Today’s insane market news
DMZ · November 30, 2005 at 11:46 am · Filed Under General baseball
Konerko stays with the White Sox with a 5 year, $60m deal. This is crazy. And some of the stories floating around would have you believe that there was a 6 year deal from another team on the table.
Also, some reliever guy got some huge contract.
If Konerko gets 5/60, Giles… well, he’s not going to be a Mariner, folks.
Update! Giles re-signs with San Diego, reportedly for 3 years at $30 million. Compared even to Konerko’s deal, that’s low. Wow.
Comments
137 Responses to “Today’s insane market news”
#79
Dave–are DT’s just an inferior fielding metric, or is the issue looking at just one evaluation of fielding? If DT’s are truly inferior, what goes into the other metrics that makes them superior measures of ability?
In my opinion, Chris W has it right.
I’d trade Sexson in a heartbeat For The Right Return.
Why would you want to decide absolutely that you wouldn’t trade someone without knowing what it is you’d be getting back? That’s just limiting your own options.
Yes, this applies to Felix, Ichiro and anyone else I adore… remembering that the rerturn has to be BETTER than what we give up.
The only valid argument for not trade someone without knowing the return is sort of a finesse argument… people that you know aren’t in a postion to get good value back, I believe, it’s fair to talk in general about not trading them… and even then, the trade market can surprise so it’s better not to argue in absolutes.
With Sexson specifically, there are good reasons why trading him for the right return wouldn’t hurt as much as trading some others… he has an easier to replace skill set, etc.
I love Sexson and he was great for us last year… but someone offers a great starting pitcher for him and I’ll drive him to the airport myself.
Chris W:
I absolutely agree with your general point. I just disagree, in the specific case of Sexson, with whether you’d get enough back for him to justify the big hole he’d leave you with in the lineup.
Sell high on either Ibanez or Guardado? Absolutely. They’re easier to replace with existing talent or a reasonably priced alternative option. Sexson, I just don’t see how you replace him without paying a huge premium in a market where everything is so overvalued.
Just perusing ESPN’s recent trades section and it showed M. Cameron was going to make around $7mil for the upcoming final year in a three year deal he signed with the Mets.
I love the guy and his D but back two years ago, I was gagging and thinking it was good the lvls didn’t sign him to that deal.
My oh my how times have changed. I wouldn’t mind good old Cammy in Center with Reed in LF for 2006! That’s even with all the K’s Cammy would take in late innings of close games considering.
FWIW, the 06 lvls can only be better with the shedding of excess bad players such as the 7 catchers, Boone and the others who I can’t recall off hand (that’s how I maintained my sanity).
Go lvls!!!!!
ESPN is reporting that Giles has signed with San Diego. Don’t know any details. One more lefty gone.
3 years 30 million for Giles on ESPN.com
Which mean J.P. wasn’t kidding about the report of 5 year/55 mil. was way off. Looks like the Jays will concentrate on A.J. Burnett now.
At this point I just dont see the Mariners taking any action in this round of FA. Maybe at the winter meetings they will spin a decent trade or something?
Link for Giles deal: http://www.signonsandiego.com/sports/padres/20051130-1907-gilesdeal.html
“Giles, who will turn 35 before the start of the 2006 season, will make $9 million each of the next three seasons. Plus, the club holds an option for the 2009 season at another $9 million against a $3 million buyout.”
That’s just ridiculous you’d pay a 35 year old slugger who probably will be on the decline in the next couple of years $9 million a year.
That’s just absolute lunacy.
Meanwhile, I think what you’ll see is the M’s probably not just signing big-name free agents in the offseason.
It will be a mix of a whole bunch of different stuff.
You’ll probably get an average LH power hitter, a top-tier starting pitcher, Moyer at a hometown discount, and a trade for another starting pitcher.
The free agents including Moyer go to $20 mil. and some trades will be made.
I honestly think you will see the Mariners get back into the free agent ring very soon with $20 million to spend, probably by Christmas you’ll see some Mariners signings of some kind. They are just plotting their next move for the moment.
