Dave’s Plan
A couple of weeks ago, I wrote up my predictions for what the M’s would do this offseason. With the start of free agency only eleven hours away, now it’s my turn to extrapolate on how I would rebuild this team. I did a short suggestion write-up and a longer team construction post last year, and as you can see, the team basically gave me the finger, signing four players from the “Stay the Heck Away” category. I’m more optimistic that the team’s thinking this year is at least within the same stratosphere as my own. Keep in mind that this is entirely hypothetical, and I’m making a lot of assumptions on possibilities that we can’t know are true or not. An explanation of the moves will be found below the roster. All the salaries listed will be actual payout in 2005, rather than average annual value.
Position Player Salary C Olivo 0.4 1B Ibanez 3.8 2B Boone 9.0 3B Beltre 9.0 SS Reese 1.5 LF Kearns 3.0 CF Drew 10.0 RF Ichiro 12.0 DH Jacobsen 0.3 C Wilson 1.0 Inf Spiezio 3.1 Out Reed 0.3 Util Leone 0.3 Util F. Lopez 1.0 SP1 Clement 6.0 SP2 Madritsch 0.3 SP3 Pineiro 4.2 SP4 Meche 3.0 SP5 Moyer 7.5 Closer Guardado 4.5 Setup Osuna 2.0 Setup Sherrill 0.3 Relief Hasegawa 3.0 Relief Putz 0.3 Long Atchison 0.3 Total: 86.1
Free Agent Signings:
Adrian Beltre: 7 years, $84 million, escalating from $9 million in 2005
Pokey Reese: 1 year, $1.5 million, club option for 2nd year at $2 million with $250,000 buyout
J.D. Drew: 3 years, $33 million, mutual option for 4th year at $14 million
Dan Wilson: 1 year, $1 million
Matt Clement: 3 years, $22 million, escalating from $6 million in 2005
Antonio Osuna: 1 year, $2 million, club option for 2nd year at $2.5 million, $300,000 buyout
Trades:
Ryan Franklin, Clint Nageotte, Shin-Soo Choo, and Julio Mateo to Cincinatti for Austin Kearns and Felipe Lopez.
Randy Winn to Baltimore for Matt Riley
Explanations by position:
Catcher:
Olivo is neither as good as he was in Chicago or as bad as he was in Seattle. Considering the available options, giving him a chance to start is the best option. Dan Wilson’s return is simply a public relations move coming off a season where the team cannot afford to alienate any more of its fans. Finding a reasonably priced backup catcher who would be a significant enough upgrade on Wilson to offset the loss of goodwilll from sending Wilson packing is nearly impossible. Despite the fact that he doesn’t really belong in MLB, I would bring Wilson back for one last season simply as a gesture of good faith.
First Base:
I’m not a believer in spending big money on a position that is this easy to fill. Ibanez is a liability in left field with the glove, and his defensive limitations can be hidden, somewhat, with a shift to first base. This also allows for an easy platoon with Jacobsen against left-handers. Spiezio fills in as defensive replacement.
Second Base:
Boone’s contract is immovable, so you simply hope he performs well enough to be trade bait at the deadline. The acquisition of Felipe Lopez gives the team a legitimate option to turn to if Boone’s decline continues.
Shortstop:
The crop of free agent shortstops are simply not inviting. Pass on the overpriced and overrated and offer Pokey Reese a chance to play most every day for a pittance. His defense will be a boon to the pitching staff, and Felipe Lopez can provide offensive support if his bat fails to show up at all. The hope is that Lopez’s improvements are real enough where he can claim the everyday job during the season, relegating Reese back into the utility player role he was born for.
Third Base:
Yes, it’s overspending, but not to the point where it’s going to be a burden even if Beltre performs to peak level. There’s some built in risk, but the Mariners need a franchise talent, and 25 year old MVP candidates at premium positions aren’t available very often. Take the risk.
Left Field:
The Reds just don’t know what to do with Austin Kearns. He’s been working out at third base during the offseason, but that experiment isn’t going well. He can certainly be had for the right price, and the hope is that a package that brings the Reds an innings eater, a league minimum young reliever, and two solid prospects while saving them approximately $1 million in 2005 salary is enough to make the deal. Kearns has an all-star bat and is one of the few opportunities to buy low on a potential elite player. He’s simply a 500 at-bat season away from being a monster, and he will never be available for this little again. Reed spells Kearns and provides help as the fourth outfielder.
