In unrelated news, I’m finally learning how football is played. I understand there’s a team here in Seattle.
In a nice after-game ceremony we didn’t get to see on M’s TV, Gillick and the Box presented Billy Beane and Macha with the AL West trophy after today’s game. “I don’t know why I keep implying bad things about your team,” Gillick said. “Especially after the last couple of years. Oh well, I’m leaving this new-fangled game anyway.”
It wouldn’t have made a difference, but Box Melvin’s bizarre fixation on the sac bunt in crucial situations baffles me. When you need one run to win the game, fine, but why in the world would you sac Ichiro from second to third with no outs, burning an out and one of your only decent hitters in the linup?
This is a wildly boneheaded move. You can expect to get 1.17 runs in an inning if you start with 0 outs and a man on second — and that’s an average man, not speedy Ichiro, who can score from second much more readily. A guy on third and one out? .977. At best, if you were playing against a porous defense and could expect that in 10% of the situations you get the batter safely to first as well, it’s a break-even move. With Oakland fielding Chavez/Hatteberg, no deal.
I don’t care what kind of a high-pressure game this was, it’s never a good idea to intentionally cut your own hamstrings. Play for one run if that run will win you the game, because playing for one run will get you only one run. Without knowing that’s the case — and you don’t until much later in the ballgames.
Especially with Lilly shaky in the first/second, before he really started dealing — you want to keep pushing as many batters through those outs as you can, before they can get someone else in or (as we saw today, and earlier this series with Pineiro) they start to settle in.
Bonehead move by a bonehead manager.
And here’s the other thing. Sometimes in life, you have to report for an ass-kicking. There’s a bully who wants a few words about the snide comment about his dad you couldn’t manage to hold in, whatever. What you want to do is show up, get the ass-kicking, and walk away. You don’t want to get back in line for a second ass-kicking. At 5-0, 6-0, at least we could still hope.
If it wasn’t over heading into this series — and I still contend it was — it’s certainly over now. Oakland’s magic number is down to a mere three, meaning the M’s pretty much have to win their remaining six games (and even if they do, Oakland would only need to win two of three at home vs. Texas to force a tie). While I suppose that could happen, this team is flawed to the point where running off that kind of a winning streak seems unlikely, particularly when three of those six games are against the A’s.
Strong outing by Pedro and the Red Sox win, 2-0, to move two full games up on the M’s as of this moment. Not that the M’s should be worried about Boston right now — they have much more pressing matters at hand, like finishing off the sweep of the A’s here in another 20 minutes or so.
Meche (15-11, 4.34) vs. Harden (5-4, 4.64). Harden, if you recall, looked like the next coming of Cy Young after his first few starts in the majors, but certainly hasn’t been automatic lately. The M’s haven’t seen him this year. Meche has seen the A’s three times, with good results: 1.86 ERA in 19.1 innings. Unfortunately, all he has to show for it is an 0-1 record. The M’s are 1-2 in those three starts, but Meche pitched well all three times out.
Sunday, Red Sox v Indians: RHP Martinez v RHP Davis. Yes, that Pedro.
Has 3B coach Dave Myers ever seen a runner too slow to wave around third? Sure, it was great seeing Davis bash the hell out of Ramon Hernandez, but so far this series we’ve seen luck bail him out of two obvious bad decisions at the hot corner waving around slow runners.
Running Over the A’s
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Wild Speculation
5 games remaining against the A’s
3 games remaining against the Angels (for the A’s, 3 v Texas)
Ignore for the moment the Angels/Rangers
M’s win all 5 remaining: M’s 93-66, A’s 92-67, M’s by one
M’s go 4-1: M’s 92-67, A’s 93-66, A’s by one
M’s go 3-2: M’s 91-68, A’s 94-63, A’s by two
.. and so on
Let’s just look at the first two:
M’s go 6-0 in the last two series, it’s 93 wins to 92 wins. If the A’s manage to grab one more win from Texas than we do with Anahiem, it’s a tie, and we go to a tiebreaker. So 0-3 versus 1-2, 1-2 versus 2-1, all result in a tie. If Oakland grabs two more wins, which seems unlikely, they take the division title.
So even if the M’s sweep the remaining games, there’s still a very good chance we’ll end up tied and see a one-game playoff (and maybe another one with Boston if we tie them, too).
If the M’s go 5-1 in the last two series, it’s the opposite. If the M’s manage to grab one more win from Anahiem than Oakland does with with Texas, it’s a tie, and we go to a tiebreaker. So 0-3 versus 1-2, 1-2 versus 2-1, all result in a tie. If Seattle grabs two more wins, which seems unlikely, division title.
So if the M’s lose one of the next five games, there’s still a decent chance we see a tie.
4-2 or worse is pretty much wave bye-bye to the division title.
All of which to say is this:
Assume Oakland goes 0-3 against Texas. The M’s need to go 5-3 or better to finish the season with a good shot at a tie or the division title.
1-2, the M’s need to go 6-2.
2-1, the M’s need to go 7-1
3-0, the M’s need to win eight games in a row.
Anything can happen in this short a period of time. It’s worth noting that the Angels are essentially fielding a AAAA team of their PCL team plus 3-4 major leaguers a game (like spring training, which I highly recommend). Texas, though, got whupped the last time they faced Oakland, a three-game sweep in which Oakland outscored them 24-11. Still, they have a pretty good 1-5/6 lineup…
We’ll see.
Coming soon: more GM candidates not named Derek Zumsteg in further useless speculation about how to improve the team, and a HUGE HUGE HUGE preview of off-season turnover, or lack thereof.
“Don’t Give Up Hope” Picture of the Day ™
C’mon kid! The M’s haven’t been eliminated yet! You gotta believe!
I’m well stocked for tonight, with an assortment of snacks, many salty, yes, and beers, good and bad, and hopefully the game tonight is going to reverse what’s been a pretty crappy day today characterized by bad customer service (brief aside: if I have a beer and then you give me incorrect change, and correct it, and I ask a question like “So, the beer was x then?” to make sure we’re cool, that’s no reason to tear into me for not paying attention to the particular happy hour rules of your establishment) (side note: I really miss the legendary Kelly, Greatest Bartender of All Time)).
One of the many bad qualities of the wild card playoff berth is that it’s scoreboard watching, and not direct competition. While the Mariners may have a better chance that they’ll come out ahead of Boston in the won-loss column, there’s no way for either team to affect what the other team does on a given day. The M’s can’t send their best pinch-hitters (hypothetically, if they had any) to Toronto to try and steal a game from Boston. Boston can’t loan Oakland a spare corner OF.
The race the M’s control through 6 head-to-head matchups, starting tonight, is the one they’re going to be hard-pressed to come out on top of. As far back as they are, a split is death for their AL West chances. They need to go 5-1 to make this a race, and if you’ve been watching these teams matchup so far this year, you know what the chances are that’ll happen. And to remain in the race against Boston, the M’s need go 4-2 at least while Boston faces Cleveland and likely does well there.
Friday: RHP Franklin v RHP Hudson
Saturday: RHP Pineiro v RHP Duchscherer (pronounced Duhr-ro-shcer-rer-rer, TV tells me)
Sunday: RHP Meche v RHP Harden (ESPN2, folks, and this could be an huge, pivotal game)
Touché.