Random Thoughts
Just because, a list of things that have strolled through my mind the past few days, as I’ve actually been able to watch a little bit of playoff baseball.
1. I could have sworn that Tim McCarver told me that pitching and defense won championships. Why are the four remaining teams all offensive machines who hit the crap out of the baseball?
2. How do the Yankees spend $180 million to build a roster and fail to come up with a decent LOOGY, especially when your division rival boasts a line-up of lefties with platoon issues?
3. Carlos Beltran is pretty good.
4. Albert Pujols is better.
5. Nearly every team left in the postseason has been burned by bringing in inferior middle relievers to face the heart of the order in the 6th and 7th inning, while their closer loses a chance to close anything out and ends up sitting on his hands. Have we ever seen a more glaring series of examples that the current way to build a bullpen is not ideal? The organization who has determination to bring back a true “relief ace” is going to reap some pretty big rewards.
6. Alex Rodriguez. Jason Varitek. David Ortiz. Derek Lowe. John Olerud. Mike Myers. The ALCS is a collection of reminders of Mariner blunders over the past 10 years. Good times…
7. I guarantee that we hear a Clint Nageotte-Brad Lidge comparison at least once during the offseason, especially if they officially decide to move him to the bullpen permanently.
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71 Responses to “Random Thoughts”
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With every hit Carlos Beltran gets in the postseason it looks less and less likely that the Mariners will be able to sign him. Assuming they ever had any chance to get him. Right now he’s playing his way straight out of the M’s outfield.
I would hardly call the Mike Myers trade a “blunder”.
Yeah, but the FA signing…
I don’t see that A-Rod and Olerud were blunders. Would you have spend $252M over 10 years for ARod? Likewise Olerud didn’t hit much last year and was worse this year both before and after his release.
I always chuckle when people complain about trading away Varitek and Lowe (and Jose Cruz, Jr). When the Mariners sat on their hands in 2002 and 2003, everyone criticized them for not trading prospects to get better “this” year. When they make a deal, everyone criticizes them years later for having traded away a major league talent.
I haven’t been around the blog enough to know what a LOOGY is (left-handed…), but it never ceases to amaze me that with their payroll that the Yankees have so many holes and that anyone is close to them. Shouldn’t a team with $180M payroll win 110+ games and sleepwalk to the World Series?
LOOGY = Lefty One Out GuY
You’re also leaving Ruben Sierra off the list of ex-Mariners in the ALCS (not to mention that Pat Borders and Jose Offerman helped the Yankees get there in the first place).
Don’t forget John Mabry. He had an RBI yesterday too (okay, that wasn’t meant to be serious).
I’m not sure Ortiz is a blunder either. I doubt even USSM predicted his current performance….
Dumping Olerud was not a blunder. He can’t even get out of the way of his own bat. It’s nearing the end for John. Thanks for the class act and the great memories.
Pat Borders lost a game for the Twins in the playoffs. Releasing him was not a blunder.
Jose Offerman!!?!?!? Are you saying that getting rid of him was a blunder.
Random Thoughts:
1. Beltran – if I were negotiating with him I would say: “We want want you for 6 years, Carlos. You fill in the number you want….Do I read this correctly? You want $120 Million?…..Ok. It’s a deal. Welcome to Seattle.”
2. Yankees might well run away with the WS. Boston is not as good. Only the Cardinals and their Fabulous Five could compete with the Yankees.
3. Schilling’s ego blew it for the Red Sox. He wanted to compete but should have declined for the good of the team. Those high-80s fastball looked like beach balls to the Yankee hitters.
Let me join the “Olerud was a mistake?!?!?” bandwagon.
Are you channeling asbs-m Mike or something?
Mabry may not be a front office blunder, but he is another example of how bad BoMel was at maximizing players’capabilities. Mabry looked bad last year as one of BoMel’s crew. This year his numbers (in 240 ABs) were better than Ibanez’s.
Regarding Varitek-and-Lowe-for-Slocumb: this was a terrible trade at the time, since it didn’t even make the team better that season. Woodward didn’t even receive a major-league talent in trade, so the moved failed even when trying to maximize the “Now” side of the ledger. I don’t recall anyone thinking the M’s had really patched up their bullpen with ol’ Heathcliff. I sure didn’t.
Cruz-for-Spoljaric-and-Timlin wasn’t much better, but even as illustration that prospects don’t always fulfill fans greatest hopes it wasn’t a good deal for the M’s. At the time, Cruz was reported as “untouchable” throughout all of the trade speculation, and then Woodward moved him for a couple of middle-relief arms. At best, it had the potential to improve “Now”.
Neither is comparable to Bagwell for Anderson, which was well-received in Bean Town, and did actually help the BoSox that year. Long-term, things balanced out a little differently, but at least “Now” looked better after the trade.
John Olerud was released by the Mariners. Now he is playing in the ALCS for the Yankees. Why did we release him again? I think that was the mistake.
Apparently I need to clarify my ramblings a bit better from now on. The blunder comment wasn’t a shot at the front office, and obviously getting rid of Olerud and Myers were totally defensible moves. I was simply stating that the players are, in different ways, reminders of the M’s failures the past decade; trading away young prospects for replacement level players, letting a hall of famer walk away as he enters his prime, and watching the collapse of the old guard. All of these former M’s remind me of failures; I’m not saying there departures were the failures.
I thought you might have been thinking along those lines, Dave. Thanks for clarifying.
