Future Forty Update
Since I’m going to be busy next weekend, I’ve updated the Future Forty a week early, so the July edition is now online. We have three additions (Jeff Clement, Luis Valbuena, and Thomas Hubbard) to the list, with Clement obviously being the most prominant of the trio. Valbuena is the starting second baseman for the Aquasox and, by most accounts, the best prospect on the team this year. Hubbard has rebounded from a miserable professional debut last year to become one of the best hitters in the Midwest League, but at age 23, well, he should be.
Other things of interest in the system include promotions for Adam Jones and Asdrubal Cabrera, as the two young shortstop prospects each move up a notch. Also, as mentioned the other day, Clint Nageotte is on the rehab trail, and so he leaves the overcrowded land of the injured prospects.
We’re now a bit past the halfway point of the minor league season, and the system is in a similar state to where we believed it was heading into the season. Adam Jones has taken the biggest step forward, and the addition of Clement and the continued progress of Cabrera has given the organization a boost in offensive talent. The pitching continues to be, well, bad. There’s Felix, there’s a big gap, there’s Livingston and Campillo, and then there’s… not a whole lot. The M’s clearly recognized that the lower level pitching is in terrible shape, focusing heavily on pitchers in the early rounds of this years draft. In stark contrast to the Gillick/Mattox years, the system is now certainly heavy on hitters and light on pitchers. As bad as the offense is now, at least there is reason for optimism in the future.
As always, this is a prime thread for minor league questions. I’ll do my best to answer as many as I can.
Comments
37 Responses to “Future Forty Update”
Thanks Dave, this is always really helpful to see. It hurts to see that “Elite Prospects” block blank though. Yet another reason to hope Felix bounces back quickly.
What kind of system do you think is in better shape – one heavy on pitching or heavy on offense?
Basically, what kind of player it is easier to get inexpensively?
Seems like there hasn’t been a lot of news on Nageotte since his back spasms last aug/sept – do we know why he’s been out for so long, and what his rehab is projected to be?
“In stark contrast to the Gillick/Mattox years, the system is now certainly heavy on hitters and light on pitchers.”
Demonstrating perfectly the TINSTAAPP principle, since the M’s were so heavy on pitching, and so few actually made it. Even the ones that did seemingly turned out less inspiring that we thought they would.
The TINSTAAP principle is still stupid.
Nageotte’s had back problems and a forearm issue.
I’d rather have a system heavy on hitters than pitchers, because of pitcher attrition and inconsistency. Especially with Safeco Field, the M’s can build a better than average staff without having better than average pitchers.
I had a couple of questions. One of them is about Casey Craig. It seems like there had been some excitement about his bat after he was drafted, especially considering how low he was taken (18th round? Something like that). But you have him as falling and back to Everett, where I think he was last year. What’s happening with him?
And another question is, could you provide some comparables for your ranking system, to give us an idea of what the difference between, say, a 7 and an 8 is? The Mariners seem to have a system full of sevens and I’m curious how that will play out once they begin reaching the majors, assuming they reach their potential. If 10 is Randy Johnson in his prime, is 8-9 a Miguel Tejada, a 7 a Derek Jeter and so on? I realize your rankings are just rough estimates, but it would be fun to have some idea of comparables for a given grade.
Dave: Who would you rather keep, Reed or Choo? Reed appears to have the instincts to play centerfield while Choo has the speed to compensate for the lack of outfield instincts. Choo on the other hand appears to have a bit more power and patience while Reed has better contact skills. Is Choo more than likely trade-bait?
Also how do you think Doyle should fit into the M’s plans if he stays healthy?
How does Doyle project defensively? Health questions aside, can he play leftfield everyday?
What’s your opinion,if you’ve heard of him, of Andy Jenkins (11th Round pick to the Marlins)? He lit up the Pac-10 at Oregon State this year.
Craig’s battled some injury problems, hasn’t hit for as much power as was hoped, and has gotten a rep as a less than nice guy. The bat is still a possibility, but the combination right now isn’t very exciting to the organization.
