Matsuzaka Will Ask Seibu To Post Him
Jeff · October 17, 2005 at 8:33 am · Filed Under General baseball, Mariners
Seibu sounds unconvinced about doing so, but the Japan Times is reporting that Daisuke Matsuzaka will ask his team to post him this offseason.
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54 Responses to “Matsuzaka Will Ask Seibu To Post Him”
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What’s the story with Japanese base stealers? Are they comparable to that in MLB, or would Matsuzaka have to test a lesser used skill?
I really hope that they post him.
If the do post him, the M’s HAVE to get him.
If they get the rights to negotiation, I think that he should cost about as much toward the payroll as Hideki Matsui did (3 years, 21 million). That seems to be the going rate for elite Japanese players.
If they can manage that, it really give the M’s a lot of options for how they fill other needs.
They could still have more than enough cash to go after AJ Burnett. I know that Dave disagreed with this, but the numbers totally add up.
I don’t think that 90 million is too much to expect as the payroll figure.
If the M’s don’t exercise Guardado’s option, and don’t bring Meche back, they can make this work no problem. Lets say, for arguments sake, that Matsuzaka gets 7 million (even if he gets 3 years, 24 mil it can still be structured with increasing salaries). Then, even if they have to overpay at 13 million/year for Burnett, it is still only 20 million. Again, they could backload Burnett’s contract a bit to free up more wiggle room.
The payroll figures on this site are pretty low. Even going with worst-case-scenario figures (including all of Ichiro’s incentives, Guardado at his player option, Sexson’s deferred bonus, and higher salaries for guys like Piñeiro, Ibañez, and Ichiro) the team can still afford these two, with enough left over to spend around 5-6 million on a LF/DH bat. I think that the M’s would be wise to try a really cheap player in LF, possibly via trade, instead of someone like Jacque Jones. I think that that money would be better spent on Kenji Jojima and trading for a player like Ryan Church.
However, the point is, this is the way that the M’s can afford to bring in TWO front of the rotation starters. With Burnett, Matsuzaka, and Felix, the M’s would have a great core to build around.
This is doable.
Can someone please explain why the Seibu FO has to be “convinced” of Matsuzaka’s worth before agreeing to post him? Does Seibu risk losing him to another Japanese team if he isn’t claimed by an MLB team?
And, I don’t think the H. Matsui comparison is valid based on 2005 numbers for Matsuzaka. Matsui was, like Ichiro at the time he arrived, easily the best and most ready of all Japanese players. There is more depth (but no sure postings for the best, that’s true)in Japan this year and a less obvious $21M/3 in the offing. I can’t judge the price, but I expect it to be less. The shortage in this year’s MLB FA market for pitchers is at the top, and Matsuzaka will find himself in the second tier.
Last year, second-tier pitchers (Wright, Milton, Perez, Lowe) across the board got at least 7million/year. What makes you think the market will be less favorable to them this year, when there are even fewer quality arms?
Forget about Burnett. M’s don’t stand a chance with the Yanks and the Red Sox, not to mention the Angels among others, all bidding for him. Why would he come to a team that doesn’t stand a chance on winning anything for at least two more years?
The Japanese free agent system is far more club-favorable. The club has the rights to Matsuzaka, so they have to be convinced to post him. I think the rhetoric in the article is just the club kind of talking around the “we’re not sure it’s in our best interests to give him up, even though he wants to go” issue.
JP — I am no expert on the Japanese leagues, by any stretch, but it is my understanding that the team controls his rights for an even longer stretch of time than MLB teams control their players, and a Japanese player cannot become a true “free agent” until they have played something like 7-8 years (and by reciprocal agreement, MLB honors that rule). So, Seibu does hold the cards here, as I understand it. All Matsuzaka can do is not play; I don’t believe he has the right (at 25-26) to go to another Japanese League team.
So, he can ask to be posted, but the cost-benefit analysis for Seibu is whether they are better off with the posting fee, or Matsuzaka for another year (or several).
#4,
The difference between Matsuzka and those guys you list are simple:
No competition from other teams.
The way that prices for players get driven up is by other teams bidding. With the posting system, other teams just bid for the negotiating rights. Once the team has one the rights to negotiate with the player, they have one month to sign him. In this case, you have a player who wants to come to the US, and only one team that give him that opportunity. It takes away a lot of the players leverage to get more money.
