Sasaki’s last game
The Japan Times has an interesting write-up on Kazuhiro Sasaki’s last game in pro baseball, which also includes interesting details about the tradition of the “retirement game” in Japan — and how Kazu’s appearance flouted certain elements on that tradition. It’s a few weeks old, so apologies if you’ve seen it.
An odd end to an odd, if at times outstanding, run.
Way to milk it!
I love this suspended batboy story.
Quick recap, if you’re not aware: Dodgers pitcher Brad Penny, a former member of the Florida Marlins, dared a Marlins batboy to drink one gallon of milk in under an hour Sunday while the Dodgers were in Florida. Penny offered up $500 if the kid was able to do it without vomiting. He didn’t vomit, but didn’t finish the milk in time, either. The Marlins suspended him for six games, leading Penny to quip, “It’s kind of ridiculous that you get a 10-game suspension for steroids and a six-game suspension for milk.”
Now it appears he’ll be living his 15 minutes of fame: The Milk Processor Education Program is offering him the cash in exchange for his pimping milk, and a Minnesota Twins minor league affiliate wants him as honorary batboy Monday for a “Milk Night” promotion.
Billy Beane on the Peninsula Sept. 29-30
What does Billy Beane have in common with longtime White House correspondent Helen Thomas, co-founder of the Mountain Gorilla Project Amy Vedder, and Sergei Khrushchev, son of former Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev?
Right now — other than the obvious carbon-based form of life thing — not much.
But just wait until the end of September, when the Athletics’ GM will follow in the aforementioned luminaries’ footsteps as the “American Conversations” speaker at Peninsula College.
The events include:
* A Dinner and Conversation at the SunLand Clubhouse in Sequim on Thursday, September 29, at 6:00 p.m.. For ticket information, please contact the Foundation Office at 360-417-6535* A Community Conversation on Friday, September 30 at 7:30 p.m. in the Peninsula College Little Theater on the main campus in Port Angeles. Admission is $10 for adults and $5 for students.
* There will also be a special Studium Generale Campus Conversation at noon in the college’s Little Theater. There is no admission charge for this presentation.
Sounds like a terrific event, with up-close-and-personal access to Mr. Moneyball himself. Worth checking out if you’re in the vicinity.
Game 126, Mariners at Rangers
Today’s question is not “How much will Clint Nageotte sweat?” but “Can Jeff Harris repeat his solid previous performance?” as the minor league vet gets the start. He is opposed by Chris Benoit’s younger brother, Joaquin.
Your lineup:
1 Ichiro Suzuki, RF
2 Willie Bloomquist, 2B
3 Raul Ibanez, LF
4 Richie Sexson, 1B
5 Adrian Beltre, 3B
6 Greg Dobbs, DH
7 Yuniesky Betancourt, SS
8 Jeremy Reed, CF
9 Miguel Ojeda, C
Greg Dobbs again. I almost wish we’d kept Spiezio.
Projecting Felix In 2006
I’ve done a significant number of posts breaking down Felix Hernandez’s statistical performance through his first four starts. What I haven’t done, however, is project what I expect from King Felix going forward. Until now. I’ve been working on a pitcher-projection-system behind the scenes, and I’m finally to the point where I trust the data enough to publish it.
Now, keep in mind, pitchers are weird beasts. No projection system in the world would have forecasted Jamie Moyer’s late career development. Statistical projections are a tool that can be useful, but when combined with pitchers, we need to know that they are still a blunt tool, and especially with a kid who won’t turn 20 until next April, absolutely anything is within the realm of possibility. However, we can use past performance to give us a reasonable window of what to expect. That’s what I believe this projection for Felix provides; an array of reasonable performances for the King in 2006, any of which could occur.
As for the nuts and bolts of the system, I’m going to lean towards brevity. It’s nothing radically different than what others have done before me, I’m sure. Ron Shandler’s projections are based on most of the same assumptions, and I’m actually expecting his postseason projection for Felix to be similar to this one. So why create my own? Well, two basic reasons: I’m impatient and don’t like waiting for someone else to tell me what I want to know, and I don’t have to pay myself for this information. I’m not claiming this system is better than what Shandler or Prospectus or whoever else puts out there. I’m simply claiming as far as accuracy, it’s pretty darn close, and the fact that its available now for no cost makes it a winner in my book.
So, anyways, here’s the basic gist of the system. In any given plate appearance, there are five potential scenarios, one of which will occur each time: a walk/hit by pitch, a strikeout, a ground ball, a fly ball, and a line drive. Of these five outcomes, we know that a pitcher has significant control over the first four, and though the research is still new, it appears that pitchers can exert some control over the amount of line drives they allow as well, though it is less than their control over the other four scenarios. As most people who have read the blog for quite a while know, we believe the current evidence shows that, with some exceptions, most pitchers do not have a repeatable skill that allows them to control the outcome once a player makes contact with the ball. In other words, a pitcher can induce the opponent into hitting a groundball, but he can’t consistently compel the batter to hit a groundout.
So, what I decided to do was create a system that converts each batter faced into a percentage of likely outcomes, much like the last chart I used to break down Felix. We know Felix has significant control over his walk, strikeout, and groundball/flyball rates, so those are what we’re projecting, and the rest of the data populates itself when we put in the league average results based on hit types. Keep in mind, however, these numbers are context neutral, not dependant on the park he plays in or the teammates around him. Pitching in front of the M’s defense and in Safeco should only serve to make his raw numbers even more impressive.
