Meet Kenji Jojima
Word around the campfire heralds that the Mariners are pursuing Kenji Jojima, a standout Japanese catcher.
For those of you unfamiliar with the player nicknamed “Joe,” here’s a quick introduction. (And yes, that means the Mariners might well end up with a tandem of JoeJessica and JoeJima.)
For the past three years, Jojima’s offensive numbers have been excellent. In 2005, he cracked the Pacific League’s top ten in just about every important category, including on-base percentage, slugging, total bases, batting average and even triples. His rate statistics are impressive, especially 2004, which may have been his career year:
YEAR AVG OBP SLG 2003 .330 .399 .593 2004 .338 .432 .655 2005 .309 .381 .557
Behind the plate, he has a solid defensive reputation, a good arm and has stayed relatively injury-free (though he did suffer a broken shinbone this year). Jojima speaks very little English, but has worked with American pitchers in Japan without any particular problems. He turns 30 in June.
For background, here’s a Japan Times profile on Jojima from a few years ago, and a more recent story that focuses on his defense.
Other teams have scouted Jojima as well, but — spooked by the Kaz Matsui signing — the Mets have said they are not interested.
There are two or three things that would concern me about him for the Mariners. You could say pretty safely that plate discipline played a key role in his productive 2003-2005 seasons (.399, .432 and .381 OBP respectively). But his strike zone judgment has been very spotty before that — his career high in OBP before 2003 was .377, and in 1998 and 2002 he put up out-machine type on-base numbers (.309 and .305, ouch!).
It seems like he’s learned to control the strike zone as his career has progressed. At least, one hopes so.
I also worry about how his power numbers are going to translate. Hideki Matsui is the success story here, but Jojima’s lifetime numbers (while good) are not Hideki-like, and there are enough instances of players leaving their slugging percentage at customs that I’d be concerned. He’s a righthanded hitter, too, and coming to a large park life Safeco might hurt him.
Want a scary comparison? Compare Jojima’s career to Norihiro Nakamura’s. These are their lifetime numbers:
AVG OBP SLG .267 .366 .506 .298 .358 .513
Pretty close, though Jojima hits for more average. He’s also three years younger, so he has that going for him, but they’re both players that hit for power and had up-and-down plate discipline in Japan. Nakamura took his righthanded bat to a big American ballyard, and, well, you know what happened. There is also the curse that the Mariners appear to have on the catching position to consider.
On the other hand, his numbers also compare (favorably) to Tadahito Iguchi‘s. Iguchi had several mediocre years before two superb ones, and Iguchi has produced in the states.
Given that Nakamura got a minor league contract, I can’t imagine Jojima will cost the M’s a lot of money, which makes it a low-risk, moderate-to-high reward move in my eyes if that’s the case. Even the $2.3 million base salary the White Sox paid for Iguchi doesn’t seem out of bounds. The potential payoff will likely justify taking a chance.
Just from the numbers, I’d say his upside is probably a player like Ben Molina has been for the past few years (though Jojima can run a little bit), with his downside being a Nakamura-style disaster. Yes, that’s a wide variance of expected performance. But considering the feast-or-famine nature of Japanese stars coming to the states, it’s best to temper expectations.
That way, you’ll be pleasantly surprised.
Minor transactions: Ojeda gone
From MLB.com: “Outrighted INF Justin Leone to Triple-A Tacoma and announced C Miguel Ojeda was claimed on waivers by the Colorado Rockies.”
Not that Ojeda’s any great shakes, but… they gave him up for the trivial payment of a waiver claim? I’m a little surprised.
Null phrases used to pad a broadcast
Collected through the 2005 season:
As far as [x] is concerned
As we said
At this moment
Game [x] of a [y] game series
[I/we/you] can’t stress enough that
[I’m going to/I’ll] tell you what
It’s one of those things
Let me tell you something
No question about it
No doubt about it
One of the things you’ll [see/notice]
One thing I’ll tell you
Right now
That’s a case where
The thing about that is
They always say
Think about that
You could say [this/that]
You talk about
We always talk about
Fun fact of the day
Reader Evan Rodwell submitted this cool bit:
—
B-R lists 28 offensive stats for each team, and shows the team leader in those stats.
