Gil Meche and the Marlins
Okay, my resistance to trade rumors lasted much of the day, and for that I am proud. It’s time now to eschew pride and bring you the latest.
The Marlins are shopping A.J. Burnett, who will be a free agent at year’s end. They’re in discussions with at least six teams, and today a name you might not expect came up: Gil Meche.
Don’t get excited: the Marlins are apparently looking at Gil in a potential side deal to replace a departing Burnett in the rotation if they deal him elsewhere.
It does not seem like the Mariners would be anywhere near the frontrunner to land Burnett anyway. The Blue Jays and Orioles are both wisely interested in adding a starter to help them compete this year, and others indicate that what the Florida Fish are really after is a reliever. (It’s surprising that Eddie Guardado isn’t mentioned as a target, but the Marlins apparently love Jorge Julio).
That’s not certain, since Gustavo Chacin is cited as the key to a possible trade with the Blue Jays … but then, nothing is certain in this sort of thing.
Comments
48 Responses to “Gil Meche and the Marlins”
If there is any indication that Burnett is wanting to sign a long term deal with the team he is traded to (ala Freddie/White Sox,) the M’s need to get in on this if at all possible. Burnett is, in my eyes, the #1 guy in next year’s free agent pitching crop, and after him the quality takes a serious drop. Jeff Weaver? Yech. Not really sure the M’s have the parts needed to bring in a guy like this, but it doesn’t mean they can’t try. But only if he’d be interested in a long term deal.
For Gilly’s sake, I hope Leo takes a flier on him this offseason in Atlanta. Get him in the magical career revival machine that is the Braves rotation and he could finally realize some of that sky-high potential.
Know it is a pipe dream but if there were anyway possible for M’s to trade for Burnett (only if an extention is agreed upon) it would be great to have him in rotation.
Don’t feel as optimistic regarding any free agents wanting to come to Seattle. The minors pitching appears grim.
It appears M’s do have some players that may help contending teams. One can only hope Front Office uses the advantage to receive high return. It would seem logical that some contending team would be willing to trade premium for at least Eddie just to keep him away from competition.
The Nat’s are seemingly out of the Guardado sweepstakes as they just signed their stretch drive LOOGY… Stanton.
What are the odds that the M’s could pry away a Dan Haren type, like the A’s did before the season began? I would think that Guardado would be worth that calibre of prospect, and I see this as perhaps the M’s only viable option for re-building their depleated rotation. Do any of the potential trade partners have this kind of prospect at AA or AAA right now?
Based on the problems the starting rotation is likely to have in ’06 and the unlikeliness that the offense will be significantly improved (even from 14th in every category to 7th or 8th in the league would be a big improvement), I really don’t see the M’s contending next year. I agree with going for younger players, and I think that they should try to get as many quality, young AAA players as they can right now.
Jeff:
A personal message, since I don’t have your e-mail. I’m missing Saturday’s Safeco event because our former Kitsap Newspaper Group colleague, Vince Dice, is getting married in Poulsbo. He and I were talking about you last night and it probably would be excruciatingly cool if you were to drop him a note at vdice@kitsapsun.com and wish him well.
Jim
2006 Starting Rotation
1: King Felix
2: Joel Piñiero
3: Jorge Campillo
4: Bobby Madritsch
5: Ryan Franklin
A number 1 like Burnett would make that rotation a whole lot shinier. Daisuke Matsuzaka if he posts would bring a smile to my face as well. After those two, I’m not excited about anyone else. As an aside, if we sign Furcal I’m going proform physical violence upon the Mariner Moose.
I was just watching ESPN Web Gems, and Ichiro’s wall climbing catch was the #1 web gem for the first half. 🙂 congrats Ichiro!
