Updated Future Forty
Dave · August 8, 2005 at 8:27 am · Filed Under
Mariners
A few days later than I had hoped for, but we have a new Future Forty. A ton of changes on this one, for obvious reasons, as the M’s acquired four new players, moved several around, and I’ve adjusted the risk and reward ratings for players who have changed my mind recently. Among the activity:
We welcome Yorman Bazardo, Jesse Foppert, Mike Flannery, and Natanael Mateo to the system. All four find a place on the Future Forty, though at varying levels. Bazardo is the best prospect of the bunch, mostly because he has the best shot of actually making the major leagues as a starting pitcher. Foppert could start or relieve, but with his injury history and lack of a true offspeed pitch, a lot of people expect him to end up coming out of the bullpen. Flannery and Mateo are both power arms who are strictly relievers.
We waive goodbye to Daniel Santin, Ryan Rowland-Smith, Cha Baek, and Brandon Moorhead. Santin’s being classified as a DH, and no one thinks he’s going to hit enough to make it to the big leagues without playing the field. Smith and Baek have taken steps backward and could be with other organizations next year, while Moorhead, who is still somewhat interesting, is 25 and hasn’t yet cracked Double-A, so he got squeezed by the new pickups.
Among those who have seen their stock go up are Yuniesky Betancourt, who got to Seattle faster than anyone expected, and Doyle, who finally gets a shot at to play regularly at the big league level. Adam Jones also continues to impress in Double-A and has moved himself to the top of the Jones/Tui/Cabrera trio that had been lumped together on the FF for the past few months. Jones, while still almost certainly moving to CF next year, has established himself as a very nice prospect, one of the better young players in the game.
Shin-Soo Choo leads those on the way down, as his total inability to hit lefties and his lack of power have ticketed him for a return trip to Tacoma next year. He’s not adjusting well to better pitching, and right now, if he ends up as a solid fourth outfielder in the majors, it will be a pleasant surprise. Wladimir Balentien and Yung-Chi Chen have also seen their stock slip a bit.
There are a few guys in the system who I still think could be nice pieces for the team down the line, even if not as everyday players, who aren’t getting a ton of press. Sabastian Boucher, Oswaldo Navarro, and T.J. Bohn head up my list of guys who are flying a bit under the radar (though, to be fair, Boucher is hitting the crap out of the ball, and is getting some love from within the system).
As always, use this thread as a catch-all for any minor league questions you may have. I’ll try to answer as many as humanly possible. If I miss something, feel free to email it to us.
Comments
Do you see the M’s making a trade to clear out some of their MI depth, or are they more likely to move people like Tui and Jones to different positions? Along these lines, with the M’s need for a front line starter (or three) and the relatively weak free agent class, could some M’s prospects be traded for pitching help this offseason?
Dave, I have been following Santin, Boucher, and Bohn, and their hitting has remained fairly consistent. A couple questions: (1) Have they given up on Santin as a catcher altogether? (2) How does the organization project Boucher power-wise, and what is his defensive profile? (3) Does Bohn project at least as a platoon OF in the bigs after a season in AAA ball? I’m a little surprised they haven’t promoted him to Tacoma. Thanks.
I could see Morse being dealt this offseason, for sure. Lopez could go as well if they made a big move for a frontline arm. However, the MI depth will sort itself out. Jones is going to end up as a CF, Tui will end up in RF (probably after a transition to 3rd, which I don’t think he’ll succeed at), and Cabrera could shift to 2nd if Betancourt installs himself at shortstop like the club expects.
Santin caught one game at Everett and the coaching staff said “we’re not doing that again.”
Boucher is a Willy Taveras/Tom Goodwin type, a guy who has the range to play all three spots and good wheels who is only valuable if he’s hitting for a high average. He’s not going to hit for a ton of power at the major league level, but as a defensive sub/pinch-runner, the team could do worse.
I think Bohn could have a Dustan Mohr type career, yes. I doubt he ever gets a shot to play regularly (and he probably isn’t good enough to start for most teams), but there’s enough juice in his bat that he could be effective as a role player, and he’s a solid defender. The M’s have left most of the guys at San Antonio because they’re making a run for the Texas League title.
So who is the shortstop in three years, Cabrera or Betancourt?
Any update on Bucky? Also (just out of curiosity), is he making the major league minimum because he’s on the 40-man roster, or… how does that work?
Thanks
Betancourt, probably.
Bucky’s rehabbing in Inland Empire right now. He’ll probably join the club in September. Like every other minor leaguer on the 40-man, he’s working on a split-contract that pays him the league minimum when he’s in Seattle and significantly less when he’s in the minors.
I noticed that you’ve rated three players 3-4 on the risk scale (all position players) and everybody else from 6-10. Is that typical of the top prospects in all farm systems, or do the Mariners just have a talent pool that is particularly prone to attrition? Also, what is the verb form of attrition? Attrite?
How much of a concern is the lack of power in next year’s projected outfield? In other words, if Ichiro goes back to being Ichiro! and Doyle can manage 15 or so bombs, is the outfield going to be productive enough offensively (along with their above average defense)?
#6 – As long as Bucky’s on the major league DL he earns a major league salary. If gets activated and optioned to Tacoma, then he makes a minor league salary.
The problem I see with converting Tui and Jones to outfielders is that Seattle relies on the outfield for all its left-handed hitting. I know that its a ways down the road, but its hard to envision any of the left-handed slack being picked up by the infield. Tui might make a good successor to Sexson.
By the time Cabrera gets here we should know if Betancourt of Lopez aren’t going to cut it.
And how is this club stacking up against other clubs? My perception is that this is a somewhat thin farm system, which is an improvement over an impoverished one. That barreness, in my opinion, is a major reason for the club’s problems.
Dave, I’ve often been curious about how various organizations, but specifically the M’s rate their player development staff and what sort of feedback systems they use to improve how they instruct players. This is sort of an open-ended question, but I think I’m really looking for an answer to this question: Do the M’s actually look at the type of methodology that players learn and develop from, and secondly, do they look at the coaching staff and have some sort of feedback loop by which they can evaluate how the various coaching staffs apply that methodology? I mean, obviously, some players just won’t be successful, and every major league team has to have some sort of organizational development philosophy, but we never hear much about it. Thanks!
I noticed that you’ve rated three players 3-4 on the risk scale (all position players) and everybody else from 6-10. Is that typical of the top prospects in all farm systems, or do the Mariners just have a talent pool that is particularly prone to attrition?
The M’s are, by design, a high risk, high reward ballclub. They prefer to shoot for stars in lieu of acquiring players who are more likely to make the show but lack similar upside.
How much of a concern is the lack of power in next year’s projected outfield?
I could care less how many home runs the “outfield” hits. I think the lack of power on the team, as a whole, next year, is going to be an issue. But Snelling, Reed, and Ichiro can all be valuable offensive contributors while smacking less than 20 home runs.
And how is this club stacking up against other clubs? My perception is that this is a somewhat thin farm system, which is an improvement over an impoverished one. That barreness, in my opinion, is a major reason for the club’s problems.
The system is getting better. Bavasi and Fontaine have done a nice job rebuilding the ashes of what Gillick left them. It’s probably average, maybe slightly above average.
Thanks again Dave. As things stand today, who from the list do you see as the most probable casualties of the impending 40-man roster squeeze (Strong, Leone, Atchison, Bucky, any of the 3rd year San Antonio guys, etc.)? If it was your call instead, who would leave off first (other than obvious picks Thornton, Dobbs, Baek, and Rowland-Smith)?
