The 3.20 ERA
Any article you read on the signing of Jarrod Washburn, and any comment defending it, is going to reference his 3.20 ERA last year. In fact, we’ve already seen numerous comments to the effect of “the guy had the fourth best ERA in the American League last year, and that’s more important than his strikeout rate”. The assumption, of course, is that the 3.20 ERA is somehow indicative of a skill Washburn will bring to Seattle. His fielding independant numbers don’t support that assertion. But the fact remains that he did have a 3.20 ERA last year. How’d he do it?
Well, let’s take a look inside Washburn’s season.
Washburn faced 740 batters over the course of the year. 243 of those, 32.7 percent, reached base. The AL average was 32.5 percent. So, we can conclude that Washburn was not significantly better than average at keeping hitters from reaching base.
How about how many bases they got initially? Of the 184 hits he allowed, 129 of them were singles, 31 were doubles, 5 were triples, and 19 were home runs. 70 percent of his hits allowed were singles, compared to just 67 percent of as the league average. That’s not huge, but it’s significant. While he allowed a league average number of baserunners, the fact that he kept more of them to singles than we’d expect helped keep runs off the board. So, there’s part of the lower-than-expected ERA, but certainly not all of it.
So, we know he put an average amount of guys on base, but he allowed a well below average number to score. So let’s take a look at his strand rate. Of the batters he put on base, how many did he leave there when the inning ended? Well, Washburn had the highest LOB% of any pitcher in the AL. He stranded a remarkable 81.8 percent of his batters. The league average is 70 percent. That’s just an enormous difference, and the driving force behind Washburn’s low ERA.
With nobody on base, batters hit .279/.337/.428 against Jarrod Washburn. With runners on, when the league hits about 13 percent better than in non-runners on situations, they hit .267/.315/.408. That’s about a 20 percent swing from his actual performance with runners on to the league average. With runners in scoring position, it got even more extreme. He allowed hitters to bat just .238/.310/.385 in the 122 at-bats he had with RISP, and only 31 runs scored. If you replace his RISP performance with his nobody on performance, he would have given up 12 more runs than he actually did.
Overall, Washburn allowed about 24 runs less than we’d expect based on his baserunner totals and opposing batters lines. Half of that is due to his performance with runners in scoring position. The other half is a combination of the above-average singles allowance and the above average performance with runners on base in non-scoring position situations.
If you believe Washburn’s 3.20 ERA is indicative of any kind of repeatable skill, you are arguing that Jarrod Wasburn has three abilities:
1. The ability to give up singles instead of doubles and triples.
2. The ability to pitch better with runners on base.
3. The ability to be dominant with runners in scoring position.
That’s what you’re hanging your hat on, folks. And guess what? There is no evidence that any of those are repeatable skills.
Washburn’s career singles to hit ratio is 63 percent, below the 67 percent league average, and well below the 70 percent mark he posted in 2005. Even if you don’t believe in the DIPS theory, which has consistently shown over and over to be accurate, Jarrod Washburn has never shown the ability to be an exception and limit the hits he allows to singles. 2005 jumps off the page as an anomoly.
How about pitching better when men are on base?
2005:
None on: .279/.337/.428
Runners on: .267/.315/.408
Scoring Position: .238/.310/.385
2004:
None on: .250/.289/.411
Runners on: .300/.358/.496
Scoring Position: .303/.372/.492
2003:
None on: .250/.295/.333
Runners on: .266/.328/.464
Scoring Position: .250/.316/.427
2002:
None on: .226/.271/.379
Runners on: .250/.313/.368
Scoring Position: .232/.313/.299
Not a skill, folks. Washburn has never shown an ability to pitch better with runners on base. This isn’t a problem unique to him, either. Nobody pitches consistently better with runners on for long periods of time.
Jarrod Washburn did post a 3.20 ERA last year. No one denies that. The question we’ve been posing is how consistent are the skills that he showed that led to that 3.20 ERA? The answer: not at all. Washburn posted a low ERA thanks to putting men on first base and leaving them there. That’s not a recipe for success, and its not one he can repeat.
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It’s pretty weird that he gave up that many singles compared to the rest of hit hits – isn’t it generally the groundball pitchers who give up lots of singles?
Washburn’s been a little less flyball happy over the best two years, but he’s still not exactly grounder-prone – you’d be expecting him to be giving up lots of doubles, triples and homers compared to league average.
Please tell me that Derek will be submitting an Off The Wall column in the P-I to show some non-USSM folks just how average Jarrod Washburn is.
It’s pretty weird that he gave up that many singles compared to the rest of hit hits – isn’t it generally the groundball pitchers who give up lots of singles?
Yep.
Washburn’s been a little less flyball happy over the best two years, but he’s still not exactly grounder-prone – you’d be expecting him to be giving up lots of doubles, triples and homers compared to league average.
Which, if you look at his career, he has. Flyball pitchers take a trade off; more outs, but more harmful hits allowed. Washburn’s career BABIP is lower than league average, but he’s given up more than his share of doubles and triples. It’s the nature of being a flyball pitcher.
So, the fact that he was able to turn those doubles and triples into singles was a significant boon to him this year. It’s just not a skill, however.
So which Jarrod Washburn should we expect to see?
If he isn’t as lucky as he was in 2005 and he reverts back to 2004 form, we should still have a roughly 4.00 ERA pitcher. In 2004 Washburn was torched at Angel Stadium. Theres no way he comes close to a 5.76 ERA in Safeco. And his Road ERA in his worst season stood at 3.77.
So, if his peripherals are as bad on the road as they are at home, he’s been very “lucky” for almost his entire career outside of Angel Stadium. If his peripherals aren’t as bad on the road as they are at home, then by taking him out of LA we’ve got ourselves a legit MOR pitcher.
Ugh. You’d hope that, you know, people would read this post and say “hey, maybe ERA isn’t really that useful an indicator of future success”.
Instead, they just say “hey, I’ll find an even smaller sample size ERA, and call that evidence”.
Elaborating on the flyball pitcher thing, I’m wondering if defensive positioning could influence numbers like that – play the outfielders further back, and more singles drop in, but less doubles and triples do, with homers staying the same. Unfortunately, there doesn’t seem to be a way of seeing whether that was actually the case last year, or indeed if it’d work.
An alternate explanation for Washburn’s singles rate was that he accumulated enough karma from his homerfest in 2003 that the various baseball gods smiled on him last year, which seems just as likely as the first.
Dave–
Your analysis should probably include another factor which is a skill–keeping guys from stealing. Washburn might be the best in the league at giving up second to guys who manage to get to first.
Still won’t explain 3.20, but probably does explain
From the PI’s article. These stats were at bottom of the story, which I call burying the lede.
WASHBURN FYI
# Jarrod Washburn had made fewer than 30 starts the past two seasons. He went 19 days between starts this July because of an elbow injury, and 15 days between starts in September because of tendinitis in his left forearm.
# Washburn’s opponents’ batting average increased from .235 to .256 to .269 to .274 the past four seasons, while his ratio of strikeouts per walk declined from 2.36 to 2.19 to 2.15 to 1.84.
“After signing OF/DH Carl Everett earlier this week, Bavasi said the Mariners are close to learning whether they would be able to sign the free-agent pitchers they seek. Those were thought to be Kevin Millwood and Washburn, both represented by Boras.
“I sense things are close one way or the other. We’ll know if we’re in or out in a relatively short time,” Bavasi said.”
Let’s hope Bill is going after both Millwood AND Washburn… if Kevin signs a Mariners contract, the Washburn signing becomes a decent acquisition, although admittedly a bit overpriced due to market conditions. $9m per for a #3 is a bit much, but managable. $9 per for a #2 is right… but Washburn is not (nor ever will be) that #2 – which is the simplest reason why Washburn, without Millwood, is A Bad Signing.
C’mon, Bill. Christmas is coming, and the stocking’s a little light yet…
If he doesn’t pitch better, but does hold runners on better, how much of the effect on his ERA could it explain? I know some places have made much of the fact that he didn’t allow a stolen base last year.
and Ryan Franklin has one of the best pickoff moves of the league. still doesn’t make him a good pitcher to sign to that kind of contract.
Thanks for putting this up. I think there’s one easy way to sum up why we should be skeptical of Washburn’s ERA. “Remember why we’re stuck with Ryan Franklin.”
Let me get this straight. 5 years for a good pitcher is unacceptable. However 4 years at $1 million less per season for a bad pitcher is acceptable. Oh, okay. Thanks for screwing us on your way out Bill.
All that happens on this wesbsite is whining. Whining about signings. Whining about who isn’t signed. Whining about rumors or signings.
I agree with you that Washburn is neither a great pitcher nor the ansewr to the Ms needs. I also agree that his strand rate last year was a fluke and will regress this year. I also tend to doubt that he has a genuine ability to pitch with men on-base, including when men are in scoring position. That said, you have to concede that his WHIP has been consistently average to better than average. And, in connection with your analysis, the very numbers you rely upon belie your claim that, aside from ‘05, Washburn’s never shown the ability to dominate with men on. He did exactly that in 2002. Is he great? I doubt it. But you also shouldn’t blow off the numbers you show and make absolute statements that aren’t supportable.
Washburn career, bases empty: .247 BAA, 2.21 K/BB
Washburn career, runners on: .268 BAA, 1.77 K/BB
Washburn career, RISP: .263 BAA, 1.59 K/BB
It’s not a skill.
To me it just feels like Bavasi is making moves to try and save his job, instead of making moves with the long term benefit of the franchise in mind. Will these guys help this year? I don’t think so, it feels like Spezio all over again. The only good news I can get out of all of this is that it looks like Franklin will be gone, although I am still expecting to wake up one day and and read a story in the Times that Bavasi has decided to trade Felix and Reed to Boston for Arroyo and Nixon, prompting the return of Ryan Franklin as the Opening Day starter.
Another point to consider: Washburn needs a good defensive outfield to succeed. What impact will the Mariners’ downgraded outfield defense have on him? How about if they trade Jeremy Reed and take another step backward defensively?
Is Washburn a ~9mil guy based on stuff alone? Of course not.
But Safeco should be a welcome change of scenery for him, and if he tallys an ERA around 4.00 with a decent handful of wins, then hey, I’ll take it. Why?
Attitude. The 2005 M’s had as much as a wet washcloth. No ferocity, no passion, no leadership. No problem with losing. No wonder we have guys like Meche who have killer stuff but just don’t win. The mental side of the team is awful.
Wasburn may not be Millwood when it comes to stuff, but Washburn is 100% without a doubt a guy with great intangibles. He’s well known to be a damn hard worker, and a fierce competitor, and a leader.
Normalize it with data all you want, but I think that’s what makes this deal decent. He’ll rub off on everyone else, and give this team some swagger, and I’ll bet others around him will perform better because of it.
I’ll bet Piniero and Meche will benefit from being around him. He’ll be able to show Felix a LOT about how to play the game. And don’t tell me the guys in the field don’t get a little more pep in the step when a guy like that is on the mound.
Confidence is crucial to a winning team. It’s also quite contageous…
That’s exactly what people said about Rich Aurilia.
I don’t get the argument that he’ll be ok in SafeCo, so he’ll be worth the 9M. ANYONE is better in SafeCo, so I don’t see how it is, at all, a point to be made.
Bret Boone, too. If Washburn’s intangibles were so good, why did the Angels suck for half of the seasons he was with them?
