Position Roundtables: Right Field
Jeff: Starting Right Fielder: Ichiro
My first car was a Volkswagen Fastback. Vintage 1969, one of the first
years they put an automatic transmission in the terrapin of
fahrvergnugen, so there were bugs aplenty. The muffler fell off from
time to time. The door panels were rotting. Once, a heating vent stuck
open, bathing passengers in heat during dead summer.
That car was a heap. But I loved it.
Most of all, I loved the stereo I’d installed myself — the only part
that always worked. When the transmission gave out, I could at least
sit in the driveway and pretend I had a way out of my hometown. In a
way, I did, but it was Guided by Voices, Dinosaur Jr. and Husker Du
that were paving the way, not my green given-up-the-ghost car.
In a lineup that has seen a real overhaul, Ichiro is the one part that
you pencil in from last year and expect great things from. This should
be the easiest roundtable, but it isn’t.
What is there left to say about Ichiro? Dave touched on his unbelievable 2004. Derek has noted how unique he is and considered a Hall of Fame case. Nate Silver admits that he throws PECOTA for a loop.
How about, as Larry Stone mentions, that he appears to be the most likely player to make a run at .400? No, we can’t talk about that: if a respected baseball writer is openly musing about Ted Williams territory (and Dimaggio’s 56-game streak), that territory has to be played out. Right?
That’s Ichiro. The stupefying becomes conceivable, the incredible
becomes commonplace.
Well, we could speculate about No. 51 breaking the Mariner record for
runs in a season now that he’ll be batting in front of Beltre and
Sexson. Oops: it’s been done, with John Hickey even discussing the major-league
run records as well.
Now, I’m not necessarily saying that Ichiro will come through with
another record-setting performance this year, and neither are the
authors of any of the pieces I’ve linked to. That’s the point of his
forecast-busting nature. No one really knows what the guy is going to
do.
What we do know is what to do with Ichiro: plug him in, watch him,
enjoy. Lather, rinse, repeat.
Dave: Umm, what Jeff said.
Seriously, Ichiro is awesome. He’s a remarkably valuable player, extremely unique, exciting, and marketable, all rolled into one mini package. Ichiro makes going to the ballpark more fun in a way that other great players don’t. The Ichiro experince goes beyond his BA/OBP/SLG and and the tangible value of his production. Ichiro is great for the game. Ichiro is great for Seattle.
I-chi-ro. I-chi-ro. I-chi-ro.
Jason: Jeff didn’t find one of my posts to quote… but then, I guess I haven’t gushed about Ichiro here on the USSM. I knew I had somewhere, though, so I did some digging. Ah yes, here it is, the August 2003 issue of the Grand Salami.
By the time 2002 rolled around, all was right with the world. Ichiro was seemingly having an even better season, hitting .357 at the All-Star break. He was even drawing more walks, having eclipsed his total from the previous season in just 62 games, leading to a stellar .430 on-base percentage. What was I thinking, having doubted this guy?
Then the second half came. Ichiro hit .282 in August and just .248 in September, dropping his average 36 points after the break. He also stopped walks, and when he did get on base he wouldn’t attempt to steal second base even in a close game. Again, I wondered if this guy was all he was cracked up to be. In his defense, it turned out he had never fully recovered from an injury suffered when he ran into the outfield wall in Oakland late in the year, but still…
Given his performance in the second half of 2002 you can imagine my angst when he started slowly this year, hitting just .243 in April. I wondered aloud—and wrote as much in this very magazine—if Ichiro’s star was beginning to fade. He seemed ordinary, no longer the dynamic offensive catalyst he once was. After all, he was hitting a mere .258 over his last 300-plus at-bats, and it’s not as if he was making up for it with power or walks.
I’m happy to say that’s the last time I’ll ever doubt Ichiro. He quieted me in May by hitting .389 with four homers. He shut me up in June by hitting .386 with ten steals and two more homers. And just for good measure, he smacked me silly in July by hitting well over .400 in the ten games leading up to the All-Star break.
Don’t doubt him. Don’t knock him. Just when you think he’s down, he’ll whiz a line drive single past your ear. Ichiro, you the man.
Should he play center? Yeah, sure. Should he walk a bit more? Yeah, probably. But c’mon. Given all the good he does — and the problems elsewhere on the team — it’s hardly worth wasting words on such minor quibbles.
Comments
87 Responses to “Position Roundtables: Right Field”
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Think how much *more* valuable he’d be if he’d move over to CF. I love him, and agree he’s the best thing the Ms have going, and one of the best things going in baseball in general, but man… that’s the one frustrating part of the Ichiro package.
What can one say about Ichiro that hasn’t been said in a multitude of fashions and languages?
I guess the only question is how long can he keep this level of production going?
Ichiro’s not exactly a spring-chicken at 30+, and while he’s just as unique a player as say–Barry Bonds, his skill sets (contact, speed) don’t exactly project as well long-term as someone whose OBP and SLG is based more on his propensity to knock balls over a wall and hobble around the bases.
I agree. Can you point me to some discussion that you’ve had with Ichiro not being in CF. In the whole history of baseball, has there ever been a bigger discrepancy between the fielding talent of a RF and CF than Ichiro and not-Cameron? This reminds me of Jeter/ARod. Are Jeter/Ichiro so beloved that their ego gets in the way of the manager?
Is this a “position roundtable” or a “position soliloquy”?
Since we’re discussing Ichiro, I suppose I shouldn’t be surprised that normal assumptions are abeyant.
Guided by Voices, Dinosaur Jr. and Husker Du
Nice choices. Takes me back.
There’s no way you can compare Ichiro with Derek “past-a-diving” Jeter. Jeter’s popularity is genuine, but his play is not nearly to the level of Ichiro – it’s a creation of a media starving for an iconic Yankee hero like they had in the days of yore.
Jeter’s not even the best shortstop on the Yankees, much less baseball; Ichiro set the record for most hits in a season last year, and is probably gonna come close to that again this year. Oh, and I hear he can play some defense, too.
With Ichiro’s wheels, he could probably play CF (especially Safeco’s spacious CF) as effortlessly as he does right; with the (hopeful) emergence of Jeremy Reed, though, he doesn’t need to. Last year would have been the time to put Ichiro in CF.
I’m really looking forward to seeing Ichiro’s 200+ hits not get wasted, like they were last year. There should be guys on base when he hits, and there should be guys that can drive him in. This is gonna be fun.
