oooof
DMZ · December 13, 2004 at 8:37 pm · Filed Under Mariners
Good to be back home. I don’t have any good rumors or anything.
It was weird to read the San Francisco Chronicle and read that the Giants may be pursuing a trade for Randy Winn (and that they’d been interested in him for over a year, which… what?). As much as I mock the Times, it was weird to read a paper where there were agenda pieces on the front page (like “the city may be backing off this bad idea, which is for the best anyway because we like this other idea…”) and containing a sports column of the “notes and stream-of-consciousness” written by someone who had lost their notes and was working against a severe upstream current.
Comments
49 Responses to “oooof”
Would they part with say…Jesse Foppert for Randy Winn?
I suppose SF might be interested in Winn because he’s a Bay Area guy (played hoops and baseball at Santa Clara). And remember that Brian Sabean once signed Marvin Bernard to a 3-year, $10M deal. Marvin Bernard!
I’m a Mariners fan living in the Bay Area and the San Franciso Comical is truly a horrible newspaper.
If I remember correctly, there were whispers that the Giants were offering the M’s Jerome Williams for ?Winn? a while back. I remember that it was Williams but I cannot recall if it was for Winn.
Jerome Williams for Winn. I think they would be overpaying. I would do that in an instant.
#3,
A horrible newspaper would be the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette. Their sports editor looks like the Keebler Elf for christ’s sake.
Oh, and don’t bother trying to look at their paper online, they charge you to look at it. The only newspaper that I know of that charges you to look at their paper online.
along with most of the English press.
But their baseball coverage sucks.
Colm
I suppose we could part with him for … Noah Lowry? Right….
Randy Winn was a major high school star in the SF area. His mom still bakes cookies for his team,(San Ramon High School, which is actually
located in Danville,CA).
He is a bay area star. It make’s perfect sense for the Giants. Nice hometown boy (sort of); All Star (Sort of!).
The rag Tri-City Herald also charges to see the online version. Most of their sports coverage is already two days old. Rumor has it that the Mariners have bagged Delgado along with Sexson. Just a rumor, believe it if you want, I do, cause it makes me happy.
Well, I grew up with the SF paper, and it is both good and bad. I really enjoy Bruce Jenkins column, even if I don’t always agree with it. He is a classic old-time sportwriter, and I enjoy reading his stuff, even though he is stats-delinquent. Glen Dickey has always been soft, and Ostler is a humor-only guy, with few original ideas outside of his jokes. Ray Ratto is a long argument waiting to happen.
You want to see the worst major metro daily sports page in the USA? Look no further than Portland, where The Oregonian sports page absolutely sucks beyond all intelligent debate.
. . . San Ramon High School. Lord, I even know where that is.
Hometown factor aside, Winn fits a ‘type’ that Sabean has acquired by one means or another throughout his tenure: fast, spray-hitting, top of the lineup outfielder. Bernard was the fourth or fifth example of this. Sabean wanted Winn at the Break this last year, and I just couldn’t believe that the Ms didn’t pull the trigger, although the word was that the comeback was peanuts, so. And that, “Melvin thought Randy was his best player” to paraphrase the actual headache inducing Bavasi quote to that effect which I, thankfully, can no longer remember word for word. The _only_ reason not to pull the trigger on Winn to SF for anything, including peanuts, is that it leaves the Ms with no theoretical leverage in signing a free agent CFer. Which in turn would cost them additional $$ about equal to what they presently owe Randy right now.
Sign-and-seal on Winn-‘Look Homeward, Angel,’ but keep him until the deal for Drew is done.
The Oregonian is definately worse than the Tri-City Herald. I use to live in southeastern Washington and was subjected to reading both of them. Sad times in my sports life. Although the Tri-City Herald is mostly AP articles, its atleast up to date. The only reason to buy the Oregonian is if you want to find out what happened two days ago.
My goodness 111 & 112 were long posts, but then again, what else is there to do at 2:33 in the morning? (p.s. why is the time zone stamp for this site so far off P.S.T.?)
Here’s my two cents (in case they weren’t clear enogh already)…
One. Will everyone please stomp complaining about Sexson?! He is that risk that we all have been wishing the M’s would take for the last five years… Granted, it may be coming a bit late (just imagine how a guy like that could have helped the ’01 team) –> btw; isn’t it crazy that we’re now four years removed from that glorious season and ten years removed from that amazing run in ’95?)
Two: like Dave keeps on saying – have patience!!! The M’s will get it done. I have little or no doubt that when all the dust settles we will have at least two (and realisticly three) of the following: Beltran, Beltre, Sexson, Delgado.
