Japanese stats and the Hall of Fame
Jim Caple raises — and does not answer — the question of whether stats from Japan should be considered in Ichiro’s Hall of Fame case.
I wouldn’t argue in favor of weighting Japanese statistics on a 1-to-1 basis — that’s why Japan’s own Hall of Fame exists — but realistically, it will have to play in voters’ minds that the guy they’re voting on was an exceptional player for years elsewhere.
Besides, I think Ichiro will have a solid Cooperstown resume based solely on what he accomplishes on this side of the pond. Hideki Matsui, on the other hand, would probably need a lot more points for his achievements with Yomiuri. Those two extra prime years make a big difference.
The Attrition War, Nationals
Part of a continuing series, follow-ups to the initial post detailing the Mariners history over the same period.
Do the Mariners, in comparison to other teams, suffer a higher rate of injury to their pitching prospects than other teams? Here, I look at the Nationals.
Game 62, Phillies at Mariners
Last year, before we implemented comments, I did several running game diaries that were fairly popular. This year, we’ve usually ended up just adding into the comments if we’re watching along, but a few people have said they missed the in-post running diaries, so we get one again tonight.
Jon Lieber vs Gil Meche. Liebery, by the way, has given up 18 home runs already, on pace for allowing 45 on the season. Even weirder? He’s a groundball pitcher, and has allowed just 94 fly balls this year. Safeco and the M’s offense could be just what the doctor ordered for Mr. Lieber.
Oh, and Dave Hansen’s starting for Beltre at third tonight.
7:00 pm pacific “You can’t believe how great it is to get out of the heat and the humidity of the east coast and get back to Seattle…”
Screw you, Dave.
7:01 “Gil Meche is going to have to keep the ball down…”
I’m now convinced that Ron Fairly is dead. He’s been replaced by a hologram, and they’re simply playing a loop of his five favorite phrases.
7:08 Jimmy Rollins, the Phillies leadoff hitter, just got a 5 year, $40 million contract. When he’s at at his best, he’s league average. I know its not easy to find a shortstop, but man, that’s a bad deal.
7:10 “They don’t want to have play with 24 men much longer…”
I would argue they’ve been playing with about a 21 man roster all year.
7:11 “There’s a scout… who thinks that Bobby Abreu is the best player in the game.”
Bobby Abreu is a great, underappreciated player, but anyone who thinks he’s the best player in baseball needs to find a new line of work.
7:20 1,000 hits for Ichiro in the majors. I remember when Alvin Davis got his 1,000 career hit as a Mariner, and how big a deal that was.
7:25 Gil Meche with a strikeout! In other life occurrances, hell hath frozen over.
7:27 When he was coming up through the minors, I told everyone that would listen that Chase Utley was overrated, that he had holes in his swing, and that he’d be lucky to have a career like Todd Walkers. Whoops. Utley’s one of the better young players in the game.
7:30 The M’s have their #5, #6, and #7 hitters coming up. Their slugging percentages are .368, .378, and .154 respectively.
7:32 “Everybody goes through slumps… but eventually, he’s going to come out of it.”
Why is it so hard for people to admit that Bret Boone is just finished as a productive player. He’s 36 years old at a position where hall of famers are done at 32 or 33. Boone’s in a slump the same way Mike Tyson is in a slump. He’s not coming out of it.
7:38 M’s up 2-0 thanks to a single, a bloop double, an error, and a flyout. Not exactly stinging the baseball, but they’ll take the runs.
7:45 I’m not saying that attendance is sparce, but Reed runs the ball down in right center field, then flips the ball into the stands, where both fans fought for the ball.
7:50 Ooh, an in game managerial interview. Those are fun…
7:59 It only took him an hour, but Fairly busts out the “four runs or more” logic. I’m telling you, it’s a hologram, and he’s a tape.
8:02 In case we didn’t hear him the first time he was batting, Thome wants to hit the fastball, according to Ron. I’d imagine we’ll hear this every time he comes to the plate, all series long.
8:10 Whats the point of stopping when trying to steal? Ever?
8:19 It’s pretty rare to see that many called third strikes, especially on breaking balls. The Phillies are taking their patient approach a bit too far.
8:23 Ron Fairly leaves, Dave Henderson replaces him. That’s like passing kidney stones and then being told that you need a colonoscopy.
8:25 Argh! Ichiro shows a bunt on the first pitch with a runner at second and one out. He should be fined 100,000,000 yen every time he bunts with a runner in scoring position. I hate that play.
8:34 Not including the hits tonight, Raul Ibanez is hitting .310/.385/.535 against right-handed pitching this year.
8:35 Fine, it worked, but I still hate bunting with runners in scoring position.
8:46 It might not be a beautiful swing, but maybe that home run will get Hansen elevated past Greg Dobbs on the totem poll of bad bench players.
