Yeah, about that PTP.. it’s almost as if one of the authors here wrote it and cribbed off the site and Dave’s stuff in particular… not that any of us are Prospectus authors and particularly familiar with the site, or anything.
(shifts nervously)
Um, I have to go now.
I’ve talked about this before, but I started reading Rob Neyer on ESPNet Sportszone when his column was called Chin Music. Rob and Rany on the Royals was the thing that caused me to send Derek and Jason a line and suggest that we do something like that for the M’s (this was before anyone knew what a blog was). Neyer was my introduction to sabermetrics, for the most part, and like an old friend, he’ll always have a spot in my memories. So, with that caveat out of the way…
This column is a steaming pile of horse crap, and the attitude expressed in it is one of the reasons why statheads have little respect outside of their own community. The scouting reports on MLB.com came from the Major League Scouting Bureau, which was responsible for drafting exactly 0 players. The purpose of the MLSB is to provide a supplemental resource to teams and give them a snapshot of players they can’t scout personally. The MLSB exists to help teams not have to have an area scout in North Dakota, because on the rare occurrance that a draftable player shows up there, the scouting bureau will file a report, which will be seen by all 30 teams, who will then dispatch their own scouts to go work up a profile for their respective team.
The MLSB reports are a service that the major league teams value, and they perform their service perfectly. They aren’t intended as in depth evaluations and no team drafts players based on a scouting bureau writeup. The team’s individual scouting reports are extensive in depth, covering a players skills and abilities as well as his physical attributes. The snippets Rob pulls for this column are essentially introductions, which he then hammers for not being novels. Rob writes introductory paragraphs to his columns all the time, but no one selectively removes those from the whole and rips him for the content of that singular paragraph. Ridiculing a scout for describing a players physical proportions is just stupid; they spend 3 hours watching the kids play, and have plenty of time to write “lean body” on their cards without having it effect their time allotted to evaluating the more important aspects of his talents. Gathering information is good, and criticizing them for taking note of every little thing is short sighted and ignorant.
Put simply, Rob Neyer-and to be honest, almost everyone in the statistical community- completely misunderstands the roles and usefulness of scouting. Every time Rob Neyer writes about scouting, he sets statheads back. Every time someone at Primer or Prospectus write about scouting, I cringe. Its not always bad (Dayn Perry, for one, is good at writing to both sides), but more often than not, its uninformed drivel parroted from what someone else told them. Nobody drafts a player because he has “the good face” or a “high rear”. It’s just one piece of information on a sheet filled with insight that can’t be achieved in other methods, but most of the people beating the sabermetric drum are so eager to look for flaws in the old guard, that they’ll pounce on whatever they can get their hands on.
So, please, Rob, stop writing about scouting. You’re not doing us any good, and you’re not doing yourself any good. Alienating those who can do subjective analysis well doesn’t do anyone any good. The sabermetric revolution may be in full swing, but the condescension that most statheads write with makes me want to join the resistance.
You know, I almost never read Jayson Stark, but for some reason, I clicked on his piece today, and found him calling us brilliant. Well, kinda:
New Yorkers also don’t seem to be noticing the top-of-the-line defense of Mike Cameron in center field. But it’s time to pay closer attention.
The brilliant number-crunchers at Baseball Prospectus just broke down the rate of extra-base hits that are falling in Seattle, since Cameron departed, and in Queens, since Cameron arrived. And this can’t be a coincidence: Projected doubles and triples against the Mets this year: 267 — or 81 fewer than last year. Projected doubles and triples against the Mariners this year: 390 — up 156 from last year.
When informed of those numbers by the Newark Star Ledger’s David Waldstein, Cameron (last seen hitting .196) laughed: “At least I’m doing something right.”
But as hard as it is to quantify the effect Cameron has had on the drop in the Mets’ ERA, teammate Joe McEwing looks at it this way:
“It’s amazing to see how much he’s transformed our team. A year or two ago, if it’s first and second and a guy hits a gapper, we’re down, 2-0, and there’s a man on second, nobody out. This year, a lot of times, that same ball is an out. So now it’s first and second, one out, and a ground ball gets us out of an inning. That’s a potential three-run swing.”
Jason may have seen it in the latest Prospectus Triple Play, but for those who have been reading USSM for a while, you’ve seen us tracking these numbers for months. Nice to see someone letting Cameron know just how much of an impact he’s made out there, however.
At 22-36, the Mariners are the worst team in the American League. Worse than the clueless and inept Devil Rays. Worse than the stalled low-payroll rebuilding of the Royals.
Peter Gammons reported that Bavasi is telling GMs calling about Freddy that he wants to wait a little longer before making any decisions. Now, if that’s because he wants to get the bidding up, I understand, and that might even be smart.
But don’t you suspect that he’s wishing that Garcia would help the team make up some ground, any ground, in the division? That what Bavasi really wants, more than a chance to help the team long-term by making some astute trades, is to salvage any scrap of redemption out of this season to help him keep his job? As if people would say “Boy, that Bavasi.. he made all the right moves but he was sabotaged by injuries and, uh, bad luck. See how the team was starting to play well before he had to make moves? They might have come back.”
And I’ve been reluctant to mention this, but Boone looks a lot less mobile out there at times this year. He’s just not making the fast three, four-step runs to snag balls I’m used to seeing. And then sometimes he flashes the leather, ranging way out to his right and then gunning the ball to first. I don’t know if it’s the injuries he’s been fighting or if he’s flat demoralized and having trouble getting psyched up enough, but… I can’t be the only one who’s seen this this year.
