Free Agent Landmines
We’ve done several posts outlining free agent acquisitions that we think would be a great fit for the M’s. Don’t worry, we’re not done. I’ve got a few more individual posts to go before we reveal the giant overall offseason plan. Today, though, let’s talk about the guys to avoid, the albatross contracts just waiting to happen. One of the risks of the free agent market is the significant chance of buying a soon-to-be-sunk-cost. There are potential landmines everywhere in the free agent market. Last year, teams flushed money down the drain on Edgar Renteria ($40 million), Russ Ortiz ($32 million), Eric Milton ($24 million), Jaret Wright ($21 million), Corey Koskie ($18 million), and Cristian Guzman ($16 million). Those guys were basically replacement level players, not significantly better than a run-of-the-mill minimum salary performer. And they’re all signed for several more seasons, dragging their teams payroll down and being a millstone around the franchise’s proverbial neck.
These are the contracts you have to avoid. And there are some glaring landmine potentials in this free agent class.
Jarrod Washburn, LHP, Angels
Washburn had the greatest positive difference of any pitcher in the American League between his actual ERA and his fielding independant ERA. His 3.20 ERA was great. His 4.39 FIP is totally mediocre. His expected FIP, which normalizes his home run rate based on the amount of flyballs he allowed, was 5.01. His strikeout rate stinks, he’s an extreme flyball pitcher, and he’s got middling command. Run away, run away…
Matt Morris, RHP, Cardinals
Since the all-star break, Matt Morris has been, well, awful. His numbers across the board have taken a nosedive. His strikeout rate has fallen and he’s getting lit up like a Christmas tree. He has a history of arm problems, and at this point, wouldn’t be a good bet even on a one year contract. Given his reputation and his overall totals, someone is certainly going to overpay.
Kenny Rogers, LHP, Rangers
There’s no way the M’s pursue him, but Kenny Rogers is in for a massive collapse next year. His peripherals across the board this season were poor with one exception; his home run rate. He allowed just 7 percent of his flyballs to leave the yard. That’s not sustainable. His exepected fielding independant ERA was 4.88. I’d be surprised if Kenny Rogers was still a major league pitcher at this time next year.
Bengie Molina, C, Angels
He’s got the rep as the best free agent catcher on the market. That shows just how bad this free agent catching crop is, I guess. Anyone want to pay for the age 31-33 seasons of an out-of-shape catcher who has a career .272/.308/.395 line? Anyone? Anyone? Bueller? Bueller?
Other potential landmines include Todd Jones, Trevor Hoffman, Mike Piazza, Jason LaRue, and Jason Johnson. Also, Jeff Suppan, if the Cardinals decline his option.
If you see the M’s pursuing any of these players, it’s bad news. These guys are the prime candidates for the bad offseason signings of 2005. Avoid like the plague.
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77 Responses to “Free Agent Landmines”
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Those are very good observations…with great data to back it up. I find it hard to disagree with you on any of those players. This is what sets this blog apart from others. You don’t just judge players on names, but their actual performances and data.
I would like to hear whom you think they should go for!
I think Burnett and the Japanese pitcher are interesting options barring price. Five years for $65 million for AJ seems really steep. I do think they should keep Moyer (for less than $8 mil of course).
Agreed, agreed, agreed.
This is not where I want our money to go.
I don’t know if I totally agree with you on Molina. He’s certainly not a superstar and I wouldn’t want to pay him anything like big bucks, but he would probably be an upgrade to the Torealba/Rivera comb. I imagine he’ll be too expensive, but that doesn’t mean avoid him, just avoid overpaying for him.
Is Dmitri Young a free agent? I thought he had an $8 million option that vested with 500 PAs, and he ended up with 509.
I’ve been extremely surprised by how many people on a few other Mariners message boards have been pining for Bavasi to go out and sign Jarrod Washburn. In fact, a lot of posts I’ve read (not on this site, mind you) have listed Washburn as a “top of the rotation” starter and have him as a top priority signing this off-season. Are you kidding me?! Talk about a luck-driven pitcher, sheesh. Steer far clear, Bavasi. Pleeeeeeease.
