Comments guidleline revisions
So there was a day a week or so ago when a comment spammer went after us, 125 comments in a day. Our filters got them all. {Update: as I wrote this, one of the spammers figured out how to get through the filters. @#$@#$@#$} That makes me super-happy. And yet–
I am increasingly annoyed (and I think Dave agrees) with some of the bizarre comment drifting. If your comment, or a paragraph in your comment, starts “Off-topic:” or “This is off topic” or “I know this is off-topic” please, please, please don’t post it. If you want us to talk about something or start a thread, email us. We’ll do it.
I’m annoyed (and I think no one else is) with some of the self-site promotion. We go to great efforts to keep advertisements off this site, and while “ESPN has commentary on this at this link” is one thing, I’m uncomfortable with people pushing their own stuff. If it’s good enough, people will link to it on their own. And even though there’s a whole issue of intent, and who they are, and I feel lame saying this — this is sort of bad manners. Instead of bringing something to the party, it’s like hanging around and saying “hey, this sucks, come on over to my place.” We link to M’s sites. If people leave us to find other sites they like better, we’re cool with that. Many people from awesome blogs post great comments here, and their names are URL-ified if you’re interested in checking out more of what they have to say. Beyond that, it’s a long and slipperly slope of interpretation and argumentation, and I’m inclined to draw the line pretty strictly to avoid having larger problems later.
On both counts, we may crank the Despot-o-meter up a little. We’ll see. This kind of makes me want to just go ahead and implement registration, but… I don’t want to. Anyway, I’m revising the guidelines so this is stated policy now.
Contract sheet updated
Check it out here. I tried to make this version a little clearer by grouping the players differently and including Bucky, Leone, et cetera (and Wiki! Can’t forget Wiki!).
I know the formatting’s still a little goofy. Sorry.
Resisting the feud
People sometimes ask me why I’m such a big Alan Schwarz fan, and I don’t always articulate it very well. I just really enjoy his writing. He’s intelligent, thoughtful, insightful, and has an understanding of the game, but lacks the annoying tone of most of the other analysts who use statistics to explain their place in the game. He comes across as someone trying to educate, not lecture, and his latest piece at Baseball America is further proof of this. It’s a roundtable of two long time scouts and two of the more prominant names in the statistical community with the intention of bringing the two sides together. It’s worth reading.
Unfortunately, it didn’t work. I had a nice little blurb written here that started with “no disrespect to the four guys involved”, but I deleted it and am just going to say what I feel.
Voros McCracken comes across as a total jerk. Gary Hughes doesn’t fare much better. Eddie Bane and Gary Huckabay apparently handled themselves well, but the sniping between Hughes and McCracken was downright petty. Both Hughes and McCracken spent almost no time explaining their strength and what they can bring to the table, but instead focused on letting us know why the other side is flawed. The reality is that both sides are flawed, though in different ways, and those who are willing to accept that fact and use the complementary aspects of scouting and statistics are those who are going to move ahead in understanding the game. Eddie Bane is one of those guys. So is Chris Antonetti. There are thoughtful, reasonable, well spoken guys on both sides of the fence. Unfortunately, Voros McCracken and Gary Hughes are not part of that group.
Honestly, the statistical community needs new leadership. Rob Neyer, Joe Sheehan, Voros McCracken, Mitchel Lichtman, all intelligent guys. And all of them need to take a giant step back, eat their pride, stop focusing on the flaws of the scouting community, and take a class on personal relations. As much as I agree with a lot of the theories and insights that performance analysis has brought to the game, I’m too often ashamed to be associated with the current voices of the statistical analysis community.
What started as an article to bring the two sides together reads like a rollcall of the issues that keep the two sides apart. We need to stop trying to change the other side, and look in the mirror. Maybe the scouts don’t think we’re jerks because they’re defending their jobs. Perhaps, just maybe, you really are acting like a jerk. Joe, Rob, Voros, something to think about…
Los Angeles Angels of Anahiem
In response to recent changes —
I will not be calling the Angels this until we have to.
Thank you for your understanding during this difficult time,
Washington State Derek Zumsteg of Long Beach, Presented by Anchor Steam
Bonuses and taxation
You may notice from the handy M’s contract chart that the team paid a ton of money to Beltre and Sexson this year that more or less with their 2005 salaries equals what they’re paid in other years. Why do this, you ask? The answer conveniently is clearly explained in an ESPN article today:
For the rest of the American public, signing bonuses count as wages earned, with both the employer and employee having to pay taxes under FICA (the Federal Insurance Contribution Act). But in 1958, baseball players — the exclusion for other athletes later became understood — were exempt from FICA taxes on their signing bonuses because it was determined that no service was technically rendered for the player’s bonus.
But in November, the U.S. Treasury Department modified the loophole so that FICA taxes had to be paid on signing bonuses signed after Jan. 11.