BB-ref’s list of comparables for Beltran through Age 27: Dawson, Bonds (Bobby), Winfield, Jack Clark, Gus Bell, Shawn Green, Harold Baines, Reggie Smith, Gary Sheffield, and Johnny Callison.
WOW!
He is worth $20M a year. The M’s should beat whatever the Yankees offer. If they lose out, they could win the PR game by telling the fans they offered more than the Yankees.
The assumption that Beltran is going to be the Yankees primary target, to me, has some flaws. Their rotation is a mess, with Jon Lieber and Orlando Hernandez both being free agents, leaving only Mussina, Brown, and Vazquez coming back next year. Meanwhile, they have $31 million tied up in Matsui, Williams, and Sheffield for next season. If Giambi comes back, he’s likely to play DH more often than not, meaning that Beltran would send Bernie Williams to the bench. While he’s certainly a shell of himself, he still hit .262/.360/.435 this year and was worth about 20 runs above replacement level. CF wasn’t a gaping hole for the Yankees this year.
I know the knee jerk reaction is to believe that the Yankees will get the prime free agent every offseason, but I’m not sure that’s the case. They didn’t get Vlad or Tejada last year, “settling” for Sheffield. I’m not sure they go balls to the wall for Beltran this year, either.
Valid point, Dave. And with Boras doing the negotiating, he probably will go to the highest bidder, even if that is a “rebuilding” team like Seattle. (BTW, were the Yankees in the bidding when Arod was a free agent after 2000?)
If I were Cashman I would put Bernie at 1b. Resign Olerud to be the back up for one year.
My gut says the Yankees will keep reaching into their bottomless pockets for the best free agents; a $250M payroll in 2010 will not surprise me.
I’m not sure that they wanted Vlad or Tejada though.
Adam S: “I don’t see that A-Rod and Olerud were blunders. Would you have spend $252M over 10 years for ARod?”
Dave: “…letting a hall of famer walk away as he enters his prime…”
Of course Adam S is right, watching A-Rod is not watching an old Mariner blunder, but watching an old Mariner extremely smart move. What’s not to like about a division rival over-paying a player (throwing away money they could have used to hire Mariner-smiters) by 60-80 million dollars? (Not just my opinion, Texas’s too, codified so eloquently in the financial details of the trade with the Yankees). By this reckoning, letting Sele go was a blunder too.
Watching the Red Sox play is kind of painful, but there’s also a big “whew!” there, as in all 3 of Lowe, Varitek and Ortiz have highlighted the Mariner blunders in either a very slow or inconsistent fashion – being traded from the Mariners never seems to be a recipe for instant and prolonged stardom, just dumb luck for them so far….
They didn’t need Tejada, not with Mr. Intangible, Mr. October, Mr. Baseball at shortstop. I mean where would they have moved Jeter if they signed Tejada?
I expect they Yankees will move some over-valued prospects from their farm system to repair their pitching staff. And Sheffield has mentioned a time or two about this possibly being his last year due to the assortment of injuries he’s been suffering. So why not sign Beltran and moving Bernie over?
Personally I’d love for the M’s to sign Beltran, but I just don’t see it happening.
At the risk of starting a debate I don’t have time to engage in, let me say this:
Alex Rodriguez is underpaid. Blaming the Rangers failures on his contract is simply poor analysis that is factually wrong.
The assumption that Beltran is going to be the Yankees primary target, to me, has some flaws.
Perhaps, but the Yankees — and maybe a couple other teams — have the luxury of making more than one player, and sometimes several, their “primary target.” The Mariners or Astros might adopt a Beltran-or-bust offseason, but if the Yanks sign him, the very next day Cashman will be on the phone looking for his next high-profile pickup.
I don’t know that he’ll be wearing pinstripes next year, but one thing is a safe bet: if he isn’t, George will have driven the price up so far that whichever team does sign him might be crippled by that salary for years to come. In the end, it might be better if the Mariners don’t get him.
I’ll admit I was impressed by Francona bringing in Foulke with one out in the 7th. I was then further impressed by Foulke himself when he pitched 2.7 scoreless innings (though it took him 50 pitches to do it).
I would like to know how much money you would give Beltran if you were GM. $20M for 6 years if I were running the show.
But the M’s won’t get him.
I still hold to this comment I posted last week:
My opinion is that Seattle will get scraps, at best, from the dinner plate of the Bos-NY free agent feast. So forget about Beltran, Beltre or Clement.
Because the war between Boston and New York is heating up George may do something wild. Would he sign Beltre, move Arod to SS (or 2b), and Jeter to 2b? More likely if the Yankees lose to Boston, or even lose their 4th straight WS. Would he sign Clement and trade for Randy Johnson? I say nothing is too wild for George’s ego.
As the war between the descendants of Babe Ruth heats up, the losers will be the rest of the AL East, teams with payroll in the 2nd tier like Seattle, Chi(A), and Atlanta, then the others. Chi(N) and LAD and perhaps Anaheim will get the players they want.
I predict the M’s will get Sexson and Radke
I’m surprised that there isn’t a “relief ace” concept yet. It makes perfect sense.
Speaking of Mariners blunders…Willie Bloomquist was drafted ahead of Albert Pujols. Now, don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying that is necessarily a blunder – it partly just shows how much the draft is a crapshoot. However, the M’s drafts as a whole have been blunders the past few years and this is just another way of making you think, “Damn! What if…”
1. I would also comment that Francona (my favorite the last time there was managerial speculation in Seattle) brought Foulke in at times other than the 9th with a lead — I think he is the exception to Dave’s observation.
