Wade Miller
I mentioned this as a possibility at the feed on Saturday, and now it is reality; the Astros have non-tendered Wade Miller. He now gets the official Dave endorsement as the way to fill out the roster. He missed about half of 2004 with a rotator cuff injury and a frayed labrum, but received a clean bill of health from Lewis Yocum earlier this month. He will start throwing next month and reportedly should be ready for spring training.
The team has depth in the starting rotation and can afford to take a risk on a high upside guy like Miller. He’s very similar to Matt Clement, who we stumped for earlier in the offseason; good power stuff, mediocre command, looks to have upside beyond his previous performance, which was already pretty good.
Forget Odalis Perez or Kevin Millwood. If you can get Wade Miller for something like 1 year, $5 million with some incentives, it could be a terrific deal.
Comments
14 Responses to “Wade Miller”
Wade Miller would be better than Perez or Millwood. I think he’s better than Clement too. If the Braves pick him up, forget about it. Those flashes of brilliance he’s showed in spurts will simply be the norm with Leo Mazzone..
w00t. That would rock.
Wade Miller… Sounds good to me. I didn’t know he was injured though.
OT: Angels just sighned Orlando Cabrera
I’d like the Mariners to take a look at Millwood, at least. I saw his DIPS compared to a few other FA pitchers, and even though he looked rough last year, I was surprised at how good it was (can’t find it now, sorry). I’d be happy with Odalis and/or Miller, though. In other non-tender news, Eckstein is available. I’m not a big fan, but if he could be had cheaply, he’d make a nice stop gap while Lopez plays in Tacoma.
As a Houston native, I’ve been hearing for a while that there was a good chance Miller wouldn’t be brought back. However, I’m surprised that the Astros couldn’t get anything for him. He’d likely be looking at about $5 million in arbitration, and I’m expecting he’ll get more than that on the market.
Angels supposedly got the good Carrera for $32 million and 4 years.
Isn’t Millwood also supposedly an “East Coast guy”?
$8 million/year is way too much for O-Cab.
This is only distantly related, but if someone could convince Scott Schoeneweis that he’s a bad starter and that his extraordinary success against lefties (.222/.286/.302) would turn him into a millionnaire situational reliever, then I’d have some interest.
I like it, if only because Miller was the #2 starter for the M’s in my MVP baseball season. Seriously, from a talent standpoint I would prefer that the M’s sign Perez, but if Miller would really come that cheap, I’d take a long look at him.
Re #9: I’m not tracking with you. From a health standpoint, sure, Perez is a better risk, but from a talent standpoint, Miller has ace-level talent, and Perez doesn’t. Given that arm problems (and perhaps other things) have kept Miller from matching potential with performance, there are certainly good reasons to prefer Perez; for my part, though, if Miller would come significantly cheaper (which he should), I’d rather see him wearing the compass rose.
This has me wondering if perhaps this is the non-tender Bavasi was waiting for . . .
Look, we ain’t winning it in ’05, so this is the PERFECT GUY to take a chance on. Wade Miller would give us THREE potential aces in Pineiro, Meche, Miller. Out of a group like that, you gotta put your money down that one will bust out and be huge. I’d sign him to a Moyer-type deal, guaranteed first year, and then one or two more years of low salary with bonuses for making X+ starts.
Bavasi has really impressed me so far during his tenure. The Freddy trade still tickles me, and while Sexson isn’t my ideal 1B, Beltre more than made up for it. I’m guessing that Bavasi is gonna look long and hard at Miller.
I made a grand on fantasy baseball last year by taking chances on “injured” guys. It’s ridiculous how scared GM’s are of formerly injured players. I think one of the smartest things I read in Moneyball was the explanation of moves like the sac bunt: It’s clearly not the best move, but it makes it so the manager doesn’t look like he made a stupid move. If he has Eckstein swing away and he strikes out, everyone says he should have bunted. The same thing might be true with injured players: you should probably pay a ton of money for Vlad or Wade Miller or JD Drew, but if their back acts up and he can’t play, you look like the biggest rube of all time.
Anyway, Will Carroll has got to be the smartest writer in baseball injuries, but I always look at his health reports. He’s often very accurate after injuries are detected, but it seems almost impossible, even for him, to detect who will be injured in the future. Sure, guys like Griffey (or any of the Reds outfield for that matter) are easy to bet on, but take a look at the Seattle Mariners 2004 Health Report (premium)
None of the guys with “red” or “yellow” warnings had major injuries in 2004, including guys like Meche, Moyer, Garcia, or Franklin. But guys with huge injuries like Pineiro and Guardado got clean bills of health. Looking back at other health reports and you get the same trend. I’m not saying Carroll isn’t doing the best job possible, it’s just that injuries seem to be mostly random, or at least unpredictable from our vantage.
In short, I say whoever signs Miller for a bargain price is a huge offseason winner. If he makes $5mil or less he’s probably the biggest bargain of the offseason. A healthy Miller would probably be the best pitcher available (including Hudson and Mulder, possibly).
I’m all for signing Miller. We’re not winning it all next year, so roll the dice.