Sexon AND Delgado, yay!
Jim Street’s latest at MLB.com has it happening. And in case you thought he might get through it without saying something implausible:
Think about that. Sexson and Delgado in the middle of Seattle’s lineup. All of a sudden, a team that hit the fewest home runs and scored the fewest runs in the American League last season looks like a Murderer’s Row.
A historically great offense, wow! Like the Yankees of the 30s!
Best-case Recreation of Best Previous Year Jim Street Memorial Mariners Murderer Row:
Richie Sexson (2003) : .272/.379/.548
Raul Ibanez (2002): .294/.346/.537
Carlos Delgado (2000): .344/.470/.664
Bret Boone (?)(2001): .331/.372/.578
Wow, that suuuure is powerful. Except that relative to the rest of baseball, the best of those isn’t close to Ruth’s 1927 season, which makes Boone’s 2001 look like Boone must have been hitting with a wet noodel. Or Gehrig’s season, which was equally good.
Even Earle Combs and Bob Meusel, who get short shrift, beat the best of the M’s. Combs put up a line in 1927 where, relative to the league, he was as good as the career years of *any* of the M’s players. Meusel was as good in 1927 as Ibanez had ever been.
The only way I can come close to expressing this in modern terms: the 1927 Yankees had two Barry Bonds performances backed by Albert Pujols and David Ortiz.
And while we can argue a little about what our metrics for relative comparison is, no matter what you choose, it totally neglects the issues of injury, effectiveness, and how slim the chances that all four of those guys would put up career lines.
Adding Sexson and Delgado at their best wouldn’t make a Murderer’s Row. Next season’s lineup would be more like a snowball fighter’s reading club.
Comments
76 Responses to “Sexon AND Delgado, yay!”
Good point, Brian in #44 — this contract will shackle the M’s for 4 years. But it’s not like there’s any other bats becoming available after next season, nor in 2007. Piazza? B. Giles? I’d rather have Sexson, even at 90%, in some ways…
Sexon at 90% would still be a good bat, but with his shoulder injury, I fear its not a question of 100% or 90%, but 90% or 0%.
The problem is that if you take Sexson at 90%, you also must account for the Safeco effect when projecting his productivity. Although Dodger Stadium cuts down scoring, it’s not a terrible park for home runs (I don’t have the numbers handy), so as awful as Green’s power outage has been since his shoulder injury — second half last year notwithstanding — Sexson might be even worse in Safeco, assuming his injury has similar effects. I’m not saying his injury is perfectly comparable, and I don’t think anyone knows the answer to that question for sure. $12 million for a .265/.360 with 25-30 homers from a first baseman is unbelievably steep.
#49: There have been conflicting reports of an offer made by the M’s to Beltre. Supposedly the M’s have made offers to all three players, but we all know there’s no way in hell they sign all three, so clearly some of those offers aren’t firm, or they have contingencies in them regarding other players. I’m far from convinced that the M’s won’t be pulling other offers off the table if Sexson signs. I know, I know, “patience”, but mine is wearing thin as I continue to read the same sort of disturbing reports I saw last off-season, none of which fill me with confidence. The fact that a move makes no sense whatsoever doesn’t mean it isn’t plausible. Trading away Carlos Guillen made no sense whatsoever, signing Spezio to a 3-year deal made no sense. So just because the M’s are working with a bigger budget doesn’t mean they might not just blow it that much worse with something as crazy as Sexson and Delgado. I sure hope it’s not true, but I’m not going to write it off just because it’s stupid. I won’t be able to do that until the M’s FO shows me that they’re smart enough to abvoid dumb moves, and that hasn’t happened yet.
Does anyone know what the M’s total committed salaries for 2004 were just prior to the FA signing period last winter? As horrifying as the idea of paying Delgado and Sexson more per year than what Tejada and Vlad got is, I think the M’s had a total committed salary number much higher at this time last year than they do now. Even though they would have been relative bargains, signing Tejada and Vlad never would have happened because it would have pushed them way over “budget”.
This is crazy talk about Sexson. This team is not one good player away, it isn’t even two good players away. So to invest $48 million or $50 million or whatever the actual offer is, in someone who is 30 years old and had a major injury that in other players has been a permanent debilitating injury is stupid. Plus to top it off, he’s right handed. I just want to know what to do when the team you root for has piss-poor management and seems destined to losing seasons until the management is gone. Because I don’t want them to lose so I’m not going to root for failure simply so Bavasi and company will go, so what do you do?
