Smoke does not mean Koskie
DMZ · November 21, 2004 at 6:17 pm · Filed Under Mariners
It doesn’t matter what Koskie or Koskie’s agent or dog or hairdresser or mother says at this point, he’s not signed until he’s signed.
I also want to mention that the Leone for Third thing on Koskie was a joke, a parody of MLB.com’s writing.
It was not an actual article. Koskie has not signed. Stop putting this article in the comments. I’m really tired of deleting them, and I’m || close to giving up and granting people the benefit of whether they’re trolling or confused.
Thank you.
Update: here’s Dave’s post on why Corey Koskie’s a bad idea.
Comments
38 Responses to “Smoke does not mean Koskie”
Although I agree with you that this may just be posturing on the Koskie front, normally where there’s smoke there’s fire. too many reputible sources are reporting similar information. I would not mind Koskie as a last option and at the price the Twins already offered of 2 years 7 million. I would not pay more than 4 million per year. My guess is that w/in the next 2 weeks we will be welcoming our new 3rd basemen Corey Koskie @ 3 years 15 million. Everyone has high expectations but the reality is Delgado, Russ Ortiz and Koskie.
I didn’t say it’s just posturing. My point is that until he signs, it’s all noise. He may very well sign yet.
Sweet Moses, the disclaimer was right there in the first paragraph.
For anyone confused, Leone for Third also has a great writeup on why in the world the Mariners “MIGHT” be offering a contract, or why Koskie and his agent are saying they are. I would reccomend it!
Huber’s Corollary (to Murphy’s Law): If you make something idiot-proof, someone will invent a better idiot.
Touche.
if the mariners sign koskie i will kill myself.
What’s so bad about Koskie?
Isaac, if you feel compelled to kill yourself if they sign Koskie, at least have fun with it and be original. It really upsets me that people take the easy way out and copy other people.
I was looking at the posts on the Seattle PI blog, and people have posted Sullivan’s parody there as truth. The whole thing, word for word, except for the disclaimer. This is undoubtedly why at least some people are confused.
I wouldn’t be too worried about Koskie. There are also people saying that the M’s are contenders for Carlos Delgado, Richie Sexson, Adrian Beltre, Russ Ortiz, Carl Pavano, Troy Glaus, and, most recently, Mike Redmond. Most of these are from reputable sources (by which I mean more credible sources than the aforementioned chump on the PI blog). Anyhow, all of these things are just rumors. The only thing that bothers me about Koskie is the lack of other teams being mentioned. However, there are few teams mentioned in regard to Beltre as well.
I just hope that the M’s can swing a really good trade. If that happens, their plan for free agency will change as well. Hopefully, Bavasi and Lincoln have looked at the offseason models posted here by Dave and on leoneforthird by Jeff. Both of those strategies would be great, even if the M’s had to go a bit further to make sure they went through.
This is what you get for your mini-reviews of Mo Vaughn and Jamey Wright.
To clear up a minor error, the offseason model at L43 was written by Trent, not me. I haven’t decided if I’ll do something like that, since it would almost assuredly leave me disappointed a few months from now.
Sorry for the misquote Jeff,
The bottom line is, I think that Beltre, Drew, and Clement would be the best plan for the M’s this offseason, with a few peripheral moves. Adding one other bat via trade is the way forward, and Wilkerson and Kearns are two guys who would fit in well. Wilkerson is a better player right now, but Kearns probably has more upside. I also like the idea of trading for role players like Cintron, Nady, and Riley for needs that we can’t fill internally.
It sucks that things are so quite right now. It is like the week leading up to Christmas when you were a kid. However, in this case, the timing is less predictable and the possiblity of major disappointment is much greater. I am glad that the M’s haven’t gone out and signed a bunch of crap players prematurely like other teams are doing right now. However, the rumors that are swirling right now are not that encouraging.
I have a question that is totally off-topic:
I have read a lot of stuff mentioning PECOTA estimates of how players will perform in the future. I was wondering what the reliability of this system has been in the past few years, and what some of its failings might be. I really like stats, but my knowledge of the really complex or newer stats is pretty weak. I was wondering if you guys could explain this.
Open question to those who know more than I: Is the front office really assinine enough to sign a couple of no-names like R. Ortiz and Koskie, and a geezer like Delgado and expect such moves to both make the team hugely better (not bleedin’ likely) and convince Seattle fans to buy thousands of season tickets (even less likely)?
PECOTA’s the best projection system out there, and not just because it does the best estimates but also because it offers an idea of the likely range of performance, which is also useful, it finds players who are most similar, so you can make comparisons yourself and decide how much stock you want to put it in, and it also admits when it’s taking a wild-ass guess.
