Links updated, etc
I’ve finally caught up updating the links from what we had on the old USSM site. I uh… I haven’t entirely worked out how to get sorting to work properly: it was just a list in the old days, and now it’s all in our super-cool database and generated each time you load the page, which means I’ve got some more work to do to get that up and tweaked.
And thanks for the suggestions on what we could do: I’ve got a list I’m trying to work through, but I appreciate the emails and comments.
A Tale of Two Villones
To expand on what Dave said:
Ron Villone the reliever has posted a 3.42 ERA in 50 innings of work. Per nine innings, he’s allowed 6.1 hits, 4.9 walks and .7 homers, with opposing hitters batting .193 against him.
Ron Villone the starter has posted a 5.63 ERA in 48 innings of work. Per nine innings, he’s allowed 10.5 hits, 5.3 walks and 1.1 homers, with opposing hitters batting ~.290 against him.
First Game
Luke went to his first game Tuesday night, one month and one day after entering the world (Buhner M’s HOF night, of course — you can’t tell from the picture, but I’m wearing my “Bone #19” jersey in old-school teal). Despite the loss and the cold (and the fact that he slept through most of it), a good time was had by all. His next game is Edgar Day on October 2nd. He’s one lucky kid, I’m telling you.
Villone
Let’s assume Villone can get out of this second inning, which right now, looks like a pretty big assumption. That will bring his line in the last 21 innings to the following:
21 IP, 32 H, 25 ER, 4 HR, 15 BB, 12 K
That’s a sparkly 10.71 ERA in his last 5 starts. I think he can kiss that contract extension goodbye.
More self-promotion
Since we’re in the self-promoting mood, I did an interview with Bryan Smith for his prospect blog. A couple Mariners related questions and we discuss general prospect theory, which may interest a few of you.
Ignore the text that was here earlier. If you don’t know what I’m referring to, hooray. Less confusion for you.
Quick self-promotion
Check out this (free) column of mine at Baseball Prospectus on how to become a fan favorite. See if you can count all the Mariner references that snuck in there.
Game Report, Rays over M’s 9-0
Overheard at the ballpark, 8-24-2004: the Ripkin-Costner story, which won’t die
Best crack of the night: Jason, when Bloomquist came up as “Rock You Like A Hurricane” played: “Hurricane? He’s not even a small craft advisory.”
First, the Mariners brought out their stupid beer-garden destroying stands for this homestand. I have no idea why. It’s not as if they needed the capacity, or there’s a marquee matchup this week. Why the team would destroy one of the only unique and cool things about the stadium in order to sell — what, 12 tickets? — is beyond comprehension. Attendance was announced at 34,000, but again, that has to be either sales (as opposed to gate) or a galling lie.
Second, and I’m going to be totally blunt about this —
anyone who thinks scorekeeping isn’t an issue isn’t watching games at Safeco. I’m entirely serious here: when we argue about the importance of runs versus unearned runs, and the issue of scorer subjectivity comes up, that is really important. Tonight there were several plays that should have been errors and in one case *was* an error where the scorekeeper made a different call.
For example: man on third. Jacobsen fields a weak hit to him and stares down the runner at third, who isn’t going but is clearly jerking Jacobsen around. Meanwhile, Boone doesn’t break to cover first but instead takes his time getting there. When Jacobsen finally turns to get the runner, Boone’s not there and… runner safe.
What do you score that?
I score it an error on Jacobsen. There was an out to be made and he didn’t make it. You could even argue an error on Boone for not getting there in time, which might have made up for it, but I think it’s an error on Jacobsen.
You might even argue it’s a fielder’s choice. With no runner on, it’s an out, with the runner on third, something happened… maybe.
What it’s not is an infield single. Which is what it was scored. My scorebook has two more errors than the official count. You can say that scorekeepers don’t score errors on plays that deserve them but certainly don’t score errors on plays that don’t deserve them, thus consistenly moving the bar one direction. And I would say “bah” to you, because that’s crazy. The Safeco Field scorer is so parsimonious with his errors you’d think he had to pull them out of his own wallet.
Madritsch had a great changeup I think may have been the best pitch of the game, thrown with the same arm motion and everything, but it came out at seventy-something and left batters trying to slow their swing while moving the bat out… it was nice.
