2005 Managerial Speculation
I’m going to add to this as we work on it, so please, if you don’t see someone here, be patient.
Internal organizational candidates
Minor league managers
Dan Rohn. Manager, Tacoma Rainiers.
Rohn’s been recognized as a fine minor league manager. He’s a player’s manager in a different way than Melvin was. Where Melvin let the team run, Rohn’s happy to shake things up without beating up on people — dumb stuff like cancelling BP if the team’s dragging, for instance. Rohn’s been able to get a lot out of his players and keep a team together even as it was pillaged by the M’s. Rohn’s tactical game is predictable in some situations, which at the major league level would be scouted and exploited.
Dave Brundage. Manager, San Antonio Missions. Organization loves him, he’s a fiery motivator type. Doesn’t care for stats at all, and his teams run like crazy on the basepaths. It’s worked for him, though, and it’s not as if he’s making really low-percentage plays. What I really like about Brundage is that while he may not care about stats, he’d clock his mom if it meant he could win a game. If the opposing team has a terrible player at third who can’t charge bunts, he’ll have the team bunt at that guy until they sub him out. If their catcher has a hitch in his throw, he’ll steal bases every pitch he can get away with it. If you’re as tired of seeing Melvin mechanically steal a base instead of using brain power to figure out how to steal a game, Brundage is the manager you want.
Both of these guys would be upgrades over Melvin. They have managerial experience where he does not, they’re used to working with young players, which Melvin did not, and in particular players they’re going to try and build the team around. Rohn is a good choice for managerial experience, Brundage would likely remake the team’s style in his image, with all the risk and reward inherent in that kind of project.
Bryan Price, pitching coach, Mariners. Price was a finalist in the managerial running last time. He was thought to lack the required experience, but someone who might take over for Melvin down the road. Which doesn’t make sense, since Melvin had no managerial experience to speak of either. Anyway, Price’s reputation’s taken a huge hit since Piniella. It seems strange that Price managed to win Piniella’s respect and turn Lou’s greatest weakness into a strength by demonstrating to Lou the benefits of shorter leashes, rest patterns, and Price also did a lot of work in when to pull guys against leaving them in, bullpen management, and so on. And yet under Melvin, supposedly a more progressive thinker, the team went to endless L/R platoon matchups out of the bullpen, where guys warmed up eight times a game only to not come in, and inexplicably wore out their starting pitchers over seasons and over games.
What happened? Did Price get dumb? Stripped of authority? Did Melvin not listen to him? Only Price can answer these questions, but no one’s asking.
In a larger sense, pitching coaches almost never go on to become good managers, which seems weird but… it’s also true. We can speculate on why this is — I personally don’t see why someone smart like Price couldn’t pick it up — but it remains that it’s a huge barrier to overcome.
External candidates
Melvin fired
Tim Hevly, team spokesman, confirms. It’s up on ESPN. So far we’ve heard nothing as to the reasons behind the firing, but at this point it doesn’t matter much whether he was fired for the right or the wrong reasons. All we could do with that information is do the tea leaf-reading routine, because it’s likely that the candidate will be sold to us as meeting those requirements.
Edit: Added by Dave: As I alluded to last night, the entire staff, minus Bryan Price, also did not have their contracts renewed. Despite Price not being fired, his job as pitching coach is not guaranteed for ’05. If the new manager would like to bring in his own pitching coach, Price could be reassigned.
Edited by Derek to add: ahhh, boy, nothing like a good housecleaning. Everyone but Price gone. Myers may be back in some capacity — especially if they hire Rohn/Brundage. Aldrete I don’t know about.
Also, reasons emerge. They’re sort of vague non-reasons, but the interesting thing is how this search will contrast from how Bavasi was hired: that the’re going to decide on someone, go after that person, and if that fails, go to the next person on the list. At the same time, the list of ‘consideration’ will be pretty large, since they’re going to great pains to say that they’re not going to rule anyone out.
This from the Times made me laugh.
As for when he made the decision on Melvin, Bavasi said it wasn’ t until five or six days ago that he made up his mind. And now what will he need to replace him?
Hee hee. Is he implying that a decision wasn’t made by Bavasi, but instead higher-ups? I mean, we knew he was most probably getting fired way back, and I knew it was certain after that letter to season ticket holders. But like saying there was nothing negative to say about Melvin, this is a polite white lie to make this a less painful occasion. We can mock the M’s for their feel-good ways, but there’s something to be said about trying to conduct your public affairs with class (counter-example: Mets firing Art Howe).
Another funny thing: Bavasi said that the team’s going to be looking for players this off-season that are “self-starters” which cracks me up in a couple ways:
– the player that gets to this level of competition without busting their butt is pretty freaking small, whether they appear unemotional (like Olerud, Grieve, others) or not
– isn’t it in some way a manager’s failure if their players are unmotivated? I’m only saying.
– last year it was “veteran grit” and this year it’s going to be “self-starting”. You know what might be good? And this is just a suggestion — good players. Something to think about.
Oh yeah…
Rene Rivera, Mickey Lopez… was I the only one who forgot these guys were even on the roster? It was cool to see Lopez get his first major league hit, but I hope he enjoys it, as it very well may be his only major league hit.