It’s weak on unique players. It predicted a collapse for Edgar every year while Edgar continued to hit while aging. It doesn’t know what to do with Ichiro! because there haven’t been any other players like Ichiro! so when it pulls comperables it finds lesser players and projects him to suck.
re #14: Jerry – here’s a link to an article at Baseball Prospectus comparing PECOTA with some other player projection systems:
PECOTA Takes on the Field – How’d it Fare Against Six Other Projections Systems?
PECOTA is also pretty conservative. It won’t call the “breakout season.” It seems to be better at predicting declines (whether right or wrong) than big improvements. But that’s understandable, given how the numbers are calculated. It’s a very useful system.
Colm, your last point is what I’ve been preaching for awhile now. I’m seriously thinking that the M’s are going to HAVE to look at the pool of Free Agents on the market right now, and round up some average Joes to make up their wish list. In order to keep their fence-sitting, non-VORP-speaking fans in the seats, they’re going to have to sign someone that type of fan will know and like. That could be a good thing (Beltran) or it could be a bad thing (Sexson). The point is, I’m pretty sure even tight-fisted, coal-into-diamond-compressing Howard Lincoln is well aware that he has to make a big splash to keep the money rolling in. That splash has to include SOMEONE the average Joe M’s fan can get excited about.
That’s why I’m holding out hope. I’m not optimistic, per se, but I do have a glimmer of hope that something FINALLY good will happen this Hot Stove League…
No projection system is good about the “breakout season” in fairness. And PECOTA’s picked some unlikely ones (the constantly-flogged one is Wily Mo Pena’s season this year) that panned out.
PECOTA does give some indication of the potential for breakout when you look at the forecast: you’ll see, for instance, a far greater range of potential outcomes for a player who might do something wacky.
Hey DMZ, could you do write-ups for Rich Aurilia and John Olerud. I hear they’re pretty good.
Isn’t Olerud a local boy? And I heard he was a big help to the Yankees during their stretch run, they were glad to have him. Given that first base is a big question mark for the Ms for 2005, I think that he might be exactly what we need. He posts some good OBPs, too, so the stat heads should be happy with him.
I honestly believe Justin Leone would be able to hit .250 with 20 HRs. Koskie isn’t worth the money.
Amen to that, DJC! Ultimately, I’d like Beltre, Beltre, or Beltre, but I MIGHT be convinced to take a risk with Glaus. Otherwise, I’d save the money on yet another declining slightly-above-average player. Besides, we’re already shelling out 3 million on Spiezio, who did OK there defensively. Another possibility would be to nab a SS and move Lopez to third. Lopez, Leone, Cabrera, Spiezio, and possibly Dobbs are ALL better options than Koskie.
Beltre should be our utmost and only 3B priority. I might’ve been OK with Vinny Castilla as a short-term fix to let Lopez develop one more season in AAA, but Beltre is available for a couple of freakin’ draft picks, if even that!!!
If he doesn’t want to come here, then fine! Avoid Koskie. Look hard in the trade market (a return for David Bell?) but DON’T give us Corey F. Koskie!!!
Vinny Castilla?
So, is this Koskie thing just the M’s way of telling we M’s fans that we had better be prepared for lesser signings and not the signing of the “big” named free agents??? Koskie is only a above-average 3B in my book. If the M’s can “do no better” in the long run, and “have” to sign someone, then yes, he could plug the hole for a year or two, maybe. I seem to remember they traded for a 3B a few years back, who hit big time in the NL, average, some dingers, drove in runs, high life time BA, but came here and did a nose dive into oblivion, and the M’s were stuck with this massive, couldn’t move contract, that I think they are still paying some on. What was that guy’s name? Jeff something-the-other. A complete dud here and in SD also. No, the M’s do not need to sign any more stop gap players. If stop gap is the best they can do, then get someone young, and start to rebuild. The Indians did it for a couple of years, now they are getting very close with very good young players again.
I agree David J. I don’t think Justin will ever get that chance though.
Note: I said “might’ve.” I was more intrigued by Castilla as a “power at the corners” 3B guy than Tony Bautista.
I’m not interested at all in Koskie, or any other option, really.