Anyways, that’s a basic overview. For most people, what you really care about are the results, right? Well then, here you go.
Median Projection: The Middle Of the Road Safe Pick
213 innings pitched
128 singles allowed
38 doubles allowed
2 triples allowed
16 home runs allowed
54 walks
207 strikeouts
GB/FB rate: 2.20
Opponents BA: .244
Opponents OBP: .290
Opponents SLG: .324
Component ERA: 2.86
Fielding Independent ERA: 2.99
2005 Performance Comparison: A.J. Burnett
Optimists Projection: The Best We Should Plan For
244 innings pitched (and yes, I realize the team will never let him near that number)
143 singles allowed
42 doubles allowed
2 triples allowed
14 home runs allowed
40 walks
270 strikeouts
GB/FB rate: 3.00
Opponents BA: .237
Opponents OBP: .268
Opponents SLG: .303
Component ERA: 2.38
Fielding Independent ERA: 2.21 (!)
2005 Performance Comparison: No one was this good in 2005. Not even Clemens.
Pessimists Projection: What To Expect If He Struggles
178 innings pitched
116 singles allowed
35 doubles allowed
2 triples allowed
11 home runs allowed
80 walks
160 strikeouts
GB/FB Rate: 1.67
Opponents BA: .257
Opponents OBP: .331
Opponents SLG: .328
Component ERA: 3.39
Fielding Independent ERA: 3.56
2005 Performance Comparison: Carlos Zambrano
Based on Felix’s professional career to date, the pessimistic projection for him next year would make him something like the 5th or 6th best starting pitcher in the American League. The optimistic projection grades him out as better than what Clemens is doing in Houston this year (which, to me, is hard to believe), and would be one of the most remarkable pitching seasons we’ve seen in the history of the game.
I feel the best about the median projection, and that’s along the lines of what I’m expecting next year. And, realistically, if he puts up his median projection next year, he’s going to finish in the top 3 in Cy Young voting. People talk about the need to acquire a #1 starter in the offseason. I disagree. We have one.
Game 125, Mariners at Rangers
RHP Ryan Franklin vs. RHP Juan Dominguez, 5:05pm, FSN and KOMO.
RF Ichiro!
2B The Ignitor
LF Ibanez
1B Sexson
3B Beltre
CF Reed
SS Morse
“DH” Dobbs (dammit, this must continue)
C JoeJessica
Have at it, kids.
Worst news of the season
Hargrove is concerned about protecting Felix. His idea of what that entails, though… from the PI:
“At this point, we’re probably looking at a 170 (cumulative) innings,” Hargrove said. “We’re still going to watch his pitch count; we won’t want him to go over 120, 125 pitches. But no matter what, he’s not going to reach the (maximum) innings.”
120, 125 pitches an outing for a 19-year old running up on his inning limit is crazy. If he hits 120 at any point this season Hargrove should be fired for negligence before pitch 121.
Game 124, Mariners at Rangers
LHP Jamie Moyer vs. RHP Chris Young, 5:05pm, FSN and KOMO.
Also known as, “Killing time until King Felix starts again.” It’s funny because it’s true.
RF Ichiro!
2B The Ignitor
LF Ibanez
1B Sexson
3B Beltre
CF Reed
“DH” Dobbs (it worked last time)
SS Betancourt
C Joe Jessica
Wee Willie still doesn’t get his much-needed day off. One of these days the poor kid is going to collapse under the pressure of carrying the team on his back these last six weeks. He’s hitting “right around .333” during this stretch, eh Ron?
Caple on Steroids
No, Jim Caple isn’t on steroids. At least, not as far as I know, although he was swinging those heavy replica bats with authority at the feed.
He does, though, have some insights on the issue that you might like to read.
Protecting the King, among other things
MLB.com ran this article about how the Mariners are trying to make sure their 19-year old phenom doesn’t self-destruct.
The price of celebrity can be high. Learning how to handle it can be difficult.
Former Mariners right-hander Freddy Garcia understands.
“When you are young, you might want to go out and have a lot of fun,” he said. “Sometimes that gets you in trouble, but you have to do what you have to do. I have talked to him a couple of times, and he knows he has to work hard.”
It might not be as easy to stray in Seattle as it is in New York, but trouble has few boundaries.
“When you go out, you can get in trouble,” Garcia said. “Sometimes, people see you out and they start to go after you. You have to be careful with that.”
Freddy, remember, is Felix’s hero and pal.
Also:
His clubhouse and in-game demeanor are controlled at all times. A good rookie is a quiet rookie, someone who does more listening than talking.
I was a little put off by that.
Also: a strange Seattle Times piece “Thornton making his pitch to stay” which is weird (“Thornton’s bad. And he’s on the roster for no good reason. And he’s doing badly. But there are good signs.”) and also reminds me that Thornton’s 29. I mean, wow.
Meanwhile, at the PI, John Hickey notes in the Mariners notebook:
Thanks to the largesse of the Texas Rangers, the Mariners have a fair-to-middling chance of vacating the AL West cellar that has been Seattle’s home for most of the past two seasons.
Hee hee hee. Also Hickey offers a view of Beltre’s ascent as a clubhouse leader.
“There are a lot of young guys here I can talk to and maybe help out,” he said. “I’m not saying I’m a leader, but if I can help, I will. I’m feeling a lot more comfortable about that now than I was when I first got here.”
Beltre is 26.