Don’t leave out Willie Horton, the original M’s basher!
Not a big deal but Richie Zisk was not a “one-dimensional bopper” like Steve Balboni. His first year with Seattle — 1981 — he was 32 years old and posted an OPS+ of 140 (311/366/485). Yes, he was one-dimensional in that he was a DH only because of his 2 terrible knees. But he was a pretty productive hitter and earlier in his career, before his knees went, he was a very good player — a solid hitter and at least an average outfielder.
OK, you can go back to your discussion now.
James, you bring up a good, albeit terrifying, possibility. What if Bavasi actually is Woody Woodward in disguise? I’m just waiting for him to pull off the mask, a la Mission Impossible, and cackle, “I’m backkkkkk!” (HA! Two movie references in one post!)
#54: There have been conflicting reports regarding the M’s and every free agent they have been reported to be after.
Do the M’s have contingencies built into their offers to the players they’ve sent offers to? Probably, any smart organization would have those things included when they have 4-5 offers pending with agents at one time……however the logical assumption would be the offers to Sexson and Delgado are probably contingent on one or the other and the offer to Beltre is completely separate.
Everyone will believe what they chose to believe during these times of rampant rumors and false reports and yes the M’s haven’t done anything in their history of free agent signings to give anyone much hope, however these aren’t your Grandpa’s M’s.
Richie is from the area.
Richie is tall so he will have club house presence and leadership.
Richie has a catchy name, just like Bucky, Boonie, Danny, Willie…
Media will downplay the risk. M’s will pay whatever he asks. It is done deal.
#55: No question the M’s couldn’t have fit Tejada and Guerrero into their budget last year. But considering the value of those players, perhaps their budget was just a bit too short-sighted. I said so at the time, if ever there was a time to exceed the budget by just a bit (and we’re only talking a couple million more for Guerrero over Ibanez + Spezio + Winn), and go with a star-and-scrubs solution, it was last Winter with Vlad available for a reasonable amount, and several large contracts coming off the books the next year. In fact, after Sasaki’s money came off the table, they’d have been on or under budget.
The main point is that the M’s are now likely to overpay a marginal star with high risk this season because they failed to capitalize on a good buyer’s market a year ago. If they can’t sign Beltre or Beltran, or maybe Drew, I’d honestly prefer they just took a pass and preserved budget room for a time when it could be put to better use. The M’s aren’t going anywhere in 2005 anyway, so why cripple the 2006-2008 teams by overpaying a past-prime-injury-prone second-tier star?
#61 – Richie? how about Sexy.
If the sox were going to trade manny and a team was willing to take on the contract without any extra money, would the redsox toss in 1 or 2 top prospects?
I had an idea floating around my head during my final today.
“The main point is that the M’s are now likely to overpay a marginal star with high risk this season because they failed to capitalize on a good buyer’s market a year ago. If they can’t sign Beltre or Beltran, or maybe Drew, I’d honestly prefer they just took a pass and preserved budget room for a time when it could be put to better use. The M’s aren’t going anywhere in 2005 anyway, so why cripple the 2006-2008 teams by overpaying a past-prime-injury-prone second-tier star?”
WORD! WORD! WORD!
Dave – We can disagree, but what I said wasn’t baseless:
1) “If Sexson’s injury is relatively better than Shawn Green’s, as everyone seems to agree on”
This is the consensus from everyone I’ve read who’s compared the two injuries. I have looked for the evidence, and found nothing conflicting, so how you can blame me for using “everyone” to mean “everyone I’ve read” makes no sense, unless you’re expecting omniscience on the part of your posters.
“I’m pretty sure everyone doesn’t agree on that, actually.”
Not even my point. More amazingly, after calling me ignorant for looking for the evidence and citing what I found, you refute it with…assumptive speculation. That’s dirty pool.
2) “A) his power won’t be that diminished (Green’s problem is a hitch in his swing, not a loss of strength)
I hate comments like this, honestly. You have no idea if this is true, but state it like an absolute fact.”
