Julio Mateo
For my first real post in ages — though yes, that was me in the game thread last night — I’d like to discuss Mr. Mateo. Anybody else think he might be a decent option in the starting rotation? He’s been pitching longer outings this season, averaging two innings per appearance and has now pitched 3+ innings twice. Obviously he’d need a bit of time to build up the arm strength to pitch 5+ innings, but he’s probably not all that far away. From a repertoire standpoint, it’s not as if he’s getting the job done with just two pitches, so he could probably hack it as a starter. For a similar pitcher who made the switch effectively, check out Carlos Silva (reliever with the Phillies, became a starter with the Twins last year). Anyway, just a thought as I see our starters have a collective 5.63 ERA.
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87 Responses to “Julio Mateo”
#43: I wouldn’t read too much into Piñiero’s ability to throw a fastball past Manny. Aside from Manny’s hitting a hanging Zito curveball out of the park in the Oakland series, Manny’s looked pretty lost at the plate for more than a week now.
Yeah, that’s a good point. I remember us trashing Bob Wells’ arm that way, by putting him into the rotation in ’96 as well, when we were having very similar rotation problems to now (minus Randy in the rotation).
He came back…once he went to the Twins as a reliever.
I’d bring Campillo up first.
Villone in the rotation is not likely to be much better than Sele.
In the nicest possible way I want to tell everyone Go Mariners!
#11
Pineiro’s stats:
2002 ERA 3.24
2003 ERA 3.78
2004 ERA 4.67
2005 ERA 6.52
Pineiro’s numbers were good in 2002 and 2003. But it’s been a negative trend. He added 1/2 a run to his ERA in 2003
Just wanted to Comment that, I think he was a reliever for part of the 2002 season, and he had like a 2.00 ERA or something, and after they moved him to the rotation, his ERA went up a little… For 2003 he started exclusively, so I think the ERA jump was just attributed to the fact that he became a starter. So, no, I don’t think those two years were a negative trend.
But the fact that he threw close to 200 innings in 2002, and 200+ innings in 2003 might be taking a tole on him for 2004 and 2005…
Peace 🙂
For a pitcher to have started only 12 games in his minor league career, 11 being in the rookie level in 96 and 97, trying to convert him into a starter now doesn’t make much sense. Why risk injury or fatigue to, IMO, our best relief pitcher. Not to mention the psychological damage that could develop should he fail as a starter. What we need to do is bring up Campillo as he’s shown he’s ready for a chance. And eventually replace Franklin with Felix, and Thornton with Sherrill.
It should be noted that Johan Santana came up as a reliever.
eponymous coward said
“I remember us trashing Bob Wells’ arm that way, by putting him into the rotation in ‘96 as well”
Trashing Bob Wells’ arm? I only wish they’d done so. This guy was just awful, awful, awful in his four seasons as a Mariner. I wanted him to pitch less, not more…Kudos to Mike Hargrove, that year’s All-Star skipper, for recognizing that Wells was no All-Star in ’96, even though he was 10-1 when it was time to pick the squad. He went 2-6 the rest of the season…
1995 5.75 ERA
1996 5.30 ERA
1997 5.75 ERA
1998 6.10 ERA
I never thought of Mateo as a stater, but not that I am thinking, I belive it is a good idea. At least to try, can’t hurt.
Both Carlos Silva and Johan Santana started extensively in the minors. They were converted to relievers upon their promotions to the bigs for the purpose of giving them a soft landing. Julio Mateo has never made a start above Rookie ball, and even then had a 16 relief appearances to his 11 starts. He never broke 70 innings in the minors. Santana pitched 160.1 innings as a 20 year old in A ball before being promoted. Silva had a stretch of three years where he broke 160 innings (topping out at 180) as a 20-22 year old starter in A and AA.
This experiment CAN hurt. It can turn one of our most effective relief pitchers into what he was last year: A hurt pitcher trying to defeat batters without his best stuff. It makes no sense to gamble like that when Campillo is pitching well in AAA and waiting for a callup. Don’t even get me started on Felix.
