2005 Managerial Speculation
I’m going to add to this as we work on it, so please, if you don’t see someone here, be patient.
Internal organizational candidates
Minor league managers
Dan Rohn. Manager, Tacoma Rainiers.
Rohn’s been recognized as a fine minor league manager. He’s a player’s manager in a different way than Melvin was. Where Melvin let the team run, Rohn’s happy to shake things up without beating up on people — dumb stuff like cancelling BP if the team’s dragging, for instance. Rohn’s been able to get a lot out of his players and keep a team together even as it was pillaged by the M’s. Rohn’s tactical game is predictable in some situations, which at the major league level would be scouted and exploited.
Dave Brundage. Manager, San Antonio Missions. Organization loves him, he’s a fiery motivator type. Doesn’t care for stats at all, and his teams run like crazy on the basepaths. It’s worked for him, though, and it’s not as if he’s making really low-percentage plays. What I really like about Brundage is that while he may not care about stats, he’d clock his mom if it meant he could win a game. If the opposing team has a terrible player at third who can’t charge bunts, he’ll have the team bunt at that guy until they sub him out. If their catcher has a hitch in his throw, he’ll steal bases every pitch he can get away with it. If you’re as tired of seeing Melvin mechanically steal a base instead of using brain power to figure out how to steal a game, Brundage is the manager you want.
Both of these guys would be upgrades over Melvin. They have managerial experience where he does not, they’re used to working with young players, which Melvin did not, and in particular players they’re going to try and build the team around. Rohn is a good choice for managerial experience, Brundage would likely remake the team’s style in his image, with all the risk and reward inherent in that kind of project.
Bryan Price, pitching coach, Mariners. Price was a finalist in the managerial running last time. He was thought to lack the required experience, but someone who might take over for Melvin down the road. Which doesn’t make sense, since Melvin had no managerial experience to speak of either. Anyway, Price’s reputation’s taken a huge hit since Piniella. It seems strange that Price managed to win Piniella’s respect and turn Lou’s greatest weakness into a strength by demonstrating to Lou the benefits of shorter leashes, rest patterns, and Price also did a lot of work in when to pull guys against leaving them in, bullpen management, and so on. And yet under Melvin, supposedly a more progressive thinker, the team went to endless L/R platoon matchups out of the bullpen, where guys warmed up eight times a game only to not come in, and inexplicably wore out their starting pitchers over seasons and over games.
What happened? Did Price get dumb? Stripped of authority? Did Melvin not listen to him? Only Price can answer these questions, but no one’s asking.
In a larger sense, pitching coaches almost never go on to become good managers, which seems weird but… it’s also true. We can speculate on why this is — I personally don’t see why someone smart like Price couldn’t pick it up — but it remains that it’s a huge barrier to overcome.
External candidates
Former managers
Don Baylor, former manager, Rockies 1993-1998, Cubs 2001-2002. No. No way. Along with Larry Bowa (see below), if your team’s considering Don Baylor you should hope you can still get your season ticket deposit back.
Larry Bowa, former manager, Phillies 2001-2004, Padres 1987-1988. Bowa’s a bad manager. There’s no other way to put this. He’s a fiery, competitive guy but he alienates his players quickly, his teams underperform, he has trouble running his pitching staffs… if you want a firebrand manager, there are far, far better choices. As much as people are worried that hiring internal candidates means we’ll have trouble attracting free agents, I think Bowa would be a larger problem for potential FAs.
Bob Brenley, former manager, Diamondbacks, 2001-2004. If you couldn’t get enough of Bob Melvin, here’s the guy you want to replace him. Yeagh. Ill talent evaluator, terrible in-game tactician. No hire.
Larry Dierker, former manager, Astros, 1997-2001. Author of “This Ain’t Brain Surgery” which I highly recommend as a good book. Known as one of the most sucessful managers in using statistical analysis and strategy along side conventional wisdom and the Book, Dierker’s largest problem was that Bagwell and Biggio turned against him and drove him out. Dierker’s teams consistently over-performed, reaching the playoffs on modest budgets, and he did an outstanding job of getting good seasons out of players who would later collapse. Got two good seasons out of Carl Everett, for instance, and managed to keep Carl out of trouble for the most part. I spent a good part of an hour interviewing Dierker for Baseball Prospectus Radio, and I have to say that I was greatly impressed with his obvious intelligence. Almost certainly willing to return to managing in the right situation. That said… Dierker hasn’t gotten a lot of attention for recent openings, and I wonder if there’s an issue with him not being old-school enough. I think Dierker would be an outstanding candidate for the job.
Jim Fergosi, former manager Angels, 1978-1981, White Sox, 1986-1988, Phillies, 1991-1996, Blue Jays, 1999-2000. Fergosi’s got over two thousand major league games under his belt, and the only real season you could point to as an example in his favor is the 1993 Phillies team that won 97 games. Besides that his career is a long exercise in sub-modesty.
Art Howe, former manager, Houston Astros, 1989-1993, Oakland A’s, 1996-2002, New York Mets, 2004-2004. Howe’s an average manager. I don’t mean that as a jab at all — I only mean that Howe’s more of an organizational soldier than he is a Piniella-type personality guy. With the A’s, he played the kind of ball they wanted for the most part, and leaned heavily on Rick Peterson to handle the pitching staff. In New York, things didn’t go so well, but he faced the same issues all the other Mets managers had. The greatest knock on Howe is that his A’s teams appeared really badly coached. As much as we might mock the M’s for this at times, Howe’s A’s teams went into the playoffs and made terrible gaffe after gaffe that cost them games and series. That kind of poor preparation sticks with me — it’s preventable, and Howe should be held accountable for it. Better than Bowa, though.
Davey Johnson, former manager Mets 1984-1990, Reds 1993-1995, Orioles 1996-1997, Dodgers 1999-2000. I’d forgotten those two years with the Dodgers. Johnson was a master of the death-by-paper-cuts approach to managing, a guy who would hunt for every advantage, real or imagined, in every game, and over the course of the season would squeak out more than he should have. He also consistently angered or alienated organizations he worked for, players who took the field for him… Johnson’s a guy you might want as a bench coach, if you thought he wouldn’t be constantly stirring up trouble. Supposedly comfortable in retirement and declining all inquiries.
Grady Little, former manager Red Sox, 2002-2003. Little’s always going to be roasted for the Martinez Mistake, and that probably inordinately hurts his chances at future jobs. Which sucks. If you feel sorry for Little, please send donuts. To me. Because as Sox fans will be happy to tell you, Little made many mini-Martinez Mistakes all season long. Their lamentations aside, Little did run two top-notch teams to excellent records, though, while managing difficult personalities — though the 2004 super-chemistry is credited to Manny, because all chemistry changes have to be attributable to someone. Grady Little doesn’t seem to bring much to the table for the Mariners job, and seems unlikely to be a serious candidate.
