Mmm… Armando Benitez.
I have to echo Dave’s sentiments on this one. It’s a bummer that Jeff Nelson was shipped off because of his comments last week, but the M’s really did wind up with a better pitcher after all was said and done (as well as some cash to line the pockets of Misters Armstrong and Lincoln). Have a look at their career lines:
Pitcher Age ERA H/9IP BB/9IP K/9IP HR/9IP AVG/OBP/SLG
Benitez 30 3.03 6.03 4.79 11.83 1.04 188/295/323
Nelson 36 3.29 7.21 4.76 9.59 0.60 222/327/328
Both have their respective problems with walks, but Benitez blows Nelson away in pretty much every other category. I know some people are worried about Benitez’ reputation as a headcase and choker in big games, but let’s be honest here — Nelson isn’t exactly the most reliable guy either. We’ve all seen him lose his control on the mound, get totally rattled, and then shelled by the opposing team. And it’s not as if he was Mr. Automatic during his two stints as closer this season.
So… good job M’s, even if you made this move for the wrong reasons.
With Jeff Nelson gone, time for a special edition of
Derek’s Rate Stats of Doom
Dude outs abf h% hr% bb% k%
Joel Pineiro 455 636 19.3% 1.4% 9.1% 16.4%
Ryan Frankli 440 608 21.7% 4.3% 5.9% 10.9%
Jamie Moyer 437 613 21.2% 2.3% 7.5% 15.2%
Freddy Garci 412 610 24.6% 3.8% 7.9% 14.6%
Gil Meche 407 582 22.2% 3.4% 7.9% 16.8%
Julio Mateo 168 223 20.2% 4.9% 4.5% 22.4%
S. Hasegawa 158 207 19.8% 1.0% 3.9% 10.6%
Arthur Rhode 128 179 20.7% 1.7% 7.8% 20.7%
Jeff Nelson 113 161 21.1% 1.9% 8.7% 29.2%
Soriano 83 105 15.2% 1.0% 5.7% 34.3%
Kazu 59 85 22.4% 1.2% 8.2% 24.7%
Aaron Taylor 38 61 27.9% 0.0% 9.8% 14.8%
Aaron Looper 3 4 0.0% 0.0% 25.0% 50.0%
Leaders, good sense: hits Soriano, HRs Soriano, walks Hasegawa, K Soriano
Leders, bad sense: hits Taylor (Garcia), HRs Mateo (still), walks Taylor (Pineiro)
You can see Soriano’s astounding stats are due a little to excellent defense he’s had behind him, but also because he’s awesome. I’m not sure the team needed to pick up Benitez — they’ve got more good right-handed relievers than I have ties.
I’d also like to point out that having the Box stick to traditional roles and putting not-the-best-reliever in as the ‘closer’ can allow (without him realizing it) a better pen to develop, with superior non-closer types pitching the just-as-important middle innings.
This just in: The Mariners traded Jeff Nelson for Armando Benitez.
This is the rarest of trades; two contenders, in the same league, with a good chance of facing each other in the playoffs (and a matchup against each other this weekend), swapping players who are both likely to play fairly prominant roles in that potential playoff series. Make no mistake, this is a message trade. Had Jeff Nelson not criticized Mariners ownership last week, he would still be a Mariner. This would not a trade that was explored because of on-field performance (more on that below), but simply one to show the players who was in charge. Criticize the boss and you’ll be shown the door. This is a power play by ownership/management.
However, in the process of showing the team who is in charge, they stumbled over their own feet and ended up with a better pitcher. Nelson’s 3.35 ERA hides the fact that he allows inherited runners to score at astounding rates. Michael Wolverton’s reliever reports show that Nelson has allowed 6 runs more than an average major league pitcher this season. The only worse Mariner reliever in 2003 has been Giovanni Carrara. Of the current bullpen, Nelson was clearly the worst pitcher.