Of Seattle’s 28, 26 are lead by Ichiro or Sexson (13 each).
Ichiro’s categories:
Batting Average
Games
At Bats
Runs
Hits
Triples
Stolen Bases
Singles
Times on Base
Sac Flies
IBB
Power/Speed Number
AB/K
Richie’s categories:
OBP
SLG
OPS
Total Bases
Doubles
Home Runs
RBI
Walks
Strikeouts
OPS+
Runs Created
XBH
GIDP
The only other two categories? HBP (Morse) and Sacrifice Hits (Winn).
Hargrove denies Stottlemyre rumors
Make of this what you will.
Seattle manager Mike Hargrove said Tuesday the Mariners are not currently considering the resident of suburban Issaquah for their vacant pitching coach job.
“We haven’t talked to Mel and we haven’t talked about Mel. He’s still under contract with the Yankees,” Hargrove said via telephone from his offseason home in the Cleveland area.
Matsuzaka to be posted?
We with our ears to the ground at USS Mariner Labs have been hearing rumors for a few days that Daisuke Matsuzaka would be posted, allowing him to come to the United States. Given that there is a lot of ground between here and Japan, it’s tough to know how reliable our ears have been in gauging things.
Now, Dayn Perry says that he’s available — albeit with no substantiation or specifics.
Also on the market is Daisuke Matsuzaka of Japan. He’s a gyroball specialist whose stuff Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus likens to that of John Smoltz  hard and heavy. He’s certain to be hotly sought by high-revenue teams like the Red Sox and Yankees.
Take this detail-light report with a grain of salt, or perhaps a portion of soy sauce. But combine this with what we’ve been hearing and the fact that the timing is right — Bobby Valentine’s Chiba Lotte Marines just knocked Matsuzaka’s Seibu Lions out of the playoffs — and I’d say that the rumor stands a good chance of proving true.
Why post on this topic so much right now, while we’re still speculating? If the report is correct, teams could start the action quickly.
Under the posting system, after the player’s name and status is officially declared to American teams through the commissioner’s office, teams have four days to post their bids for the rights to negotiate with the player. The winning bidder then gets 30 days to negotiate a contract.
A news report doesn’t consitute an official announcement. But if there’s something to this, we could have a lot more to talk about soon.
Mr. Schaden, meet Mr. Freude
Fun exercise: find a Yankee fan, give them your best innocent smile, and ask sweetly “Hey, I missed the game last night: what happened?”
In the remnants of the Bronx Bombers’ season we find two nuggets of interest to Mariner fans. First, Derek notes that the Yanks may be interested in Daisuke Matsuzaka. (My most recent take on Daisuke and the free agent starter market is here).
Second, Mel Stottlemyre is on his way out as New York’s pitching coach, and the Issaquah resident is a possibility to fill the vacancy left by Bryan Price.
Update: from msb in the comments, Corey Brock talks about pitching coach candidates in the TNT without mentioning Stottlemyre. Also, here’s Larry Stone’s take in the Times.
Daisuke Matsuzaka, again
Rumors are starting to bubble again. The New York Times ran a story which speculated the Yankees, who’ve been sent home early again, might pursue him if he’s posted. The Mariners almost certainly would.
We’ve written about him before, including a whole spate of articles at this time last year, when it looked like he might have been posted then.
Matsuzaka pitched on the 8th for the Seibu Lions in the playoffs (against the Chiba Lotte Marines, managed by Bobby Valentine)… going seven innings and throwing 142 pitches.
142. In seven innings.
Which brings up the huge negative about Matsuzaka, even if he’s posted: his workload has been absolutely insane. Maybe he’s one of the few players who can take that kind of abuse and remain effective, but he’s only 25, and he was overworked horribly during years where that kind of abuse most harms pitchers. Teams should be scared.
If he’s posted, it’s going to take a lot of money to get him. He’s undeniably talented, though we can debate what meaningless rotation number label you could put on him. But it’d be like buying an amazingly risky used car:
“How much for this 2005 Boxster of yours?”
