Game Thread, Rainiers vs Rivercats
The Tacoma Rainiers host Sacramento in Game 1 of the PCL Pacific Conference Championship tonight, starting at 7:05. You can go here to listen live. They play game two tomorrow and its dollar day, so if you’ve got a hankering for some playoff baseball, head down to Cheney and check it out.
I’m putting up a game thread for anyone who is planning on listening on the ‘net. Go Rainiers.
Game 138: Mariners at Athletics
Steroid user Ryan Franklin v Rich Haren. Not in the lineup: LF/steroid user Mike Morse. There’s a separate thread for Morse’s suspension and related discussion.
Taking Morse’s place in left field, Ibanez! Taking Ibanez’s place at DH, “DH” Dobbs.
Suggested Excuses For Future Failed Steroids Tests
Michael Morse’s suspension is the third time a Mariner has been suspended for violating the new policy. It’s gotten so bad that the Sacramento Bee is asking whether steroids have replaced caffeine as Seattle’s drug of choice.
Well, at least they both beat heroin.
As Derek pointed out, though, at least Morse’s explanation was original instead of that old fallback, the “tainted supplement,” and was forthright instead of a Palmeiroesque “Winstrol? How did that get there?”
Let’s face it: between the majors and the minors, this team is probably going to need more and better excuses for getting caught.
We at USS Mariner Labs are nothing if not eager to help. Ask anyone, and they’ll tell you that Derek and I are two of the most helpful guys around, deserving honorary merit badges in that arena if only we’d join the Boy Scouts.
Hence, Derek and I collaborated on a handy cheatsheet (no pun intended). These are 15 potential excuses that the next 15 busted Mariners should run up the media flagpole.
The reader should note, however, that neither Derek nor I are in the running for “good taste” merit badges any time soon. So if you’re easily shocked or wish to take this list for anything but mirth … maybe you should go read something else.
Stick around for tomorrow’s post: “Part Two: Okay, I Actually Did Do Steroids, But Here’s Why I Needed To.” Read more
Morse suspended
I’m trying to figure out the right adjective for this press release. Terse? Succint? Spare?
I’d give you the upshot, but the whole release is the upshot:
The Office of the Commissioner of Baseball today announced that Michael Morse of the Seattle Mariners has been suspended 10 days, effective today, for violation of Major League Baseball’s Joint Drug Prevention and Treatment Program.
Bummer.
Game 138: Mariners at Athletics
RHP Joel Pineiro vs. LHP Joe Kennedy, 7:05pm, FSN & KOMO
The game thread is up early, so you can get your comment on(*)!
RF Ichiro
CF Strong
DH Ibanez
1B Sexson
3B Beltre
2B Lopez
LF Morse
SS Betancourt
C Ojeda
* This should in no way be taken as an endorsement or suggestion that you “get your comment on,” either on the USS Mariner or in the privacy of your own home. Commenting may cause severe side effects, similar to sugar pill. Please consult your doctor before “getting your comment on.”
Love for the Rainiers
There will be playoff baseball in the Puget Sound. The Tacoma Rainiers are headed to the PCL playoffs (without Felix, unfortunately for them). Dates, from the site:
Pacific Conference Championship:
Wednesday, September 7 (7:05 p.m.)
Thursday, September 8 (7:05 p.m.) – Dollar Deal Day with $1 hot dogs, sodas, ice cream and beer.Pacific Coast League Championship:
Friday, September 16 (7:05 p.m.)
Saturday, September 17 (7:05 p.m.)
Sunday, September 18 (1:35 p.m.)
Check it out.
Post-Labor Day Rambling Blues
Random frivolities while wondering if Jerry Rice will go into the Hall of Fame as a Seahawk …
* An amusing item from today’s Mariners Notebook in the P-I:
ESPN cut to a shot of A’s manager Ken Macha kicking the door off the restroom at the end of the A’s dugout in the bottom of the sixth.
Although it might have looked as if he were kicking the door in frustration, he wasn’t. Blanton, who had kicked the door in frustration, was inside. And his kicks had jammed the door.
Oakland bench coach Rene Lachemann, the former Mariners coach, tried to kick the door back into shape. He was unsuccessful. But martial arts student Macha got it done with a few well-placed kicks.
Note to Mariners: if we brawl with the A’s, don’t assume that Macha’s a pushover because he looks like a medieval studies professor.
Note to Jeff Liefer: might want to see if you can catch on with the A’s. It could save you 20 minutes in a key situation.
* Speaking of the P-I and football, if you like that sport where the ball bounces funny, check out my man Danny O’Neil’s Hawks training camp blog. Rumor has it that other denizens of the M’s blogosphere discuss the pratfalls of the Hometown Eleven fairly regularly, too.
* Jeff “Don’t Call Me Matt” Clement is off to a hot start. And you likely know this already, but it’s pronounced CLEHM-ent, not cle-MENT like the Red Sox pitcher. Potato, potahto, tomato, tomahto.