Patience my friends… it is a virtue.
yeah, sorry about those typos (I REALLY wish there was an edit feature on this blog)….
The M’s will get it done. I have little or no doubt that when all the dust settles we will have at least two (and realisticly three) of the following: Beltran, Beltre, Sexson, Delgado.
Somehow, the thought that if I just have patience, I will be rewarded by the Ms signing a pair of 30+-year-old 1st basemen with significant injury histories to large, long-term contracts fails to reassure.
Sexson and Beltre don’t have any business sharing space in the same sentence. They are totally different sorts of player from the perspective of handing out long-term contracts. And while Sexson might well be the risk you have been wanting the Ms to take for the last five years, please don’t presume to speak for me on that count. There is very little about Sexson that I like now or have liked historically.
To post#16: Facts are facts, but I am not sure where you are getting yours. 2 30+ firstbaggers? Sexson is 29. Significant injuries? Sexson is the only one that falls into this category. Last year was Delgado’s only blip as far as injuries in his career, and the injury wasn’t significant like Sexsons. Delgado has averaged 149 games over the past 9 years. Long term contracts…..yeah they are both going to get those.
Wow, to read some of the stuff I’ve read here the past few days is fascinating.
It appears that all you have to do to be a successful Mariners GM is to find multiple players who are:
a) Superstars
b) Have no injury risks
c) Are willing to sign a discount contract for the privilege of coming to Seattle.
Sounds like an easy job…where do I sign up?
#18, you’re dead on with your analysis. I think we lose perspective sometimes since we’re all huge M’s fans, but there are many other teams out there that are aggressively pursuing free agents as well. Not only that, but I really don’t see a lot of advantages that we offer a potential free agent versus a lot of other cities. That means that we pretty much will have to overpay for talent. The fact that Beltre is still even a possiblity at this point gives me hope. What concerns me is the fact the papers mention that we’ll get either him or Delgado if we sign Sexson. They write this as though Delgado and Beltre are equal to one another or something and it bothers me a bit.
A little bit OT here, but I also read in the PI this morning that the Marlins might be willing to part with AJ Burnett. I recall him being a power/high K per 9 kind of guy with some control problems. Would he be worth trading for possibly? I also seem to remember him throwing a no-hitter a few years back… thoughts?
for all those bemoaning subscription services to newspapers: http://www.bugmenot.com
The Mariner’s wouldnt trade Winn for a prospect or an unproven player. His value is way to high and too many teams are trying to get him…I think the only player the Giants are looking to trade is AJ Pierzynski and the Mariners have a project in Olivo and a decaying Dan Wilson. Pierzynski is almost the same kind of player that Kendall is and not being paid nearly as high. Winn and Pierzynski just happen to have the same salary (3.5m)so it looks like a good fit. The best, he is young, left handed bat and a proven All-Star.
Mustard, Seattle is the oldest team in baseball, and signing Sexson and Delgado doesn’t make them younger. Sexson is 30 in about a week, so you get no points for being very temporarily correct.
If they don’t get Beltre, I’ll consider the offseason a failure.
#18: Your list is fine, now. But USSM was pushing Beltre and Clement even last season based on their PECOTA projections, before they achieved star or superstar status.
Other than the rejection of vizquel last year, the Ms’ history with injuries and medical supervision is a string of negatives, so it isn’t surprising to me that so many posters feel apprehensive when they imagine Sexson in Seattle.
I have a question for Dave and Derek. If Sexson hadn’t been injured last year and had continued along his prior path, what would you estimate he would have gotten in this market? Obviously, what I’m really asking is, if the M’s pay him approximately $45 million over 4 years, what percentage discount does that represent because of his injury risk and that fact that he hasn’t played a game since the surgery.
Sonic,
Honestly, I don’t believe a 100 % healthy Richie Sexson is worth 4 years, $48 million. There’s no injury risk discount in play here. Best case scenario, where he hits .280/.360/.530, he’s probably worth $9-$10 million as long as he’s playing all-star defense at first base.
Thats what I thought but I figured I’d ask anyway. I laugh everytime I read one of these articles where the first few paragraphs make Sexson out to be one of the premier free agents and a huge power threat and then go on to detail his serious injury and the fact that he hasn’t played a game since reconstructive surgery. Some even add the fact that the Diamondbacks didn’t want him back because they believed there was a 10% chance the injury would recur. Its almost as if half the piece is written by one writer and the second half is written by another. You can’t be a premier free agent worthy of top dollar and be an injury risk with an unpredictable future at the same time. Its a contradiction in terms. The fact that the Orioles and the Mets are the teams we’re “fighting” with for Sexson should be a dead giveaway that the valuation here is way out of whack.
