started at 1B last night, which an entirely different issue, but is no less troublesome.
I also think it’s time we start bracing ourselves for the reality that the M’s are not going to improve the team at the trading deadline. Gillick’s comments lately — not to mention his history — point towards the status quo, however silly it may be to cling to the likes of Willie Bloomquist, Randy Winn and the rotting corpse of Mark McLemore. This team still needs a slugging LF, a decent middle infielder on the bench and perhaps even a starting pitcher, but chances are they won’t add even one of those three pieces. Remember, the M’s are built on “pitching and defense,” have “budgetary contraints” and are already a “pretty good” team.
Speaking of people who are at it again, ladies and gentleman, Felix Hernandez is the man.
Coming into tonight’s start against Tri-City, he’d tossed 12 innings, allowed 9 hits, 1 run, walked 5, and struck out 17. That’s a 0.75 ERA. His ERA would have led the league had he qualified, and he was tied for the league lead in wins. In 3 appearances, he’d won 3 games. Doesn’t get much better than that.
Well, apparently, it does. Hernandez tonight:
5 innings, 1 hit, 0 runs, 2 walks, 9 strikeouts. That brings his season ERA to 0.53, folks. His K/9 is now 13.76, second only in the NWL to Rich Hill, who is 23-years-old. Hernandez is 6 years younger than Hill.
The M’s have a legitimate phenom on their hands. You don’t want to get too excited about performances in short-season leagues, but this kid is for real.
The Box is at it again.
First, he hits Ben Davis (.282/.320/.486) 9th tonight, with Mark McLemore (.222/.308/.324) 7th. Davis is 3-for-3 so far, while McLemore is 0-3. Bat Davis 7th, and perhaps the M’s score a few runs in the 6th rather than just one.
Then, he uses Aaron (a-run) Taylor in an unfamiliar fashion, bringing him in to get the last out of an inning and then sending him back out to start a new inning. Sure enough, he gave up a some hits and a pair of runs. I’m probably making too big a deal out of this one, but this isn’t the role Taylor is used to. (That said, his stuff looks pretty good — I think he can easily take Jeff Nelson’s spot next season.)
Greg Colbrunn is back on the DL. Luis Ugueto is back in the majors. Our bench is, once again, the worst in baseball history.
Oh, and the current rumor-du-jour is that the M’s have inquired into the availability of Jose Guillen. The Reds will almost certainly trade him, since he’s in the middle of a monster career year and is a free agent at years end. With Dunn, Kearns, and Griffey, he doesn’t fit into Cincinatti’s future, and he’s hitting the cover off the baseball. He also makes peanuts this year, meaning he’ll fit into the M’s budget.
Unfortunately, he’s a right-handed hitter with a career OBP of .314. His plate discipline is awful, and the Reds are going to ask for two good arms in exchange. As much as I’d like to see another bat here, I don’t want to give up Soriano, Nageotte, Johnson, or Blackley to get a hack like Guillen who could easily fall apart.
Despite your brilliant statistical study of Mr. Box, I still find myself griping about pitcher usage. Melvin went to Arthur Rhodes with a 6-1 lead in the 8th tonight, then to Jeff Nelson with a 6-3 lead two batters later. What baffled me the most, however, was his decision to bring in Shigetoshi Hasegawa to face David Segui. Nelson had control of both his fastball and slider and had been effective, getting a grounder and a flyball from the two batters he faced. And suddenly you need Hasegawa — supposedly the team’s new closer, which is odd given that Box used him in the 8th — to retire David Segui?
Hasegawa didn’t retire Segui, as we all know, and suddenly the score was 6-5. Personally, I would have stuck with Rafael Soriano. He had a 6-1 lead, and the two runners on with no outs really aren’t a huge deal when you consider his stuff (fastball/slider) is perfect for getting strikeouts and grounders. I also think it’s important to let Soriano pitch meaningful innings and work his way out of the jam he created, too.
For reference, here’s the top of the 8th inning:
-Melvin Mora walked.
-Jeff Conine singled to right, Mora to second.
-Arthur Rhodes relieved Rafael Soriano.
