You know, looking over the all-star rosters tonight, I realized I don’t care anymore. And then I realized why. These are the players that apparently aren’t all-stars:
Adrian Beltre
Bobby Abreu
J.D. Drew
Frank Thomas
Melvin Mora
If it weren’t for Barry Bonds, all three guys in the NL have a decent case for MVP, much less all-star. Abreu, Drew, Thomas, and Mora are half of the top eight major league players in on base percentage. These guys are among the fifteen or so best position players in the game this year, and they aren’t all-stars? But Moises Alou is? I love Miguel Cabrera‘s potential, but he’s not better than Abreu or Drew at anything except playing for the manager who picked the reserves.
Growing up, I loved the all-star game. Now, I probably won’t even watch it. Between interleague play and MLB.tv, its not like I haven’t seen these guys play. And the illusion that its the best of each league being represented was shattered a long time ago. Any all-star game that doesn’t include a guy like Bobby Abreu, Adrian Beltre, or Melvin Mora is just a joke.
On Molitor — my personal theory is that on a veteran-laden team such as the M’s, there’s really very little for a hitting coach to do. Lamar Johnson was a scapegoat after last season, and while I’m pretty sure Paul Molitor isn’t hurting the M’s this year, I can’t imagine how he’s helping the likes of Edgar, Boone, Olerud, etc.
Today’s game in quotes about Justin Leone.
“Leone’s playing!”
“At short?”
“Awww, don’t swing at– nooo.”
“Get there- ahhhh.”
“No, don’t… gahhhh.”
“As a shortstop, he’s uh… an adequate third baseman.”
I’m happy to see Leone play, and I know he’s nervous, but jeeeez:
2nd: 4 pitches, K
5th: 4 pitches, 3 watched strikes, 1 foul, K
The really bad thing about this is that Leone’s presence in the lineup meant the team saw a couple more pitches than they likely would have with Aurilia in there. Which reminds me.
Mariners and pitches seen/PA
Dave Hansen, professional hitter, 4.28
Olerud: 4.10
Ibanez: 4.03
Martinez: 3.97
Bocachica: 3.94
Boone: 3.87
AL AVERAGE HITTER: 3.83
Wilson: 3.81 (a career high since coming over from Cincy)
Spiezio: 3.73
Bloomquist: 3.72
Cabrera: 3.68
Winn: 3.65
Aurilia: 3.63
Ichiro!: 3.57
Borders: 3.28
As frustrated as I’ve been seeing these guys hack at first pitches to quickly ground out, I wouldn’t have been surprised if I’d seen some of them with “2.10” or something shocking like that.
Now P/PA doesn’t necc mean anything: you can be good and swing early, like the good version of Nomar, and you can see a ton of pitches and not be effective, like late Rickey Henderson. But generally speaking, good hitters can work deep in counts and have much higher pitch/plate appearance rates (and K/BB numbers as well, since those only occur deep in counts). It’s rare to find a hitter who sees many pitches and stinks (of the ML top 10 P/PA, the weakest is Mark Bellhorn and his ~.800 OPS.. driven by his ridiculous .382 OBP.
Meanwhile, the bottom 10 includes Sean Casey, who is having a ridiculous year I think is a fluke, Vlad Guerrero, who has always been like this and is a terrific free-swinging hitter, Ivan Rodriguez, and Craig Biggio (who used to see a lot more pitches than this if I remember).
There’s no great generalization to be made. The Angels were succesful swinging early and often one year, but not the year before or after. Sometimes having a lot of numbers doesn’t mean you have any additional insight.
Still, stop hacking! Get your pitch and drive it. Isn’t Molitor supposed to help them with their hitting approaches?
And another thing — this team actually has decent speed. I hear Ichiro runs pretty well. Randy Winn, while not a great hitter, does have speed. Hiram Bocachica and Jolbert Cabrera are not what I’d call slow. Miguel Olivo, despite being a catcher, runs pretty well. And Bret Boone is much quicker than people give him credit for — he’s stolen bases at an 85% clip over the past two and a half seasons, including going 16-for-19 last season and 7-for-8 this year.
People see Edgar and Olerud and assume the whole team is slow, but it’s not true. Speed isn’t the problem, folks.
Four runs in three games.
Ladies and gentlemen, your 2004 Seattle Mariners’ “offense”.
Just in case you weren’t already convinced, Bob Finnigan is an idiot.
If last Sunday’s trade of Garcia is any indication, Lincoln made a sound hire in Bill Bavasi.
Sure, lets take his one good move out of the context of the unbelievably awful offseason he engineered and conclude that he’s capable of swindling talent at will, despite a long track record that says its not true.
With Tejada out of the picture, and the Mariners not a serious player in the Vladimir Guerrero chase, the mistake might have been not to sign or trade for players with speed.
What is sportswriters obsession with speed? The teams that are stealing the most bases this year; Anaheim, Tampa Bay, Baltimore, St. Louis, and Milwaukee. They rank 12th, 21st, 11th, 5th, and 23rd in runs scored respectively. And if you’re going to argue that the Cardinals are scoring a lot of runs because of Tony Womack’s legs and not the bats of Scott Rolen, Albert Pujols, and Jim Edmonds, then you’re a fool. Teams that are built on fast players don’t score runs. Never have, never will. So, for the love of God, get over your love of speed.