Looking Ahead to ’05
I’m not going to get into a specific “what Dave would do” plan in this post. We’ll lay out our suggestions in time as the offseason begins. Instead, this is a general overview into what the team needs, broken down by section.
Management
Bob Melvin will officially be relieved of his duties as manager of the club in the morning, and a search for the club’s new skipper will begin immediately. Expect the team to do interviews during the playoffs and hold a press conference to introduce the new manager shortly after the World Series has ended and the moratorium on transactions is lifted.
In less well known news, expect an announcement, perhaps tomorrow, that Pat Gillick will also be leaving the organization to “pursue other interests”. He has already expressed public interest in the available Washington job, and I will be surprised if he’s not the General Manager of another club next year.
There is a real possibility that the entire coaching staff from ’04 will be dismissed. Depending on who is chosen as new manager, Bryan Price could find himself being reassigned or released from his contract. If the team chooses an internal candidate such as Dan Rohn or Dave Brundage, the promotion of Rafael Chaves to major league pitching coach is a real possibility.
Position Players
The team has seven everyday players under contract who are nearly guaranteed a spot on the ’05 roster, barring trades; Olivo, Ibanez, Jacobsen, Spiezio, Boone, Winn, and Ichiro. These seven will most likely occupy starting spots at catcher, first base, second base, and all three outfield spots, as well as two of the six bench spots. That leaves the team with holes in the everyday line-up at third base, shortstop (depending on who you believe about Jose Lopez’s destination), designated hitter, and four bench spots. Players such as Reed and Leone are considered possibilities, but fall more into the longshot realm, and most likely won’t make the opening day roster without some help.
Rotation
The team will plan on having Moyer, Meche, and Madritsch fill three of the rotation spots. Pineiro’s health is a question mark, making him a possibility for the 4th spot, but he will not be counted on when building the roster. Franklin will likely be moved to the bullpen or traded. Expect the team to acquire two major league starting pitchers during the offseason.
Bullpen
The bullpen is in the greatest flux. There are seven candidates for six spots currently on the roster, but only Shigetoshi Hasegawa is going to be determined to be part of the mix for offseason planning. Guardado (for health concerns), Sherrill, Atchison, Mateo, Putz, and Franklin will all be considered possibilities, but none are guaranteed a spot in the ’05 pen. Expect the team to acquire at least one major league reliever.
Overall, I’d put the over/under on new incoming players at eight, including the most substantial changes to the makeup of the roster this team has seen in quite some time. Regarding the cinicism of fans who expect more of the past, I can only suggest that you take a wait and see approach. The regime that persuaded management to avoid long contracts and superstar players in favor of a balanced, 25-as-1 approach has lost power. Whether the “big splash” that the organization is undoubtedly going to make will be a wise one is yet to be determined, but I have no doubt in my mind that the Mariners will be among the most active and aggressive teams in the market this winter.
Starting tomorrow, everything changes. Let’s hope the changes are for the better.
Looking Back on ’04
Now that the worst season in Mariner history is over, we can look back at just what went wrong.
Offensive Ranks
Runs (698): 25th in MLB, 14th in AL
BA (.270): 11th in MLB, 6th in AL
OBP (.331): 19th in MLB, 10th in AL
SLG (.396): 27th in MLB, 14th in AL
Part of the offensive struggles can be assigned to Safeco Field, which played as the best pitcher’s park in baseball this year. It deflated run scoring 17.4 percent compared to a league average park. However, Safeco actually increased home runs and doubles slightly, and the glaring lack of power had nothing to do with the home park. The M’s simply had a roster of singles hitters with no power. Stick that kind of team in a park that is death to singles and you’re going to finish last in the league in runs more often than not.
Defensive Ranks
ERA (4.76): 21st in MLB, 8th in AL
BAA (.264): 12th in MLB, 4th in AL
OBPA (.336): 17th in MLB, 8th in AL
SLGA (.441): 24th in MLB, 11th in AL
Defensive Efficiency (.700): 6th in MLB, 2nd in AL
Considering how pitcher friendly Safeco was this year, you could make a case that the M’s were the worst team in baseball at preventing runs. While we talked quite a bit throughout the year about the defensive downgrades the team took, the majority of the blame falls squarely on the shoulders of the pitchers, as the defense was actually the strength of the team. It just wasn’t the Greatest Defense Played in 50 Years level that we saw in 2003, and the falloff was noticable. We also need to remember that a majority of the extraordinarily poor performances were achieved by pitchers who were simply getting a tryout after the team was out of contention, so the overall numbers don’t reflect entirely why the team played so poorly the first two months.
The season can basically be summed up into thirds, I believe.
April/May
The offense vastly underperforms expectations, failing to score enough runs to win ballgames. The pitching staff is slightly above average but let down by a below average defense. The combination leads to many losses.
June/July
The offense and defense improve slightly, but the impact isn’t significant, as the pitching gets significantly worse. The small gains seen by the positional players are overwhelmed by the leap backwards taken by the pitchers.