We didn’t want to sully Jeff’s great prose with our thoughts. Or that’s the story we’re sticking to, anyways.
Ichiro as CF… yes, it would be in the best interest of the organization, but no, it isn’t going to happen.
What an evocative opening. I can just smell the oil burning in my rarely-working 1973 MGB and remember how proud I was of that car.
The thing that I have noticed about Ichiro was, last year, if I was leaving to go somewhere and I saw that he was coming up next inning, I would delay my exit until after his at-bat. I just love watching that little tap tap tap, then the bat pointing out.. strecth your back and .. smack.. foul one off. When he swings and misses, it is worth noting. What a unique player and a joy to watch.
Dave, right, I got that. But, why? I’m not from Seattle, so I can only guess that Ichiro is the most selfish player in baseball.
You guys did a great job on all the other positions, especially for a non-Mariner follower like me. I can take the excessive fawning if it was balanced with some sort of realism that he’s hurting his team by (seemingly) insisting on playing RF.
(Obviously 2004 would have been the perfect time to put Ichiro there.)
I mean if Ichiro were to be traded to the Yanks, would he continue to insist that he play RF, and they’d have to move Matsui to CF, and Sheff to LF?
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Paul, if Beltran was on the Mariners instead of Ichiro, would you still “hope” that Reed play a good CF, and leave Beltran in RF? No, of course not. You put your best fielder in CF, especially if he’s got the wheels. Unless Ichiro has some vision problems that require him in the corner.
C’mon guys… don’t turn into Jeter-type apologists here. There’s plenty of message boards where St Ichiro and St Jeter are untouchable.
The most selfish player in baseball? I can’t imagine anyone is close to eclisping Sammy Sosa, no matter how hard they try.
We don’t know why Ichiro in CF has never been given much consideration. The team won’t really talk about it. None of the beat writers ever question him about it. I’m not comfortable making the leap from “we don’t know” to “it’s obvious Ichiro refuses to”. I’d prefer to avoid assailing someone’s character in any regards, but to do so based on a lack of knowledge isn’t something I’m interested in doing.
And, really Tango, we’re coming off a 99 loss season. To expect us to criticize the one thing in the organization that went right is a little over the top, no?
Tango, you’ll hear many folks argue that Ichiro’s arm is more valuable in right than it would be in center. And when you see the respect he’s given by baserunners and third base coaches, it’s not an easy argument to put down.
Similarly, would Ichiro have moved to center if we had landed Vlad back in the day? I’ve always assumed so, but maybe I’m mistaken. I feel like there must be some questions about the readiness of Reed’s arm or the management would be pushing it harder. Although, I guess I have no idea how much the management may or may not be pushing it.
Anyway, you’re just going to raise people’s defenses here by comparing the situation to Jeter’s, because it’s not arrogance that keeps Ichiro in right; I think it’s much more likely genuine nervousness on both his part and the management. I don’t know if it’s fear that the best RF would transform into a merely very good CF, or if they’re worried that the loss of a perfect fit in right isn’t justified by the upgrade he would represent in center. I mean, gunning down those runners en route to 3rd is pretty important, and I don’t have a good read on how much worse Reed would be at that.
However, I do remember at some point last year an interview or something with Ichiro that said pretty clearly that he didn’t want to but would be willing to play center. So it’s about his comfort zone, and it seems to me that the management is choosing not to upset that. But Choo is natural RFer too, so I wonder if their hand won’t be forced eventually. I wish they’d done it as soon as they brought up Reed (because Winn obviously couldn’t play right) but I have to assume that there are good reasons it didn’t happen.
Also, Tango, you can find some old discussion on the “move Ichicro to CF” topic in the USSM archives for April, 2004. There was even a mainstream piece discussing it as a possibility.
Dave, fair enough regarding the jumping to conclusions. I’ll respect your opinion to not criticize Ichiro fairly because of your fan interest, without my accepting that I was “over the top”. (I would never criticize Tim Raines, no matter what he did.)
Bill, yes, it is an easy argument to put down. Is this the proper place to do so?
Jesse, it would be interesting if it was genuine nervousness. Was he always a RF in Japan? I have to believe that as a teenager, he must have been CF. Heck, growing up, most hitters are RH, so if anything, he might have been in LF. RF is where we stuck the guy who couldn’t catch. So, at some point in his life he went from being a LF/CF to a full-time RF. When did that happen, and why? How can a perfect fielder find it uncomfortable to play CF?
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Good point if Seattle signed Vlad.
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I look at Ichiro as the perfect physical fielder. A full-time player like that is either SS or CF, without hardly any exception. To me, it’d be like having Ozzie Smith at 2B.
Tango,
To state that its my right to “not criticize Ichiro fairly” appears to me that you believe that its clear that Ichiro not moving to CF is all Ichiro’s doing. If you have some evidence of that, well, feel free to present it.
I’m not withholding criticism because I like the guy. I’m withholding criticism because I simply don’t have any idea why the organization won’t consider moving him to center field. We just don’t know. To me, caution is the better part of valor, here. In the face of a lack of knowledge, err on the side of not aasailing someone’s character, like you are apparently more than willing to do.
And yes, this is the perfect thread to shoot down the Ichiro’s-Arm-Is-Great theory. We’re on your side on that one. Pretty much any Ichiro-centric talk is on topic here.
Tango –
If Beltran was on the M’s, we’re having a different discussion.
If frogs had wings…well, you get the gist. I prefer to deal with what is, not what may/should/could have been, and what is, to me, is that Ichiro has earned the right to say “I want to stay in right field”.
I’m no Ichiro apologist, I don’t have blinders on, but by that same token I’m not sure he’s done anything that warrants a move to center just because he “might” be a better fit there. He fits pretty well in right, from what I’ve seen. Why mess with it if they don’t need to?
We all saw what happened last year when Molitor tried to “mess” with Ichiro at the plate, and have him be more patient and selective – he got off to a horrendous start in the spring. I don’t know if moving to CF would shake his comfort zone that much, but as he’s a huge asset in RF, why the need to find out right now? Let him play where he’s happy. What’s the harm?
Plus, what Dave said.
Tomorrow’s New York Times has a story pushing the “Ichiro goes for .400″ angle. You can get it without registering at the Int’l Herald Tribune website here.
I looked in the archives, and the closest I can find was something at 4/24/2004: http://ussmariner.com/index.php?m=200404 , but comments seem to be turned off.
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Dave, I agreed that I should not have attacked his character, which is what my first line in post #15 refers to. It probably was not clear.
