Drew vs. Sexson
Excuse me while I hop back on the “Sexson contract bad!” soapbox.
ESPN is reporting that the Dodgers have agreed to a deal with JD Drew worth $55M over 5 years. If you recall, the M’s signed Richie Sexson to a deal worth $50M over 4 years.
Not only is Drew a better hitter, he plays a more important position. He’s also left-handed, which this team needs desperately.
I hear some of you out there screaming, “But he’s so injury prone!” and yeah, maybe he is. I’ll bet you his shoulder doesn’t fall off, though, which might be more than we can say for Sexson.
Beltre on Perez, other good stuff
Good stuff in the PI: The M’s are working on Odalis Perez, and his friend Beltre’s part of the full-court press. But even better for me was this toss-off at the end:
The non-tender process will create a new pool of low-priced free agents. General manager Bill Bavasi has said he’ll take a good look at the non-tender pool.
I looooooove hearing stuff like this. Gillick had a kind of open disdain for building full rosters, occasionally tossing money at a Colbrunn when it crossed his mind — which is why his benches sucked, and the Gillick M’s were often unprepared for injuries. Knowing that team’s paying attention to stuff like this, even if they ultimately do nothing, makes me happy.
I wonder if Bavasi knows this about the hard-core M’s fans and is just saying stuff like that to buy our affection. (pause) Well, it’s working then. Go Bill go!
Non-Tenders
Here’s the complete list of players who were non-tendered. The ones below are those who I think are somewhat interesting for the M’s. Keep in mind, however, that the M’s are essentially at budget right now. Odds are we won’t be signing any of these players.
David Eckstein, SS
Josh Phelps, 1B
Wade Miller, RHP
Alex Cora, 2B
Dustan Mohr, OF
The Dodgers non-tender of Cora is pretty stunning, to me. They’re willing to pay $3.5 million for Jose Valentin, but scared of what Alex Cora might get in arbitration? DePo is having a terrible offseason.
Two-for-two
I’m on board with both of these suggestions — Wade Miller for the rotation, David Eckstein for shortstop. Dave’s pretty much covered Miller, and assuming he’s healthy, there’s really no downside there. His numbers the last three years have been very solid: 3.66 ERA, 440 IP, 395 H, 42 HR, 183 BB, 379 K and a .242/.318/.380 line against. The injury might mean you’re more comfortable with a one-year deal, but given that he’s only 28, I’d be fine with a two-year deal (with the second year perhaps worth more based on games started in the first year, kind of like Moyer’s deal).
Eckstein’s a harder argument, but he’d probably come cheap and it’s not like there’s a better option hanging around at the moment. I’d really like to see Jose Lopez head back to Tacoma rather than burn a full year of service time, and Eckstein’s not horrible in the field or with the bat. Honestly, with the exception of power, I’d expect him to out perform Lopez next season, particularly in the OBP department. You hit him 9th, no big deal.
Eckstein!
Um, I want to make a really dumb argument. I think the M’s should look at just-released David Eckstein. He could be a decent (well, okay) stop-gap at short if they want to start grooming Lopez for second next year by getting him the reps at Tacoma. But even if you don’t… Eckstein’s a good 2b/SS guy who works his ass off. He’s funny. If you don’t think Boone’s going to be motivated by last season’s performance or having his head clear or this being his walk year, how about having a hyper-active hamster eager to outplay him every day? He makes Bloomquist look like a napping sloth when it comes to work ethics.
Plus, seriously, he just cracks me up. If we’re looking at 80 wins next year and Eckstein can make that 5% more amusing, that’s got to be worth something.
Wade Miller
I mentioned this as a possibility at the feed on Saturday, and now it is reality; the Astros have non-tendered Wade Miller. He now gets the official Dave endorsement as the way to fill out the roster. He missed about half of 2004 with a rotator cuff injury and a frayed labrum, but received a clean bill of health from Lewis Yocum earlier this month. He will start throwing next month and reportedly should be ready for spring training.
The team has depth in the starting rotation and can afford to take a risk on a high upside guy like Miller. He’s very similar to Matt Clement, who we stumped for earlier in the offseason; good power stuff, mediocre command, looks to have upside beyond his previous performance, which was already pretty good.
Forget Odalis Perez or Kevin Millwood. If you can get Wade Miller for something like 1 year, $5 million with some incentives, it could be a terrific deal.
The A’s
Perhaps the most interesting story of the offseason so far has been the roster reconstruction going on down in Oakland. Billy Beane is obviously the most high profile GM in the game and has developed a reputation for building young, successful teams that aren’t quite good enough to win the World Series. After missing the playoffs for the first time in five years, Beane proceeded to overhaul the core of his team. Gone are Damian Miller (age 35), Jermaine Dye (30), Chris Hammond (38), Jim Mecir (34), Mark McLemore (40), Mark Redman (30), Athur Rhodes (35), Tim Hudson (29), and Mark Mulder (27). That’s nearly 40 percent of last years roster and about $31 million in payroll, more than half of Oakland’s budget for 2005.
In return, Beane has brought in Kiki Calero (29), Juan Cruz (26), Dan Haren (24), Tyler Johnson (23), Dan Meyer (23), Jason Kendall (30), Keith Ginter (28), Charlie Thomas (25), Deric Barton (19). The difference in ages from the players shipped out versus received is striking, and the payroll difference is just as large. The combined payroll for the eight new major leaguers is about $13 million. Not only did the A’s get significantly younger, but they have shaved about $19 million off the 2005 payroll.
So, what have the A’s done to their actual team with these moves?
