Going Inside
If you don’t have an ESPN Insider account, well … it’s not really worth the money, I don’t think. But if you do, or if you have ever been tempted to sign up for that 30-day free trial, then you can read in their entirety two new columns by Jerry Crasnick and Rob Neyer about the M’s.
My honest opinion? There’s not much new or interesting about either of these pieces, but each has one element I wanted to highlight.
From Crasnick, there’s the part where he paints an somewhat different picture of the Adrian Beltre negotiations than Bill Plaschke did a few days ago.
Beltre surprised a lot of people by leaving Los Angeles, where he signed out of the Dominican Republic in 1994 at age 15. But he says the Dodgers made him a five-year offer for money that “wasn’t close” to the Seattle deal, and dallied enough to make him wonder how sincere they were about re-signing him.
“Seattle handled the negotiations better,” Beltre said. “There was a lot of communication, and I never got that from L.A. It was a tough situation because I was born in that organization. It’s a great city and a great ballpark. I met my wife there, and we had lived there for a while. But I think this was the best decision I ever made.”
There are elements of commonality between the Crasnick account and the Plaschke account. In each, Beltre says that he was disappointed in the Dodgers’ lack of communication skills. But there are two important differences.
First, Plaschke implied that the Dodgers’ offer would have been enough to woo Beltre back if only Paul DePodesta had done a bit more gladhanding with or directed more phone-coddling toward Beltre. This piece says that ain’t so, and that the M’s offer flat blew away L.A.’s bid. Our very own inestimable Dave Cameron backs this version, and I buy it.
Second, Plaschke implied that Beltre as filled with regret and tearful. He might be, and I don’t doubt that it was a tough decision for him to leave his first organization. But including the “signing with the M’s was the best decision I ever made” quote would have undermined Plaschke’s prescripted narrative, that Dodgers management are bloodless, buffoonish spreadsheet-huggers without the human touch.
These are minor distinctions that are of little importance to Mariner fans now — hey, we got our stud third baseman, who cares whether that happened because Bill Bavasi opened the checkbook, because Paul DePodesta messed up, or because of a combination of factors? And who really knows, if you aren’t Adrian Beltre or in the front office of either organization?
Crasnick’s account tends to flesh out the picture we get of what happened, though, which is why I’m citing it.
As for Neyer, his column is an update and reconsideration of another Insider story he did in late December that I critiqued at Mariner Musings. Using a pretty rough calculation, Neyer estimated that the Mariners would win games numbering in the mid-70s. I thought this missed a lot, and predicted an 82-win year myself.
Apparently, Rob was in a room full of fans recently where he crept his estimate northward, forecasting a 78-win season. Afterward, though, he used a new tool called the Team Efficiency Summary from the new Bill James Handbook to conclude that (as you might already suspect) the Mariners were beset with loads of bad luck last year.
Without getting into too much detail, I’ll tell you that Rob reconsidered his prognostication again:
That roomful of baseball fans, where I predicted 78 wins for Seattle? That wasn’t a terrible guess, but with the help of Bill James, I’m happy to revise it upward: In ’05 the Mariners will win 82, give or take a few — unless they’re as lucky this season as they were unlucky last.
Let’s hope Rob publishes another column about expected Mariner wins and losses before the season starts. Seems like the team is climbing in the standings each time he does.
The Scott Spiezio Diet
Whither Scott Spiezio? Now that we have two rites of spring out of the way — Chris Snelling’s injury and discussion of Griffey trade rumors — Bob Finnigan completes the trifecta with the annual “he’s in the best shape of his life” story, and this time, the best baseball player in the band Sand Frog is the subject.
Lest you assume this is an average tale of athletic endurance and personal commitment to self-improvement, read on. It’s much more amusing.
In an offseason where we’ve already seen Alex Rodriguez brag about his early and often workouts, heard more than we ever wanted to about BALCO and flax seed oil, the Scott Spiezio workout program affords a much more real-world example plan for average folk to relate to. No, the bard of backup infield didn’t hire some butt-kicking personal trainer. He merely made a few dietary adjustments. What adjustments?
“I used to eat ice cream every night, pizza five, six times a week,” he said. “I used to have a Krispy Kreme (donut) every morning when I got here. “
Great John Kruk’s ghost!
That’s right: Spiezio stopped eating Krispy Kremes every morning, ice cream every night and pizza for almost every dinner. Moving these items off of the training table has helped him cut his body fat by about six percent. If nothing else, the new diet should help Spiezio in the quest to actually hit his weight this year.
Though this sounds more like “Super Size Me: Seattle” than an Atkins-level dietary revelation, the results are drawing good reviews.
Trainer Rich [sic] Griffin was impressed by the offseason effort, noting that Spiezio probably ranks among the top 10 altered bodies the Mariners have seen in back-to-back seasons.
That’s a compliment, right? That says more about how good he looks now than how he looked last year, right? Please tell me Griffin didn’t follow that up with “Off the record, if you had painted him purple last season, he would have looked like Grimace.”