Looks like they did it. Mateo to rotation, Pineiro to AAA, Sherill to M’s pen.
BREAKING NEWS: Pineiro sent down to AAA Tacoma! George Sherrill up from Tacoma to join the bullpen. Mateo starts Tuesday May 17 vs. NY, Moyer starts May 18 vs. NY.
Mateo in the rotation could just be temporary until they feel Campillo is ready. I doubt they will leave Pineiro down there for more than a start or two. They are skipping Sele’s turn this time around — my feeling is if he one more disastrous outing (i.e. knocked out before the 5th inning) he’ll be released…
Amazing. I wonder if certain key figures on the M’s read this blog, or if it was just coincidence?
Actually, I’m sure at least a few people with the M’s check here and other good sites. Perhaps not Bavasi, Hargrove, and the other known names…but I’ll bet a bunch of the guys working for them check the internet for ideas.
HOLY GUACAMOLE!!! WOOHOO!!!!!
Hargrove just announced on the FSN pre-game show that Pineiro will only be down for 10 days, that he will be back up to start vs. Baltimore on May 24th…
Wow, Jason carries alot of weight with the club it seems 😉
Well, should be interesting to see how Mateo can do mentally as a starter. Here’s hoping for a great start!
If Mateo is hitting 93-94 mph that is good news, I have always seen him hitting 91 which is average.
I also think he has more pitches working for him than he did 2-3 years ago making him a starter candidate.
A good wake up call to the guys in the rotation. I have to think Sele is down to his ninth life right now as a M’s starter.
Also Jose Lopez starting at shortstop tonight for Tacoma, would rather see him at short so he could replace Valdez sooner but oh well.
Mistake in my post, Jose Lopez starting at second base, typed too fast.
Oh, and if I was Hargrove I would make sure to take Mateo aside before he starts and say something along the lines of:
“It’s been a long time since you started, and we know it may take a little time until your arm is entirely ready for it. You may be pulled in four or five innings, even if you’re doing well. You’ve proved yourself in the bullpen, and we think you have the talent to do this, but think of yourself as very long relief. You may pitch well and not get a win, because we want to be cautious with your arm. We don’t want to lose you due to injury.”
DMZ said:”I’m so fucking tired of this constant carping about implied tone. Every joke is arrogant, every post or point requires endless caveats and disclaimers to avoid being…”
can we just accept that in a written medium, it is impossible to convey tone and that as readers we (consciously or not) try to provide for the lack? Could we instead try to assume that a post is made at face value? I’m sure that some of my quote or stat-filled ones look as though I am trying to lecture… and I know I tend to be over-enthusiastic with the smileys to compensate for the lack of sound and facial expression.
[lecture-mode on] well, that is why the emoticon was invented in the first place, after all [lecture-mode off]
back to baseball, re: Pineiro, he was pointing out in the post-game last night that he was very aware that he’d missed a lot of pitching last season; that may have made him more amenable to going town to get his mechanics righted.
Sorry to be so off topic, just wondering if there was going to be a game thread?
This decision makes me want to channel a former Boston resident Nancy Kerrigan to ask the question Why? Why? Why?
Hope it works out for Mateo and does not create any long term adverse effects.
Looks like Campillo came out of the Tacoma game in the third inning (only 2 runs given up). anyone hear why?
Supposedly he was being congratulated in the dugout, so it here’s hoping it’s not an injury.
Hargrove supposedly said the are splitting Moyer and Sele in the rotation to not have them back to back. To me, that really say’s Campillo is taking Sele’s spot and they really didn’t want Campillo and Moyer back to back. here’s hoping….
w/r/t MSB’s point
“can we just accept that in a written medium, it is impossible to convey tone and that as readers we (consciously or not) try to provide for the lack? Could we instead try to assume that a post is made at face value? I’m sure that some of my quote or stat-filled ones look as though I am trying to lecture… and I know I tend to be over-enthusiastic with the smileys to compensate for the lack of sound and facial expression.”
There was a question asked (“What could we possibly lose…?”) and I offered a one-word answer. This then was “snide and dismissive” even though it was really a model of brevity.
