So, have we reached the point yet where after a big win — like last night’s 11-0 laugher — we don’t have to say, “This might be the win that gets them going!” Because really, there is no such win when you’re talking about an old, bad team.
Doug Pappas passed away today at the age of 43. I conversed with him a few times during my season at Baseball Prospectus, and I enjoyed him as a person and a writer. He will be missed.
Ramon Santiago was actually called up on the 11th, it turns out. He just hasn’t been used since the 15th — he played three straight games (12-13-14) and then not again. I’m confused about that pattern… but then, I’d be pulling Boone & Co in blowouts to put the bench in there. If Boone (say) gets taken out on a double play in the ninth protecting a nine-zero lead, this season’ll get a lot worse.
Anyone notice that Tim Hudson circa 2004 has turned into some kind of weird Ryan Franklin/Shigetoshi Hasegawa circa 2003 mixture? After his win today, he’s 5-1 with a 2.90 ERA, right in line with his usual dominating career. But look at his peripherals; 3.95 strikeouts per nine innings? Among the 92 pitchers who qualified for the ERA title last year, only Danny Graves and Nate Cornejo posted strikeout numbers lower than that. Usually, a strikeout rate like that indicates some kind of red flag warning, especially considering Hudson’s rate last year was 6.08 K/9. But, looking further, Hudson’s pitching really, really well:
7.55 innings per start.
.39 HR/9 IP. Seriously, he’s allowing a home run every third start.
1.32 BB/9 IP. On pace for 36 walks on the season.
1.07 baserunners per inning.
2.29 GB/FB ratio.
.252 batting average against on balls in play.
He’s pitching deep into games, keeping everything in the park, and not letting runners reach base thanks to being an extreme groundball pitcher and getting some help from his defense. With the emergence of Roy Halladay in Toronto as a super efficient innings horse who uses his defense and the resurgence of low strikeout veterans Tom Glavine and Steve Trachsel in New York, I’m wondering if Rick Peterson and the A’s pitching gurus figured something out about how to pitch. The old adage is that strikeouts are gold for pitchers, but if they’ve found a way to get outs without working deep into counts, allowing their starters to pitch huge innings totals without heavy workloads, the M’s won’t be catching the A’s this decade.
Heeeeeeeeeey remember those Mariner pitcher reports I did? Aw yeah.
Here’s the Mariners pitchers, with what happens, percentage-wise, with each batter they face:
Names bfp k% bb% hr%
Garcia 235 17% 6% 2%
Pineiro 233 15% 8% 4%
Franklin215 11% 7% 3%
Moyer 212 14% 8% 6%
Meche 153 17% 13% 3%
Villone 116 16% 12% 2%
Hasegawa 88 11% 14% 1%
Mateo 84 18% 6% 2%
Jarvis 64 11% 8% 6%
Guardado 63 24% 5% 2%
Putz 45 24% 11% 0%
Myers 43 12% 9% 0%
Soriano 22 14% 14% 0%
AL pitcher averages: 16% K, 9% BB, 3% HR
You can see that as a staff, the Mariners are average. They’re held back a little by the bad strikeout numbers put up by Franklin and Hasegawa (which are still better than I’d feared).
High K is Guardado, with 24% of batters faced (and he’s staff-best at not giving up the walk, too — seriously, if anyone in this bullpen has value right now, it’s Eddie). Mateo’s pitching well, Garcia’s bthe best of the starters.
What’s interesting about Meche is that you can see his problem stick out: he’s getting the strikeouts as long as he’s on the mound, but he’s been giving up twice as many walks as Freddy. Seriously, that’s all the difference between the two of them so far this year.
How does this compare to last year? That’s a great question. It’s the barely different.
The Mariners staff last year got 16% strikeouts instead of 15%, they gave free passes to 8% of the batters they saw, and the home run rate was steady. The largest difference (and this is significant) was hit rate: the Mariners let 21% of opposing hitters get a non-HR hit this year, and last year only 19% got hits (w/HRs the difference is the same, 22-24). That’s… what, a hit a little more than every other game? 122 hits a year, uhhh.. that’s a lot of wins over the course of a season, and that’s all defense: everything under the control of the pitchers is pretty much the same as last year.
