Meche re-signs
The M’s avoided arbitration with Gil Meche, bringing him back for 2005 at $2.5 million, a little less than he probably would have gotten had an arbitor decided his salary. For as much as we’ve questioned Meche and the overexcitement surrounding his abilities, he’s obviously a good deal at this price.
This will be my last post for a little while. I’m just… tired, and I want to spend some time doing and writing about things other than baseball. I’ll be back relatively soon, no worries, and Derek and Jason will hold down the fort just fine. And, you know, if the M’s trade for Babe Ruth, I’ll call off the break.
Updated Free Agency Rankings
With the recent signings of most of the big names left on the market, I’ve decided to update my contract rankings that I initially did before Christmas. The changes aren’t dramatic, though we do have a new leader in the clubhouse for worst contract handed out this offseason.
Here’s a link to the original list and subsequent discussion, in which I addressed several common questions.
As of 1/11/05
Best Contracts of 2005
| Rank | Player | Team | Years | Total |
| 1. | A. Beltre | Seattle | 5 | $64m |
| 2. | M. Clement | Boston | 3 | $25.5m |
| 3. | W. Miller | Boston | 1 | $4m |
| 4. | B. Radke | Minn. | 2 | $18m |
| 5. | N. Garciaparra | Chicago | 1 | $8m |
| 6. | C. Beltran | NY Mets | 7 | $119m |
| 7. | J. Kent | Los Angeles | 2 | $17m |
| 8. | T. Walker | Chicago | 1 | $2.5m |
| 9. | W. Williams | San Diego | 1 | $3.5m |
| 10 | R. Hidalgo | Texas | 1 | $5m |
Worst Contracts of 2005
| Rank | Player | Team | Years | Total |
| 1. | D. Lowe | Los Angeles | 4 | $36m |
| 2. | R. Ortiz | Arizona | 4 | $33m |
| 3. | R. Sexson | Seattle | 4 | $50m |
| 4. | J. Wright | NY Yankees | 3 | $21m |
| 5. | T. Percival | Detroit | 2 | $12m |
| 6. | P. Martinez | NY Mets | 4 | $53 |
| 7. | E. Milton | Cincinatti | 3 | $24m |
| 8. | O. Cabrera | Anaheim | 4 | $32m |
| 9. | V. Castilla | Washington | 2 | $6.2m |
| 10. | C. Koskie | Toronto | 3 | $17m |
Lastings Milledge, #1 Mets prospect
Baseball America’s writeup on Milledge as the #1 Mets prospect includes this:
New York was able to get him with the 12th overall pick in 2003 because of his mixed success with wood bats, a rumored high price tag and allegations of improper sexual conduct—none of which was ever substantiated.
This is not true. The circumstances surrounding his departure from the school are not clear. There were allegations that Lastings was having sex with 12 and 13-year old girls (consenting, for what that can mean at that age) that may have resulted in him being expelled. These have certainly not been proven. The allegations were investigated, but nothing happened–
From the New York Daily News:
A Pinellas County (Fla.) sheriff’s spokeswoman revealed to the Daily News three weeks ago that Milledge was investigated for consensual sexual contact with 12- and 13-year-old girls when he was 16. Milledge completed a juvenile “diversion” program that allowed him to avoid prosecution. It consisted of community service, a written essay and a “scared straight” prison visit, according to the spokeswoman.
But to say that none of the charges were ever substantiated… well, Milledge fessed up to another part of the sex allegations.
Or, earlier:
He was projected as one of the top three picks in this year’s draft, but when word got out that he had been expelled from Northside Christian School as a junior because of sexual conduct with a younger girl – Milledge admits to having had sexual relations with his then-15-year-old girlfriend – he fell to No. 12, where the Mets picked him.
The Milledges made a admission about the second part as an explanation about what happened with the police:
Lastings did not have sexual conduct with girls as young as 12 and 13, they say. He did go through a juvenile program, they admit, but voluntarily and only because he could have been prosecuted for the sexual contact he admitted having with his girlfriend.
The Mets went so far as to address the issues, essentially saying that they felt that the really bad allegations weren’t true.
Which leaves what Milledge admitted to, which is the having-sex-with-a-15-year-old part.
I’m not going to get into whether or not thes laws are fair to consenting teens, or… or anything like it. I’m not qualified to weigh the reasoning that might have gone into the police’s choice to prosecute. I’m not qualified to speculate on why Lastings felt that he might be prosecuted for his later offense instead.