Your point’s well-taken, and I understand that everything’s potentially misinterpretable, but it drives me bananas to try so hard to try and be open and even-handed, to deal with unreasonable people in a patient and reasonable way and never, ever get the benefit of the doubt. It’s like there’s no credit given: I can be aggressive for months about nuking any steroid comments, and that’ll get read as covering up for Beltre, or Boone, or whoever is that week’s target. I can spend years trying to improve my writing, to constantly try and hone the way I convey information, and I’ll get nasty email about what a sloppy grammarian I am because I make one mistake in one post.
I just… I’m frustrated. That’s all.
Love ya DMZ.
Derek, I wouldn’t take it to heart. Realize that there’s a vocal minority, and then look at the traffic stats of USSM, which I’m guessing are significant, and then relax.
Where’s tonight’s game thread? Please don’t tell me that they’re stopping; I enjoy them a lot.
According to the game tonight, Piniero is spending 10 days (not starting) in Tacoma, Mateo gets two starts, and Campillo is coming up to Seattle.
Oh, and Aaron Sele is starting Monday against the Yankees. I’m sure I can find something else to do Monday night.
Is Campillo coming up in place of Sherrill or is there someone else going down?
They said Sherrill is coming up to help the bullpen, didn’t mention Campy. Also FYI: Grover was saying that sending Pinero down wasn’t injury-related per se, but that his delivery hasn’t been quite right since the injury, so he wants Joel to work on it.
poor Frankie! they pull him out when it’s 1-1 and then the M’s get two homers! he just can’t catch a break….
Any news about Mads? *SNIFF* Last I heard, the doctors had never seen anything like his injury! waaaaaah…..
The difference between starting and relieving is overblown. Your best pitcher(s) should be starting … period. Closers are great, but much less valuable than a decent starter.
On Mateo in the rotation, I don’t think it’s a bad call, at all, given that the M’s have three of their current starters in play, and very probably need to make multiple moves. Joel is a mess (more on that separately), Sele manifestly will not be with this team much longer, and Moyer has been absolutely shelled his last few times out. The team badly needs a stop gap solution while some of these guys get sorted out. Villone was strong-absolutely terrible/strong in the rotation last year, and his effectiveness even in relief this year may well be eroding. Thornton is not now nor has he ever been an effective starter. Would we rather see Andrew Lorraine getting a coulpe of starts? No?? Campillo will be here soon, but they need more than one guy. Between Shiggy and Mateo, Julio is the fairly obvious choice.
Whether the move will have success comes down to whether Mateo can sustain location on his fastball throwing it over twice as many times an inning. Mateo was a two pitch pitcher in the minors, fastball and slider. He never had a change-up, and doesn’t now; that’s why he was converted to a reliever. When he came up first in ’02, he was throwing 93, with good bite to the breaking ball. In ’03, he was sitting more at 91, yeah, but still throwing a good game, in part because he’s always thought like a pitcher unlike most relievers. He’s a flyball pitcher, and gets some Ks, but works the corners well and doesn’t walk many. In ’03 he had multiple 50 pitch outings, but consistently sustained his effectiveness the second time through the order. In ’04, he clearly had a bad elbow from the outset, and lost both velocity and the break on his slider. Thankfully, he was shut down fairly early.
