Hey, if I’ve done this right, I’ve just uploaded the latest greatest version of Dave’s Future Forty. Dave, if you’re not already aware of this, is a prospect maven. Also ladies, he’s available, unlike Dan Wilson, Ben Davis, et cetera.
I don’t understand why Dan Wilson is invulnerable to criticism, why so many people seem to think that you’re a jerk if you mention he can’t throw out baserunners any more, that his defensive reputation is so far beyond reality it’s crazy, and that he can’t hit. I know Dan’s a great guy, but he’s stinking up the joint this season, and Ben Davis is a huge upgrade.
I don’t understand why people seem to think that somehow Dan’s entitled to start most of the M’s games and sometime in the future hand over duties to Ben. Ben’s no spring chicken anymore — he’s at what we’d expect his peak to be, and he’s hitting like it. He’s playing great defense, and gunning down base-stealers.
The team needs to win games and bury Oakland this year, and play the best possible lineup in the playoffs. Ben Davis should be starting two-thirds of the team’s games, more or less, trying to spot Wilson against the lefties he’s hit well historically, especially against teams without a lot of speed.
And, in the interest of trying to stem my reputation as being a total depressive about the team:
Things I Like About the 2003 Mariners
Good players (Edgar, Boone, Cameron, Ichiro, Moyer, Pineiro, Meche, Franklin), the future of Rafael Soriano, endorsed prospects — Rett Johnson, Chris Snelling, etc., Safeco Field.
If you didn’t think the game had passed Pat Gillick by last week, you will now. Wow.
I’m not going to jump on the Box for today’s usage. I think it was “get guys work” day. With an offday tommorrow and a series full of blowouts, the “A” group of relievers hadn’t pitched much lately.
It will be interesting to see how the roles shift when Kaz returns this week. Hasegawa/Soriano/Mateo may be Group B, but you’d be hard pressed to find three better relief pitchers in the AL right now. Hopefully, Box O’ Rocks doesn’t waste them in low-leverage situations.
Seattle Times, Paper of Quality: You’ll note that on the front page of the sports section, Steve Kelley’s column includes Steve using “it’s” as a possessive when the possessive form of it is its, with no apostrophe. “It’s” is a contraction of it is. Way to go, Steve!
I’m dinking around with my next BP column and thought I’d share something. Here’s how many pitches it takes a Mariner starter to record an out:
Franklin, 4.8
Meche, 5.2
Pineiro, 5.3
Moyer, 5.5
Garcia, 5.6
That’s obviously an interesting but weird stat of not a ton of use. And yet — say you want each of these guys to go six innings. 18 outs…
Franklin’s thrown 87 pitches
Meche has thrown 94 pitches and I’m already yelling for him to get pulled
Pineiro’s at 95 pitches and I’m nervous
Moyer’s at 98 pitches and last,
Freddy’s at 101 pitches.
It omits a lot of stuff — how they’re getting defensive support (hit = have to face another batter), and so on. And it’s obviously not a measure of dominance, since it doesn’t tell you anything about how they’re getting the outs. But you can see something here that we’ve commented on earlier in the year: while Franklin’s not the most effective pitcher in the world, he’s so efficient with his pitches that he’s able to help the team in an entirely different way by going later into games.
Box Melvin’s amazing bullpen management continues: he had Rhodes warm up for a while then relieve Nelson to face *one batter* throwing *one pitch* and then pulled Rhodes, with a six run lead, to put in Hasegawa.
Rhodes and Nelson’s bullpen: mound ratio of pitches thrown must be 5:1 at this point in the season.
And another thing — given Meche’s tendency this season to fall apart suddenly late in the game as his pitch count increases, why did the Box leave him in so long with Soriano warm and Meche obviously struggling?
Rafael Soriano has arrived. His line for his last 10 appearances:
15 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 22 K, 0.59 ERA.
The M’s should give him a start next week, regardless of whether they’re sending Freddy to the pen.
For that matter, look at Julio Mateo since July 1st:
24 IP, 14 H, 5 R, 1 BB, 25 K, 1.88 ERA.
I mean, geez.
Diagnosing Freddy
We haven’t been all that kind to Truly Terrible Freddy over the past few months, and it appears that the Freddy Garcia bandwagon now has as many members as the Bud Selig fan club. The theories being passed around about his struggles range from tipping pitches to an overactive nightlife. After a glance through his splits, though, it seems that Garcia has one major problem that has accounted for nearly all of his dropoff from the previous two seasons: Left-handers.
2003
Right/Left AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB HBP SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
vs. Right 267 91 66 15 1 8 26 18 4 54 2 3 .247 .302 .401 .703
vs. Left 276 0 84 13 0 15 55 30 5 35 1 1 .304 .375 .514 .890
2002
Right/Left AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB HBP SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
vs. Right 392 110 104 18 1 13 43 26 1 96 5 0 .265 .308 .416 .724
vs. Left 482 0 123 27 1 17 58 37 5 85 4 1 .255 .311 .421 .732
2001
Right/Left AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB HBP SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
vs. Right 409 88 84 14 0 6 42 17 5 84 7 1 .205 .240 .284 .524
vs. Left 475 0 115 33 5 10 37 52 0 79 11 1 .242 .315 .396 .711
2000
Right/Left AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB HBP SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
vs. Right 219 62 45 11 0 4 14 25 2 47 7 2 .205 .286 .311 .596
vs. Left 246 0 67 12 2 12 37 39 0 32 5 0 .272 .371 .484 .854
He’s actually holding right handed batters down as well as he did last year, though not near his flukish 2001 numbers. But look at that jump versus lefties? Last year, they hit .255/.311/.421 against him. This year? .304/.375/.514. Every left-hander he faces turns into Bret Boone.
While I almost never subscribe to the tipping pitches theories (remember how many times they “fixed” Norm Charlton’s delivery?), this supports that theory. Lefties are clearly picking him up better than ever, and there may be a mechanical flaw that is allowing them to get a longer look at the ball than in the past. Unfortunately, I haven’t seen enough games this year to pick up on what it may be, though I’d guess that he may be showing the ball in his hand earlier, allowing players on the opposite side of the box to get a good read on the spin of the ball.
At worst, it looks like Freddy could still retain some value in the playoffs as a setup man. If you spot him simply against tough-right handers, he could be effective in the old Ryan Franklin/Shigetoshi Hasegawa role. I can’t imagine they’ll stick with him in the rotation that much longer, but good management by Bob Melvin (well, there’s a first for everything) could get Freddy back on track by October.
For those of you who don’t have plans tonight, it’s time for my weekly suggestion. Felix Hernandez will be taking the hill for Everett tonight in relief of Kazuhiro Sasaki, who is going to be making his 3rd rehab start. If you haven’t yet seen King Felix, then make the trip. If you have, go see him again.
True story: today I had a late dinner with my wife. Afterwards:
Her: “You want to watch the game?”
Me: “I don’t know. Freddy’s pitching, he’s probably given up four runs already.” (turn on TV, score is 4-0)