Point is, S&AM, fickle non-VORP-speaking M’s fans will not tolerate a team full of inexperienced youngsters. I’d argue that these fans probably are aware of the M’s financial coziness and would demand that Howard and his croonies bring some big-named folks on board to keep some excitement in the game. They come to Safeco to see the M’s win. If they’re not winning, then the fans won’t be coming. We saw that this year. There were a lot of empty seats at Safeco, in spite of the actual announced “paid attendance”. I’d be willing to bet that there were NOT 2.7+ million fans actually at Safeco Field this season. A LOT of pre-purchased tickets went un-resold.
koskie WILL be the second coming of sandfrog. im guessing he’d go .230/.300/.400 in safeco. it would be a depressing, useless waste of 15 million dollars. seriously, i WILL DRIVE MY 1998 JETTA OFF THE AURORA BRIDGE OF THE MARINERS SIGN HIM.
I will seriously consider becoming an Oakland fan if Koskie is signed.
The level of Koskie phobia here is laughable. I understand M’s fans are skittish about 3Bs in general, since the last two men at the position sucked in big-time. Also, there seems to be a feeling that only a few key names will atone for the past season. However, Koskie is only superficially similar to Cirillo or Spezio.
Cirillo is a rather unique character in history. He had some very good years in MIL, followed by some years that looked good in COL. The Coors effect is still not really understood, and I think it is safe to say that he underperformed even the most pessimistic projections. To say that Koskie bears any resemblance at all to this situation is ridiculous. We are talking about Metrodome effects, not Coors effects. I am sure Koskie is somewhat helped by the dome (as are all the Twins), but any player’s 3-year splits without context really has very little meaning.
Spezio just sucks. He has always sucked, and apparently the M’s did not realize this. He only topped an 0.800 OPS once in his career, and he was not really even a full-time player in ANA. Koskie has topped an 0.800 OPS in every season as a full-time player. Even in 2004, considered a dissapointing year, he managed to hit for an 0.837 OPS. Speizio and Koskie are not really comparable at all.
Koskie is an injury risk, to be sure. Any contract over 3 years is probably playing with fire, but I think most of the fear is based on two players who don’t really compare at all.
hes also a large unathlectic red head.
http://www.geocities.com/corco16446/koskiesea.jpg
Erik Allen— here is where they are similar:
they play 3b
they’ve had modest success in the past
they are in the decline-phase (or at least age) of their careers when the M’s decide to pick them up.
maybe if we’re lucky we can overpay Koskie for 2 years of playing and one year of nothing, follow that with 3 tail-end years of Rolen, 2 years of X proceeded by signed Beltre when he is 32 and in the decline phase.
that’s just the way the M’s have worked in the past.
i hope they take a chance and go for the young guy, just this once!!!
Cirillo and Koskie would be about the same baseball age during their first seasons with the M’s if we acquired Koskie, and this team does NOT need to add more 30+ players who will need to be replaced once we can realistically contend in 2006 or 2007.
If this was a 90 win team or even a .500 team, players like Koskie or Delgado might be acceptable risks, on the grounds that one good year from them might be the difference between a ring and no ring. But a 63 win team that already has very little in the way of potential All-Star talent under 30 in the next couple of years shouldn’t be stuffing the roster full of veterans in their decline phase, simply because the way to win pennants consistently is to have good YOUNG players, and building around 30-35 year olds is a building a castle out of sand- every year the tide of old age washes away an Olerud, a Moyer, a Sasaki, an Edgar or a Boone. The Mets try to do this every year, spend a zillion dollars on older FA’s, because they are a big-market team and feel compelled to spend all that money on SOMEBODY, goddamn it, and it doesn’t get them anywhere. Meanwhile their farm system rots on the vine, and they end up with players who are never as good as their paychecks imply they should be.
Pocket Lint has names.
You won’t like them, unless you’re a big fan of everyone Dave and the USSM have red-flagged.
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/sports/2002098303_mari23.html
With the free-agent shopping mart in its second week, the Mariners have focused on shaping proposals for first baseman Carlos Delgado, third baseman Corey Koskie and pitchers Jaret Wright, Jon Lieber, Ron Villone and Carl Pavano.
I think I’ll go have a drink now…
This may be overly optimistic, because I have no real reason to be, but isn’t it possible that Bavasi’s playing the “we’ve got other options” game in the not-so-competitive Beltre sweepstakes? I mean, how many teams NEED a 3B AND have cash flow? LA and the M’s, right? Who could possibly be stupid enough to sign Koskie (even if you though that was a good idea) before seriously exploring every option regarding the younger, more talented player? I mean really, could they be that short-sighted? And by short sighted I mean seeing into the future and the past.
Who could possibly be stupid enough to sign Koskie (even if you though that was a good idea) before seriously exploring every option regarding the younger, more talented player?
You mean like how the M’s signed Ibanez and the Angels signed Guillen AND Guerrero after that?