Thanks for all the info. Besides the King, are there any starting pitchers in the system who are likely to have an impact next season? Livingston or Bazardo, maybe?
Dave –
I’m curious about your take on this year’s draft class, particularly Prettyman, Kahn and Thomas. What are your thoughts on these guys (I don’t think they made your list) and the draft in general?
Thanks.
Dave:
I’m curious why you rank Snelling’s Reward on a par with guys like Reed & Betancort, and behind guys like Lopez & Jones.
He has much better discipline than any of them but Reed, and while he probably doesn’t project as much HR power as Jones it’s probably on a par with Lopez, and surely better than Betancort or Reed. I see him as a 20 or so HR guy in the future, probably with 30 or more 2Bs, too.
He hits the ball hard. He controls the strike zone and draws walks. He plays decent defense. All-in-all, it seems his upside is rather like a DH that Seattle used to have. Maybe he won’t ever get there, but isn’t that a part of the Risk factor?
In short, what is it you see that I’m missing?
Any idea when we’ll get a chance to see Livingston in the big leagues?
Also, I notice Jose Lopez is still ranked as a potential 8 talent. How long do you think the big league club will give him to try and achieve that talent in the big leagues? Half of ‘06 at second base? Less? What with the glut of middle infielders, it seems someone like Lopez may get shipped off before he blooms, and then our organization would look like a bunch of boobs for rushing these youngsters. In terms of “throwing the MI’s against the wall and seeing who sticks,” what are the possible advantages and disadvantages for the M’s?
By the way, Dave, I live in Winston-Salem, too. I work part-time at the Wynnsong if you ever wanna stop by for a free movie — only payment I can offer for you fine services here at USSM.
Clicking on the various linked players and staring at their 2005 stats reinforces how difficult this game is and how difficult it is to make the show. A guy like Wladimir Balentein can get off to a scorching hot April and May, cool down, and then what next? Mostly hard work, I presume. I know Adam Jones is developing into a nice hitter, but it looks like he has a ways to go. Some Major League hitters have Jones’ SO rate, but they make up for it in other stats. It is nice to track these guys and the Future Forty is always a nice place to start.
Meant to say your fine services, lol. If you’re ever interested in free movies, just email me and drop me a line, bro.
Do the M’s actually look at the type of methodology that players learn and develop from, and secondly, do they look at the coaching staff and have some sort of feedback loop by which they can evaluate how the various coaching staffs apply that methodology?
Yes. I’m sure you were hoping for a longer answer, but I’m not sure what else to say besides yes.
As things stand today, who from the list do you see as the most probable casualties of the impending 40-man roster squeeze (Strong, Leone, Atchison, Bucky, any of the 3rd year San Antonio guys, etc.)? If it was your call instead, who would leave off first (other than obvious picks Thornton, Dobbs, Baek, and Rowland-Smith)?
I think Livingston could go unprotected. He just doesn’t throw hard enough to get the scouty teams excited and his strikeout rates aren’t good enough to get the statheady teams excited. Strong and Leone are definitely DFA candidates to clear a 40-man spot after the season. Blackley’s a DFA possibility too, considering the labrum surgery and his soft-tossingness. Miguel Ojeda probably gets put through waivers, and if someone claims him, they let him go. The 40-man stuff probably deserves a post of its own, eventually.
Thanks for all the info. Besides the King, are there any starting pitchers in the system who are likely to have an impact next season? Livingston or Bazardo, maybe?
An impact? Probably not. You could see Bazardo and Livingston in Seattle next year, but I doubt you’ll see either one helping the team win.
I’m curious about your take on this year’s draft class, particularly Prettyman, Kahn and Thomas. What are your thoughts on these guys (I don’t think they made your list) and the draft in general?
I didn’t see any of the three (Eastley didn’t play, either) on my trip to Everett, and I still haven’t gotten enough reports on the Aquasox players to include most of them in the FF yet. Basically, I’m taking an incomplete on the draft for now, until I can get more information.
Dave, How well does Travis Blackley project to come back? He was looking like a future stud in AA and AAA before getting hurt in the majors. Is he part of the M’s plans for the future, and how does he compare to Livingston? Thanks.
I’m curious why you rank Snelling’s Reward on a par with guys like Reed & Betancort, and behind guys like Lopez & Jones.
Position scarcity. Obviously, we’re all big Snelling fans. I’ve been talking him up since he was in Everett. But, to be a star as a left fielder, you have to be one of the premier hitters in baseball. Snelling, as nice a hitter as he is, isn’t a Manny Ramirez in the making. If he hits .300/.400/.500, like he could in his prime, that’s a pretty nifty player, but its a fringe all-star, an above average contributor but certainly not the best LF in the game. It’s Rusty Greer, basically. Betancourt, Lopez, Reed, and Jones all play significantly more important defensive positions. That’s a pretty big factor.
Any idea when we’ll get a chance to see Livingston in the big leagues?
Probably late next year or early in ‘07. If he stays healthy, of course.
Also, I notice Jose Lopez is still ranked as a potential 8 talent. How long do you think the big league club will give him to try and achieve that talent in the big leagues?
If he’s not traded this offseason, I’d expect him to get most of 2006 to audition for the 2B job. He has enough fans in the organization that they won’t dump him over a few hundred bad at-bats.
Any concerns about Clement’s rocky Wisconsin start?
Dave, How well does Travis Blackley project to come back? He was looking like a future stud in AA and AAA before getting hurt in the majors. Is he part of the M’s plans for the future, and how does he compare to Livingston?
He was? Before the surgery, he was throwing 85-88 with a nice change and a solid curve, but he had command issues and was getting hit around in the PCL. Labrum surgery is nasty, and few pitchers recover from it and be successful. He’s a longshot at this point.
Any concerns about Clement’s rocky Wisconsin start?
Its 23 at-bats.
Dave, when judging players’ defensive abilities is it safe to assume that outstanding defensive play will nearly always translate from the minors to the majors. I am referencing Betancourt. It seems as though that even if he hits a Pokey Reese like line in the majors, there is not a dissenting voice in regards to his defensive abilities, which have sparkled at every stop, and are just as valuable with the M’s as they were with SA and Tac. I can seen how certain successfull minor league hitter, aka Balentien, would have a hard time adjusting in MLB, but I do not feel the same is true for players whose primary strength is defense. Your thoughts?
I think clement will hit .But the catching is bad at best he is a million miles away im sure as we speak right now roger hansen is in wisconsin trying to teach him how to move his feet and recieve the ball,Does defense not count any more in the draft?
Do any of you know if there are any efforts to improve on pitcher mechanics to avoid injury? There must be some effort to identify the reason for the numerous pitcher injuries. Is there a concerted effort to characterize and eliminate bad mechanics or to identify what bad mechanics are?
Essentially, what is going on behind the scenes to reduce pitcher injuries?
Dave, when judging players’ defensive abilities is it safe to assume that outstanding defensive play will nearly always translate from the minors to the majors?
No. Players grow at different rates, and some players who were lean, quick, and agile defenders in their teens grew into immovable lugs as they aged. For the most part, young players are better defensively than old players, and decline should be expected in defensive performance earlier than in offensive performance. For a guy like Oswaldo Navarro, whose glove is way ahead of his bat, there is legitimate concern that by the time he’s ready to hit in the majors, he’ll have lost something defensively.
