Game 34, Mariners at Yankees
DMZ · May 11, 2005 at 10:22 am · Filed Under Game Threads
LHP Moyer v RHP Pavano. 10:05 (!) broadcast on ESPN.
From the press notes, it looks like the 13-19 Mariners will sell out through the Boston series.
Brief digression:
From the MLB.com Game Preview:
“I have to find a way to keep the ball down and my fastball away from the middle of the plate. It’s pretty simple.” — Aaron Sele on what he needs to do to improve
Alternately:
“I need to invent a time machine, travel back in time to before my arm blew up, when I could pitch effectively, and then abduct myself to make my next start. But then wait… what happens to old me? Do I disappear now because the old me won’t be around?”
Comments
441 Responses to “Game 34, Mariners at Yankees”
Uh, because you don’t bench guys who are playing well so you can hand a job to someone who’s shown NO ability to be healthy for longer than a couple of months?
If it was July, Doyle was doing well, we were 10 games out and teams were calling and mentioning Winn’s names in trades, sure, I’d listen. I might even shop him and Ibanez (espeically if Choo’s also doing well). But benching a good player doesn’t improve your team, and the big question with Doyle we don’t know about is “Can this guy stay in a lineup for 140 games”? There’s no reason to find the answer to that question on the major league level when we HAVE a decent LF there already, and we can adequately answer the question for Doyle in Tacoma.
I don’t think things are as bleak as some folks make them out to be.
If the Mariners improve by *15* games over last year that would put them at only 78 wins. The offseason offensive additions (Beltre and Sexson) were not enough to move that many games from losses into wins.
#388 Dave, “You’re wrong about Winn. He’s a terrific defensive left fielder, probably the best in the game.”
No he’s not. No arm. And Cameron made him look pretty good in 2003 by tracking the ball and quickly getting to LC (and LF) before he did. He’s not bad but that’s clearly an overstatement.
I’m also afraid that Scout A and B are way off the mark on Mr. Olivo. He’s age 26 and a bust. It’s time to move on.
My point is that expectations were (I believe) a bit too high…
Re. #357:
I’m the only idiot who continually states that the M’s should trade Scott Spiezio to the Detroit Tigers for Bobby Higginson; it is me, and me alone.
Anyhow, there are some guys on the big-league club that soon ought to be either demoted to the minors or designated for assignment and subsequently release, with those guys being:
Aaron Sele (recall Jorge Campillo);
Jeff Nelson (recall Cha-Seung Baek);
Matt Thornton (recall George Sherrill);
Wilson Valdez (recall Yuniesky Betancourt);
Dave Hansen (recall “Doyle”);
Miguel Olivo (recall Rene Rivera);
Willie Bloomquist (recall Jamal Strong);
Greg Dobbs (recall Justin Leone).
Even if those moves happen, though, the M’s are nonetheless likely to be a 60-win ballclub.
400, I totally disagree. Winn’s craptastic arm is relatively meaningless in left field, and his range is outstanding.
401, I think you’re right. Alot of people who are panicking had the idea we were a playoff team this year. As Dave and others correctly pointed out, we were an 85 win team at best with everyone healthy. This losing skid makes us out to be worse than we really are, but it’s not that far off the mark.
Winn is not a very good defensive outfielder anymore and is a very weak hitting .290 hitter.
AK, what makes you think Betancourt would possibly be any better than Valdez or that Rivera would be any better than Olivo? That’s making moves just for the sake of making them, and would probably make the team worse in the process. I don’t completely disagree with the rest of your list, although that would leave us without a anyone who can really backup SS. I don’t think Baek’s ready after the injury though.
How soon before we see King Felix up with Seattle? I say before the All Star break.
406, I hope not. Wait until mid-August, at least.
Lordy, isn’t Winn the LAST guy you should be crapping on? He’s actually hitting his weight, making plays, getting on base, third in OPS (excluding, for purposes of straightfacedness, the Wikster). Although he is not driving the ball as much as I would like, he seems to be, more or less, living up to expectations.
#400 Winn has a fine arm for a left fielder, his arm is not best suited for CF, but for a LF he is one of the better ones out there.
What is the priority?
1) release crappy veterans;
2) make adjustments to the bench;
3) trade anything of value (Winn, Ibanez, Guardado);
4) attempt to dump salary (Boone/SandFrog).
I put those in that order because that seems to be logical AND management is likely to do it (eventually).
#401 – Depends on whose expectations you’re talking about. I expected the team to be between 75 and 80 wins, and I still don’t think that’s too outrageous. I expect them to play tough against bad and mediocre teams (Oakland, KC, Texas so far) and to get beat easily by the better teams (Boston, LAA). Getting destroyed by the Yanks isn’t too unexpected since they’re probably a middle-of-the-road team and their strength lines up perfectly with our weakness (lineup v. pitching).
In all honesty, other than the poor offensive showings from Beltre and Olivo, I’ve seen just about exactly what I expected from this team.