Carlos Tosca, former manager Blue Jays
Bobby Valentine, former manager Rangers 1985-1992, Mets 1996-2002, also has managed in Japan and is currently managing the Chiba Lotte Marines. Valentine is smart and stupid. He’s an intelligent, funny man who somehow seems to alienate his organizations. He’s had a keen eye for player talent — one of Valentine’s more famous conflicts with Mets management came when he told them they needed to spend whatever it took to get Ichiro and they blew him off. But then again, Valentine loved Rey Ordonez and refused to pinch-hit for him even when it was absolutely called for. I found him tactically smart but with blindspots (Ordonez), others disagree with that. Valentine knows more about baseball than anyone else on this list, if I may, but the application of that knowledge is sometimes baffling.
Interestingly enough, he’s being mentioned as a strong candidate to be re-hired in New York, which would be bizarre, given all they went through. Valentine can opt out of his contract with Chiba, but has said that he’s happy working in Japan again.
Earl Weaver, former manager, Baltimore Orioles, 1968-1982, 1985-1986. Oh, why not? If Jack McKeon can come back, why not a 74-year old Earl Weaver? Fun side note: even with those two bad teams at the end, Earl Weaver’s career winning percentage was .583. Between 1968-1982, his worst team was the 1972 Orioles who went 80-74. He won with speed and with power, with youth and with veterans.
Jimy Williams, former manager, Blue Jays, 1986-1989, Red Sox, 1997-2001, Astros, 2002-2004. I uh… boy. Williams is good with the press. He’s an amusing old, old school manager. He uh… can we just say no to Williams and move on?
Guys looking to move up
Chris Chambliss. Unfortuantely he’s constantly put on the minority-candidate carousel, and deserves better. Lot of minor league managerial experience, lot of major league managerial experience. Check out this interview with Chambliss, by Jeff Bower back when Bower was writing for BP instead of telling kids to get off his lawn. Chambliss is another fiery dude, but apparantly that’s only in your favor if.. I’m better off not finishing that sentence, I think. Chambliss would be an interesting hire, for certain.
Joey Cora, third base coach, White Sox, also has managed teams though not in MLB.
I’m sorry, but it’s so hard for me to think of li’l Joey Cora, grinning, running around, crying, as the manager of the Mariners. I know that’s dumb, but that’s Mariners fandom for you sometimes: it’s rewarding and absurd, all at once.
Rudy Jaramillo, hitting coach, Rangers. I don’t know him from Adam.
Joe Maddon, bench coach, Anaheim Angels. Frequently touted by Peter Gammons as one of the next great managers, Maddon’s name has circulated a lot this year for managing vacancies. I’m going to be totally up-front about this: Maddon apparantly keeps track of a bunch of stats he’s made up on the team, like “keep-alives” where you get on base after the guy in front of you makes an out. That’s exactly the kind of weird, stats-to-support-assertions thing we don’t need. I would rather have a guy who doesn’t particularly care about statistics making decisions based on his impression of hitter ability (breaking ball pitcher… who do I have who can hit that…) than crazy small-sample-size stats like keep-alives. The guy doing talent evaluation could possibly be good at that and make good choices. There’s no way a manager who tries to draw anything out of those random weird stats, much less make decisions based on them, is making better decisions than they would rolling dice. That aside… the fact that he’s even looking at stats is sort of encouraging.
Coming up! More crazy candidates!
Comments
112 Responses to “2005 Managerial Speculation”
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No Larry Bowa! He’s fine as a coach (like when he was the M’s 3rd Base coach), but I wouldn’t want him to be the head man. In his two managerial jobs (SD and Philadelphia), he’s had serious clashes with players and it seems that he has a personality that simply wears on the players as time goes on. I think the best way I can describe Bowa is that he has the intensity and firery nature of Pinella, but does not have the other side to him. With Lou, he knew when to get pissed and fire up the team, but he also knew when to lighten things up a little bit also. Bowa does not seem to make such a distinction.
I think today’s press conference — 40 minutes away — will tell us a lot about whether Bavasi-Armstong-Lincoln want a “proven veteran” manager or will be willing to roll the dice on a guy who hasn’t managed in the majors before, ala Melvin. In other words, hopefully we’ll know within an hour whether guys like Rohn and Brundage will get serious consideration.
Any inkling on whether coaches will be fired — Price, Myers, etc.? Or people under the media radar, like Frank Mattox?
I wonder if Brundage could be taught to respect stats? Probably not, which is too bad, because your description of him is just the kind of intelligent agression I’d love to see out of my manager. These types are fun to play for and easy for players to get behind. Given a choice of Rohn or Brundage, who do you like best Derek? Right now I like either of them better than most of the outside guys.
According to ESPN, the coaches are all gone, except Price, who has a contract through 05. I’d guess they keep him around until they name a manager and see if that manager wants to bring in *his* guy. I doubt the organization knows what they think about Price anymore.
I agree with your comments re Bowa. He is not what this team needs. Overall, I think the selection of a manager is much less important to the future direction of this team than a change in philosophy from the top (i.e., the GM) down. If the manager is given players like Spiezio, Ibanez and Villone as free agents, then it doesn’t really matter much who we have on the bench calling the shots.
I am willing to give Bill Bavasi one more chance. If he screws up this offseason as much as he did last year (or did Gillick screw it up?), then what we need is a new GM, not a new manager.
Ooops, didn’t see Dave’s comment below about coaches’ contracts.
Some time soon, I’d like to see an in-depth post discussing Bryan Price’s merits as a pitching coach. He’s had a genuis reputation for a few years even though his hurlers in 2002 and beyond have not put up good numbers relative to league performance. Is his genius perception or reality, and will the Mariners take another season to find out?
I think Bavasi shouldn’t get all the credit for the front-office screwing up this year. He came in a bit late to get all of it. Plus with the Garcia trade he earned a bit of redemption, let’s see if he can keep that mojo going into the off-season.
If we are going to have a high percentage of young pitchers on the team I think it would make sense for Chavez to be the pitching coach as he’s worked with most all of them. If I remember right, isn’t that how BP earned his rep, by coming up from AAA?
Dumb thing…
… how about both? They sound like they have complementary skills.
Response to #6 – I too would like to see someone do some deep analysis of Price’s contribution to the organization and pitching staff. I have to admit that I am less impressed with his skills than I once was. I was particularly disappointed with Nageotte (sp?) and Blackley when they were called up. I figured that BP would take them under his wing and help build upon the foundation that they received in the minors. As far I can recall, I don’t think BP paid any special attention to these guys when they came up and that is disappointing to me.
That said, I don’t think BP is a “bad” pitching coach. I just don’t think that he’s the second-coming of Leo Mazzone or anything, either.
in-house names:
Dan Rohn (the guy I like, along with the prob. not available T.K.)