Why do the M’s continue to spend empty $? Either go for good players or, just suck with no names. I’m tired of watching wahed up players get semi-big bucks, to get DFA’d, or worse, left on the roster. When will Howie and this crew be gone? This has been the most unispiring 5+ year run I can think of. No trades for good players, only useless roster fillers. Last year they must have gotten outside thier comfort range. Well this year Howie and all must be feeling very cozy.
I notice Steve Kelly is feeling the same as most of us. Thank God I have a construction project this year. I’m not even going to take the radio out to the San Juans while building on the week ends this year. Howie, Chuck and BB,; Do us a favor and drop dead, soon!
Crazy Carl and Washed up Washburn! F’ing unbelievable!
So, let’s assume that this Washburn deal does go through….let’s also assume that Dave is correct in his evaluation of Washburn as a mediocre pitcher. If everything goes how we at USSM expect it to, the team should be slightly better (assuming Reed, Betancourt, etc. improve), but not good enough to save Bavasi’s job. My question is: Does the Washburn signing (and all the other moves to this point this offseason) cripple the M’s in the future?
#19… That why I said as long as he’s pitches *halfway* decent… Of course if he comes in and has an ERA of 7 it’ll be a bust.
All I’m saying is this team needs some fire under their ass, and I think that’s a lot of what BB was thinking signing both Everett and Washburn– they’re both guys that can stir things up. If they can be servicable and provide some emotion in the clubhouse, well, that’s definitely worth something too.
Forgive me if this has been mentioned; If Reed gets shipped out, what are the odds that Ichi would move to and then stay at CF? I’m under the opinion that he has more worth there, as it allows the FO to more easily add power in RF. I know there would be a problem defensively immediately if the deal went through, but in the long run (next year?) we could be better off offensively in the outfield.
So in other words… Jarrod Washburn has never met a skill that he would care to repeat.
But — and I’ve been meaning to do a post on this — countless disastrous signings are justified by “makeup,” “intangibles” and “fire.” If you read the Newnham article I linked, you’ll see that this is precisely what was used to justify signing Rich Aurilia and Scott Spiezio.
If fire and emotion were all a baseball team needed to succeed, we could just sign Henry Rollins.
And you’re totally mis-representing what I’m saying.
Spezio and Aurilia did have great intangibles. And if they played better than AA talent it would have been a great help. You can’t lead a team and inspire a clubhouse if you’re hitting .150 and losing your job.
And like I said, if Washburn comes in and does that — like having an ERA of 7 — it’ll be a huge bust.
But if he can be servicable, have an ERA of ~4.00, and put himself in the position to *be able* to be a leader (who listens to a hack?), then his attitude will be valuable as well.
I just think the USSM crowd has personality undervalued… i.e. how much of the Yankees performance over their recent 90’s dynasty was because of attitude?
O’Neil was so competitive he was borderline homicidal. Jeter busted his ass and would bust on anyone who didn’t as well. Anyone who thinks ferocity like that isn’t valuable has never been on a team and in a locker room.
It matters. And all I’m saying is it’s definitely a potential benefit of the signing, and having Washburn is not *necessarily* a doomsday move like everyone is so resigned to think.
Shouldn’t we be comparing Washburn to whom he might replace in Meche or Franklin? Also, if you argue that Washburns intangibles didn’t help on a few bad Angels team you would have to agree that he was apart of a championship team.
Can luck be sustained? Seems that Washburn was “lucky” last year in pitching better with RISP. The year before was bad. The other years while not pitching better with RISP he didn’t pitch bad. Maybe this “luck” is more than you can measure. Maybe he gives up more singles because of hitters not making solid contact. Maybe more scouting should be relied on than just breaking down numbers.
I’m not trying to misrepresent what you’re saying, and I don’t think I am. It seems to me what you’re saying is:
“If he pitches well, the signing will be good, because he will also bring intangibles. If he pitches poorly, the signing will be bad.”
What I’m saying is a) Given all the available evidence, he’s unlikely to pitch well; and b) “intangibles” are often used to justify bad signings where players are unlikely to perform well on the field.
Also — and this is one place where we agree, I think — all the “leadership qualities” in the world won’t help you if you stink, because people won’t listen to you.
I’ll have a post next week that fleshes out my thoughts on b), but now I have to get ready for the book event.
ABs with RISP or runners on base is a pretty small sample size.
Three consecutive years of improving ERA in stadiums other than Angel Stadium is not a small sample size:
2002: 2.65
2003: 4.39
2004: 3.77
2005: 2.65
The worst ERA he’s ever put up on the road is 4.39. His Safeco ERA is gonna be better than whatever his road ERA is gonna be, right? So, If he really regresses like people suggest, we’re looking at a 4.20 ERA pitcher. $9 million is the going rate for those kind of guys, like it or not.
I just think its dumb to lok at Washburn’s stats like he’s still going to be pitching half the time in LA.
Slim, isn’t Anahiem a pitcher’s park?
Anaheim is mostly neutral, with a slight edge toward hitters. But the park obviously doesn’t favor Washburn, so it really doesn’t matter how other pitchers do in it.
Not to criticize your analysis Dave, but I think it’s difficult to dismiss his home and away breakdowns so easily. Over the last 3 years, Washburn has been SIGNIFICANTLY better away from Angels stadium. And it is not just ERA that tells this story, but virtually every peripheral stat one can find. 3.59 era vs 4.68. 1.20 whip vs 1.42. .250 avg/against vs .284. 1.1 HR’s per/9 vs 1.39. The list goes on. All of these numbers are statistically significant and occurred within a fairly large sample size (294.2 vs 240.1 innings respectively). I’m not necessarily saying that Washburn is worth 9 mil, but I find it puzzling that such obviously significant stats are so easily dismissed here. If these stats aren’t significant, I’d be interested to see someone intelligently explain them. Because, at the moment, I’m quite puzzled.
So who’s going to be the new gm next year for the m’s after everett’s shoulders goes out and gets into a fight with some minor league call-up who went to college and argues the dinosaur theory and washburn turns out to be franklin’s twin brother with a left arm?
w/r/t intangibles, I again want to point out that many times, a player brought in to provide clubhouse leadership/etc will turn out to be a horrible fit on the team. For instance, Spiezio was hired in part to bring his competitiveness, his work ethic that was supposed to rub off on other players, and it soon became apparant that he had neither.
When you attempt to buy something you can’t see, measure, or evaluate, you don’t know what you’re going to get.
Scott, earlier in post 16, were you joking about trading Reed for Arroyo, because apparently that’s what they’re thinking:
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/baseball/252470_mari17.html
Now if Bavasi can just get the Felix for Eric Milton deal done before Christmas…
His ERA the past six years:
3.74
3.77
3.15
4.43
4.64
3.20
If he has an *average* year, or even *slightly below* average, he’ll have an ERA of 4.00 tops. That’s not FOR stuff, of course. But it’s enough to be respectable in the MOR. It’s more than we could expect from Pavano, Clement, or even Arroyo. And look at what NY & BOS payed Pavano and Clement…
And he has just as much of a chance of posting an ERA of 5.00 as 3.00… they’re both significant deviations and neither should be expected.
Six years of data say it’ll be ~4.00, and that should be enough to be respectable and win a decent handful of games. And it most certainly would be enough to make him a clubhouse factor and allow him to become a leadership figure.
Is this the signing of the century? Of course not. But it’s not so bad as everyone is making it out to be.
I think the M’s would’ve been fine with Spiezio’s lack of intangibles, leadership, and work ethic. The problem was that he didn’t hit. If he had hit well he would’ve been a great fit.
If Washburn pitches well his leadership, intangibles, etc. will fit in well. If he doesn’t, they won’t.
You can’t lead if you suck.
#39: It’s not this year that has me worried. It’s the whole $9.5 million-for-his-36-year-old season that’s scary.
I really like this move especially with us being the rumored front runners for Millwood… I think Bavasi is trying to make it to where we don’t have to bring back Franklin and Gil Meche… Also, if we get Bronson Arroyo in a trade of course it puts a hole in center field but hes only making like 1.8 mil thats a steal right there…
If I take the heading post above is the argument that there are no pitchers in baseball that have melt downs when they get into a jam? An conversely no pitchers who get mad and toughen up and find a way to get out of the inning? Now I do not have numbers to refute this but I would guess Jeff Fassero under performed when runners were on base in tight situations and repeated that skill throughout his Mariner days.
“I only made 2 bad pitches”
#42: If we signed Millwood now, I’d be shocked. We just don’t have the cash unless these contracts are ridiculously backloaded (and I mean in payroll, not resources).
#43: The argument is about Washburn reverting to his norm. It’s not about ‘can some pitchers consistantly display X skill’, because some can. Apparently Washburn can’t.
I am really intrigued if we can get this signing than trade for Bronson Arroyo than go out and sign Kenny Lofton or Corey Patterson if the Cubs non tender him both of those would be upgrades over Jeremy Reed for this season and Arroyo is REALLY cheap
Basically, there are two camps on Washburn: Those who worship at the alter of ERA, and those who don’t.
This entire thread breaks down to whether or not you’re willing to look deeper than ERA. If you’re not, I’m not really sure why we should care what you think.
Not to criticize your analysis Dave, but I think it’s difficult to dismiss his home and away breakdowns so easily. Over the last 3 years, Washburn has been SIGNIFICANTLY better away from Angels stadium.
Except Edison Field isn’t a hitters park. Do you have any idea why Washburn pitches better away from home? If not, then how do you know its the park, when the park clearly doesn’t affect others in a similar manner. Why are you willing to accept that its cleary the park, and not Washburn’s mental inability to pitch at home?
I’m not supporting “Washburn is only a good pitcher away from his wife”, but there’s simply as much evidence to support that as a claim as there is to support any kind of “Angels Stadium kills Jarrod Washburn, but no other pitcher” theory.
Washburn hasn’t been “killed by Edison Field”. Correlation does not equal causation. If you want to present some theories supported by evidence for why he spefically can’t pitch in that park, yet other, extremely similar pitchers can, be my guest.
But, honestly, I’m pretty certain it’s an abberration.
#42, I think you must have been kidding.
Trading Reed for Arroyo puts a hole in center field, right. So doesn’t putting a hole in center field absolutely negate any possible benefit of signing Washburn, Arroyo, and Moyer since those guys depend on their outfield to catch fly balls?
Even if you move Ichiro to center, who is going to play right? Everett? Bloomie?
Everett was the wrong answer to the right question. Washburn was the wrong answer to the right question. So here is another one for Bavasi from Ichiro
Ichiro said, “Given that this team just got worse, not better; and given that I’d like to play for a contender, why shouldn’t I demand to be traded to a team that is run properly?”
Bavasi said, “Good question, and my answer is . . . “
And it is not just ERA that tells this story, but virtually every peripheral stat one can find. 3.59 era vs 4.68. 1.20 whip vs 1.42. .250 avg/against vs .284. 1.1 HR’s per/9 vs 1.39. The list goes on. All of these numbers are statistically significant
Okay, here goes.
ERA has many flaws. The biggest one is that it has very minimal predictive value. Year to year ERA correlation is quite low, because there are a significant amount of things that go into ERA that are outside the realm of the pitcher’s control.
WHIP is a fantasy stat that is basically useless for projecting future performance. It has the same flaw that Opponents Avg has. It gives the pitcher credit for hit prevention, which is actually not a skill. Google for “Defensive Independant Pitching Statistics”. There’s several good articles by Voros McCracken, Tom Tippett, and Keith Woolner on the subject. Also, you could purchase a copy of the Hardball Times 2006 Annual, which has a lengthy article on the subject. Bottom line, though; any statistic that includes hits allowed is flawed, and has enough issues to essentially be ignored.
