First off being called a “red herring” is one thing I’m not used to being called, which is mainly why I was so put off by it. Second, off with me I have a major problem with going on and on about a subject like I have here. I’m on the meanhand find Japanese baseball more interesting than Major League Baseball. So, like you said in the last post the posts here on Japanese baseball is what sparks my interest.

I finally will finish this off by saying that I like this site and don’t mean any ill will, just that I go on and on at times and like to discuss Japanese baseball when it brought up. As I think this site is a great well-put together site.

It’s not insulting, it’s just a description. We were discussing the nature of team control on players. Arguing that free agency (which wasn’t what we were talking about) favors one team was beside the point.

Your comment is insulting and in a way very disgraceful.

While I’m sorry you feel that way, Jeff’s comment was neither.

I feel that I shouldn’t be referred to into a “red herring” comment because I attempted to describe the FA system and Tsuneo Watanabe.

But that’s a description of what happened — you jumped from something else to arguing something outside the conversation. It’s neither good or bad that it’s a red herring. There’s nothing personal there.

I seriously feel like my comments are well justified and well thought and not what you call a “red herring” arguement” as I was cited in the New Years address for Japanese Baseball, and also cited for being active in answering numerous of the daily questions there.

See, this is another jump in logic. Whether or not your comment was a jump from what was being discussed and was, as Jeff says, a red herring, has nothing to do with your contributions to another internet site, or answering questions in forums. While it does certainly speak to your interest in the matter and possibly your giving nature, I should then say that Jeff’s the nicest guy you’ll ever chance to meet, and meant nothing personal in applying a label to what happened.

I hope that you can calmly re-consider this, and see that there’s no personal attack anywhere here, implied or overt.

I’m well aware of the 9 year FA rule, but remember the Yomiuri Giants and Tsuneo Watanabe are as anyone in the know in the NPB(ad hominem)will get what they want. Yes, granted this is starting to break down with the merger of Orix-Kintestu last year, but most people here forget or don’t understand that Tsuneo Watanabe is a major power in the NPB, due to the lack of knowledge about NPB.

“Which logical fallacy is this? That’s right the red herring!”

What it explains is why NPB free agency is what it is, and why free agency is the way it is so much because of Tsuneo Watanabe.

Also, I feel insulted here that you would attempt to use a analogy “red herring” to describe my arguement as I am one of the biggest contributors to Japanese Baseball.com and very active there. Your comment is insulting and in a way very disgraceful. I feel that I shouldn’t be referred to into a “red herring” comment because I attempted to describe the FA system and Tsuneo Watanabe.

I seriously feel like my comments are well justified and well thought and not what you call a “red herring” arguement” as I was cited in the New Years address for Japanese Baseball, and also cited for being active in answering numerous of the daily questions there.

All in all, I have no wish to discuss this no more as I have been convinced that I be referred to in a hostile manner for my comment.

http://www.japanesebaseball.com/forum/thread.jsp?forum=1&thread=5889
http://www.japanesebaseball.com/forum/thread.jsp?forum=31&thread=12819#45000

I totally agree with you. I think that $25 is about what the M’s should have to work with. It could be a little more or a little less depending on what they decide to do with Meche, Guardado, Franklin, and a few others. This should become more clear in a few weeks.

The M’s are going to need to be pretty shrewd in order to turn this team around for that much, but it is not at all impossible.

That is the reason that I like Matsuzaka. Because a big chunk of the cost of getting him is in the posting fee, and the M’s have not typically counted these expenditures against their payroll, it will allow them to get a lot out of whatever salary he does get.

I think that $8 million is a very safe bet for what it would actually cost the M’s in payroll for Matsuzaka in 2006. $7 million is probably more realistic, especially if the deal is backloaded a bit.

I think that the M’s need pitching more than anything else. Adding a lefty bat will be a lot easier through trade, especially since there are no real interesting free agents that fit with the M’s.

Thus, the M’s could add Burnett (even if they overpay, he is not likely to cost them more than 12 million in 2005) plus Matsuzaka, and still have a few million left over to spend in other areas.