Hmm. Nice catch. The list on Wikipedia has him as a free agent. I’ll edit him out of the post.
the Star-Ledger Yankee wrap (which as usual is full of laughs) has this fine oxymoron:
WISH LISTS:
Biggest needs: A catcher to phase in as a replacement for the declining Jorge Posada … Free-agent targets: Angels catcher Bengie Molina, Padres catcher Ramon Hernandez.
Bengie “is” having a nice post season which will also induce someone (please not the Mariners) to offer a big number to him in hopes he’ll produce like this for the whole 06 season and beyond.
I just can’t imagine a 31 yr old, fat guy (I know, not PC however accurate) having any upside, at all. If you got him cheap with incentives, he could be a decent DH with the ability to be a back up catcher for someone. I just pray it’s not us.
Washburn is a bit of an enigma. His numbers do raise the caution flag. However, he flat out wins some ball games. He kept the Sox off the bases two nights ago and seems to be in the right spot. Perhaps he is of the Paul Abbot kind of lucky by being on a very good team with lots of runs scored.
Dave, on Dmitri Young (I hope you saved his write-up for a possible future trade target landmine post), if the left-handed sock proved elusive this offseason (say, the Yankees overpay Jacque Jones to play CF and other alternatives do not work out) and the Tigers offered Young for Pineiro with the Tigers eating the salary difference, do you make that deal (recognizing that it makes Ibanez your everyday leftfielder)?
No way. I have no interest in Dmitri Young, period.
How do you guys feel about any potential trades for Adam Dunn or Aubrey Huff as the lefty-sock wearers?
Do the M’s even have enough young value to trade?
Dave, great list! Thank you for including Jeff Suppan and Trevor Hoffman.
I notice you didn’t put Johnny Damon on that list. Wouldn’t you see him as a “run-away” free-agent as well?
Hmmm … surprised that for the right price and contract length, Washburn would not be an option as a BOTTOM of the rotation starter. Seems like flyball, LHPs would have a better than even chance of overacheiving at the Safe?
There’s no reason to believe Dunn is available. I covered this in the Jacque Jones thread.
Aubrey Huff just isn’t very good, and he’s expensive.
Damon, I think, can play at a high level for at least the next couple of years. He may end up being an albatross, but I don’t think he’s an instantly bad signing.
And if you’re acquiring a player who isn’t good but might overachieve in Safeco, that’s fine. Just don’t give them multiyear, multimillion dollar contracts. If you want a guy like Washburn, just trade for Sean Henn.
If Kenji Johjima’s upside is Benji Molina (per the recent Johjima thread), then I assume that the general consensus is to remain clear of Johjima as well. Or is there a disagreement on Kenji’s upside?
Molina will command something in the 3 year, $15-18 million range.
Jojima won’t come close to that over here. Tadahito Iguchi signed a 2 year, $4 million deal with the White Sox last fall. That’s about what you’re looking at for Jojima.
Johjima is making a significantly more than Iguchi was in Japan. Iguchi received a contract similar to what he was making in Japan at the time. Johjima is making about twice that right now. As much as he’d like to come to the states, why would he take a huge pay cut to do so?
Because if he wants to play in the U.S. (and all indications are that he does), he’s going to have to settle for what the market will give him. And the market for a Japanese catcher who is about to turn 30 isn’t going to be very good.
Kenny Rogers’ career pattern goes something like this:
1. Pitch at high level in Texas.
2. Get a big contract pitching for another team.
3. Pitch poorly for said team.
4. Get re-signed in Texas.
5. Repeat as desired.
No “h” in “Jojima,” Ace. The most encouraging thing about M’s interest in Jojima, imho, is that it means we almost certainly won’t be the suckers stuck with Molina. Of the guys on that albatross list, the only one I’m really worried about ending up wearing the compass rose is Washburn — which, as noted, wouldn’t be too bad if he came at a #4 starter price, but that 3.20 ERA means he won’t.