So here’s my question to you, dear reader: what’re the Mariners going to call those awful seats that destroy the beer garden?
Outfield View Reserved?
Select Outfield View Bleacher?
Garden Club Outfield Centerfield View Box?
And where are they going to stick the next set of seats, and how will they manage to mess up something cool about the stadium?
Selling tickets to the Bullpen Pub
Building a stand of seats over the bullpens
Selling standing room only tickets (this *will* happen if we ever get to the playoffs again and advance)
Grrr.
Oh, Kazmir! Looked shaky. Throws fast. Some of his stuff looked good, some… not so good. He certainly wasn’t a flame-throwing, batter-roasting phenom, but his motion looked pretty smooth (note: my seats don’t have a particularly good view for judging that). He threw a lot of pitches. Looked much less comfortable with men on than with the bases clear, but then, that’s working from the stretch for you.
Ouch
So this is what we’ve become. When talking to a friend of mine about the promotion of Scott Kazmir for tonight’s game, he replies:
Perhaps they just wanted to avoid those tough Southern League lineups and let him face inferior competition this time around.
I had no reply. We’re now being mocked by Devil Ray fans. This may be the low point in franchise history.
Carlos Delgado
One thing that amazes me when I talk to folks about the upcoming offseason is that there are still so many people who want the Mariners to pursue Carlos Delgado. Frankly, to me, he’s one of those players with enough red flags to attract half of Spain. I can’t imagine any realistic scenario where I’d offer Delgado a multi-year contract, especially not at the money he’s going to ask for. A quick 2004 comparison.
Delgado
.241/.346/.476
League Average 1B
.263/.344/.442
Jacobsen
.303/.379/.550
Delgado is a lot closer to B than C this year.
First baseman with knee problems do not age well. Delgado is already showing signs of decline and health issues, and at age 32, it’s more likely that this decline is the beginning of the end than an aberration that he’ll recover from. Even before this season, the prospects of signing Delgado to a multi-year contract and having it work out looked dim. BP’s PECOTA system projected Delgado to tail off significantly starting this year. He has been worth about 6 wins above replacement each of the past three years and was coming off a career best season, and PECOTA still pegged him as likely to produce just 4.7 wins over replacement this year, 3.6 next year, 2.8 in 2006, 2.1 in 2007, and 1.6 in 2008. Based on that projection, before his poor season and injury are factored in, you don’t want to be paying more than about $7 million to Delgado next year, $5.5 million in 2006, and $4.5 million in 2007. You probably don’t want to be signed up for his 2008 season at any price. And the projection after factoring in his poor 2004 season is going to be significantly more negative. Anyone think Carlos is going to sign a 3 year, $18 million contract with decreasing salaries this offseason? Me either.
Certainly, I don’t expect Delgado to hit .240 for the rest of his career, but I can’t imagine any scenario where I’d rather be paying Delgado $10 million per year than Bucky $300,000. Delgado and Magglio Ordonez (with his chronic serious knee issues) are two big name free agents that the Mariners need to run far, far away from.
Meche redux
There’s a lot of good stuff from the contributors in the comments on the Meche thread from last night. I was a bit surprised at how resounding the support for Meche was, with every single person chiming in that they feel he’ll be worth $2+ million next year. I don’t think it’s quite so clear cut, but I do agree that he’s shown enough to at least warrent a contract tender.
It appears that there is little concern for Meche’s future health, which to me is still a significant factor. The history of pitchers recovering from labrum surgery is downright terrible, and Meche is basically blazing a new trail here. He was worked pretty hard last year, and I can’t see any reason to commit to him for more than a year at a time. Meche’s injury history scares me enough where I’m not sure I’ll ever be in favor of giving him a multi-year contract. As such, I don’t necessarily view him as any long term solution to the franchise’s pitching situation like some apparently do. Even in the best case scenario, where he has figured it out and pitches well the next two years, the M’s will then have to either let him walk or commit a lot of money over a lot of years to keep him around. With no prior cases of how labrum recoverers age, this would basically be a guess and a prayer, and considering the volatility of pitchers anyways, it’s probably not one I’m comfortable making.
I just don’t see that many ways that Meche can help this club in the long term. As such, I would support moving him if the Mariners could get talent in return. And by talent, I don’t mean Brandon Inge.