This year, his arm is completely back. Moreover, he’s revamped his repertoire, as was noted in a profile in the paper a while back. He’s throwing a em-two-seamer/em, not a four seamer, but with good velocity, as TIF in #41 notes, getting it up to 92+, with good run to it. He’s throwing a slider still, not a big breaking pitch, but he gets good location on the corners with it. He’s also added a splitter, with the bottom dropping out of the pitch. Frankly, it’s a great repertoire, run the two seamer in, slider away for the corner, and swing-and-a-miss over the split. As Jim Osmer noted, he’s coming in out of the pen and working like a pitcher rather than a thrower, but I think that’s an unmitigated positive, and the hitters can’t figure him out. He has already had at least one 50 pitch outing, and another one or two near that many, without any decline in effectiveness. Because he’s strong-pitching/strong
To be an effective starter, though, he’ll have to throw the two-seamer more than he does now as a percentage of his pitches, both to hold down the stress on his elbow from the slide/split combo, and to set up the other pitches over more innings. So to me, the issue is, can Mateo sustain location on his fastball throwing it twice as much? It may not be as important getting the consistent run on the pitch he does now, since he won’t have to be around the strike zone as much with it starting. If he loses location with it, he’ll have trouble. The other issue, as DMZ and others wonder, is whether or not a high work load was the reason his elbow eroded, and if so whether this will happen again, putting his arm at risk. I will say that I’m leery about the idea of Mateo becoming a starter, and then staying in the rotation for several months, or the rest of the year. If Julio’s effective in the role, the temptation to leave him there will be irresistible, but strong-that/strong kind of usage strikes me as highly risky, yes. A stop gap starter with a full repertoire who clearly knows how to pitch already: that’s not an enormous risk. Frankly, it’s better than the movement of Villone into the rotation last year, because Villone is a thrower without a change-up and shaky location. In effect, Mateo already pitches better than that.
Incidentally, Mateo is nor the fourth (4th) Mariner pitcher in the last 3 years to add a splitter at the major league level. When Shiggy Hasegawa came here, he was sinker/slider, but the word was that in his big ’03 he had a splitter, too. Coming into spring training ’04, Franklin “added a splitter,” although like all of his pitches it was only so-so. It was specifically noted in the paper in camp this year, that when Putz was made the closer in the later part of ’04 Price had him start throwing the split (because Putz did not and does not have a change-up), and that this year (’05) the idea was for JJ to work the splitter a bit more into his repertoire. Now Mateo, who strong-did not have a split in ’02-’03/strong, is throwing one as well, also because he didn’t and doesn’t have a change-up. Guardado has a split, but he learned it in Minnesota to use to righthanders who get a better read on his slider. I think Brian Price is responsible for this selective addition of the split, and personally I think that it’s a good idea to em-selectively/em add this pitch, especially for relievers. For Shiggy and Mateo, it has shown some success, and it didn’t obviously hurt anybody else.
I don’t know how many of you remember, but the Ms used to refuse to teach the split in their minor league system, or even let it be thrown; the organizational preference was to teach a hard two-seamer, but a lot of guys couldn’t master the pitch. It’s true that the splitters reputation as an elbow wreaker has some validity to it. It was a great pitch for Kaz Sasaki, but we also see the downside with the repeated breakdowns of his elbow in the latter stages of his career. But it’s a great pitch in combination with others, so the key is more to mix it in rather than to depend on it for your money pitches.
What that all means for Julio as a starter I don’t know. But he knows how to pitch, and there is no other option as good or better, so.
*sigh* HTML tags and I seem to operate on separate planes.
Sorry, but I think this is a horrible idea. One guy to replace a horrible rotation will not make up for the mess this will cause the bullpen. We all know that Shiggy is not good for long relief. And beyond him (not Villone either) there is no one. This will just make things worse all around. Mateo could have pitched 2 -3 times in a week and now is reduced to one. The pitching could get a lot worse.
What the Mariner’s braintrust is doing with Joel Pinero right now is the archetypal example of everything they’ve done wrong with pitchers for the last half-dozen years and more, and it simply and utterly disgusts me. He was not, NOT, NAHAHAHAHTTTT! ready to pitch when they thrust him into the rotation in mid-April, and their denial/fumble/rushemback move to send him down for ten days now tells me that there is just something profoundly wrong with this organization’s thinking about handling pitchers. The temptation is to drop this pile on Bryan Price, but the organization was doing the same thing before he had significant responsibility in the organization, and anyway it’s the FO’s call on when guys are ready to be on the 25-man, not the pitching coach. You all may not that among the citations of “There’s nothing wrong with Joel’s arm” that we’ve been hearing, _none_ of them have come over Price’s name for attribution; the latest was from Hargrove, and the others I’ve seen were of the unattributed ‘the team thinks’ type.