No, it’s not fact, but it is the opinion of a friend of mine who’s front office with an AL team, and a former player/scout/agent and has attended every Dodger home game in the last 10 years. Unless you’re awaiting the results of a randomized clinical trial studying a sample of 500 Shawn Green shoulders this will always be a matter of opinion, anyways, not fact.
3) “B) his recovery time will be much shorter (Green only rounded back into form in the second half last year, almost 12 mos. after the surgery + 3-4 months of playing on the injury)
More speculation.”
OK, I should have said “may” instead of “will,” but the evidence for this is pretty solid. Green copped to playing on his injury for 3-4 months 2 seasons ago, and his hitting was greatly improved after the ASB last season. A 12-month recovery window for surgeries of this type is also pretty common. Green also altered his swing to adjust for the injury that year (he hit few home runs but a ton of doubles), and it took him some time to readjust after the surgery.
4) “and still managed to hit 28 HR in Dodger stadium.
Green hit .266/.352/.459 last year. Using his home run total to attempt to cover up the fact that he took about a 50 percent cut in productivity is just spin.”
My point was that Green was a much better hitter in the second half, so it was about half-season splits, not his full-season production. Come on and at least respond to the points I’m actually making.
On that note:
Green in April May June:
.382 .487 .869
.293 .350 .643
.346 .385 .731
Green in July August September (Oct excluded for only 8 games)
.356 .533 .889
.373 .535 .908
.374 .485 .859
So are you trying to argue First Half Shawn is the same as Second Half Shawn? Be my guest.
5) “Since Reed hits better (than Winn)…
Randy Winn hit .286/.346/.427 in Safeco Field against major league pitching. He hit .314/.374/.469 on the road. Reed hit .288/.363/.437 in Triple-A last year.
There’s no way Jeremy Reed is a better hitter than Randy Winn right now. Maybe in 2-3 years. But not next year.”
I see your point, but you’re replying to a speculative point with what looks like more speculation. Reed five years ago wasn’t as good a hitter as Winn, either, but that’s not the point. Since this clearly a dispute that can’t be resolved with numbers alone, how about we settle this like gentlemen: I’ll wager Reed hits better than Winn next year, and you’re welcome to join in on Winn’s behalf. Deal?
Yes, I agree. Sexson at four years and $50 million is stupid. BUT Delgado at $17 million per for three years is stupid ALSO.
This is the consensus from everyone I’ve read who’s compared the two injuries. I have looked for the evidence, and found nothing conflicting, so how you can blame me for using “everyone†to mean “everyone I’ve read†makes no sense, unless you’re expecting omniscience on the part of your posters.
To me, five seperate opinions, each lacking the knowledge to reach a conclusion, isn’t a consensus. It’s combined ignorance. My point all along was that Sexson’s shoulder is a giant unknown. I’m not arguing that its good or bad; I’m saying the only people who have any kind of insight are the Arizona team doctors. The same ones who decided that Troy Glaus was a better way to spend their money.
No, it’s not fact, but it is the opinion of a friend of mine who’s front office with an AL team, and a former player/scout/agent and has attended every Dodger home game in the last 10 years. Unless you’re awaiting the results of a randomized clinical trial studying a sample of 500 Shawn Green shoulders this will always be a matter of opinion, anyways, not fact.
I’m not ruling it out as a possibility. I will, say, however, that if he had a noticable hitch in his swing that could have been corrected without it being an injury problem, I’m almost certain the Dodgers would have noticed and corrected it. You cannot ignore the fact that this potential hitch was related to the shoulder problem, that the Dodgers knew about it, and that they didn’t correct it because it was directly related to his injury.
So are you trying to argue First Half Shawn is the same as Second Half Shawn? Be my guest.
No. I’m arguing that post-injury Shawn has been far less effective than pre-injury Shawn. Nothing more, nothing less.
I see your point, but you’re replying to a speculative point with what looks like more speculation. Reed five years ago wasn’t as good a hitter as Winn, either, but that’s not the point. Since this clearly a dispute that can’t be resolved with numbers alone, how about we settle this like gentlemen: I’ll wager Reed hits better than Winn next year, and you’re welcome to join in on Winn’s behalf. Deal?.
Predictions aren’t analysis. Winn could hit .380 next year, but that doesn’t mean I knew it was coming. It’s pretty clear that as of the end of the season, Randy Winn was a better hitter than Jeremy Reed. Historical trends tell us that this will likely continue to be true next year. If you’ve got some kind of valid reason for why you feel this case is an exception, feel free to throw it out there. I’d rather debate logical positions than place wagers.