Benitez isn’t great, being worth about 6 runs more than the average pitcher so far, and he’s got serious control issues. He’s an improvement on Nelson, however. The key will be for Melvin to stick with what he has; Benitez isn’t as good as Hasegawa, Rhodes, Soriano, or the recent version of Julio Mateo. If the Box can ignore the feeling to use Benitez in the 9th inning of close games because he’s “a proven closer”, then this could be a good acquisition for the M’s.
However, let us not lose site of the fact that this is not a baseball trade.
Last week, I promised an update on negotiations with 15th-round-pick (and 2nd round talent) Soctt Maine after his visit to Safeco Field and contract offer from the Mariners. Rather than just providing an update, here is the final story, including the unhappy ending, just to give context.
Scott Maine was considered a late-1st/early-2nd round talent going into the draft. For various reasons, however, he slid on draft day, as teams were unwilling to take the repercussions that come with paying over slot money in a later round. Before the 15th round began, the Mariners placed a call to Maine, asking if he would sign for 2nd round money if they selected him with their next pick. He confirmed that he would, and the Mariners selected him. This isn’t an oral contract, but there was obviously reason for optimism from Maine’s family. The organization showed interest, threw out a range, and Scott agreed to that number, and then they then selected him.
Maine held firm on his request for 2nd round money during the entire negotaiting process, while his status was put on hold as the Mariners signed their priority picks. At the end of July, the M’s asked Scott to come to Seattle, visit Safeco Field, and meet face to face where they would offer him a contract.
Maine flew to Seattle last week and threw a bullpen session for several M’s officials, including assistant GM Roger Jongewaard, scouting director Frank Mattox, and pitching coach Bryan Price. He felt okay about the session, though it wasn’t overwhelming. Upon its conclusion, the Mariners presented an offer for a little over $400,000. This amount is less than what 3rd round pick Ryan Feierabend received, and about 25 % less than what a 2nd round slot bonus would be. Scott wasn’t holding out for the moon, and would have agreed to a contract for less than slot, as long as it was still in the 2nd round range. The Mariners didn’t come close to that number, and have convinced Scott Maine that he would be better off playing for free at the University of Miami than to come up through the Mariners organization.
The junior college draft-and-folllow process would have been an option, but the Mariners handled negotations so poorly that he has no interest in signing, will take his scholarship to Miami and be drafted by someone else in 3 years.
This isn’t the first time the Mariners have misled and strung out players, and their reputation is not a good one. Getting drafted by the Mariners now means a summer of contentious negotiations, while you sort through the half-truths and wonder exactly why the organization selected you in the first place.
Whether Pat Gillick returns as General Manager or not, it is time to make a change at the scouting director position. With any luck, Frank Mattox has overseen his last draft with the Seattle Mariners. He’s already cost us John Mayberry, Eddy Esteve, and now Scott Maine, none leaving with kind things to say about the organization. It is time for a change.
Today’s first-inning gem: Fairly, ignoring the insanity of batting Rey Sanchez #2 (as close as I remember it): “I don’t think enough has been said about the acquisition of Rey Sanchez. The Mariners needed (blah blah blah…). Sanchez plays a solid shortstop, and he can hit, too. He didn’t hit so well this year with the Mets, but he didn’t the chance to play very much, either.”
Readers know I’m pro-Sanchez in the role of defensive stopgap, but batting him #2 is crazy. And can he hit? Tossing out 2003, as Ron would have you do, Sanchez’ career line is .275/.311/.338. Sure, he can hit… in a strict-constructionist sort of sense, as in “sometimes, Sanchez can get a hit”.
Still, batting Sanchez #2 demonstrates another of Box Melvin’s issues: once he’s set up something (like a batting order), he’s loathe to change it. If Guillen was #2, and Guillen’s injured, then more than likely Guillen’s replacement bats #2, unless he flips Winn back to #2 and then… you see how this goes. Clearly there are better options for the #2 spot, but for the sake of consistency, et cetera, Melvin’s got Sanchez #2 so everyone else can stay put.
I see a lot of posts out there in the wild advocating sending Freddy Garcia to Tacoma to work out his problems. This can’t happen.
Freddy came up in 1999, and has four full years of service time where he’s been on the 25-man major league roster, injured or not. A player only has three option years, where the team can send him up and down as many times as they want.
