Future Forty Update
Since I’m going to be busy next weekend, I’ve updated the Future Forty a week early, so the July edition is now online. We have three additions (Jeff Clement, Luis Valbuena, and Thomas Hubbard) to the list, with Clement obviously being the most prominant of the trio. Valbuena is the starting second baseman for the Aquasox and, by most accounts, the best prospect on the team this year. Hubbard has rebounded from a miserable professional debut last year to become one of the best hitters in the Midwest League, but at age 23, well, he should be.
Other things of interest in the system include promotions for Adam Jones and Asdrubal Cabrera, as the two young shortstop prospects each move up a notch. Also, as mentioned the other day, Clint Nageotte is on the rehab trail, and so he leaves the overcrowded land of the injured prospects.
We’re now a bit past the halfway point of the minor league season, and the system is in a similar state to where we believed it was heading into the season. Adam Jones has taken the biggest step forward, and the addition of Clement and the continued progress of Cabrera has given the organization a boost in offensive talent. The pitching continues to be, well, bad. There’s Felix, there’s a big gap, there’s Livingston and Campillo, and then there’s… not a whole lot. The M’s clearly recognized that the lower level pitching is in terrible shape, focusing heavily on pitchers in the early rounds of this years draft. In stark contrast to the Gillick/Mattox years, the system is now certainly heavy on hitters and light on pitchers. As bad as the offense is now, at least there is reason for optimism in the future.
As always, this is a prime thread for minor league questions. I’ll do my best to answer as many as I can.
Game 71, A’s at Mariners
Kirk Saarloos vs Ryan Franklin, 1:35 pm matinee game.
The race to 300 runs is on, as the last two teams in the American League to reach the magic number match up. The M’s have scored 298 runs, the A’s 294. These offensive juggernauts both get to face undersized RHPs who couldn’t strike out your sister. Seriously. Kirk Saarloos has struck out 14 of the 290 batters he’s faced this year, a microscopic five percent. His K/9 is 1.90. That’d make a great ERA, but as a strikeout ratio, not so much. Franklin looks like Nolan Ryan in comparison with his 3.93 K/9. He strikeouts out 10 percent of all batters he faces. For comparison, Randy Johnson has struck out 30 percent of the batters to face him in his career.
So, today, look for lots of balls in play. The team that flashes the better leather probably wins.
Bavasi with fans, Lopez’s future
The Olympian just ran this story about Bavasi talking to some fans. Choice quotes:
“We’ve got to get things going, or you’re going to be talking to someone else.”
And this surprising Boone v Lopez comment:
“Boone will play today,” the general manager said, referring to Wednesday’s game. “But when Jose is in there, there’s a different energy. A different style of play. In the past four games, we turned three doubles plays we wouldn’t have turned. What we needed was the energy.”
If Boone regains his swing, the 21-year-old Lopez will return to Tacoma.
“Hopefully, it works for Bret,” Bavasi said. “If that doesn’t work out, we’ll have to punt and play Jose again.”
It’s couched in “different kind” but to acknowledge that about Boone’s defense… wow
Boone’s impending turnaround
This week’s PI article is on Boone, and his collapse from brief greatness. Boone’s response was to hit a single.
Since the last time I wrote something like this it went “if Sele keeps up like this, he’s clearly the guy to get dropped from the rotation” I can only hope this means we get 2001 Boone for the rest of the year (Sele now leads the team’s pitchers in VORP with 16.3).
It also touches on Boone’s Hall of Fame chances, but not in a whole lot of detail. Boone is not as good as players already enshrined, he’s not as good as other players who haven’t been voted in, and I don’t see how he has much of a chance. I resent the implication that Mariner fans, or any home team fans, have an obligation to support their team’s most marginal candidates zealously because they wore one uniform or another. Fandom can mean support without blindness.
Also, Clint Nageotte made an appearance in the Arizona league, went three innings and struck out six. He’s been out with back issues.
Game 70, Athletics at Mariners
LHP Zito v LHP Moyer. Both regarded as premier left-handed starters only a couple seasons back. Now they face off to see if the A’s might be able to crawl out of the cellar on the back of the M’s.
All-Stars: National League
“Democracy is on trial, on a more colossal scale than ever before.â€Â
–Charles Fletcher Dole, The Spirit of Democracy 1845 (?)
I was at the Reds and Cardinals game last night. Watching such fascinating things you never imagine can happen like Jason Marquis giving up two home runs in 2+ innings. Or So Taguchi collect three consecutive singles, all to right field (one bounced off Brandon Claussen, but still wound up in right field). And Albert Pujols leg out a double, steal third and score on a popfly that can’t have traveled anymore than 200 feet.
And pondering such questions of the universe as: Why does Tony LaRussa bat Jason Marquis ninth in the lineup, when his .978 OPS is second on the team? Or why is Einar Diaz (Einar Diaz!!) hitting for Brad Thompson with two on and two out with the Cardinals down 6 runs in the sixth?
No matter. And there were no ushers busily distributing All-Star ballots. Perhaps it’s a sign of the times at Great American Ballpark.