Dave Brundage
Rene Lachemann
John McLaren
San Perlozzo
Joey Cora (hey, there are rumors about him in NY!)
newly fired:
Larry Bowa
Art Howe
Carlos Tosca
Bob Brenly
possibly still to be fired:
Lee Mazzilli
Ken Macha
Jim Tracy
possibly off the market now:
Phil Garner
John Gibbons
bench guys looking for a break:
Joe Maddon
Gary Varsho
HOF-ers who might get a shot:
Paul Molitor
Robin Yount
perennially stuck on the minority candidate list:
Willie Randolph
Chris Chambliss
Davey Lopes
Don Baylor
Hal McRae
Jerry Manuel
Ken Griffey Sr
Ron Washington
cheerful “character” retreads:
Grady Little
Charlie Manuel
MOR re-treads:
Buddy Bell
Jims Williams, Fregosi, Leyland & Riggleman
Tony Muser
Mike Hargrove
guys who may be loving retirement too much:
Davey Johnson
Larry Dierker
Tom Kelly (FWIW, Kelly told The Post he was uninterested in the Mets job: “I’ve had a number of calls from different teams over the years,” Kelly said in a phone interview. “I’ve politely and graciously appreciated teams’offer to come in for an interview and things like that, and I’ve rejected all of them. And I don’t see any reason in my mind as we speak why I would change my mind on that.”)
guys who should stay in retirement (or overseas)
Kevin Kennedy
Buck Martinez
Bobby Valentine
Re #6: Bavasi deserves 90% of the blame. Sure he came in late, but that doesn’t excuse him for awful contracts to the likes of Spiezio, Ibanez, Shiggy, etc. He may have retrieved 1 chip out of 10 that he blew in the Freddy Garcia trade, but he’s still a moron who deserves more blame. I think he deserves more blame than Melvin, who did deserve his firing. If Melvin goes, so should Bavasi. They’re the rag-tag duo who caused this catastrophe.
I think Ibanez performed up to expectations and would of been even better had he not been hurt, wouldn’t blame bavasi there. Spiezio however was a mistake, but he did look ok for awhile. Freddy trade was theft! Reed is great and Olivo needs a better hitting coach. How could bavasi have expected shiggy to tank so bad this year anyway?
The San Antonio Express-News did a piece at the end of the season on Dave Brundage, and with his ability and the state of the coaching now, the people in the Missions front office didn’t epxect him to be back next season. They thought he would be in Tacoma or Seattle. If we go with an in-house candidate, Brundage has my full endorsement.
Listening to the press conference, it sounds as though Bavasi’s looking for a veteran …..
Re #12:
The point is not that Ibanez “performed up to expectations.” The point is that they massively overpaid him for what he would, and did, contribute.
Also, Shiggy’s demise was widely predicted by statistical analysis — his peripheral numbers were pretty bad and he relied almost exclusively on the great defense of last year’s team. It was inevitable that he would regress.
Bavasi deserves blame on both of those counts (though it is not clear that Gillick wasn’t at least as involved and, therefore, responsible).
Personally, I agree with those who’d like to see us hire Rohn or Brundage; of the ex-managers out there, the only one I like better is Larry Dierker (hmmm . . . Brundage as manager, Dierker as bench coach?). I’d also like to see Fuson brought on board–kick Mattox to the curb, put Jongewaard back in charge of the draft, make Fuson the #2, if he’ll take it (which I think he would); if necessary, fire Bavasi and make Fuson GM. I don’t see that happening, though.
I agree, too, that we need a sharper evaluation of Bryan Price, though it seems I’ve retained more of my high opinion of him than some here; but if he goes, I’d rather see Jim Slaton replace him. Nothing against Chaves by any means, I just like Slaton better. (The difference in Ken Cloude pitching for him was remarkable, to say the least.)
How can Molitor not be among the likely candidates?
“Listening to the press conference, it sounds as though Bavasi’s looking for a veteran”–Comment by Jim Thomsen — 10/4/2004 @ 11:38 am
or not. In classic GM speak, he is very carefully not ruling anybody out of the mix — veteran or new, on the staff or not, interviewed before or not — so that nothing rebounds when they make a final decision.
J … Can you provide a link to that San Antonio article? I tried to get it via the Express-News Web site, and they wanted me to pay for it.
Can anybody post a transcript of the conference? Can link to well pretty much any audio or video here at work.
Or rather can’t link to anything here. Or apparently type for that matter.
You may have to register, but they don’t require that you pay for it. At least they didn’t when I registered.
http://www.mysanantonio.com/sports/baseball/missions/stories/MYSA090604.1C.BBMmissions.5501252d.html
If that doesn’t work, I can try to post parts of the article here.
You’re right, MSB … now that I’ve heard more, Bavasi’s saying nothing by saying everything. And frankly, none of us should have expected more out of a press conference. These things are carefully crafted to have as little substance as possible … sort of like a presidential debate.
How can Molitor not be among the likely candidates?
Because he’s done absolutely nothing distinctive as the batting coach?
These things are carefully crafted to have as little substance as possible … sort of like a presidential debate.
Yeah, and the local talk radio host is slagging the M’s for this. Hmmm, the code words “club in transition” are being used. What I read is the M’s realize this is a lot taller mountain than they thought even earlier this year, and they are going to carefully diminish expectations.
as bad as this season has been, it could get worse.
don’t forget they hired Jimy Williams a month ago as a “roving advisor”
“Yeah, and the local talk radio host is slagging the M’s for this.”– comment by eponymous coward — 10/4/2004 @ 12:00 pm
well, Softy likes things to be very, very simple
“as bad as this season has been, it could get worse.don’t forget they hired Jimy Williams a month ago as a “roving advisor”–Comment by hurt — 10/4/2004 @ 12:07 pm
Actually, he was hired to ’study their farm system’. “Asked to confirm that Williams is working as a consultant for the club, general manager Bill Bavasi said, “That’s too strong a description.” It sounded at the time (as he was just looking at San Antonio for them) that it was doing Jimy a favor upon his firing.
What do we think about John McLaren? Interesting thought. I have to completely agree on Molitor. You have even less predictors for success than you did with Box.
re: Larry Dierker; he writes a column for the Houston Chronicle, and has another book in the works; when ‘It ain’t brain surgery’ came out, an article said: “He would like to manage again but is not desperate to do it.”
Before Melvin was hired, Derek and I had a little discussion on the Mariners Newsgroup about Dierker, who Derek also liked at that time. I like a lot of what Dierker did with Houston, and it encourages me that DMZ is consistently positive about him, but I had (and have) some issues with how he used pitchers. Derek thought it wasn’t so much of an issue once teamed with Vern Ruhle, and that if Dierker was teamed with a good pitching coach (like BP — at least at that time Derek thought BP was good) he would be fine. It didn’t seem to me that Ruhle was all that moderating an influence.
