After the GM search, Kazuo Matsui is probably the most interesting decision the Mariners will make this offseason. I can see both sides of the issue, and think my feelings on his acquisition will be determined by the other roster decisions the new GM makes.
Why Matsui would be a good acquisition
1. Shortstop is a problem for the Mariners and he is the best available option (no, I don’t think much of Miguel Tejada in Safeco Field). Carlos Guillen simply is not a reliable option for a contending team. You can count on him missing at least a month of the season, being hobbled for another month, and just an average player when he is healthy. The Mariners should view shortstop as a position of weakness and look to upgrade.
2. The Japanese revenue is a strength for the organization. The Mariners get more money flowing into their coffers from Japan than any other team, and it is wise to continue to cultivate financial advantages where you can find them.
3. He is in his prime. Unlike most free-agents, Matsui is not in the decline phase of his career. He turns 28 next week and likely has 2-3 “prime” years left before his skills begin to deteriorate. Most free agent signings are at the end of their good years, and teams are paying for what they have done in the past. He will be discounted because of the uncertainty of his abilities to translate to America, but we shouldn’t be worried about his abilities vanishing before our eyes.
4. His skillset should translate well to Safeco Field. As a switch-hitter, he’ll take most of his hacks from the left side, so the giant abyss in left-center shouldn’t rob him of too much power. His swing is tailored for line drives and ground balls, reducing most the park effects that Safeco would have on his production.
Why Matsui would be a bad acquisition
1. Japanese players are consistently overpriced. Think anyone would be handing Hideki Matsui seven million dollars if he were a free agent this offseason? Me either. The market is not made for bargains. The Mariners will almost certainly have to pay a contract higher in value than his actual production is worth. He will not come at a discount rate.
2. His power may not translate to the major leagues. His value in Japan has come from hitting 30+ homers the past two years, but most scouts project him as a 10 homer guy in America. Since he doesn’t walk much and doesn’t have Ichiro’s ridiculous ability to hit .400 for months at a time, he’s going to have to have some pop to be an impact player. None of the Japanese players have proven to be productive power hitters at the major league level, and Little Matsui is not likely to be the exception.
3. The Mariners need to maintain budget flexibility. Locking themselves into a 3 or 4 year contract to a risky proposition like Matsui would hamper their ability to acquire the power bat they badly need.
What would I do?
I’d probably take a pass on Matsui. I don’t believe his power will translate and he doesn’t walk enough to get by as a singles hitter. Similar to Big Matsui, I expect him to be a league average player getting paid significantly more than he is worth. I think there are cheaper alternatives available with similar upsides and less risk involved. However, if the Mariners want to open up that weird non-payroll fund and sign Matsui to a contract that won’t keep them from acquiring other talent, then by all means do so.
Boy, did ESPN back off that quickly. Now Port’s interviewing for the job, and no mention of their announcement that he was hired.
Hey, Kaz Matsui rumors are floating again. I’ve advocated a Matsui acquisition, but I’d like to now back off that. Matsui would be an upgrade over Glass, but not by much — a little more performance, most likely, and almost certainly in durability. But the cost is likely to be astronomical. If the team’s ownership decides to sink money into him and it doesn’t come off their payroll, well, no skin off my back. But if it does, the team’s almost certainly going to be much better off letting someone else overpay tremendously and looking for cheaper, more effective options on their own, even if that’s just having Guillen out there and taping him together when he shatters.
In other GM news, it appears Gary Hunsicker will be staying with the Astros for at least one more season. This doesn’t affect the M’s directly, but if Hunsicker had taken the Mets’ job it could have had a slight domino effect which may have eventually gotten to the M’s.
Also, here’s the article from the Times talking about Port, in which he says he expects to interview this weekend. So hey, we now have one more or less “official” candidate of the supposed 6-8 on the final list.
I realize I don’t have the journalistic resources that Peter Gammons does, and he’s been doing what he does for a really long time, is respected in the industry, and generally gets news before everyone else, but that doesn’t change the fact that this time, he’s wrong.
Mike Port has an interview scheduled for Saturday afternoon. The preliminary talks he has had with the club do not infer that an offer will be made, regardless of how the interview goes. He may end up getting the job, but it is not a done deal yet.
ESPN’s reporting that Mike Port’s the new GM and it’ll be announced in the next couple of days. At least the last part seems unlikely to me: MLB wants all hiring and other big announcements to wait until after the World Series, and Selig has twisted some arms over this in the past. Since the M’s are (and let’s just be honest) run by people who aren’t the most outspoken or prone to break MLB rules to attract a spotlight, it would seem that even if they had made a hire, they’d take the commish’s request into consideration and wait until the Series is over.
I guess there’s only one thing to say: Go Marlins.
After watching Grady Little mangle game 7, I have a whole new appreciation for Bob Melvin. In game strategy isn’t everything, but I’m not sure Grady could have made more consecutive wrong decisions if he had money on the Yankees. What an awful job of bullpen management.
According to the Seattle Times, Jim Beattie is not a candidate for the job. No tears lost over here.
Interestingly, Finnigan notes that they have narrowed the list of 60 names down to 6-8 for interviews, though that doesn’t jibe with earlier comments Lincoln has made. Still, it appears obvious that the Mariners won’t be parading through every qualified assistant GM in the book, and it would seem that experience is receiving quite a bit of weight.
The interesting sideline in all of this is that Paul DePodesta is already publically saying his goodbyes to the A’s. He is now referring to his tenure in Oakland in past tense and making comment like “They will still have a good team the next few years.” Clearly, he seems to believe he is going to be elsewhere in 2004. However, he is not a candidate for the Cincinnati job, and the Mets are prominantly tied to Gerry Hunsicker, current GM of the Astros. That would leave Seattle as the only GM opening, and I’m not sure I would see a benefit to him taking another assistant GM job with a new organization. So, does he know something everyone else doesn’t? I doubt it. But it bears watching, and a hire of DePodesta would signal a huge shift in philosophy by the Mariners. I’m not completely sold on the A’s model of player development, but I am rather certain that DePodesta would manage the payroll better than Gillick did. That, in and of itself, would be a big improvement.
Pedro vs Rocket tonight with the World Series on the line. You can’t make this stuff up. Baseball rules.
Best part about these Marlins games is seeing Jack McKeon, who managed the Reds unconventionally, did well, and got fired, whupping up on Alou and Baker. The Marlins play like you want to see a playoff team play: he throws everything into every game he can win, will throw guys in earlier than conventional wisdom advises, and realizes that the post-season is played by different rules.
I raise a beer to McKeon and hope that in some small way, his success will help unravel the slavery to set roles like ‘closer’ and rote in-game tactics.