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Adam Jones
Baseball America profiles Adam Jones conversion to center field in today’s AFL notebook.
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101 Responses to “Adam Jones”
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Twittah
How does the scout’s prospect rating of the arm work? Isn’t 70 pretty near the top (if not the best?)
Kid sounds like a player. Looking forwards to his emergence in a few years.
Scouts work on a 20-80 (or sometimes you’ll hear 2-8) scale. Major League average is rated as a 50. Scouts almost never give out an 80 rating. Felix’s fastball, for instance, on most scouting reports this year, was a 75. So, yes, 70 is darn near the best you can get rated.
This kid sounds promising. What it really sounds like though is that Jeremy Reed is not being looked at as a long term solution for the M’s, which makes the Freddy deal all the more frustrating…..
Is Jones likely to start the year at Tacoma, or back in AA San Antonio for a probable mid-year promotion?
I have to assume his defensive position change will keep him in AA for a bit longer than he would have?
Jones was moved to CF because its the position where he’s most likely to achieve success at the major league level, not because Jeremy Reed didn’t live up to expectations. There’s also that Betancourt kid who probably has SS locked up for the next few years, so moving Jones was the right choice. We’ve been talking about it openly for two years now, even before the team acquired Reed.
He’s probably going to begin the year in Double-A. If he had torched the AFL, maybe Triple-A would have been a possibility, but it’s unlikely.
I think Reed will be no better than average at his position offensively, even going into his prime, and is probably going to be sub-par defensively. Adam Jones should be good defensively, and probably a good offense too. Betancourt should become an average offense, and possibly a little above average (correct me if you don’t think this) by the time he reaches his prime, and is spectacular defensively. As well, Lopez should become a good offensive 2B as he enters his prime. I think Reed would make a nifty 4th outfielder come 2007 if need be. Doubt he’d like it though.
Have you seen Reed’s defensive stats? They’re outstanding by any measure.
You guys are going to force me to do a “Jeremy Reed does not suck” post, aren’t you?
Seriously, I’m amazed how quickly fans will go from one extreme to another on a player. Last year, Reed was the Next Big Thing. Now, he’s Darren Bragg.
Seriously, I’m amazed how quickly fans will go from one extreme to another on a player. Last year, Reed was the Next Big Thing. Now, he’s Darren Bragg.
Well, between last year and this year Reed did hit .254/.322/.352
Not exactly awe-inspiring.
No, it wasn’t. But if one years performance is enough to radically change your opinion of a player, then your opinion wasn’t based on enough evidence to begin with.
How quickly someone flip-flops on a position tells you an awful lot about how seriously you should take that persons opinion.
I think Reed will be better offensively next year than last. A change of hitting coach could help him too, but I doubt he’ll ever hit above .280 or 15-20 HRs. He’s got some solid doubles power, and hopefully be a decent base stealer, of course, he’ll have to raise that .322 OBP to make a difference there. He’s probably destined to be a 7 or 8 hitter for quite a while, even in our medeocre lineup.
However, he’s worth keeping around at his cheap salary just based on his defensive abilities. He’s better than I thought he would be, I heard a lot of people say he would project as a left fielder, but goddamn he chased down a lot of balls in CF.
He IS only 24, but showed he simply cannot hit lefties and barely holds his own vs. righties. His job is probably safe for now just based on the fact that we have other, bigger holes to fill. He’s a good stop-gap until, hopefully Jones can emerge as a star.
I can understand being dissapointed in Reed’s offensive production this year, but to think that he is “probably going to be sub-par defensively” is really confusing. i think it is his defense that kept him in the line-up all year, if he does end up sub par, get ready for the full time Willy era in centerfield.
I believe many soured on Reed simply because he was a part of a great sucking sound coming out of Seattle for much of the season. Sucky by association.
Had Reed come up in a year when Ichiro! was his normal superhuman self, Beltre was doing as we all know he can do and when the SS/S/C didn’t account for automatic outs, Reed would have been given a B for his rookie year. Reed had a nice rookie season and I think he has a nice career coming. They can’t all be Vlad or Manny or Matsui. I’ll tell you what, I’d take Reed’s year at his salary over Beltran’s season at his salary.
OK, Derek, I’ll eat the crow. I didn’t even look. I know that’s not a good thing to do here. I’ll hold judgement, he is young.
Russ: I think that you are spot on with your post. If Reed has an average bat and spectacular defense in a winning M’s season, I don’t think that it’s an issue at all. Reed’s problem is his first full year as an M didn’t include any real offensive output, on a team that was soft offensively and only won 67 games.
BP shows Reed as 2 runs BELOW average for the season in CF. Did one of you hint a while back at doing a post on Reed’s defense? IIRC, a year ago the take on Reed was he was a poor CF and likely would need to move to left. Now the take is he’s way above average in CF.
