Bronson Arroyo
Because those annoying Reed-for-Arroyo rumors won’t go away, I figured I’d do a quick explanation of why such a trade would be a terrible idea. One in a long series of terrible ideas, unfortunately.
Arroyo is actually a similar, though right-handed, pitcher to Jarrod Washburn, who we’ve discussed to death the past few days. Their overall profile is very similar.
Extreme flyball pitcher. 30 percent of the batters Washburn faced hit outfield flies, 9th most out of 216 MLB pitchers who faced at least 300 batters. He’s a more extreme flyball pitcher than every Mariner except Julio Mateo (the most extreme flyball pitcher in the majors).
Slightly above average walk rate. In fact, his percentage of batters faced that drew walks (7.75%) is almost identical to Roger Clemens (7.76%). Command isn’t a big problem for Arroyo. He throws strikes.
Pitch-to-contact starter. He struck out 11.38% of the batters he faced. Ryan Franklin’s mark was 11.16%, for comparison. Among those same 216 pitchers with at least 300 batters faced, Arroyo ranks 196th in strikeout rate.
Essentially, Arroyo has one skill; throw the ball over the plate. He doesn’t miss bats, and he doesn’t induce groundballs. He’s a use-your-defense guy who relies on his outielders to run down an awful lot of balls in the gaps and hopes that his flyballs don’t leave the yard too often.
It’s not a reliable package, as Franklin should have taught the organization. In cases where the team’s outfield defense is spectacular, and when matched with the right park, these guys can be superficially useful, as Franklin was in 2003 and Aaron Sele was in 2001. But their shelf life is short, and they’re surviving on the backs of their more talented teammates.
To make matters even worse, to acquire Arroyo and his flyball proclivities, the M’s would have to part with Jeremy Reed, who, at worst, is able to cover center field competently (I’m not sold on him being a great defensive CF yet, but he’s clearly not bad). In replacing Reed, the M’s would almost certainly have to settle for a defensive downgrade, whether it be Willie Bloomquist, Preston Wilson, or pretty much any other available center fielder. If you like the idea of replacing Reed on the open market, you may want to ask yourself why the Yankees, who are currently starting Bubba Crosby in CF, looked at these same options and said “no thanks”.
So, remove Reed from CF and replace him with Bloomquist, for instance. Now you have an outfield defense of Ibanez (average to poor), Bloomquist (poor), and Ichiro (great). Not exactly Winn-Cameron-Ichiro. In order to succeed, Arroyo requires fantastic defensive outfielders behind him. In order to acquire Arroyo, we have to remove a big part of what would be the team’s outfield defense. Not exactly the best way to make sure Arroyo’s strengths are maximized, is it?
If the M’s are determined to have a veteran pitch-to-contact innings sponge at the back of the rotation, Arroyo isn’t even superior to Jason Johnson. Johnson, a free agent, is basically a groundball version of Arroyo. Throws strikes, doesn’t miss bats, but induces groundballs instead of flyballs. Oh, and he doesn’t cost us Jeremy Reed.
Ideally, the M’s would just get over their hangup with marginal starters who depend on their defense for their value and actually acquire pitchers with some real talent, but that apparently is asking too much. So, in the vein of lowered expectations, I’m simply asking that if the M’s are going to pay several million for a replacement level contact pitcher, let’s make it the guy who doesn’t cost us Jeremy Reed, okay?
Please.
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176 Responses to “Bronson Arroyo”
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Ryan Franklin it is.
Should we as M’s fans hope that Damon signs with Boston? The reporting on the Reed-Arroyo rumors indicate that such a deal would only be made if Damon signs elsewhere. If this is the case, I hope that Boston breaks the bank for Damon.
Send that the to FO please.
I prefer Reed. CF is a premium position on baseball. And even more with our stadium. We don’t have reposition piece anywhere here or in FA.
I keep checking my glass. Each time I look theres seems to be less then the moment before. The deal of Reed for Arroyo is such a poor deal for Seattle that it must be consumated as nature pulls us into the abyss.
We must be the MLB whipping boys amongst the men of GM’s in the business.
Depressing Stat Of The Day:
44 pitchers in the American League qualified for the ERA title last year. Of those 44 pitchers, here are the bottom 6 in expected Fielding Independant ERA:
39. Jarrod Washburn
40. Jamie Moyer
41. Scott Elarton
42. Bronson Arroyo
43. Ryan Franklin
44. Jose Lima
The M’s made offers to #39 and #41, re-signed #40, are interested in #42, and may offer arbitration to #43.
Ick.
I keep looking at all the stats trying to find ANYTHING that would make it appear that this starting rotation glass would be half full.
Here is an interesting stat:
Last year Arroyo and Washburn both had 20 Quality Starts, followed by Moyer with 19. If Felix can start 30+ I think its a given he’ll get at least 20 QS. Get a decent rebound from Joel and thats a half way stable rotation?
I know QS is not that great of a stat and is totally dependant on run support, but i’m trying to find something out there that gives me a glimmer of hope!
I didn’t like the Everret signing, mainly for baseball reasons, but capped off by “other” reasons.
I don’t like the Washburn signing (if it is official). Too much money for an average pitcher.
If Reed is traded for a bad pitcher, well… I just don’t know.
Where does fandom end and idiocy begin? Are they one and the same?