2. I agree with Dave about A-Rod . . . well, only maybe about be “underpaid” (perhaps “earning his salary”), but definitely about allowing a Hall of Famer to leave for nothing as he entered his prime. The mistake was not in choosing not to compete with Hicks’ offer, but doing nothing proactively in the two years before that to prevent it from coming to that. If the M’s had offered A-Rod $18M a year for an 8 year extension after the 1998 season, do you not think he would have taken that, regardless of Boras’ desire to see him test the market?
3. The Varitek and Lowe for Slocumb blunder is not hypocritical of those who criticize the M’s for reluctance to trade prospects over the last couple of years. Slocumb was not a top closer at the time. He had struggled in Boston, and was good mostly by reputation only by that time. He did help the M’s that year, but the cost in Lowe and Varitek was more than the M’s should have had to pay. Worse, to me, it was a move that was duplicative of the Timlin-and-Spoljaric for Cruz trade (another example of not getting enough in return for a good prospect/young player, though it was better than the Boston deal). It smacked to me of a GM who wasn’t sure he got enough with one trade to fill his holes, so he desperately threw more fuel on the fire. It was a blunder. I was grateful that Woody tried (unlike Gillick) but his execution was horrible.
4. While I think Carlos Beltran is clearly target 1a, 1b, and 1c, I don’t think I would pay him $20M a year if JD Drew can be had for $8-$10M a year . . .. But I’ll admit, even as I wrote that, it is close.
A lot of guys were drafted ahead of Pujols:-), he was what a 6th round pick?
Conor,
Do you know the signing bonuses paid for each player? Would that be a reason drafting Willie was not a blunder? I’m curious about your opinion on this.
OFF TOPIC
What are the A’s going to do for a Right Fielder? I don’t imagine they will be a player in the FA market? And their Nick Swisher will play CF, no?
What is the best Oakland A’s blog to read for accurate information and good debate?
So who are the “relief aces” currently? I suspect there are specific roles that bullpen guys thrive at, and when thrust into others, they tank. So a “relief ace” would have to thrive in any role, be it LOOGY, Closer, setup, long relief, etc. right??? Sort of like the Mark Maclemore or Stan Javier or Luis Sojo of relief pitching. I can’t think of anyone like that off the top of my head. Shiggy in ‘03 was like that, but we all know that it was just a fluke season.
On a different note, as awesome as he has been in the postseason, I’m not convinced Beltran is a Top-10 player. He has the potential to be one, but I don’t think he currently is. Top 10% — absolutely — but he’s currently not one of the top Ten hitters in my opinion. With that in mind, I do think he should be the M’s #1 target this offseason. It may take Top 10 dollars to get him, but he’s the least risky player to spend that dough in the free agent market right now. He’s one of the only players about to become a free agent who fits my main criterion: a guy that an offense can be built around. No, in my book, he shouldn’t earn as much as Vladie, but if that’s what it takes to get him, then show him the money.
FWIW, here’s my list of the top ten hitters (in no particular order)
A-Rod
Bonds
Pujols
Manny Ramirez
Vladie
Helton
Sheffield
Jim Edmonds
Jim Thome
Scott Rolen
Griffey (when healthy, of course)
Ichiro (best leadoff hitter in the game right now, though he’s not a ’slugger’ like most of the other guys in my list)
OK so that’s twelve — 11 if you throw out Griffey because he doesn’t play a lot any more, and 10 if you throw out Ichiro as a different “type” of hitter than the rest of these. I’d take any one of these players 10 days a week over Beltran, though I still REALLY badly want Beltran. He certainly could bump out a few guys on my list — has the potential — but still isn’t yet a top-ten “elite elite” player. For that reason, a 6-year, $120 million contract would be too much in my book. I might be able to stomach a 6-year $85-90 million contract, though…
Imagine how much it would shut us all up if Howard and Co. were able to nab Beltran. As much as I don’t think it will happen, it would certainly shut me up a lot…
Absolutely, Beltran is maximizing his value. But $20M/year? C’mon, all — we need at least two bats AND a top line starter for next year (maybe bullpen help, too). At the risk of opening up the “Gillick spread the wealth philosophy” I would rather have 2 $10M bats (will be collectively better than Beltran) than Carlos for $20M. You could probably better the offensive production with 2 $7M bats and get more muscle in the ‘pen.
The Oakland outfield is supposed to have Eric Brynes in left, Mark Kotsay in CF and Nick Swisher in RF. Of course, anything can happen this offseason, but that is what the 2005 outfield would look.
BTW — I recall reading (was it in Art Thiel’s book?) that the M’s offered A-Rod an unheard of $150 million (forget the # of years) before Hicks blew everyone out of the water.
If the M’s had offered A-Rod $18M a year for an 8 year extension after the 1998 season, do you not think he would have taken that, regardless of Boras’ desire to see him test the market?
The M’s did make offers to both Junior and A-Rod – twice I think. One of the mistakes was to allow both of their contracts to expire in the same year. You can get lot more details from ‘Out of the Left Field’ by Art Thiel which you might’ve already read.
I dont know why Dave says A-Rod is underpaid – is he worth more than the entire roster of the Tampa Bay Devil Rays put together? I doubt it.