HR/9 fails to adjust for the fact that home runs are essentially a function of flyball rate. Pitchers who give up a significant amount of fly balls one year yet keep the ball in the park are likely to see a decline the following year, as allowing 320 foot flyouts is simply not a skill. You can find homerun/outfield fly ratio at http://www.hardballtimes.com.
If you want to project a pitcher well, you need three main points of analysis, and then the rest of it is essentially minor details; walk rate, strikeout rate, and ground ball/fly ball rate. Those three things are the consistent year to year indicators that a pitcher has control over. Those three data points will remain fairly steady, certainly moreso than any other pitching statistic.
Betting on things like WHIP or ERA to reproduce themselves is a great way to acquire bad, bad pitchers. They both contain too much misinformation to be useful.
#45 The idea of Arroyo being a Mariner is plain stupid. Not only is Arroyo a free agent after this year, but he’s also only a slightly better version of Ryan Franklin. Jeremy Reed is worth A LOT more than Bronson Arroyo.
Considering this offseason, if the M’s trade Reed for Ryan Franklin Jr and sign Kenny Lofton or Corey Patterson for center, that has to be ten steps backward.
RE: #7 above, regarding Washburn’s ability to hold baserunners . . .
That’s a quantifiable, repeatable skill – right? Washburn allows fewer stolen bases than anyone else in the major leagues, if I read the data correctly.
Fewer runners moving into scoring position (relative to a pitcher with average basrunner-holding skills) certainly saves Washburn a few runs every year. Let’s throw a number out there and say that this could save him five runs over the course of a year.
If a pitcher with 200 innings and an ERA of 4.5 over the course of year allowed five fewer earned runs, his ERA would drop to 4.275. That’s not the difference between 3.20 and 4.50 – as some data suggests Washburn’s ERA might escalate to the 4.5 vicinity – but it’s an example of a repeatable skill that Washburn posesses and uses to keep some number of runs off the scoreboard.
It’s a minor point, but it’s significant to me only because nobody wants to talk about Washburn’s strengths. I would be shocked if this signing turns out as bad as everyone claims it to be.
#48 signing a CF would be a lot cheaper than signing Millwood… Some productive CFs that are on the market are… Kenny Lofton, Preston Wilson, and probably Corey Patterson
Preston Wilson is the opposite of productive.
#53: Wait, these are upgrades on Jeremy Reed how?
Kenny Lofton and Corey Patterson would be immediate upgrades over Jeremy Reed
You know, when I first read about the signing I was pissed. But the more I thinka bout it, it sucks that his contract is so high, but he is still a better pitcher then over half of last years starting rotation. Washburn is an upgrade over Franklin, Meche, or Pinero, and maybe even Moyer. He makes this staff better, at way to much money and not as “better” as anyone was hoping for, but better none-the-less.
Kenny Lofton and Corey Patterson would be immediate upgrades over Jeremy Reed
Okay, I’m trying to be nice about this, but you make it so hard.
That’s the stupidest thing you’ve said in the past week. And you’ve had some doozies.
Corey Patterson had a .254 on base percentage last year. .254.
For comparison, Jason Marquis has a career .252 on base percentage. But he’s a pitcher!
He makes this staff better, at way to much money and not as “better†as anyone was hoping for, but better none-the-less.
Google for the phrase “opportunity cost”.
The Mariners could have cheap, roughly comparable versions of Jarrod Washburn and Bronson Arroyo anytime they want. Bobby Livingston would make the league minimum, and Ryan Franklin could be tendered and re-signed for $1.2 million or thereabouts.
So either we pay $1.6 million for the generic-cigarette versions (good defensive center fielder included), or at least $10.8 million for the brand-name versions (less the good center fielder).
American Spirit vs. Winston Ultra Lights.
Cany someone on this board explain why there is an infatuation with Jeremy Reed. How is he any better than a 4th outfielder on a good team? After last year how can he be projected to anything more than Alex Diaz? You cant afford a outfielder with no power playing with a $11million right fielder with no power.
T-Mac,
Do you want to name a better available center fielder that isn’t going to cost $10M a year and is likely to stay better over the course of his contract?
#60 Wow, you’re giving up on a player after playing only one full season at the professional level? Omar Minaya, is that you?
T-mac, here’s how I project things. I go back and do a three year analysis, then do an age/park factor. It’s really not very hard.
Ichiro has no power, eh? He wasn’t too far off Ibanez last year in terms of homers. Speaking of having no power, Reed could’ve set the rookie record for doubles in a season were he healthy all year.
Also, where does it say which position you need power from? Look at the 2001 Mariners, for example. Power threats at second base and centre field, not exactly the most orthodox of bat distribution.
#60:
Easy.
a) Jeremy Reed plays good defense. He’s above-average right now as a center fielder, and will eventually make a top-flight corner outfielder.
b) Jeremy Reed has massive upside. Everything in his minor league record says that he’ll be a better hitter than he showed in ‘05.
c) People who get swayed by Reed’s rough ‘05 season are the ones who lack perspective. A lot of players struggled in their first seasons of full-time play. What if the Mariners had given up on Ken Griffey Jr. after he hit .264 with 16 home runs and 61 RBIs as a full-timer in 1989? Or Omar Vizquel after he took about three seasons to find his bat. In both cases, these guys were worth carrying because 1) their previous records showed they projected to be much better than they showed so far; and 2) they played standout defense.
It can’t be said often enough. Good defense is HUGE. Dismissing that as some sort of optional add-on while being scope-locked on Reed’s offensive shortcomings in ‘05 is just plain wrong.
Can Kenny Lofton still play in center anyway?
So Washburn had a 3.20 ERA last year and youre trying to say he didnt?
#59 said “Ryan Franklin could be tendered and re-signed for $1.2 million or thereabouts.”
Uh, no he couldn’t. The way the the arbitration process works, no matter how bad a season Franklin had, he’ll get a raise in salary (from last year’s $2.7 mil) if he isn’t non-tendered. Further, the least he could possibly make is about $2.2 mil — if tendered a contract the M’s would not be allowed (per the CBA) to offer a salary with more than a 20% cut…
Dave,
(/sarcasm) Opportunity cost? We certainly can’t bring economics into this discussion! What does that have to do with baseball?
#47 Frankly, its all of those freakin’ shaking monkees…thats pretty scary stuff…
Dave,
If you want to show that Washburn “has never shown an ability to pitch better with runners on base,” why are you using opponents’ batting statistics? The pitcher can’t control a lot of what goes into those numbers, so I don’t see why we should consider them a good reflection of any sort of ability he might have. I think your argument on this point would be a lot more consistent and compelling if we saw that Washburn’s K/9, BB/9, HR/9, G/F, were not usually better with runners on base than with no runners on base.
#67: Ah, you’re right. I forget … anybody BUT the Mariners can sign Ryan Franklin for reasonable money.
Oh, well … Jeff Harris can do the same job as Ryan Franklin for $350,000, so there’s an even cheaper in-house option to Bronson Arroyo available to us.
#66: No, we’re all trying to say that ERA doesn’t tell us enough about how good a pitcher is. And it tells us NOTHING about how good a pitcher will be in the future.
If you want to know how good a pitcher truly is or will be, look at the numbers that indicate how well he did at the things he alone can control.
#67, But the M’s could non-tender Franklin and then sign him to a much lesser amount couldnt they?
#49: wonderful post…those make the blog certifieably blogerific..
On a related note, I think most who frequent here regularly tend to abandon ERA quickly. Here’s a question though… walk rate should be a teachable skill, probably strikeout rate is less teachable since it relies to a larger degree upon certain intagibles (i.e. god-given 99 mph fastball for instance). What about the FO/GO ratio? Is this a skill that can be developed through an ingrained philosophy in the farm system? It seems to me that location could make a huge difference since its easier to get air under a ball that is higher in the strikezone. But perhaps its pitch selection (sinkerballers are more often ground out guys)? Maybe its a flip side of the strikeout rate? Has this been covered before? How unusual would it be for a strikeout pitcher to also be a flyball pitcher?
The only measurement of a pitcher’s quality more abused and less meaningful than ERA is W/L.
And if people don’t understand the underlying stats that paint a true picture of a pitcher… then why argue it?
As a side note, I think many sportswriters might suffer from being trained to cover multiple sports. In football, so many of the things they believe are important (attitude, chemistry, leadership) actually ARE important… in baseball, yeah, not so much. A pitcher is not a quarterback.
GB/FB is pretty close to a fundamental trait, I’ve heard.
Having a sinker helps though, I’d suspect.
#72 So youre trying to say that Washburn didnt have a 3.20 ERA last year?
FIP is a bunch of bunk…afer all its the catcher that told the pitcher what to throw…. and its the manager that told the catcher what to tell the pitcher to throw…. I think the most relaible idicator of a pitcher’s future performance would be MIP (managers’ intelligence probability).
But then again its the GM who hires the manager so maybe GIP?
But then again the GM doesnt really do anything without the ownership’s approval so….OIP?
But then again the ownership doesnt get away with imcompetance for too long without the fans’ approaval…. so I guess FIP does work pretty well….
Washburn is a lefty with heart but id rather have Zach Duke…
Okay, I’m trying to be nice about this, but are the Mariners/Bavasi just stupid?
Even if I only understand half of this post and even if I don’t pray at the church of DIPS and believe ERA has some value, I’m looking at three years of 4.43, 4.64, 3.20 and it seems obvious that the 3.20 is the outlier. And I see an ERA north of 4 going forward.
Why doesn’t Bavasi see this? Why doesn’t someone else in the FO see this and slap BB around? Are they pretending that 2003 and 2004 didn’t happen?
#73 – I’m pretty sure it’s isn’t uncommon at all for a strike-out pitcher to be a flyball pitcher. In fact, I think it’s less common to have high stike-out guys be extreme ground-ball pitchers. But that can be a killer combo – guys like Felix, Zambrano, Carpenter, etc.
Also, this deal would be whole different level of awful than the Everett contract. People who are happy that the M’s are doing “something” need to realize this “something” will still be with the M’s 4 years from now making ~$9 million. The probability that this ends up as a good signing is very, very low.
I’m still holding out hope this is all a red herring. I just have a hard time believing it…
“The Mariners could have cheap, roughly comparable versions of Jarrod Washburn and Bronson Arroyo anytime they want. Bobby Livingston would make the league minimum, and Ryan Franklin could be tendered and re-signed for $1.2 million or thereabouts.”
Do you honestly think if we threw Livingston and Franklin out there we would be just as effective as if we aquired Washburn and Arroyo? Sorry, but I just don’t see it. It’s true the Washburn signing is pretty mediocre, but it is going to help field a decent major league rotation.
Felix
Washburn
Pineiro
Moyer
Meche
That’s still not going to cut it, but one more above average starter would give us the 2nd best rotation in the AL West, IMO.
#57 – Dave, I know what oppertunity cost is, and I am not at all claiming this is a good signing or a good use of money, read what I posted again, I never said that, all I said is that he makes last years rotation better. I would never have made the signing because how much better he makes the team is not at all in porportion to how much he costs, and yes, they could have made the team a lot better if they spent that money elsewhere, but the pitching staff is still going to be better then last year with Washburn in it.