I can seen how certain successfull minor league hitter, aka Balentien, would have a hard time adjusting in MLB, but I do not feel the same is true for players whose primary strength is defense. Your thoughts?
I’d argue that Balentien is a successful minor league hitter. He’s a grip-it-and-rip-it slugger. I’m not very impressed.
Overall, I think your point is probably mostly true, but you may be overstating it a bit. Defense comes earlier for players than offense, so yes, there’s less projection involved with elite defensive players, but we also have less accurate tools to evaluate defensive abilities, so there’s a trade-off there.
Dave, any chance we ever see Nageotte or Soriano start again?
Nageotte, no. Soriano, maybe, but its unlikely.
Do you think the M’s have a philosophy of drafting mostly pitchers, or did it just wind up that a lot of our minor league talent turned out to be pitchers?
I think pitchers are risky. They get hurt, or tease you for years (ala Mike Moore or Gil Meche). Am I off base here? I’d rather see more sluggers getting drafted.
im curious about wladimir balentien. he seems to be the only hitter in the Ms farm system with genuine power. i know his strikeout rates are through the roof, but is there any hope that he at least “blossoms” into some sort of jerremy bunitz/mickey tetleton type hitter?
Do you think the M’s have a philosophy of drafting mostly pitchers, or did it just wind up that a lot of our minor league talent turned out to be pitchers?
The M’s drafted a ton of pitchers, most of them absolutely terrible, when Frank Mattox was the scouting director. Bob Fontaine’s philosophy is to get as much talent as possible, so you’ll see him mostly draft players regardless of position, though this year they tried to restock the lower level with good arms to replace all the crap that Mattox handed us.
I think pitchers are risky. They get hurt, or tease you for years (ala Mike Moore or Gil Meche). Am I off base here? I’d rather see more sluggers getting drafted.
You still have to field a pitching staff, you know.
im curious about wladimir balentien. he seems to be the only hitter in the Ms farm system with genuine power. i know his strikeout rates are through the roof, but is there any hope that he at least “blossoms†into some sort of jerremy bunitz/mickey tetleton type hitter?
His swing is lame, and his approach is terrible. It’s not beyond the realm of possibility that he improves (and thats why he’s still on the FF), but I don’t expect him to.
How do you think that layoff (because of the inability to get a US visa) affected Boucher – did the club advise him on conditioning or anything?
Dave,
What is your take on Soriano’s shoulder pain? Is this something to be overly concerned about?
Also, you weren’t terribly high on Jones when he was first drafted. Has he changed his approach, or is he one of those hitters that just manages to hit, despite looking bad?
Several of the pitchers drafted this year have gotten off to good starts, including Thomas, Rohrbaugh, Asher, and Gilmore. It should be interesting to see how these guys do as they move up in the system.
How do you think that layoff (because of the inability to get a US visa) affected Boucher – did the club advise him on conditioning or anything?
I’m sure the club was in contact with him.
What is your take on Soriano’s shoulder pain? Is this something to be overly concerned about?
I’m a little worried, yea. They initially thought it was no big deal, but it’s not going away, and now he’s going to try to pitch through it. Can’t say I’m thrilled about that.
Also, you weren’t terribly high on Jones when he was first drafted. Has he changed his approach, or is he one of those hitters that just manages to hit, despite looking bad?
His swing isn’t picturesque, but he’s improved quite a bit, and he’s improved his approach as well. I was just wrong on Jones.
Third question: What is your take on all the patient hitters we are seeing at Everett? Be specific if you can.
Dave,
Blackley posted a 3.83 ERA in the PCL. Granted Cheney is a HUGE park, most of the league is very hitter friendly. IIRC, he had a few starts in AAA after his shoulder problems that inflated his ERA to the 3.83 level. I don’t really see how he was being hit around in AAA. He was having a damn good season. At 21 years old even.
So the article on one of Today’s rags that said Soriano is getting ready to pitch, is more about him just dealing with the pain and not because he’s pain free?
That’s not good. I would assume that the M’s have done all the testing known to man on his shoulder, but still, I’d like the pain to be gone.
Riffing on 13, is there any way we can realisically address the problems we have with power in the lineup through the minors in ‘06, or is this something we’d have to fix through the FA market or trades?
Blackley posted a 3.83 ERA in the PCL. Granted Cheney is a HUGE park, most of the league is very hitter friendly. IIRC, he had a few starts in AAA after his shoulder problems that inflated his ERA to the 3.83 level. I don’t really see how he was being hit around in AAA. He was having a damn good season. At 21 years old even.
His home/road splits were HUGE and his ratios (47 walks, 80 strikeouts, 14 homers in 110 innings) were poor. He didn’t pitch very well last year, even before the injury.
Third question: What is your take on all the patient hitters we are seeing at Everett? Be specific if you can.
The club is emphasizing plate discipline. Finally.
Riffing on 13, is there any way we can realisically address the problems we have with power in the lineup through the minors in ‘06, or is this something we’d have to fix through the FA market or trades?
Clement and Lopez could be a big boost at non-power positions. The rest of the power spike will have to come from outside the organization, most likely.
Just as a small FYI…Daniel Santin catches about twice a week. He’s Caught the last 2 games and six of the last twelve. To date, he has made no errors. I know with Catchers errors are certainly not the best indicator, but he’s the youngest of teh four catchers on the roster…he turns 20 in November. That being said, he bats left, throws right & is hitting .313 (leading the club) in 131 AB’s. He is yet to hit for much power (just 3 HR), but he does have 8 doubles and 23 RBI.
Yea, I know he’s still catching on an irregular basis, but the question pertained to on if the club has given up on him as a future catcher, and the answer to that is yes.
If that is a change in organizational philosophy, are we seeing a bottom up approach to that where they will pound it into the kids at Everett and hope they take those mad walking skills with them up the ladder? Are they pressing this issue in the other levels as much and just don’t have the same talent there?
Dave: I was just referring to your post (#4) where you said…
“Santin caught one game at Everett and the coaching staff said “we’re not doing that again.—
That’s not really fair. I’ve also seen Santin working before and after games on his catching with the coach…so I wouldn’t exactly say the organization has given up on him. Perhaps they don’t peg him at catcher now, but “given up on” is a pretty bold/harsh statement to make.
Actually Blackley was hitting 92 after some mechanics changes by Rafael Chaves. I wonder if that contributed to his injury. Labrum recovery has not been nearly as consistent as say TJ surgery.
If Soriano is actually pitching with any sort of discomfort it’s a total joke.
How many arm injuries do they have to witness to learn?
Just shut him down and have him do tubing and hope for the best. Throwing 90 mph when your arm hurt just doesn’t seem to be working well….maybe it’s time to go the rest and pre-rehab route.
I think I, along with everyone else would love to see what the Mariners pitchers are advised to do when it comes to conditioning…It’s hard to believe it could be that much worse than other Major League teams…but I’m starting to have my doubts.
I was a huge Jeremy Reed fan before the season, but I am worried that he is really a 4th outfielder. Any chance that Ichiro moves to center so that the M’s are not forced to use a recent Reed/Bloomquist solution in center which may or may not hit.
If Adam Jones moves to center, is Cameron a decent comparison (some power, lots of K’s) with less speed.