I will tell you this though, if Bavasi proves that he doesn’t know how to spend $20 million on Free agents, which is absolutely rare in HowardLand, then there is no way he deserves to be GM of this team, or any team for that matter.
Actually, I’d bet the Giles deal goes down as one of the best of the offseason.
9 million for Giles is a bargain, especially when it’s about the exact length you’d want it too.
I don’t see Giles declining too much in 3 years. Anything beyond that, those 4 and 5 year contract rumors, I was shaking my head. Giles went for about the price that I expected, and at 3 years is a quality signing.
Although, I’m kind of glad the M’s didn’t dump a lot of money into that, when we need pitching so bad. Gotta wonder if Bavasi can rock the winter meetings as well as he did last year when he got Sexson and Beltre out of them.
I’m just surprised that Giles was so set on staying in San Diego, seeing how much that park is on his hitting. Kudos to the Padres for securing the (genuine) home-town discount and getting that deal done.
rrg, I meant how BAD that park is on his hitting. Can’t think straight.
This off-season is whacked so it seems to make sense to just target one primary starter (Burnett or Millwood) and be happy we have a quality catcher. If the off-season boils down to Johjima + Burnett/Millwood + Bigbie (via trade for Torrealba) then I think we’ll survive. Going after contracts for players in such an exaggerated market might feel like another Boone or Cirillo or Sandfrog contract before long.
The team would be on pace for 85 wins and be in a position to trade for a missing part at the deadline in July. This team has plenty of money but not many good choices for spending it this year.
Huh. I’d pay that contract to Giles in a second. Must be a hometown discount, ’cause I’m sure a lot of teams would take Giles at 9 per. He’s going to be making less than Konerko while being all the hitter and more than people think Konerko is but isn’t.
This means Toronto’s going to have to get bats through trades.
Anyone who has bats to move should probably pay attention.
I hear Bob at Bob’s Bat Bonanza has billions of bats begging to be bought.
So much for the ‘crazy market’. Giles may not be Superman, but he should certainly have gone for much more than that. His projected decline rate would definitely have warranted more cash, or another year if the price was right.
I wonder if this will actually depress some of the pricing on what bats remain in the market? Probably not the pitching, but the rest of the field stands a good chance of being affected. Since most of them don’t matter to the M’s in the slightest, it will only be of academic value… but does anyone still think Jacque Jones is going to get 4 years from anyone but the Royals?
Re: Frank Thomas, he’ll wind up somewhere. Probably with the freakin’ Yankees or the LA Angels. I’d love to see the Big Hurt in an M’s uniform, but, then again, I was pumped when we got Kevin Mitchell a few years back. Just think, if the Big Hurt becomes the not-so-big Hurt as a Mariner, we can have some classic moments with Evil Rick Rizzs on the play-by-play: “Swing and a miss. Strike three called on the Artist formerly known as Frank Thomas… but then again, I look way too much like Neil Diamond.”
The new Neil Diamond record is actually very good, as is the Giles deal for the Padres. Haven’t anything from the Rick Rizzs record, though Neil’s record was produced by Rick Rubin.
I think Frank Thomas is jinxed. I can’t back it up with too many stats, other than the number of pennants and WS Chi won with him and without him. Hard to give someone that big a wide berth, but I’d recommend the M’s give him one you could fit him, Mitch, and Mo Vaughn thru three abreast.
There should be a contest. Which team will sign the most bloated, albatross-type free agent contract this season?
So far the contestants are many:
BJ RYAN
Billy Wagner
Scott Eyre
Paul Konerko
Brian Giles
Kenji Johjima (just kidding…this was actually a relatively sane contract)
With the ways things are going, Jaimie Moyer should ask for a 5-year contract. Some GM will prolly give it to him.