#9 “Mabry looked bad last year as one of BoMel’s crew. This year his numbers (in 240 ABs) were better than Ibanez’s.”–Comment by Todd — 10/18/2004 @ 9:14 am
For some unknown reason, Mabry’s numbers have always been better in St. Louis than at any of his other stops in the NL or AL…
#23 “Speaking of Mariners blunders…Willie Bloomquist was drafted ahead of Albert Pujols. Now, don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying that is necessarily a blunder – it partly just shows how much the draft is a crapshoot.”–Comment by Conor Glassey — 10/18/2004 @ 10:44 am
think how Kansas City must feel, as they skipped the hometown boy in favor of Kyle Snyder, Robert MacDougal, Wes Obermueller, Ken Harvey, Mark Ellis, Tony Cogan, and then just about 10 picks before Albert went, they chose that 3B phenom Gregg Raymundo from Pepperdine instead…
This begs an interesting question that would probably be hard to research: Who is the lowest draft pick ever to make the Hall of Fame?
Athletics Nation (www.athleticsnation.com) is the best Oakland blog, IMO.
I hate grammar/usage postings, but the misuse of “begs the question” by writers for entertainment and half-ass news magazines (and others) is a sore spot. “Begs the question” is a phrase used to describe a logical fallacy, in which the truth of the conclusion is assumed in the premises. It is improper to say that the impetus for asking a certain question “begs” it. Sorry, just had to let you know for future use.
Dave,
I agree with your comments about the Yankees offseason priorities. Really, the media seems to link every good free agent with the usual suspects (the Red Sox, Mets, Yankees, Dodgers, Cubs and Angels) without really considering these clubs situations regarding needs, payroll, and internal options. But it just seems that the media loses sight of reality the most when discussing the Yankees. I read an article a while back talking about how the Yankees were going to sign Adrian Beltre. How the hell does work. I also have heard a lot of talk about how the Cubs will pursue Beltran after they let Nomar and Alou go, and trade away Sosa. Last I checked, Sosa’s contract is the most hideous contract in baseball (minimum 43 million for two years if he is traded). Oh well.
Regarding the Yankees, I think that they have a lot more pressing issues than Beltran. They need someone to play 1B. If Bernie is the DH, like everyone is saying, then Giambi will be paid 12 million to sit on the bench. If Giambi is the DH, then Williams is $12 million dollars worth of bench help. Whether Giambi ever plays defense again will really have a huge impact on what the Yankees do, but it does not look good for him now. Both Giambi and Williams are totally untradable. In the rotation, they have Brown (15 million) Mussina (17 million), Vazquez (10.5 million), and Lieber (5 million team option) signed for 2005. It looks like Brown is in the doghouse, but it will be difficult for the Yankees to do anything with him. I think that they are pretty much stuck with him unless they eat a huge chunk of his 2005 and 2006 contracts. Vazquez also might have pitched his last game in pinstripes, espeically given his struggles in the postseason. He will be easier to move, although his 2006 and 2007 salaries are 11.5 and 12.5 million. So that will limit what they could get for him. I imagine that they will exercise the option on Lieber, because they need someone. Mussina is solid. El Duque is a free agent, and will command a big raise. Basically, the Yankees are going to have to sign at least one pitcher, and perhaps as many as four if they decline Lieber’s option. If the Yankees go after Pedro Martinez (which I think is a good bet) they will be adding $15 million to their payroll. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Yanks try to acquire Randy Johnson again either. If this fails, I think that Pavano and Milton are the other guys that are rumored to by in their crosshairs.
Basically, the Yankees are going to be adding around $30 million (and perhaps much more) to their starting rotation. They also have to bring in people at 1B and 2B. It is also a safe bet that they will try to sign another pitcher for the bullpen, as Quantrill, Gordon, and Rivera pitched a whole lot this year. That is a lot of needs. The Yankees payroll right now is 181 million. I really find it hard to believe that they would go up as far as $230 million. That is what it would take for them to sign Beltran plus fix their starting rotation. They might be able to keep their payroll down a little bit if they could move some of their contracts. But Vazquez is really the only guy that they might want to move that has any trade value whatsoever. I could see them moving him in a trade similar to the Brown for Weaver trade last offseason, where they trade a pitcher who strugged in the offseason for an older pitcher with a giant contract (by the way, I would love to see a Vazquez for Boone trade). I don’t see how the Yankees can sign Beltran and still fix the real holes in their lineup. It just doesn’t make sense unless they plan to go way above 200 million.
Regarding some of the other big-market teams, I don’t think that a lot of them will be as active as the media thinks. Boston is supposedly cutting payroll back to around $100 million. Since they have so many key players going to free agency (Pedro, Lowe, Varitek, Cabrera, and about 1/2 their bullpen) they will be hard pressed to resign or fill these holes and still make a big splash in free agency while cutting back their payroll. The Angels are in the same boat. They have about $30 million coming off the books, but they also want to cut their payroll back to $90 million, which means that they have a limited amount of cash. I could see them signing Nomar and making a few trades, but that is about it. They have a lot of prospects to fill their holes. The Dodger are way way in the red, and I don’t see them adding a lot of payroll. They might be able to resign Beltre, but they also have Odalis Perez, Steve Finley, Hideo Nomo, and Jose Lima to resign. They can’t just let all of those pitchers walk without bringing someone else in. I could see them making a token effort to resign Beltre, then just trying to resign some of thier lesser free agents while further reducing their payroll. The Astros are another team with some cash to spend, but they have to deal with Roger Clemens and Jeff Kent also. Plus, Lance Berkman is due a huge raise, and they would be dumb not to try and resign him to a long term contract. So they will have some tough choices to make. However, I could see them making a strong bid to keep Beltran.