I’ve read that Reed had some damage in one of his wrists. Doesn’t that greatly sap a player’s power? Is this a lingering injury, one that may have already bitten into Reed’s potential? Or, conversely, with this injury treated, could we see a breakout next year?
I’m a big Reed fan and really don’t want to think of the Freddy deal as a mistake (it was about the only thing that excited me in 2004), but with Olivo gone, Morse a role player and Reed struggling, I’m a bit worried. With our current lack of pitching and the prospect of a player with Garcia’s ability–not to say it is that great–likely to cost more than what we could have signed Garcia for, good news about Reed would help assuage my dread.
Maybe a Reed doesn’t suck post would be a good idea.
My take on Reed before was that he was going to be stretched at CF, and would look really bad in comparison to past CFers. But really, by any reasonable statistical measure, he looks at worst like he’s average.
Of all the “advanced” defensive metrics out there, BP’s are the least reliable.
I think Reed would be an ideal LF if he hit for power. I think we’re running into a situation with the Mariners where we don’t have a lot of areas to improve without losing something as well. For instance, to get a better CF, we have to move Reed. If we put Reed in LF, we’re losing the opportunity to put a masher there. Still, I think Reed would be an outstanding defensive LF, but the drawback is we have one less place to put a power hitter.
So, how about that Adam Jones, huh?
#20: That’s not a terrible problem to have. A surplus of talent is never a bad thing. Find the right deal to complement. Or, if Reed doesn’t grow any more, then make him a fourth outfielder at a reasonable price.
It looks to me like Jones has more upside than Reed, but with greater risk. Reed’s already proven that he can hit major league pitching, and has some room for improvement. Jones is still in AA.
However, Jones made the move from high-A to AA without missing a beat with the bat. His offensive statistics are virtually identical between the two leagues. That’s promising. He’s twenty. That makes it even better.
Woo, Adam Jones!
Jeremy Reed doesn’t suck.
I look forward to getting to see Adam Jones play a little closer to home! Like Tacoma. Or Seattle.
What’s with all the angst about the Freddy trade? It’s done. If it turns out to be a bust then what’s the big deal? When you trade a star for 2 top prospects and a young major league ready player, you’re rolling the dice. People don’t go up to the craps table expecting to hit 7 every time.
If we were getting 1, 2 or 3 surefire stars in that trade, Chicago never would have made the trade. It all comes down to risk and reward. I don’t fault management for making that trade, even if the players we traded for don’t work out in the end.
Adam Jones and Jeremy Reed may make a great centerfield platoon someday. And that might not be such a bad thing. Conceivably, having two solid centerfielders is a handy thing to have, especially if that left-handed sock we’re trying to get has some defensive liabilities in left field and gets subbed for at the end of each game.
Rusty:
1) Agreed. It was a good trade.
2) That’s why I bet Don’t Pass.
#25: Part of the angst may be Kazmir Envy. (”Look at what the D-Rays got for Victor Zambrano! Why couldn’t we get a stud for Freddy?”) Part of it may be, “Why didn’t we give Freddy his money?” I’ve probably stretched our hosts’ hospitality along this line in another thread, so I’ll go no farther here.
Hey, does anyone think Ichiro’d make a good centerfielder?
That’s about as helpful as asking if we’ll go after David Wells now that he’s requested a trade to a west coast team.
Which I actually did in another thread, so I’m hardly one to cast aspersions.
They’re not great, but since I couldn’t get access to either UZR (no longer done), PMR for 2005, or individual numbers for RANGE, I looked at RF and ZR. Among ALL MLB CFers, Jeremy Reed had the highest RF and ZR and by a decent margin as well.
#30, correct, as well as well above average Fielding WS. That’s why I agreed to eat crow on my statemeent. I’ve gone over this years offensive stats and pitching fairly thoroughly, but not too much defensive stats. i just don’t have time to run numbers like i used to.
6- can someone please give me a reason to think betancourt will ever hit? the league averages for ss this year were .276/.331/.412. betancourt hit .256/.296/.370 as a mariner. his obp settled at right about .285 after initial fluctuations. in aaa as a 23 year old, he hit .295/.323/.443. granted, these are all small sample sizes, but a .323 obp in aaa does not instill confidence. and the small sample size issue is why i keep wondering what the basis is for assuming that betancourt will hit. somebody give me something, are there cuban league stats somewhere that instill this confidence? if so, he would have to have an obp there of about .450 to project as an average offensive al ss. ive asked this question before and received no answers, maybe because i have to place it in only vaguely related threads. can we have a betancourt thread? is anyone else unconvinced by him so far?
No one thinks that Betancourt will be an impact bat. His defense is otherwordly, which will cover for his bat.
