Updated Future Forty
The Future Forty has been updated for the last time during the offseason. The next update will come at the end of spring training, and then we will resume monthly updates during the season.
The big change is the removal of Clint Nageotte, who, as I had overlooked in the last update, passed the service time required to maintain rookie status, and is no longer eligible for the list. Also leaving were Aaron Taylor (traded to Colorado) and Ryan Rowland-Smith (selected in Rule 5 draft), and I shuffled a few guys around after having more substantial conversations with people who convinced me I was wrong about a certain aspect of the player. Joining the list are three fringey prospects; Rick Guttormson, Brent Johnson, and Jared Thomas.
I avoided adding Yuniesky Betancourt at this time because, frankly, it would be guessing on my part. The reports on him are all over the board, and we don’t really know anything about Betancourt at this point in time. Yes, he’s probably one of the M’s 40 best prospects right now, but whether he’s #2 or #40 is complete speculation, so I’ll leave him off the list until I actually have a capable reason for placing him in a specific spot.
If I’ve been neglecting your prospect related questions, this is also a good catch-all thread for those. Feel free to use the search function of the site first, however, as I may have already answered your question in the past.
Comments
44 Responses to “Updated Future Forty”
My questions:
#5: Can you elaborate on why Bobby Livingston is one of the “least impressive” for his status? What level do you think he should be at in ’05, and what’s your sense, if any, of where the organization will put him?
#6: Any word on whether Snelling is ready to report full-tilt to spring training?
#10: What’s your sense of the best thing to do with Leone? Kick him out of the Mariner system, maybe? (For his own good?)
#14: Your comment about Atchison implies that you think Jeff Nelson will make the team. True?
#22: What do you like about Nottingham? What red flags do you see at this point?
Thanks. I’ll take my answers off the air.
Dave –
This list was posted on Baseball America.
How many of these statements do you agree with?
Best Hitter for Average: Jeremy Reed
Best Power Hitter: Wladimir Balentien
Best Strike-Zone Discipline: Jeremy Reed
Fastest Baserunner: Jamal Strong
Best Athlete: Matt Tuiasosopo
Best Fastball: Felix Hernandez
Best Curveball: Felix Hernandez
Best Slider: Clint Nageotte
Best Changeup: Cesar Jimenez
Best Control: Bobby Livingston
Best Defensive Catcher: Rene Rivera
Best Defensive Infielder: Oswaldo Navarro
Best Infield Arm: Adam Jones
Best Defensive Outfielder: Jamal Strong
Best Outfield Arm: Shin-Soo Choo
Well, don’t be shy, you two…
#5: Can you elaborate on why Bobby Livingston is one of the “least impressive†for his status? What level do you think he should be at in ‘05, and what’s your sense, if any, of where the organization will put him?
His stuff is just thoroughly mediocre. He’s pitched well in lower levels by throwing a ton of strikes, but pitchers with his skillset don’t have a great track record. The farm system has been a lot better recently than it is now, so a guy with Livingston’s profile wouldn’t have cracked the top 5 in any of the recent years past. I think he’ll spend most, if not all, of 2005 in San Antonio.
#6: Any word on whether Snelling is ready to report full-tilt to spring training?
I’m not sure we’ll ever see full-tilt Snelling again. I’ll settle for moderately healthy, which is what he supposedly is now.
#10: What’s your sense of the best thing to do with Leone? Kick him out of the Mariner system, maybe? (For his own good?)
For the organization, it would probably be to have him sit around in Tacoma in case Beltre or Spiezio get hurt. For him, it’s definitely to go elsewhere. Sometimes, you just cut a marginal guy like that loose so he can catch one elsewhere and have a career. I wouldn’t cry if the M’s did Leone that favor.
#14: Your comment about Atchison implies that you think Jeff Nelson will make the team. True?
Unless he’s not healthy, I’ll be stunned if Nelson doesn’t break camp with the team.