I am surprised that the Marlins gave up Bazardo. Has anyone seen him pitch? Supposedly McKeon did not like what he saw in one major league game (silly, since it was a 20 year old debuting in a blowout game where the other team was hitting everything).
Any chance we re-convert Jones back into a pitcher, and trade him to the NL (where he can get in some ABs) for a proven starter?
From what I hear and read, Jones’ defense is pretty bad at short, so Cameron may be a bit of a stretch defensively in CF. Cameron’s bat, Ibanez’ glove?
Reed will be fine. In fact, his patient approach typically lends itself well into increased power as his body matures and he increases his strength. He’ll post some good numbers in a year or two.
Adam Jones development is very nice. Dave’s giving himself too much grief on overlooking Jones, but he was a very raw, toolsy infielder when they got him. He was a SS with a 95 mph fastball, tough to project. The coaches have done a good job with him, it appears.
(my /sarcasm tag got eaten after the first line)
Haven’t seen much mention of Bucky lately on USSM and was completely surprised to see him batting at the 66ers game yesterday. Got there just in time to see him clobber a first pitch double off of the center field scoreboard 400+ feet away. However, he runs a bit like Edgar did for most of last year. Disconcerting to say the least.
Dave,
Fabulous job, as always. My question is a little different — how good are the Mariners at evaluating talent, particularly pitching talent. It seems that in prospect pitching deals, RJ trades excepted, the M’s tend to get prospects that don’t pan out, and have given up pitchers (I’m thinking Ortiz, Fuentes, Hampton, Marte, etc. — you could add others) that seem to have had a lot more upside than the organization saw. How do you see it?
I guess I don’t see why the big panic over Reed. He’s a young rookie. I think for a kid that has some wrinkles to iron out, He’s doing decent job at the ML level. He’s young, cheap, and talented. A little patience on our part will pay off.
Dave made a very good statement about disappointing pitchers in A ball at the previous update. Since the last update, has anyone made strides to separate themselves from the herd?
I agree there will be some 40 man roster casualties from this list. I would guess Baek, Leone and Strong and possibly Blackley.
I am surprised that the Marlins gave up Bazardo. Has anyone seen him pitch?
I’ve seen Bazardo pitch a bunch. He reminds me of Armando Benitez, actually. His curve has potential and his change is surprisingly good, so I think he’s got a chance to stick as a starter, but his fastball is pretty straight and he doesn’t miss a lot of bats. He’s intriguing, but I’m not sure what he’s going to be yet.
Fabulous job, as always. My question is a little different — how good are the Mariners at evaluating talent, particularly pitching talent. It seems that in prospect pitching deals, RJ trades excepted, the M’s tend to get prospects that don’t pan out, and have given up pitchers (I’m thinking Ortiz, Fuentes, Hampton, Marte, etc. — you could add others) that seem to have had a lot more upside than the organization saw. How do you see it?
I know we’re fans of the organization, so we see from 77-05 as one continuous team, but using the Woodward and even Gillick era front office evaluations to critique the current organizational abilities is pretty silly. That Woody Woodward traded away Derek Lowe has no bearing on Bill Bavasi’s ability to evaluate talent.
The M’s don’t have a crystal ball and I don’t agree with all of their pitching philosophies, but they generally know good pitching from bad pitching.
adam said: “I think I, along with everyone else would love to see what the Mariners pitchers are advised to do when it comes to conditioning…It’s hard to believe it could be that much worse than other Major League teams…but I’m starting to have my doubts.”
FWIW, John Manuel (from Baseball America) was just on KJR answering a similar question from Fain; he mentioned scouting a pitchers usage before even signing them, the A’s pre-conditioning program in the minors leagues (Rick Peterson’s idea) and the Braves pitchers throwing more than other teams (Mazzone’s idea) and opined that the M’s didn’t have all that more injuries than other teams, but had the misfortune of having frontline guys go down; he also mentioned that he thought most of the injuries either pre-dated Price’s influence on the system (Anderson, Meche) pre-dated the system (Campillo) or were probably due to other circumstances (Soriano converting from outfielder)
Oh, and yea, the piling on Jeremy Reed is getting a bit old. If you expected him to hit .330 as a rookie, that was your problem, not his. He’ll be fine, and he’ll be the .290/.360/.450 guy I’ve been projecting him to be all along.
#50:
That’s a considerable overstatement. TJ surgery probably has about a 75% to 85% full recovery rate. Labrum surgery is probably 90% or better rate where the guy never again pitches effectively. And of the guys who do pitch effectively, they are almost never as good as they were before surgery. There may have been one pitcher who had labrum surgery and returned to full effectiveness.
It’s best to assume that any pitcher who goes under the knife on a labrum injury is done. In contrast, it’s not unreasonable to assume that a guy who has TJ surgery is going to back again in one to two years.
#64 I think you mean understatement.
he also mentioned that he thought most of the injuries either pre-dated Price’s influence on the system
Well, to be fair, Price was the roving minor league instructor before he was the major league pitching coach…
In regards to the health of M’s pitchers, I am not as concerned with workloads and philosophies as I am with medical diagnosis and timely and appropriate action taken by the medical team. As an organization, I do not believe that the M’s are hurting their young arms more than other teams, but, and I reference Piniero and Campillo, they seem to be late in properly recognizing injuries.
Dave, I hope you’re right about Reed. Next year is going to be a very important year for him. He needs to climb at least halfways to your numbers (.810 OPS) from his current ones (.664) if he plans on remaining an everyday outfielder. And I don’t believe raising concerns about Reed is “piling on”.
Every team tends to do this. Most prospects don’t pan out. Given that a large percentage of major-leaguers at any given time are either performing at or below replacement, or are enjoying very brief stretches as adequate players, and adding those guys to all the guys in the minors, the chances of any prospect actually becoming an impact player is very small. What people mean when they say this is, “why haven’t we developed more guys like these here, in the top ten?” But the point is, there’s only ten guys in the top ten. There are thousands in the minors. The attrition rate is horrendous, for the best of organizations.
The names you mention were abandoned before the current management and scouting team were in place. Hampton and Ortiz left the organization a decade ago. You’re letting your standard slip around, too; Marte and Fuentes, for instance, aren’t THAT great. They’re decent relievers, who would not be solving our problem today if they were still here. Hampton’s been mostly mediocre, with a few bright spots.
And EVERY team (except apparently Oakland!) gives up on guys who find a niche elsewhere. You have to; nobody has a farm system big enough to accomodate every possible player. You have to choose. Often you choose wrong. Usually there’s not that much to choose from; almost all players are non-stars.
Balentien’s been a frustrating guy to watch because he has enough power to muscle the ball just about anywhere, but he prefers to take cuts that screw him into the ground. I was listening to a Sixers’ game a few days ago, and he had a broken bat fly ball to the warning track in right. Seriously. But I don’t know if they can really get him to start hitting the ball with any consistency… his strikeouts are worse this year than any previous, and the more polished pitchers at the higher levels are just going to make it worse on him.
eponymous coward said:”Well, to be fair, Price was the roving minor league instructor before he was the major league pitching coach…”
I couldn’t recall the timeline, so I looked it up:
1989-90 Arizona League
1991 class-A Peninsula
1992 Northwest League champion Bellingham.
1993 class-A Riverside
1994-95 Northwest League
1996-1997 double-A affiliate
1998-99 Mariners minor league pitching coordinator
not a lot of scope for influencing the franchise’s pitching policy there….