“Oh, $55,000.”
“That’s really expensive, but it is nice… how many miles?”
“220,000.”
“Um… wow. You sure drove it a lot. Do you have maintenance records?”
“A what now?”
“Regular service.. oil changes?”
“Phhhbbbllltttt. Every morning I go out, put it in neutral, rev it all the way up a couple times while it’s still cold, peel out, and then drive the rest of the day. If the oil light comes on, I just pour some of that Slick 50 stuff in.”
Millwood vs Burnett
Who is the best pitcher available this winter? For most of the spring and summer, everyone agreed it was A.J. Burnett. However, as the season went on, Kevin Millwood‘s ERA just kept going lower and lower. By the end of the season, he bested Johan Santana for the AL ERA title, and people began to realize how well he had pitched. Combine that with Burnett’s ERA of near 6.00 in September and his publicized ouster from the Marlins, and, well, there’s no longer a consensus on which pitcher is going to be more highly sought after this winter.
Even within the commenters here, there’s no real agreement. Millwood or Burnett, Burnett or Millwood. Back and forth we go. Well, let’s get to the bottom of this. Which one is better?
Control
Controlling the strike zone has never been Burnett’s strength. He walked 9 percent of the batters he faced this year and 8 percent in 2004. His career mark is 10.5 percent.
Millwood is, comparatively, a strike throwing machine. He walked just 6.5 percent of the batters he faced this year. He struggled with his control in 2004, matching Burnett’s 8 percent mark, but that appears to have been an anomoly. His career mark is just over 7 percent.
Burnett can be expected to walk about 20-30 more batters than Millwood given the same number of batters faced over the course of a season. That’s a very significant number. Big edge to Millwood.
Dominance
Burnett’s a classic power pitcher, so this is where he makes up for his occassional wildness. He struck out 8.7 batters per game, fifth best in the National League, totaling 23 percent of the batters he faced. In other words, he racks up a strikeout every four batters. That’s dominance.
Millwood is no slouch here either, though. His 7.0 strikeouts per game looks vastly inferior, but he didn’t get to face the opposing pitchers. His mark, 18 percent of the batters he faced, was good for 8th best in the American League. His 2004 season in Philadelphia, he struck out 20 percent of the batters he faced.
Burnett’s certainly the more dominant strikeout pitcher. He’s one of the elite strikeout arms in the game. But Millwood isn’t chopped liver here either. Edge to Burnett, but not an earthshattering one.
Contact Type
A.J. Burnett was a dominant groundball pitcher this year, posting a 2.42 G/F rate (by ESPN’s calculations). The Hardball Times has him as the fifth biggest groundballer in the National League. He was in the same class as guys like Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder, notorious groundball machines. However, this was a substantial leap for Burnett. He’d never been anything close to this before. In 2004, his G/F rate was 1.49, and his career mark is 1.42. Burnett saw a 40 percent increase over his previous career best in G/F rate. None of the other dominant groundball pitchers in baseball have ever had seasons where there G/F rates were as low as Burnett’s have historically been. If he can continue his groundball dominance going forward, he’ll be historically unique. At this point, there’s not anywhere near enough evidence to suggest that this was a legitimate improvement on Burnett’s part; the best guess on the information we have is that it was likely a career year, one that probably won’t be repeated.
Millwood also saw a significant bump in his G/F rate this season, though that one is far easier to explain. His career G/F rate is 1.01, and he’s been a flyball pitcher his whole career. His mark this year, however, is 1.39. According to a recent study done by Dave Studeman found, Jacobs Field is the most groundball prone park in baseball, inflating groundballs by around 11 percent. It’s not a big surprise that Millwood saw a big boost in his G/F rate in the one season he’s spent in the Jake.
Safeco Field, ironically, plays as one of the most flyball oriented parks in baseball, so any pitcher coming into Safeco should be expected to see his G/F rate decline, at least marginally. Projecting anything over a 1.5 G/F rate for Burnett in Safeco would be folly; Millwood probably projects right around the 1.0-1.2 mark he’d estabilshed as his career norm. Burnett’s certainly the better bet if you want groundballs, but he’s a very poor bet to retain his elite groundball status in future years.