I listed Matsui’s initial contract as a comparison to illustrate the point that elite Japanese players just don’t command huge money in the US before they have proven themselves. Matsui’s situation was a little different. No Japense power hitter had come over previously, so there was some question on how he would do. On the other hand, he was a free agent, so other teams could negotiate with him. Thus, I still think that this is a good comparison.
RE #5,
People said the same BS about Beltre last year. This is a non-argument.
“M’s don’t stand a chance with the Yanks and the Red Sox, not to mention the Angels among others, all bidding for him.”
Have you looked at the Yankees roster? And their payroll? And their needs? The Yanks currently have Randy, Mussina, Pavano, Jaret Wright, Wang, and Chacon on the team for next year. If anything, they will be trading a starter. They need help at CF and in their pen. That is where their money will be spent.
The Angels have a similar situation. They have plenty of starting pitching: Colon, Lackey, Escobar, Santana, with Washburn and Byrd as free agents. I see them resigning one of these guys, and putting their money toward a bat (Konerko) or OF help.
The Red Sox could get into the bidding, but they are going to have to resign Damon, or find a replacement. They also have Schilling, Clement, Wells, Wakefield and Arroyo on their roster, plus they have a load of young pitchers who are nearly ready, including Jon Papelbon, who will likely make the rotation next year.
Clearly, you are just listing these teams because they have high payroll, without really considering what they will do.
“Why would he come to a team that doesn’t stand a chance on winning anything for at least two more years?”
Money! Players do this every offseason. With Burnett, he has stated that he wants to stay on the east coast. However, with Baltimore and Toronto the only teams in the east that are likely to make a bid for him, the M’s could have a shot. There are rumors that Burnett does not want to pitch for a huge-market team (Yankees, Mets, Red Sox), so that makes things a lot easier.
There is no reason that the M’s don’t have a shot at him. They would be dumb to not pursue him. I am not saying that he is the only option. They should look into Kevin Millwood as well. But I like Burnett the best.
I understand Seibu holds the cards, as noted here, but their comments here make them seem like an awful bunch of people no one would want to play for. This is low.
#9,
Yeah, that was my impression as well. That is a pretty lame thing to say about your ace pitcher and the face of the organization.
The manager could have just as easily said “this guy is way to important to our team for us to sell him off” or something along these lines.
Bad form. Perhaps things are different in Japan, and this type of comment is acceptable. But that is pretty low.
The other part of the financial equation is the amount required to “win” the posting. Any idea about how much this would require and is Seibu required to accept a winning bid that they deem too low?
Not that anyone else cares, but a Lotte baseball team will be in the Japan Series for the first time since 1974! (They beat the Hawks in Second Stage last night.) I guess there is *some* upside to the Lions and Hawks star players defecting… maybe if Matsuzaka leaves too, my Fighters will make it next year! Wheeeee!
Also, Seibu’s “ace” this year was Nishiguchi with his 17-5 record, after all. Never mind the peripherals.
Jerry: there might not be an MLB bidding war, but I don’t think Matsuzaka will sign for way under his value. I have no clue what Seibu would be paying him in 2006, but it’s not peanuts. The team that wins negotiating rights is obligated to treat him fairly. The Mariners, in particular, have an interest in preserving a favorable reputation among players in Japan.
Ichiro’s contract, negotiated with exclusive rights, was slightly over $4 million annually. As Dave pointed out in the earlier Matsuzaka thread, that was five years ago, and Ichiro was an entirely unknown quantity. Inflation alone pushes that number over 5 million, and Matsuzaka’s in a better bargaining position than Ichiro was. 6 million annually is the absolute lowest I see Matsuzaka signing for, and I think that’s a real stretch.
A question about the posting system: In case a MLB team acquires the right to negotiate and then fails to agree on a contract with the player, do they get the posting fee back? If not, that would give the player a lot of leverage in his contract negotiations.
They get the money back and the player returns to the Japanese team’s control.
#14 and others.
I don’t think we should get too focused on the apparent process. If the Mariners want Matsuzaka, there almost certainly are negotiations going on behind the scenes. If the Mariners decide to get involved, they will land Matsuzaka. The process will be managed to assure that happens while all of the details of the posting process are superficially met.