What is just depressing is the sickening realization that as long as Bavasi is the helm, the Mariners have zero chance of getting to even 2nd place in the AL West.
Everett and Washburn are just complete nothing moves that tie up our resources on unproductive players. Yes, they are “better.” But being better than a 90 loss team isn’t hard.
The real pain of these contracts won’t be felt next year, though it will be mind numbing to watch an 85 loss team. The real pain will be felt in the out years of Washburn’s contract when he is sporting his 4.95 ERA for $9 million a year. That is when the opporunity costs will be felt the most. It is 2007 and 2008 when we are having to pass up on signing good players because our cash is tied up in Washburn. Factor in the opportunity costs of Washburn with the declining ticket sales, and this is a team on the brink.
The move that needs to be made is sacking Bavasi and bringing in Theo Epstein. I throw his name out there because it is a name. Really, anyone would be better than Bavasi.
#82, agreed.
To make it clear, my only arguement is that so far, next years rotation will be better then last years. That however does not, in anyway make this a good signing, just makes it easier for me keep from jumping.
#80: I’m saying the velue we would get from Livingston and Harris at $350,000 a year would be far better than the value we would get from Arroyo at a few million a year and Washburn at $9 million a year. The saved money could then be used to go out and get effective ballplayers … not that Bill Bavasi has any idea how to identify one.
Theory of the day: Washburn and Millwood are both represented by Boras, right? Maybe they have a deal with Boras to overpay Washburn in exchange for him making his Millwood demands more reasonable.
Even if that is true, I still think this is a pretty bad deal. Committing 20+ million a year to those two pitchers would severely hamstring us going into next years strong free agent class.
#78
I find it funny how you left the year previous to his to above 4 ERA years the year before that he posted a 3.15 ERA… Please don’t just leave that year out for no reason when showing Washburn…
So 50% of the time hes posted a ERA under 3.20 like I said before NOT bad… If he comes in Seattle and posts an ERA of under 4.00 each year he is here… It will be a good signing… I think he can do that
#85
Harris is not a MLB pitcher as evidenced by last season he had a few good starts thats it… Livingston is know where close to Washburn… Sure there cheaper but you can’t just keep putting “cheaper” players in you got to go out and spend a little to be a contender
You think he is going to have a sub-4 ERA four years from now?
Wowza. You think Washburn is going to get BETTER as he ages. You shoul dbe able to get really favorable odds on that in Vegas.
#87: (Repeating message) ERA … is not … a vaild tool … for … predicting future … performance. Please … make … a note of it.”
#88: I think the numbers back up my argument better than yours. Look at them more closely.
Mariners do you realize what you just typed.
Redux: “If he pitches well it will be a good signing.”
Well duh!
And if Ryan Franklin could pitch well, he’d be a good pitcher.
Washburn’s past performance indicates that he is not likely to post an ERA under 4.00 each year he is here. That’s why it is not a good signing NOW.
#86 I wish I could believe that were even a faint possibility, but I see no indication whatsoever that the Mariners are willing to spend all that money.
What confuses me most about this, more than anything, is that it’s already happening. If Bavasi was so sure last week that no one would move until the Mariners do, what’s the story? Why not wait this out or try to find some leverage or something? Why does this feel like a panic signing in the middle of an offseason when all these other options are still available? In February after somebody pays $65 mil or something ridiculous for Millwood I could see this happening. But why right now?
Man, the ex-Angels fetish has got to go. And even if Bavasi’s operating under sound logic from his perspective and the stats really miss something great about Washburn somehow, I can’t comprehend this timeline. What’s the hurry? Is there any other way to interpret this than us panicking? I do not understand. Did we completely lose faith that we could get Millwood on a 4-year deal? Has someone offered him 5?
Anyway, barring a miracle, Bavasi’s lost any faith from me. I’ve liked his attitude toward the farm system, but this is crazy. Washburn had better secretly be his illegitimate son or something because that’s about the only other thing that makes sense to me.
#86, nah, Millwood isn’t coming here. Washedupbum is the M’s big signing.
I am both amused, and saddened, by how many times various people have brought up “but his ERA in (xxx situation) was 3.05!”
It doesn’t matter what sample you use, whether it was Tuesday night games with the roof closed underneath a full moon or not; ERA is not a good predictor of future performance for a pitcher. It simply isn’t.
FWIW, some Washburn splits for 2000-2004 (the years for which retrosheet has these splits):
K/(Total Batters Faced)
None on: 0.147
Men on: 0.143 (0.5 standard deviations lower)
RISP: 0.168 (1.5 SD higher)
BB/TBF
None on: 0.060
Men on: 0.081 (3 SD higher)
RISP: 0.105 (4 SD higher)
HR/TBF
None on: 0.034
Men on: 0.030 (0.8 SD lower)
RISP: 0.023 (1.9 SD lower)
This doesn’t adjust for the fact that the league as a whole seems to have a drop in K/TBF with men on versus none on, and the league as a whole shows an increase in BB/TBF with men on versus none on. If you adjust for these, Washburn has a higher K/TBF by 0.8 SD with men on and a higher K/TBF by 2.0 SD with RISP. Again, making adjustment for the league tendancy, Washburn’s BB/TBF is only 0.6 SD higher with men on and only 1.2 SD higher with RISP.
To really tell if these are statistically significant differences, we should look at the leaguewide distribution, but I don’t have the time to do that right now. At the least, though, I don’t think it’s very clear that Washburn hasn’t been a little better with runners on base than he is without runners on base.
#87, I don’t believe ERA alone is an effective guideline for how a pitcher will perform in the future but even if it were, why would you think that what a pitcher did at 27 before arm injuries would be indicative of what he would do at 31 after arm injuries?
[blip]
Don’t you hate the feeling that people are laughing at you beind your back?
#99 – Not at us. At Bill. He’ll be gone by year’s end.
12 months too late. This is dreadful.
Even if Washburn is better than the guys he’s replacing in the rotation (Meche, Franklin), he’s WAY more expensive than they are.
if Washburn comes in and [has] an ERA of 7 – it’ll be a huge bust
So you want to wait to see how he does before you decide whether Bavasi made a good decision? Shouldn’t Bavasi be able to tell now whether he made a good decision? Otherwise, isn’t he just always guessing?
That’s like making Gary Gygax your GM. “I rolled a 42 on the free agent aquisitions table, so I’ll pay $9 million/year to some guy from the Overpriced Veterans table.”
This is a little baffling to say the least.
I can’t believe the Mariners didn’t want to give Milwood the money, he would have been a sure thing (in the sense that he would have been for sure good)!
I mean, Washburn could be a good pitcher, but his health history makes that not a guarantee. I guess the Mariners think that Milwood is not a guarantee, and they may easily have their #1 starter already, and his name is Felix Hernandez.
Well, what this means is that the way you judge the Mariners offseason will depend on their performance on the field this season.
The Mariners acquired some good players in the offseason, not great, but pretty good for the most part.
But there are no guarantees, and Kelley is absolutely right when he says what you see is what you get.
-Johjima could be good next year, but there is no guarantee his “Johnny Bench like” performance in Japan will transfer to the U.S. of A. and there is that broken leg he had next year.
-Moyer and Guardado are still good pitchers, even though they are aging a little bit.
-Everett is pretty self explanatory, he could easily hit 20 HRs and have 80 RBIs next year. But at 35, he could easily catch “senior citizen-itus” and have a crappy year, and of course, there is that crappy attitude he has carried everywhere with him except in Chicago where Ozzie Guillen (unlike Mike Hargrove according to the Ichiro article) was very hands-on and involved with keeping his players in line, and also being their friend.
-Washburn with his 3.20 ERA and capability of winning 10 to 15 games is a solid #2 or #3 starter (although I would’ve rather had Santa give me Kevin Milwood for Christmas), but again, his history of bad health raises a flag as red and tall as the “Big A” at Angels Stadium.
-And finally, chances are you will see a trade for another starting pitcher (rumor has it Sidney Ponson is a possibility, YUCK!), and how good this trade works out depends on the pitcher and who we give up.
But that’s a different topic for a different day.
To sum it all up:
Did Bavasi overpay Washburn: Yes, a solid number 2 or number 3 starter like him with a bad health history is not supposed to be paid $9 million a year, at best, I would give Washburn $5 to $6 million for 3 years with a team option for a 4th.
But does this mean Washburn will do bad: No, if he’s healthy, he’s a solid pickup, and in SAFECO Field against hitters he knows from the AL, he could win some games for you.
The Mariners could be .500 next year, and I still believe it even with this move, and the next one we make which will bring a starting pitcher to Seattle. Even if you had Milwood this year, you weren’t going to beat Oakland and Anaheim for the A.L. West. I guarantee you we would’ve probably won 85 games this year with Milwood, but not much more. This team is just too young right now.
The question you’ll need to ask yourself this year is this:
Are the Mariners really a year away from playoff contention/greatness?
or
Is Bavasi really an idiot and is it time to clean house in the front office after next year?
Remember as you look at the Mariners current state, once upon a time in 2002, the Seahawks weren’t selling out QWEST Field, they were a young team, they were 3-7, and fans wanted to dump coach Mike Holmgren, Matt Hasslebeck, and Shaun Alexander.
3 years later, they may be on their way to the Super Bowl, and those 3 characters would be going with them.
Mind you, the right people had to be hired in the Front Office first, but still.
I guess the point I’m trying to make is patience is a virtue, we’ll find out what guys we need to keep and have go away next year. And I’m sure by 2007 or 2008 we may be looking at a playoff team if we just continue to put player development, hiring and firing the right people, and spending money on top of our list of priorities.
The USS Titanic (aka, Seattle Mariners) continues on its journey towards doom apace.
All steam ahead! Go job, Captain Bavasi! Clear skies and sailing as far as the eye can see!
Going way back to comment #5, how come 600+ innings is “small sample size”, Dave? That’s more than half his career.
Washburn career:
IP / ERA / WHIP / BAA W-L
Home 538.1 4.61 1.38 .277 28-33
Away 615.0 3.34 1.18 .235 47-24
Those number say “get Jarrod Washburn out of Anaheim”.
And just for kicks, Ryan Franklin, who many seem to see as comparable:
IP / ERA / WHIP / BAA W-L
Home 389.0 3.98 1.29 .253 19-20 (meh)
Away 422.1 4.67 1.36 .279 16-30 (bleah!)
What those numbers say is “Safeco Field makes Ryan Franklin look like a quarter-decent pitcher”.
I’m not saying there aren’t some valid concerns about Washburn, but it’s pretty clear that the big A has been a big factor in his career, and generic park factors may not tell the whole story.
personally I like the Arroyo for Reed trade. I think its a good fit, once patterson is non-tendered I bet we could bring him in and then we could still pull off the Mateo for Pavano trade. thate would give us (even with washburn) of
Moyer
Felix
Washburn
Arroyo
Pavano
I only place Felix at #2 because of his age but he is obviuously the #1 of the future. still with the potential of that supporting cast I would put my pitchfork away. I would also give Raffy a NRI for spring training and take a chance on the guy who probably wants to show his numbers are not completely steriod induced. It would be different than last year for sure, but assuming Beltre can make an improvement and Sexson stays consistant we could suprise some folks.
I understand everyone throwing around stats to question the potential JW signing (especially on this blog) but I dont think you need stats to be puzzled over this one.
Lets assume the reported figuires are accurate for the contract.
How is a five year deal for arguably a workhorse (KM) more risky than a four year deal to a guy with a history of arm problems (JW) ?