August/September
Team officially gives up, plays a cast of replacement level players, results stop bearing any relevance to team that was built in offseason. Offense and defense take significant steps forward, pitching gets even worse, but overall effect is evened out by surges from everyday players.
If someone asks why the ’04 Mariners failed, the true answer is not any one thing. The inexplicable collapses by Scott Spiezio and Rich Aurilia certainly hurt. There was no backup plan for inevitable collapses by Ryan Franklin and Shigetoshi Hasegawa. The injuries to Joel Pineiro, Rafael Soriano, Julio Mateo, and Eddie Guardado exposed an overrated pitching staff. Nearly every single veteran experienced greater-than-should-be-expected decline. The team was bad from day one, going wire-to-wire in last place. There was no one reason, no singular hole to fix. The good ship Mariner sprunk leaks on all sides, and making it seaworthy again will be a challenge. That is why the next post is titled “Looking Ahead to ’05”.
And so it ends
Congratulations, Edgar. We don’t care that you didn’t end your career with a home run. The first 309 were good enough. Thank you for an amazing career.
Separate post for game, other complaints
Overheard at the ballpark, 10/2, with extended preface:
I was sitting next to this 10-yr old kid tonight, who talked to me about everything, and was pretty quick on the uptake. In fact, I think he might have done a better job as a GM last year than the actual team’s much-more experienced brain trust would have. (“Who did we trade Guillen for?” “What? That was stupid.”) So I answered his questions as best I could through the game, explaining who Kida and the other pitchers were, so on. Then when they started to make preparations for Edgar’s ceremony, bringing out these red carpets, he said —
“If Masao Kida steps on the carpet, we should throw tomatoes at him. Because they won’t stain (briefest of pauses) the carpet.” — Austin
I’m still laughing about this. He was comedy gold for a whole game and then still had it in him to bust that out… man. I’ve tried a couple of times to write that quote up and I can’t quite capture the absolutely perfect rhythm that joke had, and he wasn’t even reaching for it, it was like he’d made this other funny point and then… man.
My big complaint: let Edgar play. If Edgar was game, and he must have been, let him take an inning at third. Before the game, I was hoping secretly that if the game was out of hand they’d let him come in to play the field, and when he came out I was so happy my head almost came apart from smiling so hard. To see Edgar take the field at third… oh, how great was that? And to immediately pull him, to make it sort of an honorary appearance to get another ovation — what? I can’t speak for Edgar, but I felt like I’d been slapped. As if Melvin had said “Hey, Edgar, you’re fine as an attention-getting novelty, but I don’t want to see you actually take a ball out there.”
The team’s down 10-4 in the top of the ninth. They’re barely going to escape losing 100 games this season. If Edgar wanted to play an inning at third in a blowout, why not? If he wasn’t embarassed to be out there, and he obviously wasn’t, should we be embarassed for him?
Even Austin picked up on this.
Austin: What just happened?
Me: They put Edgar in at third and then subbed in Bloomquist for him. You’re going to have a question for me in five seconds, and I’m not going to have a good answer for you.
(so I watch Austin, and I could actually see his brain working… 1,2,3,4 — he starts to speak and his sister (I think) puts her hand over his mouth and tries to wrestle him down, because… well, Austin and I had been making cracks about John Stamos, which is another topic entirely. Austin breaks free at last and says)
Austin: Why would they do that?
Me: I don’t know.
Austin: They should let him play third.
Me: I know.
Austin: This stinks.
I think he’s going to be officially endorsed by the U.S.S. Mariner this off-season, but that’s just a hunch.
So to my minor complaint: look, it’s Edgar’s night. I don’t like Bud Selig, and I didn’t boo him. I’ve been greatly disappointed by Gary Locke as governor, and I bit my tongue. For Edgar’s sake, would it have been that hard not to boo people, out of respect for the occasion?
Edgar Martinez night
I was so happy to see Edgar get his due. On the ceremony itself, I thought it was kind and well-done, and Edgar’s speech was great. Thanks, Edgar.
I particularly thought it was great that so many people showed up — announced attendance was 45,817 making for two nights of packed, enthusiastic crowds. The game was pretty quick (especially considering the score and pitchers used) and it seemed like almost everyone stuck around, even though the ceremony ran a little long for a lot of people with kids (or whatever — four hours is a lot of time in a seat).
I was glad to find I was in such good company in appreciating everything Edgar’s done.
Edgar
#11 in your scorebooks, #1 in our hearts.
Thanks Edgar.
MLB
Right now, the Dodgers and Giants are playing for the NL West. The A’s and Angels are playing for the AL West. These are two of the most exciting games of the year, classic duels between rivals with divisional crowns and playoff births on the line.
I couldn’t watch either of these games no matter how hard I tried. They’re blacked out on MLB.tv because Fox has national Saturday broadcast rights. Of course, my local Fox channel is showing the news. At some point, they’ll follow with Cops, and maybe a re-run of Seinfeld or two. I could go to the local sports bar, who won’t be able to show the games. I could go to a friends house who has MLB Extra Innings, but you won’t get the games there either.
Major League Baseball has made sure that everyone living in the eastern time zone can’t watch the two most exciting games of the year. Well done, boys. Great way to build your product.