The statements by Seibu could easily be a signal that they are not satisfied with the posting fees that have been discussed.
That’s a substantial allegation to make. Is there any evidence that this is the case, or is this a theory?
Yeah. While it’s true that M’s by virtue of their ownership might have informal backchannels to the Japanese clubs that are unavailable to other MLB teams, asserting the whole process is cooked smacks of larger black helicopter conspiracies involving the trilateral commision and the Rothschildes running everything in the world from a golden rastafarian palace in a cavern under the sea.
w/r/t 17, 18, 19:
I agree in principle with Steve. I don’t think it would be wise to assume that what you read from Seibu should be taken plainly at face value, like we might if stated by a US team. I doubt Steve is suggesting quite what Shoeless Jose is conjuring up, but business communication is done diffently in Japan than here.
I didn’t say corruptly, but I did say differently.
My comment is based on some communications and comments I have seen with some baseball fans in Japan. As with many things in Japanese life and commerce, what is visible on the surface is often different from what happens behind the scenes. NPB does not operate differently from Japanese society.
These fans feel that the Mariners are in a much better position to make things happen with Matsuzaka if they want him. There are many opportunities to make side deals, or assure that certain things happen that might seem unrelated.
I like my tinfoil hats loose with a pointy top.
M’s don’t stand a chance with the Yanks and the Red Sox, not to mention the Angels among others, all bidding for him. Why would he come to a team that doesn’t stand a chance on winning anything for at least two more years?
If the Mariners have the highest posting bid he has no choice but to negotiate with the team with the highest bid unless the Seibu reject the offer altogether. So I don’t see where your arguement about him not coming to non contening team, as of now, like the Mariners. He really has no other choice.
My comment is based on some communications and comments I have seen with some baseball fans in Japan. As with many things in Japanese life and commerce, what is visible on the surface is often different from what happens behind the scenes. NPB does not operate differently from Japanese society.
I don’t doubt that this is true. However, Ichiro’s posting was a huge event, covered in detail at the time and since then. “Out of Left Field” has an excellent insider view of this, as I recall.
None of them have any mention of back-end negotiations. The Mariners, it is said, bid $12.5m because they wanted to be certain they would win. If they had an in, or it was pre-arranged, why bid so far above other teams? If Orix was demanding through backchannels that teams bid at least x amount, why did other teams not meet that threshold — were they out of the discussion all along, but unaware they’d been cut out? Why did the other teams, including those skilled at media manipulation, not leak anything about this, either during the process, or afterwards, as an explanation of why they had lost out? Why hasn’t any of this come out in the four years since Ichiro came over, or in the context of any subsequent Japanese posting?
#22:
I don’t think it’s a tinfoil hat situation at all.
Without even conidering baseball, let’s imagine that a set of rules are established for how something will be done. Let’s say it’s something such as procedures for bidding on government contracts or requirements for listing public securities. Now consider two options for how those activities will be conducted.
Option A: everyone sees the rules, follows the rules, and if they don’t get what they want, they say, “Aw, shucks. Well, I’ll just have to try harder next time.:
Option B: the players look at the situation and the rules, and they figure out how they can game the rules to work in their favor, including working behind the scenes, sharing little perks and influences, looking for opportunities for mutual backscratching, etc.
Don’t you think Option B describes the real world much more accurately than Option A? And if you concur with that statement, why imagine that the process of posting baseball players in Japan is more like Option A than Option B?
Personally, I think it’s naive to imagine that the process strictly follows the “written procedures” set out in the protocols between MLB and NPB, particularly when there are significant incentives and opportunities to work behind the scenes to influence the outcome. I can’t see any reason why the incentives to work behind the scenes would be less than they are in the US (where that kind of thing happens all of the time); to the contrary, I think it’s more likely that behind the scenes manipulation would occur in Japan.
Well…I agree that many people work situations to their advantage. Human nature. I also believe that many organizations do follow the rules as they are laid out and play far. I also like any opportunity to discuss my tin fashion statements.
