Well, not to be outdone, the Mariners have signed a shortstop. Carlos Guillen re-signed with the M’s for $2.5 million and incentives that could push it to $3.4 million. With Tejada off the market, it now possible that Glass could be the M’s starting shortstop in 2004 after all.
Rumor has the Orioles announcing the signings of Vladimir Guerrero and Ivan Rodriguez later tonight. If true, well, crap.
Well, you can cross Miguel Tejada off the list. The shortstop is going to Baltimore for 6 years and $72 million. While I was glad to see the M’s pursue Tejada and liked him at 3 years and less than $30 million, he becomes an albatross in 2005 when his salary balloons, and I’m glad the M’s let him go at that price. People may take this as another sign that the organization isn’t willing to sign a big name player, but this is simply overpaying. Bavillick shows good restraint. There was just no reason to pay that much money to Miguel Tejada.
Hopefully, this takes the O’s out of the Vladimir Guerrero market, and puts the M’s squarely back in it. If they do turn to Omar Vizquel as Plan B, well, lets just say he’d go well with Quinton McCracken.
The Detroit Tigers, according to Jim Salisbury of the Philadelphia Inquirer (story various places, including here), have dropped their pursuit of Miguel Tejada, leaving the M’s and Orioles as his top suitors.
In other news, as much as I dislike Roger Clemens, I must say I’m amused at the possibility of him “coming out of retirement” to pitch one more season in Houston, just because it’d be a big slap in the face to the Yankees (and hey, I dislike them quite a bit more). You go Roger!
We are down to the last available 10 spots for the U.S.S. Mariner feed next Saturday. Details can be found here. In order to confirm your reservation, I will need payment via Paypal as soon as possible in order to place a food order for the proper number of people. A good time will be had by all, and if you would like to come, there is still time. Email us with the subject “Feed Confirmation” if you would like to attend, and I will send you the address to submit payment to.
Some good news hopefully coming down tonight. More later.
The NY Post has an article about the possibility of Yankee GM Cashman leaving the Yankees after this season. Yeah yeah yeah, but here’s the M’s bit:
They say Cashman was particularly annoyed that Steinbrenner constantly tells him he is overpaid, but then refused permission to let him interview for the Seattle GM job this offseason when he was believed to be the front-runner.
That aside’s interesting because it would seem to fit with the GM process, which seemed to go:
tons of candidates
press around a couple big-name candidates
big-name candidates fall through
(pause)
Bavasi!
Mike Cameron signed with the Mets. 3 years, supposedly ~$19.5m [updated from initial report] which is a lot more than 1 year, $4-5m. He’ll be a huge upgrade for the Mets defensively, though even I think that’s a lot to pay for Cameron over the life of the deal. It also means he goes to the East Coast, which was one of his desires if he couldn’t come back to Seattle.
And not to spend too much time on this, but even if the M’s were afraid they’d lose in arbitration and pay $8m to return a stellar centerfielder to the team, the gap between his possible arbitration win and the Mets’ offer would almost certainly have meant he’d have moved on anyway, netting the M’s a sweet first-round pick. I understand that there’s risk involved in arbitration offers like this, but the small risk of losing (and having Cameron return, which isn’t so bad, is it?) against netting such a high draft pick would certainly seem like evidence that Gillvasi & Co. don’t want those high draft picks anyway, as has been speculated before.
Well, goodbye, Mike. I cheered for you the whole time you were here and loved watching you play, even if our park wasn’t good to you. I hope you find success and greater appreciation for your amazing play in New York. Thanks.
I’d like to preface this post with the understanding that I will never stop being a Mariner fan. They are a part of me, and regardless of how low this team ever fell, I can’t see myself dropping my loyalties to the M’s. Things like the following, however, push that loyalty to its bitter edge:
From the Mariners official team site.
Meanwhile, there was more talk than action Friday as the Mariners exchanged ideas with virtually every other Major League club and could be close to a trade that would send backup first baseman Greg Colbrunn back to the Diamondbacks for switch-hitting outfielder Quinton McCracken.
Just in case you aren’t aware, Quinton McCracken hit .227/.276/.271 with Arizona last year. He had an solid 2002 campaign (.309/.367/.458), but that was proceeded by a .219/.275/.312 line in 2001 (64 at-bats) and a .129/.270/.129 (31 at-bats) line in 2000. Since leaving Colorado for Tampa Bay in 1998, during the prime years of his career (28-33), he has amassed the following line:
1409 at-bats, .275/.322/.383, 1 HR/128 AB’s, 1 BB/12 AB’s, 1 K/6 AB’s, 35 SB, 22 CS (61 %)
Those numbers make McCracken a bad player. Barely worth a major league roster spot, but livable if he’s making the league minimum and playing once a week, and you don’t really care about winning games. There are literally hundreds of minor leaguers who could perform in a similar manner for peanuts and cost absolutely nothing to acquire. But, you already know this. Now, knowing that McCracken, for the past 5 years, been a terrible baseball player is one thing. But for 4 of those 5 years, he’s been completely abysmal, one of the worst in the league. Go look at those lines, and tell me which one sticks out to you as the fluke.