Just to take the opposite side on the Balentien issue, his strikeouts are very high, but his BA has not been terrible from year-to-year, indicating that his BABIP is also very high every year. (I know BABIP fluctuates wildly, but his has been pretty good for three years now.) So in theory, if his K rate plateaus he could carve out a career. Still a long shot, though.
Dave, Bavasi’s made a lot of comments to the effect that if the ‘05 Ms don’t start winning he is gone.
What’s driving this? I’m sure everyone at the Ms is anxious to improve, and from my time around guys like Lincoln I know they HATE issuing mea culpas, but is Bavasi’s seat really scorching hot?
From the cheap seat Bavasi seems like he has gotten good value in trades, and is draft picks have been reasonable. (But maybe “good” and “reasonable” is less than what Lincoln expects.)
Bavasi won’t be fired this offseason unless he beats up Lincoln’s grandkids and steals their toys or something. If the M’s suck again next year, he’s done, and he knows that.
The point is Price would have been working with Meche and Piniero in 1998-1999.
Not that I think BP is the root of all evil- I thought he was overrated when people asserted his geniushood in 2000-2001, and think he’s getting too much crap tossed his way now. He’s been pretty good at getting a decent bullpen in place, getting some contributions out of organizational soldiers like Franklin and Mateo. What’s not gone well on his watch is that the prize arms coming up through the organization, without exception, have gone sour- even Freddy had a year and a half stretch of craptasticness, and Price hasn’t been able to find a way to get them back on track outside of Freddy in 2004. When you contrast that with someone like Mazzone or Duncan, you can’t say it’s top-tier performance…but if BP isn’t the genius everyone thought he was in 2000-2003, he’s not the Satan everyone thinks he’s been in 2004-2005. Hell, even Dave Duncan’s had some flameouts- Todd Van Poppel and Rick Ankiel.
How does an organization like Texas got good hitting propects like Teixeira, Young and Blalock and the M’s got none? Did they just get lucky or their drafting philosophy is very different from that of the M’s?
Thanks.
I want to give some props to jc for post 28. Sure it had a few misspellings and punctuation errors but it seems that he put a little more effort into making it understandable than some past posts.
I hadn’t heard that he was having problems, and I wonder where jc heard this. Has anyone else heard that he’s having problems defensively?
7:
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#76, I believe the Rangers traded for Blalock as a prospect. They were lucky enough to retain their draftpick on Teixeira despite signing the free agent of all free agents that year… Alex Rodriguez. By finishing poorly in the standings the previous year they only had to yield a sandwich pick to the M’s instead of the one they used on Teixeira.
re: 80
Blalock was a 3rd round pick out of high school by the Rangers in ‘99.
I stand corrected on Blalock. I thought maybe they swapped prospects for Blalock, but their prospect trades from a few years ago didn’t involve him.
Re: Teixeira, Young, and the Rangers…..
T-Rex was drafted #5 in 2003 (the same year Mauer went #1 and Prior went #2, I think Dewon Brazelton went #3 to the Devil Rays and Gavin Floyd #4 to the Phillies)….
Michael Young was acquired via trade with Toronto with Darwin Cubillan for Esteban Loaiza. Pretty good trade.
Does anyone know when Fuson became part of the Rangers staff? I remember that the A’s wanted Blalock in return for him back when he switched over. While he gets tons of respect for helping build up the Rangers program, I think the work Doug Melvin did for the Rangers (he drafted Blaclock and traded for Young, I think) and the work he’s currently doing for the Brewers is exceptionally underrated.
I think the difference between the Ms current crop of high level prospects and rookies and the Rangers is simply the fact that during the era when these guys were drafted Gillick was giving away the Ms draft picks every year to sign FAs
To reinforce Steve’s point (64), Gil Meche is basically the poster child for labrum surgery recovery. The Gil Meche we have now is about as good as Gil himself could have reasonably hoped for when he went in for labrum surgery.
Gil Meche is as good as that labrum outcome gets.
Whereas, John Smoltz and Eric Gagne are former TJ patients.
Billy Beane had some surprisingly nice things to say about Grady Fuson in a recent BP Chat. He basically gives full credit to Fuson for brining Bobby Crosby into the A’s org.
oops…. that’s the 2001, not 2003, draft. my bad.
In two words, Grady Fuson. He built the Oakland farm into a power, and did the same in Texas. Neither organization as been as strong since he left.
Does anyone know where he is now? Maybe he can stay out of the GMs chair until the M’s GM job is open again…
Just saw this on the wire about Kerry Wood and his labrum/rotator cuff.
“Cubs pitcher Kerry Wood is pitching despite a damaged rotator cuff. A team source told the Chicago Tribune, Wood is likely to be shut down by September if management believes the Cubs have little or no chance to overcome the sizable deficit they face. Wood would then have surgery to clean up debris in his rotator cuff and labrum and, the team hopes, be ready to go by the start of spring training.”
Kerry Wood’s abbreviated career is a real shame. The way the Cubs treated him was criminal. Sounds like the Ms plan on treating Felix very, very differently.
#85: Gil Meche is basically the poster child for labrum surgery recovery. The Gil Meche we have now is about as good as Gil himself could have reasonably hoped for when he went in for labrum surgery.
Gil Meche is as good as that labrum outcome gets.
It’s important to remember that Meche did not have torn labrum – he had a frayed labrum. So citing Meche as an example of recovery from a labrum also requires a balancing awareness that Meche’s injury was not as severe as many labrum injuries.
Dave, one more question. Do you know if the Ms have brought in any outside consultants to investigate how they are training their pitchers?
Are they taking extraordinary steps to evaluate why so many of their pitchers are going down, or are they just assuming it’s bad luck?
Also, sound like no one at USS Mariner is writing for BP anymore. Will you publish the findings of your research on which clubs have had the most pitching injuries, or will you publish it here for free?
On the pitcher injuries: I’ll publish results somewhere free, be it here or elsewhere.
#88:
Special Assistant to Kevin Towers in San Diego
89 – I hope you’re right about Felix. But on the other hand you have Eddie Guardado, who’s been pitching all year with a fully torn rotator cuff, yet the M’s will happily trot him out there in 2006, presumably to watch his arm completely detach from his body.
Thanks for the insights Dave
#93: I pasted the wrong link. Try this one: Baseball America – Fuson Joins Padres Staff
Dave,
Jeff Flaig? Nice talent who seemed like a high-risk, high-reward pick because of his high school injury and good power. He’s hitting reasonably well this year. Do you see this guy cracking a future future forty?
Thanks for the terrific prospect analysis.
#94 — It is not like Guardado is a young prospect. If the M’s shelved him for surgery, he would not be ready to pitch until his contract runs out. And his arm problems cannot be blamed on the M’s. Thanks to the M’s penchant for being behind in the 9th inning, he has not been overworked this year or last. Yet I wished that they would have traded him due to the risk factor.
Great stuff, Dave. Thanks.
How does an organization like Texas got good hitting propects like Teixeira, Young and Blalock and the M’s got none? Did they just get lucky or their drafting philosophy is very different from that of the M’s?
At least part of it is building a ballpark condusive to hitting. Look at the road/home splits for Teixeira and Blalock:
OBP SLG AVG
Teixeira
Away: .301 .425 .244
Home: .384 .654 .311
Blalock
Away: .292 .356 .236
Home: .377 .598 .316
I was suprised that Michael Young actually hits on the road this year. Hard to argue that he isn’t a good player and not just a product of the park. Having lived in Dallas for a few years I can tell you that that park is pretty close to Coors field.