[see comment guidelines]
Dave Paisley
You point out that Washburn has consistently been better on the road than in Anaheim, just in the way that Franklin has consistently been better at Safeco.
What’s missing is an explanation for this. With Franklin it’s easy – Safeco is an extreme pitchers park. That means it’s not only a correlation, but a likely cause.
There is nothing about the Angels’ home field that should cause Washburn to pitch worse there. Since we don’t know the cause for the split, we can’t assume that he’ll pitch better at home just because he has a different home stadium. Maybe he just hates being around his wife and kids.
People who are happy that the M’s are doing “something†need to realize this “something†will still be with the M’s 4 years from now making ~$9 million.
Nah, just like Jeff Cirillo, they’ll pin a check to his chest and ship him down to San Diego in exchange for some of the Padres’ crap.
1. #106 – What? On what basis are you assuming Patterson will be non-tendered? Not even Jim Bowden is that stupid. Have you heard something I haven’t? And you haven’t addressed either of the principal problems with a Reed for Arroyo trade:
a. Arroyo is a bad pitcher
b. We don’t have a center fielder to replace Reed, unless Ichiro moves over, in which case we don’t have a right fielder.
2. According to Cot’s baseball contracts, if this deal goes through, the Mariners payroll figures (in millions) for next year start like this:
Suzuki – 11.2
Beltre – 11
Moyer – 6.5
Guardado – 6.25
Sexson – 11.5
Pineiro – 6.3
Johjima – 6.5
Everett – 3.4
Ibanez – 4.25
Washburn – 9.5 (ballpark estimate)
Meche – 4 (Ballpark estimate)
Total – 80.4
This factors in players reaching incentives, plus Johjima’s signing bonus.
That’s 80.4 million for 11 players. If we sign Millwood for 11 a year, we’ll be at 91.4 for twelve players. Leaving us less than 4 million dollars to pay the other 13 members of the roster. My conclusion is that signing Millwood is quite possible, but to do so we’d have to push the payroll a little or trade Pineiro and/or Meche, since they’d be redundant anyway.
#106 – Apologies; in my last post, I thought you were referring to John Patterson for some reason, not Cory Patterson. Cory is interesting, but I don’t think it’s a good idea to trade Reed for a mediocre Pitcher and replace him with an uncertainty like Cory Patterson.
Not that it matters or anything, but still nothing official from the Mariners on Washburn.
I didn’t read all the posts so maybe this was covered but remember last time a deal was done pending physical and everyone got all pissed and somehow Vizquel failed his physical?
#102 (Evan) – Since no else has done this, I have to give you props on your Gary Gygax reference. Man, that brings back memories of 20-sided dice.
I’m a fifth level Vice President
Re Reed-for-Arroyo:
I’ve just been reading just about everthing there is to find on every news Web site imaginable, and what I take away from that is that there are two trade fronts equally open if Boston feels they can’t get Johnny Damon — either deal Clement or Arroyo to Cleveland for Coco Crisp, or deal Arroyo (looks like Clement mentions have faded out) for Jeremy Reed.
It’s all up to Boston at this point, is the impression I get.
I know there has been a post with rough estimates on the Mariners payroll for 2006 but when might we see an update to the website?
Re: Washburn & Millwood, seems possible to get them both if Washburn’s contract is closer to $30/4 — plus a trade or two to free up space — considering most of those 13 other players will be players making under $1 million (Betancourt, Reed, Morse, Dobbs, etc).
If Bavasi trades Reed for Arroyo, then he should immediately be fired as soon as the deal is finalized.
If the Washedupbum deal is 4 years for $30 million, then that isn’t as truly awful as once perceived. However, I still believe Bavasi gave him a 4 year, $38 million contract.
Oh, and Cleveland is deemed unlikely to pull the trigger on this trade unless they know they’re getting an outfielder to replace Crisp — namely, one Nomar Garciaparra through free agency.
Quite the circle of love.
#118 – Cot’s is pretty up to date. They had Everett listed on the Mariners section, with all the details, the same day it was announced.
http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/
However, in my original payroll list, I forgot to mention the 3.25 or so owed to Scott Speizio. That puts a damper on things a little, but I still maintain that signing Millwood is quite possible.
#109: that issue has already been cleared up…30,000 freakin’ waving monkees are unsettling
#111: Its a virtual certainty that C. Patterson will be nontendered-Jim Hendry is on record as saying the Cubs have no intention of letting C.P. go…
#117: The Indians are noticeably cooling on trading Coco to the BoSox since their FA dreams are not quite working out and the Sox braintrust are drooling over Reed. Coco would have to be considered their backup plan in case their backup plan didnt work.
While I like Arroyo and/or Clement being added to the rotation, not at the price of Reed.
I think the frustrating thing about this offseason for me seems to be the lack of creativity. Case in point, the Rangers picked up a very serviceable arm for their rotation (Padilla) for a sack of potatoes (the PTBNL is likely to be a lower level arm with a career ERA of over 5). Padilla obviously isnt Millwood, but he’s only 29, makes 3.2 mill a year, has a career FIP of 4.23, a career GO/AO of 1.52, a carrer BB/9 of 3.1 and a K/9 of 6.1. In my mind, this is the kind of guy that is a perfect 4th or 5th starter in Safeco. The M’s couldve got him for nothing so it wouldnt have been a huge chance to take.
#19– “He’s well known to be a damn hard worker, and a fierce competitor, and a leader.”
so is Jamie Moyer
#76– “FIP is a bunch of bunk…afer all its the catcher that told the pitcher what to throw…. and its the manager that told the catcher what to tell the pitcher to throw…”
um, yeah.
#125: uhhh…joke…DUH
And to just add something to #124 here are Arroyo’s career comparisons…
Arroyo:
GO/AO .97; FIP: 4.29; BB/9: 2.91; K/9: 5.6.
Padilla:
GO/AO 1.52; FIP: 4.23; BB/9: 3.1; K/9: 6.1.
These guys are essentially the same except Padilla is more of a grounder guy. Since Padilla couldve been had for little cost, trading Reed for Arroyo would be like giving Reed away in my naive way of thinking…..
#126: And more to the point, acquiring Vicente Padilla would have been pointless.
I’d like more knowledgeable readers’ opinions. Could Washburn help this team win a championship in the next 4 years? Would he have started a playoff game for any of last year’s playoff teams? In a playoff game does the other team get hopeful or nervous if they see they’re facing him?
As a fan what I want from a team is to believe that they have at least a reasonable chance of contending for a championship; and if not this year then in a year or two. Really why should Mariner fans expectations be any lower? (except for the performance of the FO!) We have a great stadium, great financial support for the team, and city that a lot of players would like to live in.
The last I heard the M’s payroll budget was about 90 million – if that is right then for the next 4 years this guy is taking up one tenth of the team payroll. If the team is going to tie up a tenth of their payroll for the next 4 years on a free agent pitcher – then is it unrealistic to want a pitcher that could contribute to a playoff race or series, not just help the team break even in wins and losses?
So far I haven’t heard even his supporters saying that signing Washburn for 4 years improves the Mariners chances of winning a championship while he’s here.
#127: I guess youre right, afterall we have Meche as our 5th starter…
Meche’s career numbers:
GO/AO .88; FIP: 4.96; BB/9:4; K/9: 6; and likely 4 mill after the dust settles if he is tendered…
If by pointless you mean a great idea, I agree….
Re. #111:
As I’ve already mentioned, to make room for Kevin Millwood would force Seattle Mariners VP/GM Bill Bavasi to move starting pitcher Joel Piñeiro ($6,300,000) and closing pitcher Eddie Guardado ($6,500,000) for pitching prospects; the only team with the money and need for both of those guys, unsurprisingly, is the Baltimore Orioles.
Re. Bronson Arroyo & Jeremy Reed:
Who would start at center field if Jeremy Reed is traded elsewhere? Jamal Strong . . . Shin-Soo Choo . . . T.J. Bohn . . . Wladimir Balentien?!?!? Hell, as sad as this may seem, I wouldn’t be shocked if Field Manager Mike Hargrove — who should be fired and replaced by Dan Rohn — sent “Wee” Willie Bloomquist to center field, so that he could embarrass himself throughout the ‘06 season.
Re. Carl Everett:
I blame Chris Doyle Snelling, due to his inability to stay healthy, for the signing of Carl Everett. In similar news, why is Dave Myers, as a coach for the Everett AquaSox, still employeed by the Seattle Mariners?
#130 – Why Guardado? Pineiro and Meche alone make about as much as Millwood will cost next year, and there’s still room in the budget. Trading Pineiro and Meche, or even just one of them, would give us enough room to fit in Millwood.
Also, why do people always act like a player’s inability to stay healthy is some kind of flaw in his character or ability as a player? It’s not like he tried to get injured; he’s just unlucky.
Re. #131:
Gil Meche and Ryan Franklin should be non-tendered and sent off into free agency.
Rafael Soriano, as a closer, is younger and would cost less than Eddie Guardado; in addition, right-hander J.J. Putz and left-hander George Sherrill would probably be productive, cost-effective setup men.
I’m not saying trading Guardado isn’t necessarily a good idea, I just said it’s not necessary for acquiring Millwood.
Non-tendering Meche would remove the 4 million from my prior payroll figure, making it that much easier to sign Millwood.
Man, get over the Dave Myers thing. Staggering fact is that most runners unwisely waved on still pop and play the next inning. There might be more to coaching than that.
Baseball Prospectus translated career stats:
Millwood:
8.2 H/9IP
6.5 K/9IP
2.3 BB/9IP
0.8 HR/9IP
3.64 ERA
Washburn:
8.2 H/9IP
5.1 K/9IP
2.4 BB/9IP
1.0 HR/9IP
3.62 ERA
#131: Nobody’s saying getting injured is a character flaw, unless it can be causally related to poor conditioning or training habits. Getting injured frquently, however, makes you less valuable (i.e., Bobby Madtrisch). Chris Snelling, at this point in his career, probably hasn’t lost any of his wonderful and wide-ranging offensive skills … but his injury history is such that I bet he could taken off the 40-man roster and sneaked through waivers. (Not that I’d take the risk, though.)
#135: Not that it tells the whole story, but that different in K rate is very significant.
difference
Ok, I’m calming down a bit, but I’m standing on my last leg here. The only way this makes sense is if Bavasi brings in Millwood still. If they actually paid out the full budget, (I believe Armstrong is quoted as saying the upper limit on the budget is actually 99M and the Ms apparently only count 75% of incentives against the payroll, not 100%), they can afford him, especially by non-tendering Franklin and Meche. I can live with a Millwood, Washburn addition to the rotation. That’s a competitive team.
But, I’d still have a nagging question about why if he had to take two pitchers from Boras why he didn’t pick Weaver instead of Washburn, but whatever.
Also, maybe it is only for 30M guarenteed.
Also, maybe he fails the physical.
There’s some light out there still.
What is your theory about why Bavasi is making these moves? You must atttribute him with a modicum of baseball knowledge. Is it that he is just an idiot? Or does he know something we don’t.
#140: my theory is…
A. Bavasi believes he is making the team better
or
B. Lincoln believes Bavasi is making season ticket sales pick up… afterall, the M’s just added 23 hr and 87 rbis AND an ERA of 3.2. What more could fans ask?
141. A Banner.
Tom:
Washburn could be a good pitcher
Except that there’s no reason to believe that he has the skills that might make him a good pitcher.