Ruhle was there for all but a season and a half of Dierker’s time as Astros manager; he was Dierker’s pitching coach from 1997 until he was
fired in June of 2000, all decent teams except the last. Here were the starting pitchers and workloads during that time:
Daryl Kile:
1997 34 GS, 255.2 IP
Mike Hampton:
1997 34 GS, 223 IP
1998 32GS, 211.2 IP
1999 34 GS, 239 IP
Shane Reynolds:
1997 30 GS, 181 IP
1998 35 GS, 233.1 IP
1999 35 GS, 231.7 IP
2000 22 GS, 131 IP
Chris Holt:
1997 32 GS, 209.7 IP
[missed 1998]
1999 26 GS, 164 IP
Jose Lima:
1998 33 GS, 233.3 IP
1999 35 GS, 246.3 IP
2000 33 GS, 196.3 IP
Sean Bergman:
1998 27 GS, 172 IP
1999 16 GS 99 IP
Pete Schourek:
1998 15 GS, 80 IP
Randy Johnson:
1998 11 GS, 84.3 IP
Scott Elarton:
1999 15 GS, 124 IP
2000 30 GS, 192.7 IP
Wade Miller:
2000 16 GS, 105 IP
That’s a lot of innings
thrown, especially by the horses, and the common denominator for most of these guys is injury or ineffectiveness in the years following their time with Dierker/Ruhle and the Astros (of course that doesn’t prove much, since the vast majority of pitchers break down, but . . .). In terms of high pitch counts, he may be no Dusty Baker, but I suspect there is a correlation between the end of the Dierker/Ruhle reign and some of the ineffectiveness or injury that followed with some of these pitchers.
I don’t remember exactly how Derek responded at that time, or whether he doesn’t think this is really much of an issue now (based on things he said in Derek’s interview of him or the book), or whether he thinks the other things Dierker does well would outweigh this one negative . . . but I would be interested in Derek’s response. Food for thought, anyway.
Personally, of the candidates discussed in the post, I like Maddon, Dierker, and Chambliss.
I’d guess Jimy Williams is a serious candidate simply because hiring an ex-manager in September, at about the same time you start leaking Melvin’s upcoming dismissal to the press, and then asserting the two moves are unrelated pegs my credulity meter off the chart. It’s also possible Williams ends up as a bench coach/eminence gris for someone like Maddon or Rohn.
They might give Bowa an interview out of courtesy, but nobody’s dumb enough to hire a guy who, when given assloads of top notch FA signees and in-house talent, turned it into nothing more than a slightly above .500 record and a divided clubhouse. Given the M’s nearly Japanese style emphasis on wa/team harmony, the idea they’d hand the team over to someone who’s the managerial equivalent of a bull in a china shop also does not pass the laugh test.
Lachemann? Well, I guess as long as we have a 95 loss team, we might as well put tridents on the caps and go for retreads. Also a non-starter, for obvious reasons (zero track record of success in two previous stints).
Why on earth would Jim Tracy be fired for winning a division title and generally doing a damned decent job of ekeing out what he can from his talent? Here’s something interesting- all four of Tracy’s Dodger teams have beaten their Pythagorean W-L projections (in other words, they have better records than you’d think they would based on runs scored and allowed). That’s 600 games of sample size that indicates Tracy’s a pretty good manager, and we all know DePodesta likes his stats.
Whatever coach we end up with… I hope he brings his own pitching coach with him. I want to see Prices’ head on a platter. Don’t let the door hit ya… on the way out.
#15, Alex — 10/4/2004 @ 10:50 am
Raul massively overpaid? He is ranked #3 as LF in AL on batting and guess what? He is not even top five of the salary. So I wonder where did you come out with that conclusion?
“Also, Shiggy’s demise was widely predicted by statistical analysis” No one expects shiggy to have as great year as last year. His career ERA from 1997 is 3.66. So how did you get this vision to tell he would have the 5.16era this year?
Not that this has anything to do with the coaching, but batting average does not a left fielder make. In terms of total offensive contribution, Ibanez was only a couple runs above average, and while I haven’t seen season-complete defensive stats, was below-average defensively. Just in the AL, you’d rather have Matsui, Lee, Ford, Guillen (if you want to put up with him), Byrnes. Even Lawton and Crawford put up better total contributions than Ibanez.
Ibanez was an average LF getting paid far more for far longer than any other average LF got this off-season, which was 1-2m for 1y.
Really dumb question: Why wouldn’t Price be a candidate?
JJ, this post might help a little
http://ussmariner.com/wp-trackback.php/928
Raul massively overpaid? He is ranked #3 as LF in AL on batting and guess what? He is not even top five of the salary. So I wonder where did you come out with that conclusion?
Um, Raul is #3 in batting AVERAGE. Which, as anyone who reads USSM should know, is a very misleading stat to use to gauge offensive performance (unless you want to assert that Ichiro > Barry as a hitter, or any number of dumb things based strictly on batting average).
Stats like VORP that account for slugging, walks, steals, GIDP and park effects put Raul in a class with guys like Craig Monroe (.293/.824 OPS in a shade less PA’s than Raul, and about 30 VORP), which is about right- Generic Outfielder.
An .825 OPS in LF is nothing to write home about, even with half your games in Safeco. did he have a decent year? Yeah. Is it likely he’ll decline from that decent year as he ages, and we’ll keep paying for it? Yeah. The problem wasn’t Ibanez- the problem was a 3 year deal at well over what guys like Sanders, Guillen and Cruz signed for. Yeah, it’s only a million or so a year. That’s the difference between a useful bench hitter and Willie Bloomquist.
Anyhee, to get back on track- Ken Griffey Sr. as a manager gives me the willies, because you KNOW what would be coming next- Griffey coming back in trade. Even if Cincy is paying a lot of the freight and he’s the DH, the idea of depending on someone who’s games played in this millenium are 111, 70, 53 and 80 strikes me as insanity- and it would clearly show the team’s going for schmaltz over substance.
Agree with DMZ on Ibanez. In addition, there is no evidence to suggest that any other teams were bidding for Ibanez at numbers anywhere near what the M’s ended up paying for him. It was as if the Mariners decided they HAD to have Ibanez and didn’t really care what they paid him. That is the mark of a bad front office.
WRT Shiggy, I agree that the depth of his decline may not have been predicted, but it was clear that he was not going to post the types of numbers he did last year. And, given that, the Mariners were foolish to pay an average middle reliever the amount of money that they paid him.
Interesting that no one thinks Price is up to the big job, even though he was in the top 3 last time. Is that political, for baseball reasons, or just because his stock has fallen? Also, among the obvious retreads with nothing to really recommend them, I’m suprised no one has mentioned Bob Boone.