But again — in Option B, that the process works that way leaks. There is — again — no information to point us to the conclusion besides your thought experiment, and the absolute lack of any information that supports the thought experiment is better evidence that posting is clean as your common-sense argument that there’s backroom brokering afoot.
There should be a distinction drawn between possible off-the-record dealings. On one end of the spectrum, the Japanese team may generally let it be known that it wants a posting fee of at least $ X amount. I am not sure that would violate the posting rules, as no team gains an unfair advantage. This is akin to what happens with soon-to-be-free-agents prior to the official signing period (e.g., the story floating that A.J. Burnett wants at least “Pavano” money). If word gets around that the Lions are looking for “Ichiro” money, that would not be surprising.
At the other end of the spectrum is the suggestion that the Japanese team would actually strike a deal with an MLB team in advance. That would be outright tampering with the process. Given the likely consequences and likelihood that it could be discovered, such collusion would be very surprising.
#27: It is all hypothetical. That’s the beauty of conspiracy theories!!!
But you are assuming that leaks would occur under Process B. I believe there are lots of situations where hidden deals are effectively concealed, even in potentially high visibility situations where there are parties with much to gain by exposing such dealmaking.
Where clubs are parts of larger corporate operations (as they are in Japan) where there are many commercial opportunities not related to business, balancing arrangements can easily be made in activities totally unrelated to baseball. The true nature of the activity can easily be held within a small circle of people who routinely hold such information as part of their normal business.
For a team to successfully rig a posting, and have no rumors surface afterward, they would have to limit knowledge to an extremely small number of people, and then never let those people leave their employment and especially never let them go work for another major league team. There is no way the teams that got shafted would keep silent about this under some kind of gentleman’s agreement if they ever got wind of it.
You can “successfully” collude when there’s a reasonably-sized market involved and the cost savings are apparent to all the teams (free agency, 1985-87, and even then the rumors were around at the time). But I can’t fathom how, for a scenario that occurs so infrequently, teams let somebody get set up with an unfair competitive advantage and simply wait until their turn comes up to get the same advantage.
#30:
Mike: If there’s collusion, it would occur in Japan, not in the US. That is precisely where knowledge can be limited to a smaller number of people, where quid pro quo can be most easily accomplished, where that type of accomodation is more routinely conducted (and accepted) as part of normal activities, and where the third parties who might be in a position to know (i.e., other NPB clubs) have little to gain by exposing the affair.
I agree with you totally if an MLB club tried to manipulate the system. But I don’t think that’s the way it would be done.
Tin hats for everyone.
#23, he was talking about Burnett.
Which is also a bogus argument I think, fans always say stuff like that, but in probably 99.9% (ok exaggeration for effect) of situations where Free Agents change teams they take the highest bid.
Let’s see, the M’s have come nearly $20M under their stated 2005 payroll budget. AND, for the past 4 years straight they have come under their stated budget on avg of approxs $17M EACH AND EVERY year!
I really can’t see then NOT be the most aggresive bidder out of all MLB teams for Matsuzaka! Seattle is VERY well in tune with what they will have to post to get the bid, AND they have a TON of money that they’ve been pocketing for a long time that they can use to get this done.
ALSO, just a FYI…Matsuzaka is ONLY scheduled to make a total of $2.5M in 2006!!! Yes, we have the success of Ichiro. BUT, we also have the misery of seeing little Matsui with the Mets, and even Matsui with NYY took a HUGE adjustment when coming to MLB.
I’ve also have heard comments that he would like to play with Ichiro. Ichiro to took a VERY small contract to come to MLB, plus he knew the M’s posted something like $12.5M for the posting fee (or whatever it was)! I can see Matsuzaka agreeing to a modest 3yr contract, that seems pretty standard, so he has time to adjust. AND before he ends up getting that HUGE contract offer.
If my memory serves me right, Ichiro agreed to a 3yr deal that paid him between $3.5M-6.5M/year. The 1st year was really cheap, and by the 3rd year I sure he was making around $6.5M…prior to signing the HUGE 4yr deal with the M’s. I’m also sure that our owner over in Japan has the inside scoop on the demands & expectations of the Seibu’s, and thus if posted we should easily be in the running for the highest bidder.