Center Field:
We’ve been talking up J.D. Drew’s bat for quite a while, and now that Boras has stated his willingness to play center field, he moves up the list. His range is adequate for the position, while his offense makes him a superstar. The health risks are definitely there, but on a three year contract, the payoff is high enough to justify the move. Will this contract be enough to talk him into leaving Atlanta? Probably not in a perfect world, but the Braves are feeling a severe budget crunch and may be hard pressed making Drew a legitimate offer. Reed and Ichiro’s presence on the roster provide insurance in case of injury.
Right Field:
Ichiro’s still pretty good. Kearns moves to right field when Ichiro needs a day off, with Reed sliding into left.
Designated Hitter:
Bucky deserves a chance to at least enter the season as the regular DH. At $300,000, there’s no risk, and he offers potential of average performance for peanuts. Leone should get some time here, as well.
#1 starter:
Matt Clement is a solid pitcher with enough positive markers that its reasonable to believe that he could take a Jason Schmidt-style leap. The best value pitcher on the market, and Safeco will only help him.
#2 starter:
Madritsch was one of the premier pitchers in the American League in the second half. While he’s as good as he’s going to get, the ability to keep the ball in the park and throw consistent strikes makes him a solid bet to be an above average starter for several years.
#3 starter:
Pineiro’s health is still a big question mark, but he’s a solid third starter if he can overcome the injuries. Matt Riley’s acquisition is entirely driven by the questions surrounding Pineiro’s health, and he would be first in line for this rotation spot should Pineiro not be ready to go on opening day.
#4 starter:
There’s valid evidence to expect Meche to be an above average starter next year. There’s valid evidence to expect him to join Scott Sanders in the Christmas-Tree-Hall-Of-Fame. There’s valid evidence to expect him to spend a significant part of 2005 on the disabled list. Hello crapshoot!
#5 starter:
Moyer’s done as an effective starting pitcher and is simply holding this place warm until someone not eligible for social security takes his job away from him. Hopefully, that’s Matt Riley, once Pineiro proves healthy.
Closer:
Guardado is not likely to be ready in 2005, but since he’s on the roster for $4.5 million and wants to pitch, you might as well try and let him. The M’s are out $9 million over the next two years anyways, so there’s little downside to hoping the rest-and-rehab plan pans out. Don’t ask me to hold my breath and bet on Guardado finishing the year healthy, though.
Setup:
The loss of Rafael Soriano was a crippling blow, and this team needs a right-handed arm that can provide solid relief work. Antonio Osuna has been one of the more underrated relievers in baseball for some time, but his injury history will probably keep him on one year contracts for the rest of his career. He’s a good risk.
Setup:
George Sherill pitched his way onto the opening day roster last year. He’s probably not going to be outstanding, but for $300,000, he’s a great fit as a late inning lefty reliever.
Relief:
Shigetoshi Hasegawa isn’t going anywhere with his $3 million contract, so you just hope that he can smoke-n-mirror his way to another decent enough campaign.
Relief:
J.J. Putz is overvalued by the club, but pitched well enough at times to earn an extended look. Again, for the league minimum, there’s very little risk.
Long Relief:
Scott Atchison actually pitched the best of the Tacoma relief corps but got little notice for it. Stuff isn’t good enough to be a great weapon out of the pen, but a career as the next Ryan Franklin is definitely within reach. A great swing guy for the league minimum.
The roster isn’t good enough to rebuild into a favorite to win the west in one offseason, so my theoretical moves are designed towards building a solid core to go forward with. Players on the wrong side of 30 are mostly avoided and holes that cannot be filled for the longterm and patched with one year contracts of semi-useful players. The emphasis is on acquiring talents who have potential to be performing at a level similar to their peak value in two to three years, which leads to the likes of Beltre, Drew, and Clement and away from Delgado, Sexson, and Varitek.
Realistically, the team listed above is probably going to win 80-85 games in 2005 with the chance to get into wild card contention with several positive breaks. It is designed to give opportunities to younger players at little cost, while allowing breakthrough minor league performers to move up without dumping a high priced veteran. With most expecting Felix Hernandez to be in the big leagues in late summer and Rafael Soriano potentially returning in 2006, the young talent would be in place to make a run in the latter half of the decade. By keeping the payroll flexibility in 2006 to add another impact player next offseason and building around players with a chance to sustain or improve their current performances, the M’s would set themselves up as a team on the rise. Honestly, it’s been about nine years since the team has been on its way up, and it is high time for this team to return to a place of hope.