It may be apparent to you that I am more than willing to attack someone’s character, but this is not my normal manner. Small sample size, et al
While caution may be the better part of valor, the best thing would be to get on the case of the Mariner media. The question should be the centrepiece of why Ichiro is not in CF. Heck, the NY media makes a humongous deal on Beltran in CF and Cameron in RF, and you are talking about two super fielders, where you can reasonably argue the setup either way. So, with a reasonable argument, the Mets media makes a big deal of it. Imagine something unreasonable like Ichiro and anyone not named Cameron.
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Paul, your comment about “Ichiro has earned the right…” is exactly the argument that Jeter’s fans give on his not moving off SS.
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There’s a big difference between changing a hitter’s approach and mechanics, versus moving a guy from RF to CF.
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My point with the “what if” is “what would it take to get Ichiro to play CF”? Is getting Vlad or Sheffield the only way?
Makes my 1980 Toyota Crapolla sound like a luxury car. Had to replace fan belts and the bracket that held the alternator to the engine just about once a month. The tape player, when it worked though, wasn’t quite filled with Husker Du. I had the occasional Savatage in, but mostly it was Depeche Mode.
Oh, yeah, we’re supposed to be waxing Ichiroic, not waxing nostalgic.
Well, except Ichiro seems to be bringing baseball back around. Like Tony Gwynn, Wade Boggs and Rod Carew before him, he’s reminding people of the baseball that was played before Babe Ruth (though I’d argue a little moreso than those other three). He’s reminding people that Ty Cobb, Nap Lajoie, Wee Willie Keeler, Joe Jackson, and, oh yeah, George Sisler were pretty big stars in the days before Ruth. Of course, Ruth changed baseball forever, and made baseball a little more palatable for the common fan. But I’d love to take Marty McFly’s Delorean back to the turn of the 20th Century and see a game with Honus Wagner’s Pittsburg Pirates getting beat up by Wee Willie’s Brooklyn Superbas.
Of course, I’d probably bring a few tobacco cards back with me…
Paul, I can see where you’re coming from, but what better time to try it out than right now? I know we’re all hoping that we can contend this year, but most of us are at least a little skeptical it could happen. So isn’t right now the best time to see if it’s a better outfield if we switch Reed and Ichiro? The press would be unbelievable, the M’s would be all over ESPN. I get goosebumps just thinking about it. It’s some Luke Skywalker, Sword in the Stone, chosen-one sh*t…OK, got carried away for a second…bring it back.
Hargrove MUST be curious what the outfield defense would look like if he switched those two players. I’m not sure, but I feel like we might become the best defense in baseball. So can’t someone just convince Ichiro to give it a shot? Explain to him how much it would help cement his legacy? I’m not sure at this point there’s anything else that could really ease my nostalgia for Cameron (pre-2004 Cameron, I’m agree with most of the readers here it wouldn’t make sense to bring him back now).
Come on Ichiro, take up the mantle. Become who you were born to be.
I do not know how much bearing this has, but Ichiro has played center in the last two all-star games. He clearly didn’t tell the AL managers that he would be unwilling to play in a high-profile game at a position which is slightly unfamiliar to him.
If I had to hazzard a guess, I would say that Ichiro stayed in right after Cammy left because the M’s, and Melvin especially, were comfortable with the known quantity of Ichiro’s defense in RF, and Ichiro, being comfortable in RF, never ventured to insist that he play CF.
There is an Ichiro article (regarding hitting .400, mostly) in today’s NYT online. I’m not sure how linking works with registered sites, so I’ll leave it for others to find.
Well, I’ll tell you right now that if the media asked Hargrove why Ichiro is in RF based on the current roster assembled, the answer would be “who else am I going to stick there?” Winn and Reed have barely passable arms for CF, and there’s not an organization in baseball that would stick either one in right field. The only other capable candidate, by current MLB arm strength standards, is Raul Ibanez, who is by far the worst defensive outfielder on the team. If moving Ichiro to CF involves DH’ing Winn or Reed and sticking Ibanez in RF, I’d imagine the overall net gain would be a negative. The team’s defense is almost certainly worse with any alignment of Reed-Ichiro-Ibanez than it is with any alignment of Reed-Ichiro-Winn.
The question is valid for roster construction; i.e., if the M’s had a chance to obtain a superstar RF, would they consider moving Ichiro to CF. For the 2005 Mariners, though, they have an outfield consisting of two noodle arms, one lead foot, and Ichiro. Vladimir Guerrero and Gary Sheffield aren’t on the team, so moving Ichiro to make room for them isn’t really relevant to this discussion.
For this team, right now, the question is how much better would they be with Ichiro in center and Ibanez in right instead of Reed in center and Ichiro in right. I’m guessing the difference would either be negligible or even negative.
Andy: scope post # 19.
I’ve been meaning to go around registering in the USSM name at commonly linked sites. I’ll do that in the next week or so so we have a common login to use.
Ok, now let’s talk about the value of an arm in RF compared to CF. In all cases, I will give the benefit of the doubt to Ichiro in RF.
About 30% of all PAs has a runner on 1B. An OF single is hit in about 14% of all PAs. Let’s say that one-third are hit to CF and one-third to RF. (If you have more accurate numbers, please chime in.) There are about 40 PAs per game.
So, this gives us: 162 * 40 * .3 * .14 * .333 = 91
That means 91 times, the RF or CF’s arms are in play.
I figure that 15% of the time, any runner can make it to 3B, regardless of the arm strength, and another 35% of the time that no runner can make it to 3B, regardless of their speed. That gives us 50% of the time when the OF arm is *really* in play with a runner on 1B. That’s 45 times.
Now, let’s compare Ichiro to an average RF arm. Let’s say that the average RF allows the runner to get to 3B 15 times, throws him out at 3B 5 times, and holds him another 25 times. What does Ichiro do? Let’s give him 5,10,30. Seems fair?
Now, we need to quantify that in runs. A runner at 2B will score 43% of the time, a runner at 3B will score 60% of the time, and a runner thrown out will score 0% of the time (obviously), plus he costs the hitting team an extra out in the inning, which is worth say 0.18 runs.
The average RF will have the runner in a position to score .60*15 + .43*25 = 19.75 runs and the 5 extra outs are worth 0.90 runs, so that works out to 19 runs allowed.
Ichiro will be .60*5+.43*30 = 15.9 runs and the 10 extra outs are worth 1.80 runs, so that works out to 14 runs allowed.
