Portrait of the pitcher as a young man
“Once upon a time and a very good time it was a tiger coming down the road and this tiger met a nicens little boy named King Felix…”
5.0 – 3 – 2 – 1 – 2 – 4 – 0
Remember that line. Make it a locker combination, password or something. It’s momentous stuff.
81 pitches. 49 strikes (that’s 60%). And that’s with a Wendelstedt strike zone shrunk to the size of the womp rats I bull’s-eye here in Kentucky. I mean, for crying out loud, when I was 19 I was sleeping through my sophomore statistics class.
Using the USS Mariner super-computer I’ve found that the first mention of Felix Hernandez on this website came on June 23, 2003 in this minor league recap back when King Felix pitched in my former stomping grounds of Everett.
Seems it was just yesterday that Dave was telling me,
“Get used to hearing his name folks, because the M’s absolutely love this kid. He’s been referred to as the best arm they’ve ever signed internationally. They’re going to baby him in Everett this year, but he’s got a world of potential.”
That was over two years ago.
And yes, Dave’s House o’ Tarot will be open all week.
Comments
98 Responses to “Portrait of the pitcher as a young man”
43 – The Brewers just extended Sheets this year and I don’t think they would have done that without plans to keep him (they could have let him play out the season under his old contract). You know, I think they can afford one $10 million contract – think of all the young positional players that they’ve got coming up who will be playing for next to nothing. And you look at their record, they’re still in the playoff hunt. In short, I don’t think the Brewers as a ‘fire sale in the making’ like they have been for the past 10 years. I think they’ve turned a corner as a franchise.
Oops. I stand corrected. Mads is a southpaw.
Personally speaking, I’d prefer to have a rotation full of power arms (read: strikeout pitchers) than a bunch of pitch-to-contact guys like we have now. I do think that it’s good to have at least one lefthander in your rotation so that the opposing manager might be forced to make some adjustments to their lineup and their comfort zone.
I just got my tickets for Tuesday’s game. Thanks for reminding me Dave about that Mariners ticket promo they sent out.
Here is the link in case some of you don’t have it:
http://click.mlb.com/ct/click?q=5e-ss5dIn0qt0dpzPnhw4~5ca6jzRRR
You have to type in the promo password as well, which is RAUL.
See you all there.
I think most teams prefer power arms to pitch-to-contact guys.
If he is starting Tuesday thats great news. If they keep him every 5th game like that, I’ll see him against the Yanks on Aug 31. (knock on wood)
I always want to see a pitch to contact guy, or two, in the M’s rotation. Safeco field and the defense that we generally put out there are built for such pitchers. To not staff the rotation with an economical finesse guy or two would be equivalent to putting too many singles hitters into the Rockies lineup.
50, agreed, I don’t believe Sheets will be available. The brew crew looks like it could be really good next year
Thanks Dave. It is still frustrating that the front office pursued injury-risk Jaret Wright (who presumably would have bumped Franklin to the pen), yet passed on Millwood even though he accepted a contract for less money and with less risk than what the M’s were willing to give Wright. Now, Cleveland will offer him arbitration and either get to keep him for a reasonable salary or get a couple of draft picks for him. Shapiro is one smart guy.
What Cleveland does this offseason will be very interesting. They want to bring Millwood back, but I think they realize that the market is going to be absurd, so they may just cut their losses and take the draft picks. They’re not thrilled with Sabathia, and he’s owed $7 million next year, and rumors around the game had him available at the deadline. But they’re good enough to contend next year, and I don’t see them just punting their pitching staff just because of salary concerns.
I wouldn’t be surprised if the Indians made a few huge trades this winter.
Off Topic but Doyle is coming back up! Many more roster changes today.
Just booked my tickets, Terrace Club section 244 row 1.
Never sat in the terrace club before, should be fun!
60 – That’s too bad, Millwood seemed like he might be an ‘under the radar’ type player while the Red Sox, Yankees, et al, bid up the market for Burnett. But I guess the market is that thin, and it’s hard to ignore that 3.12 ERA. What do you think it would take to sign Millwood?
Millwood gets a Pavano type deal, probably in the 4/40 range. Millwood’s better than Pavano, though, so that might be as close to a “bargain” as we see this offseason.