Everett is pretty self-explanatory, he could easily hit 20 HR and have 80 RBIs next year. But he could also catch “senior citizen-itus” and have a crappy year
Except, of course, that Everett managed to have a crappy year while hitting 20 HR and accruing 80 RBI. So even his ceiling involves him being crappy – that makes him worse than useless.
Did Bavsi overpay Washburn: Yes, a solid number 2 or 3 starter like him with a bad health history is not supposed to be paid $9 million per year
Why do you think he’s a “solid number 2 or 3 starter”? Washburn’s fragility means he’s not even an adequate innings eater, and even healthy he’s a back of the rotation guy at best.
if [Washburn]’s healthy, he’s a solid pickup
No, he’s not. Washburn’s a guy who shows no evidence of being a capable pitcher beyond being left handed and being overly lucky last year. Washburn’s a terrible pick-up, and one I wouldn’t pay $2 million for more than one season.
#143: Evan:
#135 said:
Baseball Prospectus translated career stats:
Millwood:
8.2 H/9IP
6.5 K/9IP
2.3 BB/9IP
0.8 HR/9IP
3.64 ERA
Washburn:
8.2 H/9IP
5.1 K/9IP
2.4 BB/9IP
1.0 HR/9IP
3.62 ERA
I dunno….that seems like an argument….id be interested in reading the argument behind your conclusions….
Career numbers are far less important than recent-season “trend” numbers. Millwood’s numbers aren’t declining. Washburn’s are.
What Washburn and Millwood did at the beginning of their careers means nothing. At this point in time, Millwood collects more groundballs while striking out roughly two more batters per game than Washburn does. That’s a pretty significant difference.
Or what Jim said.
I can’t believe what passes for theory on this blog. It should be obvious to all that Washburn is Boras’ reward for the Beltre deal….
Thanks for the great breakdown. I’m new to your site, but love the info you are sharing here.
My question is this: Is there any statistically significant measure of what i might call “pitching wisdom” — or the “Jaime Moyer Factor.” Specifically, is there any way to tell whether some pitchers might get better with age, as the become more “crafty,” the media’s favorite word for Moyer?
What if Washburn’s best year occured because he is getting wiser with age, learning better how to pitch, how to approach hitters, and how to reach down deeper when runners are on base? As far as a pitcher goes, i’d much prefer his last year be his best before coming to the M’s, rather than 3 or 4 or more years ago.
Said one other way: Is it possible that his most recent year of effectiveness might hold greater predictive weight for the future than his first or second year in the league?
Glenn R. is really asking if it is possible to quantify the human factor?
1) Is it possible that Washburn adheres to the dogma of “let your defense” work for you when nobody is on, but set batters up and “make them hit your pitch” when runners are on?
2) Or, has Washburn learned to focus when the stakes are higher?
#149: My opinion is that Jamie Moyer is so anomalous — so one-of-a-kind — that he offers no predictive significance when it comes to evaluating anyone else. It’s so rare that one just learns how to pitch in his early 30s.
Look at his comparables list, according to Baseball Reference … the most-comparable pitcher has a very low score of comparability.
The list is topped by Orel Hershiser, Kenny Rogers, Milt Pappas, Bob Welch, David Wells, Frank Viola and Kevin Brown … none of whom impresses one as being anything much like Jamie Moyer.
To my mind, the closest there has been is someone like Jimmy Key, but Key succumbed to injuries in his age 37 year (that, and he was pretty damned good from the start of his career). Or maybe Frank Tanana, who reinvented himself as a finesse pitcher after blowing out his flameballing arm early in his career. Tanana’s career ended at age 39, but there’s no reason other than his own choices and a soft market for him not to have continued on indefinitely.
Every soft-tossing lefty out there gets compared to Jamie Moyer. But there’s only one Moyer out there, and there’s a reason for it. Remember Dave Fleming? Soft-tossing lefty, so-so stuff, had a few good years … but couldn’t counter-adapt with a credible out pitch once the league figured him out. Dave Fleming is just 36 years old, but hasn’t pitched in the majors in a decade.
Baseball history is weed-common with Dave Flemings and John Cummingses and George Glinatses.
But there’s only one Jamie Moyer, and because of that, you can’t credibly compare anybody to him, or credibly project anybody to be like him.
Rather than expending all this energy trying to convert the ‘ERA roolz’ folks, better to spend some energy getting some money bets down with them about Washburn’s performance next year. No sense arguing when you can actually invest in the future.
Maybe Washburn is getting all that money to pay his per diem as the road half of the Moyer/Washburn platoon? After all, Washburn’s road splits would be an extraordinary compliment to Moyer’s home splits…
Jamie Moyer in his worst years hits a 2.0 K/BB rate, and he’s mostly in the ~2.5 range. Washburn is around 2. It’s a significant difference.
#143 – Is there another Tom? I never said Washburn was good.
Here’s a fun game: Guess the PECOTA.
I’m going to say his 5-year VORP forcast (which is going to be oh so grusomely relevant to us now
) will look like this:
06: 22
07: 12
08: 8
09: 6
Kevin Millwood, ERA +
2005: 143
2004: 90
2003: 103
2002: 127
2001: 102
2000: 100
Average: 111
Washburn, ERA +
2005: 131
2004: 99
2003: 96
2002: 138
2001: 126
2000: 133
Average: 120
Washburn’s game is ideally suited to Safeco Field. He is a good control lefty who induces lots of fly balls to the cavernous center and left of the Safe.
This is not a bad signing. We do need one more, though. The Millwood guy would be good, too.
#157: Um … who’s going to catch all those fly balls to left and center?
Is there any chance we might be still attempting to sign Millwood as well?
I know all of the budget numbers and such, but is there any chance that the Mariners might realize that Washburn + Everett does not equal a quality offseason?
Jim, I think fans in the CF bleachers and in the standing area behind the bullpen will catch quite a few of them.
I’ll probably post this again somewhere else in a thread that isn’t so ungodly long already that most people haven’t moved on, but, here’s an interesting fact for the “Angels Stadium Ruined Washburn” crowd:
Go pick up a copy of the 2006 Hardball Times Annual. Turn to Dave Studenmund’s “They Play in Parks” article. Flip over to the comment about the Angels home park.
Edison Field and Safeco Field have nearly identical effects on flyballs. Just like Safeco, Edison significantly reduces the amount of hits on outfield flies.
In other words, Washburn just spent his career in a park perfectly suited to his abilities. And he was terrible there.
By the way, I wouldn’t hate this signing if it was for 3 years at $6m or $7m per. A league average lefty in Safeco who eats innings is worth something as a decent #3 on the staff (with someone else slotting in behind the King at #2). Byrd only got 2 years at about $7m per, and handedness is about all that separates Byrd from Washburn. 4 years, $40m is exceptionally poor.
Something for everyone to consider, that noone has even mentioned could be a VERY likely possibility…is the signing bonus issue with Washburn. The Seattle Times reported this morning that of Washburn offer is a 4yr offer in the $30-38M range, AND THEN stated:
“which might include a signing bonus”.
Bavasi was very aggresive last year with the Sexson signing, with a very low salary for Sexson in 2005, so that they could sign another big bat with either Delgado and/or Beltre. Sexson took the low salary in 2005 ($4.5M), so that the M’s could entice Beltre to sign with us with a HUGE upfront signing bonus. With Sexson getting his in 2006. Bavasi was VERY creative, and Sexson was VERY flexible, because he knew Seattle wanted to add another bat to protect him in the lineup.
Well, it’s no different this offseason, but it’s on a pitching basis.
What’s interesting about all of this is that Boras wanted a 5yr contract for Washburn (shooting high), and teams offering were ONLY offering 3yr deals. I was figuring Washburn would probably hit in the $9M range, especially considering what Kenny Rogers & Loaiza got. BUT I bet to get that 4th year Bavasi is using leverage on two different fronts:
1. Giving Washburn that extra year, puts Bavasi in the drivers seat to arrange a signing bonus (like Sexsons), so that the M’s can pay a low salary to Washburn in 2006 in order to land Millwood. The Seattle Times hinted to a signing bonus this morning. There would be no need to work a signing bonus in a a 4yr deal with Washburn UNLESS Bavasi had major other plans…similiar to what he did last year.
2. Now, with the above creativity, he could be working all along with Boras to get BOTH Millwood & Washburn signed, but to get it done Washburn would have to take a signing bonus that would be paid out in 2007. Doing this would still actually make Seattle front runners for a Millwood signing!!!
Now the question…Why would Seattle give Washburn a low salary in 2006, with a HUGE salary in 2007 that would include the entire signing bonus?…
Wouldn’t that limit what Seattle could spend next offseason…giving them nothing for FA signings next year?
Nope!
Bavasi would be looking ahead to next year’s available money. Think about the available money coming off the books after 2006:
$6.00M Sexson’s Signing Bonus
$6.50M Moyer
$6.25M Guaradado
$4.25M Ibanez
$6.30M Pineiro
$0.25M Wiki’s Buyout in 2006
$0.30M Pokey’s Buyout in 2006
$0.33M Shiggy’s Buyout in 2006
$3.10M Spiezio
$33.2M Coming off the books after 2006
Now, here’s the question: What will we “need” next offseason?
1. Our bullpen is one of the 4 best bullpens in MLB. Putz should EASILY be able to step in as closer in 2007 for CHEAP.
2. If we keep Reed in CF, and with Johjima @ catcher, we will have the BEST defensive team in all of MLB! The ONLY semi-weakness would be LF defense, but Ibanez contract will expire anyways, so that will be one spot to fill next offseason and they will look at another power LHB with good defense next year. I would bet Seattle brings up Clement to be backup Catcher/DH for minimum, and we will no doubt have Everett in 2007 for LF with Choo/Jones on the bench.
Doing the above would give Seattle the ENTIRE $$$ next offseason to deal with more pitching!
3. We will need to add add’l pitching, because we would have only 3 pitchers committed to contracts in 2007:
Millwood
Felix
Washburn
“If” Moyer has a good year in 2006, he “could” end up signing ONE MORE year, and I would bet money that it would be at least $2M cheaper in 2007.
Just look at all the pitchers that will hit the FA market next offseason. It will DEFINITELY be a buyers market next year:
2007 FA RHPs:
Paul Wilson (Team Option)
Wade Miller
Jon Garland
Tomo Ohka
Gil Meche
Kevin Jarvis
Greg Maddux
Brian Moehler
Jason Schmidt
Jeff Suppan
Rick Helling
Woody Williams
Brad Radke
Kerry Wood (Mutual Option)
Mike Mussina (Team Option)
Cory Lidle
Kelvim Escobar
Chan Ho Park
Jose Contreras
Ryan Franklin
Orlando Hernandez
Jaret Wright (Team + Player Void options)
Kip Wells
Jason Marquis
Vicente Padilla
Adam Eaton
Tim Wakefield (Annual Team Renew Option)
2007 FA LHPs:
Ted Lilly
Mark Redman
Tom Glavine
Jamie Moyer
Andy Pettitte
Mark Mulder
Barry Zito
Doug Davis
Randy Wolf
Mark Buerhle (Team Option)
David Wells
Wilson Alvarez (Retired)
Darrell May
Eric Milton (Void Option)
Not counting potential trade partners!
My point?
We will have an abundance of offseason money next offseason to NOT ONLY fill our pitching needs, and offense “if” they choose, BUT ALSO enough to pay Washburn’s ENTIRE signing bonus out of!!!