I know that the M’s starting rotation couldn’t strike out Willie Bloomquist with the game on the line, but how bad are they at the K/BB ratio? Here’s a list of teams and the 5 pitchers with the most innings pitched so far this year, and the pitchers’ K/BB ratio:
NYY (RJ 4.88; MM 2.96; CP 3.11; CMW 1.41; KB 3.00) Average: 3.07
FLA (DW 3.65; AJB 2.78; BM 1.81; JB 2.78; AL 0.87) Average 2.38
TB (SK 1.46; HN 1.13; MH 1.71; DW 1.87; CF 2.26) Average 1.69
SEA (RF 1.14; JM 1.65; JP 1.56; AS 1.21; GM 1.27) Average 1.37
Yes, the average Tampa Bay starter (and I’m guessing that the 5 pitchers with the most innings pitched have provided the bulk of the starts) has a better strike out to walk rate than even the best M’s pitcher (at this stat). That is sad. Granted, strike outs aren’t everything. but they can certainly help a pitcher have success, combined with limiting the number of free passes.
Honestly, I’m not sure I want any of these guys back next year, but replacing 5 starting pitchers is likely a recipe for disaster. Any way you look at it, the M’s rotation is in trouble next year. Even if Piniero improves (unlikely) and Moyer stays for one more year and pitches as good as can be expected (even more unlikely), it just doesn’t look good.
From what I’ve read, the the Fish are interested in Julio mostly because of Burnett’s interest in Baltimore. I’ve seen numerous reports of him wanting to be traded there and sign a long term deal.
Saluboy-
That rotation wins nothing. It has a shot with those two FA signees, but relying on an 18 year old as your #1?
I’d almost consider making Soriano a starter next year if it is going to look like that.
What about Blackley?
I think we need to trade for a Cory Lidle type innings eater. We can look at next years non-tenders and try to find a bargain is my opinion.
Preston Wilson to the Nats for Zach Day.
Felix is 19. He will turn 20 very shortly after opening day 2006.
But the point is intact. Very, very few pitchers reach the major leagues before age 20 and the results have proved its a risky idea. Putting such a young player at #1 doesn’t help matters either.
Official on ESPN News
14: That official? I can’t find a verification anywhere.
ah.
That’s a lot of AAAAers in the AAA ASG.
Your nightmare Seattle Mariners 2006 rotation:
1. Ryan Franklin (ace)
2. Jeff Weaver (signed as free agent to an expensive multi-year pact)
3. Jamie Moyer (wants to retire as a Mariner … in 2010)
4. Aaron Sele (signed to a multi-year deal)
5. Jorge Campillo
DL: King Felix and every other semi-promising young pitcher in the Mariners’ organization.
Mariners Baseball. Catch the Fever!
#20: Jeez, as long as you are conjuring up such a disgusting brew, why not bring Jeff Nelson out of the bullpen and give him a multiyear deal?
re 21
SHHHHHHHH!!!!
How is Nageotte looking for next year? He’s probably better suited for the pen, but I’d take him over almost anybody we have now short of Pineiro or Hernandez in the rotation.
And this Bobby Livingston kid seems to be making some noise in AAA, if he has a strong spring training 2006, can we keep him out of the rotation?
Side note: I’m tired as hell of Bavasi’s shenangens.
We need to get a Billy Beane/J.P. Ricciardi/Dan Douquette/Theo Epstein type in here.
Eric Byrnes also traded to Rockies for Jay Witasik? Also picked up bullpen help.
26: Is that official?
When Payton went to Oakland, I instantly thought he would be re-dealt, doesn’t seem like much of a moneyball type player. I guess Byrnes is the man out of the Oaktown OF.
With Beane, every action of a trade has some kind of reaction following it. Such a genius.
Ya official. There were other players involved couldn’t catch it all. But it was a beat writer for the A’s who mentioned it on espn news.
Couldn’t the M’s send Willie Bloomquist to NYY to play CF? Our broadcasters say he’s the best CFer on the roster.
They got Joe Kennedy too.
I think it would be very much in the Ms interest to trade Gil Meche now, before _this_ trade deadline. I like Meche in many ways, and always have. —But he’s not improving. If anything, he’s regressing, and his consistently declining strikeout rate foretells a future that shouldn’t be purchased with a multi-year. This means that if the Ms keep Meche until the offseason, they’ll have to offer him arbitration, and _then_ try to trade him, a dicey proposition. Now, on the other hand, there are many teams in the market for a pitcher, and the best possible deal could be had.
Do it NOW, and build for the future, since he’s not going to be kept later on anyway.