#22: What do you like about Nottingham? What red flags do you see at this point?
His breaking ball is good and he’s extremely confident on the mound. He’s also extremely immature and has a lot of growing up to do.
Okay, BA’s tools survey, which is pretty hit or miss, but Jim Callis did the M’s, so its better than most. There might be a few arguments you could make here or there-Bobby Livingston’s change isn’t that far from Jimenez’s, for instance-but overall, I agree with most of it. Probably the one I’d agree with the least is Jamal Strong, best defensive outfielder. He doesn’t cover as much ground as you’d hope, and he’s got a nothing arm.
#12 Ha! My efforts are paying off… nah, he doesn’t have the eye Gar has or at least didn’t display quite that much at Inland, but I still kind of compare the two based on their overachieving…
#16 What impresses me most about him is his SB totals. At first it doesn’t seem that eye popping, but 25, in a short season league, while missing time to the Olympics? The doubles aren’t bad either.
#19 I’ve heard similar things and that combo is more than shudder worthy.
#30 Rumors is he has a curve/slurve type thing going on now. Wonder how that will work out for him…
On a follow-up note, who do you think is the best defensive OF in the system? I didn’t necessarily agree with Strong as the choice either, but I’m just curious as to your thoughts on this one.
Always enjoy perusing the Future Forty. Thanks for putting it out there.
My question is simple: How do you think the M’s farm system compares to other MLB teams? I would be interested in your views both from a depth perspective and from a quality of the top few prospects perspective.
My sense is that Felix is about as good as it gets but beyond him, the M’s are pretty thin. This group must rank in the bottom half of MLB at this point….
Jermaine Brock, the M’s 6th round pick in last summers draft, can really fly, and he’s got a better arm than Strong. And, we haven’t seen him play stateside yet, but some of the scouting reports on Sebastian Boucher have some pretty lofty praise for his defensive abilities.
Thanks, Dave. Didn’t mean to imply I wasn’t asking respectfully for your answers. I appreciate the effort.
Yeah, I’d heard that about Nottingham. I have a writer friend from The Herald in Everett who said about him: “You remember Beavis and Butt-head? He’s both.”
The M’s current group of prospects isn’t very good relative to the rest of MLB. Eyeballing it, they’re probably in the 20-25 range, and if you take away Felix, they’re fighting St. Louis for the worst system in the game. This is, however, with the caveat that Lopez, Nageotte, Sherrill, Madritsch, and Putz aren’t “prospects” anymore, though they’re obviously still youngish players who can help the franchise. When we evaluate farm systems, we have to draw the line somewhere, so I do it with rookie eligibility; in this case, it short shifts the M’s talent a bit.
I actually think the system has a good amount of depth. There are a ton of might-be-major-leaguers, especially on the mound. There’s a big lack of projectable everyday players, but most organizations don’t have as many guys who might make it as the M’s do.
And, obviously, having the best pitching prospect in the game helps a lot. Divisionally, the Angels pretty clearly have the best system around right now and probably the best in the majors, Oakland restocked with their offseason trades, then comes us, than Texas.
Where would you rank our new Cuban IF, based on the little you know at this point?
Where would you rank our new Cuban IF, based on the little you know at this point?
As I noted in the second to last paragraph in the post, I wouldn’t, because it wouldn’t mean anything. We don’t have nearly enough information to make any kind of assertion more firm than “he’s a Mariner”.
I agree with your analysis of the M’s system. Pretty deep, but lacking in impact players (with the exception of King Felix). Seems like it would be much better to have 4-5 potential high impact players and then a bunch of scrubs.
On an unrelated note, what ever happened to Sam Hays? Is he still considered a prospect?
Sam Hays blew out his arm. I’m pretty sure he’s no longer with the organization, though I’m not 100 % certain.
Adam Jones —
SS or Pitcher? Where is his future?