Ah yes, the National League All-Stars. Again, here are each of the top-five ballot placers at each position (so many too close to call!), with their Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP1 as provided by Baseball Prospectus) in 2005, 2004 and 2003. We here at USS Mariner laboratories encourage you, the fan, to watch as many games as you can, talk to as many educated fans as you can, and come to your own conclusions about who you, the fan, believe are the true All-Stars. And remember: It’s only an exhibition game, and on July 12 there will be 80-90 All-Stars in attendance. (Sorry, that cynicism slipped through.)
Game 69, Athletics at Mariners
RHP Rich Harden (2-3, 2.80) vs. RHP Joel Pineiro (2-3, 5.69)
7:05pm, FSN and KOMO
See how won-loss record can be misleading for pitchers? Oh, and Harden’s making his first start since May 13 after missing a month with a strained stomach muscle. Meanwhile, Pineiro’s allowed just three earned runs over his past two starts (13 innings) and induced 10 and 13 outs via ground balls in those two outings. Hence the importance of keeping the ball down.
Griffey v. Griffey
Concerned that modern ballplayers are cold, unfeeling automatons? Vexed that your All-Star votes are going to these unreachable, unappreciative subjects? Then turn your attention and critical thinking skills toward something that is actually, by its very nature, incapable of feelings — the modern stadium giveaway statue.
On May 24, our own Peter White braved the perilous Kentucky-Ohio border to score a Ken Griffey Jr. bobble-head in a Cincinnati uniform — a piece we’ll refer to as “Reds Griffey”. Tonight, the M’s will give away “Teal Griffey,” third in the “1995 commemorative statues” series.
With these two giveaways occuring in the same season, how could we at USS Mariner Labs not host a classic confrontation between these two diminutive powerhouses?
Maybe a top-ten tale of the tape will help fans on the fence decide whether or not to brave Safeco Field tonight to pick up Teal Griffey. Maybe we’ll help fuel the Internet economy with a rush in consumer spending. And maybe the following will contribute in some small way to peace, leave and understanding.
But probably not.
After the jump are 10 reasons to prefer each statue over the other. With pictures. See the photos, judge for yourself, and feel free to contribute your own evaluations in the comments. Read more
All-Stars: American League
“Democracy is on trial, on a more colossal scale than ever before.”
–Charles Fletcher Dole, The Spirit of Democracy 1845 (?)
I used to get really worked up about filling out my All-Star ballot. I just can’t bring myself to do it anymore. It’s just not a big deal to me. It’s an exhibition game. Maybe that’s a sad thing. Maybe not.
My inner-12-year-old chockful of wonder and idealism would love to see the very greatest baseball players on one field playing against each other. My inner-world-weary-cynic says its a heinous MLB publicity stunt that nobody takes seriously. So why should I?
And thus the dilemma as I sit in the stands, All-Star ballot in hand.
Everybody’s got a system. And I’m starting to believe that All-Star voting systems are like fingerprints and snowflakes. No two people share the same All-Star voting system. The home team. Favorite players. Highest batting average as of May 1. Win Shares over the last three years divided by pi cubed. Best looking. RBI. Whatever. The five contributors to this website can’t seem to agree on who we think are the All-Stars. Except Ichiro!. That we can all agree on.
I swore I wasn’t going to bother. I voted from my gut. Stars are stars, stats be damned, right? Some friends and colleagues didn’t agree with me, so my curiosity is piqued now.
Most every discussion you’ll hear this time of the year focuses almost exclusively on offensive stats. But you and I both know offense only tells half the story. Defense matters, too. Unless you’re David Ortiz.
So I’ve compiled the Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP, courtesy of Baseball Prospectus) for each player in the top five balloting thus far. I’m not trumpeting WARP as the end all savior of the universe statistic. It’s one of many tools to evaluate and compare players. So for your reading pleasure, and for some educated ammo for your next ballpark/barstool discussion of the All-Stars, here are the top five vote getters at each position (as of today), followed by their WARP score in 2005 (current through last night’s game), 2004 and 2003. Any interesting players to me not in the top five, I included separated from their colleagues by an ellipsis. Here’s hoping you have many fruitful All-Star discussions this All-Star season.
But in the words that LeVar Burton taught me, don’t take my word for it…
Japan and/or Ichiro to skip World Cup?
Japan’s participation in next year’s first-of-its-kind World Baseball Classic is up in the air. Negotiations are ongoing, with an important deadline at the end of the month. The Japanese players’ union is the holdup, citing scheduling issues.
If an accord can’t be reached, it would be a big disappointment. Japan’s tentatively slated to be one of the first-round host sites. A baseball-crazy fan base would be disappointed, and the tournament would end up being less interesting.
Perhaps due to this uncertainty about Japan’s participation, both Ichiro and Hideki Matsui appear pretty lukewarm about whether they would want to play.
Personally, I think they’re just taking a wait-and-see approach. The tone of the comments seems to be “we’ll see if this tournament works out, and then we’ll decide.”
This World Cup-style tournament could be great for baseball if the kinks get worked out. May negotiations be smooth from here on in.