That being said, he hadn’t played organized baseball for a year prior to beginning his time in the Mariners’ organization. Dave’s estimate of his offensive upside put him somewhere around .280/.320/.400, which I think is pretty reasonable. If he can play amazing defense at SS and hit at that level, he’s a really valuable player.
but would he be more valuable than adam jones as a ss, despite the questionable defense? it just seems risky to me to settle for a player who projects at best as a league average offensive player at ss over someone who projects as much better than that, unless jones simply cannot play ss. jeter averaged -20 fraa with the glove for years, but was routinely one of the top 3 ss in the league because of his bat. so the bar for not being able to play the position is pretty low, because of the potential to make up enormous amounts of ground at a historically weak offensive position. the same can be said of mike piazza in his prime. unless betancourt is the equivalent of ozzie smith or bill mazeroski defensively, the mariners look like they will be giving away runs from the ss position for the next 4 years with this strategy. that said, with limited data his defensive metrics at the major league level this year were not great. (-4 fraa as ss and a 4.38 rf, thats all i have access to. anyone have advanced metrics for his time at aa and aaa?)
unless betancourt is the equivalent of ozzie smith or bill mazeroski defensively
The words, “once in a generation shortstop” keep getting thrown around, so perhaps that’s the thinking.
Also: By leaving Betancourt at SS and moving Jones to CF, you potentially fill two positions. Suppose you leave Jones at SS because of his bat, while admitting his glove isn’t as good. Now what do you do with Betancourt? His glove would be wasted elsewhere, and SS is really the only position where you can afford to carry that sort of bat. In other words, shortstop is the *only* place Betancourt can be a contributor, while Jones should hit enough to play elsewhere.
#32, how about the fact that he’s 23? I doubt he’ll ever be MORE then league average SS, but I see no reason why he wont be around average by the time he enters his prime. I guess you could argue the same for Reed, who could easily be above average offense CF by 27 or so. Also Safeco is something that should be taken into account for ALL of our players.
35- youre assuming that betancourt is worth keeping around in the first place, which may be the case, but maybe it isnt. personally, i would look to trade him while the perception of his potential value is high. but even if you did keep him, he could theoretically play 2nd (weaker offensive position than ss in the al) if something went wrong with lopez, or be a utility player. (i know, it would be hard to part with bloomquist, but it would be necesaary.) and as far as prizing potentialy average offensive players, i think thats a foolish strategy unless you have either an incredible starting pitching staff (houston, oakland, maybe the white sox) or 3 position players who are well above average (nyy, boston, st louis) and the mariners have niether of those things. just because average is an improvement over most of the position players the mariners have doesnt mean that that should be where they aim.
YT, would you mind using paragraphs and capital letters in the future?
By most indications, Jones is a liability playing SS. Think Michael Morse.
By who’s measure? How did Jeter rank in the top 3 ss? By the media?
It’s not a binary choice of playing Betancourt or Jones. Also they wouldn’t be “giving away runs” unless Betancourt’s defense + offense contribution was below replacement level, which is nowhere close to being a reality.
You forgot the caveat that said players have insane defensive abilities. They’re not just pursuing average players. A league average offensive SS with +30 FRAR is worth just as much as a league average defensive SS with +30 BRAR.
Did you notice that the 3 teams you listed were 4th, 1st and 2nd in defensive efficiency? Great defense breeds good pitching staffs. For more evidence see the 2000-2002 Seattle Mariners.
Ichiro, Sexson, Beltre.
Case Study: Jack Wilson
Offensive line: .257/.299/.363, barely above replacement level on offense. However, he was +38 RAR in the field. The result: 4.6 WARP
Contrast to: Felipe Lopez
Offensive line: .291/.352/.486 nearly +40 RAR with the bat. However, just +5 RAR in the field leads to a 4.9 WARP
662 OPS vs. 838 and the difference was 3/10 of 1 win over 162 games. If Betancourt turns into Jack Wilson circa 2003-2005, I’d take it everytime.
Re: Reed and A. Jones, Dave you know my thinking on Reed and the reasons why so I won’t reiterate here. However, I _do_ think that your approach to XBH% as a predictor is sound overall and applies directly to most other players. Adam Jones, for instance. His jump in XBH% in his Age 20 season is very promising, and I expect his power numbers to climb further in time as you’ve indicated as well in your consequent re-evaluation of him earlier this season. BP’s write-up suggests he’s taking well to CF, and that’s all to the good.