Conclusion: Ichiro’s arm in RF is worth about 5 runs above average.
Now, how much could it be worth in CF?
Let’s say that instead of 45 times that the RF arm is in play, we’ll make it only 35 times for a CF. Let’s say the average CF allows the runner to get to 3B 10 times, throws him out 3 times, and holds him another 22 times. For Ichiro, we’ll be modest, and say he allows the runner to get to 3B 7 times, throws him out 5 times, and holds him 23 times.
Work it out, and, conservatively, Ichiro’s arm in CF is worth 2 runs. I believe it would be worth more.
Anyway, so the value of his arm in RF, compared to CF, is 3 runs, at best. And more likely, it’s 1 run.
How much is his range worth? You make about 30 to 35% more plays in CF than RF. If he’s worth 20-25 runs above average fielding in RF, he’s worth 27 to 33 runs above average in CF. That’s a 7 to 8 run improvement.
Overall, shifting him to CF would add about 5 to 7 runs.
His legs come into play a few hundred times a year, but his arm comes into play a few dozen times a year. And when his arm comes into play, it’s the small difference of the base value of 2B to 3b (which is worth .17 runs). Turning a hit into an out is far more valuable.
My impression, from the few words I’ve heard from Ichiro on the subject, is that he simply prefers right field. It’s what he practices and what he’s perfected. I’m not sure he believes he’d be a very good CF. So, he’s willing to play CF for the good of the team, but he doesn’t think it would be good for the team to be there unless there really aren’t any other options. I just happen to disagree with Ichiro on this one…
I think #23 probably nails it. Cammy was here when Ichiro! first got here, so we didn’t even need to CONSIDER the idea of Ichiro going to CF, then once Cammy left Ichiro was already FIRMLY implanted in right. Not only as a slick fly ball catching, double stealing defender, but as one of THE MOST FEARED arms in the MLs. Most teams wont even try running on Ichiro out of principle. I have no statistical evidience of this at all, but I would say that saves at least a few extra bases a game, which IMO is a lot more important than having a CF that can get to a few extra fly balls. Plus the potential to get hurt (if you are going to play it correctly) is MUCH higher (just look at Griffy and Cammy), so my question isnt why doesn’t Ichiro go to CF, but why in the world would you want to move him there??
Does anyone know if the mariners will have any spring training games on tv this year? I can’t seem to find anyone showing spring training games but espn HD.. i dont think i can wait till april!
Brock, I replied to you in #27.
As well, MGL’s analysis of the play-by-play records of all fielders shows Ichiro’s arm is worth +2 runs above aveage from 2000-2003:
http://www.tangotiger.net/UZR0003.html
The leaders are: Hidlago +8, Larry Walker +7, Vlad +5. Bobby Higginson and Sammy Sosa bring up the rear.
MGL look at runners thrown out, and runners held.
Sorry, but the numbers don’t back up Ichiro…
I just checked out Ichiro’s 2005 PECOTA card (which isn’t fully updated with new charts, yet), but the 90th percentile projection has him playing 167 games in RF.
The weighted mean is 164 games in RF.
I found that amusing.
Fantasists! Silly fools, be gone! Next they will want to re-invent the Sun!
He plays deliciously in RF. He hits like no other man in the game. His style of play is disciplined, unique, and SYSTEMIC. Why would anyone fill his head with the concerns of another position? The game of ‘what if’ is amusing, I know, but wisdom leaves what flourishes alone. The road to Hell is paved with such vain tinkering.
For me, I love every move the man makes. He is the anti-power game, the anti-nebraska farm-boy; he is the measured gait to relieve of us from the army of swaggerers. His careful approach to every aspect of baseball is an inspiration (and one which has application outside the game, as well).
#31…
Interesting. So although Richard Hidalgo has only 2 assists and 1 double play more than Ichiro, he is apparently 4 times as good in the field? While committing twice as many errors in less games?
And really, when you look at any stat, ask yourself this: what does this really mean? For example, you mentioned runners thrown out and runners held. Well, runners thrown out is easy enough to divine, however, what does runners held mean? People who started to go but held up? Guys who didn’t go because they knew they’d get nailed? Guys who took half-hearted leads just for the heck of it?
Now, what I can tell you is, Hidalgo made 259 putouts, 14 assists, 3 double plays, and 6 errors in 132 starts in RF over the course of last year (along with 7 putouts in 5 games in LF). And that Ichiro made 372 putouts, 12 assists, 3 double plays and 3 errors in 158 games in RF. And I know for a fact that many people simply don’t even try going on Ichiro because they know how accurate he is. Now, I don’t know about Hidalgo, but I do know I don’t believe for one moment that Richard Hidalgo is 4 times the right fielder Ichiro is.
Patrick,
You missed the entire point of Tango’s post. His post was entirely about the relevance of arm strength, not about defense overall. His intitial point was that Ichiro is so good defensively in RF, he’s being wasted there. Clearly, Tango doesn’t think Hidalgo is 4 times the right fielder that Ichiro is.
However, in regards to arm strength, Tango is right on. Ichiro’s arm may be impressive, but its not that important. Just like majestic 460 foot home runs don’t count for twice as many runs as a ball that clangs off the foul pole, the fact that runners don’t challenge his arm very often doesn’t mean much in the grand scheme of things. Impressiveness isn’t value. Arm strength just isn’t a skill that is put to use in baseball often enough to make a drastic difference in value.
Dave, thanks for setting me straight regarding the possibility of Reed in right. I just kept reading that Reed had a better arm than Winn as one of his CF qualifications and more recently that he played RF in the minors. I guess read more into that than I should have. Sounds like Ibanez in RF would be pointless, but what if Choo looks major league ready as a RF for the start of 2006? How would you feel then?
Also, would someone care to actually critique Tano’s analysis in #27? Seems fairly logical, but then people definitely try to put their best arms in right, and I don’t think they’re idiots. Anyway, sounds like I’ll go back to hoping that Reed can be a decent CF this year and hope the debate gets resurrected next year. But I don’t see anyone coming back at Tano and showing why they believe a great arm is significantly more important in right.
And what about #31? I don’t know much about UZR, but I’m pretty skeptical. I mean Cameron at a -1? Not like his arm strength is his main attribute or anything, but Endy Chavez has a +10 on that scale. I’m not trying to say anything about Endy Chavez, but that’s an enormous discrepency. Hell Randy Winn has +1…I’ve never heard anyone claim, “well at least Winn has a better arm than Cameron.”