Not really, Deacon. The Gambler’s only had three seasons with an OPS below 100, and two of those were with Texas; it’s just that everybody remembers his two seasons with the Yanks and his postseason with the Mets, and even there, given the context, he was at least an average pitcher his first season in pinstripes and during the regular season for the Mets.
Depending on where you look, it’s spelled either with or without an h. There’s a lot of references online for both. I have no idea which one is right.
Traditional transliteration would leave out the H. I have no idea what Japanese pronunciation you’d represent with an H there.
I’d go with Jojima every time. At least with that spelling I know how to convert it back to Japanese.
That said, I see now that it’s spelled Johjima on his uniform.
I can’t imagine why. I’m looking for his name written in Japanese, but I can’t find it anywhere.
Thanks for the insights, Dave. Jose Cruz Jr.: Landmine or Jacque Jones Plan B (or C)?
http://japanesebaseball.com/players/player.jsp?PlayerID=102
I’d go with neither. He hits lefties just fine, but struggles badly against righties. And he’s ridiculously inconsistent. He won’t kill you, because he’s not going to get a big contract, but the M’s could do better.
I would hereby like to nominate Troy Percival (2 years/$12M 2005-06) for last year’s OMG-WTF Awards*
*Aslo called the lucky b*stard financial reward program
So Molina classifies as ‘not really good enough to justify expected salary’, then all you’re saying about Jojima/Johjima is that, AT BEST, he’s ‘not really good enough but cheap so why not?’. Doesn’t that translate into low risk/low reward? Cuz I’m thinking there’s a lot of players that fall there, many of them, catchers.
Kanji doesn’t help me much, Dave. I was hoping for something phonetic.
So here’s what I got. This is what it says on his uniform:
http://www.softbankhawks.co.jp/headlines/2005/09/11/05v.html
And this is how they spell his name on the Fukuoka Daiei Hawks web site:
ジョウジマ　ケンジ
I’d transliterate that a very sloppy Jyoujima Kenji.
There’s no jo in Japanese, so the ji and yo just run together to form jyo (which actually makes a lot of sense is you pay attention to how we say Joe).
The u gets added to elongate the o sound (much like the ー at the end of Ichiro’s name, but they drop it in the transliteration so it doesn’t read Ichirou or Ichiroo).
So the H just tells us that the jo is a longer syllable than either the ji or the ma. I’ll accept that.
So Molina classifies as ‘not really good enough to justify expected salary’, then all you’re saying about Jojima/Johjima is that, AT BEST, he’s ‘not really good enough but cheap so why not?’. Doesn’t that translate into low risk/low reward? Cuz I’m thinking there’s a lot of players that fall there, many of them, catchers.
I think there’s a good chance that Jojima outhits Molina next year. My guess for Jojima in Safeco would be something like .260/.340/.420 or something to that effect. For something in the $2 million range with no long term commitment, that’s a huge bargain.
Good list. I’d avoid those guys, too.
I would add that I feel Molina’s defense is also overrated. In his peak for throwing runners out, he was throwing them out at an over 40% rate, which is quite good. However, it always seemed like he was poor at blocking balls in the dirt, not shifting his weight very often, but just trying to glove balls that were low and inside/outside. Passed balls often amount to stolen bases without the risk of getting caught (also, home is almost never stolen, but is often taken on passed balls), and this year Molina had 10 passed balls in 100 games, which I doubt is a very good number.
Could we please add Jeff Weaver to this list? He (and his agent) are looking for way too much. At best he may be a good risk at #4 type money.
Whether it’s “Jo” or “Joh” depends on the Romanization system you use. The extra “h” means there’s an additional “o” sound (written with the “u” kana) after the “jo”, some systems ignore it (e.g. Tokyo is written in kana as to-u-kyo-u, Toukyou or Tohkyoh). Another example is Ichiro, written as i-chi-ro-u.