All in all, a lot of the most active teams are not going to have as much cash to fling around as they have in the last few years. There might be a few teams that come out of nowhere and surprise everyone with a spending spree (like Detroit, Baltimore, and Anaheim last year), but the M’s are looking good. No teams have the same combination of payroll flexibility and lack of important free agents to resign as the M’s. However, the M’s do have more holes to fill than most clubs.
BBB,
This is a good point about Beltran versus spreading the $$$. I hope that Beltran does not go for $20 million, because no player is worth that much. I would also rather see the M’s sign Adrian Beltre and JD Drew for a combined 22-23 million then go after Beltran and Koskie. But if Beltran is available for 15-17 million/season on a longer contract (7-8 years) it might be worth it. Then, we would be deciding between Beltre and Drew or Beltran and Glaus, which is a lot harder decision. I almost tend to favor the latter. Glaus looked good in the playoffs and Beltran is insanely good and getting better. Beltre and Drew are both excellent players, but they both have major questions about durability and consistency. I think that Beltran and Glaus would be safer bets, actually. But that is debatable.
What do you guys think? What would you rather see: Beltre and Drew or Beltran and Glaus?
There are many undrafted picks in the Hall of Fame. Since the modern amateur draft was conceived, I’m not sure who currently holds that title, but the questin’s almost irrelevant, as it will be set and held, probably forever, by Mike Piazza. In a couple of years, he’ll be inducted, and was drafted in the 62nd round of the 1988 draft at #1,390.
The fact of the matter is, you MUST overpay to get the premier free agents of every offseason. If the M’s are not willing to overpay and compete with other big-revenue teams, they have no chance to get Beltran or Beltre. What frustrates me is that they make more than enough money to absorb bad contracts, take risks and make mistakes, but they’ve trained the fans to think that every John Olerud/Jeff Cirillo situation is a catastrophic hit to their budget, as if they are a small-market team like Oakland or Minnesota. So what if the M’s have to eat the Cirillo contract or Speizio’s contract? They, like Boston and New York, have a competitive advantage in the form of their revenue base, yet the M’s refuse to use it.
In the past few years, the Mariner front office has viewed the signing of a top free agent like a space shuttle launch. EVERY conceivable factor must be in their favor, otherwise they won’t do it. Miggy? Too many years. Vlad? Bad back. Pudge? Only plays well in contract years (a Bavasi lie, by the way). Let’s hope they change their attitude this winter.
Sriram (#31) – Your’re right that the M’s made A-Rod an offer, but they waited until after the 1999 season *at least* (they also made an offer after the 2000 season, which may have been their first offer to him – I don’t remember), but IIRC it was only for five years. If you were going to move A-Rod from Boras’ “test the market” position, you’d have to offer more than five years. The ten he eventually got says something about what he was likely looking for. Let me clarify what I said earlier — I think the blunder was in not approaching A-Rod about an extension even earlier than they did, and by not offering more years than they did. If that wouldn’t have worked, then whether letting him go was a blunder or not is more debatable. I lean toward Dave’s position, that he was worth pretty close to what Texas offered him. The M’s should have countered with more years (I believe five was the most they ever offered) and closer to the same $/yr offered. Say, 8 years at $21M (instead of 10 at $25M) might’ve forced A-Rod to seriously consider whether winning or money was more important to him.
If A-Rod had been signed (whether by extension after 1998 or 1999, or as a free agent after 2000) as I suggest he should have been, he was still 6 months away from turning 25. If they had approached A-Rod about an 8-year extension after 1998 when he was 6 months away from 23 (that would have been after the 2nd year of the 4-year deal they signed him to after 1996, when he was coming off .919, .846, and 1.045 OPS seasons in his age 20-22 seasons), they would *still* only have been committing to him through his age 32 season.
Dave’s right — Texas’ failure had much less to do with A-Rod’s contract than it did with guys like Chan Ho Park’s, and their failure to surround A-Rod with enough talent to win. The M’s had enough talent around A-Rod to win.
Paul Mocker –
Regarding my Bloomquist comment – hindsight is 20/20 and, now, it would be easy to say that drafting Bloomquist was a blunder – especially when someone like Pujols was drafted after him. However, at the time Bloomquist was drafted, he was coming off a season in which he hit .394/.495/.646 at one of the top baseball schools in the country. So – my statement was not meant to specifically rip the Mariners drafting Bloomquist (for the second time!) – the real blunder was their drafts as a whole. A lot of teams picked inferior players before Pujols, and a lot of quality players were drafted after Bloomquist (Hank Blalock, Jake Peavy, Lyle Overbay, Lew Ford…). It just goes to show that the draft can be a crapshoot.
As far as signing bonuses go – Bloomquist got $425,000 and Pujols got $60,000.
“If A-Rod had been signed (whether by extension after 1998 or 1999, or as a free agent after 2000) as I suggest he should have been, he was still 6 months away from turning 25. If they had approached A-Rod about an 8-year extension after 1998 when he was 6 months away from 23″–Comment by Pete Livengood — 10/18/2004 @ 12:34 pm
FWIW, they did.