Offense
In reality, it looks the ’05 offense, right now, should be about the same as the ’04 offense, perhaps just slightly better. Jason Kendall should be a step up from Damian Miller, Keith Ginter will be better than Marco Scutaro, but Nick Swisher should be about the same as Jermaine Dye was last year. They could see improved performance from Bobby Crosby, though it’s just as likely that Erubiel Durazo slides back a bit to offset that increase. Overall, it’s hard to see a dramatic change either way. It’s still a league average offense with a line-up of solid hitters but only one superstar in the middle of the order.
Defense.
The defense will most likely be worse in 2005 than it was in 2004. Jason Kendall’s not the defensive catcher than Damian Miller is. Keith Ginter, as a second baseman, makes a nice hitter. Nick Swisher isn’t much of an asset in the outfield. The decline probably isn’t huge, but it’s there.
Rotation
Obviously, this is the big change. Gone are Hudson, Mulder, and Redman, who combined for 606 innings last year. However, despite their reputations, they posted a solid but not spectacular 4.23 ERA. The average AL ERA was 4.63, so as a group, they were about 10 percent better than average. If the rest of the staff had matched the performances of those three, the A’s 4.23 ERA would have ranked 4th in the American League, slightly worse than the 4.17 ERA (second in the league) the team actually managed. Despite all the hand wringing about moving Hudson and Mulder, they weren’t the main cogs in the 2004 A’s, and the A’s aren’t losing superstar performances from the 60 percent of the rotation they traded away.
However, they are replacing 600 above average innings with Dan Haren, Dan Meyer, and Joe Blanton. I’ve been a big fan of Haren and Meyer and they are two of the better young pitchers in the game, despite not having overwhelming stuff. However, Haren has yet to establish himself at the major league level, posting an ERA 14 percent below league average during his 118 innings over the past two seasons. He looked like he was ready to turn the corner as the season wore down, however, and if he stays healthy, I think he’s a solid bet to be league average or so in 2005. Meyer and Blanton are a bit sketchier; neither has proven that they are major league ready, and the A’s are taking a pretty big risk counting on them to take the hill every 5th day. I think Meyer’s the better of the two, but I’m not sold on either one keeping their jobs all season long. I’d expect the A’s will eventually get something like 400 innings from this trio, posting an ERA around 10 percent below league average. The A’s will have to hope for 200 innings from other sources, so I’m projecting the three spots vacated by Mulder, Hudson, and Redman to give up about 340 runs next year, as opposed to the 285 they surrended in 2004. 55 runs is a significant downgrade. Barring huge gains from Rich Harden or a return for Cy Young form by Barry Zito, the A’s rotation will likely cost the A’s about 4 or 5 games in the standings, compared to the 2004 version.
Bullpen
Perhaps the overlooked part of these deals have been the tremendous, cheap relievers the A’s have been accumulating. Their bullpen is perhaps the best, and arguably the deepest, in baseball right now. Dotel, Cruz, Calero, and Duchscherer from the right side with Rincon and Johnson as the lefties. On the outskirts looking in are Chad Bradford, Jairo Garcia, Huston Street, Chris Mabeus, and Seth Etherton. That second group that they don’t have room for might just make up a league average bullpen in 2005. The A’s have arms on top of arms coming out of the pen, and they shouldn’t have nearly the same problems protecting leads that they did in 2004. Expect a 2-3 win improvement from the bullpen for the A’s.
Overall, the current roster looks to be about 2-3 wins worse than last years model, plus lacks the “security” of having proven innings eaters in the rotation. However, for that downgrade, the A’s have stockpiled tremendous depth, gotten significantly younger, and freed up around $20 million in payroll. And he got Deric Barton, who will probably be a significant part of the A’s line-up in 2007 or so. That kid can really mash.
Conclusion
On an individual move by move basis, I’ll admit that I was a bit perplexed by Beane’s moves, but taking a step back and looking at it from a macro level, it looks like he’s setup himself up to have another successful offseason. The A’s have money to spend, and I’d be stunned if they weren’t in on J.D. Drew right now. If they manage to acquire a significant bat to improve the offense or another arm for the rotation, it looks like the A’s will again be a 88-92 win team. Only this 88-92 win team will be built of young players entering their prime rather than players who have experienced success and are heading towards big paydays and possible decline.
To those projecting the A’s to finish last in the AL West, I suggest you take another look at the roster. This is far from a bad team. There are some calculated risks in the pitching rotation, though the ridiculous depth of the bullpen should counteract some of that. The A’s are one more good player away from being about as good a team as they were last year, and they’ve got plenty of money to bring that player in. The A’s won’t be the same team they were last year, but I’ll be surprised if they don’t come pretty close to matching last years win total.
40 man moves
The Mariners made two moves today to create room for Ron Villone and Adrian Beltre on the 40 man roster. They traded Aaron Taylor (#22 on the Future Forty) for middling non-prospect Sean Green. This is basically a rehash of last years Allan Simpson-Chris Buglovsky swap, where the Mariners send a potentially useful reliever to Colorado for minor league roster filler simply to open up space on the 40-man.
They also designated Rett Johnson for assignment, going against the rumor that Aaron Looper was next on the chopping block. Johnson has one of the better arms in the system, but the 2004 season was basically a lost year for him due to some personal issues (which we won’t elaborate on). There’s a pretty good chance that someone grabs him on waivers. Despite his issues, I certainly would have kept him over Aaron Looper, though it was known that Johnson was potentially vulnerable this winter.
Perez?
So they’ve made an offer to Odalis Perez, eh? Color me excited. As for the cash, dealing Randy Winn for a player making the major league minimum saves roughly $3.5M for next season. Not quite enough, obviously, but a solid start. Ryan Franklin brings that total to just under $6M, and now you’re talking.
Feed Pictures
As requested, I’ve added a few more shots from Saturday’s feed to the page. Including a better one of Derek.