Although now that I think about it, the hobbits in Lord of the Rings say “potato,” but also “tomahto.” This inconsistency is almost as bad as excising the Dernhelm plotline.
Let’s call the whole thing off. As long as we’re discussing pronunciation, though …
* Linguistic conspiracy theory: It cannot be a coincidence that Rick Rizzs pronounces Yorvit Torrealba’s first name exactly the same as he pronounces the appellation of sponsor Jorve Roofing. Clearly, subconscious marketing at work. We should start checking the broadcasts for backward masking.
If I were JoeJessica*, I would see if I could finagle an endorsement deal out of this. “Because everything you call home is … behind the plate”? “Because home is where the catcher is”? Okay, there’s a reason I’m not in advertising.
* Randy Winn, pre-trade: 102 games, six home runs. Randy Winn, post-trade: 32 games, five home runs. Don’t call it a comeback. He’s been here for years. Here’s wishing Winn, a class guy and a quality player, much continued success except during certain obvious interleague play situations.
The Attrition War, Summary and Conclusions
The Mariners suffer more serious arm injuries than other major league teams. This is indisputable. From Ryan Anderson’s multiple shoulder issues to Jorge Campillo’s one-inning debut-and-shutdown (“Hello!” “Goodbye!”) we’ve seen the Mariner system decimated in recent years. This is not a perception issue that’s a result of being too close to the problem.
For this work, I looked at every team’s pitching prospects, as ranked by Baseball America, from 1995-2004, and attempted to find which prospects had serious arm or shoulder injuries requiring surgery that cost them a year of playing time. You can read the methodology notes, or go to the index page for links to all the team pages.
In absolute terms, the Mariners tied with the Reds with nine serious injuries. As a percentage of prospects, they were tied with the Brewers for second place with 32%. The average team was at 20%. Standard deviation was 2.4 (8%). The Mariners were two deviations from the mean. That’s significant, but it’s not huge.
Team # Shldr Elbow Total Inj. % Reds 25 7 2 9 36% Mariners 28 5 4 9 32% Brewers 25 5 3 8 32% Braves 27 4 4 8 30% Dodgers 27 3 5 8 30% Rangers 32 3 6 9 28% Cardinals 36 5 4 9 25% Cubs 37 3 6 9 24% Mets 29 2 5 7 24% Orioles 31 3 4 7 23% Yankees 26 2 4 5 23% Tigers 32 4 3 7 22% Royals 24 2 3 5 21% Astros 29 5 1 6 21% Diamondbacks 20 0 4 4 20% Indians 36 2 5 7 19% White Sox 33 2 4 6 18% Angels 28 2 3 5 18% Devil Rays 17 1 2 3 18% Marlins 34 3 3 6 18% Giants 31 2 3 5 16% Phillies 28 3 1 4 14% Rockies 28 3 1 4 14% Pirates 22 0 3 3 14% Blue Jays 24 1 2 3 13% Nationals 32 1 3 4 13% Red Sox 32 1 3 4 13% Padres 28 0 3 3 11% Twins 22 1 1 2 9% Athletics 32 0 0 0 0% Average 28.7 2.5 3.2 5.6 20% Total 855 75 95 170
I looked at “expected injury rate”, figuring that 1/5th of the pitchers would get injured. The Mariners were four pitchers above that, along with the Reds, with the Brewers at three. You would expect the A’s to have six pitchers go down during this period. They had none.
Here are the questions that have come up repeatedly:
Read more
The Attrition War, Methodology notes
This is the really dry part where I talk about problems with the data and issues encountered. Read more
Game 137: Mariners at Athletics
RHP King Felix Hernandez vs. RHP Joe Blanton, 1:05pm, FSN/ESPN/ESPN2 and KOMO. I have no idea what your local/regional TV situation might be, so you’ll have to check it out for yourself.
Remember at the beginning of the year, when everyone (well, most everyone) said the A’s would be awful because they traded away Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder? The two guys who took those spots in the rotation were Joe Blanton and Danny Haren.
Joe Blanton: 36.8, $316,500
Danny Haren: 30.4, $323,500
TOTAL: 67.2, $640,000
Tim Hudson: 36.6, $6,750,000
Mark Mulder: 35.5, $6,550,000
TOTAL: 72.1, $13,300,000
The first number is 2005 VORP. The second is 2005 salary. With Blanton-Haren, the A’s are getting 93% of the Hudson-Mulder performance for roughly 5% of the cost. Meanwhile, Oakland is 76-60 and a game back in both the division and wild card races thanks to the second-best team ERA in the league. Billy Beane — what a frickin’ idiot.
RF Ichiro
CF Reed
LF Ibanez
1B Sexson
3B Beltre
“DH” Dobbs
2B Lopez
C JoeJessica
SS Betancourt
Happy Felix Day!