Thankfully, those aren’t my only two options. If I was going to do a spectrum projection of the possibilities of where I think Jones will spend the majority of his major league career, it would probably look something like this:
Center Field: 40 %
Third Base: 25 %
Shorstop: 20 %
Pitcher: 10 %
Second Base: 5 %
At this point, it doesn’t seem like the organization is interested in putting him back on the hill unless his bat absolutely falls apart.
Dave,
It will be really interesting to see how Betancourt does in spring training. I guess that the best indication of how he will do in relation to US competition is the M’s decision to start him at San Antonio. If he is 20, then he would be fairly young (or at least not old) for that level. Let’s hope that the M’s are being cautious instead of overestimating him. But the fact that they think that he can handle that level has to be seen as a good sign, no?
Nice to see the updated list. Like MarinerDan, I was also wondering how you would rate the M’s farm system overall. I was looking at Sports Weekly, and they rated the M’s #2 in baseball, behind Oakland. I found this odd, since I would have figured that the Twins, Brewers, Devil Rays, a few other teams would be higher. With Felix and Reed, we have two guys that are pretty high profile. But so does Anahiem, with Kotchman, McPhearson, and a few other good guys. The BA rankings aren’t out yet, and it will be interesting to see where the M’s stack up. Since you seem to differ with the more scouting/tools oriented rankings, I was wondering what your thoughts were on this.
I was a little surprised that you have Livingston so high, and above Cabrera. Does this reflect badly on Cabrera or do you like Livingston. From your comments, I would have to think that you are not too stoked about Livingston, but your other comments on Cabrera were pretty positive.
Finally, you clearly don’t like raw, athletic players very well. Or, at least, you don’t see the need to rank them higher than less gifted but more disciplined hitters. I was wondering what your thoughts are on Tui, Jones, and Balentien. I know that it is pretty early to get an idea of Tuiasosopo’s talent, but the other two have had some time in full season ball. These three are usually ranked pretty high in other scouting reports. Do you see these guys as too raw at this point, or do you just think that they are not likely to be good ML players. In a similar vein, could you explain why you like Guzman and Craig so much. I know that you like Craigs plate discipline, but why don’t other sources seem to even acknowledge him?
By the way, this is the first time that I have read a positive comment in regards Jones. Are you starting to warm up to him? Whenever I look at his stats, I think that he is not really that impressive. However, he did improve over the course of the year, and was pretty young for Wisconsin. He could be a pretty nice CFer if he matures as a hitter a little bit. Perhaps the second coming of Cameron?
One more thing. Since we are on the topic of the farm system, and BA is doing their early draft discussion, I was wondering if you guys have any pieces in the works for the draft? I know that it is early, but this is a slow time for news.
Ryan Anderson no longer cracks the top 40? I know injuries have killed him, but I can see him making a quality reliever one day…..some of those guys at the bottom I don’t see making it.
Anderson hasn’t pitched in years. There’s no evidence he will pitch at all, much less pitch well, much less pitch well enough to be a quality reliever. I’m sorry to keep beating this, but he’s got a long way to go to even be considered any kind of prospect.
Was Sam Hays ever considered a prospect? It seems like his chances of making it dissapeared faster than even Michael “genetics only mean so much” Garciaparra.
Dave,
One name I remember from the past is Jeff Flaig. Is he still in the organization? I didn’t see his name on the Big Board. How’s his shoulder?
Thanks! 🙂
What is a likely scenario for Reed getting a starting position out of ST?
I also had two questions that were posed above. Namely, Sports Weekly’s two interesting statements: 1)Wladimir as the #2 hitter in our system behind Reed, 2)The Mariners system ranked #2 OVERALL, not just in the AL West.
I guess if I were to answer my own questions, I would say that their writers 1)really like power-hitting potential, 2)weigh premium prospects (Felix, Reed) as more important than overall depth.
Any thoughts?
(Is the answer: “Sports Weekly is weak” ?)
