Wade Miller to Boston
JMB · December 22, 2004 at 3:23 pm · Filed Under Mariners
So much for that — Miller signed a one-year deal with the Red Sox worth up to $4.5M. The base salary is only $1.5M, with the rest in incentives. Miller’s agent didn’t list the Mariners as one of the club’s interested in his client’s services.
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38 Responses to “Wade Miller to Boston”
Well, schucks. But hey, I still think that Perez is our best option at SP this offseason. Here’s to hope:)
With Miller, Clement, and Schilling, things look good for Boston next year.
Nice move by Theo.
To comment on the Yankees-Red Sox war, it is amazing that a club as rich as the Red Sox can still find relative bargains, unlike the Yankees. Clement, Wells, and Miller are more reasonably priced and probably better than Pavano and Wright. (I will not include Unit at the moment.) The Yankees have enough money to compensate for their mistakes, but they sure seem to make a lot of them.
It’s beginning to look a lot like Theo’s the best of the saber-GM’s. Of course, he’s got the best payroll to work with also, but he seems to be making some good choices (Clement, Miller, Pedro, Schilling), and some others that turn out to be lucky (Nomar, A-Rod).
I’ll still take Beane, but Theo has surpassed DePo as my #2.
as Rotoworld put it before the signing: “The Blue Jays, Rangers and Reds are among the teams that have expressed interest in Wade Miller, who was non-tendered Monday. And there’s probably at least another half dozen teams that have succeeded in keeping their interest quiet so far.”
That is amazing that they only had to give him a base of $1.5 million. I can’t believe another team didn’t beat that offer. Look at the numbers he has put up – and with Minute Maid as his home ballpark. There must be more concern about his shoulder than I had origionally heard. I don’t have the numbers in fron of me, but I wonder what his 3 or 4 year tailing VORP numbers are, and how they compare to a couple other free agents with shoulder problems…
#7-another team *may* have beat that number, but he may have wanted Boston….
I also think Perez is ou best bet, for some reason I am leary of Miller & his shoulder. If it is sound though, what a nice pickup for the Sox. I have been quite impressed with Theo, Depo not so much.
The year of the good short-term deals continues. Wells, Miller, Garciaparra, Woody Williams, Hidalgo… Those 5 short-term deals + Beltre are the 6 best deals this year so far.
DePo has had a very perplexing offseason. Theo, on the other hand, has been really impressive in retooling that team for a title defense. Other than perhaps overpaying for Renteria (which is the type of thing a high-revenue club can afford to do), his moves have been dynamite. Miller could be a masterstroke at that price, IMO.
Yep, Theo is the man. DePo is doing alright…so far. It was a mistake to let us take Beltre for what we did, but it’s still nice to see him make the moves he’s made in LA so far, Drew is a good pickup and Kent is a great one (in this market).
I agree that it’s now currently Beane, Theo, whoever after that.
Re: #11, I agree except for David Wells. Props to Theo Epstein, that is THE best signing so far of the offseason. Seems like the Yankees know how to overpay for big names and not much else.
I don’t know I think Wells rounds out that rotation pretty well. He’s not being counted on to be the #1 starter (or even a 2 or 3) as a 4 or a 5 starter I think Wells could probe to be one of the better ones in the league (probably overpaid for his age). As long as he doesn’t tank, he should pay off.
Theo, Billy, DePo, and JP. Despite their similarities, they’re starting to appear quite the diverse group.
I still think the worst move by a saber-GM this off-season was the Koskie contract.
#13 yes, Beane, Theo, whoever…………..dare I dream……………dare I hope………….that in a year or two we will put Son of Buzzy in that group?
Someone ought to organize a system of wagering on these deals. Put them in order, best to worst, and see how you do compared to your peers, as determined by $spent/WARP/year (or some better metric)
Dam.
(spelling mistake intended)
Now it’s onto Perez, with Millwood as a possible plan B?
#17 That’s probably wishful thinking, but I’m willing to ride that wave if it’s coming to shore;)
Seriously, I think Bavasi is as close as you can come to the hybrid of the Saber-GM and the old-skool guys. That said, he’s not in the upper echelon of GMs. Track records are what make a good GM, and I’ve never been a big fan of the “Well, they won the year ‘after’ he left”. Even though I think most of the time it isn’t intended to sound like a back-handed remark, it usually comes off as one to me.
Reports are that Theo jumped immediately on Miller, flew him out to meet the front office and offered a $1.5 million guarentee with another possible $3 million in incentives. Theo is a GM who truly grasps not only the stats side of the equation but the personal side also. He makes the guys he wants feel really good about the team.
OT a bit: since we’re debating saber-GMs, Beltre, etc., maybe one of the trio that runs the site could post a comment on the Randy deal like the comment on the A’s a few days ago. I’m intrigued by the seeming (media) consensus that it would be bad for the Dodgers. In the context of the Drew signing, it looks like the question is (w/trade) Drew + Vazquez + two good prospects for $23 million vs. (w/o trade) Green + Penny + Ishii for $26 million. I’d rather have the first package than the second, unless you think something’s wrong with Vazquez. Am I crazy?
Miller doesn’t concern me. His arm is due to fall off at any moment. I think if you combined Sexson, JD Drew & Nomar you’d have someone more sound than Miller.
Re: 22
I heard they’d still be paying Ishii despite trading him…so that would change things a little bit.
“I don’t know I think Wells rounds out that rotation pretty well.”
Wells could round out any rotation.
Any player who just got non-tendered would probably feel pretty damn good about getting attention from the defending World Series champions. That’s the unquantifiable capital of winning, and it gets spent in situations exactly like this one.