“Ranked #3 as LF in AL on batting”? By what measure? Batting average, I suppose? That’s an extremely generous way to measure Ibanez, since almost all his value is tied up in his batting average and he does very little else.
Ibanez ranked ninth among AL left fielders in Value Above Replacement Player, which takes into account a player’s entire offensive contribution, right behind Matt Lawton and just ahead of Craig Monroe. He’s nowhere close to the third best (Carlos Lee):
http://www.baseball-analysis.com/statistics/vorp_player_by_pos2004.html
Sporting News is touting Terry Collins and the Bavasi/Anaheim connection…
Arrgh. Would you all please stop dredging up names before I can get to them? My fingers are dying out here.
Pitching coaches very rarely succeed as managers. (Ray Miller, Earl Weaver’s pitching coach, is your classic example. Did not a damn thing as the Twins or Orioles manager.) I can’t think of any other who’ve been outstanding other than Bill McKechnie, and that’s going back over 50 years to find one (plus he may have been a pitching coach AFTER he was a manager, my memory is a bit fuzzy on that). Roger Craig has a .500 overall record and a couple of division titles, but that’s about it.
The rule of thumb is that generally, good to great managers aren’t great ballplayers- they range from minor stars (Piniella, Lopez, Schoendienst or Stengel) to outright washouts/never was’es as players (LaRussa/Cox/Anderson/Weaver, who never played in the majors). Joe Torre’s probably the best combination of both player and manager, him or John McGraw.
I have a feeling Williams, McLaren and Maddon get interviews (based on nothing but hunches)…and Maddon gets the job based on proximity to Bavasi (he seems REALLY focused on using the people he knows as sounding boards, and I suspect they’ll say nice things about Maddon) and we’re subjected to all kind of productive out/keep-alive stat wackiness. Aaargh.
Dierker or Weaver. If they could get either of them I’d almost forgive them this most recent travesty of a season since it served as an excuse to can Melvin. Not that I expect it. It’s more likely to be someone with no redeeming qualities whatsoever – say Williams or Baylor.
How about Bill Lee or Jim Bouton for pitching coach or manager? They’ve proven that they can think, write (or dictate) and chew gum at the same time. If people like Don Zimmer and Rene Lachmann get chance after chance after chance to fail, why not really liven things up with some “outside the box” thinking?
I love Dierker, but I’d like to see Brundage get the job.
If nothing else, he’d be entertaining.
Am I nuts for wanting Frank Robinson? I was hoping the M’s would look at him two years ago, and I think I like him more this time around.
Yes, you’re nuts to want Robinson. He did as well as he possibly could in an impossible situation in Montreal, but nothing in his record shows he can build upon some initial success- ALL of his teams faded after a year or two. Unless you’re looking for a placeholder while you wait for the kids to get good and the draft picks to show up that you’ll have a plausible excuse to fire in a couple of years, Robinson’s not your guy.
Two words: Cito Gaston. The guy was a hell of a manager and got the ax when Gillick sold the farm out from under him to win a couple of series rings.
What about Cito Gaston? I understand that he was a frontrunner for the White Sox job last year that eventually went to Ozzie Guillen. I’m surprised that he hasn’t resurfaced yet. I mean, the guy won two World Series! The Jays immediately lapsed into mediocrity after trophy #2, of course… so which part of his managing career was the goods and which the aberration? And is he what the M’s need right now?
How about Edgar or Ichiro’s former manager in Japan?
They should manage by e-vote. Every decision could go up on Seattlemariners.com and fans could vote. Should we A. Swing away B. Bunt C. Hit and Run D. Steal a base
P.S. Am I the only one doing cartwheels that Myers is gone?
My recollection of Cito Gaston in Toronto was that he had 162 lineup cards pre-printed before the season began. Those were nice offenses with a lot of good two-way hitters, but to pursue lineup construction as if there was no starting pitcher on earth who could push Devon White out of the leadoff slot for a start seemed foolish to me.
Jim
P.S. Am I the only one doing cartwheels that Myers is gone?
Nope!
He means, we would be doing cartwheels, if it wasn’t for Myers, umm, help.
Cito Gaston was once asked why he didn’t make more (any) use of his bench players. His response:
“That’s why they’re called extra guys.”
I’m a big no on Cito. I like that Bill Lee suggestion, though. I saw the Spaceman at a charity softball game a few years ago – dead pull hitter, and he still has that enormous beard.
To go back to Ibanez, he actually hit better at home than away. More power anyways.
Eponymous Coward:
Re the idea of Molitor being on the list, we might be talking past each other on this one. If we are talking about *likely* candidates, then I think he would be near the top. Deserving candidates is another story. I could see the M’s giving him a shot, definitely.
I can see the Mariners brass letting Bavasi pick “his own guy”, which gives an edge to Collins, Maddon, and probably some others. However, if that doesn’t work, it paves the way for Bavasi and his personal managerial choice to share a moving van for the trip back to California exactly 52 weeks from now. IOW, if the M’s don’t come around and win 80+ games, there’s Bill and his sidekick to take the blame.
Don Baylor?
Bavasi I’m sure thinks Maddon is his guy in that “pat on the back” “my dad was an old school GM” way.
I like Dierker, his book, and newspaper columns but he’s at a disadvantage of never playing or managing in the AL.
It’s pretty obvious who they need. I just wonder if Bavasi and Lincoln have the stones to even ask Tampa for permission to talk with him.
As far as Earl Weaver, Dick Williams just put his pants back on and might be available. And of course Marty Martinez was just in town. Doesn’t he deserve another game as M’s manager?
I don’t envy DMZ. The list of the crazy candidates now that McKeon won last year gets even longer.
As for Cito Gaston, ask John Olerud about him. Cito said that Olerud wouldn’t handle the pressure of NY and probably would retire. And that’s before John’s FIRST stint in NY.
Hilarious Stuff on the Times site today:
The Mariners need to hire someone who is familiar with the organization and the players to make the transition smooth and easy. Well, Lou isn’t going to come back so we should promote Byran Price to be the M’s next skipper. The man knows what he’s doing, he’s helped turn this organizations pitching around, and he has the guts to step up and speak his mind. I’d bring in some old blood to fire up this team also, Edgar Martinez as the batting coach, and I’d also bring in Jay Buhner as the pitching coach.
— Stephen Rutledge, Bothell
Wally Backman should get some consideration.
Can you imagine Bone as the pitching coach?
on #61… his not managing in the AL doesn’t make Dierker less appetizing… you could make that argument for an AL moving to NL guy, but the NL management is far more complex with more game decisions, and it could actually help the team use the bench that we’ve paid for and are stuck with.. (i.e. Spezio, etc.) in situations where they could maximize their potential to help the club.
that being said… i have no idea, outside retiring or teaching (excessively loud and simplistic) guitar, what Spezio brings the team.