Also, regarding the Yanks. Their 2006 rotation is pretty close to being set. Chacon is a FA, but no doubt the Yanks will get him resigned! They have RJ/Mussina/Chacon/Wang/Small with Pavano/Wright they will no doubt try and trade, and if not will keep as fillin starters next year. Yanks are desperate in getting Matsui resigned, because there really isn’t anyone out in the FA market that can replace his 300BA. I’ve heard their offer will be in the $36M range at $12M/year with an option year. AlSO, they have a major weakness to fill at CF/1B & RP’s!! Boston too has other concerns other than their pitching this year.
Teams like the Toronto & the Orioles will be the ones that have a ton of money this year to throw at pitching.
I can see Matsuzaka signing a $13-15M contract over the course of 3yrs…and averaging $4-5M/year. BUT, I also see the M’s having to dish out between $12.5-15M just for the posting fee too!
It’s nice to no that the posting fee WILL NOT go against our 2006 payroll budget though. And since this is the case, and if Matsuzaka’s 1st contract year could “possibly” be around $4M-5M for the 1st year…I can actually see the M’s still going hard after Burnett for $10-13M/year and Millwood for $9-11M/year.
THEN, trading Pineiro/Meche for that power LHB!
Wouldn’t that be interesting to see the M’s get so aggressive this offseason that they sign:
1. Matsuzaka ($12-15M posting fee with a $13-15M 3yr contract)
2. Burnett ($10-13M/yr 4yr with 5th option year)
3. Millwood ($9-10M/yr 3yr with 4th option year)
4. Trade Pineiro/Meche for a power LHB.
Interestingly, Philly’s are rumored at trying their hardest to move Thome and knowing they will have to probably pay half his contract over the next 4yrs.
“IF” the M’s could pull off the signings of Matsuzaka/Burnett/Millwood I would trade Pineiro in a heartbeat for Thome as long as the Philly’s were paying nearly half of Thome’s contract!!!
Can you imagine:
2006 Rotation
Millwood
AJ Burnett
Matsuzaka
Felix
Meche (or whoever)
2006 Lineup
RF Ichiro
CF Reed
1B Sexson
DH Thome
3B Beltre
LF Ibanez
SS Betancourt
C Johjima/Rivera
2B Lopez
34, if Beltre isn’t in the 3 hole next year I’m going to go postal.
Some will say that “the M’s would NEVER spend that and sign all three of those players”. Many were saying last year that the M’s wouldn’t be able to sign even one top FA guy out there. Everyone was shocked about the Sexson signing…AND THEN just 2 days later inked a HUGE deal for Beltre. Fans were all on cloud nine, especially considering what Bavasi stated right after the Beltre signing…”they weren’t done yet, and they had still money to go after a frontline starter”. Then we were hearing strong rumors of them pursuing Odalis Perez for 3yrs for around $25M, and Pavano for $10M/yr. Well, Odalis resigned a nice contract with LAD, and Pavano didn’t want to go anywhere besides the NYY, so we didn’t have a chance at Pavano…despite him visiting Safeco field.
AND despite the shock of both Sexson & Beltre getting signed, the M’s “still” came in nearly $20M under their 2005 payroll budget!Hopefully they’ll take the $17-20M savings from 2005 and apply it to the posting fee for Matsuzaka…that’s the ONLY right thing to do for us fans. The fact is though, that they have ton’s of money in reserves for situations like this!
And during the Winter Mtgs last year Chuck Armstrong personally was interviewed by MLB.Radio and stated that they “refuse” to have a year like 2004 be repeated. Then the huge splash of the Sexson/Beltre signings.
Well guess what, 2004 WAS repeated, and they are even more desperate than they were prior to the Sexson/Beltre signings! With A LOT more incentive this offseason!
I really wouldn’t change much in our bullpen, it’s been totally outstanding. Our defense has been one of the best in MLB too! The problem in 2005 was our rotation & the need of one more power LHB!
#34: “IF†the M’s could pull off the signings of Matsuzaka/Burnett/Millwood I would trade Pineiro in a heartbeat for Thome as long as the Philly’s were paying nearly half of Thome’s contract!!!
Stay away from Thome. Thome will be 36 next season.