Re: Betancourt, two years ago, he was playing in Cuba against low A ball level equivalents. Last year, he sat. This year when he played, he swung at everything; I mean _everything_ (take a look at his walk totals). Big league pitchers take advantage of a guy with no strikezone discipline, and so YB’s numbers took a dive when he was called up. The Ms worked consistently in September to get him to take more pitches, and he did show some, I say some, amenability to take to that approach. Overall, he’s had very little time in pro ball to refine his batting skills, so his growth curve is going to show as retarded relative to his age—but that doesn’t mean it won’t curve. He’s not going to put many balls in the seats. However, he hits a strike with authority, is a lickety-split runner, and had a man’s full share of doubles and triples in AA and AAA. A line of .280/.320/.400 is, to me, the _floor_ for his possibilities as a hitter, IF he learns a reasonable measure of strikezone discipline. Personally, I think he’ll slug a bit more than that. . . . That’s not to say that his ‘05 season may be a struggle offensively since he’s going to have to refine his hitting at the major league level. Betancourt can hit and hit pretty well, but he’s still extremely raw. By the end of ‘05, there will be now doubt regarding his outstanding, outstanding defense; the guy’s a freak. He’s often compared to Vizquel, and that seems like the best model, but his arm is better.
Compare Betancourt to Reed, who has fairly advance skills at the plate, but rarely hits anything with authority. I think YuBet has a great chance to be a better hitter than Reed overall, if with a significantly lower OBP, he’s never going to be great there.
1. Doesn’t Reed’s 2B total indicate some authoritive ball striking?
2. I agree that people are likely underestimating Betancourt’s ISO potential. However, I think .280/.320 as a floor is overly optimistic. I would be pleased if Betancourt ended up as a .280/.320/.400 hitter. My expectations are for him to peak around that line. Next year, I expect to see him basically replicate his 05 numbers plus about 10 points.
Back to the top of the thread… does anyone have any knowledge of how the 20-80 scouting scale evolved? As someone who works with a mean of 100 and a standard deviation of 15 all day, I’m intrigued by a more interesting-sounding rating scale!
I just want to know why it’s 20-80 as opposed to 0-60. Don’t make much never you mind no matter how I look at it…
Dave, how well do you think Jones is going to hit? Is he going to be a 30-homer guy? Will he get his OBP over .360 consistently? I’m excited about him, but I don’t know what reasonable expectations are.
39- jeter has averaged 8.65 warp3 in all years since 1998, excluding 2003, in which he missed considerable time. i dont have time to run the numbers on every shortstop and i dont have access to comparable historical stats like that, but i think you would be hard pressed to find more than 2 other shortstops during that span who have been more valuable. like it or not, he is a hall of fame player and one of the most valuable shortstops in history. as far as the choice at shortstop i should have mentioned that i think the mariners should explore signing rafael furcal or julio lugo (if possible), but i mentioned it in another thread and forgot to here.
40- as far as the insane defensive ability goes, im not saying he does not have that ability, im just curious as to why it hasnt been displayed statistically yet and thats why i wondered if more advanced statistics for his minors work was available. beltre is not well above average offensively by any stretch of the imagination. in fact, his 15.1 runs of vorp were 8th in league by 3b. hopefully he will be, but even if he proves to be i would expect a steady but modest decline from ichiro and a steep decline from sexson soon. when i say well above average, i mean 3 players who can reasonably be expected to produce around 60 runs of vorp or more a year.
41- thats good research. but in a league with jeter, tejada, young, peralta, and crosby i dont think i would take jack wilson happily. you can even throw julio lugo in there, and upton is on his way as well. the nl is a much easier place to field a good glove no hit shortstop than the al these days. how about pokey reese as a comparable player to betancourt but hopefully without the injuries? an nl team could make due with that, im not sure if an al team that is weak offensively at almost every position can. if jose lopez busts out and becomes something like a .275/.350/.500 hitter at 2b and clement is in seattle raking in a similar manner in 2007, then that deficiency could be made up for. but i would be more comfortable with a shortstop who can hit and not relying so much on those ifs.
YT.
You really ought to go and acquaint yourself with capital letters. You are in danger of becoming JC.
Also, you are ignoring the argument that a penny saved is a penny earned. If Betancourt is worth +30 FRAR, that’s just as good as a defensively poor SS with a +30BRAR bat.
Innit?
Some fun with WARP3:
In 1999, Pokey Reese put up a .285/.330/.417 line, and had a WARP3 of 8.0. Jeter’s had a WARP3 of 11.0 in his peak season (also ‘99). That year, he hit .349/.438/.552.
The following are a few of Jeter’s full season results, complete with his batting line and WARP3:
‘98: .324/.384/.481, 9.1
‘00: .339/.416/.481, 7.8
‘01: .311/.377/.480, 6.9
‘02: .324/.393/.450, 6.9
‘04: .292/.352/.471, 8.2
‘05: .309/.389/.450, 10.7
Mixed in there are some damn fine offensive years where the combined metric shows Reese’s ‘99 as being more valuable.