406-07: This season is crap for crap, why not wait until 2006?
Re. #405:
The bench could look like this:
Catcher Wiki Gonzalez
Infielder Justin Leone
Outfielder Jamal Strong
Designated Hitter Chris Snelling
Also, Miguel Olivo needs time in Tacoma — while Bryce Terveen could move down to San Antonio and take Rene Rivera’s spot on the Missions’ roster — so he can fix whatever it is that is wrong with his hitting and defensive mechanics. In addition, Y. Betancourt is getting paid, I believe, $1.616 million this season — with a majority of that being his signing bonus — so he should be playing at the big-league level in attempt to show the M’s what production value he might have in the future. Cha-Seung Baek can help avoid any re-injury by working out of the bullpen for the time being, while waiting until Ryan Franklin blows up until the point where he deserves to be released.
Arm strength is almost essentially meaningless for a left fielder. The extra bases Winn allows over a player with an average arm leads to about 3-5 runs a year. In the grand scheme of things, that’s nothing.
Winn simply gets to significantly more balls than almost every other left fielder in baseball. Like Jacque Jones and Ichiro, he’s basically a CF playing a corner spot, giving him a huge leg up on the competition.
Winn’s range in left far outweighs any deficincies his arm has. Cameron was awesome, no doubt, but the M’s outfield defense is, once again, one of the best in baseball this year. And Mike Cameron’s in New York. It’s not Jeremy Reed.
Oliva has out grown “needing time in Tacoma” if he is ever going to be worth anything he needs to start learning it now, in Seattle.
#414 – WORD!
Dave – How has Reed been defensively this year? I know coming into the season there were some questions as to whether he could handle Center full-time. Has this pretty much been the case or has he handled it better than expected so far?
You didn’t answer the question though. What makes you think Betancourt or Rivera would be an upgrade? And Yuniesky’s salary isn’t a worthy answer in my opinion.
Dave, you are wrong. How can you hope to let this die when you are so clearly wrong. You think he’s maybe the best defensive left fielder in baseball? You’re kidding right? I saw him make a couple of nice catches but for every nice catch I also saw him bobble and throw off line, saw two balls go over his head, saw a ball drop in even though he was playing shallow enough, and saw him give up on two catches most people think he should have made. And this goes on every series I watch him play. He just doesn’t make enough effort to be considered one of the best. He’s no Eric Byrnes, he’s decent, not much more, which is fine just don’t tell me he is great. There are no statistics for balls that should be caught.
Re. #418:
Hmm…Yuniesky Betancourt would not be an upgrade over Wilson Valdez, but he is about equal in ability, so the monetary aspect of the move would justifiy it’s happening; Rene Rivera would be an improvement on Miguel Olivo.
WS, your wrong.
#419 – Byrnes? Are you kidding me? Sure, he plays with a lot of …. energy, but I’d take Winn over him defensively any day of the week. The fact that Byrnes appears to have a bit more pop makes him an intriguing offensive player, but that appears to be the only way he’s better than Winn.
It is funny, in the midst of all the awful performances that the Mariners have had, that anyone would single out Winn. Yeah, his batting stance makes you feel a little queasy, and yeah he’s got no arm, but he is also playing at as high a level as you can expect from him. What about Reed (a huge letdown so far) or Beltre (an easy out) or Olivo? Not to mention the entire freakin’ ptiching staff. (WHAT staff??) And not to mention the horrendous decisions made by Hargrove (putting in Thornton (monday and today) and nellie (monday) when the M’s are in a position to win, and putting in Mateo and Putz when the game is out of reach. Sure Winn is tradeable (BUT you have to get something for him)–but he is also one of two players on the team who are hitting AT ALL consistently.
“Sure, he plays with a lot of …. energy….”
That must be what it takes to be in WS’s “good list”. Let me guess WS, you are a WFB fan too?
Okay, there it is, the human vacuum in left, RANDY WINN! Greatness. Is that how you really feel? I cross my fingers every time the ball is hit near the warning track in left, left/center. A play at the plate I don’t even bother doing that, I know the runner will be safe ( but that’s okay it doesn’t make a difference over a season – only 2 or 3 runs!) Now that is great. I’m wrong on this one, okay!
#403 & #414
Not essentially meaningless, but arm strength does disqualify Winn as the “probably the best in the game”
Ability to throw the Sid Breams of the world out at the plate (or Frank Thomas tagging from first to second) is part of the game.
I’d take Godzilla (before his recent position switch) over Winn.
But this is like arguing who is the best 10th man in the NBA.
#423 – Re: Reed – I don’t think he’s really been a letdown. He’s getting on base at a decent clip (.333), and there is an adjustment period when first coming up. Crosby won ROY last year hitting .239/.319/.426 after having a pretty big year the season before at AAA. I don’t think Reed will slug that high, but both his average and obp should be a decent amount better than Crosby’s was.