Let’s do a little exercise. We’ll find every player in the history of baseball who hit 40 or more HR in at least two of their ages 31, 32, or 33 seasons. That will give you a population of players who exhibited similar power as Thome in similar stages of their careers. There are eight guys (besides Thome) who fit that criteria – that’s how unique Thome has been as a hitter. The eight guys: Ruth, Barry Bonds, Killebrew, Sosa, Buhner, Howard, Greg Vaughan, Willie Mays.
Now let’s see how many of those guys hit 30 or more HRs in any season after age 35. The answer – three. Barry Bonds, Sammy Sosa, and Babe Ruth. None of the other guys did it. In all cases except Bonds and Ruth their HR production goes down a pretty steep slope after age 34. You can see the details here: HR after age 31. I plotted HR, but the picture with OPS isn’t much different.
Now I don’t think Thome is in the same class as Ruth. And I don’t think it’s a good idea to lump him with Sosa and Bonds. So I think the prognosis for him at this point in his career is not good at all. In fact, I would attach STAY AWAY to Thome in the biggest, boldest letters I could find. He’s not worth it with almost any amount of salary contribution from Philly.
Nice to hear from you again Garry.
I still think that you are way way out in left field. But it is nice to see that you are still thinking up crazy trades.
FWIW, when Ichiro was posted, the high bid was sent to Orix with no team name attached:
The Toronto Star, Nov. 9, 2000:
To ensure the secrecy and integrity of the bidding process, the amount of the highest offer will be sent to the Orix management without the name of the team that made it. Orix will have four business days – until next Tuesday – to decide whether to accept or reject the bid.
#34: Chacon is a FA, but no doubt the Yanks will get him resigned!
Chacon is listed as having 3.14 years of service time in http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com, and he is arb-eligible. So yes, there’s no doubt the Yankees have him if they want him.
It brings a smile to my face that Jerry is the voice of reason in this thread.
Extra cash this offseason:
Next year’s payments from ESPN to MLB will be $273M, up from $200M. On top of that, the Nationals are expected to be sold for $450M. Those deals will add about $12-$15M to each team’s available cash depending on the press reports you read.
Also, don’t forget from ESPN.Insider: “Increased MLB Revenues: the new MLB/XM Satellite Radio deal which resulted in a payout of approximately $4 million to each franchise.”
Now, I’m not saying there is a conspiracy, but Japan’s traditional economic system is a buddy system — companies proping each other up; I scratch your back, you scatch mine. It follows the same line as their politics. So, although I’m not promoting any conspiracy I would not doubt if the guys (Seibu management and Nintendo management) have gone out drinking, talking about what (MLB) team would be best for Mats and how he might be able to get on that team. And this is not corruption, nor illegal, but just the culture of business. They having a saying in Japan: corrupt politicians make the best politicians. Anyway, I hope they do get him and they get him the most non-distracting way — meaning no scandal latter.
Sorry, later not latter.
Garry,
The Mariners have had a long-standing business “rule” that profit/loss does not carry over to the next year. They set a budget and operate at that budget.
Count on about a $25M/yr investment. I would be extatic to see a power bat and 2 quality arms, but there will have to be a trade involved to make that work at the $25M/yr number.
But, hey, it’s the offseason and it’s fun to dream. That’s the beauty of the game.
I live in Japan and have always been impressed with Matsuzaka’s stuff. But the overwork he has expereinced since his high school days make him an arm injury waiting for the knife. And free agency basically doesn’t exist here. Think the early 60s and you have the idea of the relationship between management and the players. Players are under contract for nine years, and they are available for free agency.
By the way, Bobby Valentine’s team will face the Hanshin Tigers for the Japanese series.
“Can someone please explain why the Seibu FO has to be “convinced†of Matsuzaka’s worth before agreeing to post him? Does Seibu risk losing him to another Japanese team if he isn’t claimed by an MLB team?”
It means that Seibu is saying they don’t want Matsuzaka to go to the majors. Seibu without Matsuzaka is a big loss. Matsuzaka is Seibu’s star player and pitcher, they will not post him early so MLB teams will have to wait for him to acquire free agency.
Seibu will never allow another team to acquire Matsuzaka. Along with Nishiguchi, Seibu’s pitching staff is pretty strong and Seibu management will not break that apart.
“The Japanese free agent system is far more club-favorable.”