If a defensive wizard at short can put up thoroughly mediocre offensive stats and be worth slightly more than a guy who hits .339/.416/.481, I think we can be pretty sure that great SS defense is pretty valuable. I don’t know anywhere near enough about WARP3 to judge it as a metric for relative value, but if that’s what we’re looking at, it seems to think SS defense is important.
48- all of the players i listed are in the range of 7+ wins a year- for betancourt to be that good he would have to be 50-60 frar a year, and i dont see that as realistic. he might be a 5 win player if his defense is as good as advertised. thats 2 wins lost at ss per year compared to almost half of the teams in the league. among those teams are many of the teams the mariners have to overcome to make the playoffs. how many wins a year is the team likely to lose to those teams comparitvely in lf, cf, c, and 3b? assuming 2b to be average, what is the gain in wins against the teams the mariners have to be better than to make the playoffs (if any) at the strongest positions the mariners field- dh, 1b, and rf? does it come anywhere near making up for those deficiencies elsewhere? what i am saying is that there are too many holes on this roster to settle for average at best anywhere on the field from here on out, but especially at shortstop in the american league. i would much rather take a 7-9 win player even for a considerable amount of money. im not trying to change any of your minds here, i would just like some concrete reason to believe that betancourt is not pokey reese or jack wilson at best. if that is what he is, then what does the team do to make up for that other than wait and hope?
50- reese was a 2b in 1999, which maginified his already considerable defensive value. the point is well taken, but he would not have rated at 29 fraa if pitted against the shortstops of the league rather than the second basemen. i personally would be more comfortable with betancourt as a second baseman.
Why did you start from 98? He was a regular in 96. And he still played 120 games in 2003. Over his last 10 seasons, he’s average ~7.67 WARP3. Yeah, that’s good. But Tejada, A-Rod, Garciaparra when healthy were all better. Jeter is a good SS, and is top 3 now since Garciaparra left and A-Rod’s at 3B, but he was at best 4th in the heyday. Splitting hairs though.
I’m sure you can look up the WARP3 for those players. At best, if you think Rafael and Julio continue their 05 performance, you’re getting ~8 WARP. That’s less than 4 WARP higher than you’ll get from Betancourt if he just puts up Jack Wilson 05 numbers (which is what Yuni did in 06 albeit in less time). Is 4 WARP worth what it’ll cost to sign Furcal? Who would you rather have Jeff Weaver and Betancourt or Ryan Franklin and Rafael Furcal?
Short answer: small sample size and bad metrics.
Longer answer: It does show up in the better metrics. His 4.4 ZR is around top 10 for MLB. Also notice that his ratings at 2B are indeed “otherwordly”. I would expect his SS numbers in 06 to match his 2B numbers in 05.
highly unlikely to get that sort of data out of the minors.
You didn’t specificy that it had to be offensive only. Both Beltre and Ichiro are suberp defenders. Also Beltre did have what most consider his absolute floor offensively. I’d like to hear reasons why you expect Ichiro to decline from his 05 numbers and why you see a steep decline from Sexson. I don’t see either given their past 5 seasons and their comparables.
If you consider “well above average” to be > 60 VORP, you might want to be a little less understated. 23 players total exceeded 60 VORP and no team had 3 players do it. Considering 81 games in SafeCo as well, a more realistic idea is 3 players exceeding 50 VORP. Which is certainly a possibility for the 06 Ms.
Have you looked at the teams playing in the World Series? Besides, isn’t it obvious that it’s the rotation which needs attention? We KNOW the rotation sucks. We don’t yet know the longterm value of Lopez, Yuni, Reed. Why give up on them now when we can spend money to fix the glaring holes and see what happens with our younger guys. There’s no way the Ms compete in 06 or 07 without some ifs going the right way.
D’oh! You’re right.
I’ll be honest. I’m not sure how that changes things at all. It seems like the point that good defense + premium position -> high WARP3 still has some merit, but Reese’s ‘99 probably isn’t a good measuring point. Reese’s line is barely below the average NL 2B in 1999, though, so it’s not as much of a tradeoff of offense for defense as I thought it was.
For an actual shortstop comp, check out Ozzie Smith’s 1982. ‘82 was one of Smith’s weaker offensive years. He hit .248/.339/.314, but still had a WARP3 of 7.4.
First off, you listed 5 players. That’s 1/3 of the league. Secondly, Crosby is a 4 WARP player, not a 7+. Young has had 1 season above 7 and only 2 seasons above 4.1.
If you want to look at it as a whole. I would wager that Sexson, Lopez, Yuni, and Beltre extrapolated to a full season at 05 numbers come in around AL average in WARP.
Clarification, when I said “I’m not sure how that changes things…” I was not contending that it didn’t change things. Rather, I was honestly expressing my ignorance over how 2B defense and offense relative to other 2Bs would change Reese’s WARP3 for that season.
Southpaw: Isn’t VORP park-adjusted?