If the team attempts to send Freddy down, Freddy would have three choices:
– accept the assignment
– refuse the assignment
– become a free-agent
This is all in the CBA at XIX(A)(2)(b), Consent to Assignment (and options are contained in the Major League Rules, 11(c), which you’re not supposed to be able to get a hold of, cough cough). Now, no one knows which option he picks, but the team’s already on the hook for $millions, so they’re not going to take the chance that Freddy gets that money *and* pitches for someone else, leaving them nothing (Doug Davis did this this year, refusing an assignment in Toronto and signing a new deal elsewhere). Or Freddy could refuse to go to Tacoma. And then there’s waivers, and any team can pick him up (or the Mariners can revoke waivers if someone claims him, leaving Freddy back on the ML roster).
The team could also DL him, people say. But if it’s not a real injury, Freddy can protest and there’s a host of problems there. Freddy can also refuse the DL assignment, which requires his written consent, even if he is injured (Carlos Beltran did this a while back).
In the house: An updated Big Board. Enjoy.
Also, thanks to everyone who emailed last week to offer their condolences on the passing of my niece.
For a lot of people reading this site, and me included, Rob Neyer has been a staple of our baseball reading over the years. I started reading when his column was called Chin Music and he was cutting edge. He was different. He was new. Tonight, before heading to bed, I surfed over and saw that Rob had actually posted a new column, which is something of a change nowadays. So, I read it. And I realized why I haven’t really worried that he’s no longer a big part of my daily reading. From today’s piece:
The move hardly anybody missed came last Thursday, when GM Billy Beane pulled off yet another of his %#@&-A trades, sending minor-league pitchers Aaron Harang and Joe Valentine to Cincinnati for outfielder Jose Guillen. While Harang and Valentine are both decent prospects, Harang is 25, Valentine’s a career reliever, and anyway the A’s have no shortage of talented minor-league pitchers. Guillen, meanwhile, was hitting .337 with 23 homers in only 91 games with the Reds.
Stuff like this just bugs me. Rob Neyer has a lot of clout, and a large amount of people assume that when he makes comments like that, he’s right, or he’s stating so on information that we may not have. But unfortunately, he’s not right, and his comment about the A’s depth of minor league pitching couldn’t be a whole lot further from the truth.
Unless you consider Rich Harden a minor league pitcher (which you shouldn’t, because he’ll never see the minors again unless he’s rehabbing), the A’s don’t have one front line pitching prospect. Not one. Clint Nageotte, Travis Blackley, Rett Johnson, and Felix Hernandez would all instantly become their best arm on the farm. Here’s a quick look at what they do have:
Justin Duchscherer, RHP, AAA: The A’s got Duchscherer from the Rangers a couple of years ago, and the strike throwing machine is having his best year as a pro, posting a 2.92 ERA and an 11/93 BB/K for Sacramento. Unfortunately, he throws a Jamie Moyer fastball without Jamie Moyer’s intelligence. Remember Greg Wooten, anyone?
Mike Wood, RHP, AAA: Draws comparisons to Tim Hudson because, well, the A’s drafted him. He’s got average stuff across the board, keeps the ball down, and doesn’t strike many people out. He throws strikes, so he might be a useful 4th starter someday, but he’s not exactly going to be banging down the door to any Top 100 lists anytime soon.
John Rheinecker, LHP, AAA: Despite having a miserable season in AA, the A’s promoted him to Sacramento, where he got rocked in his debut, because he’s 24 years old and was a first round pick in 2001. Unfortunately, he hasn’t pitched like one, and is now projecting as a John Halama type long reliever. He has a decent curve ball, an average change, and a below average fastball. His command is average at best. He’s a really expensive version of Troy Cate.
Joe Blanton, RHP, AA: Blanton finally got moved to AA after putting up some gaudy numbers in the Midwest League against people half his age. Okay, thats an exaggeration, but there wasn’t any reason for Blanton to spend half a year in low-A ball. He’s probably the A’s best pitching prospect, at this point, even though he doesn’t have an out pitch and his stuff is average across the board. He throws strikes and knows how to pitch, but he’s not a front-of-the-rotation starter.