That where your mistaken, the Japanese free-agent system serves only the Yomiuri Giants and puppet owner Tsuneo Watanabe. Watanabe got Hiroki Kukubo of the Daiei Hawks for no one in a trade(imagine the outrage if that happened in the majors?).
“JP — I am no expert on the Japanese leagues, by any stretch, but it is my understanding that the team controls his rights for an even longer stretch of time than MLB teams control their players, and a Japanese player cannot become a true “free agent†until they have played something like 7-8 years (and by reciprocal agreement, MLB honors that rule).”
A NPB player has to spend 9 years, 150 days on the top team(ichi-gun) to acquire free agency, this is the same thing with foreign players like Tuffy Rhodes who became a Japanese players after playing 9 years in the NPB acquiring his free agency rights and is eligible to serve in the JBPBA(Japanese Baseball Player’s Union).
“So, he can ask to be posted, but the cost-benefit analysis for Seibu is whether they are better off with the posting fee, or Matsuzaka for another year (or several).”
Exactly, Seibu is better off with Matsuzaka by far which many here don’t get. Seibu management isn’t going to post Matszuaka anytime after they went to the Nippon Series in 2004, and went to the playoffs again in 2005 by finishing 3rd in the PL(Pacific League).
“If anything, they will be trading a starter. They need help at CF and in their pen. That is where their money will be spent.”
I’m not so sure of that, there was a report in the New York Times that said the Yankees were interested in Matsuzaka too if he was posted.
http://www.japanball.com/news.phtml?id=5290
“but their comments make them seem like an awful bunch of people no one would want to play for”
The reason they said that is they want to keep Matsuzaka and it wasn’t meant to be a comment to criticize Matsuzaka. The quote is being taken out of context here.
That where your mistaken, the Japanese free-agent system serves only the Yomiuri Giants and puppet owner Tsuneo Watanabe. Watanabe got Hiroki Kukubo of the Daiei Hawks for no one in a trade(imagine the outrage if that happened in the majors?).
No.
The comment refers to the amount and length of control a team has over a player. The Japanese system, as noted elsewhere in this thread, grants teams much longer control over a player than does MLB.
Now, whether free agency is dominated by one team or not is outside the question.
Argument: “The Japanese free agent system is far more club-favorable.â€
Response: “That where your mistaken, the Japanese free-agent system serves only the Yomiuri Giants and puppet owner Tsuneo Watanabe.”
Which logical fallacy is this? That’s right, the red herring!
[And Derek's right about the substance of the comment, of course.]
RE #45,
I totally agree with you. I think that $25 is about what the M’s should have to work with. It could be a little more or a little less depending on what they decide to do with Meche, Guardado, Franklin, and a few others. This should become more clear in a few weeks.
The M’s are going to need to be pretty shrewd in order to turn this team around for that much, but it is not at all impossible.
That is the reason that I like Matsuzaka. Because a big chunk of the cost of getting him is in the posting fee, and the M’s have not typically counted these expenditures against their payroll, it will allow them to get a lot out of whatever salary he does get.
I think that $8 million is a very safe bet for what it would actually cost the M’s in payroll for Matsuzaka in 2006. $7 million is probably more realistic, especially if the deal is backloaded a bit.
I think that the M’s need pitching more than anything else. Adding a lefty bat will be a lot easier through trade, especially since there are no real interesting free agents that fit with the M’s.
Thus, the M’s could add Burnett (even if they overpay, he is not likely to cost them more than 12 million in 2005) plus Matsuzaka, and still have a few million left over to spend in other areas.
I am sure that Dave or someone else will say that this is unreasonable, but why? The math works fine, unless the M’s cut the spending or you believe Finnigan’s spin on the M’s payroll limitations. Since Bavasi’s head is on the chopping block, and the M’s are dangerously close to alienating a fanbase that has supported the team more than expected given their record, I don’t see a payroll cut. Just my impression, though.
I think that the M’s can really come out ahead in 2006 if they bring in a cheap young player in LF. Even if that player is not an elite prospect or real sure thing, it is worth trying out. I don’t like the idea of investing in someone like Brian Giles or Jacque Jones for 2-3 years. Giles is too old, and Jones would help worsen one of the M’s biggest problems (OBP).