December 12, 1998– Mariners face expensive decisions
NASHVILLE – Saying it’s too early to consider negotiating a contract extension with Seattle, Alex Rodriguez’s agent said Friday the All-Star shortstop wants to make sure the Mariners contend. “At the forefront of Alex’s concern in their ability to compete,” agent Scott Boras said. “If they’re not going to compete, his decision is affected.” Boras said Seattle contacted him during the latter part of the season to inquire whether Rodriguez was interested about an extension. “But we wanted to give them the opportunity to make adjustments,” Boras said.
March 28, 1999
SEATTLE UNCERTAIN ON CHANCES OF KEEPING JUNIOR, RODRIGUEZ
[snip]
Rodriguez, just 23, has two seasons left in a $ 10.6 million five-year deal and will be eligible for free agency at the unusually young age of 25. His agent, Scott Boras, already is sending signals that $ 200 million for 10 years may be the demand. “When you’re two years away, why think about it now?” says Rodriguez, coveted by many large-market teams. Boras said this week that Rodriguez won’t even consider an extension until after this season.
and, per Thiel: “Later that [1999] season, the Mariners offered shortstop Alex Rodriguez a deal that was also for eight years. Including a $16 million signing bonus, it would have been worth $117.5 million, for an average annual value of $14.7 million.”
I’m surprised to see people still repeating “A-Rod’s 10-year, $252 million contract” like it’s the truth instead of $cott Bora$’ greatest fiction. A-Rod’s contract was actually for 7 years at something like $170 million (as Tom Hicks said at the time); the team can get out of the last three years, and Hicks never intended to pay that last $80 million or so. Those years in the contract are only there so that Bora$ could say that one of his clients had gotten double the previous record contract in American sports (Kevin Garnett’s $126-million deal).
In other words, the offer the M’s made, in actual value to A-Rod, was right in the ballpark; and if the rumors were right that Atlanta made a last-minute 10-year $200-million offer, Alex actually would have made more money signing with the Braves. The only way in which the Rangers’ offer was significantly better was in its PR value for Bora$.
A complete list of Ex-Mariners/Prospects that advanced to the playoffs:
Mike Timlin
Jason Varitek
Derek Lowe
David Ortiz
Mike Myers
Ruben Sierra
John Olerud
Alex Rodriguez
John Mabry
Giovanni Carrara (yeesh)
Antonio Perez
Raul Chavez
Anybody else?
Pat Borders
Jose Offerman
Geez, you gotta be so precise around here …..
#35 — Matt S. You’re technically right. (though my usage is probably the more recognizable one, and at some point will likely usurp the technically correct definition and morph into the “new” correct definition much in the way that the word “diva” has evolved from “a female operatic singer of a certain octave range” to “any high-maintenance celebrity female associated with scandal.”)
But, I’ll amend to say “I beg the question” or “in context of the last question, here’s one that occurred to me.”
#38 — Derek, as you define my question, it is probably irrelevant. I ask purely out of its perverse novelty value. And I asked it the way I did specifically because I was interested in the tim period encompassed by the modern amateur draft — as a potentially entertaining way of juxtaposing extremes in talent evaluation against extremes of individual performance.
And you’re probably right about Piazza making the Hall of Fame, though I have my doubts that he’ll be a first-ballot selection five years after he last swings a bat. There are still too many BBWAA-member sportswriters who pledge unholy allegiance to counting stats, and will see to discount Piazza’s accomplishments (even as objectively the greatest-hitting catcher of all time) because he won’t come close to the Holy Grail of 3,000 hits. They’ll say that if the HOF lets in guys like Piazza, they’ll have to open the door to all sorts of guys like Al Oliver and Harold Baines … even as they come up with hypocritically convoluted arguments to vote in Roberto Alomar Jr. and Ken Griffey Jr. (Note I’m not casting judgments on who belongs or who doesn’t … I’m only pointing out that these writers are so emotionally involved with some possible HOF candidates that they’ll contradict themselves with no apparent awareness whatsoever in arguing who should get in over who doesn’t.) The arguments over Piazza, Edgar Martinez, Craig Biggio, etc. will be highly entertaining.
Since the Bonds thread doesn’t have comments enabled, I’ll give y’all this random (but frequent) thought : 73*
Nope – Bonds broke no rules. There were no rules for him to break.
Will “*73″ be the next heartwarming, sentimental, delightful, factually inaccurate baseball movie from Billy Crystal? With Will Smith as Barry, Don Cheadle as Greg Anderson, James Earl Jones as Dusty Baker, Gary Coleman as Baker’s 3-year-old son and Gene Hackman as Bud Selig?
James Earl Jones would make an excellent Dusty Baker.
And, of course, Anthony Michael Hall in the critical supporting role of Kirk Rueter.
MSB (#42) – I stand corrected about not offering a deal, but as I read the stuff you quoted, it sounds like they offered him 8 years at $14.5M when Boras was saying $20M would be needed. I still say, what if they had considered 8 years, $20M/per?
There’s a huge difference between $20M then and $20M now … even though baseball was on the upward part of a salary-inflation curve, $20M was still off the charts. Today, near the bottom of the downward slope of that curve, it’s even more off the charts … but, ironically, probably not as unthinkable as it was then.
Add in Miguel Cairo to the ex-M’s list. He was a Mariner for three weeks and in that time figured in two bad Woody Woodward deals.