Follow up and details:
Looks like the cash from the Boston deal got moved.
http://oakland.athletics.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/press_releases/press_release.jsp?ymd=20050713&content_id=1130466&vkey=pr_oak&fext=.jsp&c_id=oak
This writer seems to think Payton will be the 4th outfield, alot like Byrnes. Though this brings up the question: “Wasn’t that why he wanted out of Boston…so he could play every day?!”
33:
The A’s have options. Hatteberg, Swisher, and Dan Johnson all play 1B as well. One of them will regularily DH as well. They platoon to their advantage, and a good bench isn’t a problem down the stretch and in the playffs.
59 games does seem like quite an improvement though…
Anybody know of any good Oakland blogs?
#36: elephantsinoakland.com and athleticsnation.com
#32: “The cash” in the Payton deal was almost certainly the same cash that came from the St. James Fathers to the Red Sox when Payton came to Boston in the Dave Roberts trade. It was basically the difference between Payton’s too-rich salary and Roberts’s salary.
I doubt that cash is getting moved around, but money is, they say, fungible.
Either way, I still feel that we need a new GM.
One that:
1) Knows what’s what.
2) Has enough testicles to make a deal.
I saw the Chacin-Burnett rumor in the Miami Herald (they claim Burnett wants to reunite with his old Marlins pitching coach, now with the Jays) and was thinking it would be nice if the M’s could get in on something like that in a three-way deal — get rid of some relievers, get a starter for next year.
Wow, I wish I had Zach Day on my Hacking Mass team. His ERA is already terrible, think what it’ll be in Denver. And Rockies pitchers were not allowed to start with, but any pitcher traded there still counts. Anyone who has Day now has the only legal Rock pitcher. Whiplash!
Every time I despair about M’s pitching I just take a look at Eric Milton and the other studs they have over in Cincinnati.
Well, stand by on Milton.
Puny moves by Beane and that may be one of the last whimpers for Billy Ball. Trading for Colorado castoffs! Ugh.
re #31:
IOW, Bela, you believe that the time to trade players is when their trade value is down?
Seems to me that:
1. Players go through cycles; and
2. Trading a player when his value is at its peak is a better strategy than trading a player when his value is near it’s bottom.
When I put those two together, it suggests to me that the time to trade a player is when he is playing well – that is, at the very time when it seems like trading him is stupid because he’s so valuable to the team.
Bavasi should be abit patient at this time. New York plays Boston this weekend M’s play Baltimore. Hopefully our pitchers will pitch well the Yanks and Sox beat each other up and all three Eastern teams desire M’s players driving up their value.
Steve:
I don’t think the words you put in Bela’s mouth were fair.
Your “IOW”s doesn’t seem to be what he was saying at all.
His point, to me, was not “trade when his value was low” but rather “trade now becuase his value is only going to get lower.
Right now some people still view Meche as a starter with potential. Bela seems to feel that he IS at his high point… rather the high point he has left.
As always, and with everybody, depends on what you can get for him.
Meche has been given every opportunity to become an accomplished, consistent pitcher for Seattle. He can’t do it. He may never but I’d bet something valuable that he’ll never, ever, ever do so in Seattle. He stands a better chance elsewhere.
Personally, I don’t know anything about what makes a good pitching coach and what Bryan Price’s qualities are, but it does seem like a whole shitload of players leave the M’s and do markedly better elsewhere. Batters too, of course (alas, sweet Guillen), but given the injuries to 90% of the minor-league pitching prospects and the psychological or physical collapse of the big-league guys (Garcia. Sasaki. Pineiro. Meche. Madritsch.) at what point do we say it’s not the players, it’s the way they’re trained and coached?
Or have folks here at USSM already said that? Has the baseball world in general? Clearly, the organization refuses to think so.
re 47
Hm. I’m not so sure that many ex-Mariners do that well….particularly pitchers (at least not more than usual). But I’d be careful of focussing in on Brian Price as the reason why organizational pitchers are breaking down and getting injured. Until you pinpoint exactly what is going wrong, you’d be making changes blindly…for all we know, Price could be pushing for exactly the changes needed to avoid injuries, but is getting under-mined by old school people in the organization. (For example, we know there’s at least ONE person above Price who’s proven he’s been abysmal at player selection and development).