55- i was extrapolating crosby out as a healthy player, which is admittedly fuzzy, and also accommodating for the fact that he has only played in the bigs 2 years. im also using warp3 and not warp1, which may account for some of the differences you note. i would expect young to continue as a 7-8 win player for a few years despite his horrible glove, i dont think that that is unreasonable.
56- his fielding was rated as disproportionately high because he was a shortstop playing second base, being compared mostly to second basemen playing second base. if he played short, he still would have been great defensively, but not as great because he would be compared to the rest of the best infielders in baseball, the shortstops. i dont know what the difference would be, but i know there would be one, maybe 1 win at most.
56- also, it would be awesome is betancourt could post an obp near .340, like ozzie, but thats what ive been asking- is there evidence to suggest that he can do that? if he did it would be outstanding because i dont think he could slug .314 in the process, he would be closer to .400. however, obp is the most important thing and my major concern with him.
Looking strictly at Betancourt relative to AL shortstops is looking at the trees and not seeing the forest. It’s a useful exercise but it doesn’t mean much unless you place it in the context of the entire team.
i was extrapolating crosby out as a healthy player, which is admittedly fuzzy, and also accommodating for the fact that he has only played in the bigs 2 years.
I find it interesting that you’re accomodating crosby (lowercase) for future development but you’ve ruled out any significant future improvement for Yubet.
#59, answer this question, Garry Templeton or Ozzie Smith? If you do a little research I think you will understand what I am getting at.
As Batgirl would say:
I have a total non-sexual man crush on Betancourt!
I’m even getting cable this next year in place of listen to the game. (actually, TV on mute with the Radio) Watching Betancourt and Felix are the main reason for that.
I plan on going to about 15 games next year. I hope to see lots of ground ball hits to Betencourt, just so maybe I can see one amazing play.
Sure I would like to see him hit and walk more. But then I would like to see EVERYONE on the M’s hit and walk more. I could even stand to watch Willie Boom-Boom Bloomquist hit some more.
………….
anyways,
On Reed.
This time next year Reed (baring injury) IMHO, be better. He will be better because the rest of the line up should improve. He will be better because he will no longer be a rookie and just be another player. He will be better because he’s knowledge of the pitchers improve.
I’m sure most of those statements been stated already.
And really folks, after the teams gets some changes at pitching, LF, C, and bench, then the FO will look more at the other weak spots.
Seriously, YT, capital letters and paragraphs. Trying to read your posts is the online equivalent of having a conversation with someone who has halitosis. You want to hear what they’re saying, but you just can’t get past the annoyance.
Captial letters and paragraphs will revolutionize your postings. Just give it a shot.
Reed is Winn reincarnate. Nothing more, nothing less. When Reed hits his potential, to find out what he might produce, look at Randy Winn’s stats over the years. I would be OK with that, with a big IF the M’s can’t find someone better (ie-Jones in a few years).
A Randy Winn who (unlike Winn) plays an above average centerfield is a very valuable player.
Reed’s a better defensive CF than Winn. I don’t know his minor-league number well enough to project his bat, but he’s already a better defender than Winn.
If you look at Randy Winn’s first 800 AB’s in the majors, by the way, they don’t exactly blow Jeremy Reed’s first season away.
And signing Furcal when the rotation right now is Felix, Piñeiro, Meche, ? and ?…not so much convinced.
EP, the thing about comparing him to Randy Winn is that we *already had* Randy Winn. We had that guy and traded him because it wasn’t what we needed. I think that if Jeremy Reed turns out to be another Randy Winn, then we got boned. Sure having a Randy Winn is good, but when you’ve already got one, why trade for another?
Smegmalalicious, Reed makes 10% of what Winn made, plays Centerfield and Winn seemed to be expendable at the time of the trade due to Snelling comming up.
At a WAY cheaper price, with a decline MUCH further in the future? Sounds like a good reason to make a trade to me….
I’m not saying it’s not a good deal to get him cheaper and younger, I’m saying that it’s kind of a sideways move. It doesn’t really make the ballclub any better.
Let’s get this straight. You think that the club is no better for having traded a 30-year-old Randy Winn for a 23-year-old “Randy Winn clone”, Jesse Foppert, Yorvit Torrealba, and saving themselves about $4 million in cash?
And that’s only true if you accept that Winn is Reed’s upside, which I don’t.
I thought they traded Garcia for Reed, not Winn. I thought they got an ok value for Winn, and filled a hole (catcher) that badly needed filling in the short term. I also thought it was the right move to get rid of Garcia when we did, and the fact that we got several good prospects for a guy who was out the door anyway was awesome.