#66Tyler
The point on Dierker not knowing the AL is he doesn’t know the teams, ballparks, and personnel. Knowledge of personnel (his own and others) was a major BoMel weakpoint. And advance scouting of other teams is not an organizational strong point of the M’s so Dierker won’t have much help.
As far as managing in the NL, Piniella won the World Series his first year in the league thanks to Bonds/Bonilla and LaRussa’s A’s choking. So Dierker coming to the AL and succeeding is not an impossibility since he appears to have a lively (and healthy) mind from his writings. (btw, knowing how to double switch is highly overrated. I’ve seen NL guys like Bill Russell and Bobby Cox burn their DH in games here by “resting” their star catcher as DH on Sunday games and then later deciding to PH for their backup catcher).
Promote Dan Rohn, keep Bryan Price as pitching coach, and do everything to convince Buhner to come on as bench coach. This team desperately needs his everyday presence. He’s easily baseball’s next Don Zimmer.
I have no doubt Edgar will eventually be the hitting coach, but no way he’d be ready to come back right after retiring. It’ll be a few years.
#63.. I went to Junior High with that guy! Tres bizarre… but Buhner, as a pitching coach? Uh… no comment.
Tede…
i see your point.. i thought it was a blind “Kevin Mitchell-esque” anti-NL thing, glad to hear it isn’t. But doesn’t that then eliminate the in-house guys, any manager (Weaver, Valentine, Whitey Herzog?) not currently up to date in the AL, or essentially ANY NL manager/ex-manager?
And wouldn’t Price being retained assist in that aspect of things? And shouldn’t the M’s then make certain to hire some bench coaches that have that aspect of AL information down?
Just seems like a smart man with the ability (proven, for the most part) to lead winning teams and having the desire to do it would be a good organizational pickup, regardless of league experience.
As for the NL/AL managing… double-switch aspect of things… i’m not going to argue against you, but i do believe that there is more strategy involved… the agony of debating whether to let that pitcher hit in the 5th/6th/7th for example, when you need the scoring opportunity but he’s still able to go on…
a decision that an AL guy will only rarely have to deal with… and either way, IMO all managers will make “over-managing” mistakes at times, even the best of them.
I like Dan Rohn also if we want to promote within. But I would think if he becomes the head coach, Chaves would be the pitching coach instead of BP? I like Jeff’s idea of Jay being the bench coach. Bring some fun and fire to the team. Chaves works with all the kids in AAA and also have worked with Meche and Pinerio in the past at minors.
.If we are talking about *likely* candidates, then I think he (Molitor-ec) would be near the top.
Mariner management has issues, but what’s the logic behind firing Bob Melvin for a crappy season and hiring Bob Melvin’s hitting coach who was part of that crappy season as the new manager? How is this going to sell to season ticket holders? “Yes, we know, the team’s hitting sucked last year- but we believe in the Peter Principle!”
They simply aren’t that dumb. Part of this (arguably the BIGGEST part, since Bob really didn’t do anything he wasn’t told to do) is the sheer cynicism that if the management votes Bob off the island and bring in a new manager they can convince you and me to lay down money for season tickets. Promoting Molitor after the M’s hitters have a crap season would get ridiculed in the press and by the fans, and the team knows this and wants positive press out of this- thus it won’t happen. Molitor will get a job elsewhere as part of the Baseball Fraternity that cycles through undistinguished coaches, maybe to go on to manage in Milwaukee or somewhere where a crappy year in Seattle won’t be a blemish on his resume.
#71… Price has one year left on his contract anyway, so with Blackley, Nageotte, and Baek likely to start with Tacoma next year, and Felix possibly coming through there later, I’m fine with having a pitching coach of Chaves’ nature there as opposed to with the big club, at least until most of those guys are ready.
The point on Dierker not knowing the AL is he doesn’t know the teams, ballparks, and personnel.
Didn’t hurt Davey Johnson. Or Casey Stengel. Or Joe McCarthy. Or Tony LaRussa. Or Lou Piniella. It’s a dumb argument, to be honest- interleague play, television and spring training makes this less of an issue than in the past, and it didn’t stop good managers in one league from being good managers in the other league then. For Pete’s sake, EVERYONE in the M’s division trains in Arizona- that’s time right off the back. If Dierker or whoever gets hired can’t figure some things out by Opening Day, why the hell are we hiring him?
J, that is a very good point. I heard Meche twice on Rainier radio credited how Chaves helped him developing the current new windup(the lower waist line one). So perhaps for the young kids, Chaves could help them more. What confused me most about Price this year was if this guy can stand up to Lou and not get fired, why couldn’t he tell Melvin the pitchers were left on the mound way too long for way too many times.
#75: Perhaps with all the positive national press Price has received in the past, he’s waiting out his M’s contract so he can flip for big money somewhere else. In that situation, one might prefer to handle this year’s ugly situation by keeping quiet and letting Melvin take the blame for everything. It avoids a confrontation that could lead to “personality” rumors and also benefits from what will, justifiably or not, be the primary blame storyline about this season.
I have never understood local media’s fascination with Bill Krueger
as baseball analyst…. and this didn’t help– I give you Bill’s list of candidates the M’s should talk to, from FSN:
Jimy Williams. Bill said he had to be first on any list.
Jim Fregosi.
Terry Collins.
Joe Maddon. Bill admitted he didn’t really know anything
about him, but he knew Bavasi knew him.
Paul Molitor.
Kirk Gibson.
oh, and the KJR afternoon guys kinda like Art Howe… I think
it might be because he’s a ‘proven winner’
Joey Cora all the way!
An item on my managerial wish list that I keep returning to is a return to serious platoon usage on the M’s. It’s a good practice in winning baseball that Piniella wasn’t terribly fond of (because he hated it when he was a player), and I don’t recall Melvin really using it much. Piniella did use it a bit during the Greg Pirkl years, but I think that was out of desperation. It would be nice to have a manager who looks at a roster in February or March and says something like “I want my 25th guy to be a 3rd baseman/left fielder who can hit for power against lefties”, and then actually asks the organization to promote/acquire such a player. Throughout Piniella’s and Melvin’s tenure, it seemed like the team always had glaring weaknesses that could have been fixed pre-season by dumping someone like Bloomquist or Gipson and adding the right cheap free agent/waiver-wire/quad-A guy. It would be nice to see them hire someone who understands that.
Kreuger has a face and voice that works well in the media and is articulate (if totally absorbed in doctrinaire baseball thought just like 99% of other former players). You get the occasional insight from him on the craft of pitching but it’s surrounded with the usual clutch hitting/cluhouse chemistry/etc. garbage.
Coward….Davey Johnson played for Earl Weaver in the AL and later Atlanta in the NL. Perhaps you might have selected Sparky instead or even Joe Torre. Stengel was a horrible NL manager, btw and not hired on that basis more likely his Oakland PCL success since they were a Yankee affiliate at the time. He’s Dan Rohn with experience in the ‘49 hire.