On Leone: play him, at least while he’s up. Use Spiezio to rest Olerud at first, do whatever you have to do. But all he’s done is hit at two levels. He’s old for a prospect, sure. But what harm could it do to give him at bats against major league pitching and see if he’s a viable option in the lineup? The only objection I can see is that they’re showcasing Spiezio for a trade.
To which I would say: I think Spiezio’s pretty well established that this is an off season for him. Teams that are willint go take a gamble on him aren’t going to be more, or less, put off if the M’s find time to play Leone.
I missed today’s game because I was out playing baseball (ahhhh), but I wasn’t surprised to see Franklin’s line, because it’s what he does almost every start: not a lot of Ks, not a lot of walks, gives up the long ball at least once, and relies on his defense to get him through the game. It worked for a couple years, right?
Instead of re-hashing the last couple of games (like many of you, I’m sure, this season I’ve been no less a fan of the team and what’s going on in general, but I’m a lot less fanatical about making sure I see or listen to every game).
So how do the 2005 Mariners shape up as we head into the All-Star Break?
Lineup:
C: Miguel Olivo
C2: — but probably Dan Wilson because I’m going to be forced Dan Wilson for the rest of my life
1b: ?
2b: Bret Boone, unless they can trade him or bench him and his not-producing self immediately so his option doesn’t vest
SS: – open –
3B: Leone? Dobbs? Lopez?
LF: ?
CF: ?
RF: Ichiro!
DH: Jacobsen?
UTs: W.F. Bloomquist (arrgghhh), Ugueto
Some of this depends immediately on what the team can move. Right now the team’s got two veterans who might take over at first in Spiezio/Ibanez.
If they can find a taker (any taker) for Spiezio’s deal (3 years! $9m!), for instance, that opens up third and keeps first for Ibanez. If they can find a taker for Ibanez’s nutty deal (3 years! $12m!) that opens left field and keeps first for Spiezio. If they move both, well, that’d be pretty sweet.
Similarly, Randy Winn’s trouble unless they can dump him and his heating-up bat ($11m for 3 years — does anyone know the details of his option year in 2006?). Would he play left or a bad center? Reed’s not a natural centerfielder, as Dave notes, but I can’t imagine he’s worse than Winn out there. But if Winn doesn’t move, is the team willing to pay him $3.3m to be a pretty good 4th OFer?
The move we’d really like to see, of course, is signing Beltran to the monster deal. But there are other interesting options. Carlos Delgado is a tremendous left-handed power hitter who will almost certainly face a huge cut in salary on the free agent market. Plus, he’s cool. Con, he’s 32, and this is not a team that needs to invest a lot of money in declining veterans unless it’s a good value.
Magglio Ordonez plays right, he’s only 30, but a right-handed hitter. Still…
Third we’ve got some interesting options. Glaus may be available, if his career’s not ended by his injuries, or may play first. Or there’s Koskie, who has been underrated defensively and offensively (and isn’t hitting quite as well this year)… buuut 31.
It’s all Beltran when it comes to the lineup. As for the other positions (like SS) I’ll get to that in a second.
The other real danger we’re going to have is that the M’s fall prey to the same trap that many, many other clubs do, and reward Jolbert Cabrera/Hiram Bocachica for being useful players with multi-year deals. If you can find them in the discount bin, there’s always more where that came from. It’s harsh to say, but it’s true: those are not the kind of players teams should expend their resources retaining.
SP1: Moyer
SP2: Pineiro
SP3: Soriano if he’s healthy, maybe King Felix.
SP4-5: ??
Here’s Derek’s Strategy of Doom: See if anyone bites on Franklin, and stock the rotation with Blackley and the rest of the Tacoma guys: Madritsch, Nageotte. If we can’t get Beltran, find the best glove man available and stick him in center. (Cameron!!) Find the best glove man to pick it at short, and run him out there. If Boone’s still here, that’s fine.
These guys can come cheap, too.
Play stellar defense. Make those guys trust in their stuff and willing to go after batters. Rack up the Ks, turn the balls in play into outs. Make these guys look like aces. Even Ryan Franklin, who doesn’t have the strikeout stuff of some of these guys, racked up a ton of wins and guady ERAs with the defensive star Mariners.
Then trade them. Oh yes. Someone nibbles on the line for one of these guys you don’t think is coming around (say, isn’t improving their changeup and doens’t want to ), you trade them for decent prospects to restock the farm system.
Or don’t trade them: hopefully this way they’ll develop as pitchers and become the young core of a dominant M’s rotation (um, though frankly I don’t see that in these guys).
And the bullpen: punt. Hasegawa’s gone if we can unload him: he’s Ryan Franklin without the stamina to start. Guardado’s gone if there’s a taker. Don’t spend much and re-stock.
Even with Beltran, this isn’t a team that’s going to win 90 games next year unless Delgado signs for $1, Koskie signs for $1, Beltran signs for $1, and Rafael Palmerio agrees to DH for $1. But it’s a better team that offers potential for the future and hope to the franchise, rather than some kind of abstract treadmill-running road to nowhere.
I’d also like to warn our dear readers in advance that I will be even more agitated and unreachable from July 3-25th, and may be dropping bike racing references here. Go Lance! And go Tyler!
If my middle name wasn’t “Milhous”, it would be “Customer Service”. By popular request, for your desktop wallpaper purposes:
Full-sized Safeco Field shot, 7/1/2004, 1600×1200
Slightly reduced Safeco Field shot, 7/1/2004, 1024×768
And when you speak of me, speak of me kindly.