-Jay Gibbons singled to left, Mora scored, Conine to second.
-Tony Batista popped out to third.
-BJ Surhoff singled to shallow left, Conine to third, Gibbons to second.
-Jeff Nelson relieved Rhodes.
-Deivi Cruz reached on infield single to second, Conine and Gibbons scored, Surhoff to second.
-Brook Fordyce flied out to right.
-David Segui hit for Brian Roberts.
-Shigetoshi Hasegawa relieved Nelson.
-Segui singled to left center, Surhoff scored, Cruz to second.
-Jose Morban ran for Segui.
-Luis Matos flied out to right.
Side note: How weak is Randy Winn’s throwing arm? The throw he made when Mora scored on Gibbons’ single was from short left, and he didn’t get anything on it at all. It wasn’t even a close play, and it sould have been, given that Mora (and his 3B coach) decided pretty late to head for home rather than stay at third.
Box Melvin, a statistical study
It’s instructive to compare Melvin to his predecessor and look for differences.
Pitching
Last year, there were 505 appearances by Mariner pitchers in 162 games, an average of 3.1 pitcher appearances/game.
This year, there have been 279 appearances by Mariner pitchers in 87 games, an average of 3.2 pitcher appearances/game.
So for all our griping about reliever usage patterns, it’s not as if Melvin’s using significantly more pitchers every game. He’s just using them differently:
| Who | 2002 IP/G | 2003 IP/G |
| Rhodes | 1.1 | .9 |
| Nelson | 1.1 | .8 |
| Hasegawa | 1.3 | 1.2 |
Where’s he getting the IPs to make up for the difference? Moyer, Garcia are both getting an out more an inning, we don’t have the James Baldwin Experiment going 5 innings every few games, and Pineiro’s been out of the pen. For how long he was on the roster. Mateo’s been up longer and working more, and sopping up almost 2 IP/appearance. Carrara was averaging almost an inning and a third while he was up.
Here’s the big difference between Melvin and Piniella through the first half of the season: only five pitchers have made starts for the team, and none of them have made bullpen appearances. Piniella, as you’ll recall, jerked Pineiro in and out of the bullpen early last season, where Melvin has done a lot of subtle rotation position swapping, ordering the team essentially by weighting in-season performance against historical talent (Moyer-Meche-Pineiro-Franklin-Garcia), and avoided moving the pitchers between the rotation and the bullpen. Give Melvin some credit for this — the pitchers (the starters, certainly) must feel secure in knowing what they’re being asked to do and what their contribution to the team is.
Pitching Tactics
One of the things that’s been overlooked about Melvin is that he will not issue the free pass, which we should applaud him for. It’s a dumb move with only limited use that’s pulled out all too often by the advocates of small ball and over-managing. The Mariners have only issued 11 so far this year and are dead last in this category. League leader is Toronto, with 29, and Texas has given 28. Lou used to give one about every fifth game. Melvin’s one in eight, and that’s a significant difference.
Equally interesting is the team’s increase in caught stealing rates. They’ve gone from 35% to 41%, and every out is also a runner wiped off the paths. Oh yeah. This is entirely Ben Davis, though — he’s gunning down 46% of baserunners, up from 44% last year. The other half of this ill catching platoon, Dan Wilson, has thrown out 33% this year, which is up from last year’s even worse 28%. If you wanted another reason the team should play Davis at least two-thirds of the time, there you go… and this is another point against the Box.
Lineups
I discard the notion that set lineups are valuable. There’s no real correlation between lineup frequency and team strength. So I’m going to ignore that, though it’d be easy to say “Piniella turned in 100 lineup cards, Melvin 12” (not actual numbers).
In 2002, we saw 10.8 lineup players/game. In 2003 so far, we’ve only seen 10.2 players a game. It’s interesting to note that Melvin, reputed to be a NL-style manager, is not as big about in-game substitution as Piniella, who… well, he was also frequently noted for being an NL-style manager. While I’m at it, though, that whole distinction is bunk anyway.