Maybe the Yankees will sign all of those guys! Even better if the Angels and Athletics did.
I suspect Jeff Weaver has already floundered publicly enough not to command a huge deal. Washburn however has the low ERA, the ‘winner’ rep, the post-season experience, the World Series ring…
I’m terrified that Bavasi – with his Angels connections and short but memorable history of signing bad Angels players for the Mariners – will want him. Either that or some dullard in the FO, envious of the more successful team down the coast, will pressure the GM to steal their ‘Ace’.
Does anyone have any idea if the Angels intend to re-sign Washburn?
Jojima (or Johjima, either is acceptable I believe) has expressed interest in playing for a major league baseball team, but has also expressed an interest in staying with his own team, the Softbank Hawks in Japan.
http://www.japanball.com/news.phtml?id=4345
If he doesn’t get a contract that’s at least in the same range as what he’s receiving right now, he probably won’t make the transition. The Hawks offered him a three year contract, which indicates that the Hawks are very concerned about retaining him, and he refused it, instead opting to sign a one year contract worth 500 million yen.
I highly doubt 2 million would do it, considering he plays his position very well and has put up excellent numbers in Japan. The Mets would assuredly sack Piazza and sign Johjima for 3-4 million, perhaps even 5, which is what he’s making in Japan right now.
Domovoi (#34) has it right. Whether you spell it Jojima, Joujima or Johjima depends upon the romanizations system you use (the way Japanese kana are rendered in English). The Associated Press goes with Jojima, and an an adherent to AP style, so did I.
The Angels have a lot of arms…
Colon, Escobar, Lackey, Erwin Santana, Byrd, etc.
I’m not sure of the contract situation of these guys, but I have to imagine they let Washburn go at the price he’d want and move Santana into the rotation permanently.
I hope Washburn wins game 7 of the WS for the Angels with a series of 380′ lineouts to deep left field, creating irresistable pressure on the Angel’s front office to resign him for five years/$60 million.
Going over that Wikipedia list of eligible free agents, an interesting name came up. This is, if we do go out and get Jacque Jones.
How much do you think Rondell White would go for? He wears out lefties and is coming off of shoulder surgery which keeps his price relatively low. Think he can be had for about 2 million?
Given his injury histroy, he would be a perfect platoon player.
#39– Washburn seems to think so — from the LA Times in August: “The closest Jarrod Washburn has come to negotiations for a contract extension this season was this recent exchange between the Angel left-hander and General Manager Bill Stoneman: “Bill said ‘Hello’ to me,” Washburn said. That’s about as far as talks have progressed. The Angels have made it clear they will wait until after the season to decide whether to offer a contract to Washburn, who will be a free agent. But with every superb start by rookie right-hander Ervin Santana, who is 7-5 with a 4.41 earned-run average, and with left-hander Joe Saunders’ outstanding spot start against Toronto on Aug. 16, it’s becoming more clear to Washburn that he has little chance of remaining with the Angels beyond 2005. Asked whether he saw the writing on the wall, Washburn, 30, said, “Who wouldn’t? The young guys coming up, doing what they’ve done, it makes their decision easier or harder, depending on how you look at it.”"
Thanks to Evan and domovoi on the transliteration; I have a couple good friends who are fluent in Japanese and spent significant time in Japan, and I couldn’t think why that “h” would be there. Now it makes more sense that some would romanize his name that way — though it still looks odd to me.
I agree on everyone mentioned, except that I wonder about Jason Johnson. Not that I want to pursue him, but I didn’t expect he would get any kind of big-money future-albatross contract anyway with his age, obvious mediocrity, and lousy win-loss record. Although I suppose if the free agent market continues like it did last year, I could be wrong.
I too spell it Johjima because that’s what he has on his uniform. The “ou” romanization for the long O sound always seems to confuse people who aren’t familiar with it, but so does “oo”; then again, most people here can’t hear the difference between a long and short O sound anyway, so it’s sort of a moot point.