I still think that the Nationals are a great trade partner. They should try to trade for Brad Wilkerson. I think that Mateo, Ascrubal Cabrera, and another lesser prospect could get it done. If not, they could try to trade for Ryan Church or Termel Sledge. Both would be cheap.
If they could get Sledge or Church, then they might even have enough cash to squeeze in Kenji Jojima.
The whole reason why Matsuzaka is such a good fit is because, in adding him, the M’s can still throw down a lot of money elsewhere. Burnett and Matsuzaka would be the best thing that the M’s can do for themselves. If they are shrewd in their other moves, this can be pulled off.
As icing on the cake, the M’s wouldn’t even have to give up draft picks for Matsuzaka.
“The Japanese system as noted elsewhere in this thread, grants teams much longer control over a player than does MLB.”
I’m well aware of the 9 year FA rule, but remember the Yomiuri Giants and Tsuneo Watanabe are as anyone in the know in the NPB(ad hominem)will get what they want. Yes, granted this is starting to break down with the merger of Orix-Kintestu last year, but most people here forget or don’t understand that Tsuneo Watanabe is a major power in the NPB, due to the lack of knowledge about NPB.
“Which logical fallacy is this? That’s right the red herring!”
What it explains is why NPB free agency is what it is, and why free agency is the way it is so much because of Tsuneo Watanabe.
Also, I feel insulted here that you would attempt to use a analogy “red herring” to describe my arguement as I am one of the biggest contributors to Japanese Baseball.com and very active there. Your comment is insulting and in a way very disgraceful. I feel that I shouldn’t be referred to into a “red herring” comment because I attempted to describe the FA system and Tsuneo Watanabe.
I seriously feel like my comments are well justified and well thought and not what you call a “red herring” arguement” as I was cited in the New Years address for Japanese Baseball, and also cited for being active in answering numerous of the daily questions there.
All in all, I have no wish to discuss this no more as I have been convinced that I be referred to in a hostile manner for my comment.
http://www.japanesebaseball.com/forum/thread.jsp?forum=1&thread=5889
http://www.japanesebaseball.com/forum/thread.jsp?forum=31&thread=12819#45000
Also, I feel insulted here that you would attempt to use a analogy “red herring†to describe my arguement as I am one of the biggest contributors to Japanese Baseball.com and very active there.
It’s not insulting, it’s just a description. We were discussing the nature of team control on players. Arguing that free agency (which wasn’t what we were talking about) favors one team was beside the point.
Your comment is insulting and in a way very disgraceful.
While I’m sorry you feel that way, Jeff’s comment was neither.
I feel that I shouldn’t be referred to into a “red herring†comment because I attempted to describe the FA system and Tsuneo Watanabe.
But that’s a description of what happened — you jumped from something else to arguing something outside the conversation. It’s neither good or bad that it’s a red herring. There’s nothing personal there.
I seriously feel like my comments are well justified and well thought and not what you call a “red herring†arguement†as I was cited in the New Years address for Japanese Baseball, and also cited for being active in answering numerous of the daily questions there.
See, this is another jump in logic. Whether or not your comment was a jump from what was being discussed and was, as Jeff says, a red herring, has nothing to do with your contributions to another internet site, or answering questions in forums. While it does certainly speak to your interest in the matter and possibly your giving nature, I should then say that Jeff’s the nicest guy you’ll ever chance to meet, and meant nothing personal in applying a label to what happened.
I hope that you can calmly re-consider this, and see that there’s no personal attack anywhere here, implied or overt.
Despite my previous comment not to discuss this no more, I will again.
First off being called a “red herring” is one thing I’m not used to being called, which is mainly why I was so put off by it. Second, off with me I have a major problem with going on and on about a subject like I have here. I’m on the meanhand find Japanese baseball more interesting than Major League Baseball. So, like you said in the last post the posts here on Japanese baseball is what sparks my interest.
I finally will finish this off by saying that I like this site and don’t mean any ill will, just that I go on and on at times and like to discuss Japanese baseball when it brought up. As I think this site is a great well-put together site.
As a Giants fan, I’m hoping the big money gets thrown at Matsuzaka, while the Giants can scoop up Koji Uehara on the cheap. Matsuzaka >>>>> Uehara, but still….