Draft recap
So, draft day one recap, shortened version, because my employers actually expect me to work every now and then.
I’ve been told that there’s almost no chance that the M’s won’t sign Tui. They knew when they picked him that he wanted about $1.7 million, and they’ll give it to him with little haggling. The organization realizes the PR hits they’ve taken this year, and they won’t take another one by haggling over a couple hundred thousand dollars. He’s going to sign. My speculation yesterday was inaccurate.
So, how good of a prospect is he? He gets mixed reviews. There are a lot of things to kinda like, but nothing to love. His defense is probably good enough to handle third base, but a move to the outfield is also a possibility. He’s not playing shortstop in the big leagues. Offensively, he makes decent contact, has some power, and runs well enough, but he’s not a special hitter. He’s pretty raw, and likely a one-level-at-a-time guy, so don’t expect Tui to pull a Felix Hernandez and shoot through the farm system. When asked to compare him to Adam Jones, last year’s ridiculous #1 pick, every scout I asked preferred Tuiasasopo, but with the caveat that neither one is the kind of prospect you want to be the best guy in your system.
The rest of the days haul gets a pretty uninspired yawn. Robert Johnson is a defensive catcher who might hit .270 if he works hard and become a decent backup. Not a great value in the fourth round, and was projected as a 5th-10th round pick on most teams boards. More than one scout described this as one of the biggest reaches of the first day.
Mark Lowe is a Matt Thornton-like project who got drafted on velocity and arm strength. At least we didn’t take him in the first round, but the 5th round was probably too early for him as well. As a draft eligible sophomore, he has more leverage than most 5th round picks, and could go back to school if the M’s don’t offer above-slot money.
Jermaine Brock is a toolsy outfielder who was also scouted as a left-handed pitcher. Another longshot pick, but several other clubs liked his bat too, so the M’s weren’t alone in liking his upside.
Sebastian Boucher is a burner who can just fly. Think Jamal Strong with a worse bat. Probably signs relatively cheaply, so a nice pick in the 7th round.
Marshall Hubbard is just a hitter, and his drafting is a pretty big change from the M’s philosophies of the past, even if he was just an 8th rounder. He’s got a long swing from the left side that can drive the ball when he makes contact, but he’s got no value in the field and would get lapped by John Olerud in a footrace. He’s got a chance to turn into a player the A’s would like.
Steve Uhlmansiek was taken in the 12th round and could be an interesting sleeper. He was a top 5 round pick on talent, but blew out his elbow and underwent Tommy John surgery. He won’t pitch again until next summer, and most believed he’d return to school for ’05. However, I’m told there is a good chance the M’s get him signed for a reasonable amount. If they can get him for not-early-round money, its a bargain. This could be the best pick of the day.
The report on the rest of the picks is pretty similar; either easy sign college guys who will be organizational depth with no real future or long-shot high schoolers who aren’t likely to sign.
Considering the M’s didn’t have a pick until the late third round, they did okay. Not a spectacular draft, but an improvement over the abominations of the Frank Mattox era.
Beats another Meche start, for sure.
It was weird to watch Nageotte, because if you watch with eyes open you see everything people laud and caution about him. His breaking stuff is great, and fastball has life. But his location is all over the place, which is cool but also a little scary. You can see how he makes some teams drool, and also why some say he’s got a long ways to go before he’s going to be an effective major league starter.
I hope they keep him in the rotation — the team’s already made some comments about trying to figure out the rotation* — because at least Nageotte’s interesting.
Did it seem to anyone else like tonight’s game just draaaaaaaaaaagged?
Cliiiiiiiiiint! Not a bad showing against a pretty good offense, what with their four hitters over an .850 OPS. Given his off-and-on control problems, three walks in six innings is a nice start, and of course those eight strikeouts are none too shabby.
We didn’t draft ten tall left-handed high school pitchers? What the heck is going on?
I fully admit to knowing nothing about the players the M’s have taken so far, but it is interesting to note how many college players they’ve taken already — 9 of 13, and they’ve only taken one HS pitcher (they generally love HS lefties). They’ve also focused on position players rather than pitchers, which is good given the thin hitting talent currently in the farm system.
Readers continue to disagree with my post on the double steal. Says tede:
You missed the plot. Stealing off of Koch/Alomar was inspired and may
mean that the M’s actually have an advance scout.
The two WTF moves were made by Guillen. In the 7th with Loiaza at 110
pitches allowing him to pitch to Randy Winn who already had two hits off
of him and a career average of about .500. No way should Guillen
expect a HR off of the Cafe by Winn, but a base hit or walk to bring up
the tying run to the plate was likely.
The other WTF move was after the double steal of second and third in the
9th with Edgar at the plate. Edgar has a 1-2 count after the steal.
Guillen (and Koch) badly need a strikeout for the second out of the
inning. Instead Guillen gives Edgar a free pass. Since Guillen is
asking a fragile Koch for a strikeout, it is easier to strike out an
aged Edgar with a 1-2 count (and with a recent habit of taking called
strike threes particularly slow curve balls) than starting over with
Cabrera with no empty bases to work with. It looked like Guillen fell
into the common manager’s habit of respecting his contemporaries too
much and not reading the scouting reports.
I still disagree. I think if Koch goes to low curves, he’s going to walk Edgar anyway, plus there’s a good chance he screws up and leaves something out there.
That said… I’m going to open this up to our esteemed readers: what’s the scoop with Edgar? Has his vision gotten significantly worse from even last year?