98 – good points, all agreed. I don’t blame the M’s for Eddie’s rotator cuff, but for their wishful thinking that he’s going to make it through the 2006 season as their full-time closer. Especially when they could’ve gotten value for him this year (I agree they should’ve traded him).
Dave, have you heard anything about Foppert? Is he injured or resting his arm? It has been over a week since the trade. I sure hope he is not damaged goods.
Wow, I had no idea Teixeira was such a mediocrity on the road. It’s been true for the previous three years too: 242 – 324 – 451 on the road. That’s just not very good for a first baseman.
And Blalock’s worse: 242 – 306 – 426.
Good work as always, Dave.
It seems to me that there are more Mariner prospects in the “higher” categories on the Future Forty than on the “lower” categories, and that a lot more of these guys are “rising” than “falling.” That smacks of system improvement. Good. I’m not expecting Bill Bavasi to change the state of the farm system overnight, and this looks like good progress. Especially considering the ruin that the Mariner farm system had been at the close of the Gillick era.
The word from the Feed was that Bavasi’s spending money to get the best long-term return for the team. If that costs him his job in ‘06 because the M’s won’t be in the best position to compete, then that’s a shame.
And one of these days some surgeon’s going to invent a treatment for labrum injuries and make a fortune. They did it with Tommy John surgery.
#100, #103.
Ah, yes. The myth of the Texas offense.
For another eye-opener, I suggest that you compare the road offensive stats (AVG/OBP/SLG) for the Mariners and the Rangers for the 2004 season. It’ll give you an idea of exactly how much extreme parks skew numbers.
Contrary to popular belief, offense did not carry the Rangers in 2004. It was their pitching, with considerable weight to the bullpen.
re 104
Yeah, I think it would be a shame if Bavasi lost his job next year. I just don’t see why folks are all blaming it all on Bavasi, when it was clear that there have been long term problems that came to a head that year. You simply don’t degenerate that quickly in one year–(because if you do, it’s because you don’t have quality minor leaguers that are ready to step up and give even minimal quality).
I just didn’t know Texas was that extreme. Whew.
#104:
Not likely to happen. The elbow is a simply hinge joint. The shoulder is a compound joint, essentially four joints combined into one. See this interview with Frank Jobe for some discussion on TJ and shoulder injuries by the guy who pioneered TJ.
(Incidentally, the interview of Jobe is by Jonah Keri, who will be with Derek tomorrow night.)
#61, #69 — I am aware that Bavasi did not trade Lowe and Veritek for Heathcliffe Slocumb, but I was not under the impression that the whole organization turns over when the GM spot changes. Guys like Price, as indicated in #71, have been in the organization for years, and presumably evaluating talent. Certainly, to a large extent, the GM relies on these evaluation in doing deals. I question those evaluations.
I’m not saying that Marte and Fuentes are as big time as others (although Fuentes was a lot better than what the M’s got in return, i.e., nada), but it’s still fair to question the talent evaluation prowess of the organization, particularly when it is so hard to identify hidden gems that the club picked up. Obviously, some players “get good” after they were traded (Ortiz), some stink up the joint after acquisition (make your own list). I don’t think the Mariners do particularly well here.
By the way, “mostly mediocre” Mike Hampton has won 136 games since he was traded (with Mike Felder) for Eric Anthony, who didn’t, er, meet with the same success.
By Ortiz, are you referencing David Ortiz, formerly Arias, or is there a pitcher I’m forgetting?
#110 Russ ortiz
I was actually thinking of David Ortiz, but I suppose it could apply to either.
#111 – Russ Ortiz never pitched in the Mariners’ system, AFIK. I believe he came up in the Giants’ system. I assumed the reference was to David Ortiz (then known as David Arias), though I was confused by his inclusion with a group or pitchers….
Re #113 — that was precisely the cause of my confusion. (That and the “get good” comment — Arias was good when we dealt him, even if he was still in A ball.)
And re #109 — there’s been a lot of organizational turnover in recent years; Benny Looper’s still around, sure, as are a number of our scouts (I know several of our best ones are still with us), but the guys at the top are mostly different.
Thanks for your work Dave. Like #97, I was wondering what you think of Flaig. I realize that if he remains a first baseman it will be a tough slog, but how does he project as a hitter, and do you think there’s hope of moving him to a more demanding defensive spot? Or is his arm shot?
My worry is not that Jeremy Reed, Doyle, Lopez, Betancourt, are each hitting poorly (some small sample sizes there though). My concern is that they are ALL hitting below expectations. Combine this with Beltre’s off year and Olivo’s disaster, makes me wonder if bad hitting is contagious. Right now I think we could acquire some top hitting prospect and he would probably hit .220 with no power for us. Maybe an exaggeration but we know what Reed and Lopez and others can do. I think Doyle could be a yearly .300 hitter with gap power but is he in this lineup?
#115 Strange to think Flaig was a SS before being drafted and now is a 1B. He does not look real big so I am not sure of power numbers.
David Arias Ortiz never played a game in A ball for us. Arizona Fall League (Rookie) only, in ‘94-’95. Hampton was gone in 1993. How many FO employees are still there from then?
#115 and #117: Jim Thome was also drafted as a SS.
Thome logged serious time at 3B, too. It’s not like they moved him straight from SS to 1B.
jason
#119 that would have been something to see
What is the M’s plan this year with Foppert? As far as I can tell he has not pitched since we got him. I know he pitched for AAA and in the majors earlier this year. Do you see him or Bazardo being in the mix for the rotation next year?
I spotted a bit of a typo on the latest update: George Sherrill’s birthday is listed incorrectly. The Mariners home page lists his birthday as 4/19/77.
David Arias Ortiz never played a game in A ball for us. Arizona Fall League (Rookie) only, in ‘94-’95.
He played the 1996 season at Wisconsin, which AFAIK was an M’s affiliate at the time (as it is now).
http://www.forecaster.ca/thestar/baseball/player.cgi?1937
jason
I don’t know why I mentioned Russ Ortiz. I meant Shawn Estes (traded for Salomon Torres). Admittedly, this happened long ago.
Dave, I’m curious about the fact that Lopez, Clement and Adam Jones are all 8/7s, yet you have Lopez as a potential star and the other two as potential regulars. That makes sense to me with Clement, given that he’s barely started his pro career, but why do you have Jones a notch below Lopez? Is it because he hasn’t been at AA that long, or what?
Jason,
According to The Baseball Cube, Wisconsin was a Twins affiliate in ‘96, but since Ortiz wasn’t traded until November 1996, you’re probably right.
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/david_ortiz.shtml
http://www.bb-ref.com/o/ortizda01.shtml
Make that September ‘96 on the Ortiz (Arias) trade.
While we’re on the topic of front-office blunders, remember when the Yankees offered Soriano for Paniagua?
Re #126 — Baseball Cube is wrong; Wisconsin was the M’s affiliate (as it had been, going back to when the team was called the Appleton Foxes), and the Twins were in Fort Wayne. I just double-checked this with my ‘97 BA Almanac to make sure.
Lots of catching up to do. Hopefully I catch it all.
Do you know if the Ms have brought in any outside consultants to investigate how they are training their pitchers?