Daisuke Matsuzaka whips MLB all-stars
Complete game, one-run outing. I haven’t found a box score yet, but it looks like he struck out six, walked no one, and gave up five hits. The ESPN article mentions that he’s still a candidate to come over this year, but doesn’t offer any quotes or evidence to back that up. I’ve read differently elsewhere, so I’m not sure exactly what’s going on.
Added by Dave: No one in an MLB front office believes he’s getting posted. He’s almost certainly staying in Japan.
Leone For Third
If you don’t read Jeff Sullivan’s blog, you’re missing out. And now, he’s escaped from blogger and has joined us in the WordPress revolution. Go check out his new digs.
Mariners to add grit
Also, grime. Dust is a secondary priority, but if possible the team is also looking to increase the amount of gravel and clay on the roster…
“Mariners want to add true grit”
“We have some guys who lay it on the line every game and aren’t affected when things get a little hairy in a tight situation,” general manager Bill Bavasi said, “but we need more of those guys. We are looking for players with good makeup between the lines and finding good, tough guys will be an important part of what we do.”
This is the kind of thing all GMs say all the time, along with standard lines about improving situational hitting, so I’m not particularly concerned.
That said, one of the reasons the 2004 team caught fire and fell over was because they did exactly this, attempting to bring in veterans like Aurilia and Spiezio who’d been parts of championship teams and could add that kind of veteran leadership and clubhouse presence.
It didn’t work out then, and if you look at the free agents who are reputed to be that same kind of player, you can see that it wouldn’t work this year either.
Baylor named hitting coach
The Mariners have named Don Baylor hitting coach.
Analysis: It doesn’t matter. Hitting coaches are, for the most part, irrelevant.
Richie Sexson
Since he’s the target of a host of uncited rumors, here’s the mini-article on Richie Sexson.
Richie Sexson is perhaps the sluggingest of the sluggers in baseball right now. He’s a huge man, 6’8 and about 240 pounds of long ball launching power. He came up through the Indians system in the late 90’s, blocked by Jim Thome at first base. The Tribe sent him to Milwaukee for a host of mediocre, injured relievers in one of John Hart’s worst moves. He blossomed into an elite hitter in his prime with the Brewers, peaking at a huge .272/.379/.548 season in 2003. He also established himself as one of the premier defensive first baseman in the game, and the combination of offense and defense he brought to the table in 2003 made him a legitimate MVP candidate in the non-Bonds category.
The Brewers couldn’t afford him, so they sent him to Arizona for seven dwarves, a lucky rabbits foot, a partridge, and a pear tree. He promptly proceeded to tear his labrum on April 29th and miss three weeks. He came back, aggrivated the injury two days later, and spent the rest of the season on the disabled list.
The positives; a year ago, he was considered one of the premier players in the game at his position. I guess make that “positive”.
The negatives; he’s coming off a serious injury that has a long history of wearing down a players abilities quickly and few positive comebacks. He turns 30 years old next month, already possesses old player skills, and has an abnormally large frame. Even a healthy Sexson would be expected to begin his decline shortly. Coming off a serious injury, there’s legitimate question as to whether he’ll ever regain previous form.
Very high risk, moderately high reward. He’s not a long term answer like Adrian Beltre would be. At best, you’re hoping for 3-5 years before looking for his replacement, and you’ll be paying for decline years at a peak rate. Sexson reportedly turned down a contract from Arizona that would have paid him $30 million over 3 years if he hit playing time incentives, instead asking that all three years of the contract be guaranteed.
Folks, if the Diamondbacks don’t want to guarantee three years to Sexson a year after giving up Curt Schilling and Lyle Overbay to get him and coming off a PR disaster that was that managerial hiring process, that should be a huge red light. Arizona wants Sexson back, and are likely to offer him arbitration, but the fact that they’re concerned enough with his health to take a year-by-year approach is a sign that they don’t know what they have, either.
If Richie Sexson wants three years of guaranteed money, look elsewhere. If he’s willing to take an incentive laden contract with team options for the second and third years, its worth investigating. Overall, he’s a bit too high of a risk for my tastes, as I don’t think this team can afford to sink any more of its payroll into players who won’t be contributing in 2005.