OK, here’s one instance of not knowing the AL or it’s personnel. Melvin in 2003 recommended the signing of Greg Colbrunn a right handed 1B he “coached” in Arizona. Exactly what use in the AL is a right handed bench player who only plays one position (and is not the Sunday catcher)? Edgar getting hurt didn’t happen that year or this year. There are not enough LH pitchers for him to sub for Olerud at 1B in 2003 to have made this signing ever work. The type of player subbing for Olerud needs to play more than one defensive position or must completely replace Olerud (as Bucky did for this year).
Such a non-flexible position player who hits righthanded has a role in the NL but not in the AL.
I’d like Dierker if he has the fire in his belly to manage again. Perhaps if Dierker is hired, he might also emphasize pitching inside more often (which Melvin and Price didn’t believe in). The earlier post about the number of innings thrown in Houston is sobering though. He’s still worth a look. He definitely did a better job in Houston than Bavasi’s Anaheim buddy Terry Collins.
What confused me most about Price this year was if this guy can stand up to Lou and not get fired, why couldn’t he tell Melvin the pitchers were left on the mound way too long for way too many times.
Because he saw what happened to Lou?
What about Tony LaRussa?
His contract is up with the Cardinals at the end of the season. Reports are that he isn’t likely to come back to St. Louis. I believe he still has a home in Walnut Creek, just minutes from Oakland. So he is a West Coast guy.
If the M’s are going to go the “proven track record” route, there isn’t anybody out there that’s available (or will be available) than Tony LaRussa.
Thoughts on LaRussa, Derek or David?
in the same line, what happened to Jeff Nelson has got to give everyone who doesn’t need a job pause about taking this one.
Concerning, Rob Salkowitz’s puzzlement (Comment # 39): what happened to BRIAN PRICE?
He was highly regarded, was rumored to be the Mariner manager-in-waiting.
Among those who thought he’d eventually be manager:
Elia pulls out as M’s whittle finalists to 4
By Bob Finnigan
Seattle Times staff reporter
[snip]
Sources say that Elia was in line for the Seattle job, a scenario in
which he would have been a mentor for Bryan Price for one or two years
until Price, who will remain with the club as pitching coach, was
ready to manage.
[from a Mariner Newsgroup post by MS Burton]
What’s the deal?
John
It’s an interesting quandary. Some GM’s like biddable field managers (JP Ricciardi appears to want this) – guys who will manage as they are told to manage. Some managers – like Carlos Tosca – don’t follow orders well.
But with a directionless GM like Bavasi, that’s not the sort of manager the M’s need. The M’s need a manager who will make the most of whatever dog’s breakfast Bavasi hands him.
Hneh. IMHO, of all the names we’ve seen/heard/suggested, Bavasi’s short list should be as follows (in no meaningful order): Rohn, Brundage, Maddon, Chambliss, Dierker.
On another note, proving once again the old adage about blind squirrels and nuts, Steve Kelley actually got something right today: “Pressure on Bavasi with Melvin gone.” He didn’t take that as far as I would–to wit, hire Grady Fuson to a) make Bavasi a better GM and b) replace him if he doesn’t get the job done this year–but he did make the following worthwhile point:
“In 2001 the Mariners got lucky with Bret Boone, with Paul Abbott, with Mark McLemore, with so many players having career years. That 116-win season was a freak occurrence.
“Two years later, Melvin inherited the hangover from that season. He never had a chance.”
“. . . the game comes down to talent. And Melvin didn’t have enough.”
Well, the other shoe dropped:
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/sports/2002055238_mari06.html
[EDITED: Please do not reproduce entire articles, it's a violation of copyright and could get us in trouble -- MGMT ]
I especially like the part where Bavasi fired Melvin because Aurilia, Garcia and Ole had better performance after they left. Worst. Excuse. EVAR.
My money is on Maddon getting the job.
But we all noticed it. The players we sent away did well (sometimes only briefly – like Aurilia). The biggest example is probably Carlos Guillen, who appears on my IBA MVP ballot despite missing the last two weeks of the season.
ANother name to throw into the mix of a young but experienced coach is Ron Wotus, bench coach of the SF Giants. He has 6 years minor league management experience and has been with the Major league team for six years.
A brief part of his bio, per Giants website….
Has spent 14 years in Giants organization, including last 6 on Major League staff…was manager in farm system for 7 years (1991-97)…was twice named Manager of Year, while posting overall 555-411 record (.575) in minors…his teams finished above .500 mark and made playoffs in 6 of 7 years as skipper…1999-2003…served as Giants bench coach and assisted with infield defense…SF has established new franchise records for fielding pct. and fewest errors in season twice over past 4 years (2000 and 2003)…club has turned 827 double plays during his tenure tutoring infield, 3rd-most among NL clubs over 5-year span
In response to an earlier post, Roger Craig was a pitching coach and one of the great managers of our era. Pitching coach, smitching coach I don’t care what position a manager has previously coached, what position he played (ooh he was a catcher … active minds follow the game and think along with moves regardless of position), or whether he made it to the bigs in his playing career. If a guy has the right personality, tactical skills, or gut instincts to win with the talent assembled to play for him … that is who I want. By right personality I mean leadership skills that create a dynamic atmosphere where winning is expected and faulty play not tolerated because of pride and respect for the sacredness of the game which includes having fun. Such a man should display fieriness when a player, ump, or opponent fails to treat the game right (as much as I thought Buck Showalter had his butt puckered too tight when he complained about Junior wearing his hat backwards I respected him for caring so much). Such a man should show confidence in his players when they are in slumps and breed an environment where slumps are not the end of the world but just a necessary blip on the way to championships. One important thing to note is that great managers have stables of coaches who are good at covering the other details that a manager cannot attend to himself. Coaches help coerce the conditions of winning by allowing the best in personalities to flourish. Just like the Huskies need to need do when, and if, they need to replace Gilby the budget for the M’s coaching staff should be appropriately large. Guys I’d bring in for managerial interviews: Tom Kelly (funny), Earl Weaver (funnier), Tony Larussa (if he’s available), Bobby Valentine (the George Karl of baseball, which IMO is a good thing with the right players), Carlos Tosca (one of my faves, fiery and learned a lot in his last job), Cito Gaston (he must be doing something wrong in those interviews), Lloyd McClendon (if the Pirates let us), Chris Chambliss, Grady Little, Kirk Gibson, Orel Hershiser, Buddy Bell, Bob Boone, Joe Maddon, Dan Rohn, Bud Black, Jim Riggleman, Willie Randolph, Mike Hargrove, John McLaren, Brad Mills, and other up-n-comers. Ideally, I’d like to see Valentine with Tosca as his bench coach, Rohn as the 3B coach, BP as pitching coach, and Bobby having a big hand in filling the rest of the staff. If Mel Stottlemyre is tired of the Big Apple and wants to come home he would be great to have as co-pitching coach. I’m beginning to believe Bavasi has more guts than he shows in his diplomacy with the press, I hope I’m right.