8:56 It was nice to see Meche throw strikes and get ahead of hitters for 8 innings. But, despite what the papers and announcers will tell you, he didn’t flash the kind of dominating potential everyone claims he has. Just four strikeouts, and a lot of flyball outs. That’s not a recipe for long term success.
9:04 I’d just like to point out that, if Eddie Guardado can get 3 outs in the 9th, the Mariners will fail to score four runs and still win.
9:10 A win! And a two hour win at that. Nice job fellas.
The Attrition War, Dodgers
Special contributor edition. Douglas Fearing writes
I performed the Attrition War analysis for the Dodgers and posted it on Dodger Thoughts. Please feel free to post on your site as well.
(Handy link to Dodger Thoughts)
I will! Because I’m lazy!
I have not edited the original email he sent, so this is still almost entirely his work. If I get a chance, I may go through and compare with notes, etc. Readers who want to help with this freaking enormous research project can either email me to take on a whole team or just look at one in the series, find a player with “unknown” or something, go research them and post the results in the comments.
This is part of a continuing series, follow-ups to the initial post detailing the Mariners history over the same period.
The Attrition War, Diamondbacks
Part of a continuing series, follow-ups to the initial post detailing the Mariners history over the same period. For the Devil Rays and Diamondbacks, the comparison period is limited to years the club existed (and also by Baseball America’s listings).
Do the Mariners, in comparison to other teams, suffer a higher rate of injury to their pitching prospects than other teams? Here, I look at the Diamondbacks.
The Attrition War, Devil Rays
Part of a continuing series, follow-ups to the initial post detailing the Mariners history over the same period. For the Devil Rays and Diamondbacks, the comparison period is limited to years the club existed (and also by Baseball America’s listings).
Do the Mariners, in comparison to other teams, suffer a higher rate of injury to their pitching prospects than other teams? Here, I look at the Devil Rays.
Franchise Players
I’ve been working a lot lately, so perhaps I just feel the need to have a little harmless fun. So, I’m stealing a page from every roadtrip I think I’ve ever been on, and bringing up the totally pointless but still entertaining topic of franchise players. You know you’ve talked about this with your friends before or heard it on sports radio or on ESPN: If you were starting a franchise tomorrow, who would you take?
Well, I’m going to take that a step further. If I was starting a franchise tomorrow and given first pick of each player at a given position, this is how it would go. I’ve slotted players into roles that I feel their talent level matches, so no Josh Beckett as my fifth starter type picks. I’m giving myself a $100 million salary cap, by the way.
Catcher: Joe Mauer – perhaps the easiest call on the whole team.
First Base: Albert Pujols – okay, this might have been even easier.
Second Base: Rickie Weeks – just got called up from Triple-A. He’s going to be a star.
Shorstop: Alex Rodriguez – when a guy is this good, you’ll take his decline phase.
Third Base: David Wright – he’s Scott Rolen without the bad back.
Left Field: Delmon Young – tearing the cover off the baseball in Double-A as a teenager.
Center Field: Carlos Beltran – he didn’t have much competition, though I don’t love his contract.
Right Field: Miguel Cabrera – Perhaps the most talented player of the whole bunch.
Reserve Catcher: Humberto Quintero – you haven’t seen a kid play defense like this since Pudge.
Reserve Corner Infielder: Kevin Youkilis – the Greek God of Great Bench Players.
Reserve Middle Infielder: Alex Cintron – Solid glove, good stick, not good enough to complain.
Fourth Outfielder: Ryan Church – one of the more unheralded players in the game.
Fifth Outfielder: Jason Michaels – lefty masher, underrated centerfielder.
Utility Player: Bill Hall – mostly an infielder, but has the arm and athleticism to learn outfield.
Number One Starter: Roy Halladay – Closest thing we have to mid-90s Greg Maddux.
Number Two Starter: Mark Buehrle – Most underrated pitcher in the game.
Number Three Starter: Brandon Webb – Extreme groundballer finding control again.
Number Four Starter: Dan Haren – average stuff, good command, and an innings eater.
Number Five Starter: Brad Halsey – the very poor man’s Mark Buehrle.
Closer: Brad Lidge – I’m not sure how long he’ll be healthy, but I want that arm in my bullpen.
Righty Setup: Huston Street – Can go several innings and get big strikeouts when needed.
Lefty Setup: B.J. Ryan – Best lefty reliever in the game. And its not really close.
Middle Relief: Chris Ray – you haven’t heard of him yet, but he’s going to be ridiculous.
Long Relief: Julio Mateo – basically perfect for the role.
Spot Starter: Matt Belisle – swing guy who can work in relief or in the rotation.
The ’05 payroll would be in the $85 million range. Once I had to give raises and extensions to a few of the soon to be arbitration eligible types, I’d be getting near the $100 million cap.