Yes, they have. They can’t figure out why all their top arms keep going down either, so rather than speculate without factual evidence, they’re assuming (and hoping) its bad luck.
Jeff Flaig?
He’s in the 41-50 crop. There’s somethings to like in his bat, but no one really knows if he’s going to hit enough to justify playing as a 1B. Injuries are going to make his development rough, and he may have to be pushed through the system faster than he should be.
have you heard anything about Foppert?
He’s got a stiff neck. No big deal.
Guys like Price, as indicated in #71, have been in the organization for years, and presumably evaluating talent.
Bryan Price was a roving minor league pitch coach. Needless to say he wasn’t invited to discussions about who to trade and who to keep. If you want to assume that the trades the team made back in the 90s are relevant, I can’t stop you. But they aren’t.
My worry is not that Jeremy Reed, Doyle, Lopez, Betancourt, are each hitting poorly (some small sample sizes there though). My concern is that they are ALL hitting below expectations.
Have you thought that maybe the problem is your expectations and not the players performances? Seriously, if you think Betancourt and Doyle are “hitting poorly”, I’m not sure what the heck you were thinking we were going to get from the kids.
What is the M’s plan this year with Foppert?
This year? Just have him keep regaining arm strength. If he shows up at spring training next year and is throwing 95 and is lights outs, he’ll get a look, but odds are he starts ‘06 in Tacoma.
Do you see him or Bazardo being in the mix for the rotation next year?
No.
Dave, I’m curious about the fact that Lopez, Clement and Adam Jones are all 8/7s, yet you have Lopez as a potential star and the other two as potential regulars.
Call it a flaw of the numerical rankings. Lopez to me is a pretty clear cut above Clement and Jones, but I can’t make that obvious using the numbers and still have them mean what I want them to mean. Lopez is the closest to the majors and probably has the best chance of the three to be an all-star. Clement and Jones are good guys to have in the system, but they aren’t Jose Lopez, not just yet.
Yeah, the other two players Baseball Cube has for the ‘96 Wisconsin team are Ramon Vazquez and Luis Figueroa, both of whom have ‘96 Wisconsin as a Seattle affiliate.
Why do you think that Jose Lopez will develop when he has shown little ability to hit major league pitching? Did the Mariners really promote him THAT prematurely?
Jose Lopez won’t turn 22 until November. Also, he missed most of the first couple months this season due to injury so he didn’t get the necessary at bats before being called up again. So yes, he has been promoted prematurely.
Hey guys,
Just wanted to thank you for establishing this blog. For the few (relative to the 35k at tonight’s game) of us who come here, it’s a great source of info and community. I also know bandwidth isn’t free, so if you ever want to pass the hat count me in.
Thanks for getting back to me about my question re consultants. Too bad they couldn’t find a source of the problem. But if it is truly “luck”, then at least luck turns around.
So Dave,
I’m interested to hear you spreading some love to Boucher and Bohn. Boucher has impressed with the bat. Bohn is a guy who just seems to improve himself each year; not enormously, but across the board nonetheless. A little more pop; a little better eye; a bit more consistency. I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him have a successful supporting role in the Bigs. He’s ahead of Choo in my mind, which is sad to say for Shin-soo. I’d hope for a bounce back year for Choo next year, but the first few months in Tacoma will be decisive—if he’s still here, which I hope he isn’t but rather put in a package.
Re: the prospect breakdown in #3, that sure seems like the way the chips fall, yeah. Morse is _going_ to be traded, if not this offseason, than in ‘06: so why not now when his stock is still pretty good? I’d hate, hate to see Jose Lopez traded—but I’d understand it. Of all the guys with real, big league talent in the Ms organization, he seems like the one most likely to be moved. I don’t want that, as I say, but the team has other options, and good ones, for what he could do here. If he does go, it had better be for CERTAIN return of star talent which figures to frontline for the Big Club for the peak of the next talent cycle. Jones has CFer written all over him. I really like Asdrubal Cabrera, but Betancourt is here now, and Cabrera is two years away minimum, so.
No one is talking much about Betancourt as a hitter, but you know, he’s impressed me. “. . . Lines strike one off the wall.” He’s not a finished project to say the least, but it’s time to stop talking about him as a Pokey Reese type guy; Betancourt hits. Bavasi compared him to a 2nd round draft pick, and I remember someone picked up some chat from some opposing scouts whooping over that: I wonder where those two guys are working now, and whether they’re still laughing. Betancourt made the bigs in half a year, he’s blazing in the middle of the diamond, and even after a full year off he’s hitting pretty solid.
It’s really unfortunate for Justin Leone that he got hurt in minor league camp (or was it at the start of the season?), and missed the fist half of the year. I would far, far rather of had him doing Bloomquist’s job, but Leone is just boxed out. Sad, but that’s the way the bathead fragments.
I like many things that Bavasi/Fontaine have done in drafting bats and position players; assuredly they’re bringing talent in via the draft. Question, though: Have they drafted a _single_ pitcher in two years who projects to the major leagues? I don’t see it. Nottingham has injury, maturity, and stuff issues. I haven’t been blown away by anything I’ve heard of the arms at Everett this year, either. Now, Bazardo and Foppert go a long way to making up the deficit, but still the lack of pitching drafts which are even interesting let alone effective is a concern to me.
. . . But less of a concern than would otherwise be the case since I’m just extremely impressed with the Ms overseas scouting outfit. For all the grief that has been heaped on the FO of the Mariners here over the draft, including by me, it’s worth bearing in mind that the Ms made a clear decision in the Gillick days to deemphasize the draft in favor of international scouting and signs. And most of the REALLY SIGNIFICANT TALENT in this organization has resulted from that decision: Doyle, Lopez, Betancourt, Hernandez El Rey, Cabrera, put in Boucher and Campillo if you want. It is firmly entrenched in my mind, now, that the impact players which this organization produces are far more likely to come from overseas signings, and that the drafts just don’t tell the fat part of the tale. When Bavasi said, “No team in the game spends what we do on player development” or words reportedly to that effect at the Safeco schmooze, this, to me, is what he was saying: we don’t see directly where their big money is going, but they do have feet on the ground in many places, feet backed by $$$. This isn’t a knock on anyone here, BTW, just an observation.
Bill Bavasi will be back for another year, that seems pretty solid, too. He made some deadline deals, revealed a sketch if not a plan recently, and some of the deadweight is finaly being pruned from the roster. Sometimes, you’ve just have to be ruthless to be forward-thinking, and I think Bill B. has gotten with that part of the program at last. This season for the team has stunk, but [skipping a long post weighing pros and cons of what could have been done last offseason] I’m not sure that he could have radically improved the situation given the injury situations for so many players last year. He’s out of wiggle room now, though. More, significantly more, needs to be done this offseason, not as much with free agent signs, to me, as with further trades, use our surplusees and also-rans to fill needed deficits. Think big, here, Bill B.
Labrums: As I recall Arthur Lee Rhodes had a labrum. There _are_ guys who come back, but more typically as relievers than starters it seems to me.
Nageotte, Soriano, Blackley, Madritisch, Piniero: I’m hoping for one effective starter, and one effective reliever out of that group, with the probability being that the others wash out. I’d love for Soriano to be given a shot as a starter. Big Clint seems destined for relief, or at least that is the obvious route to get him on a big league roster for a year and see what’s what. He’s not too old to be reconverted to start if he shows some development, and a few guys do, but late inning power arm seems his ticket for now. . . . I think the team may yet harvest more results from that group then we see at the moment, since they’re all near bottom dollar at this point in time, but who makes it and who’s future has broken off I have no real notion.