They got him back for Mike Blowers in the 1995 postseason salary dump. Then 3 weeks later they traded him and Bill Risley to Toronto for Paul Menhart and Edwin Hurtado. So basically the deal was Mike Blowers & Bill Risley for Paul Menhart, Edwin Hurtado and Willie Otanez.
In ‘97 Jose Cruz, Jr. for Timlin and Spoljaric
In ‘99 David Segui for Tom Davey and Scott Sinclair
Woody Woodward definitely had a habit in odd numbered years of trading a starting player for two crappy Toronto pitchers.
Jim Thompson –
Until Piazza is inducted, I think the answer to your question is Nolan Ryan, who was drafted in the 12th round of the 1965 draft. Which reminds me – I never mentioned that Pujols was a 13th rounder.
Not knowing what exact pick Nolan Ryan was taken on, but the 12th round in a 20 team league (1965)is roughly equivalent to the 8th round in a 30 team league, excluding sandwich picks and other whatnot.
I’ve posted this elsewhere, but I’ll say it again:
Astros – Clemens ($5M) – Kent ($10) = Beltran
I’m not convinced he’s going to New York.
Well, the next closest I could find was Ozzie Smith, who was taken in the 4th round of the 1977 draft. Most of the HOFers who were drafted were taken in rounds 1-3. This is interesting and it reminds me of some research I did last spring when Bob Fontaine said, “…I have always been a firm believer that the majority of [future Major League] players come after the third round.” in an article about giving up top draft picks to sign Ibanez and Guardado.
This quote made me record the draft round of every current major leaguer (at the time of the quote) and here is the breakdown (sorry, this is really off topic, but it’s still interesting!):
Of the 740 players I looked at (current rosters at the time, plus guys on the DL, guys who had been in the bigs – but started in AAA, etc…)
There were 174 players that were not acquired through the draft.
So, of the 566 players that were drafted…
46% came from rounds 1-3 and 54% came from the 4th round on down…
So, while Fontaine is *technically* correct – it’s a very misleading statement and shows that rounds 1-3 are exponentially more important than 4 – 50.
Further thought on Bonds: steroids are bad, you shouldn’t take them, but how exactly such a discovery would tarnish his accomplishments, I don’t see. Sure, fine, they made him stronger. Big deal. Stronger isn’t what turned him into Mega-Muto-Terror Man at the plate. Steroids don’t make you quicker, as far as I’ve heard, and I know they don’t do anything for your hand-eye coordination, much less give you the ability to read the pitch before the pitcher releases it, as Gwynn says Bonds can do; and as for strength, the man was strong enough before. IMHO, the notion that steroids are “performance-enhancing” with regards to baseball is unproven.
The sad thing about Bonds and steroids is that it might obscure the fact that the leaner Bonds of the early nineties was already as good a player as most of us have ever seen.
True indeed.
#59 “steroids don’t make you quicker…”
ummm…so Ben Johnson took steroids to get stronger?
Silly statement…in 1999 he wasn’t even one of the top 100 players and now between the age of 35 and 40 he’s transformed into a player who’s bat speed is markedly faster than anyone else in the game?
So show me his comparables…how many players can you find who hit .370 and slugged .900 or whatever it was between the age of 35-40…when he came up he weighed 173 pounds, now he’s 65-70 pounds heavier, his ears look buff for crying out loud…
use your own tools and ability to analyze…
Give it time. I prefer not to say anything about him, or speculate, or find his place on the list of all-time greats, until I feel that all information that is going to come out is out. In other words, I will wait until his final days, and perhaps beyond, in case the truth behind the myth is revealed.
“In 1999 [Bonds] wasn’t even one of the top 100 players”? What a ridiculously ignorant statement. In 1999 Bonds hit 34 HR in 355 AB, posting a .617 SP to go with a .389 OBP (which was, admittedly, the first time in a decade that his OBP had been below .400). 1999 was the beginning of Bonds’ power surge; what has happened since then hasn’t been an increase in power but an increase in batting average–which I submit cannot be explained by steroids.
David J. Corcoran – I thought of another ex-Mariner in the playoffs: David McCarty. I don’t think he’s on the playoff roster, but he was on the Red Sox.
“In 1999 [Bonds] wasn’t even one of the top 100 players”? What a ridiculously ignorant statement.
I think he was referring to Bonds’ omission from the All Century Team. Speaking of which… how the hell did that happen?
Yo, Dave,
I am quite certain myself, with no way by time as the test, that the Yankees _WILL_ make the top $$$$ offer to Beltran. He fits George’s mold. Their farm systems has no stars. The team has a fine core, but has age or health issues outside of that. Matsui and Posada are, to me, the most underrated players on that team, and while A-Rod had a good-not-fantastic year, I would simply call it an off year; he’s a champ (if increasingly jerkish on field, but). Jeter will never repeat his pre-2000 numbers, but he’s still an offensive force. Giambi: will he ever be an effective player again??? He’ll DH if so, but I think the Yankees FO and owner are extremely down on him and will move heaven and hell to get out from under his contract, even if they have to eat half of it or more. Sheffield: can he even _play_ next year??? Remember, he has a chronic (and most probably steroid-induced condition) in his shoulders. Williams should be in right and is signed, but he’s subpar in center, and that’s assuming _his_ body holds up, which is no sure bet, either. The team faked there way along quite well with Cairo at 2B and more or less did the same at 1B, and could again at both positions. Signing Beltran means that there is a certain core of A-Rod, Matsui, Posada, Jeter, Beltran—that is a perennial playoff force regardless of what the rest of the roster looks like: it’s the _certainty_ of that foundation that will drive the sign. And I think they will sign him unless Beltran has his heart set on some other team.