When pitchers get hurt or lose their effectiveness, the Mariners systematically under-acknowledge the extent and meaning of the injury involved, and systematically rush guys back ‘because the team needs them.’ It is clear to me that Mariners pitchers seldom get adequate rehabilitation innings to get their game in shape, even if their actual injuries have healed, so they’re typically rushed back with poor mechanics and partially healed injuries, which the team philosophy encourages them to ‘underplay’ as well; nearly all these guys get bigger, worser injuries in consequence. We saw this last year with Guardado, who missed most of camp with a knee cartlidge issue; arguably, he got an arm injury out of it as a result. We saw this, again archetypally, with Soriano last year; Rafael probably already had the ligament in his elbow blown, but by rushing him around the minors in the cold while denying that probability for three months, the team guaranteed that he would miss most or all of ’05 also. This happened repeately with Gil Meche. I suspect that if we looked closer at several guys like Baek and Thornton in the minors before and after their arm injuries, or Jeff Nelson in ’03 here we’d find more cases. Last year when Blackley and Nageotte came up, frankly I wondered if they were hurt because their mechanics and control were _the very worst of their career_ during their time with the big league team, and immediately after. At the time, the word on both was, “No, there’s nothing wrong with them physically.” After the offseason, yes, they both have significant arm injuries, and neither has thrown a pitch.
Last year, Joel’s control broke down, and his velocity dropped precipitously. Comments were going up on other rumor sites and boards, “He’s got an elbow problem.” “No, no, no problem [I mean, we’d be _in trouble_ if he had a problem], we’re sure he’s fine.” —Until they shut him down for the second half with a flexor problem. So come to ’05 what sequence do we see after Joel hasn’t pitched in half a year? In camp: “He’s fine, the elbow is fine, he just needs some work.” Joel strains he shoulder first time he cuts loose. “Just a knot, he’ll be fine.” Joel misses almost all camp. “Joel just needs to get his arm strength up, he’s fine.” After the absolute minimum time in on a minor league rehab to qualify for ‘getting his arm strength up,’ Joel is thrust back into the rotation ‘because the team needs him.’ He has no fast ball, but for one start he puts the curve over the plate, really mostly getting by for a few innings with change-ups, he said as much himself. After that, he’s throwing a fastball 5 mph lower than his good years, with poor location. He can’t catch the corner with any breaking pitch, and his control has been consistently poor. After a few starts, his mechanics are a complete mess. Frankly, he looks exactly like he did in May, ’04. And Joel.04 had a bad arm.
I don’t know that Joel.05 has an arm injury. Now, the M’s have been wrong about the extent of their pitchers’ injuries absolutely every time in recent years, but for the sake of this review let’s consider that Joel in fact does not have anything structurally wrong with either his arm or his elbow. He didn’t pitch for half a year. Because he had an injury. He missed nearly all of his innings in camp with an entirely separate injury. He had a manifestly inadquate rehabilitation assignment to get his arm ready for the season given these facts. He has been almost entirely ineffective since returning. The fact that he is being sent down now to get his game together is a tacit and wholly inadvertent admission by the organization that Joel wasn’t ready to pitch effective major league innings when he was rushed in to do just that. ‘Because the team needs him.’ If Price at the major league level, a master of pitching mechanics, can’t get Joel straightened out, it’s laughable to believe that Joel.05 will with ten days throwing on the side suddenly regain command of his breaking pitches and the 5 mph on his fastball that he doesn’t have today. In short, the Ms just decided ‘to skip a turn for him,’ rather then to REALLY focus on Joel getting the time and reps to get straightened out, assuming that he’s healthy and that this can be achieved directly. If the Ms were serious, they’d be saying, “We’ve sent Joel Pinero to Tacoma for 21+ days. He’ll work on his mechanics for 10 days, and get in 2-3 starts to regain his pitching rhythm. There’s nothing structurally wrong with his arm, and as soon as he has command of his game again we have a spot waiting for him in Seattle.” Quite obviously, the Ms aren’t serious about really focusing on Joel getting it together. They’re still denyning that Joel.05 as he is now is not a major league pitcher. He’s a guy with a half-healed arm, inconsistent and mostly poor velocity, no command, who’s taking the ball every five days to try and retain the team’s confidence.