“By right personality I mean leadership skills that create a dynamic atmosphere where winning is expected and faulty play not tolerated because of pride and respect for the sacredness of the game which includes having fun. Ideally, I’d like to see Valentine with Tosca as his bench coach”–Comment by JJM — 10/6/2004 @ 11:03 am
haven’t paid too much attention to Valentine, but I thought the problem with in NY was his hands-off technique … poking around I saw this from when he was fired: “Valentine never once marched into his clubhouse to confront his players, instead relying on their professionalism and self-pride to end the streak. That strategy failed, and the perception grew that Valentine not only didn’t care, but actually was trying to get fired. As Al Leiter put it, “Bobby’s never been the kind of manager who got close to his players. So when we were losing, it looked like his mind was somewhere else. That’s not the truth, but that’s how it might’ve seemed.”"-The Record (Bergen County, NJ)
FWIW, re Tom Kelly:
St. Paul Pioneer Press | 10/07/2004
o Tom Kelly, who managed the Twins to World Series championships in 1987 and 1991 and is a special assistant to general manager Terry
Ryan, is being rumored among candidates for the New York Mets’ managing vacancy.
“I think there are a number of teams looking for a manager, and it’s
always a good boost for the ego when you’re mentioned,” Kelly, 54,
said between golf shots at Hillcrest Country Club on Wednesday.
However, when Ryan asked Kelly the other day how he should respond to
clubs inquiring about his managing availability, Kelly said to tell
them thanks, but he graciously declines.
One guy I hope gets some consideration by the M’s [but probably won't] is Larry Dierker.
During his time with Houston, he consitently managed teams that overachieved, something that this team has failed to do since 2001.
I have no idea if Dierker would even be interested in the job, but he’s a guy with some experience that I don’t think you can put in the category of “retread”.
Oh, and I had only meant to cut a couple sentences for quoting ala fair use- and cut and pasted a whole swath instead. Ooops. Sorry.
Dave Andriessen’s article today lists these 3 guys:
- Lee Elia
- John McLaren
- Jim Riggleman
Any thoughts on any of these guys? None overwhelms me at first consideration.
“Dave Andriessen’s article today lists these 3 guys:- Lee Elia – John McLaren- Jim Riggleman”–Comment by Pat — 10/12/2004 @ 7:51 am
all three of whom said they had not been contacted by the Mariners…
Continuing the theme, today Larry Larue (once you weed through his article) says that Bavasi has contacted as many as four men, but is keeping the list private — but that the M’s have asked to interview Maddon.
The rest of his piece is all speculative. Larue says that they have ‘considered’ Grady Little, Don Baylor, Art Howe and Lee Elia, that Bowa would like to interview (and Bavasi knows him), that the ‘usual suspects’ are Jimy Williams, Jim Fregosi and Terry Collins, and ‘longshots the Mariners have at least considered’ are Whitey Herzog, Tom Kelly & Bobby Valentine.
Larry doesn’t confide how he knows who they have ‘considered’ or not, of course….
It’s worth noting that managerial hirings tend to have a ton of wild speculation and denial around them. Some candidates won’t talk about being considered/interviewed (if they don’t get it, they don’t want to seem like losers), others want to make any feeler into a full-fledged interview (want to seem in demand), and there’s a ton of people with the team and in the press pushing their own candidates in different ways.
Which is to say… when the team comes out and says “We interviewed guy X” and guy X says “Yup” then you’re on pretty solid ground. Everything else is uncertain to one degree or another.
What would you guys think about Kirk Gibson as a possibility for manager? I don’t know anything about how he would manage, but if he could get guys to give the heart and effort he gave, that would be good. The other thing I would like to see is Bone as a member of the coaching staff, if someone with a personality like Gibson is not hired. He obviously isn’t ready to manage, but his presence would be a positive influence on these young kids.
Offhand, even if he were willing, I’d say no chance on Herzog. Herzog is a problem solver and an innovator. At his age he doesn’t need the headache of wading through layers of bureaucracy, which the Mariners possess in great abundance. This is a team that needs to involve the whole organization before issuing an intentional walk.
Herzog would require absolute control over who he plays and who he kicks off the team and that just isn’t going to happen.
I think if Kelly were willing, that could be a good fit. He seems to be able to work within a fairly rigid framework (e.g. the Twins monetary constraints) without becoming stifled.
I’m still up for Rohn. Also the Tacoma announcer.
Pocket Lint has Collins, Maddon and Little, with Eila, Baylor (shudder) and Manuel.
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/sports/2002062536_mari14.html
Bavasi’s also hired Dan Evans (big shock). I’m not sure how much I like this- unlike some people I think past performance does indicate future results.
Collins is being mentioned as one of the favorites? Blech. Didn’t the players in Anaheim run him out of town? I don’t think a manager needs to kiss players’ butts, but I don’t want a guy whose entire team rebelled.
I’d like to know more about Mike Hargrove. My image of him from his stints in Cleveland and Baltimore is that he did a good job.
I’d like to know what anyone else thoibnks or knows about him.
Why don’t we ask for permission to talk with Dusty Baker? From what I remember SEATTLE was Dusty’s first choice after he Left SF.
Do the M’s have time to look at one more candidate? I have a feeling Terry Francona could be on the market veeeeery shortly.
My money’s on Tony LaRussa getting the job. Bavasi wants an “impact” hire, and there’s no bigger name available~
I’m wondering if Bavasi should sign free agents PRIOR to hiring a new manager because if a free agent doesn’t like a manager then he will not sign with the M’s. I grant that this is not likely. However, why take a chance on Beltran not getting along with Jimy Williams or not liking the M’s direction if they hire a manager with no previous experience.
I think the chances of potential free agents not liking a particular managerial hire are pretty slim. They will sign with the team that 1) offers them the most money, and 2) gives them the best chance to win (in that order).
http://www.nytimes.com/auth/login?URI=http://www.nytimes.com/2004/10/17/sports/baseball/17score.html
has a Managerial Calculator.
I have not tried it yet.
Carlos Tosca deserves an interview if the Mets haven’t already secretly hired him.
After Tosca was fired:
http://slam.canoe.ca/Slam/Baseball/MLB/Toronto/2004/08/09/574999.html
Tosca Being Honest:
http://slam.canoe.ca/Slam/Baseball/MLB/Toronto/2004/07/15/544039.html
Piniella Judging Tosca’s Arguing Skills (scroll down to the first pragraph under quick hits):
http://www.torontosun.com/Slam030802/col_elliott-sun.html
Tosca article before he was hired as manager in Toronto:
http://www.torontosun.com/Slam020602/col_elliott-sun.html