Randy Johnson just tossed a perfect game. Congratulations to the Big Unit, still one of the most entertaining players on the planet.
Usually, I can tell its time for a quick recap when we get a whole bunch of emails on the same subject. So, since a lot of you guys have been asking similar questions, here is my random overview of things we obviously haven’t talked enough about.
1. Rett Johnson is still in extended spring, and despite Bob Sherwin’s proclamation that he’s “two weeks awayâ€, there is no timetable for his return to full-season ball. There is no guarantee he’ll be assigned to Tacoma if and when he is deemed ready this year.
2. Dioner Navarro, the next in the long line of overrated Yankee top prospects traded away that never amount to much at the big league level. While he’s the prospect mentioned in every potential Yankee trade, from Carlos Beltran to Freddy Garcia, he is not an impact prospect, and there is no way I’d swap Garcia for him straight up. If you read the Baseball Prospectus roundtable discussion on the book’s top prospect list, you’ve heard most of my arguments against Navarro.
He’s tiny, and I’m not convinced his body could hold up to catching long term. He swings with the authority of a catholic schoolgirl. He has no room to add muscle mass and he’s about as strong as he can get on that frame. His plate discipline is solid, but he’s not going to be an offensive force who draws the “pitch-around†walks, and I don’t expect him to be a prolific on base man at higher levels. His 2003 performance was a product of an inflated batting average that he’s never shown any ability to sustain, and its clearly the outlier in terms of the rest of his career. Toss in legitimate skepticism that he’s really 20-years-old, and there’s an awful lot of question marks surrounding him. I know he’s a favorite in the statistical community and the Yankees are hyping the heck out of him, but buyer beware with Dioner Navarro.
3. No, I don’t think the M’s should callup Jose Lopez and let him play shortstop. For those who think Rich Aurilia can’t play shortstop, you haven’t seen the 2004 version of J-Lo. For a player once regarded as a defensive whiz, he’s let himself go in a non-dieting Oprah kind of way, and he’s just not a middle infielder anymore. His plate discipline still sucks, and he isn’t likely to be an improvement on what Aurilia has been providing. He belongs in Tacoma, refining his game, waiting for his time to come. It isn’t this year. It might not even be next year.
4. Yes, it’s a frightening thought that the M’s have decided to get ‘younger’ and ‘more athletic’. They might as well call a press conference and announce that they’ll be trading for everyone in major league baseball with any kind of resemblance to Jolbert Cabrera. Because what this team needs is more utiltity players with low on base percentages…
5. In regards to Larry LaRue’s piece, I just don’t see the M’s pushing that panic button. I could see them putting Aurilia on waivers to see if anyone will take his salary, but releasing him after two months? Releasing Olerud and McCracken, swollowing their $10 million dollars in salary just to create roster spots for Jamal Strong and Hiram Bocachica? I just don’t buy it, but hey, maybe I’m wrong.
6. No, I wouldn’t explore trading Ichiro, mainly for two reasons. He’s still a revenue producing monster for the organization, and I have no doubt that his extension had as much to do with keeping the cash cow in town as it did keeping him in right field. And, really, who would trade for him, considering his widely publicized struggles and enormous new contract? The M’s have tied their hopes to him, and pulling a classic “sell low” right now would be foolish. The best thing to hope for is that the singles keep falling, the batting average keeps rising, the Japanese fans keep coming, and he creates a potential market for himself in the offseason. Dealing him now would do more financial and public relations harm than any good, especially considering how little he’d likely fetch in trade.
7. Rob Neyer’s column on Beltran was nuts. Beltran’s pretty clearly the second or third best player in the American League right now. It’s nearly impossible to overpay for a guy with his offensive performance who can also play a legitimate center field and is entering his prime.
8. Yes, I still love my camera. No, my photoblog isn’t dead. Server crashed, should be back in a few days.
Go M’s.
New GM Watch
May 18th edition
a brief comparison of GMs in their freshman year at the helm of their teams
—
Paul DePodesta, Dodgers, 22-14, .611 [last year .525]
Dan O’Brien, Reds, 20-17, .541 [last year .426]
Bill Bavasi, Mariners, 13-24, .351 [last year .574]
Hey, with Glaus out for the season, do you think the Angels might want Spiezio back? Maybe give us… I don’t know… Mathis? Cough cough.
Seriously, it’s time. Blow this team up. Play the youngsters. Let’s at least be entertainingly bad if we’re going to be bad.
Mariners v Orioles!
Tuesday, 7:05, RHP Freddy Garcia v RHP Daniel Cabrera. Cabrera’s only 22, a big guy: 6’3 230#. Freddy Garcia is, by measure, one of the most effective starterse in baseball. He hasn’t had two months like this since… well, before 2002. He ended last year on fire and he’s just kept going.