A rough guage of what the potential rankings would translate to:
10: MVP or Cy Young Candidate. Albert Pujols/Josh Beckett
9: Perennial all-star, franchise player. Eric Chavez/Tim Hudson.
8: Minor star, good player: Michael Young/Brad Radke
7: Key player on contender: Carlos Lee/Freddy Garcia
6: Average starter or good reserve: Jose Guillen/Russ Ortiz
5: Role player, below average starter: Eric Byrnes/Brett Tomko
4: Fringe reserve: Dave Hansen/John Halama
3: 25th man: Willie Bloomquist/Jae Seo
I don’t think I’ll ever assign a 2 or 1 potential to anyone on the Future Forty. If I do, then the system is in terrible, awful shape, and people deserve to get fired.
Cool stuff, Dave, always appreciated.
I liked Valbuena when I saw him in the opener. He hit the ball with some authority, considering he’s not really a big guy. The early issues with the middle infield defense in Everett should go away with time, I hope.
Keep Reed over Choo, for sure. Choo’s trade bait, I think.
I think the M’s see Doyle as a future DH. He can play left, but not real well, and outfield defense is pretty important in Safeco.
Any news on Clement’s Negotiations? Is he going to Inland Empire Immediately (Tongue Twister) or will he spend some time in Everett?
What’s the lowdown on Campillo’s injury, you heard anything Dave? It’s been really quiet on that front.
Do you expect Rob Johnson to get moved up with Hubbard soon from Wisconsian?
Cheers, Stuart
Dave,
Do you think there’s any reason to hold out hope that the celebrated, but embattled pitchers in the nageotte, blackley, soriano, madritsch group can still form part of a solid major league staff? If not, do you feel that given the system’s strength in hitting right now our focus this up coming off season should be in pithing?
Thanks
Dave,
Do you think there’s any reason to hold out hope that the celebrated, but embattled pitchers in the nageotte, blackley, soriano, madritsch group can still form part of a solid major league staff? If not, do you feel that given the system’s strength in hitting right now our focus this up coming off season should be in pithing?
Thanks
Dave, any opinions on Craig James or Chad Fillinger? Is there some hope either might become a legit prospect? James is maybe a touch old for low-A ball at 22, but his numbers this year look good (26.1 IP, 5 BB, 28 K, ERA under 1) and seem to be in line with his previous experience in the ARL. Fillinger wasn’t outstanding in college or his first minor league experience last season, but his K rates have been good and he’s done well so far this season (46.1 IP, 14 BB, 54 K, ERA under 3).
Dave,
While browsing over at BTF, I came across this thread, discussing Jeff Harris, and describing his peculiar mechanics. Have you seen much of him? Incidentally, the poster ChadBradfordWannabe, is Carlos Gomez, a sabremetrically minded relief pitcher in Northern League.
It depends on when Clement signs, but the M’s like having the Aquasox close, and the Frogs would love to have Clement for at least a few weeks. I wouldn’t be surprised if he started at Everett.
Campillo had some pain in his elbow so they shut him down. He’s been pitching nonstop for like a year, so they’re hoping that he just needs a break.
I think Johnson and Hubbard will both see Inland Empire at some point this year. When, I’m not sure.
I’m more optimistic about Soriano than I am Nageotte, Blackley, or Madritsch. Nageotte’s problems run deeper than just his injuries, while Blackley probably doesn’t have much room for error if his stuff doesn’t come back, and Mads has a long history of arm problems. I think if two of them turn into major league contributors, we should be thrilled.
deleted-don’t hijack threads
Great work, it’s very exciting to look over the list. One question – how do you determine Reward? Without reviving the Great Michael Morse Debate that’s been going on here for the past few days/weeks, giving him a Reward of 5 seems low. He seems to have the potential to be better than that, certainly a 6, possibly a 7 or even 8. Keep in mind that all I’ve seen or know about Morse is what I’ve seen the past few weeks, and he looks more like A-Rod than Eric Byrnes… I know, I know, I don’t want to start that debate again – it just seems like the potential is there, that’s all.