A TON of LF/OFers hitting the market too, but here are just a few intriguing names:
Luis Gonzalez, Bonds, Cliff Floyd, Carlos Lee, Ibanez, Sheffield, Shannon Stewart, Jay Gibbons
_________________________________________________
I will bet money that Bavasi will sign BOTH Millwood & Washburn within the next 2 weeks. And will run with this rotation:
1. Millwood
2. Washburn
3. Felix
4. Moyer
5. Pineiro
Our ONLY “if’s” in 2006 would be all towards our offense…”If” Beltre finally adjusts to AL pitching, “If” Beltre finds his groove, “If” Reeds pulls it together offensively, “If” Johjima adjusts to MLB pitching quickly, “If” YuBet improves offensively, “If” Lopez finds his groove.
Sorry for the long post, but I thought I’d throw a different angle, a Washburn “signing bonus”, into consideration! Bavasi proved pretty creative to get BOTH Sexson & Beltre signed last year by using signing bonus’, I’m sure he’s got the same kind of plan get his needs filled this year.
Remember what Bavasi stated publicly last week after the Everett signing? “Now our focus is Pitching, Pitching, and MORE Pitching!”
#163 – All of that was based on the times saying there “might” be a siging bonus, and a Bavasi interview where he said “pitching” three times? Maybe you are right, but thats an awful lot of speculation.
I would guess that Washburn has 1 above average season and 3 below average seasons for this contract. I don’t like this signing, but I hope the numbers are closer to 30 million than 38.
Chris:
Again with the ERA. ERA has very little predictive value, even when you package it up as ERA+. All you’re doing is pointing to Washburn’s past performance pitching in a significant pitchers’ park (Anaheim).
Southpaw:
I think we’ll be lucky to see a 22 VORP out of Washburn in 2006.
To read most of the comments you would swear Bavasi is attempting to put together a 140 loss team. The Everett move is very minor if the guy flames out, so what he’s gone by the all-star break. If he takes a liking to Safeco’s left field & supplies a much needed spark to this club it could be a great signing who knows.
At this time last year Sexson looked like a crazy signing blew his shoulder out checking his swing, I seem to remember reading a some pretty ugly stuff…and this Beltre guy what a steal that was that looked like a lock to be the deal of the year……….I guess things don’t always turn out like you think.
Bavasi couldn’t guess Beltre wouldn’t hit, who thought Pinerro & Meche would be that bad, and the hitters would get old like turning a light switch off, I don’t think you can pin point that with statistics or anything else short of a weje board.
I see some upside for this team & see a line-up of Ichiro Reed Ibanez Sexson Beltre Everett Jimbo (japanese Catcher) Lopez Betancourt. You get some developement out of Reed Lopez & Yuni a bounce back season from Ichiro & Beltre, solid years from Jimbo & Everett and presto you’ve got a well balanced hitting ball club.
Washburn the guy looks like a pretty solid pitcher he’s not a bargain but I guess if you are expecting to get one this year……. You mix him in with Felix & Moyer you have to like your chances 3/5 days. Out of Franky Pinero & Meche somebody has to make it happen.
Ah the Bull pen if there’s a reason for optimism that’s it Sorriano Putz Eddy Mateo Sherrill. You mix in Carvahal, Livingston, Atchinson, Thornton, Nageotte, & Blackley you’ve got some nice young arms.
I’m looking for 06 to be a year where they crawl out of the cellar & with some luck contend in the west.
163, Sounds good except the part about Everett in LF for 2007. One more time folks the SoDoMoFo can no longer play acceptable defense. Kind of like Bernie Williams.
And about those K/9 numbers…
Looking at just 2005, Millwood has 6.84 K/9. Washburn had 4.77.
Of the 306 pitchers who threw at least 50 innings, Millwood ranked 112. Other pitchers near him in the rankings included Mike Mussina, Dan Haren, Roy Halladay, and Roy Oswalt.
Washburn ranked 256 of 306. Other pitchers ranked near him included Jaret Wright, Jamie Moyer, Ismael Valdez, and Sidney Ponson.
Hmm. Roy Halladay, or Sidney Ponson. Which would you prefer?
And Jeff (the other Jeff), I still think the Sexson signing was unnecessarily risky, and that the Beltre signing was great. That they haven’t worked out that way is not evidence that anyone was wrong about them.
Only new evidence available at the time of the signings could change my mind about them.
Re: 162 (Matt Staples)
I agree with you underlying point. I’d go further and say that even 4yrs at 32M isn’t the end of the world.
Here’s my rationale: Washburn will be roughly average at 32, 33, 34, and 35. Pitchers are much less of a sure thing than hitters (See, e.g., fantasy baseball strategy), but we can guarantee that the Washburn slot will not be Ryan Franklin bad for any of the next four years. League average is much sexier if it is available for $5 million per or less, but league average is still miles above replacement level when it comes to starting pitching.
Other bonuses, hopefully a rotation with Moyer and Washburn in it will not require a third lefty. This means we can avoid the trap of Reed for Arroyo.
Our rotation would be
Moyer
Felix
Washburn
Pineiro
Prospect (Meche being tendered does not mean he will be in our rotation on opening day)
It isn’t world beating, but it could get us to 85 wins easily.
Then next winter, the M’s buy Daisuke and bring forward another prospect for a sexy setup like this:
Felix
Dice
Washburn
Nageotte
Barzado
That, my friends, could win a series.
Alright, I drank the kool-aid. Sorry.
First of all, concerning the FA pitchers for next winter. You are forgetting that a healthy chunk will get signed to extensions. And furthermore
2007 FA RHPs:
Paul Wilson (Team Option) (sucks)
Wade Miller (injured, career might be done)
Jon Garland (stupidly overpaid)
Tomo Ohka (sucks)
Gil Meche (ha!)
Kevin Jarvis (ha!)
Greg Maddux (will be 40/1)
Brian Moehler (sucks)
Jason Schmidt (old and declining)
Jeff Suppan (sucks)
Rick Helling (a guy I would have LOVED the Ms to sign this year at a BOR guy. Not an answer though)
Woody Williams (He’s still playing?)
Brad Radke (old and overvalued)
Kerry Wood (Mutual Option) (can’t start)
Mike Mussina (Team Option) (old and declining)
Cory Lidle (old)
Kelvim Escobar (can’t stay healthy)
Chan Ho Park (ha!)
Jose Contreras (old)
Ryan Franklin (ha!)
Orlando Hernandez (old and ha!)
Jaret Wright (Team + Player Void options) (gross)
Kip Wells (eh)
Jason Marquis (eh)
Vicente Padilla (see Pineiro, Joel)
Adam Eaton (not bad)
Tim Wakefield (Annual Team Renew Option) (pass)
2007 FA LHPs:
Ted Lilly (I like)
Mark Redman (no)
Tom Glavine (no)
Jamie Moyer (he’s like 50)
Andy Pettitte (aging, bad elbow)
Mark Mulder (god no)
Barry Zito (legitimate)
Doug Davis (not bad)
Randy Wolf (eh)
Mark Buerhle (Team Option) (not hitting the market)
David Wells (no)
Wilson Alvarez (Retired) (exactly)
Darrell May (ha!)
Eric Milton (Void Option) (ha!)
Wow, now doesn’t that crop look exciting?
Second, Chris,
Excellent point about Millwood being better. Huh? Oh, you mean you didn’t notice that Washburn’s good year ended 3 seasons ago? Or that Millwood threw more innings in that span? You were making a case for Washburn? Oh…..wow. No.
Evan,
Ryan Franklin had a VORP of about 14 in 2005. If Washburn doesn’t put up at least 22 in 2006 than I hope you find something else to hold your attention for the three years following.
PGM,
If Bavasi traded for Arroyo to get a third lefty in the rotation, then I think he’d be certifibly insane. Arroyo is a righty.
Dangit, Southpaw, you’re right, of course.
I guess we still live in fear of bad cornrows.
#161, Dave, that conveniently ignores any possible reason why. You also conveniently ignore the “small sample size” crack you made earlier.
Come on, if you guys are going to rip on Washburn, at least explain that point. Again, generic park factors explain some things. They don’t necessarily explain everything.
Road record is an interesting stat precisely because a) playing on the road usually hurts players and b) it’s an amalgam of park effects other than the player’s home park, so it’s a fair test of how a guy plays in a random “neutral” park.
For a guy like Washburn who has only played at home in one place his entire career, it’s entirely possible his game is shaped poorly for Anaheim. Do I know why? No. Neither apparently, do you, other than making snide remarks.
And I’m damned if I’ll go spend money buying a copy of something because you’re too lazy to even summarize the key point.
And, oh, by the way, just so you know, it’s entirely possible to be disappointed at the Everett and potential Washburn signings, yet still be ALSO (even more) disappointed at the “Waaaah!, the Mariners aren’t doing what I wanted” tone of the site this past week.
And that goes for not just the authors, but the fanboys out there.
Polo Grounds:
How on earth can you “guarantee that the Washburn slot won’t be Ryan Franklin-bad for any of the next for years”?
Southpaw:
I know it’s notyour point, but I would take Tim Wakefield every year until his arm develps liver spots. Love that dude. And love the kind of advantage his versatility gives your staff and manager.
If I was a GM I would always try very hard to get a good knuckleballer on my team.
I think Wasburn’s far less durable than Franklin. Since VORP is a counting stat… you do the math.
“If I was a GM I would always try very hard to get a good knuckleballer on my team.”
Absolutely. I bet most GMs would agree with you. Makes you realize just how hard it is to throw the pitch effectively as there’s only one knuckleballer in the league…
#163’s right.
There’s also a selection bias that prevents knuckleballers from reaching the majors. A good knuckleballer exhibits none of the traits that scouts like. They don’t look big and strong. They don’t throw hard. They don’t change speeds a lot. They’re not left-handed.
Also, historically minor-league knuckleballers aren’t significantly better than they are in the majors: essentially, if there was a 21-year old Wakefield in the minors, he’d put up a 38-year old Wakefield-in-the-majors line.
They don’t put up the kind of gaudy K rates a standard prospect does, but they’re no less valuable, because major league hitters aren’t any better hitting a knuckler than a minor league one is.
If that makes sense.
For what it is worth, the ESPN profile on Washburn says that he dislikes the mound at Angel stadium.
Surely that’s ESPN’s way of saying ‘He doesn’t pitch well there?’
I still say its those freaky monkees….the only thing more unsettling than a bunch of rally monkees would have to be a bunch of clowns… scary stuff…
hmmmm…ya have 4 arms in the toation (assuming JW signs) and most here think JP and JW suck and well Moyer aint getting younger. But out of a list of 30-40 arms that could be added after next year, not a single one of them would be an upgrade? I guess the M’s the only thing for the M’s to do is slash payroll…..
Times is reporting that we’re trying to pry Lester or Papelbon from the Sox in the Reed trade. While I assume this is highly unlikely, it’s nice to see the M’s attempting to use some leverage after the Nomar signing (taking Crisp out of the picture). I wouldn’t mind seeing a King-Lester 1-2 punch in the future rotaion. A boy can dream . . .
[deleted extremely long URL pasted as text]
McGrath weighs in on the “Washburn?!? story
186. It’s more than unlikely. It’s impossible. Short of the one guy on the Mariners’ roster whom they would never trade to anyone and your right fielder, there’s no one the Sox would take in return for Lester or Papelbon.
I sort of figure, like you, that that rumor is Bavasi trying to reset the negotiating parameters by asking for something higher so that a lesser demand won’t seem unreasonable.