I couldn’t sleep last night, so I ended up watching part of last night’s Hawks-Marines playoff game over the net. It was awesome! Jolbert Cabrera smacked a solo home run to break the 0-0 deadlock in the 5th, but the Marines got 3 runs in the 6th and held onto that lead, winning 3-2 (with another solo homer for the Hawks from Kawasaki in the bottom of the 6th). And Sadaharu Oh really looked sort of pained every time Matoba (the guy who’s been catching mostly since Johjima’s injury) went out there and struck out. Hee. Fortunately, I’m rooting for Lotte.
Anyway, a little more on-topic — people seem to see the last name Molina and immediately assume “good catcher”, even if they can’t remember which Molina they’re talking about at the time. Though Bengie is the best hitter of the three, isn’t he?
#45– makes me think of the way various announcers fought with their emphasis on the double-i in Ishii
The Mets would assuredly sack Piazza and sign Johjima for 3-4 million, perhaps even 5, which is what he’s making in Japan right now.
By all accounts the Mets are spooked by their recent experience with Japanese players (getting the wrong Matsui is evidently far worse than getting the wrong Molina), and while they probably will be trying to replace Piazza I wouldn’t be so sure they’ll look that far east to replace him. Even if the FO can convince themselves Jo[h]jima is a good deal, they probably don’t want to have the PR challenge of replacing Piazza and convincing their fan base this Japanese import will be different.
Besides, the Mets are trying to become “Latin America’s team” so what better way to do that than by picking up a Molina?
Dave, as usual you are on the money. Only thing I could find to quibble about was the notion that Bengie Molina is thought of as the best free agent catcher on the market. I would have given that nod to Ramon Herndandez, who is a year younger, a better defensive catcher, and IMO is a touch better offensively.
I think we can all agree that if the M’s are pursuing either of these guys, they’ve got their priorities screwed up, though.
You could also use JÅjima, which is the way my Japanese history text does the long O.
I am worried about the upcoming crop of free agents. It doesn’t appear to have many desirable players. I am afraid that if we sign a couple of players in the offseason, they will stink, we will have not improved and we will be too tied up in bad contracts to pursue worthwhile FAs in the following offseason. I know that Bavasi cannot afford this kind of logic, but if the player is not going to be a dramatic improvement over what we would fill the position with otherwise, don’t buy. If we are determined to make improvements but the free agent market looks no better, then we should look for trades. No more Rich Aurillias. No James Baldwins. Not even any more Randy Winns. Maybe not even anymore Rauls.
The second worst offense in the AL west (LA-Anaheim-City of Industry-Angels) scored 63 runs more than the Mariners. The Texas Rangers gave up more than 100 runs more, but also scored 166 runs more. We need to improve our runs scored/Runs Allowed by a good chunk (+60) just to get out of the basement. If we keep our pitching constant, we need to score 60 more runs… to fight for 3rd in the division.
If we are going to bridge that 60 run gap, then save your pennies, play the youngsters. If you get a chance to sign someone who will account for a big chunk of the 60, do it.
Just a thought of mine. Would it be wise to not spend our money this offseason on marginal pitchers so that we will still have money to spend next offseason when the FA crop is alot better. ALOT. Still go get a Lefty with sock, but save some money for players that will really help us in the long run?
You could also use JÅjima, which is the way my Japanese history text does the long O.
Or — to minimize the diacritics the uniform folks have to deal with, and to honorarily latinize him — how about Jõhjima?
Wakiri-no-mas, amigo-san.
Would it be wise to not spend our money this offseason on marginal pitchers so that we will still have money to spend next offseason when the FA crop is alot better.
It might be, but next year’s free agent crop probably looks better while it’s still on the other side of the fence. By the time it actually rolls around, the best guys may have signed extensions, others will have gotten hurt or pitched lousy, and the market will probably have pushed prices even higher. Plus the front office says they don’t carry payroll budget savings over from one year to the next.
Or we could all just stop talking about how to spell somethign that’s not an english word.