Thanks for the update. Lot’s of fun.
Not to nitpick, but I wonder about the assertion
“Especially with Safeco Field, the M’s can build a better than average staff without having better than average pitchers.”
I think that might be true in terms of looking at the stats at the end of the year, but I’m thinking that won’t translate into W-L. Since the opposing team is always getting the same ballpark-effect that we do, it seems like we would always be at a disadvantage against “average” staffs in any given game.
1) One of the ESPN guys (grian of salt) was writing about the strength of Atlanta’s system, and Schuerholz said their strategy was to stockpile as much high-school talent as possible. This arguably counter to the Moneyball guideline of avoiding high-scholl pitchers. Would you care to argue with John Schuerholz?
2) Given the fairly extreme park effects the M’s deal with, do you think it’s a good idea to draft for your ballpark in these cases? Is it advisable for a GM to do this and also institute a policy like Moneyball? Is it even doable to do both at the same time?
Other than Ichiro, I would think that no one on our team should be considered untouchable. Trading should include those newly signed stars if the deal would bring back something different/better. If this team is honest with itself (a stretch, I know) we should recognize that the pieces we have don’t fit well together for whatever reason.
We need to try to find new pieces that won’t bring any of the last two years of residual stink with them. We need a new nucleus of players who are not even aware of the horrible play and management of the last 3 two years.
I’m no Franklin fan but, for crying out loud he has kept them in just about every game he has pitched and they can’t score runs. Doesn’t even matter whose fault it is. He should go and he ought to grateful for the good bye. He’ll go to another team and watch his career start.
All of this requires a real hard look at the choices made by our FO. Their homerism has absolutely ran amok. As a fan, I really don’t care if the guy is from Washington state or not. I want a team that at least has a shot to win every game and I’m ok with any place of origin for those players. I want to see the home team have fun and play great ball. Being a good guy only goes so far unless they start having a Mariner’s Player Sleep Over Night at your Home promotion. It’s not like I’m having dinner with these guys.
#21: Morse has played about as much as a typical September callup. In such a short amount of time, the impact of Morse’s recent performance, if any, should be on his risk rating rather than his reward rating. An impressive first month in the major leagues should not change anyone’s mind that the quality of the player — he’s the next Carlos Lee instead of the next Eric Byrnes. But it should make you feel a little safer about the Eric Byrnes comparison proving true.
re 24
Yeah, the pieces don’t seem to be fitting together…but shouldn’t the FO figure out why? Otherwise, they’re in danger of doing the same thing that got them into this state.
But I agree they shouldn’t make the homerism a big part of personnel decisions. When all things are equal, sure, give the home boy a shot. But you gotta have competent players in the first place.
re 23
Tailor a team to a park? Hmmm…I dunno…seems more a recipe to cripple a team. You gotta take into account your park (I mean, constructing a team without lefthanded power in Safeco seems really stupid), but you shouldn’t go overboard…Looking for left-handed power and speedy outfielders aren’t things that hurt you on the road–you’re playing to your strengths without overcompensating into weakness.
Question: I feel like I hear all the time about players who were drafting late (20th+ round) making it big at the pro level. I know we can’t really say for sure HOW that happens (or we’d be making a lot of money as pro scouts), but WHEN does it usually happen? Is success or failure at a particular level/age indicative of success or failure at the pro level? For instance, Piazza was drafted in the 62nd round, and struggled his first few years…
It seems like for every theory I come up with there are outliers that debunk it.
Anyone to keep our eyes on that is about to come screaming onto this list?
Eric Carter started his professional career by striking out ten in five innings, what’s the info available on him? Age, rank and serial number if nothing else.
Dave —
Who do you take, based on upside potential, Jeff Clement or Daric Barton and why?