Is it just me? I don’t recall ever hearing the phrase “pitch to contact” before this season, and now I see it fifteen times a day. “Finesse”, “junkball”, “let ’em hit it”, “ground ball”, etc. — yes, but never “pitch to contact” before now.
I think that’s probably a deal we’d have to try for. Unless we’re making a play for Morris, Millwood’s the best pitcher out there who doesn’t speak Japanese.
Thanks, Dave. I guess we’ll have to hope Cleveland can’t find a market for Sabathia and then see what happens from there.
Oh, Cleveland will find a market for Sabathia if they put him out there. The M’s would be near the top of the list. 25-year-old lefties who throw 96 and have several years of success in the majors don’t go on the trade block very often.
So, how long before Our Dave gets snapped up by some team (hopefully Seattle) to beaver away in the front office, with a very specific “don’t be going and blabbing any of this on the blogs” clause in his contract? Because, no offense to anyone else here, but he seems to be a step above blogger level in his perceptiveness and analysis, if you know what I mean.
Might have to shave off the beard, though. Of course, if you were a player, you’d be contractually obligated to sport any of several contenders for “stupidest goatee ever”, so that’s something.
Felix-poo get me up out of this mess . . . (from joyce to potter and back)
The beard’s gone. It was a fun experiment, but clean shaven normal looking Dave is back.
Slight derail, and apologies if it’s too far off-topic. Authors, delete away if it’s too much of a hijack, but I figured I might get a good answer here.
Anyone sat in the Terrace Club before? Is it worth the extra dough that I’ve already paid for the tickets?
The description of it on the M’s website makes it sound nice, padded seats, nifty concessions, etc, but is it really a superior experience?
I recommend the TC. No waiting for food or restrooms. Great view of the field, and great perspective on line drives (although there shouldn’t be very many of those on Tuesday night). It’s worth the extra dough, IMO.
Anyone sat in the Terrace Club before? Is it worth the extra dough that I’ve already paid for the tickets?
The description of it on the M’s website makes it sound nice, padded seats, nifty concessions, etc, but is it really a superior experience?
Terrace Club has:
— Waitstaff who will take your order and deliver your food (thus the “extra fee” on the tickets)
— Lots and lots of shade
— A bar
I don’t think it’s worth it, personally. You can get a pretty similar view in the first rows of the upper deck for less. Yeah, no wait staff, but with as many TVs and speakers blaring the game on the upper deck concourse, you’re not going to miss THAT much.
68 – Interesting. Hope you don’t mind my exploring this Sabathia question further, but a) why do you suppose the Indians are frustrated with him, other than his rocky performance this year and b) to what do we attribute his rocky performance? I guess I’m giving Cleveland and Shapiro a lot of credit – if they don’t want somebody, I’m incline to think there’s a good reason to be wary.
#72.
In my opinion:
Pros:
Better bathrooms, better seats, more shade on the super sunny days (and warmer on those chilly nights), easy access to standard game food/drinks, in seat service.
Cons:
So-so view for the money, feels a little isolated from the game (could be a good thing depending on how you feel about the crowds), farther from the good park grub.
#72 Jeff, there’s some discussion of the Terrace Club in http://ussmariner.com/?p=2665
Meanwhile, Chris Karhl continues to be ignorant of baseball west of the Cascades. From the Transaction Analysis today:
“Recalled RHP Felix Rodriguez from Tacoma; optioned RHP Clint Nageotte to Tacoma. [8/4]
“It took some doing to work up the nerve to finally do it, and call up Rodriguez.”
Aren’t the BP guys supposed to know something about baseball, like THE NAME OF THE BIGGEST PITCHING PROSPECT SINCE MARK PRIOR?
Why do I keep my subscription again?
Because, no offense to anyone else here, but he seems to be a step above blogger level in his perceptiveness and analysis, if you know what I mean.
This is Dave’s world. I’m happy to be a supporting cast member.
Freshen your drink, Mr. Thornton?
““Recalled RHP Felix Rodriguez from Tacoma; optioned RHP Clint Nageotte to Tacoma. [8/4]”
You’ll notice it’s also linked to Felix Rodriguez’s info. That took some doing, to get it wrong three times.