But I want to point here that even the Milledges admitted that he did something related to sex with an minor that he could have been prosecuted for, and that Lastings went through a program to (if you entirely believe their side of the story) avoid possible prosecution for that.
Again, that’s the rosy view, which leaves unexplained his departure from the school, whether that was expulsion over the possible sex issues or voluntary, and assumes the letter to the school that accuses him of the really-young-girl-thing was false.
… allegations of improper sexual conduct—none of which was ever substantiated.
This is true only if you take the most narrow view of what that conduct might be, and at best substantially understates the truth of what we know and also of the larger circumstances surrounding what we know.
Today’s random baseball history bit
I do a crazy amount of baseball reading. So I figure it’s the off-season, I might as well toss some of these tidbits out to amuse you as we wait for spring training.
June 4, 1974, Texas Rangers at Cleveland Indians. It’s 10c beer night (which today would be like having 50c beer night), no limit on consumption. Tied 5-5 in the bottom of the ninth, the Indians have two runners on. Two “youths” run out on the field intent on stealing Texas outfielder Jeff Burroughs’ hat. They get into a fight with Burroughs, and then other fans pour onto the field as the Rangers and Indians run into the outfield, sparking a brawl involving about 50 people from the stands. Finally it’s broken up, but as the teams return to their positions, another fight breaks out and the ump calls the game. 9-0 Rangers.
Bremerton Bloomquist Brawl!
David of Sports and Bremertonians let us know that they’re running (frequent USSM commenter) Jim Thomsen’s article on Willie Bloomquist which ran in the Bremerton Sun but is not online. This piece is in reply to a previous article that supported starting Bloomquist at shortstop this year for reasons that seemed more grounded in love for Willie the guy than evidence that he’d do well for the team playing regularly.
While I agree with the general point of Thomsen’s article, I’ll say that I don’t think it’s true that he’s not good enough to play at the ML level, and I’d instead say he’s not good enough to be a ML regular.
And I think saying that ZR and RF are the best defensive stats the analysts have come up with isn’t true, either. Range factor’s a pretty bad stat unless you’re comparing teammates at the same position, and given the other stuff out there, like Davenport’s work or UZR.. even fielding runs and defensive Win Shares are better.
That said, you can see that that’s not the argument he wants to get into, and it’s not the place to build a case for sophisticated evaluation of the relative merits of methods that measure defense.
Anyway, I thought it was cool that this kind of thing can get into the Bremerton Sun, and props to Mr. Thomsen.
Beltran to Mets
Word on the streets is a 7y, $119m agreement. Cameron to move to right though, frankly, I’d keep Cameron in center and move Beltran, as Cameron’s the better defender. They might not end up playing Cameron there, as his value as a CF is so much higher than RF they might find the trade market a more attractive option.
7y, $119m… I wonder if Steinbrenner’s picking up the phone right now, calling Boras to ask if it’s been signed yet, and if not–
Cut comments, #2, Masao Kida
Another comment I wrote up on the M’s and didn’t submit for the BP2005 Mariners chapter. Remeber, there’s a reason this didn’t get in, and after the comment, I’ll comment on the comment–
Masao Kida
Kida appeared in Seattle with little fanfare, a waiver claim from the Dodgers. On hearing him introduced in relief, a couple times I heard a fan say “who?†followed by some variation of “he must be pretty goodâ€. With the high-profile success of some Japanese imports (Hideki Matsui, Ichiro! for instance), the hype preceding and lack of follow up on the failures, there’s a predisposition to look to these guys as something exotic and valuable.
But it’s the same with baseball players as anything else. Take a random Japanese musical act: it could be someone awesome and undiscovered here, like Shena Ringo, or it could just be the Japanese version of the Backstreet Boys, singing vapid lyrics over pop hooks, as ultimately unremarkable and valueless – but in a different language! The probability, picking at random, is much higher that you’re going to get a nondescript generic bad reliever.
That would be Masao Kida. Shena Ringo may be the Ichiro! of Japanese music, if you’re wondering. The Mariners brought back Kida on a minor-league deal for 2005, showing that at least they are not dazzled by the import tag and know they’re shopping the bargain bin.
—
First, it’s way too many words to spend on Masao Kida. I’d much rather spend a lot more time talking about someone else.
Second, I did hear fans say that a couple of times, but I think the comment makes it seem like the import=good sentiment it’s a much larger feeling than it is.