OK, I am a DIE HARD M’s fan… I LOVE this team, no matter what, win or lose. But….isn’t it time for some reaslism? I entered into this offseason thinking we could solve our problems with 3 solid signings. Assuming $20 Million was what we had available with our payroll, I thought if we could get Burnett ($11 mil per) Jacque Jones ($5) and Byrd/Elarton/Pitcher#3 ($4)…assuming our young guys (Lopez/Betancourt/Reed/Morse) would continue to develop as we hope, we could get back to at least .500 and start to dream once again about division contention. But these early signings are RIDICULOUS! And based on these early commitments, one can only assume that most baseball owners are on crack! So…..where do we go from here? Do we get into a bidding war with the other idiots and start offering $7 million per year for guys like Jones? I think not.
I am a “benefit of the doubt” kind of guy, which is NOT easy. The Mariners whoes simply can NOT be solved though free agency alone. We need to draft well, bank on our young guys to develop into ML quality players, and in the meantime, sprinkle our ML roster with solid, fiscaly responsilbe veterans, with an eye on immediate contention. Baseball is unique, in that CHEMISTRY is more important than in any other sport, and moreso than in any other major sport, a so-called “role player” can blossom into a star if put in the right situation. Therefore…
Let’s face it, this free agent crop is HIGHLY OVERRATED and so-far is on track to be HIGHLY OVERPAID!!!!!! So… I recommend we DON’T give in to the staus quo and start overpaying for underserving “regular” players, and start looking more towards the future of this franchise. We have already signed Johjima and commited $5 of our reported $20 mil in “available” payroll to him for 2006. So…..instead of throwing the rest of what we have left to spend on gambles like A.J. Burnett ($11 Mil/Year?) or Jones ($7 mil?) maybe it’s time to consider some bargains.
How about Scott Elarton or Shawn Estes as a short-term/low-cost alternative to the overpriced Weaver/Millwood/Washburn?? Or instead of overpaying to get a very mediocre offensive producer in Jones, taking the low-cost route of a Travis Lee/Kevin Millar/Todd Hollandsworth/Jermey Burnitz solution at DH? Or even Erubial Durazo, who is very LH, and will be VERY low-cost given the fact he needs to rehabilitate from a rotator cuff tear?
Just some thoughts. I’m open to anything. I just want to see a PLAN and some VISION in what the M’s are doing.
Thoughts?
DV
#97…yes Thomas can mash, can hit for average, can walk….the problem is, its very likely most of his walking will be with a cast on his foot…
Watching the lack of interest in Loaiza by the M’s and now hearing reports that they only offered token interest in Giles, I think Bavasi’s plan is slowly starting to be defined.
I think he plans to address the M’s needs by perhaps signing one new arm and then pulling off a couple trades. Next week should be rivoting for M’s fans. I have no idea what Bavasi plans to do with Moyer though Im guessing Moyer will be back.
Current bargains on the roster:
Eddie G.
R. Sexson
R. Ibanez
J. Reed ( a plug and play guy that instantly upgrades your defense and may develop offensively)
Yorvit the C
Probably most of the bullpen (Soriano especially)
Jojometrics indicate that Meche/Franklin/Thornton likely have very little trade value. Pineiro is a catch 22 guy…probably too expensive for most people to take a chance on (i.e. no trade value) but has too much upside to cut lose given the current lack of bodies in the M’s rotation.
Jojometrics however are at a loss for why Meche cant pull it together.
#120 – I was mega-pumped about Kevin Mitchell too. I remember how that awesome M’s outfield of Jay, Jr, and Mitchell was supposed to hit over 100 homers that year. Then he showed up at that ’92 camp really fat and that was the end of that.
Elarton plain sucks. There’s no reason to sign him for more than 1 year,
“Baseball is unique, in that CHEMISTRY is more important than in any other sport”
This sounds like a “calls a good game” type of claim. Please back this up, because from where I sit, “chemistry” is something to which you attribute success after the fact. If a team was successful, it had “chemistry”. If it wasn’t, it didn’t. And, as I’ve said before, you can’t exactly plan for it in roster construction anyway, unless you just decide to sign “good guys” and hope for the best. We can see where this strategy has gotten the M’s in recent years.