Even though I don’t work there, I generally send in corrections for this kind of stuff, just because I still have friends there.. I feel like giving up today. Rodriguez. Man.
Regarding Sabathia, I will defer to Dave, but the scuttlebutt is that very generally speaking, Sabathia is to Cleveland as what Garcia was to the M’s. There is a perception that Sabathia has not pitched to his potential, he lacks maturity, and he does not take care of himself (okay, that last is one fairly obvious). With his big payday looming after next season, Shapiro may want to trade him now at his peak value for a bounty of cheap prospects (like the A’s did with Hudson and Mulder, or to a lesser extent, like the M’s with Garcia) rather than make the serious financial commitment to a guy about whom they have concerns. A team with more financial flexibility and with bigger problems in the rotation (like the M’s) would be more willing to gamble on that big, fat, multi-year contract.
Back to Felix really quickly. The P-I has a pitch by pitch chart of Felix’s performance, but is not availible online. Anyone know where else that info can be obtained from? Or maybe someone on the board possibly, just maybe, has some sort of connection at the P-I to get this info?
Grizz basically nailed it. The Indians are a very forward thinking organization, and they’re staring at owing Sabathia $7 million in 2006 and then having him be eligible for free agency as a 26-year-old. Unless he just tanks next year, he’s almost certain to get a 4 or 5 year deal for around $10 million a season, so, they’ve got to decide if thats something they want to fork out.
Considering that his weight has been a problem, he’s having the worst year of his career, and he hasn’t been the frontline guy they expected him to be, there’s little real desire to give him a big paycheck. So, if they cash him in this offseason, they could apply that $7 million towards a different pitcher (or maybe try to bring Millwood back), plus get the two or three interesting young players they’d fetch in trade.
I think CC gets moved this offseason. And I wouldn’t be surprised if he landed in Seattle.
Yeah, I knew you’d take it the wrong way, Derek! Trust me, I’m not knocking your skills, perceptiveness, etc., or your writing ability. It’s just that I’m not sure how high writing ability is on the list of things that’s going to tittilate an MLB front office. I’d hire you both in a minute if I was running a franchise.
Hey, that’d be nice. I’m at work, though, so just a double for now. Oh, and hey, is there someplace around here I can get these shoes shined while I’m taking my massage? I’ll need ’em by 1:00 PM. Here’s a buck. Thanks. Oh, and, uh, there’s another buck where that one came from if you forget to mention these two swimsuit models to Mrs. Thornton, if you catch my drift.
82 — the Gameday is still up at mlb.com on yesterday’s scoreboard. Click on the pitch-by-pitch. It’s all there.
Yeah, I knew you’d take it the wrong way, Derek!
No, no, no, I was trying to be funny, but to be clear, I didn’t take it the wrong way — if I’m not Dave’s biggest booster, his parents must be out whacking people to advance his career. I’ve bugged teams to hire him. I’m a huge fan.
I’ve bugged teams to hire him.
After posting this, I realize that this comment raises an obvious follow-up, which I can’t answer entirely, so I’ll say this:
– this is true
– not the M’s
– yes
– can’t say
85 – Thank you.
This may sound a bit to early to say, but how much money do you think the Mariners will have to spend on making improvements?
I mean we have some young talent but do we wait and see what they can do or play the market for another power bat.
I would rather see Bavasi spend the money to make improvements to the rotation and have the young players try their stuff next year..and see where it goes from there.
Sabathia’s performance this year has been a real shock. I tried, but failed, to get him on my fantasy teams when I drafted. I thought he had an easy shot at winning 15-20 and having a real breakout year. I’m sure the Cleveland guys have to be extremely frustrated.
An additional concern is that pitching a full year at his current weight might be doing something to his mechanics, e.g., damaging his elbow, shoulder, knee, back, etc.
If the Ms try to get him they should do their usual thorough job of evaluating his health and mechanics so he doesn’t end up on the DL. I’ve seen other clubs really take a step backwards when their pitchers get hurt. We don’t need that kind of bad luck around here, let me tell you.
“should do their usual thorough job of evaluating his health and mechanics.”