The M’s current group of prospects isn’t very good relative to the rest of MLB. Eyeballing it, they’re probably in the 20-25 range, and if you take away Felix, they’re fighting St. Louis for the worst system in the game. This is, however, with the caveat that Lopez, Nageotte, Sherrill, Madritsch, and Putz aren’t “prospects†anymore, though they’re obviously still youngish players who can help the franchise. When we evaluate farm systems, we have to draw the line somewhere, so I do it with rookie eligibility; in this case, it short shifts the M’s talent a bit.
I actually think the system has a good amount of depth. There are a ton of might-be-major-leaguers, especially on the mound. There’s a big lack of projectable everyday players, but most organizations don’t have as many guys who might make it as the M’s do.
And, obviously, having the best pitching prospect in the game helps a lot. Divisionally, the Angels pretty clearly have the best system around right now and probably the best in the majors, Oakland restocked with their offseason trades, then comes us, than Texas.
Dave – Did you by chance see Sports Weekly’s AL West top prospect rankings? If you didn’t, they ranked Oakland 1st in MLB, Seattle 2nd in MLB, Texas tied for 4th in MLB and Anaheim 20th. What gives? I mean, I tend to believe you – because I know how much time/energy you invest into studying prospects. Of course there is some subjectivity in the process, but you’d think that a national sports publication (that used to be baseball-only) would come closer to the general consensus.
Another question for you: Is Ted Heid still with the organization? He’s not on the Mariners’ web site in the front office section…
Thanks for the update! Great work! A whole new batch of people to keep eye on and make mere baseball game watchers say, “Who?”
Um, one question though.
When I read comments like, “Only $4.95 plus shipping.” about someone who is supposed to be the 36th best prospect in the organization, I wonder two things: “Then why isn’t he lower than 36?” AND “Geez! What are you saying about prospects 41-100?”
On a related topic (prospects in general), it looks like Sickels will have a daily blog site up in a couple weeks. I have always liked his stuff, and it will be nice to still read his opinions/projections, even if ESPN didn’t want him anymore.
I know this is about the minor leaguers but it is also about the future. What do you guys think of Koji Uehara? He is very serious about coming to the states to pitch in 2006. Here is a link to his stats: http://japanesebaseball.com/players/player.jsp?PlayerID=1071 . Pretty good I think, even if he will be 30.
Whoa… Felix is actually younger than Asdrubal Cabrera. (Not that it should be a great shock, of course, as their Everett years were back-to-back; but I’ve gotten so used to thinking of Felix as “AA guy on the verge of the majors” that his days in aqua seem a dim memory.)
Re. Leone: Yeah, I suppose a chance to start would be in his best interest; but until a good trade offer comes along, I’d rather enjoy seeing him as sort of a Tony Phillips*-type all-purpose 3B/2B/SS?/LF/RF guy who can hit enough to fit respectably into the lineup.
* (without the occasional tendency to go after the pivot man’s ACL, I trust; but you knew what I meant)
Re. Jon Nelson: I remember when he was with Everett he seemed to have trouble picking up the breaking ball. I mean, I’m the farthest thing from being a qualified scout, and I could even tell some guys were making him look *bad*. Any word on whether he’s worked that out? (Or was the “grip-and-rip” quip intended to answer that in the negative?)
Would have been nice to hear something about Betancourt, had that been possible; but I agree than an uninformed opinion is worse than none at all, and will be content to wait until we can get something based on real information.
Interesting to see Craig ahead of Tui, given that they’ve both gotten to the same level, and that Tui’s edge in tools seems (to me at least) like it would outweigh Craig’s in performance record.
Thanks for the update, Dave!
I’d be particularly interested in your thoughts about Choo’s ETA and, more importantly, impact and chance to start at the major league level in 2006 or 2007? Seems like he’s always handled himself well so far in the minors.
