Guillen made $2.5M last year, and if there’s one truth about arbitration, it’s that players get raises (deserved or not). Let’s suppose the M’s file at $3M, a marginal raise. Guillen’s agent knows they’ll offer at least a small raise, so now he’s likely to file for at least $3.5M. For discussion purposes, I think we probably should figure he’ll make $3.5-$4M next season.
However, I think it’s easy to save some money in order to pay him (and potentially Cameron more than $5M if needed). How? Don’t sign Batista for $4M. Don’t get me wrong, I think he’d be a nice guy to have, but at the same time there are guys like Rett Johnson, Clint Nageotte, Bobby Madritsch and even Julio Mateo (think about it!) who could take that 5th starter spot and make next to nothing doing it.
As Jason pointed out, there are some flaws in my plan, most notably the guesses on what arb. eligible and free agent acquisition players will cost. If I’m off even a little bit on several players, we’re over budget, as I didn’t leave much wiggle room. To answer a few questions, though:
1. Will Guillen really get significantly more than $2.5 million? That was his number this year, and he’s coming off a /.276/.359/.394 line in a year that he only played 109 games. He doesn’t have any sexy numbers that you can look at and say “hey, this guy deserves a raise”. He’ll probably get one just on service time, but I don’t see it being a significant raise.
2. The biggest stretch in all this is Mike Cameron at $5 million. I’m near certain he’ll get offered more than that by the Mets, and that would mean he’d have to take less money to stay in Seattle, which he probably won’t do. But I want to see Mike Cameron stay, and so I’m doing a little wishcasting. If he does leave, then you don’t trade Winn for prospects and sub him into centerfield instead at a slightly lower salary. The defensive downgrade from Cameron to Winn is enormous, though, and people are underestimating Cameron’s effects on this team.
3. Edgar’s base salary is $3 million. I tossed him an extra million since he’s almost certain to reach some of the incentives.
4. No, I’m not sure Justin Leone is ready to be an everyday player on a contending team. But I’d rather give him a chance to fail, then make a move at the deadline if he’s not the answer. These are the kind of risks that, if they pay off, provide a huge advantage for the team. If they don’t, you can still recover and find a replacement in season.
5. Miguel Batista made $3.3 million last year and the D’Backs declined his option for $5 milion. Clearly, they view his value as something less than $5 million, but I have to think he’ll get a raise after a very solid year. Thus, the $4 million number, which could be totally off base.
6. Paul Quantrill opted out of a deal that would pay him $3.5 million next year. Clearly, he’s expecting a raise. After posting an ERA 131 percent better than league average, I’d say he deserves it too. Before you think Dodger Stadium was the reason for his 1.75 ERA, he was better on the road than at home. And I should clarify my “murder on righties” comment; he’s awesome against left-handers too. Quantrill is a two-inning relief ace who can dominate hitters from both sides of the plate. He throws strikes, is durable, and has a strong track record of success. He’s given up 3 home runs the past 2 years. He’s an outstanding reliever, and unless he sees some kind of serious decline, $4 million for his services is a good deal.
7. Taylor is basically a name to fill that spot, but I would give Simpson, Looper, Putz, and Rett Johnson looks at that role as well. I have no problem going into spring training letting the kids fight for the last two spots in the bullpen. The M’s pitching depth is one of their biggest advantages, and they should use it to full strength.
Uh, ditto. I’m speachless, really, at how well it all works out.
OK, so I do have one thing to say — Carlos Guillen will get more than $2.5M in arbitration, possibly blowing your budget but not by much.
I’m so impressed with Dave’s plan, I’m giving it my full endorsement.
Dave’s 2003 Offseason Plan
Just playing around with the roster under the constraints of a $95 million budget. Originally, I built an $82 million team that looked a lot like last years team, just with a better bench and less experienced pitching staff. I realized that I had enough money to upgrade the offense, and went all out and got myself Vladimir Guerrero. I don’t think this will happen, and I’m not advocating these moves in totality, but it does show that the M’s could afford to make a run at Vlad if they so chose. In order to create enough room financially, I’ve traded Freddy Garcia, Randy Winn, and Ryan Franklin for prospects. All three have too much value to earn a non-tender, but none of them are worth their projected 2004 salaries to the Mariners. I also released Jeff Cirillo, eating his entire contract in the process. The free agent signings I’m advocating include a few guys who didn’t show up on my earlier list.
Miguel Batista is a quality pitcher who Arizona let go because of their cost cutting maneuvers. With Safeco Field keeping the balls in the park, he’d be a perfect fit. Also has great stuff to come out of the bullpen if young pitchers step up and demand a look.
Paul Quantrill is one of the most underrated relievers in the game. Murder on right-handers. Perfect compliment to Rhodes as a RH/LH pair.
Ben Grieve slots in as the left-handed bat off the bench. I think he could be in for a nice rebound season in the right environment.
Pokey Reese takes McLemore’s spot as the utility player, but actually provides tremendous defense at short and second as well as being able to handle third base. Solid pinch-running option as well.