Regarding the home town boys, I wonder if we’ve got it backwards. I don’t think the M’s have their choice of free agents and we’re just choosing to go with the NW guys. Rather, I think that the list of free agents who are interested in the M’s is likely to be heavy with guys who are “coming home”. We probably saw it in reverse with Pavano, who seems to have liked our offer, but wanted to stay on the East Coast.
re 30
Hm. Could be. There’s the Seattle anti-discount at play (where you have to overpay to get someplayers up here). On the other hand, there seems to me to be a bias towards the familiar, as we tend to hang on to players for longer than we need to (Boone, probably Joey Cora) and use players that appear to strike a core with fans (Judy Bloomquist, anyone?).
re the Atlanta Braves philosophy
not sure that this is different from moneyball with respect to position players. But if you’re constantly developing top class talent, you can afford to have a few flameouts and be riskier…That’s not something you can afford with the constricted budget of the As….
Bull. You just couldn’t wait to “Say Goodbye” to Greg Dobbs.
Anyway, I have an odd request:
I would like to know if you archive a lot of the changes. Because what I really want to see is some of the Mariner prospects who have been in the show a while now, and what their original rankings were. People like Meche, Piniero, Putz, etc and some projections on the players that weren’t in the farm system but are stars (Sexson, Beltre, etc).
Just mild curiousity as to whether or not any real diamonds in the rough have slipped through the cracks to become stars. I can figure that guys like A-Rod and Griffey were 10 / 5’s or something, but some of the others I am curious on.
(wish i could quote in white)
“A rough guage of what the potential rankings would translate to:
10: MVP or Cy Young Candidate. Albert Pujols/Josh Beckett
9: Perennial all-star, franchise player. Eric Chavez/Tim Hudson.
8: Minor star, good player: Michael Young/Brad Radke
7: Key player on contender: Carlos Lee/Freddy Garcia
6: Average starter or good reserve: Jose Guillen/Russ Ortiz
5: Role player, below average starter: Eric Byrnes/Brett Tomko
4: Fringe reserve: Dave Hansen/John Halama
3: 25th man: Willie Bloomquist/Jae Seo”
—-
i think this is very cool…
i would think a more refined list should be located somewhere on the future forty page… or at least a random sampling of potential stat-lines or some-such… and i’m not sure if i would put Carlos Lee in the “key player on a contender role”… seems like more of an “8-type” unless your sevens are very very good (and i realize you just kind of threw this together, but i’m still trying to get a read on our guys… he is 29 or so and is looking at a 3rd straight year of around .275/30/100.
… and since it is christmas and you are santa (or it is allowance day and you’re dad), i also would like further “risk” explanation/detail.
#33:
type a pair of blockquote tags and paste the snippet between the tags.
Example: below is what I typed in to make the quote of your post – except that I substituted “[” for “” so that you could see the tags.
[blockquote](wish i could quote in white)[/blockquote]
#34: well WordPress did some interpretation of my characters when I used quotes, so I’ll try again.
Example: below is what I typed in to make the quote of your post – except substitute a “less than” symbol where I’m displaying a “[” and a “greater than” symbol where I’m displaying a “]”.
[blockquote](wish i could quote in white)[/blockquote]
I think the comment about Casey Craig is very interesting. Something we never factor in to players but definitely impacts how the organization views them.
This is really great stuff. Thanks for the effort. Having seen three games in Tacoma over the past couple of weeks I have some observations that I’d appreciate comments on. I’ve seen Felix pitch twice now and even though he didn’t give up a run in either game he was not in any way dominating. Nothing like I remember Soriano at Tacoma–hitters were completley overmatched by Soriano this surely was not happening with Felix. He still has a bit of a command problem and I kind of got the impression a focus problem. He would get runners on base and then bear down–maybe I’m wrong–just my impression. Also I was very impressed with Bettancourt. He is fabulous in the field–so smooth and like Soriano, effortless. The first two games I saw he also looked good at the plate–line drives, hitting with authority–then Thursday night he looked very overmatched every time up. The Tacoma team is very fun to watch right now. With Spiezio, Olivo, Leone, Dobbs, Choo, Doyle etc. they can put a hurt on you real fast. I highly recommend making the trip down I-5 and watching a team that has prospects everywhere–even if some of them are fringe prospects. Be sure and bring a jacket. Thanks for your time.