Joel may not be hurt now. If the Ms keep on with this same BS, he will be by the time the year is over. Just like every other pitcher with whom the team has pulled the same BS. To me the heart of the issue may be this: A) After years of young pitchers getting shelled in the Dingerdome, the team built a pitchers’ park. B) They concentrated their drafts on pitchers. C) Most of those pitchers have gotten hurt. D) Few of those hurt have reached a significant fraction of their one-time potential. E) To admit that the team’s developmental model ’95-’05 has failed is just too, too . . . painful for them. F) So they don’t admit that anything is wrong. “Everything’s on track, right? [‘Cause we’d be in trouble if it’s not on track.] Fine.” That’s just speculation, but it’s how I see it. I, personally, wouldn’t be bothered by the team admitting they’d tried one way to go, and things just hadn’t worked out. Denial allows existing problems to get worse and new ones to crop up. And this is what I see yet again with this ‘ten days in Tacaoma [but we didn’t screw up, eveything’s on track] and he’ll be fine’ oobleck the team is pushing, yet again. Yuck!!
This entire sequence has been repeated so many times, one would think that the team, or at least the media good do the epidemological analysis. But no. DISSS-GGUSSSSSSTINGGGG!
Gosh, those are some long posts, Bela! I’ll try and be briefer, but let’s see if I succeed 🙂
Prior to this move I was with Jason on the “Give Mateo a shot in the rotation” bandwagon. I take the points that Derek and others have made but I still think it’s not a bad idea. And according to Sunday’s Seattle Times, instead of being a stop gap, Mateo “will have a chance to win a permanent spot in the rotation”.
Sure this a gamble, but it’s a decent gamble for a couple of reasons. First of all, because Mateo will be arbitration eligible next winter, the M’s need to maximize Mateo’s value this season, either to themselves or to another team in a mid-season trade. Coming into the ’05 season, most people covering the M’s would have thought there was a better than 50% chance that he’d’ be non-tendered at season’s end.
Obviously if Mateo keeps pitching like he has this year that isn’t going to happen. And if Mateo can pitch even half as well in the rotation for 5-6 innings a start as he has in relief, he’ll be a huge improvement over what we’ve seen in the rotation thus far.
I think the biggest reason the M’s are taking this gamble is that in my opinion they have not one, not two but three spots in the rotation that need to be filled short-term. If it was only one or two spots they could fill one with Campillo and hope that they could make do until Felix is ready. But with three spots, they had to take the gamble – it isn’t like they were going to be able to pick anybody of any use up off the waiver wire.
Sele is likely gone if he makes a poor start on Monday and given that he’s pitching against the Yankees, it’s almost a certainty that he’ll pitch poorly. The M’s didn’t really want Franklin in the rotation this year but were forced to put him in when Madritsch went down. He had some good starts but hasn’t been as effective of late. He really belongs in the bullpen.
The third spot that may open up in the next 6-8 weeks is Jamie Moyer’s. The club is definitely not anywhere close to releasing Moyer, not after the way he pitched in April. However, given his last three starts (27 hits in 8 innings!) there is a chance that this could continue, as it did in ’04 (when he went 17 straight starts w/o making a quality start). I think what the club is hoping is that if Mateo and Campillo can step in for Sele and Franklin that if they ultimately have to take Moyer out of the rotation that they can delay that move until Felix is ready (in July or August).
Which would leave us with a rotation of this:
Meche
Pineiro
Mateo
Campillo
Moyer (…Felix)
They really don’t have too many other options. Soriano looks like he’ll be back in June but they’re likely to pitch him out of the bullpen this year. Heaverlo looks like a complete washout (another outing where he gave up 5 runs in an inning last night). Nageotte, Blackley and Baek are all hurt. Clowns like Rich Dorman and Andrew Lorraine are in the once vaunted Rainiers rotation along with Damien Moss — if they get desperate enough they might give him a shot cause he’s left-handed (he’s 1-2 with a 3.66 ERA in 3 starts after returning from suspension).
[deleted, slurs etc]