When looking at relative scales, it is improper to divide those numbers. 20 degrees Celsius is not 20 times hotter than 1 degree Celsius. Please read my article on relative and absolute scales:
http://www.tangotiger.net/scales.html
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As well, the data is for 2000-2003, not 2004. In that time period, Hidalgo had 47 assists, including a mind-boggling 22 in 2003. Ichiro (from 01-03) had 28 assists.
The discussion on errors and putouts is irrelevant, since I was only discussing the arms of the players.
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As for how to figure out “runners held”, it is simply “did the runner stay at 2B or not, when the ball was fielded by the RF”. Many times, it’s not the RF that “holds” the runner, but rather the circumstance of the ball being hit such that even Bernie Williams would “hold” the runner.
But, after 4 years, alot of these breaks start to even out.
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The best reply against MGL’s arm ratings is that he doesn’t (I don’t think) park adjust them. So, it may simply be that it looks like Ichiro doesn’t hold the runners because he plays so deep because of the park he’s in. If you put in an avg RF in that same park, maybe he would come out worse than if he played in any other park.
It seems that this has already been said, so, for emphasis, the inreased requirements for playing CF and the increased possibility of injury make it foolish to consider a position change for such an offensive tool. (Similar to the foolishness of having Edgar play 3B.)
Ichiro once said that he is willing to move to CF if he’s given time to get used to it before the season starts. He’s never said publicly that he won’t do it. Sure his preference might have something to do with the management’s reluctance to move him, but to criticize him for his preference is just silly. Argue all you want about the benefits of moving him to center, but please refrain from personal attacks based on a myth.
#39: seeing what I wrote in #20, I don’t get the reason to restate the character issue.
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Based on the 34 Astros/Mets fans who saw Hidalgo in 2004:
http://www.tangotiger.net/scouting/scoutResults_NYN.html
they gave him a “91″ in arm strength and “79″ in accuracy and “71″ in release.
Once again, just as he did in 2003, Ichiro ended up with the highest overall fielding score in 2004:
http://www.tangotiger.net/scouting/scoutResults_SEA.html
with the 22 Mariner fans giving him a “93″ in arm strength (pretty close to Hidalgo), “90″ in accuracy, and “96″ in release.
(50 is average)
Visually, no one compares to Ichiro. But, Hidalgo, visually, is on the level right below him.
Statistically, Hidalgo comes out on top, but that may be due more to noise than signal. However, the players and the fans all know about Hidalgo, and yet they still challenged him enough to allow him to get 22 assists in 2003. That’s pretty impressive. It’s not like he was an unknown.
Do CF get injured more than LF/RF ? This sounds like a given, but can you back it up? They gave the same reason for moving Erstad from CF to 1B… just before getting injured at 1B.
***
As for the “foolishness”, then why not put Beltran at RF, and keep Cameron in CF? JD Drew says he’s less likely to get injured in CF.
Yeah, I noticed that when they released the spreadsheet a while back. I pointed it out to Nate, but didn’t get a reply. Oh well.
Meanwhile, J.D. Drew was telling people this winter that he’d prefer to play center, because it would be easier on his body because of fewer abrupt starts and stops.
As far as Ichiro playing center, I remember Bob Melvin saying that he wasn’t going to consider moving Ichiro because he was “the best right fielder in the game” (here’s one source for that: http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/baseball/152429_mari13ww.html), so I always believed it was more on him than Ichiro’s reluctance. I suspect that Hargrove won’t consider a move for the simple reason that there isn’t an obvious alternative right fielder on the roster, and the desire to see if Reed can hold down center.
Joshua, thanks for setting me straight. It seems that everyone has their biases, and are risk averse to challenging them.
Tango, I think Dave made the most logic answer to your post. If you can come out with someone else to replace Ichiro in RF this year, I am all for it.
Tango,
You’re right about people being afraid to challenge things. Don’t forget that this is also a very PR-conscious organization that tends towards the conservative. If they perceived a chance that Ichiro might not work out in center, and that that might make the meal ticket look bad, that’s one set of pressure. Ichiro seems to be a bit reluctant to make a mid-season shift, again because he’s afraid of looking bad. Add in the manager being in the “it ain’t broke, and I ain’t fixing it” camp, and you’ve got a lot of inertia to shift. To move Ichiro at this point, it would take a complete absence of CF candidates, a manager with the personal authority to make it happen or a player acquisition that makes it a no-brainer (and Vlad is already under contract). Other than that, it’s going to be status quo.
Tango, excellent analysis, thank you for posting it. I have a few questions:
1. When you say “You make about 30 to 35% more plays in CF than RF,” what are you referring to (i.e. putouts, hit dispersion, etc)? Does it consider foul territory?
2. Do you think there is any way to quantify an ability to play the carom off of a corner, or place a value on what that ability might be worth?
3. It appears that the 15, 5, 25 and 5, 10, 30 in your analisis are largely arbitrary. The 5 and 10 figures sound about right, considering assist figures, but I wonder if there’s a basis for the held at second versus safe at third estimates.
Thanks again. I find it very interesting just how little a difference a strong arm might make, but also that his range in CF isn’t actually worth more than your calculations would indicate.
Andrew, your point about finding someone to replace Ichiro in RF goes against what I described in my long post #27. The arm strength is secondary to the range. You put a guy in RF if his arm is so much better than his range… someone like Vlad, or Larry Walker in his post-peak period. When you have Ichiro and Beltran, you have to put them in CF, unless you’ve got other options where the balance of range/arm is sooo much off the other way.
Now, it sounds like you are saying that Reed’s got an abnormally bad arm. But the fans who voted on my scouting report say he’s got an average arm. Did I get an unrepresentative sampling?
If it was Randy Winn, a guy with an arm like Bernie Williams or Johnny Damon, then I’d agree. The balance is so extreme, that you not only worry about the guys taking the extra base from 1b to 3b, but also of stretching singles into doubles, or doubles into triples.
So, the first issue is that entering 2004, deciding on Ichiro being CF or RF should have been in the papers every single day, deciding what to do, and how to do it. From the discussion here, it seems that this was not even on the backburner, let alone the frontburner.
The second issue was finding a decent RF, someone like… Hidalgo. I think he signed for 5MM, which is just fine.
If Reed’s arm is like Winn, then you can’t have them both in your OF. Having Ichiro in CF gives you much greater flexibility, since it’s alot easier finding a corner OF than a CF.
Bill, thanks for your comment…
1. it is based on BIP dispersion and putouts.