Re: 15. A player can’t be “overpaid for his age.” He can be overpaid relative to the risk. Older players are riskier, yes, so they (in common saber wisdom) aren’t worth as much, but age is just one factor.
Consider, you’ve got two pitchers. One has been playing the game for 18 years, is always in top health, has never had a major injury, and even though his skills have declined, he still puts up respectable numbers. The second has a fireball for an arm, is just 26, but in four years of playing, he’s missed a third of his games, due to various maladies. Which one is the better product against risk? The first, really.
Wells’ contract is incentive-laden. It’s not huge, and a lot of the money he could make is contingent upon him a) staying healthy and b) playing well. If he manages to meet all the incentives on his contract (thereby earning $8 million a year), I can’t see how anyone would be unhappy with it, regardless of his age.
#24 — I’ve factored that into the salaries. I’ve got Green at 16, Drew at 11, Vazquez at 9, Ishii at 5, and Penny at 5 (3.75 last year, arb-eligible). Drew + Vazquez would be just $20 million, but reportedly LA would be on the hook for $3 million of Ishii’s salary, so I made it $23 million for the total.
Had the M’s got Miller on top of Sexson I think they would have also had to budget a few million to expand the clubhouse area at safeco for the emergency shoulder surgery suite, and also flying the docs around with the team. How much risk do you want to take on in one offseason? That said, the way Boston structured the contract it doesn’t look like they have much monetary risk involved. There is still the issue of what happens if Miller goes down in May, say, or after the trading deadline, or in the first round of the playoffs. You have to also budget for some kind of backup plan.
Hopefully the press mumblings abour Perez are accurate, and Bavasi is still focused on getting him. And doing more for the bullpen than just re-signing that V guy.
Forgive my love for all pitching upside down, but whither Byung-Hyun Kim?
What #27 said. Lots of people like to turn their noses up at Wells’ contract with the Sox, but, guys, seriously, pull the man’s lines up. He’s a bloody rock. Wells and the sun in the east. Well, not quite, but, no, really, there’s not a single reason to think that it will all end in tears.
Ok, actually, there is a reason to think it’ll all end in tears. Wells is a fly ball pitcher with a lifetime ERA in Fenway around 5.00. This is the only part that gives me pause. But it’s not like they’re paying him a ton, and the Sox have a ton of starting pitching depth at low cost with the Miller signing.
Wells has had an era in the 2’s in Fenway Park over his last 35 innings there. The bad career ERA in Fenway is a result of his days with the Jays and Orioles.
And Fenway’s actually a pretty good park for a flyball pitcher. It’s about even for promoting or preventing homers by righties and it historically decreases homers by lefties by 25%.
And Theo’s not a pure saber GM. One of his advisers is Bill James but another is Bill Lajoie, the GM of the Tigers in the 1980’s. In a recent interview on a radio station in Boston, Bill James said that it was Bill Lajoie who recommended the pickup of David Ortiz, saying that Ortiz would kill in Fenway.
I can’t find breakdowns on Pedro or Clement’s contracts, but Pedro (~13M/year) got roughly the same thing as Wells, Clement, and Miller (~13.5M/year plus 8 million in performance bonuses).
Anyone who would rather have Pedro than the three guys the Red Sox got??
Kim looks as if he will be suffering from the same fate as Wiki Gonzalez is with the Mariners, in that he will waste away in AAA, while costing a pretty penny nonetheless.
By trading Winn to any team willing to pay the full amount remaining on his contract, while receiving a low-end single-A prospect in return would be a good deal…as long as it is in conjunction with the signing of Odalis Perez. With Perez, it will allow the M’s to go with a 12-man pitching staff, with two long relievers in Franklin and Villone.
I’m quite disappointed the the Ms made no effort on Wade Miller; to me, he’s a great risk/reward ration. Frankly, I like Miller more than Clement at the risk level here. I’d certainly be gladsome to take a winger on Miller as the # 5 starter rather than Franklin, and that’s not having any idea concerning how many innings Miller can actually absorb.
Theo in Beantown is having a most impressive offseason, although the fact that he ‘lost out’ on Pedro makes him look even better than he would have if he’d succeeded in paying for the new wing of Martinez Memorial Hospital which the contrat he _offered_ Pedro was by itself. I look at Theo with money to spend, and Bill Bavasi with money to spend. Bavasi went for two ultra-high profile guys—and still has a team full of holes and replacement level duff. Theo has upgraded many holes. His pitching staff right now is arguably better than the one he started last year with, and the Miller sign is exactly the right kind of gamble to make. I’m frankly not at all impressed with Bill B.’s work this offseason, but Theo is showing the world how this all is done.
. . . The Ms _should_ have been all over Wade Miller.
#
Wells has had an era in the 2’s in Fenway Park over his last 35 innings there. The bad career ERA in Fenway is a result of his days with the Jays and Orioles.
And Fenway’s actually a pretty good park for a flyball pitcher. It’s about even for promoting or preventing homers by righties and it historically decreases homers by lefties by 25%.
Couple o’ things…
Bill Lee used to get away with pitching there, so did Ellis Kinder (both lefties with some talent, though Lee did say he was always afraid the Monster fould fall over and kill Rico Petrocelli at short). And Bob Ojeda, while we’re at it.
And I think Fenway became more of a pitcher’s park when they added suites and cut off wind…
Grats to the Sox, they may put together the best record for the rest of this decade with heads up deals.
Also grats to Depo for backing out of the Randy deal. LA was getting the short end of the stick in the whole transaction IMHO.