The article’s about how different taxation schemes affect the actual value of contracts. It’s wrong in one important respect: players in all states pay income taxes when they play in states with income taxes, and in many states, they pay double tax from their state of residence. Sammy Sosa attempted to sue Illinois over this, but Illinois cowardly weaseled out of the suit (which was entirely reasonable: Sosa said “how come you’re taxing me on income I made in another state and was taxed for there?” and Illinois’ response was “Uhhhhhhhh… you’ll have to take that up with that other state.”)
So there’s kind of a… an automatic tax burden for every player that can be made substantially worse if they live in the wrong state, or if they play for a team in a state with particularly aggressive residency requirements (81 days a year? taxable!).
This is one oft-overlooked advantage that Washington (and Texas, and others), with our regressive sales taxes, have in attracting free agents: there’s no additional tax burden on free agents.
Mariner contract status sheet
You’ll notice a new link in the features, the Mariner contract sheet which I hope everyone finds helpful. Like the Big Board, as details emerge, we’re going to continue to refine this, so… check it out.
Odalis Perez to Dodgers
I know everyone was on the Perez bandwagon, and I expect a lot of handwringing from people upset that we didn’t get him. However, 3 years, $24 million isn’t the bargain folks were hoping for, and I’m still concerned about Perez’s mechanics and durability. I wouldn’t have matched this offer either, and with LA going to $24 million, it’s likely it would have taken the M’s 3/$27 million to get him signed. They weren’t willing to go that high on Freddy Garcia, wisely I believe, and Garcia is a better pitcher.
It’s too much for Perez for this organization. If we were one arm away from contending, it’s a risk worth considering, but not for a team that still has a lot of question marks. They can find a suitable pitcher without throwing that much money at him.
M’s sign Pokey Reese
Thanks to DG in the comments for first noting this, and we get confirmation from Larry LaRue this morning. The deal is for 1 year and about $1.9 million. The team sold Jolbert Cabrera to Japan to make room on the roster and to clear budget space.
This is a terrific move. I’ve been stumping to sign Pokey for two years now. Yes, he’s a miserable hitter and the team can expect to have to pinch hit for him in nearly any situation where a hit is needed. But he’s also a treemendous defensive infielder, one of the best in the game, and his glove is easily worth the money the team is giving him. He’s also a high percentage baserunner, and could be a big weapon stealing bases as a pinch-runner on days he doesn’t start.
This also makes it nearly guaranteed that Jose Lopez will begin 2005 in Triple-A Tacoma, which I’ve been advocating all along. Lopez simply isn’t ready to play everyday in the major leagues right now, and it will be better for him and the Mariners to have him improving in Tacoma than struggling in Seattle.
The fact that the M’s basically swapped out Jolbert Cabrera for Pokey Reese makes this a big improvement. Another move by the M’s that we’ll clap our hands for. Well done, guys.
Noowwww, the Johnson trade
But first — what exactly would it take for Bud Selig to veto a trade for the best interests of baseball? I’m not going to make a case that this should be the one, but if he (as he said he did) agonized over the Alex Rodriguez trade, then how in the world does he approve this one? I’m going to go have to look into the details of the luxury tax calculations (post to follow) but for now….
Randy Johnson for Javier Vazquez, Brad Halsey, Dioner Navarro, and $9m. Vazquez is owed $34.5m over the next three years of his contract. ($10.5, $11.5, $12.5).
So to the trade itself: I don’t know how long Randy can keep up being an elite pitcher, but until he explodes on the mound, projections are useless.
As for the Yankee prospects, I’ll wait to see what Dave says (Dave says they suck; see the comments), but I can’t believe there’s much of interest in that system and I won’t believe they’re any good until I see it. The Yankees are the greatest of all teams at the hype-and-trade, when they manage to get expectations about one of their guys blown way out proportion to their actual ability, spend the prospect in a trade, and they end up forgotten. This should give New York a true ace, moves Mussina to the two slot, and then.. Jaret Wright and Carl Pavano? I wouldn’t have signed those two, but that’s looking pretty good.
However… why’d they decline their option on Lieber at $8m? That’s a pretty good deal compared to what they spent on these other guys. And in free agency he got three years, $21m. A million dollars to the Yankees? Obviosuly it doesn’t matter to them. I don’t understand it.
Navarro supposedly gets a layover in Arizona before being moved to LA, who got rid of Shawn Green’s $16m remaining year by paying for half of it. And look, I’m not a big fan of Green, and he’s certainly not an elite player, but — is Shawn Green for a year at $8m with the chance to negotiate an extension worth any two prospects? And for LA, it seems weird to spend $8m to save $8m, but they also get two guys back they can use. I’m not wild about this not knowing the value of the guys they’re getting, but it’s… I was just about to type “not the worst deal DePodesta’s made this off-season” but I realized how bad that sounds.