2. *everything* is quantifiable… it’s just that those that are harder to quantify has a larger uncertainty level… for the carom, just count how many times it happens, and how the visitors handle it, etc
3. yes, they are arbitrary, but they are grounded in some decent estimates. I gave figures of 15 times they average RF will let the guy get to 3B, and 5 times throw him out. That’s a 25% caught stealing rate. I gave Ichiro 5,10, or a 67% caught stealing rate.
What’s important is that I’ve described a framework in which you can plug in whatever numbers you want. If you want to make the average RF worse, and Ichiro even better, that’s fine. But, at least what we have is something quantifiable.
I apologize for all the links I’ve given you, but you’ll also appreciate this one:
http://www.tangotiger.net/destmob.html
One other point– the analysis in post #27 above doesn’t take into consideration non-hit situations, such as runners advancing from second to third on a fly ball.
I also wonder about the fact that fielders with less accurate arms are more likley to throw the ball away when challenged, which may have a net result in overstating their assists. Since they were challenged more often, they’ll sometimes get the assist (the 5 in the assumptions above) but they or their third baseman may also have more errors to show for it.
Finally, there is no accounting for plays at home plate, which could actually make the case that having a strong arm in Center is more valuable. But still, it may be worth considering.
Reed’s arm is better than Winn’s arm in much the same way that Wendys is healthier than McDonalds. Yes, its better, but if Winn’s arm strength is in the bottom 10 percent of major league outfielders, Reed is in the bottom 20 percent. Reed’s arm in right field would be a problem. Winn’s arm in right field would be a disaster.
We agree with you that arm strengh is vastly less important than range, and that Ichiro as a CF makes sense. However, we still have to exist in the reality of major league baseball’s current structure that grades arm strength as one of the five key tools. The Mariners aren’t going to put Reed in right field and Ichiro in center, regardless of how many statistical models we send them that say they should. It’s similar to the closer mentality; we can show them hundreds of studies that show that pitching your best reliever in the 9th up by three runs is a waste, but they’re not going to start using Eddie Guardado in the 7th inning.
It seems to me that you think we’re failing in our role by accepting that we don’t have the power to change the status quo on this one. I don’t feel like U.S.S. Mariner needs to be posting, over and over and over again, that Ichiro should be playing center field when there is a 0.0 percent chance that Mike Hargrove is going to put him in center field on opening day.
And, for what its worth, we supported the pursuit of Hidalgo, saying all kinds of good things about him. If the roster were constructed a little differently, we’d certainly be banging the Ichiro-in-CF drum loudly. But, I guess I don’t see why we need to be belaboring the point when, based on the current roster, it wouldn’t be that beneficial to the team.
Husker Du and Depeche Mode…can’t go wrong with either, two of my favorite groups.
Bill, sure there are plenty of other situations. The plays at home is one where you’d prefer the better arm in CF. You have hits stretched into XBH (more likely with LF and RF than CF). Moving from 2b to 3b on a flyball I think is rare enough to begin with, but you are right that this would affect the RF a bit more than the CF.
All in all, having the CF involved in 150 more plays using his range (in turning hits into outs, which saves you .8 runs each time that happens) is far more beneficial than the 20 extra times that his arm will save one base (which saves you .2 runs each time).
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Dave, I don’t think what you seem in your 2nd to last paragraph.
I definitely agree with your point on Hidalgo as you noted in your link.
Oh, re: Guardado, using Leveraged Index, he was the 2nd most effectively used ace, after Trevor Hoffman, in 2004. Keith Foulke was one of the very worst used ace.
Dave, don’t mean to repeat myself but I would still love an answer to the question of if you think a move by Ichiro to center is possible if Reed looks like he is struggline in CF and Choo looks potentially major league ready in RF. Choo is not projected to be a capable CF, right?
A couple of questions:
1. I may have missed it, but why exactly does everyone think that Ichiros range in CF will be monumentaly better than Reed’s? Furthermore if Ichiro is uncomfortable in CF wouldn’t that decrease his range, and even maybe cause some errors (misplayed balls, etc.) One last thought here, many people compare Reed to Jim Edmonds defensivly in CF, meaning they shouldn’t be as good as they are, but grit, good instincts, and no regard for ones body lets them excel, on the other hand as it has been pointed out already Ichiro is almost fastidous in the very particular way he goes about himself on the baseball field, to that point I don’t know if I have EVER seen him dive for a ball (slide yes, dive no), so again I ask, why is it a foregone conclusion that Ichiros range will be so much better than Reed’s? Since Range is the most important aspect
2. A little off subject, but as far as numbers go and what I have seen in game, Cammy is FAR superior to Beltran in CF, but the mets are going to force Cammy to RF! Why? Because the big dogs get to eat first. If Beltran wants to play CF then by God he will because, who cares what Cammy says he is not the superstar (who is an is not a superstar and why they are given that title is another discussion altogether). Same applies for Ichiro, if he perfers RF and playing there allows him to play at his best (as he sees it), the why would we try and force him elsewhere. As Yogi Berra so astutly pointed out for us “Baseball is 90% half mental” if playing CF is going to weigh on Ichiro mentally then it is a bad idea.
Brock, I don’t disagree with anything you said. What I would like is some on-the-record discussions by Ichiro and the manager and the GM on Ichiro playing CF, which I had presumed was the talk of the town last year. I agree if Ichiro is so set in his ways that he’s going to be mentally bothered by a new pattern, then let sleeping dogs lie. Until some reporter gets into Ichiro’s head, we’ll have to guess as to how he’d react.
Ichiro seems to be the greatest fielding specimen ever. Readers here are “hoping” Reed will be very good in CF. Nothing is a foregone conclusion, but a betting man, not knowing about any possible “mental issues” Ichiro may or may not have, would bet the farm that Ichiro would be superior to Reed in CF.
I think there are better things to think about than the Ichiro RF/CF conjecture. There are easily a dozen things the club could do that would have more impact, that wouldn’t involve possibly screwing up the one position that has gone right for the M’s.
Way to kill a party Harry!
Seriously, nothing we say here matters, so why not let us have our innocent fun, and maybe some of us can learn something? I assumed Ichiro=Jeter, and now I see it might be management that is risk averse.
Ichiro! won’t move because Ichiro! doesn’t want to move. That puts a damper on my interest in and the general value of speculation about what circumstances might cause him to move, or if he’d be better than Player X there.
To me, a more interesting question than whether Ichiro plays RF or CF is whether it’s best to bat him #1 or #2, given the lineups the M’s have been assembling during his tenure.