Particularly victimized: Kevin Jarvis (31%) though let’s be honest, he wasn’t helping himself with that low K rate and super-high HR rate. Pineiro and Mateo (24%) Hasegawa (23%).. the super-lucky JJ Putz has enjoyed his early success in part because he’s gotten great defense: only 9% of batters got a hit off him. Guardado at 13% has also gotten lucky.
If the Mariners wanted to start to turn this team around without making any kind of large organizational changes, they’d call Ramon Santiago up from Tacoma and install him at short. ERAs would drop, the offense can’t get much worse anyway, and suddenly the team’s hanging on in more lower-scoring games.
One other thought after watching tonight’s awful loss after Randy’s perfect game: remember that guy in the Seattle Weekly who said he was going to force feed me my stats after the Mariners won the World Series? Do you think he’ll force feed himself the stats when they don’t? Because Baseball Prospectus 2004 is what, 600 pages, and that might not work out for him. Or is there no accountability in this world?
I worry that what the team’s contemplating as they look at blowing this year up and becoming “more athletic” is trying to dig themselves out of a hole by digging faster and deeper. The team’s been a little Ichiro!-crazy for years now, seeing him as the epitome of a Mariner. My fear is that they’re going to trade off what they have and instead of acquiring talent in quantity or depth, they’ll get the same kind of players they’ve pursued so far: athletic toolsy guys who can’t hit for power or take walks, and then we turn into the Devil Rays.
I guess we’ll see, but… more than digging out of a hole, it’s like Melvin trying to bunt his way out of the team’s run scoring problems. If the organization doesn’t understand that the cause of their troubles lies in large part on their organizational philosophy, no good’s going to come of trying to put together a team that’s even more aligned with organizational philosophy.
What happened to Ichiro! the base-stealer? I’ve entertained the thought that if the M’s punt the season, they should play wacky-ball: let Ichiro! run whenever he wants when they face a catcher with any kind of arm or release problems, just to be annoying. Bring up Strong and let him terrorize the catcher too. But can Ichiro! steal any more? He’s 7-and-5 this year, which is terrible, and his stolen base totals are way down.. by year:
(Japanese)
29, 49, 35, 39, 11, 12, 21 (hmmmm)
(Mariners)
56, 31, 34… 7? On track for what, 30, maybe?
And I’ve heard people say he looks a step slower down the first base line, though I haven’t heard anyone put times to it yet.
But what’s the scoop? I heard a theory earlier this year that the amazingly grueling Japanese training regimen destroys players early in their careers, so they burn out much faster, their joints gone, but I don’t have any data to support that… and yet I keep thinking about it.
This is too good to be true, right?
• Shortstop Rich Aurilia is gone, if not in trade then as a possible release.
• First baseman John Olerud faces the same situation with one added possibility – if he’s not traded or released, he could be sent to Seattle’s bench.
• Right-hander Gil Meche is on the trade market, a bargain for a rebuilding team that wants a potential front-end starting pitcher and is willing to move talent to get it.
• Outfielder/reserve Quinton McCracken has been made available, and it there are no takers, could be released.
These steps begin, somewhat, to get at what Dave suggested he’d do a few days ago if made GM.
Personally, I wouldn’t mess around with exploring the trade market for a guy like McCracken — you’re probably more likely to have to take crap back in return than you are to get any sort of useful player. Just admit the mistake, release him, and move on. Aurilia might, I suppose, have some value to an NL club (hello, Dusty Baker!).
I’d be pretty shocked to see them release (or trade) Olerud. That’s just not their way, particularly with a local veteran.
For the record, my house is 373 miles from Camden Yards. I could sign up for every cable package imaginable in my area and still not get the Orioles network beamed into my house. It’s a 7 hour drive from my house to Baltimore.
Yet, I can’t watch the game on MLB.tv because I’m in the Orioles home market. This is just awful marketing, keeping the game from people who want to watch it and have no other recourse. Stupidity at its highest, right here.