Dates to know
Here’s a quick primer on some key dates to know for thoses of you getting confused by poorly written articles floating around.
November 11th: Teams can begin officially talking specific contracts with free agents. Up until Friday, teams are technically only allowed to say things like “Hey, I’m interested”, though the enforcement of tampering in MLB is a total joke.
December 7th: Deadline for a team to offer a free agent arbitration. Any free agents signed before this date will automatically be offered arbitration and the team who loses them will be compensated by the signing team, depending on type of free agent and where the signing team’s pick lies in the draft. Free agents who are not offered arbitration by this date will bring no compensation to their original club, regardless of classification.
December 10th-13th: The annual winter meetings, where most of the big trades/free agent signings are officially announced. This is when a large majority of the impact moves take place, as well as the Rule 5 draft.
December 19th: Last day for free agent to accept arbitration from team. If a player declines the offer of arbitration, he cannot sign with his original team until May 1st. If a player accepts, he is under contract for the 2005 season and is off the free agent market.
December 20th: Last day to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players who are not free agents. A large group of players will be “non-tendered” on this day, leading to a whole host of new free agents flooding the market. Non-tendered players can re-sign with their original club.
GM Meetings
Since the General Manager meetings started yesterday, we’re going to see a proliferation of rumors starting to hit the ‘net. Any time you gather a group of executives, things will be discussed, most of which are just feelers and groundwork. I’d encourage you to take everything you read the next few days with large grains of salt. Historically, the GM meetings are a place of much talk, little action. If the M’s make a move this week, I’ll be surprised.
In other news, we’ll be putting out some final information on the second annual USSM pizza feed in the next day or two, including place, time, and cost. The date is set for December 18th, so if you’re interested in going, mark your calendars now. Keep your eye out for more information later tonight or tomorrow.
Interview with Bavasi
Larry Larue conducted an interview with our GM last week. It’s a pretty nondescript Q&A with blase answers for the most part. There was one question that made my skin crawl, however:
Q: Do the free-agent signings of last winter – Spiezio, (Rich) Aurilia, (Eddie) Guardado, (Raul) Ibanez – carry any lessons?
A: Nothing we didn’t know going in. On Aurilia, we were trying to get by until the kid (Jose Lopez) was ready. Spiezio? That should have worked. I don’t find what he did last season indicative of what he can or should do. Scott has issues he needs to take care of before we can see the real Spiezio. Guardado? I feel fine. If he’d stayed healthy, he’d have had his usual numbers. Ibanez did what we expected, but we can’t expect him to carry the club. The only one that was a real shock was Spiezio. Aurilia we rolled the dice with, and it didn’t work.
If the M’s were trying to “get by” until Lopez was ready, they’ve still failed, as he’s clearly not major league ready heading into the 2005 campaign. And, of course, there’s little explanation for why they couldn’t have simply kept Guillen, the cheaper, younger, better alternative.
Spiezio obviously underperformed even the most pessimistic expectation, but to say that the signing “should have worked” again shows a lack of ability to read market value. Even if he had performed at his previous levels, he would not have been worth the 3 year, $9 million contract the M’s signed him to.
The signings I wish LaRue would have asked about, though, were the extensions offered to Franklin, Hasegawa, and Winn. Those are contracts the M’s really should be learning from.
Rumoring and spending
Gammons, most prominently, is pushing the line that Richie Sexson is all but a done deal. He also mentioned that the Montreal Expos (Washington Unnamed Team?) may be shopping Vidro and Nick Johnson, to which I would say: man, I’d love to have Nick Johnson. Oh, sure, there’s the health issue, but what crazy potential, and he’d be a better defensive 1B than Ibanez or Bucky. Or you could DH him if you were really worried about health…
Anyway, to a larger point, beyond the long-term deals to younger, star free agents like Beltre/Beltran, should the Mariners spend on short-term, expensive fixes? What if they bring in Delgado and Glaus on two, three-year deals that are really rich?
I say go for it. As along as they don’t block the development path of legitimate, ready prospects, there’s no reason not to spend a ton of money. I like seeing the team win, and if the Mariners don’t spend that money they just pocket it (see: previous years) so why not spend it on random passer-by that make waiting for the team to rebuild more bearable?
And sometimes, if you’re smart about it, you can luck into the playoffs with a team like that.