(There has to be a way to quote the “altered bodies” space without someone making a steroids joke, doesn’t there? Okay, here goes: wait until Griffin sees the cyborg body Snelling is going to come back with after surgery! All right, I think that went as well as could be expected. Now there’s no need for any hat size cracks.)
The piece’s last few paragraphs repeat that the Mariners are actively trying to trade Spiezio. Given how much business the team’s done with San Diego in recent years, it’s a good thing that McDonald’s founder Ray Kroc doesn’t own the Padres any more.
Look, history shows that you don’t have to be a supreme physical specimen to be a supremely talented hitter. Spiezio is to be commended, though, for his renewed commitment to good health, and I for one am happy for him.
Almost as happy as his arteries must be.
Roundtables, easy access
Hey all,
I added a link under “Features” (look left) to the Roundtables, so if you’re new here or just want to go back and find out what we said about, say, Miguel Olivo, you can access all the roundtables in one place.
Position Roundtables: Right Field
Jeff: Starting Right Fielder: Ichiro
My first car was a Volkswagen Fastback. Vintage 1969, one of the first
years they put an automatic transmission in the terrapin of
fahrvergnugen, so there were bugs aplenty. The muffler fell off from
time to time. The door panels were rotting. Once, a heating vent stuck
open, bathing passengers in heat during dead summer.
That car was a heap. But I loved it.
Most of all, I loved the stereo I’d installed myself — the only part
that always worked. When the transmission gave out, I could at least
sit in the driveway and pretend I had a way out of my hometown. In a
way, I did, but it was Guided by Voices, Dinosaur Jr. and Husker Du
that were paving the way, not my green given-up-the-ghost car.
In a lineup that has seen a real overhaul, Ichiro is the one part that
you pencil in from last year and expect great things from. This should
be the easiest roundtable, but it isn’t.
What is there left to say about Ichiro? Dave touched on his unbelievable 2004. Derek has noted how unique he is and considered a Hall of Fame case. Nate Silver admits that he throws PECOTA for a loop.
How about, as Larry Stone mentions, that he appears to be the most likely player to make a run at .400? No, we can’t talk about that: if a respected baseball writer is openly musing about Ted Williams territory (and Dimaggio’s 56-game streak), that territory has to be played out. Right?
That’s Ichiro. The stupefying becomes conceivable, the incredible
becomes commonplace.
Well, we could speculate about No. 51 breaking the Mariner record for
runs in a season now that he’ll be batting in front of Beltre and
Sexson. Oops: it’s been done, with John Hickey even discussing the major-league
run records as well.
Now, I’m not necessarily saying that Ichiro will come through with
another record-setting performance this year, and neither are the
authors of any of the pieces I’ve linked to. That’s the point of his
forecast-busting nature. No one really knows what the guy is going to
do.
What we do know is what to do with Ichiro: plug him in, watch him,
enjoy. Lather, rinse, repeat.
Dave: Umm, what Jeff said.
Seriously, Ichiro is awesome. He’s a remarkably valuable player, extremely unique, exciting, and marketable, all rolled into one mini package. Ichiro makes going to the ballpark more fun in a way that other great players don’t. The Ichiro experince goes beyond his BA/OBP/SLG and and the tangible value of his production. Ichiro is great for the game. Ichiro is great for Seattle.
I-chi-ro. I-chi-ro. I-chi-ro.
Jason: Jeff didn’t find one of my posts to quote… but then, I guess I haven’t gushed about Ichiro here on the USSM. I knew I had somewhere, though, so I did some digging. Ah yes, here it is, the August 2003 issue of the Grand Salami.
By the time 2002 rolled around, all was right with the world. Ichiro was seemingly having an even better season, hitting .357 at the All-Star break. He was even drawing more walks, having eclipsed his total from the previous season in just 62 games, leading to a stellar .430 on-base percentage. What was I thinking, having doubted this guy?
Then the second half came. Ichiro hit .282 in August and just .248 in September, dropping his average 36 points after the break. He also stopped walks, and when he did get on base he wouldn’t attempt to steal second base even in a close game. Again, I wondered if this guy was all he was cracked up to be. In his defense, it turned out he had never fully recovered from an injury suffered when he ran into the outfield wall in Oakland late in the year, but still…
Given his performance in the second half of 2002 you can imagine my angst when he started slowly this year, hitting just .243 in April. I wondered aloud—and wrote as much in this very magazine—if Ichiro’s star was beginning to fade. He seemed ordinary, no longer the dynamic offensive catalyst he once was. After all, he was hitting a mere .258 over his last 300-plus at-bats, and it’s not as if he was making up for it with power or walks.
I’m happy to say that’s the last time I’ll ever doubt Ichiro. He quieted me in May by hitting .389 with four homers. He shut me up in June by hitting .386 with ten steals and two more homers. And just for good measure, he smacked me silly in July by hitting well over .400 in the ten games leading up to the All-Star break.
Don’t doubt him. Don’t knock him. Just when you think he’s down, he’ll whiz a line drive single past your ear. Ichiro, you the man.
Should he play center? Yeah, sure. Should he walk a bit more? Yeah, probably. But c’mon. Given all the good he does — and the problems elsewhere on the team — it’s hardly worth wasting words on such minor quibbles.