How much is Tim Hudson worth? Wouldn’t you rather throw 12 million at Hudson?
Question on contract insurance…
From what I understand, insurers are pushing back on long contracts by only covering the first three years of a deal. Thus, the magical three-year contract.
What happens if, purely for supposition’s sake, a certain right-handed slugging first basemen coming off a serious injury joins the Mariners?
1) Would they be able to get insurance?
2) If they do, and Joe Slugger goes down, how much (percentage) do the Mariners collect?
3) If they collect, how does the payout affect payroll?
In other words, is it possible that the Mariners would sign Mr. Slugger, pocket the insurance money when he (surprisingly, I might add) re-injures himself, but still cry poverty to the media (“well, we’d love to address the gaping holes on our roster, but we’re hamstrung by the unbelievably unpredictable injury to Sluggo…”)?
#17– FWIW, several papers are reporting that Delgado has decided that with the market on the upswing he doesn’t need to take that much of a paycut from his old salary, and so is now looking for something like 4/$15-17M
Seriously, people. Have you looked at Beltre’s stats? Sexson has much better career numbers. Until last year, his contract year, Beltre was mediocre at best. It’s like focusing on Boone in December ’01 and saying he’s end all. I’m not saying I like Sexson, either. I’ve never seen him play, but to imagine Beltre is so much better is pretty funny.
I wouldn’t touch any of those guys in the wake of Balco. Maybe Beltran because of his speed and defense, but none of the others. I’d keep Winn and Ibanez over any slugger today.
Have you heard anything about the rumours of Winn for Kaz Matsui?
JP I understand the apprehension a lot feel. I posted that just to give a little perspective. Over on a local forum I liked the Godfather reference (maybe it even started here…I don’t know; I’m new here): “Either your signature or your brains will be on that contract.” The M’s don’t really have that option….right?
The bottom line to me is that the M’s cannot afford to be too picky. They do have to shoot high, but they cannot be left empty-handed.
If they end up with Delgado/Sexson in 1B/LF, that’s not optimal, but it will still likely win you more games than Sexson/Winn. As an example. If we have to play Delgado at 1B as a prerequisite to signing him (and if we can’t have Beltre), I’d settle for that option.
Until today, my old hometown rag, the Worcester (MA) Telegram and Gazette, was the only newspaper site I knew of that charged. It’s not on bugmenot.com. either ( http://www.telegram.com ).
re 30
Yeah, folks have looked at Beltre’s stats. And age. And health history. Given that a botched appendectomy took out a year (and probably two) or production, those stats at worst portend a solidly productive 3rd baseman.
If we have Sexson, I don’t want Delgado–too many people at the same position. And I doubt he’d come here just to be DH. Go for other holes.
I’m still holding out hope for Renteria and Odalis Perez. I’m not crazy about moving Lopez to 3rd but it would be a workable solution IMO.
I am so excited — the M’s are about to have five — count ’em, five — first basemen on their roster. Sexson, Delgado, Jacobsen, Ibanez, and Spiezio. Yes, two of them played out of position last year, but do these guys have any clue about assembling a roster?
Yes, looking at Beltre’s there is one number of big importance – his age! Everything has to be taken in that context. Sexson is at an age whe he is likely to decline. He may not, but that is certainly the most probable. Plus add to that the factor that players of Sexson’s size (and skill mix – all power no speed) tend to not age as well. Beltre is at an age where he is likely to improve or level off, not decline.
Also, take a look at Beltre’s month-by-month splits last year. It wasn’t one big month or hot streak that distorted his stats. He was amazingly consistant all year long.
If Sexson does sign for 4 years and $40+ million, I will be very disappointed. Of course, ESPN gives the signing a bad rating, and given their judgement maybe that means its a good thing…
Delgado is going to decline as will Beltre, the difference in value between the two is the length of time between the decline.
Beltre is a good bet for 5+ years, Delgado for 5+ months. =)
Beltre’s his full-season numbers are mediocre because prior to this year he would put up a lousy first half with a blazing second half. So he’s almost definitely *not* juiced, unless he gets his steroids delivered in cans of spinach (“the green”?).
Pre-existing injuries are uninsurable. If the M’s wanted insurance on Sexson, they could pay a huge premium to get everything except his shoulder covered for up to three years. There’s no way they’ll even bother trying. After Albert Belle and Mo Vaughn, insurance companies decided they were changing the game, and getting insurance is now infinitely harder.
And, Simon, feel free to use the site search in upper right hand corner. Just put “Beltre” in the field, and read to your hearts content. We’ve broken down his numbers, his performance, and his projections many times in many different ways. Saying he’s had “one good year” isn’t true at all, and completely underestimates his abilities.