Could it be that Winn (high range factor and all) makes many plays look routine, while slower players (such as Byrne) are forced to dive which makes the play look “great” ???
“But this is like arguing who is the best 10th man in the NBA”
It’s sooo Ronald Murray and it’s not even close. 😉
The plans for the Mariners right now seem to be that of rebuilding. Depending on who you talk to, Bavasi had a bit of money to mess around with in the offseason, and yet then again, knowing the Mariners Organization, it wasn’t THAT much. Going and getting Beltre and Sexson were good moves, but it was only the start. I think Bavasi knows what he’s doing, for the most part, in terms of creating a team that will have a mix of MLB ready youth and veteran talent, and he knows it isn’t going to be this year. At the end of this year, we’re projected to ditch a lot of “dead weight” contract money. Some of that will go towards the “back heavy” contracts of Sexson and Beltre, but there will still be quite a bit left over.
When the trade for Garcia happened last year, Bavasi and / or Gillick got what they wanted: two MLB ready players Olivo and Reed. Now, you can argue about Olivo all you want, but Reed has shown flashes of brilliance and probably will improve on what he’s doing now. If the Mariners are going to be making any trades for Boone, Winn, or whomever, they’d be for MLB ready talent who can possibly help in the 2006-2007 seasons. Going back to the post about Yankee farm talent, how much of it is MLB ready? I don’t think necessarily we’ll be trading anybody to the Yankees unless they can dish up people who are ready to go now. Not saying that the Mariners wouldn’t take future prospects, but if they are going to go young, they’re going to take at least ONE MLB ready player in each of those deals.
In the offseason, I think we’ll see a strive towards pitching, although who we go to get is a crap shoot. Jason Schmidt is everybody’s favorite target, which means the competition for him will be stiff. We should be looking at other possibilties in that regard and our own AAA club to see who is ready or will be ready for 2006. I think Cha Seung Baek is better then some people think, but he needs to build confidence and we need to see if he’s 100% healthy. Nageotte and Blackley are both hurt, so God knows what’ll happen to them. Scott Atchison’s injury this year just blows and is, I think, really the icing on the cake of this season. Well, maybe Bobby Mad’s.
In short, if last year was the “wakeup call”, this year is the rebuild and it should be treated as such. So far, the FO started out the season not doing this, thinking mayyyyyybe things could work. It was a slim maybe, but it was still there. I think that the experiment as to the “maybe” is over though, and it’s high time to start thinking about moves.
The question is, who would take what where? A lot of the other divisions aren’t set in stone right now. Someone who’s competing now may only be treading water and may not be competing later. People who aren’t competing now may be by June / July and the Trade deadline. So, unfortunately, before we go and get all negotiation happy, we’ll have to wait and see how the rest of the league pans out.
I, myself, want to see the kids play. I wanted to see them last year, and I still do. I was dismayed that more kids weren’t going to get a chance to play because of Nelson and Sele, but I was willing to give it a shot for the time being to see if it works. My patience on that is over, and it’s time for a youth movement. I’m not saying “get crazy go nuts” and sack all the vets like last year, but the FO and Grover need to play more kids and that’s all that they’d have to do to evaulate propects for 2006.
Play for the future by not wasting time and good talent. AJ Zapp was never used and we lost him before we really knew him. Leone, Campillo, Sherril, and others aren’t getting any younger either. Time is acting like our enemy right now, but it is really our ally. And it is “time” to get moving.
There are no statistics for balls that should be caught.
Yes, there are. Stats that look at play-by-play data show Winn gets to and makes more plays on balls than other left-fielders.
428, yes Brett. Exactly.
Well said TIF. Ought five should be used to sift and mix the talent for ’06 and beyone.
The reason you have to consider trading Winn is that he is one of the few players on this team who (1) could fetch one or more players in return who could fix other problem areas on this team and (2) is not part of this team’s long-term future. There are two younger and cheaper guys playing leftfield in Tacoma this year who likely could come close to replacing Winn’s production next year. It should go without saying that you only trade Winn if you get one or more players in return who will help the team in the near future.
Sorry, Dave — I honestly had no idea that a mere mention of Randy Winn could stir up such controversy in Mariner nation.
Scott Spezio– a low rent version of Jason Giambi.
I have no problem with trading Winn IF you can get something of real value in return. I have my doubts that that would happen though, so for now I say keep him.
Show me these stats DMZ. And how are they the gospel? Do you overlay his traces over somebody from a different team against a different batter against a different pitcher in different conditions in a different ballpark or by some magic that I’m unaware of, can you simulate his play on the same hit ball with say some placebo fielder accurately. You CAN ask yourself; How many gold gloves has Winn won in center or left?
Show me these stats DMZ. And how are they the gospel?
I’m not going to bother. You’ve got your mind made up, and you’re being a jerk about it. If you care to, there’s evidence out there for you. But I don’t see the point any more.
Thread closed.