Wednesday, 7:05, RHP Ryan Franklin v LHP Eric Bedard. Ummm.. yup.
Thursday, 7:05, RHP Gil Meche v RHP Rodrigo Lopez (? Really?) Lopez would be moving out of the bullpen to make this start.
Baltimore’s been having problems with their rotation all year, they’re one of the worst units in the majors. The Mariners will match up a cryptic ace who baffles me and two guys who are decent candidates for immediate replacement by our better AAA starters.
Meanwhile, the Mariners will feature an offense that is, and I mean this sincerely, the laughingstock of the American League, a potential Superfund site. You know how we had to shut down Gasworks for a while and remove all that contaminated soil? In the off-season they’re going to so a Level 4 decontamination on Safeco Field, including the locker rooms and front offices, to get this start out and keep it from affecting future teams. The Orioles feature an offense you could make a reasonable argument is playing over their heads, but one that is scoring a ton of runs and beating up opposing pitching.
Seriously — park-adjusted, the Mariners have two players that are at or above average for their position: Dan Wilson and Scott Spiezio. This team has got to start hitting at some point, don’t they? Don’t they?
Baltimore also has a pretty good bullpen, where the Mariners… don’t so much.
And now, a brief paragraph for people who know what this is:
A twelve-ounce beer bottle fits Jakob’s hand exactly, his big hands envoloping the barrell almost entirely at rest, the neck a perfect handle in movement. Jakob had a brief, fiery death of a relationship with a woman who fit his build almost as well. Their physical relationship sparked and fired along Jakob’s nerves for months. Sitting in a bar, sitting in his bar, Jakob couldn’t help but think of her as he watched the bottle of Black Butte Porter turn under thumb-and-forefinger in his palm.
Scott Spiezio thinks he knows why the M’s aren’t scoring runs:
“I don’t think we’re really a home-run team,” Spiezio said. “We’re more a doubles team. I think our biggest problem is not getting runners in when they’re in scoring position. That’s what we’ve struggled with.”
I think everyone will agree that the M’s are not a home run team. But, what about his other two assertions? Is this a “doubles team”? And are they really having problems getitng runners in when they are in scoring position?
1. Not really, no. The team is a better doubles team than a home run team, much in the same way that hemmorhoids are better than colonoscopies. They are dead last in homers, and a whopping 8th in the AL in doubles. Of course, they are two ahead of 10th place Chicago, so it isn’t like the M’s are whacking extra base hits all over the place.
2. Well, no. As a team, with RISP, they are hitting .266/.358/.386, having scored 120 runs in 308 at-bats. Their opponents, in the same situations, are hitting .251/.333/.401, but have only scored 107 runs in 342 at-bats. Their numbers with RISP are actually better than their numbers with none on, which stand at a paltry .260/.319/.361.
The problem isn’t that the team is getting runners in scoring position and not driving them in. It’s that they just aren’t getting people in scoring position often enough, because, well, their hitters suck. And, on the rare occasion that they do get someone into scoring position, you can count on Bunting Bob to give up an out, allowing the team to walk our good hitter to get to our crappy ones. For what its worth, Edgar Martinez has 12 walks with RISP, compared to just 31 at-bats.
So, it looks like Spiezio’s career as an analyst isn’t off to a great start, considering he made three points, only one of which was true, and that insight was apparent to any random six year old walking the streets of Seattle. I would tell him to stick to what he’s good at, but honestly, I’m not sure what that is.
I like that Thiel has the stones to come out and say that this season is indeed not just bad, but a historically awful collapse.
I would take issue with one thing, though:
At about $81 million, the Mariners have a top 10 payroll that made no provision for power.
They did make provisions for power: they thought Ibanez, Spiezio, and Aurilia were going to be power bats in the lineup, and they’re not.
Three cheers for Larry Stone and Art Thiel, who both took the M’s to task over the weekend. Well done, fellas.
Now, if its not too much to ask, could someone at one of the local dailies go after this bunting nonsense? We’ll even provide the run expectancy charts and show why Melvin’s willingness to give up outs has cost the team in crucial situations where they cannot afford to give up outs. This Buntfest 2004 just can’t continue to go on unchallenged.
Spiezio finally comes through. Considering he’s like 1-42 with runners in scoring position now, I think the clutch label has pretty much worn off.
Now, Wilson pounds a 3 run double, and the M’s lead by 6. Big game from Wilson. The M’s needed a win like this. Now if they’d just stop freaking bunting.
If Winn bunts here in the 13th, I officially give up.
Edit: Mother!$#!%
Bunting again?!?!$#$ I have no words. Fire them all.
Edit: Apparently, Winn was just trying to give me an ulcer. He’s now swinging away.