Hopefully we pick him up and he’s good for the team. With the free agent market as lousy as it is, picking people up outside of the market seems like a really good idea to me.
#47:
The Mets were just an example, as there are a few teams that could use upgrades at the catching position. If the Mets want to get bogged down in their fallacious logic and fear of Japanese players, that’s their own agenda. But if anyone has some gray matter left in that front office, they’d know that Johjima is a better option than Molina and that the disappointment of Kaz Matsui shouldn’t deter them. Piazza is likely gone either way, so that shouldn’t factor into the equation much.
In general, a smart GM will look at Johjima’s 850+ OPS that’s continued to climb for the past three years, look at his great defense behind the plate, and realize that they could pay four million for an above average offensive and defensive catcher, much in the same way Williams did when he saw Iguchi on the market.
Additionally, a team wouldn’t necessarily be tied down to Johjima like the Mets are to K-Mat. In general, Japanese players who are posted sign long-term contracts while the Japanese free agents are likely to get short-term deals so that the team can test the waters before making a commitment.
A commitment to the previously suggested JoeJima could solve this problem.
#53 I agree with that
It just seems to me that it would be wise not to spend our money on the best FA pitchers when they aren’t #1 type starters. I understand that we won’t carry the money over, but why sign a Burnett type pitcher for 5 year 50mil if we can even get him at that. that 10mil out of 90 budget that is locked up for 5 years. No disrespect to Burnett but if he was a FA next year he would be had for less money.
Dave, you forgot to add Ryan Franklin to your list.
Jarrod Washburn is for people who value “wins” over performance. Remember when they always gave the Cy Young Award to the pitcher who had the most wins, no matter how crappy he was? Steve Stone, Pete Vukovich, LaMarr Hoyt. A lot of people — and a lot of organizations are still mesmerized by guys who once won 18 games in a season.
#56– or just using Kenji.
I studied Japanese for one term at University – reading hiragana and katakana is pretty much all I can do.
I’ve been trying to learn Kanji through kanjisite.com, but I’m, still lousy at it.
Even though I now understand why the name is spelt Johjima, I still think Jojima (or Jyojima) makes more sense. I’d try to avoid Jyojima just because or how badly westerners tends to pronounce any of the *y* syllables, too, leaving us with Jojima.
For an example of how badly westerners pronounce the *y* syllables, think back to Ryu, that character from Street Fighter. That should be one syllable. Try to pronounce it as just one syllable.
No, I can’t do it either.
What about Billy Wags? I think he’ll be a good bet to be overpaid for a few years of steep decline/breakdown. I do think the M’s will be smart enough to avoid him.
What about Nomar? You could make a case for him being a huge risk, with his recent injury history. On the other hand, he is the only opportunity I see for a potential 2001 Bret Boone signing – MVP talent on an affordable one-year deal. It would raise the opportunity for a cool offense / defense / platoon split arrangement between Ibanez / Snelling (God willing) / Nomah / Betancourt / SS / DH / LF. But if he gets a three-year guaranteed deal, he probably belongs on the AVOID list.
What about Paul Byrd? I don’t really know what to make of him. He gets the ball over the plate and uses his defense. But guys like him go away really quickly when their marginal stuff starts to go.
Everytime I see “Jojima” I try to pronounce it like the Spanish-speaking people would…”Ho-hima”…and then I think of Ho-Hos…and then I want to eat one.
Hostess Ho-Hos?!
Dave- As always appreciate your posts. This was late for me so will only observe that it is very SAFE to print that Ken Rodgers will not be pitching in MLB at this time next year.
Odds are King Felix will not be pitching at this time next year either. Now if June or July is your bet will reconsider.
Pensive. You doubt the M’s big, Felix-led rebound to the ALCS? Shame on you.
How valuable a tool is VORP for predicting future pitching performance?
’cause Kenny Rogers is right there in 2005 alongside our wish-dream AJ Burnett.
1) nice.
2) ???? if anyone on this site does see the M’s going for a player that has been black listed here. Is there an email or reg. mail address we can send our thoughts to?