After months of reading logical creative posts here and M’s paying no attention to public opinion have figured their strategy..
M’s do not have to have best hitters with Don Baylor as hitting coach M’s need big targets to get hit
Can’t have Sexson checking swings tearing shoulder. Imagine Baylor when 200 hitters bail on change-ups.
Plus big bodies will make our pitchers better as they will not fear to pitch inside with those enforcers coming out of the dugout. Alrigt game on.
Jones seems to be just coasting on his fat contract. He is still 27, but he should be improving, not declining, heading into his supposed prime years. Not the risk we should be taking. but then, neither is sexson.
I sure as hell like the risk of a 27 year old CF on pace for 500 home runs in his mid-30’s at $13.5 million (with no injury history, BTW) better than of a 30 or 32 year old 1B at close to that WITH an injury history.
Granted, I’d sign Beltre first, and think REAL hard about signing Beltran first given the choices, and I certainly wouldn’t lock into Jones- but if Jones is available, Christ, why WOULDN’T you consider him considering the prices on the FA market this year? What do you think’s more likely, Jones putting up a .275/30/100 line in 2008 at age 31, or Delgado performing well at age 36?
Dave RE Post #68 What is your friend in front office think the chances of M’s signing Beltre are? Thanks
Dave – Re:68, you’re right about predictions. Solid analysis reaches a conclusion based on real evidence. What ever happens after that can’t be used to judge the analysis.
It’s like looking at trades based on future performance. You have to judge each decision based on the information available at the time.
The higher the prices go on these guys, the more I say we should just focus on Beltre and fill in after we sign him…whenever that may be.
I don’t want Delgado at $15 million per season, but he’s not going to get that. Our offer of $11 million seems to be tops, and he’s not gonna get a nearly %40 increase over that offer, especially in light of us potentially signing Sexson. Beltre at $12 million per season is a great deal in this silly offseason, and we should try to make it happen.
WE ARE ALL FOOLS IF WE BELIEVE VICEGRIPHEAD BAVASAI IS TELLING US THE TRUTH.THE WORD ON THE STREET IN ANAHEIM IS HIS DADDY BUZZIE CALLED IN A FAVOR WITH ARMSTRONG TO GET THIS BUFFON THE JOB HE HAS DONE VERY LITTLE OF NOTHING YES THE GARCIA DEAL LOOKS TO BE OK OLIVO ???/REED A GOOD 2 WEEKS AND MORSE SUSPENDED FOR ROIDS TWICE .OK WINN WAS AVG FRANKLIN 2 YEARS HORRIBLE SPIEZIO BEYOND BAD IBANNNEZ MEDIOCRE AT BEST FOR THAT MONEY WINNS DEFENSE CRAP!!!!I SAW HIS NEW ASSISTANT BOLES ON A INTERVIEW FROM ANAHIEM I THINK THIS GUY HAS TERRETS AND I DONT MEEN THAT RUDELY BUT SADELY.I wish the mariners good luck but leadership starts at the top and armstrong howie and vicegriphead bavasai must go before this team becomes a winner!!!!!IM OUT MERRYXMAS TOO YOUALL
I’ve never posted before but #74… wow…
Good points, and I’d rather discuss facts as well. Glad we agree on that. I wasn’t trying to just spray uninformed opinions, just speculating and tieing together some information I’d picked up from a bunch of different sources, some factual, some anecdotal.
As for Green’s hitch, my friend didn’t bring it to the Dodgers attention until shortly before the All-Star break, but I also have no idea if they believed it, if they spoke to Green about it and tried to get him to adjust to it, or if Green heeded their advice. Green has kind of a reputation for doing what he thinks is best in spite of the advice of management anyways–playing on the injury being one example–the team did *not* want him doing that, and was understandably not thrilled when they found out. So it’s definitely a black box. My friend who noticed the hitch said he didn’t think Green had eliminated it even in the second half last season, so maybe he just felt stronger (which is also maybe not bad news for Sexson) or maybe something else entirely happened.
Do you know of any other similar injuries and how well hitters came back from them? An increased frame of reference would definitely help, but I haven’t anyone look at the examples of any other players.