There’s also a few other fun guys to root for like Shane Komine, who is likely about as tall as your mother, but hot shot prospects they aren’t.
Put simply, the A’s farm system just isn’t very good right now, and Billy Beane badly misses Grady Fuson. But, he’s Billy Beane, right? He must be about to make another $!&%# trade for a guy with a lifetime .310 on base percentage.
Hey everybody, Derek here. I know in our continual blasting of Box and Pat we’ve neglected the minor league side a little, as Bob Mong (who also has a fine little blog) writes us. So here’s my thoughts on the state of the high-level system:
Tacoma — Rett Johnson is tearing up the PCL (1.80 ERA, 40k, 14bb), and I wish that I had drafted him in my fantasy league’s minor league portion (I was scared off by the shoulder soreness), but the rest of the rotation isn’t that promising, in terms of possible guys with stuff that would survive the step up into the major league rotation. They’ve got some relievers (JJ Putz, for instance, moved over from starting last year). On the hitting side, Jamal Strong’s not putting up a .400 OBP this year (.350ish) and CHRIS SNELLING, Official Outfield Prospect of the U.S.S. Mariner, has been smoking the ball since his promotion: .355/.432/.677 in his 9 games as I write this. Now, we haven’t seen or talked to Snelling lately (I’m working on that), but it would seem he’s baa-aaa-aaa-aaack (AC/DC style, though the Rainiers don’t have black uniforms).
San Antonio — Justin Leone continues to get a screwing from the team, his red-hot hitting at AA earning him little notice. If they’re going to play no-hit Bloomquist, maybe Leone’d be worth a trial as the backup cornerman the team needs (and that Mabry is not). LHP Travis Blackley’s stellar (2.21 ERA, 123K, 54bb) and so’s RHP Clint Nageotte (2.66 ERA, 132K, 57BB). And LHP Bobby Madritsch (3.47 ERA, 122K, 57BB) has done okay for himself as well.
Putting that together with what we know about the team, etc… here’s the 2004 Mariner outlook:
Pitching
Freddy leaves for sure, and probably Franklin as well, as his contract’s up after this year. Meche may have broken down by then (hopefully not, but let’s be realistic), and the team in spring training will have at least four great young ML-ready pitchers to compete for the jobs: RHPs Soriano, Johnson, and Nageotte, and LHP Blackley. I hate to say things like this, but if the M’s can keep these guys healthy, they’ll have one of the best (and youngest) 1-5 rotations any team can field. Now, the bullpen’s going to fall apart, it’s expensive and wacky, and whether the Mariners fill it in with Mateo-and-company or spend a lot on veteran filler remains to be seen.
Lineup
The Mariners will pursue Matsui. They’re huge into foreign players like this, and he’s a monster talent that would replace the fragile Guillen at short. If they get him, hoowah. Snelling replaces Winn in left. Cirillo competes against, uh, his contract for a job at third. Olerud’s signed through 2004, which is probably going to look worse then than it does even now, but it’s not as if the organization has huge bats challenging him. Cameron will almost certainly leave through free agency, as the team’s never appreciated what they have in him, and will be replaced by Doug Glanville or a reasonable facsimilie thereof. If Edgar leaves, the DH slot’s also going to have some schmuck slapped in to fill it. McLemore will leave.
If they get Matsui and make some decent acquisitions to fill CF/DH/the bullpen, this will be an exciting and competitive team I will love to go see.
If they don’t get Matsui and make bad signings to fill CF/DH/the bullpen, this is a 80-win team with some good young talent.
Or combine possibilities to taste.
Seattle Times, Paper of Quality: Part 2 in a continuing series. Acting on a hot reader tip from James Trumbull: Steve Kelley refers to Oakland’s newly acquired Jose Guillen as being a left-handed power-hitting outfielder. Jose Guillen is right-handed. Good job, Steve! Only a couple more months treading water before basketball starts up again!