Here’s what I think the Yankees will do in the offseason, and it is _quite_ doable for them. Sign Beltran. Sign Pavano. Deal Vazquez for another starter, probably a lefty, potentially eating a bit but not a lot of his contract. Sign one more arm for their bullpen. That’s it, but that’s plenty.
Yes, yes, the Yanks need to fix their rotation: where are the star free agent pitchers??? This simply isn’t a good offseason for that. Pavano is the best option, and they’ll make the big play. They’re down on Vazquez and Brown but Brown is nearly untradeable at his price, pitched decently this year when healthy, and has been a force in the past, while none of those statements are true of Vazquez. With this done, their rotation is Mussina, Lieber (has thrown well, and is a better bet than Radke to keep doing so, _and_ cheaper), Brown, Pavano, [acquisition for Vazquez here]. Frankly, the idea, mentioned above, of the Yankees going after Randy Johnson again makes so much sense that I feel sure they’ll go back and do the deal, perhaps in a three-way for Vazquez to line up the bodies, particularly because Johnson gave a strong hint that he’d go for it. Randy is a much, much better option then Pedro at this point in their careers, think about it. The Yanks may look to do a further deal for a starter in season when other guys come on the market, but the rotation I suggest above is more than adequate to _start_ the season; if it includes Johnson it is more than adequate to do deep in post season, health issues (which could well be very, very major with that group) excluded. But George has a history of discounting health problems long-term since he always budgets for the short-term.
Or so sez I.
So Ancient Mariner, #59 . . . I _really_ suggest that you get some information on what steroids actually do for you. Really. That done, you will have no need to posit further.
—But since you don’t have that info, apparently, consider this: It’s not that hard to hit flyballs at the major league level, it’s just that they tend to end up in outfielders gloves. Supposing you send a buddy down Mexico way who comes back with a simple potion that can reliably add 30 feet to every solidly hit flyball you can put in the air next year. For a guy like, say, Jeff Cirillo (just to pick a name) who has no great power to begin with, that means you tattoo the walls for a bunch of line drive doubles for a couple of years. For a guy like Jay Bell (pick a name, any name) who’s good for about ten jacks a year, even down in ThinArizona, that’s worth about 20 homeruns and a career year at an advanced age wildly at variance with demonstrated career abilities. For a guy like Bonds, with outstanding vision, super quick hands and a regular for 40 jacks a year, that’s 60+. Mr. Personality down in SF appeared to get on the stuff in ‘99, you have that exactly right (although yes, I know that’s not what you wrote), that was the year that Barry, once my favorite player, became the Guy I Leave the Room For.
“I think he was referring to Bonds’ omission from the All Century Team. Speaking of which… how the hell did that happen? –Comment by Jurgen — 10/19/2004 @ 11:45 pm
um, because it was a fan vote? the final votes for “Outfielders”– the top nine were selected to the team:
1. Babe Ruth………………1,158,044
2. Hank Aaron…………… 1,156,782
3. Ted Williams…………. 1,125,583
4. Willie Mays…………….1,115, 896
5. Joe DiMaggio…………. 1,054,423
6. Mickey Mantle…………… 988,168
7. Ty Cobb………………….777,056
8. Ken Griffey Jr………. ….645,389
9. Pete Rose………………..629,742
10. Roberto Clemente… ……..582,937
11. Stan Musial…………… 571,279
12. Joe Jackson…. ………. 326,415
13. Reggie Jackson…………..296,039
14. Tony Gwynn.. …………….232,476
15. Carl Yastrzemski…………222,082
16. Frank Robinson…………..220,226
17. Rickey Henderson…………180,940
18. Barry Bonds…………… 173,279
19. Lou Brock…………….. 131,361
20. Billy Williams…………. 97,911
21. Tris Speaker…………… 84, 461
22. Willie Stargell…………..71,585
23. Al Kaline……………… .67,719
24. Duke Snider………………63,410
25. Cool Papa Bell……… … 59,189
26. Mel Ott………………….51,748
27. Ralph Kiner…….. ………32,302
28. Al Simmons…………….. 15,930
29. Paul Waner….. ……….. 15,057
30. Oscar Charleston……….. 13,893
31. Joe Medwick. ……………..11,238
32. Wee Willie Keeler…………10,553
33. Goose Goslin………………9,475
34. Harry Heilmann…………….9,415
Bela:
1) I’ve spent enough time around doctors to have a fair bit of knowledge on steroids (including the knowledge that I don’t like taking them). I never claimed my knowledge was encyclopedic (hence the “as far as I’ve heard”), but that doesn’t mean I know nothing.
2) The biggest difference in Bonds, aside from his fluke 73, has been an increase in batting average, not power (well, that and walks, which is largely the result of the league now being scared to death of him). A guy who was usually a .290-.300 hitter has, in the last four years, hit .328, .370, .341 and .362; it seems to me that if you’re going to put down his improvement to steroids, then steroids have to explain that (and in that case, you should really start agitating to have Ichiro checked).
Bonds’s best seasons have happened in this century, not that one. I think the real crime on the list was the omission of Rickey. Rickey should have scored ahead of at least 3 guys in the top 10 (Griffey, Clemente, Mantle)