Durability
Burnett has thrown 854 innings over 7 major league seasons. He had Tommy John surgery in 2003. He also experienced arm problems in the minors and had to miss a few starts this season with various health issues. His mechanics are mediocre, and he has a fairly violent delivery.
Millwood has thrown 1,600 innings over 9 major league seasons. He missed a significant part of the 2001 season in Atlanta with a shoulder injury, but never had surgery. He’s also had minor back and groin problems that have kept him out of starts the past several seasons, but he’s made 30+ starts in 3 of the past four seasons. His mechanics are clean and he has a smooth, easy delivery. As far as pitchers go, Millwood’s basically as little of an injury risk as you’re going to find. He’s an innings eater and has proven quite durable.
If you want to make sure you’re big ticket pitcher investment takes the hill frequently the next few years, Millwood is your guy.
Performance
A.J. Burnett posted a 3.45 ERA this year in one of the most pitcher friendly parks in the National League. His career record is 49-50. His ERA the past four years is almost a full run higher away from the friendly confines of Pro Player Park.
Kevin Millwood posted a 2.86 ERA in a neutral park in the American League. His career ERA is lower despite pitching in significantly less friendly environments. He has 107 wins against 75 losses.
No brainer, right? Millwod by a mile.
Not so fast. Burnett’s Fielding Independant ERA this season was 3.09 vs 3.77 for Millwood. Even after adjusting for league factors, Burnett’s FIP is significantly better. His mark was 27 percent better than the NL average; Millwood’s just 13 percent better than the average AL pitcher. The main difference in their amount of runs allowed this season was in their strand rate. Millwood allowed just 21 percent of the runners he put on to score, while Burnett allowed 32 percent of his runners to cross home plate. There’s little evidence to suggest this is a repeatable skill, and the gap will almost certainly close next year. If you even up the strand rates for both pitchers, Burnett’s overall numbers are actually better than Millwood’s this year.
Millwood’s 2005 performance was a lot more valuable to his team than Burnett’s was. But we don’t care about that. We’re looking forward, and Burnett’s 2005 performance projects better in the future than Millwood’s does. Millwood has the longer track record, but Burnett’s more recent track record is better. We’ll call this a push.
For the last few months, I was on the Millwood bandwagon. However, down the stretch, he got a significant amount of help from his defense, and his late season push to the ERA crown eliminated whatever chance he had of being undervalued. There’s no way Kevin Millwood is a value buy as a free agent anymore. If you want him, you’re paying top dollar for him, because the market for him is going to be very strong.
The market for Burnett is still strong, though he’s not the undisputed number one arm on the market anymore. And that will hurt him. The teams looking for pitching aren’t going all out for Burnett. They have viable backup plans in place, lessening the risk of one team blowing everyone else out of the water. That’s why the 5 years, $65 million speculation that creeped up over the weekend isn’t like to materialize.
At this point, I see no clear advantage to pursuing either pitcher in lieu of the other. Neither one will be a bargain. They’re going to be the two most expensive free agents to sign this offseason, and their price tags will be similar.
What’s the best course of action for the M’s, then? Pursue both. The M’s did a nice job covering their bases last offseason in their pursuit of two hitters, pitting Sexson and Delgado against each other for one position and using the leverage to make sure they got one of the two. It’s time for round two. Don’t pick between them; let them fight for the M’s. Make similar offers to both pitchers and the first one to sign gets it.
Kevin Millwood or A.J. Burnett? What’s the right answer?
How about “yes please”?
Purges begin
Ed Wade is out in Philly. In the short term, I expect a rise in Ryan Howard rumors.
In Baltimore, Jim Beattie’s not going to return. He was as close to a GM as the team’s had in years. Mike Flanagan might be next.
This comes only a couple days after the Devil Rays finally firing Chuck LaMar, who by any reasonable standard did an awful job in Tampa, and the Rangers got a new GM as well.
Who’s next?