There are a lot of backed up questions already, and mine isn’t exactly relevant to the future of the Mariners, so I will understand if it isn’t answered, but because I’m curious and someone might know the answer, I will ask anyway:
I always wonder about pitching prospects like Roger Salkeld who look like the second coming, and are reated accordingly, till their arms blow out. Ryan Anderson is the latest. One of the things I wonder is, how much money did the Mariners commit to Ryan Anderson without him ever pitching a major league game? If he never does anything more for this organization, how much did he earn?
Is your impending excitement about Asdrubal Cabrera because of his defense, or does he project to perform significantly better with the bat in future years? His offensive stats in short-season were underwhelming.
On number 37..Hunter Brown..Why don’t the scouts like him? I’ve seen him play at San Antonio and believe that he’s a serious contender both with the bat and fielding, he can definitely pick it. He’s big and has decent speed and his walk to strike out ratio is good. He shows some power and had a batting average over .285. What’s not to like? I thought I heard rumor of making him a Jeff Kent type second baseman. Is that still in Seattle’s plans? Incidentally, why didn’t TJ Bohn make the list? Of the outfielders I saw at San Antonio, He had the best arm and could really cover some ground.
Thanks,
Robert Ruble
KC Mo
Hi, Dave… Long time listener… blah, blah, blah. (I just had to go there, Jim).
First off, sorry to be the typo police, but you should check Cabrera’s listing. 😉
Since you had less-than-glowing things to say about the last three guys on the list, I was wondering why you’d list them instead of OFs Greg Jacobs, Dustin Delucchi, Gary Harris and, last but most importantly, T.J. Bohn.
None are sure-thing prospects, especially with the glut of OFs in the system right now, but I’m sure you could say more than one word about them (ahem… Mark Lowe).
Also… so Nageotte’s not a rookie but Thornton still is? How does that work?
And once you click on one of thi links that takes you to the player’s BA page, the link becomes very small. I’m sure you had a good reason to do that, but the tiny purple makes it hard to read surrounded by all that big blue.
Keep up the good work.
oh, yeah… typo police again. I’m pointing this out under the express knowledge that this might have been intentional on your part and will beget much background chuckling on your and the other USSM boys’ part, but under your disclaimer you misspell alteration incorrectly. Unless you meant Distribution and or fluctuation is expressly forbidded by the author. 😉
Jeff Heaverlo, where are you?
Maybe someone can send Brent Johnson a copy of Grip-it-and-Rip-it with Wlad.
#16–“It will be really interesting to see how Betancourt does in spring training. I guess that the best indication of how he will do in relation to US competition is the M’s decision to start him at San Antonio. If he is 20, then he would be fairly young (or at least not old) for that level. Let’s hope that the M’s are being cautious instead of overestimating him. But the fact that they think that he can handle that level has to be seen as a good sign, no?”–Comment by Jerry — 2/1/2005 @ 8:37 pm
He is supposedly 22, right? IIRC, Bavasi seemed to think of him as the equivalent of a college draftee. In response to a question at Fanfest, the Chuckster implied they were sending him to AA because he hadn’t played in so long rather than due to worry about his ability to handle US competition….
re: Betancourt… Will he be at Spring Training with the big club, at the minor-league complex… or at all? I wasn’t sure if there were visa problems or anything that could prevent him from being with the Mariners in time to get a read on his development level before they slot everyone in the organization. Depending on where Michael Morse and Ismael Castro land, I don’t think there would have to be much shuffling for him to play in San Antonio as their shortstop.
Couldn’t you solve the Betancourt problem with error bars? “Betancourt, #20 +/- 18.” “Hernandez, #1 +/-0”
Felix Hernandez was six months old when that ball went through Buckner’s legs in the ’86 World Series.
How can I possibly be this old?
Did you by chance see Sports Weekly’s AL West top prospect rankings? If you didn’t, they ranked Oakland 1st in MLB, Seattle 2nd in MLB, Texas tied for 4th in MLB and Anaheim 20th. What gives?