Third, Shena Ringo is cool, but I don’t know if she even wants overseas success, and I wish there was a way to get cool world CDs without spending a fortune — “椎名林檎” (Shouso Strip) cost me $30 to buy a legitimate copy (and it was worth it, which is more than I can say about most CDs I buy for $15)(and the newer one maybe doesn’t rock as much but is also really good). And because there’s always problems doing Japanese names in English, there’s the question of [Shena/Shina/Shiina/Shiiana] Ringo or Ringo in front (I went with what’s on the CD).
I’ll stop gushing over her.
Okay, except — she can speak English and sing it too, she’s funny and smart, and I’ve seen her do the same song slow and kinda catchy-sing-songy and then almost as metal, and it was awesome both ways. I totally, totally dig her.
And at this point, I feel obligated to say that I understand that there’s this weird baseball writing-music thing I don’t get and don’t want to be a part of, where every article by Gammons has three or four random musical recommendations and many baseball discussion threads end up with people wondering if baseball fans are disproportionately into Wilco.
Anyway. I listen to anything good I can get my hands on, and I like Shena Ringo. That’s all.
Yabu to A’s rumors
Toshi (official U.S.S. Mariner super-reader with the Japanese connections) reports that the hot rumor across the Pacific is that the A’s are supposedly close to signing Keiichi Yabu (of the Hanshin Tigers) to start for them. Stats here.
Immediate thoughts — at 36 headed into this season, he’s not what you might expect the A’s to be after. His rates are all good, but he’s doesn’t have the kind of crazy-good stats Matsuke, say, does where your eyes bug out and you call the Mariners up to ask them to sign him immediately.
It’d be interesting, though — as we’ve noted before, Oakland’s got a rotation they’re still sorting out.
PI column and hate mail o’ the day
Sooooo… No, I haven’t been linking to the PI pieces I’ve been writing (here’s the last one on the bullpen). This is going to sound weird, but it’s been a lot of stuff I’ve written about here, but mostly I’m working out how to write for them, so as astute readers have noticed, it’s not a voice I’m comfortable with, and there’s been a lot of editing (side note: if you’ve got ideas, comments, except to mention Mateo didn’t make the cut, please — email me, I’d love to hear about how to make that format work better). I’m sort of used to working with Jonah @ BP, where the conversations for my column went–
Me: “So I’m thinking about writing about x, y, or z.”
Jonah: “Ooooh, Y. Definately. And talk about this other thing.”
Me: “Heeey, yeah.”
Then I’d see if I could crank something out. And sometimes Jonah would reject it, or we’d go back and forth and finally get to something good. That took years. I’m sort of.. trying to force it.
But anyway, to my point about not linking. It’s also sort of a trial thing, and I didn’t want our readership causing the PI mail servers to catch fire and fall over with email. I mean, I love everyone, but fired up readers got the M’s to apologize, in public, for something, which is like the mountain bowing to the wind. Anyway, so this new audience… duuuude. Check this out.
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Lowe and DePo
The Dodgers are on the verge of wrapping up the worst offseason of any team in baseball by guaranteeing Derek Lowe-get this-$36 million over 4 years.
This Derek Lowe. The one who posted a 5.42 ERA last year, 10 percent below league average, and a 4.47 ERA in 2003, just 5 percent above league average. Lowe wasn’t quite as bad as he pitched last year-an inordinate amount of his balls in play went for hits, which will probably come back to normal next year-but, at best, he’s a league average innings eater.
There’s really not a huge difference between Derek Lowe and Ryan Franklin. Both have rubber arms who have taken the ball every 5 days without getting hurt. Both have mediocre control and don’t miss bats, relying on their defense to get outs for them. They won’t ruin your team’s chances of contending, but they certainly are nothing more than role players who are just marginally better than what a creative GM could snag on the waiver wire.
Looking at the offseason, if the Dodgers complete this deal, they’ll have spent $36 million of their 2005 payroll on J.D. Drew, Odalis Perez, Derek Lowe, Jeff Kent, Jose Valentin, Wilson Alvarez, Elmer Dessens, and Ricky Ledee. $36 million for that collection of talent?
Or, written another way, they’ll pay Lowe and Valentin $12.5 million in 2005, basically the same as the annual average value of Adrian Beltre’s contract.
Adrian Beltre or Derek Lowe and Jose Valentin. DePo chose B.
Ouch.