Further, we’ve seen a lot less in-position flexibility. Players who’ve appeared at more than 1 position:
McLemore, LF-3b-SS-2b
Bloomquist, LF-RF-3b-SS-2b
Mabry, LF-RF-1b
Winn, LF-CF-RF
By the end of 2002, we’d seen both Wilson and Davis at first, and by my count, 82 outfields including the University of Washington Marching Band.
This tails nicely on what we’ve seen from Melvin on the pitching side: you’re my starter, and you’re my left fielder. Melvin does have the luxury of Winn, a nominal regular left fielder that Piniella did not, but at the same time we should recognize that this is part of his comfort-and-security campaign to make his players like him.
In Game Tactics
What I’m about to say might shock you… Melvin doesn’t steal as much. In 2002, the M’s made 195 stolen base attempts, and were successful on 70%. To break even, you want to be at 75%, though there are other factors involved, and the traditional mark is 66%. Melvin’s team is stealing bases at a 74% rate right now — 78 attempts, 58 steals. He’s also trying to steal less: the team’s going after .9 bases/game, while last year Piniella the riverboat gambler had his team trying 1.2 steals/game — that’s a huge difference.
What’s more, check this out: Ichiro is 23-6 so far, on pace for, uhh… 43-11, which would be way up from last year’s 31-15. I still think he was injured at the end of last year: he just wasn’t as fast or as aggressive. Meanwhile Cameron went 31-8 last year, and this year he’ll end up around 13-7. Winn’s gone 15-2 on pace for 28-4, making McLemore’s 2002 18-10 look terrible. Boone’s 7-1 already, last year he was 12-5 on the season. Or, look at this way:
Top 5 M’s in % of team stolen base attempts, 2003
Ichiro, 37%
Winn, 22%
Cameron, 14%
Boone, 10%
McLemore, 6%
— total 89% of team SB attempts
Top 5 M’s in % of team stolen base attempts, 2002
Ichiro, 24%
Cameron, 20%
McLemore, 14%
Boone, 9%
Relaford, 7%
— total 73% of team SB attempts
Where Piniella would have anyone steal if the impulse struck, Melvin’s concentrating on a few, high-percentage guys and having them run rampant.
Sacrifice hits. I honestly think the stats fail here. Melvin’s got 21 sac hits, on pace for 39. Last year the M’s had 41 all season. I think if I was able to locate a stat for bunt attempts, though, Melvin would bury Piniella. Sometimes the limitations of stats are as frustrating as the limitations of observation.
And the big finish
I’ve learned a lot here. It’s easy to focus on Box Melvin’s crappy in-game management choices or his crappy bullpen management, but the statistics reveal some things we might not otherwise notice. Bob Melvin, the smart guy we heard so much about, shows up here — the reluctance to give up the free pass, the concentration on high-precentage baserunning by players who can pull it off. The stability he’s tried to bring shows up in the number of players we see in a game: all told, in an average M’s game you’ll see 3.2 pitchers and 10.2 batters — 13.4 M’s taking the field, whereas a 2002 M’s game you’d get… 3.1 + 10.8… 13.9 M’s. An extra substitution/game, that’s significant over a season.
Here’s the optimistic viewpoint: Melvin’s reasonably smart, and he has goals in mind for how he wants to run the team, and operates toward those goals. Some of those goals are good: stability, team cohesion, make high-percentage plays. And some of them are bad: protect leads at all costs, use bullpen relievers more situationally and less to their ability, bunt runners along (et cetera). Of the latter, while we’re likely to have to live with the philosophy, it’s possible that someone’s going to straighten him out about workload and bullpen management, one of the areas managers can have a great effect, and it’s possible that Melvin will call someone smart up and talk to them about in-game strategies. And if all that happens, huzzah!
Maybe someone can give him a copy of Earl Weaver’s book.
From the Seattle Times:
“Meche, who has had two shoulder surgeries, is experiencing increasing soreness in his arm the last few starts. He downplayed the soreness and is doing exercises to minimize the problem. He had been fairly consistent all season, allowing three runs or fewer in 11 of his previous 16 starts.
Meche said he’ll use the three-day All-Star break to relax and get away from baseball. Pitching coach Bryan Price said Meche would start the second or third game after the break, so he could go six days between starts.”