3) I have the feeling all the players mentioned will find a home somewhere. Seems like “gut” feelings tends to lead a GM’s motivations more than the numbers do.
I, for one, do not see the free agent class after 06 as much better than this class. It might be a little deeper and that’s before extensions are signed.
67 – yes, like Jim Bowden’s gut feeling that Christian Guzman was a contributor.
That deal bugs me more than any of the other examples of wasted money that Dave cites above. With Renteria and Koskie GMs paid big money for average players; with Wright, Ortiz and Milton, GMs looked at some superficially good numbers and ignored the other stats that pointed to their utter mediocrity. With Guzman, what was there ever to see other than mediocrity? His complete worthlessness with the bat has been obvious for years. No gaudy HR totals to blind a GM, no ‘clutch’ hits – nothing. $16M for four years for a AA player… it actually offends me anyone could be that stupid.
Colm — not defending the move here, but Guzman was a classic “toolsy” player — very fast, at least was a decent defender in seasons before this one (+14 FRAA in ‘04, before regressing to -11 this season), and was coming off his age 26 season in which his translated/park-adjusted averages were .273/.312/.388. Bowden had to have known he wasn’t getting OBP, but can be pardoned for thinking Guzman had yet to hit his peak and would deliver singles, speed, and defense. Of course, it didn’t work out that way, and many people argued the “logic” of signing Guzman to such an outlandish contract at the time, but that’s my best stab at trying to explain what Bowden might’ve been thinking.
Ahhhh, who am I kidding? Everybody knows Jim Bowden doesn’t think.
I read in a Milwaukee rag (believe it was the Journal-Sentitel or something like that) that Washburn would be very interested in signing with the Brewers since he is from Wisconisn. So you don’t have to worry about Bavasi signing this ex-Angel player.
I am pretty sure the Mariners will not go for Molina. For one, Bavasi has said in interviews that the catcher position is not his priority. If they were to go for a catcher, I would much rather see Ramon Hernandez. He was hitting pretty well (in a pitcher’s park 1/2 the time) before he got hurt. Plus he plays for our trading partner/MLB-enforced rivals…not that that really matters in signing a free-agent, but still.
Besides Spiezio, has Bavasi signed any former Angels?
I think Aaron Sele sort of qualifies.
Eric Owens.
Lemme get this straight.
Kevin Brown has more seasons in the past 4 where he’s pitched less than 100 IP than more than 150 IP.
Kenny Rogers has been healthy ALL of those seasons (that is, when he isn’t punching out photographers), with lousy peripherals (248 H in 211 2/3 IP for 2004 means LOTS of balls being put in play).
So, naturally, the guy who’s going to collapse and shouldn’t be offered an incentive-laden one year contract, is, of course, Kenny Rogers. ’cause, you know we have xFIP for Brown based on a teeny tiny sample size of 75 or so IP that say’s he’s gonna be good next year. Ignore that other stuff about how he can’t stay off the DL.
Uh, yeah.
But hey, I thought Jamie was a good candidate to collapse in 2005, so who knows? That’s why this is baseball- you end up learning the stats you use for projection aren’t all-powerful and are merely predictive but not perfect, and you get the pleasant surprises of Raul Ibañez, or unpleasant surprises like watching Olivo be wrose than anyone could imagine.
So we’ll see. I don’t think Rogers will be signed for longer than a one year deal with a vesting option based on innings pitched, any more than Jamie or Kevin Brown will, but who knows…
It doesn’t make sense to pay big money for a catcher like Molina when you have serviceable cheap alternatives (read Yorvit/Rivera) until Clement arrives.
Use the money on starting pitching and “left handed sock”.
I like Huff. I don’t like Dmitri Young. I like Arizona’s Chad Tracy (if he’s cheap).
On Brown vs. Rogers, it isn’t really who will be better, it’s who will be better relative to salary.
Your choices are Rogers at something like 2/$13M or Brown at 1/$1+$4 in incentives. I’ll take Brown every time.