There are plenty of examples of teams where the players reportedly didn’t get along, but won. Give me a few examples of this chemistry you speak of.
I’d argue that baseball requires the least amount of whatever it is. In baseball, each guy is doing his individual job, and isn’t very relieant on teammates. In basketball, it’s all about teamwork, passing, setting picks, rebounding, etc. What you do has a direct impact on the other guys. Look at the 2004-05 Sonics vs the 2005-06 version for a glaring example of chemistry gone wrong.
Huh?
I think that baseball is the sport where “chemistry” has the LEAST importance.
There are clear examples in football (offensive line play, QB/receiver teamwork) and basketball (again, defense, offensive set plays, etc.) where coordination has interaction effects that you can’t derive from individual play alone.
In baseball, it’s the pitcher vs. batter that dominates all. And there are lineup construction efficiencies that have to be considered (to maximize offense and defense simultaneously). But chemistry? I just don’t see it.
Giles’ contract is a steal. I would have gladly paid that for him to be a Mariner.
Konerko is a WARP 4 player who had ONE big year. I don’t think Giles will get back to his WARP 10 level, but he’s WARP 6 or 7 and was better than Konerko last year. Even though he’s five years older, I expect Giles will be better (and paid much less) than Konerko in each of the next two years. Maybe in 2008 when Giles is 37 and Konerko is 32, Konerko will be better.
Does anyone know if the White Sox are raising their payroll significantly? They just added Thome and Konerko at ~$20M next year and the only significant salary cut was Frank Thomas, who I think they still paid $3M NOT to play for them.
#119–“I wonder if this will actually depress some of the pricing on what bats remain in the market?”
no, because everyone can see Giles took fewer years & less money to stay in San Diego, and they will write it off as an exception.
The owners aren’t on crack, their on “profit”. They have the money to toss around and are doing it (especially in Toronto, NY, Baltimore, etc.). As long as they keep raising ticket prices and we keep paying, the teams will have plenty of money to spend like drunken sailors.
Giles is a nice player and given this off season, his contract is probably ok but he wasn’t going to do all that much for Seattle’s needs. He hit 15 homeruns last year and played 11 games in Denver. I think Bavasi would have liked to think he’d get a few more homers for $10 mil. I mean, Ichiro can hit 15 excuse-me-homers and is not considered a “lefthandedbopper” like Bavasi said he was after.
I expect a Millwood/Burnett signing + a trade or two.
No. 132…
To simply call Giles 15-HR hitter, when he’s a pull-hitting lefty in Petco Park, is ridiculous. He’d have hit 25 HRs in Safeco. And I didn’t just make that number up. Check out the percentage of Giles’ extra base hits that were HR compared to anyone else in baseball. Giles is at about 24%. The rest of baseball is at 35-40%… To get to 35-40%, Giles would have had to hit about 10 more HR.
Have you seen a Jays game recently? They haven’t filled SkyDome beyond half-full since 1997.
That said, all that money is newly theirs since they got the government to give them the stadium last winter.
And they’re owned by a media conglomerate…
Ineresting read in this weeks S.I. regarding increased funds to all MLB teams.Apparently 2mil for Satellite radio,10+ mil. for Internet, and an equal split of 450 Mil from the sale of the Expos/Nationals.
All new monies..
The Nationals aren’t sold yet. They may have turned a profit during their DC honeymoon, but they’re still owned by MLB.
#130 – Does anyone know if the White Sox are going to raise their payroll significantly?
Not by more than 5-10, maybe 15 million, which still gives them some breathing room. They have Everett, Thomas, Aaron Rowand, Timo Perez, and Ben Davis coming off the books for a total of 20+ million.
So if they stand pat now, they might even lose payroll, depending on arbitration eligible players like Pierzynski, Garland, and Crede get. Actually, that’s unlikely. But it shouldn’t increase by much.