Before I go off into my non-Mariner serenity, the organization thought I needed one more low blow, trading U.S.S. Mariner endorsed unheralded prospect, Allan Simpson, to Colorado for Chris Buglovsky. Bugs is so talented that he was passed over by every team in the rule 5 draft today, after getting beaten around like a ragdoll for Double-A Tulsa and posting horrible BB/K rates in both Double-A and the AFL. His career K rates are uninspiring, and Bugger is, essentially, a fringe non-prospect. Decent arm, but 4 years of middling results was enough to convince most teams to take their flyers elsewhere.
Not the M’s, though. They swap out Simpson, who could easily have filled the 6th spot in the pen for the league minimum and been quite effective, for the Bugger, apparently for the sole intention of further ruining my day.
I agree with Dave: I’m still stunned and speechless with how abjectly wrong this has gone. Gillvasi has engineered one of the most disastrous off-seasons of recent memory, and the only question that remains is how bad the M’s are going to be next year, which I’ll attempt to answer later tonight.
We know that a lot of people visit this site in the wake of transactions looking for analysis of the moves. The two busiest days in our sites history were last Friday, the start of the winter meetings, and July 31st, the day of the trading deadline.
However, I find myself unable to write about the team today. Bill Bavasi has, in one month, worn down the joy of following this club. I need a day off. Maybe more than one. I need to go find a quiet place and think happy thoughts. Those thoughts will not include the Mariners.
As a public service, here is what I said before these deals went down:
Why McCracken was a terrible idea.
Why Spiezio was, at best, not a good idea.
Hopefully, I’ll be back to normal by Saturday. I have a feeling Piecora’s is going to sell a lot more alcohol on Saturday.
w/r/t Jason’s post, I have some different thoughts on this. Spending money if a team isn’t going to win the division isn’t a bad thing, given some reasonable restraint. There’s a big difference to the local fans between a team that goes .400 and one that is around .500. Say you’ve got the money and no second basemen in the system at all: it’ll be a couple years before anyone potentially develops. Go on and sign a good second baseman. If someone comes along unexpectedly in the future, no harm done. Shore up your rotation with some decent veteran starters who’ll give you 200+ innings and allow your pitching prospects to develop on their own schedule. The problem is when you spend unwisely: Tejeda’s contract, for instance, is back-loaded when he’s most likely to be bad. Or you sign a free agent to block the natural position of your most promising-and-ready prospect.
I’m ill.
The results of the major league portion of the Rule 5 draft are in, and the Mariners didn’t lose anyone. This isn’t much of a surprise, as they did a good job of protecting the necessary players this year.
Of the first 6 picks, 5 came from the Pirates organization. Nice job, there, Mr. Littlefield.
So… we know Olerud can’t hit lefties (.707 OPS the last three years). Ibanez, who at this point appears to be the only player the M’s will sign this winter, can’t either (.693 OPS the last three years). Carlos Guillen, who now looks like the team’s opening day shortstop (barring injuries, of course), checks in at .691 over the same period. And now we’re looking to both add Scott Spiezio (you’ve seen the numbers) and subtract Greg Colbrunn (.969 over the same period)? I don’t get it. It’s almost as if they’re attempting to construct the roster without actually looking at what they already have (or already lack, as the case may be).
Also, I hope people aren’t going to get too upset about this Miguel Tejada thing. Yeah, it would have been nice if he had signed here, but let’s be honest — the O’s blew the M’s offer out of the water. I’m not talking about the initial three-year, $25M offer, either, but rather the recently confirmed five-year, $45M offer. As much as the M’s need a bat, I’m glad they didn’t try to top Baltimore’s extremely generous offer.
I’m a firm believer that a GM should be evaluated on the players he attempts to acquire, and not just the ones he convinces to put their name on the dotted line. While people consistently point out Gillick’s free agent record, they never mention that he also made serious runs at lemons like Roger Cedeno and Jose Contreras. So, while some may perceive it as jumping the gun, let me throw another stone at Bill Bavasi, as word has come tonight that the Mariners have made an offer to Scott Spiezio. Now, usually, I’ll link to a players page at baseball-reference.com, but if you follow the link, you will notice it takes you to Scott Spiezio’s splits at ESPN.com. Why the change?
2003:
Vs Left: .223/.282/.338
Vs Right: .282/.344/.499
Ye gads. With Raul Ibanez and John Olerud already penciled in as everyday players who cannot hit lefties and the Mariners attempting to give away Greg Colbrunn, whose only job is to hit against lefties, the last thing the Mariners need is another player who can’t hit southpaws.
Now, Spiezio’s a decent enough player, a nice bat off the bench, and a good fit for a team who wanted to build a cheap platoon at first base (with, say, someone like Greg Colbrunn). But the M’s want him to be their everyday third baseman, and thats just not realistic. He posted a .326 on base percentage last year, is 31 years old, and is a below average defensive 3B. If you asked me who I thought was a better bet for success in 2004 between Spiezio and Justin Leone, I’d probably call it a coin flip. Toss in the salary differences, and its Leone in a landslide.
The philosophy of throwing a little bit of money at a lot of players is downright stupid. Until the organization learns the value of replacement level talent, we’ll be consistently outgunned in the AL West.
Now, Jason, I don’t disagree with you, but those are the exact same comments I made last year when the Marlins “foolishly” threw $10 million at Ivan Rodriguez, and then echoed when they wasted a good prospect in a trade for Ugueth Urbina. I mean, its not like they were world series contenders or anything… Moral of the story is that improving your team by adding good players is rarely a bad idea. In the case of Tejada’s contract, it could hamstring them in years 3-5 when he’s not worth the money he’s pulling in, but adding 15 wins to their roster makes them a playoff contender.
Also, I’m going to go pull up a dead horse and beat him again, since he is now relevant.
Jose Cruz Jr: 2 years, $6 milion.
Raul Ibanez: 3 years, $13.75 million
Jose Cruz Jr isn’t a great player. He is, however, better than Raul Ibanez, two years younger, did not cost the Tampa Bay Devil Rays a draft pick, can play center field, does not require a platoon partner, and signed through his 30-31 years instead of his 32-34 years. When you’re getting outsmarted by Chuck LaMar, well, its bad times.
OK, so you’re the Orioles, and you now have Miguel Tejada. Let’s say you get Vlad and Pudge too. Good for you. Here’s my question — even with those three additions, are you a better team than either Boston or New York? No, I don’t think so. I know these signings aren’t just a one year proposition, and of course they’ll make the Orioles a better team, but right now I’m not sure how much sense it makes to break the bank in that division.