Sickels on the M’s
Dave · February 22, 2005 at 8:09 pm · Filed Under Mariners
John Sickels posted his ranking of the M’s Top 20 prospects over at his new blog. It’s pretty similar to the Future Forty, with a few differences, but there’s also some pretty solid discussion about Felix and Madritsch in the comments below, so I figured I’d link to it for you guys. Enjoy.
Comments
9 Responses to “Sickels on the M’s”
Interesting stuff. Sickels seems fairly optimistic about Betancourt and Campillo. Thanks for the link, Dave.
Great link. OT, Niehuas didn’t get the Frick Award, Jerry Coleman of the Padres did. To which all I can say is, “whatchoo talking ’bout, Coleman?”
Dave,
I have always liked reading Sickels articles, as I have mentioned before. When I read some of your comments on his site, regarding the Mariners, it seemed at first that you were upstaging him.
After looking back, what is really happening, is you are more knowledgeable on the details.
I hope this doesnt happen, but I think Sickels’ site might end up hurting his reputation as an excellent scout, simply because he must be more general – covering every team – and then gets critiqued by those who focus on one team.
Another point it demonstrates is that Sickels has a really good grasp of the top prospects, and gives good predictions on their future big league value, but a more general knowledge of the “grade C” guys.
What do you think, Dave?
I agree with what you’re saying, chickenhawk. Sickels does good work, obviously, but there have been a couple instances where someone has aksed him why Player X is ranked Y, and his answer comes down to “It’s a gut feeling”.
When you’re looking at every system, there are going to be times where you have to do something like that; it’s not like he can watch video of every game played in the minors. But it doesn’t sound particularly good. Give out a useless stat or something, like he had 3 more hits with RISP than the guy right below him.
Doesn’t affect my view of him, and I hope it’s the same with others.
when you get down to scouting minor league players, it almost always come down to “gut feelings.” As dave and john mentioned in that thread, their rankings aren’t really that far off. Dave mentioned that he gets most of his information from a network of players, scouts, executives, etc. as well as any statistical information he can find. Minor league stats are not as intuitive as major league ones, so a lot of the minor league impressions dave gets is still from scouts, players, etc. That is to say, a lot of watching and “gut feelings.” Sure, Dave might try to combine all this information, and use some average, or at least non-contradictory info. But the fact of the matter is that if there is one scout who is really a lot better than everyone else because his eye is better or his “gut feeling” is better, then he’ll be more on target than anyone else. Averaging opinions gets you a safer pick, but not necessarily a more accurate one.
A funny side note on a Mariner prospect discussed by Sickel and Dave:
(from MLB.com)
Swing and a miss: Of the players in camp, Matt Tuiasosopo has the most difficult name to spell. But the folks at Louisville Slugger went a step further and added a few letters to Matt’s last name.
The organization’s first draft choice last year received a dozen bats the other day and the name on every one of them was “Matt Tuiasosopopopo.” He now has a nickname: Popo.
Just out of curiosity, what happened to Jose Lopez? It doesn’t look like he’ll break camp with the team at this point, so where does he fit on the ‘forty’ now?
Yes, I was wondering what the status of Lopez is as well regarding the Future Forty.
I believe (per Dave) that players who no longer qualify as rookies are not eligible for his future forty list.
So Lopez won’t be on the list, but I suspect he’d be in the top 5 (and perhaps #2) if eligible.