Vlad, I don’t need to explain. He’s just awesome.
Here’s the roster:
Position Player Salary
C Wilson 3.50
1B Olerud 7.00
2B Boone 8.00
3B Leone 0.30
SS Guillen 2.50
LF Guerrero 15.00
CF Cameron 5.00
RF Ichiro 10.00
DH Martinez 4.00
Bench Colbrunn 2.00
Bench Grieve 1.00
Bench Davis 1.00
Bench Reese 1.00
Bench Bloomquist 0.30
SP #1 Moyer 6.25
SP #2 Pineiro 1.00
SP #3 Batista 4.00
SP #4 Meche 0.50
SP #5 Soriano 0.30
Closer Sasaki 7.50
RH Setup Quantrill 4.00
LH Setup Rhodes 2.50
RH Setup Mateo 0.30
RH Setup Taylor 0.30
Long Relief Madritsch 0.30
Sunk Cost Cirillo 6.50
Total 94.05
I should note that I am aware that Richie Sexson is not a free agent. I lumped him into the “Stay the Heck Away” category because we get a lot of questions about him and he’s 99.9 % sure to be traded. He’s a pretty good player, but a terrible fit for the Mariners.
Right-handed pull hitter likely to see his numbers tank in Safeco Field? Check.
Due more in salary next year than he would command on the open market? Check.
Poor defensive player at a position currently occupied by two players already under contract? Check.
I’d like Richie Sexson’s bat in the Mariner line-up. Unfortunately, that also requires finding somewhere to put Richie Sexson’s glove and Richie Sexson’s contract, and neither of those are desirable options. Better to spend your $8.5 million on a player who can upgrade a position of need.
As advertised, here is my not-comprehensive list of free agent suggestions. It includes guys that I endorse as quality acquisitions, guys I would avoid like they had the bubonic plague, and guys I can’t make up my mind on. Obviously, money is a huge factor in these decisions, and we really don’t know what certain players will command on the open market. At $2-3 million, Arthur Rhodes is a bargain. At $4 million, he’s overpriced. Some of my endorsed signees are based on the fact that they could be had cheaply, while the stay-the-heck-away guys are ones I expect to command far too much in return for what they provide. Due to time restraints, I present the list without commentary, other than to say that I will defend my support of Pokey Reese at a later date. I’m not insane, and its not a joke.
Dave's Endorsed Signings "Stay the Heck Away" Guys Undecided
Mike Cameron Shigetoshi Hasegawa Kazuo Matsui
Arthur Rhodes Mark McLemore Shannon Stewart
Vladimir Guerrero Armando Benitez Jose Cruz Jr
Matt Stairs John Mabry Jose Guillen
Jeromy Burnitz Raul Ibanez Kenny Lofton
Ben Grieve Joe Randa Roberto Alomar
Pokey Reese Richie Sexson Rondell White
Reggie Sanders
Bartolo Colon
Miguel Tejada
Javy Lopez
Rafael Palmeiro
Eddie Guardado
Rich Aurilia
Juan Gonzalez
Raul Mondesi
Vinny Castilla
Brian Jordan
Carl Everett
Oh, and one more thing: if the Yankees are seriously thinking about trading Nick Johnson, for anything, the Bavasi should pull a Billy Beane, call Cashman up and say “What’s it going to take?” and then come back in a couple hours with a four-team deal that lands Johnson on the Mariners. Four teams, twelve teams, the M’s don’t have a spot for him — I don’t care, I really don’t. I’d put him at 1b/DH to rest Edgar more and see if Olerud’s (limited) power stroke, and then Olerud can teach Johnson how to pick the low throw…. look, I know it doesn’t make sense for the team. But it’s Nick Johnson! Nick Johnson! How can the Yankees trade him?
I also made an outstanding chicken pho once. Man that was a good soup.
Ahhh, lunch. When a boy can pay $20 for a Taco Time soft taco and look at ESPN without feeling bad.
Anyway, quick re-visits:
Ichiro to center instead of Winn is good for me. Ichiro played center in Japan (though yes, in parks that are generally smaller yadda yadda), he’s got good range, hands, and takes good routes to the ball, and he’s got a great arm (obviously). I was at a couple of the games in 2002 where he subbed in for Cameron, and he looked good out there. Plus, Ichiro’s offensive value in center is higher than it is as a right fielder, compared to others at the position. The M’s must figure out the slump, though, and if that means investing more money for a quality 4th and running Ichiro/Winn/other dude out in center and resting Ichiro once a week, or more, that’s what they have to do. Really good Ichiro is worth a lot to the team, and slumping Ichiro kills the offense. It’s worth investing in a quality, deep outfield — especially now that we’ve seen how a really great outfield defense can turn a fly-ball pitcher (like Ryan Franklin) into a much better starter.
Any trade that gets Freddy Garcia out and returns value to the M’s is fine by me. At this point, I see arbitration as a too-expensive gamble that’s unlikely to pay off for the team, so if they get a six-pack of Milwaukee’s Best for him (mmm… the Beast) that’s fine.