On most teams, putting a very high batting average in the #1 slot wastes a large number of hits on situations without runners on base. The team hasn’t had the sort of OBPs in the #8 and #9 slots which would justify parking the best BA in the order behind them. Traditionally, it’s thought that having some bat control in the #2 slot is important, for hit-and-run options and so forth. Ichiro brings probably the best bat control in baseball to that task, so that’s certainly no objection. Another objection is that batting him in the #2 would reduce his opportunities to steal. That might be true in his first PA of each game if the #1 hitter gets on base and isn’t a fast player. In his remaining PAs it seems that batting behind a non-slow (but not necessarily speedy) #1 might clog the bases less than batting behind the typically slower players in the bottom of the order. Regardless, I think the base-stealing implications of the move aren’t very large.
Announcers like to point out the advantage that Ichiro gives the batter while standing on first, due to the pressing need for the opposing first baseman to inhibit his lead. What’s rarely mentioned is the kind of performance Ichiro might be able to achieve if he frequently batted with a legitimate base-stealer standing on first. We won’t know just how devastating he could be with a big hole to hit into until the team actually places him in that situation on an everyday basis. If only there were a player with (a) good OBP and (b) reasonable threat to steal but also (c) little power to waste in the #1 slot, then the M’s could try it. In recent years they haven’t really had such a player, but with Jeremy Reed they may now have the right guy. Note also that Reed has characteristic (d) doesn’t waste a high BA in the #1 slot, with much of his OBP coming from walks rather than hits.
Ichiro’s tendency to hit groundballs would bring down his value a lot if he were to bat second.
Not only would a bunch of those infield hits become outs (just one – a fielder’s choice), but having a runner on base would prevent the opposing infield from playing in, thus reducing the number of balls Ichiro hits to the outfield.
A lot of Ichiro’s value is locking into his batting with no one on base in front of him; that he leads off the inning roughly twice as often as anyone else on the team helps a lot.
Batting Ichiro second would be a disaster, and it would rob him of plate appearances.
Evan: Points well taken, though they raise an even more interesting question for me: Is Ichiro merely a good, rather than great, player because his value is so dependent upon specific usage? That is:
1. Is a guy with a high batting average who needs to bat with the bases empty really a great player? The principal difference between a hit and a walk is the opportunity to score other runners. Are most of Ichiro’s hits merely walk-substitutes?
2. If my team is blessed with good OBPs throughout the order, all the way down to the #8 and #9 slots, am I screwing myself out of much of Ichiro’s value by actually playing them all? Is it important to bat 1-2 lousy players at the bottom to preserve Ichiro’s offensive performance?
I think Ichiro is an amazing and unique player, but I also am starting to see how small a usage frame his role must fit into to exploit his value.
What are blogs for if not speculation and conjecture?? I think the debate about Ichiro in CF is interesting and Tangotiger brings an outsider’s view to the table that we as fans don’t necessarily have. I probably don’t understand half of what he writes, but I’m still enjoying it nonetheless.
As for batting Ichiro second, how many plate appearances would he lose?
Evan.
Correct me if I’m wrong, but aren’t Ichiro’s numbers with men on, perplexingly high?
It seems to me that the opposite of what you say is true. That he so threw the stats with men on, that people were suggesting that his ability to steer his hits gave him an advantage with someone on first.
I could be completely wrong, but everything I read in the past supported the idea that Ichiro was an anamoly – a guy who’s big numbers with runners on and RISP was more skill than luck.
Have those numbers changed in the last year or two?
Ichiro has a sick BA with men in scoring position: his hits are not mere walk substitutes. But his high rate of infield singles does mean that he will hit into more FCs with a guy on first. I agree with Evan, putting someone with a high OBP due to walks in front of Ichiro is probably not a great idea.
I remember an article in which Ichiro said he would be willing to switch to center but he preferred to be moved in the off season so he could work on the change. Seems like now would be the perfect time to ask him to switch.
Harry…
But FCs don’t count as a hit… so where are the hits coming from?
His average is almost 20 points higher, career, with runners on.
I can’t find runner on first only splits, but I’m not seeing where any support for the FC scenario comes from.
I’m posting this from my phone, but I wish I was home, since I actually have some runner advancement base/out situations I computed from Retrosheet data that might be relevent. Well, semi-interesting. While DMZ is probably correct that this is mostly just navel-gazing, I’m still having fun.
It seems like the question of Ichiro hitting second is also a moot one, since the same risk-averse forces that hold Ichiro in right (”best right fielder in baseball”) will keep him in leadoff (I’ll bet I can find a similar quote about him as a leadoff hitter).
Keep in mind that while I enjoy stats… I’m not good at them. So I won’t be at all surprised to be completely wrong.
You lose 18 PA per batting spot moved down. It’s pretty static across the board, and is computed as 162/9.
Since we are all conjecturing, speculating, and just plain fantasizing. I say Ichiro in left just so he can gun down guys going from batter’s box to second and from 2nd/3rd to home. Put Sexson in right and Choo in center. That’ll be a great defensive alignment. Ibanez at first and Winn/Bucky as DH. There!
I know Ichiro’s BA with RISP is sick. Does anyone know what his BA is with a runner on 1B?
But most of all, the man is crazily and entertainingly productive batting leadoff and playing RF. Why mess with that? Anything that might distract Ichiro is bad.
Someone or some people have mentioned that Ichiro doesn’t want to look bad. Moving to center field for him is not about looking bad, but it is about being bad. Like any position you need time to practice that position. You shouldn’t just move into that position. He is not selfish but a total team player. Once when he was in a slump he offered to Melvin to be sent to AAA until the slump ended. How many players would do that? He is always thinking team first — another example (in the past) he didn’t want to appear on a team calendar by himself but with other teammates.
Oh, forgot to mention. Being “raised” in the Japan leagues is quite difference as you know. But how many of you know that Japanese rookies at the beginning of the season are required to attend a seminar on how to be a good person, team player, and a good player.
ray: I don’t think there’s a harder position switch than SS to 3B. Once you’ve got super talent like ARod, it makes the position switch much easier. ARod was sensational at 3B.
CF and RF have very very similar traits, unlike SS/3B. If Shane Spencer and Jeromy Burnitz can play CF cold, and look ok there, then I’m sure the perfect fielding specimen doesn’t need to much time there.