The point I’m trying to make is that moves that trade us for a younger version of what we have aren’t the kinds of moves that are really going to help us. Sure saving the cash and basically getting a younger Randy Winn is a good deal, but we need to do more than that to make the club better. Of course if they apply the $4 mil we’re saving in that direction then it helps. I’m only saying that we didn’t improve in that position.
The way things stand, the Mariners seem to be stuck in a place where they have to lose something to gain something. To get better in CF, we have to either move or trade a guy with some good upside. We have good talent in a lot of places and great (or outstanding) talent in few places. Part of what I see as the problem (and this isn’t a terrible problem) is that we have lots of *good* guys, but too few standouts.
I may not be articulating this well, but what I’m trying to get across is the sense that we’ve got lots of Raul Ibanez’s, Jeremy Reeds, Yorvit Torrealba’s and to get better we have not only have to find someone better than those guys, but trade guys like that to get them.
Maybe I’m not making any sense. I dunno. Maybe I’m full of shit. Does that make any sense to you guys?
Having a lineup full of Randy Winns is about 35 WARP which gets you close to 90 wins. I think you are underestimating how good Winn was. We traded him because he was expendable at that point, not because we didn’t want him around.
Your criticisms would have been valid two years ago, when we were going after the Pat Gillick regime for the roster construction methodology that demanded paying millions to mid-level players and not pursuing any elite talent. The roster has been almost entirely overhauled since then, however, and now, I just don’t agree with your opinion of the roster.
The M’s didn’t lose in 2005 because of a lack of stars. They lost because they gave a thousand at-bats to guys like Olivo, Valdez, and Boone.
And southpaw’s totally right. I find it humerous that people are using “he’s another Randy Winn” as an insult. A team with the equivalent of Randy Winn at all 9 positions is a playoff contender.
Yeah, you’re right. I’m just being paranoid. I guess the main thing that sitcks with me is the lack of power in our outfield. We really seem to get our only power from Beltre, Sexson and Ibanez. I know we don’t need to have a ton of mashers to win, but it would be nice to have a little more power threat. More guys that make the opposing pitchers worry. Of course, if all our guys aer hitting .300 like Winn was, that’s a worry all its own. Thanks for allaying some of my fears.
I’ve read variations on this several times in this blog, and I’m willing to believe it, but I’d still like to know why. I’ve never seen it explained.
Jones as a CFer gives the M’s depth at the position that can be leveraged as trade. Think: Jones for Ryan Howard – straight up. Howard as a DH moves Ibanez into LF – and our OF power shortage is resolved.
LOL.
Dave, what are your expectations for Adam Jones offensively?
Olivo, Boone, and Valdez were all gone by the Break—and the Ms continued to stink for the rest of the year. I’m not blind to the fact that Doyle, Betancourt, Lopez, and Felix came up, I’m talking about the rest of the lot; all those drag-it-in-the-dirt road trips. September, where the Ms got manhandled by the rest of the division, one isolated series notwithstanding. Blaming the the Ms lost season on the three folks named doesn’t get it done, there are many other folks who were, and are, part of the problem rather than the solution.
The discussion focusing on those three names (and Winn etc before that) was strictly on the offensive side of the equation. The craptastic roatation, except for the addition of Felix plus Moyer as long as he wasn’t getting on a plane, remained a problem. Give the kids a full year, add a decent starter or two, plus that elusive “left hand sock”, and you have a much different season.
can someone please give me a reason to think betancourt will ever hit?
He’s had far less experience hitting MLB (or MLB-in-training) pitching than anyone else on the team? He had a rather hellish experience just getting here? He’s only now getting an opportunity to work with professional strength-and-conditioning coaches, modern equipment, and excellent nutrition? And despite all that, he made a major league roster and managed to hit .250?
Oh yeah, and he’s only 23?
A few years ago I went to a couple of ballgames in Havana and I visited several cuban homes. I wouldn’t claim to know what Betancourt’s life has been like so far, but if what I saw is representative of where he came from I would think he’s got more potential for growth than your typical 23-year-old coming out of college or a few years in the minors.
Look at it this way: he’s David Eckstein with better hands, feet, and a stronger arm. He might also have more upside with the bat; but even if he doesn’t, he’s better than Eckstein. And yet Eckstein seemed like a good deal to the Cards as a FA pickup. If the M’s had some bats elsewhere in the lineup, nobody would be worried about Betancourt’s production because of all the runs he saves. And how much better a deal, money-wise, is he vs a guy who went to the Allstar game and played for a team that went to the NLCS?
And yet Eckstein seemed like a good deal to the Cards as a FA pickup.
To be fair, Eckstein was the last FA SS without a dance partner when the band started to play. And if what I’ve seen on TV lately is any indication, the NL is a fraud.
But as to your larger point, yes, Betancourt is a good guy to have in your infield. It’s just a pity for the M’s that you can only bat one guy 9th.