So, there you go. For each of the 25 spots on on a roster, those are my “franchise guys”, the ones I’d take if given a choice among anyone in the game at their respective role.
What’s Wrong With Ichiro
For the first time since May 12, 2004, Ichiro’s batting average is under .300. He’s 7 for 42 in June, following up a poor May, and we haven’t seen Ichiro! be Ichiro! in nearly six weeks. With the offense struggling, all eyes go to the team’s best hitter. And, of course, theories abound, and everyone seems to keep asking the same question. What’s wrong with Ichiro?
Nothing. Absolutely nothing. Since 2002, these are Ichiro’s batting averages by month:
.316/.404/.353/.321/.282/.248/.243/.389/.386/.342/.242/.273/.255/.400/.274/.432/.463/.373/.356/.288/.167
Not including this month, Ichiro has had eight months in which he hit less than .300. That’s 40 percent of the months played. It should be expected that, in any given year, Ichiro has at least two months where he hits .300 or below.
Look at those variances above. From .243 to .389. .342 to .242. .255 to .400 to .274 to .432. Ichiro is what he is; consistently inconsistent.
We shouldn’t be surprised by this. In his major league career, 81 percent of his hits have been singles. That’s an astounding figure. The league average in 2004 was 66 percent. Only a few guys in baseball rely on the single as much as Ichiro. Luis Castillo, the biggest singler in the game, sees the same type of huge monthly swings in his average.
Singles, are, by nature, the least reliable type of hit. The difference between an infield single and a 6-3 putout is usually a tenth of a second. A ball finding a hole might get under the fielders glove by less than an inch. Have a run of balls that just don’t quite find the hole and all of the sudden, your singles are outs and you’re hitting .250. Extra base knocks, however, are almost always hits, and a player who drives the ball will be far less suceptible to the swings of random variation.
Every time Ichiro goes through a prolonged slump like this, new theories arise. Remember when the Yankees had figured out how to pitch him down and in? As human beings, we like answers, so we try to figure out what Ichiro is doing differently, what he’s doing wrong, what he needs to fix. We don’t like that the answer is random variation. It’s not a satisfying conclusion, and it doesn’t make us seem like minds who understand the game. Random variation is very real, though, and while it may not be a sexy explanation, it is the correct one.
Ichiro is going to have months where he hits .270. He’s also going to have months where he hits .450. He’s a player of extremes, probably the most valuable in the game when he’s going well and replacement level when he’s not. You live with months like May because you know a month like August of 2004 is coming. With Ichiro, you take the good with the bad, because in the end, it’s an extremely valuable package.
Getting to competitive
The Mariners are 9.5 games behind the Angels right now. If the Angels slack off and play .500 baseball from now until the end of the year, they’ll finish at 86-76. If the Mariners take a much larger step up to play .500 ball, they’ll finish at 76-86. The Rangers playing .500 gets them to 84-78.
The Mariners, to meet a stumbling Angels, would need to win 60% of their games for the rest of their season. That’d be a tremendous turnaround, and let’s be frank — even if we call Felix up and he’s the best pitcher on the staff, even if they find out Beltre’s been replaced by an evil robot and the real Beltre is freed from captivity (where he was able to keep his skills up and so on), and Ichiro goes back to being Ichiro! there isn’t a .600 team in this Mariners squad, struggling to get out.
There’s nothing that says the Mariners can’t or won’t make up a ten-game margin over a hundred games. But the odds are stacked so far against the team being competitive this year that it’s reasonable to give up on that.
Moves intended to make the team more competitive this year, at any cost to the next good Mariner team, should be avoided. I understand they’re probably feeling enormous pressure to scrape for the break-even mark any way they can, but I’d be much happier knowing the front office was looking to build a good team in the long-term than knowing my late-season tickets might keep the gap on the division leaders under ten games.
Game 61, Mariners at Nationals
The most painful part of last night’s postgame show was Mike Blowers trying to to defend the decision to send up Greg Dobbs to pinch-hit in the seventh inning when a fly ball would have tied the game.
As you might expect, his first argument was the tired canard that “this is a hard job, to sit around for a while and then have to hit without getting warm.” (Strangely, some players appear to be able to do this better than other players. I wonder why that is?)
Bizarrely, he followed that up with a “maybe Grover was saving his better pinch-hitters for the eighth or ninth inning, for when you really need to get a run home.” I swear I am not making that up.
It would be cheating to include a pitcher in the following comparison, so I’ll just present the following lines:
.152 .171 .212
.145 .174 .236
One player is the Mariners’ first pinch-hitter off the bench. The other was sent to the minor leagues for his wretched hitting. You guessed it, you’re looking at Greg Dobbs and Miguel Olivo.
Consider the depressing lessons, if any, in today’s game thread. Ryan Franklin (2-7, 4.77 ERA) versus Junior Armas (2-3, 4.91 ERA). TV: FSN. Radio: Komo.