We’ve seen Ichiro in CF a couple of times, and he did just fine. I don’t think there’s an issue with ability there. He just feels more comfortable in RF, and I for one think there’s value to having a player where he’s most comfortable. He’s a professional, folks should accept his professional judgment about what his comfort zone is.
John in LA: I was theorizing that many of what would be his plethora of infield singles if there’s no one on first turn into FCs with the runner out at second. The upside is that Ichiro’s speed keeps them from being double-plays. The downside is that he does hit a bunch of ground balls, and they are hits for him where they would be hits for absolutely no one else in baseball.
But for all I know, the numbers don’t back me up, so I do have to admit I’m pulling this out of my butt. I’ve seen him simply replace the runner on first many times, as he grounded to 4 or 6 with the runner out at 2nd. I think his hit total would drop if he constantly had runners on first.
Yes, there’s comfort in a comfortable zone. But what you want also is flexibility. When Hidalgo, Vlad, Sheffield or otherwise were available, it would have been nice to know that Ichiro would gladly move over to CF as a true professional. I don’t know the understanding between Ichiro and management, but to just give a blanket statement like “he’s comfortable, leave him there” is not good enough.
In 1984 or so, they asked Tim Raines to move to CF so that Hawk could move to RF because of his knees. Raines did so, gladly. He was fine there. But, he said at the end that it wasn’t comfortable for him, so they moved him back to LF, and brought in a “real” CF. I don’t know how Ichiro would react, but what you want is flexibility, and a trial time period to figure that out. I’m sure Smoltz wasn’t comfortable as a reliever either. Its incumbent on all professionals to roll up their sleeves and try something else, so that when a situation presents itself, management has the flexibility in deploying its resources.
DMZ: I’m surprised by your comment in #59.
One of your best pieces ever:
http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1599&mode=print&nocache=1109777561
Couldn’t I have said: “MLB teams don’t want revenue sharing, so there won’t be real revenue sharing, so that puts a damper on my interest and general speculation…”
In every interesting unpaid analysis that is done, the value is not in the destination, but in the journey. It’s what you learn, what information you use, how you use it. It’s the whole framework of how to think, and what to look for.
Everything baseball analysis we do and write is completely trivial and meaningless. But, it’s fun, and that’s why some of us speculate on the Ichiro move, and how you can learn something from it. It’s irrelevant if the destination of Ichiro being in CF is remote. The journey itself is fun.
This also doesn’t stop people from debating Ruth, Williams, and Bonds, even though their playing conditions have changed drastically.
I agree with the other poster that without conjecture, blogs would lose some of their huge appeal.
What’s funny is that Derek ended the piece above by saying “it has no chance”.
OK, here are Ichiro’s three-year splits (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits3?statsId=6615&type=batting):
None on: .341/.372/.454
On 1st (only): .289/.323./.356
Runners on: .326/.409/.408
So, yes, Ichiro has performed worse with a single runner on first over the past three years. That’s also true in his most recent year. The stats appear to back up the observation that Ichiro is not at his best with a single runner on. For the record, according to data I pulled from Retrosheet for the AL 1981-1990, the average hitter gets a bump of 4.3% in their batting average with a runner on first.
Thanks for the link. More telling than comparing runners on is comparing RISP: he’s .359 with RISP, .289 with 1B only. Is there anything else that would account for that sort of discrepancy, except that he’s hitting into a bunch of FCs with an out at second, when he has a runner on 1st?
It’s possible that Ichiro changes his approach at bat.
Overall, his K/BB with no one on is 135/60, but with runners on, it’s 59/93 !! That’s one remarkable shift. With guys on 1B only, it’s 28/14, meaning an even more astounding 31/79 with RISP.
Anyway, focus on Ichiro’s stats when he makes contact and it’s not a HR:
with men on 1B only, its 89 hits on 285 contact in-park PA, for an average of .312. His overall average is .361. So, still a discrepancy, but not so bad. A 49 point difference based on 285 PA is only 2 standard deviations away. Well within the realm of luck.
I think the most likely explanation is:
1 – Ichiro completely changes his approach to hitting with runners in scoring position
2 – Any other difference is probably luck
Tom
What is the evidence that Ichiro’s range (as measured by total chances and putouts) would increase significantly by moving from RF to CF? The aggregate stats are biased by teams putting the players with the best range in CF. According to ESPN’s fielding stats, Ichiro led all AL outfielders last year in total chances and putouts. Unfortunately, the data for the Cameron years wasn’t available. Having Ichiro in right field lets the Ms take advantage of both his range and his arm. Moreover, his (and Winn’s) range lets them get away with playing Reed in center.
Utis: I have published research that compares the *same* fielder, and how he performs at CF / LF or CF / RF. This is how I got the numbers I have described here.
Re: #80, the 2004 splits for Ichiro are:
None on: .376/.401/.475
1B only: .355/.378/.393
Runners on: .364/.439/.412
So the effect is still there, but it’s not nearly as severe as the 3-year (2002-2004) split you’ve quoted. Why is that? Well, 2003 is also not as severe as the 3-year number. But then there’s 2002:
None on: .332/.379/.450
1B only: .227/.257/.289
Runners on: .301/.402/.375
So the 3-year split just happens to include a huge anomaly from 2002…how conveeeeeeeenient…
I think that if there was a big problem, he’s addressed it somehow. I don’t see how putting him in the “runner on 1B” situation another two dozen times each year presents any great hazard to his performance level. Note also that the individuals on first in the “Ichiro batting #2″ scenario would tend to be somewhat faster than those reflected in the stats we’re quoting here, which cuts down a bit on the easy FC situations both through ordinary base speed and by stealing second to eliminate force options.
Costing Ichiro 18 PAs is of some consequence, but so is costing Bonds 36 PAs…should Bonds bat leadoff to prevent that? In general it’s best to bat strong hitters next to other strong hitters to benefit from synergy both before and after each good offensive player. That lineup effect will generally outweigh any of these other effects discussed here. Enshrining an excellent player at the top of the order for “inside baseball” cultural reasons fails, I think, to gain the full advantage that’s offered.
Since the Ichiro for HOF thread is closed, I thought this was a good
place to mention that I’ve finally completed my analysis of how I see
his status for Cooperstown. I got hung up trying to do comparables
to him at his age using SQL, and only recently figured out another way around the issue. Anyway, the link is:
this page. Hope you find it interesting.
Jim Albright
Ichiro’s OPS since coming to Seattle (2001 through 2004).
838
813
788
869
Offensively, this looks like an decent major league right fielder to me.