I am sure that Dave or someone else will say that this is unreasonable, but why? The math works fine, unless the M’s cut the spending or you believe Finnigan’s spin on the M’s payroll limitations. Since Bavasi’s head is on the chopping block, and the M’s are dangerously close to alienating a fanbase that has supported the team more than expected given their record, I don’t see a payroll cut. Just my impression, though.

I think that the M’s can really come out ahead in 2006 if they bring in a cheap young player in LF. Even if that player is not an elite prospect or real sure thing, it is worth trying out. I don’t like the idea of investing in someone like Brian Giles or Jacque Jones for 2-3 years. Giles is too old, and Jones would help worsen one of the M’s biggest problems (OBP).

I still think that the Nationals are a great trade partner. They should try to trade for Brad Wilkerson. I think that Mateo, Ascrubal Cabrera, and another lesser prospect could get it done. If not, they could try to trade for Ryan Church or Termel Sledge. Both would be cheap.

If they could get Sledge or Church, then they might even have enough cash to squeeze in Kenji Jojima.

The whole reason why Matsuzaka is such a good fit is because, in adding him, the M’s can still throw down a lot of money elsewhere. Burnett and Matsuzaka would be the best thing that the M’s can do for themselves. If they are shrewd in their other moves, this can be pulled off.

As icing on the cake, the M’s wouldn’t even have to give up draft picks for Matsuzaka.

Response: “That where your mistaken, the Japanese free-agent system serves only the Yomiuri Giants and puppet owner Tsuneo Watanabe.”

Which logical fallacy is this? That’s right, the red herring!

[And Derek's right about the substance of the comment, of course.]

No.

The comment refers to the amount and length of control a team has over a player. The Japanese system, as noted elsewhere in this thread, grants teams much longer control over a player than does MLB.

Now, whether free agency is dominated by one team or not is outside the question.

It means that Seibu is saying they don’t want Matsuzaka to go to the majors. Seibu without Matsuzaka is a big loss. Matsuzaka is Seibu’s star player and pitcher, they will not post him early so MLB teams will have to wait for him to acquire free agency.

Seibu will never allow another team to acquire Matsuzaka. Along with Nishiguchi, Seibu’s pitching staff is pretty strong and Seibu management will not break that apart.

“The Japanese free agent system is far more club-favorable.”

That where your mistaken, the Japanese free-agent system serves only the Yomiuri Giants and puppet owner Tsuneo Watanabe. Watanabe got Hiroki Kukubo of the Daiei Hawks for no one in a trade(imagine the outrage if that happened in the majors?).

“JP — I am no expert on the Japanese leagues, by any stretch, but it is my understanding that the team controls his rights for an even longer stretch of time than MLB teams control their players, and a Japanese player cannot become a true “free agent” until they have played something like 7-8 years (and by reciprocal agreement, MLB honors that rule).”

A NPB player has to spend 9 years, 150 days on the top team(ichi-gun) to acquire free agency, this is the same thing with foreign players like Tuffy Rhodes who became a Japanese players after playing 9 years in the NPB acquiring his free agency rights and is eligible to serve in the JBPBA(Japanese Baseball Player’s Union).

“So, he can ask to be posted, but the cost-benefit analysis for Seibu is whether they are better off with the posting fee, or Matsuzaka for another year (or several).”

Exactly, Seibu is better off with Matsuzaka by far which many here don’t get. Seibu management isn’t going to post Matszuaka anytime after they went to the Nippon Series in 2004, and went to the playoffs again in 2005 by finishing 3rd in the PL(Pacific League).

“If anything, they will be trading a starter. They need help at CF and in their pen. That is where their money will be spent.”

I’m not so sure of that, there was a report in the New York Times that said the Yankees were interested in Matsuzaka too if he was posted.

http://www.japanball.com/news.phtml?id=5290

“but their comments make them seem like an awful bunch of people no one would want to play for”

The reason they said that is they want to keep Matsuzaka and it wasn’t meant to be a comment to criticize Matsuzaka. The quote is being taken out of context here.

The Mariners have had a long-standing business “rule” that profit/loss does not carry over to the next year. They set a budget and operate at that budget.

Count on about a $25M/yr investment. I would be extatic to see a power bat and 2 quality arms, but there will have to be a trade involved to make that work at the $25M/yr number.

But, hey, it’s the offseason and it’s fun to dream. That’s the beauty of the game.