*snicker*
The C.C. Sabathia notion is pretty interesting one. It never crossed my mind that the Indians would think about moving him. That said, I can understand the Freddy Garcia comparison. I hate to say this, since I don’t know the guy, but Sabathia kinda seems like a punk. The hat sideways thing, the baggy pants, the clear lack of conditioning: he just strikes me as a guy who is pissing away a lot of talent.
That said, he is a guy who could be a steal if he puts it all together. I wonder what it would take to land a guy like that? Adam Jones, Bobby Livingston, and a lesser prospect? Interesting.
Hey Dave,
Two questions:
-Has there been any word on Daisuke Matsuzaka and the chances that he will be posted? I think that he would be a worthy risk. If he passes a rigorous physical, it would be a good way to add a good young pitcher without spending a whole lot of money (at least, money that counts toward the payroll) or giving up draft picks.
-Any other starters that might be on the block? I wouldn’t be suprised to see Zito get moved while his value is high. Kerry Wood might be available if anyone would want him. Any other ideas?
FYI, Felix’s nickname at Baseball Prospectus is apparently ” “, as he appears sinisterly with no name in their list of Rookie Pitchers by VORP report. Which report he currently stands 32nd on, with 1.3 VORP in his 5 innings. That’s well behind Harris, a tad behind Sherrill, tied with Campillo, and well ahead of Thornton and and Nageotte. These numbers are of course immensely valuable, coming as they do for all but Thornton in a tiny sample. Look for Felix to climb this chart rapidly. I doubt he has time to move past the leader, Toronto’s Gustavo Chacin, before the end of the season, but you never know.
Jerry said:”The C.C. Sabathia notion is pretty interesting one. It never crossed my mind that the Indians would think about moving him. That said, I can understand the Freddy Garcia comparison. I hate to say this, since I don’t know the guy, but Sabathia kinda seems like a punk. The hat sideways thing, the baggy pants, the clear lack of conditioning: he just strikes me as a guy who is pissing away a lot of talent.”
see if these make you feel better:
http://www.cleveland.com/search/index.ssf?/base/sports/11224567494180.xml?s5tri&coll=2
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2047624
peter – i like the use of joyce’s famous first lines… nice touch.
Well, I missed the Sabathia extension. My bad for the incorrect information on that.
I still wouldn’t be surprised if they moved him, though.
I do think that the Sabathia idea would a good one. I also think that Daisuke Matsuzaka would be an option well worth looking into. If the M’s could take some steps to make sure that his arm is sound, he could be a great addition. However, both of these options depend a lot on other teams, and I think that the M’s will need to go to free agency to add at least one starter.
As several people have pointed out, the free agent market will be pretty thin this year. Perhaps Dave is right, and AJ Burnett might command $$$ in the $13 mil/year neighborhood. I don’t think that teams will go beyond 4 years, though. Although the market did go crazy last year, with mediocre pitchers getting a lot of cash, teams haven’t seemed willing to go beyond 3-4 years with pitchers. This is good.
If the M’s have to decide between Kevin Millwood, or perhaps Matt Morris, at 4 years, $40 mil, and Burnett for 4 years, $52 mil, I still think that you would have to consider Burnett. Millwood and Morris have had issues in the past, and neither is a real, dominant ace pitcher. With Burnett, you are getting a guy who can throw in the mid- to upper-90s and strike out more than a guy per inning. Morris and Millwood are both good pitchers, but they just don’t have dominant stuff. As mentioned above, and in a really good article at Baseball Analysts, groundball tendencies plus strikeouts is a recipe for success, and Burnett has that. Millwood is a flyball pitcher, and Safeco will help him. Morris is having a good year, but he doesn’t miss many bats either. Morris and Millwood are both good #2 or #3 pitchers. Burnett is an ace.
I think that Burnett, even with his injury issues, is worth $3 mil/year more than Millwood or Morris. Burnett has a lot more upside. He is a guy who could win a Cy Young. In the playoffs, he is the type of dominant ace that you need. I think that that is worth a little extra cash.
You’re overrating Burnett’s talent and underrating his bad mechanics. Burnett is a high risk arm. He’s got just as good of a chance to be the next Darren Dreifort as he does to help the team that signs him.