#189. it’s also possible that Finny is just wrong
Is it wrong that I am hoping that Washburn will fail his physical?
Who really cares if Angels Stadium favors pitchers or hitters? It obviously doesn’t favor Jarrod Washburn.
In 538 IP at Angel Stadium, Jarrod Washburn has amassed an ERA 1.28 points higher than his road ERA. That’s not an aberration – the sample size is too big to ignore. The reason for this is pretty ovious. Its the longball. Washburn’s K rates remain fairly consistent homa and away. But his HR rate is 1.33 per nine at home and 1.02 per nine on the road.
Dave Studenmund may suggest that the flyball action is the same in Safeco as it is in LA, but that I’m betting that Washburn’s HR rate drops to something a lot closer to his road rate when he pitches in Seattle. Bavasi’s making the same bet.
Fine slim…
For the sake of argument, let’s assume the variation between Washburn’s home and road ERA is stastically significant (which I am not sure it is). How do you know this variation represents a park effect rather than the consequence of exhaustion from banging Anahiem groupies? Simply put,no matter how you parse the data you cannot identify Edision field as causative. Pointing to home runs does not suffice. Why would Edison effect Washburn uniquely but spare every other flyball pitcher
Did anybody else notice something extremely wrong with McGrath’s story-
http://www.thenewstribune.com/sports/mariners/story/5407483p-4885775c.html
(hint – look at the contract numbers)
#193 – What baseball stat can stand up to the groupie-banging theory?
All pitchers are not created equal. All flyball pitchers are not created equal. And I’m willing to bet Washburn is not the only flyball pitcher to have struggles there. But I’m not willing to look it up.
Fact remains that Washburn is better on the road than he is at home. I can’t explain it, you can’t explain it, no one seems to be able to.
But I’m betting right now that Safeco Field will be a lot kinder to him than Angel Stadium. Most of our female groupies are in the 40s and 50s.
Have the details of the signing come out yet? I have heard anything from 30 to 36 over 4 years. Lets hope it is closer to 30 million over 4 years. Washburn for 7.5 a year in this market is a little easier to deal with, for me atleast. Now one thing that I see as a ray of hope envolving this signing is on espn’s scoutig profile they say he is trusting his average curve and change a bit more doing a better job of keeping hitters off balance, which is what he needs to do with the loss of velocity on his fastball. It is not out of the realm of possibility that he could be becoming a better “pitcher” as he gets older. Putting him on the same bench with the king of getting more for less and keeping hitters off balance in Jamie Moyer can only help considering he has the right attitude and work ethic, hopefully they talk and talk alot about that part of the game. He is losing velocity but maybe he is becoming a better pitcher because he can’t rely on his fastball like he use to be able to. Anyway numbers are great but guys have shown to get better with age simply by changing there aproach in how they apply there craft, ie….throwers becoming pitchers etc. Anyway I am hoping we get him for closer to 7m a year and he will continue to learn to change his speeds. The only thing that really bothers me is that tendanitus in his shoulder they were talking about on espn, which scares me a bit. Heres to hoping we get a break and get a pleasant surprise out of this signing.
#194, yeah, he tried to be funny with all the confusing equivocation from his imaginary position of defending the Mariners, but to me the comedy didn’t outweigh the general confusion.
Please do not lose your collective heads without consideration to Washburn’s splits. He is more effective against left handed bats and Safeco is a pitchers park with the exception of left handed power hitters.
Does anybody have a fielding zone chart for hits? It would be interesting to see what he gives up in the power alleys against right handers. With the larger power alleys at Safeco, this would also help his results.
Yeahhhhhhhhhh, that was kinda the point of the story?
4 years for $38 million! Hello Seattle!
199, fair enough, but I wasn’t feeling it. Not a bad idea, but writing in a confusing way, even if it’s intentionally just for the sake of being confusing, even if it’s mirroring confusing logics in the real world like the Mariners front office, still has to be held to a standard of quality. And I’m not saying it was god-awful or anything, or that he never should have pursued the idea, just that I don’t think the piece really worked. And that I was sympathetic that the other guy’s confusion, that’s all.
Understood.
BTW, fringe sources (not media) are saying the Reed-Arroyo deal is done. Contigent upon Damon signing elsewhere.
HELL NO TO BRONSON ARROYO!!!!
yeah, I just finished reading the story. When I first saw the 3.8 million for four years I figured that McGrath was just extremely stupid and the article wasn’t worth reading. My bad.
that’s why he is a columnist, not a reporter….
“The Sox did speak with the Mariners about outfielder Jeremy Reed, but the Mariners have little interest in Arroyo or Clement.”
http://redsox.bostonherald.com/redSox/view.bg?articleid=117476
Awesome!
Anyone know what Mat Olkin is paid to do? Or is he just paid for the right to use his name when talking to the media?
I hope the 9-headed GM monster in Boston didn’t laugh out loud when/if Bavasi asked for Lester or Papelbon. That makes Bavasi look positively Chuck LaMarr-esque.
Mark my word the worst pickup of the winter will be the catcher from japan.There are alot of concerns about a broken ankle a year ago a pulled hamstring 1/2 a year ago and yes you heard it hear first the s…… word..yes the juice is alive and well in japan also.
If the M’s give up Jeremy Reed for Bronson Arroyo, does this become a stronger contender for worst offseason ever by a team? Or at least maybe worst M’s offseason?
I can’t believe they’re even considering it. I just hope it’s not true.
209: idiot
210: Does Reed for Arroyo constitute as the worst offseason ever? Yes. I hope the rumors aren’t true since the deal severely hinders the Mariners; yet, one should never underestimate Bavasi’s . . . er . . . “creative thinking.â€
Is it possible that there’s something fishy going on here–as there supposedly was when A-ROD signed with Texas. (”You sign Alex for ten years at $252 million, and I’ll get you PENA next year.”)
You sign WASHBURN for four years at $36 million, and I’ll…
Hopefully Damon will just sign with Boston before anything else crazy happens. He obviously loves the media attention he gets there, so I think he and the Sox will get around to a deal.
I go back and forth on the Clement deal, and I like Arroyo ok, but I just can’t see wasting Reed on him, even if Reed doesn’t end up developing like we hope. I’d be willing to put up with a stopgap for a while until Jones is ready I guess, and if we were guaranteed good-Clement I might go for that, but it just seems too risky to me. So I guess I’m hoping that’s it for the offseason (barring some Millwood-related-miracle). Or a Guardado-related trade.
From Jonah Keri,
“Reed posted a .252 EqA in a supposedly terrible year–you need to take Safeco into account rather than just glancing at his raw stats. Meanwhile he posted a season that was roughly league-average defensively according to BP’s metrics, and has been rated as above average by some othber sources. This was in his FIRST full season, as a 24-year-old? Do people really expect rookies to perform like Pujols? Reed plays a premium defensive position effectively, he’s got a good minor league track record, he’s dirt cheap and young.
I actually like Matt Clement and think he’d be a fantastic addition for the Mariners. But if Reed merely follows a normal growth curve, he’ll peak around a .280-.290 EqA, which is excellent for a CF. If he takes any kind of significant step up beyond the normal growth curve, we could be talking about a .300 EqA guy with plus defense in center. That’s a slam dunk All-Star.”
I wouldn’t trade Reed for Clement AND Arroyo, much less either of them.
Bronson Arroyo to the Mariners?! Hopefully not, or else get ready for endless, nauseating renditions of Arroyo’s hit CD “Dirty Water” being played on Mariners broadcasts.
I’ve said this a million times. I’ll say it again, and still no-one will listen. If more than 3 of the so-called statistical analysts involved in baseball research actually had a grounding or training in statistics, I wouldn’t need to keep repeating it…
Can you clarify that? The way I’m reading it is very counter intuitive.
#216 – Really? Something doesn’t correlate to itself? It’s pretty obvious that whoever wrote that meant that yearly ERA has a high variance. But thanks for nit-picking and making yourself feel smart.
And I can assure you that a lot more than “3 of the so-called statistical analysts” involved in baseball reasearch have training in statistics.
Well, a key domino just tumbled toward a Jeremy Reed trade.
Nomar Garciaparra agreed to terms with the Dodgers, meaning that Cleveland is now more likely to hang on to Coco Crisp instead of dealing him for Matt Clement or Bronson Arroyo. That means that if the Johnny Damon talks fall apart, the Red Sox may be scope-locked on Jeremy. And with fewer center field options available to Boston, the Mariners just may be able to extort a little more than Bronson Pinchot … er, “Balki” Arroyo.
Well, let’s see. If we sign trade Reed for Arroyo and sign Preston Wilson and Washburn, here’s what some of our major offseason moves will be:
- signing a 30 year old C to a 3 year deal
- resigning a 42 year old SP and a 35 year old RP
- adding a 35 year old DH with injury history
- replacing a 24 year old CF with a 30 year old CF
- signing a 31 year old P with injury history
Am I the only person thinking this sounds like an offseason you’d expect the Baltimore Orioles to do? I mean, wow- pretty much almost every move managed to add age on the wrong side of 30 to a team that lost 90+ games (with the exception of the Torrealba deal + getting Arroyo back, hypothetically)… and part of the reason for those teams losing 90+ games? Too many old players.
You have to wonder- did these guys learn NOTHING from the last few years?
As I said, being the main reason I was so upset at the Everett signing, no, it appears they have learned precious little if anything at all.
#216 So, you’re not happy with year-to-year correlation as a measure of the predictive abilities of a statistic. What test would be more appropriate?
So, let me get this straight. You guys think a good flyball pither at safeco is a bad idea. He fits perfectly. He has played in the saem league so he knows the hitters. He knows the ins and outs of teh Angels. He is good. Sure washburn is not better than Millwood, but what if Millwood does not want to come to the Mariners, who else ya gonna get.
So, let me get this straight. You guys think a good flyball pither at safeco is a bad idea. He fits perfectly. He has played in the saem league so he knows the hitters. He knows the ins and outs of teh Angels. He is good. Sure washburn is not better than Millwood, but what if Millwood does not want to come to the Mariners, who else ya gonna get.
Some of you guys are going to give up on a 24 year old prospect, and get a old player in the decline of his career. Not to be mean, but thats plain, down right STUPID.
220- So you dont like the Moyer signing?!!!!!!!!!!
The Moyer, Guardado and Johjima signings are potentially OK, but the problem is when you start putting them in the context of the entire 2005-2006 offseason, you start seeing a rather bad trend- pretty much every free agent/resigning is someone on the wrong side of 30, being signed to a team that desperately needs talent infusions of young players to establish a base to work with for a multiyear run at contention, as opposed to one-off deals that fix problems for a year on an established team (stuff you see 90+ win teams do more often).
(Some of this goes away if the Arroyo/Reed deal goes away, of course, or if we get an alternative that doesn’t inivolve Preston Wilson).
Baltimore is Prosecution Exhibit A as to why this strategy doesn’t work. They’ve been trying this strategy of going from a Gillick-led contender to a nonentity for 8 years, and what it nets them is a 70-80 win team that always has major problems getting over any kind of a hump, but pays premium money for the privilege of being bad to mediocre.
Again, that’s not to say some of the individual decisions have some merit- but I look at the sum total of this offseason and it’s $85 million of disappointment.
That should read: “Again, that’s not to say some of the individual decisions don’t have some merit…”
Joran:
He is good.
No, he’s not. There is no evidence that Washburn is good.