Sports Weekly also has Dan Johnson as the A’s best hitter, above Barton and Swisher, and has Knox as their best pitcher, above Blanton and Meyer. They have Francoeur above Marte for Atlanta, Botts as the best hitter for Texas, above Gonzalez and Kinsler, and the list goes on and on. Their rankings are ridiculous.
re: #26: It will be a shock if the Yomiuri Giants let go of Uehara, despite his goals to play in the US. In 2003, I watched Uehara fan Barry Bonds THREE TIMES in ONE GAME during the MLB All-Stars tour of Tokyo. If you want a testimonial to Uehara, just look up the MLB article posted this summer when Clemens took Uehara aside and brought him on one of his hell-level workouts. If, in some odd universe, the M’s could get Matsuzaka and Uehara, and Daisuke hasn’t blown out his arm from that monstrous Gyro-ball by that point, it would not be odd to see the M’s in the World Series. Uehara/Matsuzaka/Piniero/Madritch/Moyer…. Both boys just tore apart MLB lineups during multiple past all-star series.
It doesn’t look like either Uehara or Hanshin Tigers ace Kei Igawa will get permission to leave Japan. The Daily Yomiuri reported on Jan. 19 (link is dead, sorry), that both the Tigers and the Giants have flat refused to let their respective top starters go to the states via the posting system.
It’s too bad for us here in the U.S., because I think both are very intriguing.
#33 “…but under your disclaimer you misspell alteration incorrectly…”
can you misspell something correctly? 🙂
Okay, catch up time. I’m sure I’m going to miss some, so either point it out again, or send me an email.
The Sports Weekly rankings were insane. Just pure awfulness. Ignore them.
I was a little surprised that you have Livingston so high, and above Cabrera. Does this reflect badly on Cabrera or do you like Livingston. From your comments, I would have to think that you are not too stoked about Livingston, but your other comments on Cabrera were pretty positive.
Cabrera has a half season of experience in the states. Livingston has two and a half years of performance to evaluate. I like Cabrera’s potential more, but Livingston is still the more likely player to make the majors. I’m not ranking players simply by ceiling; you have to factor in likelyhood to reach that ceiling, and that gives more polished players like Livingston the edge.
Finally, you clearly don’t like raw, athletic players very well.
I have Asdrubal Cabrera in the top 10 despite never playing full season ball. So, I disagree, obviously.
One name I remember from the past is Jeff Flaig. Is he still in the organization? I didn’t see his name on the Big Board.
He’s still with the club, but his shoulder recovery hasn’t gone well. He was a high risk, high reward pick, and it looks like this ones falling on the side of too much risk.
I’d be particularly interested in your thoughts about Choo’s ETA and, more importantly, impact and chance to start at the major league level in 2006 or 2007? Seems like he’s always handled himself well so far in the minors.
I think Choo needs a full year of Triple-A, and maybe a year and a half. He’s still got some flaws in his swing, and he’s got some work to do defensively. I’m not a huge Choo guy. I think his career is going to look like Mark Kotsay’s offensively. Not bad, but probably labeled a disappointment.
Is your impending excitement about Asdrubal Cabrera because of his defense, or does he project to perform significantly better with the bat in future years? His offensive stats in short-season were underwhelming.
Cabrera can really pick it at short, and there’s juice in his bat too. He’s got a chance to be an Orlando Cabrera/Edgar Renteria type shortstop.
On number 37..Hunter Brown..Why don’t the scouts like him?
Slow bat speed. They expect him to get eaten up by major league fastballs.
Since you had less-than-glowing things to say about the last three guys on the list, I was wondering why you’d list them instead of OFs Greg Jacobs, Dustin Delucchi, Gary Harris and, last but most importantly, T.J. Bohn
Jacobs has some off the field issues, and he’s got almost no shot to break in with the organization while he’s still in his prime. Delucchi and Harris just don’t have the bats for the big leagues. Bohn could be a reserve, as he’s got a little pop and a strong arm, but he’s not going to hit enough to be more than a 25th man on a good team, and he’s basically as good as he’s going to get.