Dave and Derek: What role do you think insurance plays in a signing like Sexson? I would assume that the Mariners wouldn’t be taking on all of the injury risk (could they be that dumb?), but I haven’t heard anything about how much of the guaranteed $ they might be able to recover if it turns out he can’t play. Any thoughts?
Someone stated Seattle is the oldest baseball team. This certainly can’t still be true, right? Since the start of last year we’ve shed Olerud, Edgar, Aurilia, Sasaki, Myers, Hansen…
replaced with Leone/Dobbs, Reed, Lopez, Olivo and about 10 pitchers under 25…
Compare this team now to say … Boston. Schilling & Wakefield are approaching 40 and they don’t really have any young players…maybe Arroyo who is 28 or 29 now. I can’t think of anyone younger, unless Pokey Reese, but even he has to be approaching 30.
#41: They cannot insure a pre-exisint injury……ie, the M’s cannont insure Sexson’s shoulder injury. If Sexson is signed to a deal and he has a re-occurance of his shoulder injury then the M’s are stuck with the balance of the contract….they get no insurance benefit.
Now they may be able to get a three year policy for a different injury, say Sexson signs then breaks his wrist during the season….they would be covered by a new injury…..but as far as coverage percentages, cost of policy or deductable amounts…..I don’t have a clue.
Another question for Dave or Derek: Does the Sexson contract equate to a larger per-season salary than that of Ichiro? I find it hard to believe they would pay another player more than him. After all, Ichiro is the sacred (cash) cow in this organization and they would not want to ‘disrespect’ him in any way. But if the team is prepared to offer other players larger contracts than him, then perhaps they are starting to change their philosophy after all.
After reading about how the Mets threw away their future to sign Pedro Martinez, who, like Sexson, has a shoulder problem (labrum tear) that will almost certainly take him out at some point over those guaranteed four years … it’s almost time to declare the market too insane to even bother with. Between Pedro and Glaus, I wonder if ANYBODY is going to get reasonable value out of a free-agent signing anymore. I know the Mariners have to sign SOMEBODY or get killed by their fans (and us) … but more and more I wish they’d just do it and go home and sit out the rest of the insanity.
FOUR guaranteed years at FIFTY MILLION for a pitcher whose torn labrum has NO chance of holding up … Jesus wept.
That may be the worst contract ever, including Mo Vaughn … oh, and the last one signed by Richie Sexson.
Richie Sexson is looking more and more like the next Gorman Thomas. Wo- ha haaa. Its time for the Mariners to pursue a paradigm shift in their philosophy because there aint no way they can compete in the free agent market and at these prices I am not sure why they would want to anyway. Wo ha-haaaaa
Back to the original topic. I also am a Mariners fan living in the Bay Area, and I agree, the Chronicle does suck. For decent reading we have to turn to the Guardian (which unfortunately has no sports section and only covers sports when truly astonishing things happen, like the Cal football team finishing 10-1… only to get snubbed by the voters, but that’s another rant entirely…).
The worst of the bunch, I think, is Ray Ratto. He chooses interesting topics, so I’m often tempted to read his column. But it is always an excersize in frustration. The dude could not finish a thought if his life depended on it. He writes as if he gets a bonus for each extravagant analogy over 2 that he crams into each sentace. He uses the word “headsplitting” so often that by the end of the column you swear that your head was just split. His analogies are so far-fetched that you can go for paragraphs without any mention of sports at all. I don’t understand where he gets his self-righteous attitude, but I find it incredibly annoying.
Speaking of self-righteous Bay Area sports media figures, the baseball announcers all think they are the cream of the crop. It’s pretty funny. Bill King, Ray Fosse, and Ken Korach team up to provide you with… a lot of silence during A’s games. They’ve got none of the personality that Dave Niehaus brings. But they sure think they are great. And Jon Miller certainly has a smooth voice, and is quick to provide relevant information, but I could do without the smugness. His tone just oozes the feeling that “the Giants are the class franchise in the league and all other teams should look to them as a model of how a team should be run”.
On a side note… every time Jon Miller says Adrian Beltre’s name, he says Beltré. I never hear anyone else pronounce it that way. Is it Beltre (accent on the Belt) or Beltré (accent on the ey)?
Hans, I have even heard him called Andre Beltran so who knows how his name is pronounced. Wo- ha-haaaaa
#42. I don’t have the data on oldest teams, but the Mariners were in the top 5 at the start of last year, but not first. I think Boston and the Yankees were the oldest teams. As you noted, the Mariners got younger as the year went on.
Then again, so what? The correlation with winning and having older players is positive; I think 6 of 8 playoff teams were in the top 10 in age and only one contender was in the bottom 1/3 of the league.