A question about scouts: Do the Mariners feel they were sold a bill of goods on Michael Garciaparra? I have to figure they do; the scout that recommended drafting him was a friend. Is there some sort of “code of ethics” for scouts and the way they interact with players? Re: Garciaparra, did the Mariners have other scouts checking out the guy’s skills and injury situation? Or is this situation water under the bridge?
Also, I appreciate Dave’s insights, and am piqued by the occasional “I know something you don’t know and let’s leave it at that” comment. What are your credentials? Are you a writer? Do you work for a baseball organization?
Thanks again for the analysis… I appreciate the work you guys do and the time you invest. I read the site every day.
Good observations about the international signings. There was an article in the NYT Magazine about how the Mets are going hard after talent from Latin America, or at least trying to cultivate that image amongst the Latino community in NYC.
Others have made the observation that the Ms have a similar opportunity to cultivate talent from the Pacific Rim. This observation has the advantage of being true. But as you point out, they are definitely not forgetting Central and South America.
I’d love it if the Ms spent even more time promoting the fact that they have an international team: more “product” nights, more PR, maybe even having the broadcasters from the Spanish language side do some pre-game discussions with the English language guys. (There is a sizeable Spanish speaking population east of the Cascades.)
If the Ms are perceived as a place where international players are welcome, because they are such a place, that can only help us in recruiting free agents.
I have a silly question:
Why are Jamal Strong and Justin Leone even still on the Future Forty? Surely we have a couple of other “Reward 5″s in the mix somewhere?
Not that it matters, but it would seem that Dobbs belongs in the Strong/Leone grouping, and being a bit younger he might have more upside.
Except for the fact that Greg Dobbs is, you know, terrible.
Which of these players is “terrible” and which one is close to the majors and has a good chance to be an all-star?
AB BA/OBP/SLG HR BB/K
A 92 264/316/473 3 6/16
B 152 309/359/428 4 12/18
Player A is Greg Dobbs at Tacoma this year. Player B is Jose Lopez at Tacoma this year.
Which one of those players is 26, and which one is 21?
Hint: that little fact you conveniently didn’t mention significantly skews the projection.
I’m not saying Dobbs is a prospect of Lopez’ caliber. It just seems to me that “terrible” is a bit of an overstatement. His lack of success with the M’s isn’t a fair indication of anything given how little he played. He’s done pretty well in Tacoma with more regular use.
Actually I had them the wrong way round; A is Lopez, B is Dobbs.
Greg Dobbs, if he fulfill his potential, is Randall Simon. That’s the definition of a terrible prospect.
I’m not necessarily disagreeing with that, I’m just interested in knowing why you dislike Dobbs so much. Simon was a slow fat first baseman DH who never developed enough power to make up for his complete inability to walk. Dobbs doesn’t have any speed but he can at least play a couple of positions servicably well, can’t he?
Isn’t it at least possible that he could hit enough to become a servicable utility man/left handed pinch hitter? At least enough that they could flip him to somebody for a younger prospect?
No. Dobbs is bad defensively everywhere he plays. He can’t play third or left, so they stick him at first or DH or pinch hitter. And, in his prime, he might hit .290/.320/.380, which would make him something like the worst first baseman/DH/pinch hitter in baseball not named Scott Spiezio.
I’d be thrilled if the M’s just released Greg Dobbs. That way, they wouldn’t be tempted to give him any at-bats due to a single-happy batting average in Tacoma. He’s never going to help a major league team, and he’s never going to have any trade value. He’s a bad player who does the unimportant things just well enough to fool people into giving him playing time. That’s not a guy you want in your organization.
That’s not a guy you want in your organization.
Except maybe as a coach or something, which Dobbs might do really well at — he’s personable, seems reasonably bright, etc.
Hey Dave, what’s your opinion on Mike Wilson. I’ve noticed that he started to put up some pretty decent on-base and power numbers at Wisconsin, and I thought he might have cracked the 40 this time.
Wilson’s a linebacker. The Seahawks should try him out. He’s like 6′5, 270. He could probably pass for a defensive end.
He’s still got a ways to go as a baseball player.
He’s done pretty well in Tacoma with more regular use.
He hasn’t, really. That’s the problem. The numbers that Dave is using for Dobbs’ “prime” aren’t THAT far from what Willie B. is hitting right now (.278/.317/.349)- and the Ignitor is a serviceable infield and outfield backup, and has speed to boot that more than counters the extra power you’d get from Dobbs. My guess is Willie would probably be posting .290-.310 with a SLG in the low to mid 4’s in Tacoma, and a OPS around .750-800, like other similar players have at similar ages in AAA (Rich Amaral comes to mind- he didn’t get a job until 29). Someone like Dobbs isn’t useful unless they can play critical defensive positions.
That being said, I can see DMZ’s “organizational soldier” argument. The problem is getting scouts to look past the personal qualities, sweet swing and the singles to the rest of the package- but yeah, Greg Dobbs as the new Dave Brundage kind of makes sense.
Dave, in the future fourty, you seem to have Sherril’s year of birth wrong. According to the player page on yahoo sports, he was born in 1977, not 1982. Seems like a signifikant difference.
123-126-129: you’re right. Baseball Cube is wrong. Again. Their data entry is appalling; nearly every player has errors. Thanks for the Forecaster link.
Dave, if you want to see the reason the M’s pitchers hurt their arms, look at the following”
http://www.throwmax.com/www-throwmax-com/baseballvideo.chk
So why did Bob Stoddard hurt his arm?
Dave,
Aside from future 40 references, I’ve never heard you say much about Luis Valbuena. I don’t know much about him other than that he hit really well in the VSL last year. Is the fact that you list his reward a notch below Cabrera/Tui’s based on inferior tools, or is it because he doesn’t have as much of a track record in the states?
Valbuena’s a thick kid who isn’t very impressive defensively right now. He’s got some pop in his bat, but I don’t know where he’s going to play if his defense at second doesn’t get better. He’s going to have to work on his glove pretty hard. If he busts his tail and becomes an adequate defender, he could be a nice little prospect. If his glovework remains poor, though, he probably doesn’t make the majors.
Thanks a lot, Dave.
One more question: One thing that I’ve noticed from Jones and Cabrera both of them have suffered noticeable declines in their walk rates since moving up a level. Jones’ decline isn’t so steep, going from 1 BB/9.3 AB in the Cali League to 1/12 in San Antonio, but Cabrera’s plate discipline has all but disappeared: 1/6.4 ABs in Wisconsin, 1/17.3 ABs at Inland Empire.
Is plate discipline a skill that often declines sharply at more advanced levels? Does Cabrera’s decline indicate something wrong with his approach, or is it nothing to worry about?
Again, thanks for all your great work. Ms fans are spoiled to have USSM as a free resource.
Walk rates are actually one of the least consistent indicators of performance, especially at the lower levels. Bret Boone, for instance, was a minor league walk machine. Asdrubal Cabrera has never had great plate discipline. His walk rates at Wisconsin were more a factor of poor pitching than good hitting. That said, he’s still young enough where you wouldn’t expect him to have tremendous grasp of the strike zone, and its not a huge concern.