Yteimlad, why are you taking a player’s first year numbers as all he can do? It’s not like every good player just plays to his career norms from the get-go. Players can improve. Betancourt is still only 23 and hadn’t played in some time before this year. He has still room for improvement and it’s not like his minor league numbers were atrocious to begin with.
Dave, what are your expectations for Adam Jones offensively?
Upside: Torii Hunter
Reasonable Expectation: Jeffrey Hammonds
Basically, .260/.330/.450 with a chance to be a bit better than that. I don’t think he’s ever going to be more than a league average hitter, but if his defense in center is good enough, he could be a valuable player.
#76: A team with the equivalent of Randy Winn at all 9 positions is a playoff contender.
Not to mention, a team that Pat Gillick would love!
So, Dave, your expectations for Jones are about the same as for Reed, offensively? And about the same defensively? They’re just going to peak at different times, if I’m reading that right.
If that’s the case, then it looks like you can trade Reed right about when his value has peaked and move on to Jones. Or platoon them in center. Or, if you had Lou’s conception of a bench, use one in CF full time and the other to spot start LF, CF and RF and rotate days off.
That’s a lot of value the team can squeeze out of Jones.
I wouldn’t say my expectations are the same, but I think their potential values are probably close. Jones is certainly a much more high-risk prospect than Reed, however. I think Reed, in his prime, can hit .300/.370/.460, or something like that, which is significantly more valuable with the bat than what I project for Jones. I think Jones has a chance to be a better defensive player, which will even out some of the difference.
If given a choice between Reed and Jones, I’d take Reed. I certainly wouldn’t be looking to trade Reed to open up a spot for Jones.
88: Not to mention exceedingly inexpensive. It’s a playoff contending team with a replacement level pitching staff. You could build that team for ~50M.
#91, I doubt a team full of Randy Winns would be contenders with replacement level pitching.
Jim Street just noticed Adam Jones in the outfield….
.300/.370/.460? Wow. That’s a high upside. Plus, I’ve been hearing big positives about Reed’s defense. And that’s what I find curious about that entry, Dave. Reed’s been getting huge reviews for his D, and the metrics back it up. Is Jones that capable of a defender? Because there’s noises about Jeremy Reed as a gold glover.
That’s All-Star level production right there. I was hoping for league average from Reed. In which case I understand why you wouldn’t trade Reed to open up room for Jones.
Is Jones’ future in the majors as a fourth outfielder?
I hope you’re right. (Well, I wouldn’t mind if they exceed your expectations by considerable margins, but hey, let’s try and stay within the realm of the reasonable.)
The jury is still out on Reed’s glove, for me. I know the metrics we have give him big scores for ‘05, but I’m not totally convinced that’s not Safeco. I’m doing work on this, and hopefully I can do a defense-at-Safeco post at some point soon.
92. I’m having trouble finding it now, but I recall hearing the definition of a “replacement level team”, one that wins 53 games. So if you add 9 Randy Winns to that (36 WARP), you get 89 games. That’s a playoff team in the NL this season.
Dave, while SafeCo may be having an effect (some study did show SafeCo to be easier on defenders), do you agree that even adjusted, Reed’s 05 will still end up rating among the top CFers? Considering the margin he has above 2nd in RF and ZR I think he would stay in the top 5 after adjustment.
The thinking is that Safeco elevates defensive metrics because it puts more balls in play? Or that a lot of those majestic, moon-shot homers turn into lazy fly balls? Those are reasonable hypotheses.
Hm. So that seems to imply that Jones’ bat will carry him in CF, with excellent defense, and that Reed at his peak will be able to hit well enough to hold down LF, with awesome defense. (ala… uh, Randy Winn.)
The lowside of this is that Reed continues to hit well enough to carry him as a CF, and he’s adequate out there, and Jones turns into a fourth outfielder.
The upside, of course, is that Reed turns into Mike Cameron, hoovering up balls wherever he goes with a top OBP. (Maybe without Cameron’s power), and Jones turns into Torii Hunter, who’s an asset to any team. (Top flight defense, power, maybe not so much OBP.)
It sounds like Clement and Jones are both likely to be ready in ‘07. The future looks bright, if the M’s can find some starting pitching.
#96, thanks. That makes sense. I was basing replacement level as someone well below league average in RA. I used Randy Winns Safeco #’s to create a team of Randy Winns and found it won about 90 games on a team of league average pitchers, not replacement level. But your point of using WARP makes sense.
How does Reed’s 2005 season stack up with Mike Cameron’s previous seasons?
I would think that would be a good indicator of Reed, using all the defensive stats.
The metrics we have say that Reed was good, but not Cameron-esque in center. The same metrics that love Reed, by the way, thought Randy Winn in center was pretty solid as well.
#97– I find it hard to believe anybody could somehow turn into Cameron…