Okay, moving on to more of the article.
Both players are coming off poor seasons and could benefit from such a deal.
McCracken isn’t coming off a poor season. He’s just finished the kind of year that causes most hitters to retire, or be forcibly retired. He was, according to BP’s Value over Replacement Position, 12 and a half runs WORSE than the average replacement player in 2003. There were exactly 9 hitters in all of baseball who did more damage to their teams than McCracken. For comparison, Jeff Cirillo was 9 and a half runs worse than replacement level. JEFF CIRILLO WAS 3 RUNS BETTER THAN QUINTON MCCRACKEN.
Moving on, again.
Colbrunn, who is due $1.8 million in the second year of a two-year, $3.5 million contract, batted .276 (16-for-78) with three home runs and seven RBIs. He played sparingly early in the season and was injured for most of the second half of the season.
Which is, of course, reason to not trade him, as his value has never been lower and is almost certain to go up from here.
McCracken, who made $1.75 million last season, batted .227 in 203 at-bats with no home runs and 18 RBIs. But he batted .309 for the Diamondbacks in 2002 and is a solid defensive player, capable of playing all three outfield positions.
I’m not usually a proponent of defensive statistics, and I think they still have a ways to go before they can pinpoint the exact differences in players, but the good ones can categorize players into “bad”, “good”, and “great” with reasonable effectiveness. Clay Davenport’s numbers have McCracken being exactly league average in left field, a disaster in center, and even more horendous in right field. It is safe to say that, based on his 2002 defensive performance, he is a liability anywhere but left field.
Okay, so, we’ve now established three things:
1. Quinton McCracken, during his prime years, was a horrible baseball player.
2. Quinton McCracken has begun his decline from horrible to the “does not belong in uniform” level.
3. There are hundreds of players better than McCracken who would earn no more than $300,000 next year.
So, to acquire the suckfest known as Quinton McCracken, the Mariners are going to part with a quality hitter on a team lacking quality hitters for the right to pay Quinton McCracken $1.75 million in 2004.
Matt Stairs, he of the .292/.389/.561 line last year, just signed a 1 year, $1 million free agent contract with the Royals.
Brad Fullmer, he of the .306/.387/.500 line last year, just signed a 1 year, $1 million free agent contract with the Rangers.
And, if you want to compare backup outfielders who can’t hit, Tom Goodwin, he of the .287/.328/.363 line last year, just signed a 1 year, $650,00 free agent contract with the Chicago Cubs.
All three teams acquired better players than McCracken for 1/2 to 1/3 of the cost of his 2003 salary. None of them traded their best pinch hitter in order to do so.
If this trade goes through, I throw my hands up. Every single person who has emailed us to say that Gillvasi has a plan, can, at that point, submit their apologies. The only logical explanation will be that these two have simply no understanding of how to evaluate baseball talent in 2003, and neither one deserves a job with a major league organization.
Quinton Freaking McCracken. If it goes through, Miguel Tejada won’t matter. Vlad Guerrero wouldn’t matter. Vlad and Tejada together wouldn’t matter. Nothing short of Babe Ruth’s reincarnation could overcome the stupidity of this kind of move. The karma of making the least defendable trade in modern history alone would ruin this team. Trading a major league player for the ghost of Quinton McCracken’s career is completely, 100 % indefensible. If this move is consumated, I will fail to see the point in rooting for the success of the 2004 Mariners. They will always be my team, but it will be painfully obvious that a revamping of epic proportions will be necessary for this team to ever win again.
I just heard that ESPN Radio’s reporting Tejada has agreed in principle to a contract with the Mariners. More details if /as we get them. After last night’s flurry of news and supposed news, I’m a little wary of this. As late as a couple hours ago, we’d heard that this weekend was when the sorting hat would get to work. [Updated at 2pm: You know, there’s just no way Tejada committed and it only blipped on ESPN Radio once and then no one thought to pick it up. I hereby disavow this rumor as rumor until proven otherwise.]
Also, if Mike Cameron signs with the A’s as seen in this artist’s rendition*… boy, that’s going to smart.
Sorting Hat: “Hmmm… you’re cool, yes, you’re undervalued and you need to find a team that can see that… you strike out a lot, but there are people who understand that you walk and hit for power….”
* no artist was used in the making of this rendition
Also, note that for Ibanez money, the Blue Jays got Miguel Batista, a really good starter, for the same amount of time. It’s a bit of an unfair comparison because the M’s didn’t really need a starter (but then… they didn’t really need Ibanez, either), but I predict that Batista will be worth far more to the Blue Jays than Ibanez to the Mariners over the next three years. Say… 50% more, in terms of total contribution, measured as VORPP for Batista vs VORP+defensive run metric (to be determined) for Ibanez
I would like to point out, w/r/t popup blockers, that the Big Board and Future Forty both launch in new windows, and some blockers disagree with that.
The Guerrero rumor was officially a myth. A giant step back in credibility for a previously respectable blog. Disappointing that Joe would pull something like that.
In other news, the winter meetings do kick off today, and I have a feeling that the team will look quite a bit different on Monday than it does today. Should be an interesting weekend.