Where is the Mariners’ “stats guy”, Mat Olkin when all of these potential disaster deals are being discussed? Is he telling them things like “Hey, you might not want to sign Washburn because he sucks. Here are the reasons: …?” And maybe the brass replies, “Yeah, we listened to you on Beltre…”
Dave, I agree with your points think your backing numbers are terrific, but c’mon, how can you not be sold on JR being a great defensive CF? He was nothing less of absolutely solid this past year, which was his first full one to boot. He made some of the best catches in all of baseball and showed consistant range and strong enough arm.
Dave, I agree with your points think your backing numbers are terrific, but c’mon, how can you not be sold on JR being a great defensive CF? He was nothing less than absolutely solid this past year, his first full season, to boot. He made some of the best catches in all of baseball and showed consistant range and a strong enough arm.
Besides, he looks stupid in corn rows. You just can’t pull it off as a white dude unless your a wrestler or a rock star or something…not an average MLB pitcher.
We can’t trade Reed before seeing what he is capable of after a full season under his belt. Its absurd.
I think Reed would be a kick booty left fielder….
Everett, Washburn, trading Reed for Arroyo, tendering Franklin…
Let me be the first to throw this in.
Hickey is back, and claiming the team has had trade offers for Ryan Franklin, which might lead to them tendering him a contract…
I read in the Boston Globe that Seattle wasn’t interested in Arroyo or Clement and instead wanted Papelbon or Lester. I imagine Seattle would have to offer something more than just Reed (Mateo?), but my question is does this make moving Reed palatable?
The possibility of Papelbon or Lester for Reed is interesting.
Papelbon could start in the rotation and looking at his career college and minor league stats could content for ROY. Lester looks like he needs at least one more year in the minors, but he’s a local boy and we know how everyone loves them local boys.
A trade for one of those two could be good for 2007 or 2008 especially if Yubet, Lopes, and Jones develop into legit major leaguers.
I’m interested to think what the experts think?
#16 – That’s very encouraging news. Do you have a link to that article by any chance? I couldn’t find it in the online Globe.
I agree with your points think your backing numbers are terrific, but c’mon, how can you not be sold on JR being a great defensive CF?
Not to speak for Dave, but one of the huge unsolved problems of defensive metrics is making the distinction between park effects and defense. In particular, there may be things about Safeco that make outfielder evaluation through current statistics much harder than we think.
Who in the world would offer us anything for Ryan Franklin? Seriously, you’d need
- a fly-ball friendly outfield defense
- a park with deep fences
- a GM who doesn’t realize you could see what Travis Driskill’s doing and get the same performance for $300k.
Wasburn? Arroyo?
I’d rather send random dreck to Toronto for Batista and plug the rotation with him.
The exact quote from Hickey is truely unbelievable:
Seattle has had trade offers in the past few weeks for Franklin, who eats up plenty of innings even if he doesn’t get much in the way of run support or victories.
Well, I wouldn’t mind if it was Rodrigo Dreck, he’s a live arm stalled in San Antonio, but would you really trade Bojan Mika Dreck? I know it’s only short-season, but that dude hit 15 home runs and 25 doubles in his first pro season.
I’m a Sox fan. One of the odd things about Bronson Arroyo is that he was MUCH more of a strikeout pitcher in 2004. Check the numbers. I bet he dropped 2.5 or 3 K’s per 9 from 2004 to 2005. I think 2 factors were involved. One was that hitters had seen his incredible tracball movement slurve in 2003 and 2004 and were starting to lay off it. The other is that, despite his walks per 9 being pretty good, he had clearly worse command of his out pitch in 2005.
Arroyo’s got guts. They brought him in in relief in ALCS games in 2003 and he was good. He had a bad start in game 3 of the 2004 ALCS when the mfy’s killed most of the Sox pitching staff but he bounced back from it just fine. He was good down the stretch in 2005 as well. He’s ultra skinny and somehow he’s the type of guy who just doesn’t get hurt pitching. There’s value in a guy who will give average results and absorb 200 innings.
The Arroyo of 2004 was better but he’s still cheap and the Mariners do seem to value that when they’re not making Washburn type personnel decisions.
Oh, and the guy’s a serious guitar player. He sings on the side and seems to be partial to grunge style vocals. He’d fit right in.
The Padres?
Seems like you’re pretty eager to give him away…
2004, when viewed in the context of Arroyo’s career, jumps off the page as a fluke. In 1100 minor league innings, his K/9 was 6.94. In 588 major league innings, it’s 5.61, which includes his ‘04 performance.
His ‘04 K/9 of 7.15 was out of line with anything he’d shown for any significant period of time in the past. The fact that it dropped off significantly isn’t a huge surprise.
I thought the M’s hired a stathead advisor last year. What’s the deal with that? Did they brick him up in his office or something?
I am curious… What would you blokes do, short of signing Kevin Milwood, to salvage this offseason? Is it completely hopless or does hope exist to move it from a debacle to merely average
Olkin’s a consultant. He lives in New Jersey. He doesn’t have an office in Seattle. Bavasi solicits advice from him on transactions, but he’s not a member of the front office in the same way that Lee Pelekoudas, Bob Fontaine, Greg Hunter, Jim Na, or Jim Fitzgerald are.
OK, I’ll take the bait …
I’m not a fan of trading Reed for a bottom-feeder like Arroyo, but what makes you say Bloomquist is a “poor” defender in center? Granted he’s no Cameron, but he can run down balls and his glove is better than average.
… fire when ready …
Don’t the bosox have one of the laziest outfields in baseball? Surly, a Jones, Ichiro, Ibanez, can play better D than, a Manny, Damon, Nixon.
Though, I don’t know if it’s worth the trade.
What if Reed was one the people Ichiro talked about just giving up? He seemed to fine in the field but when it came hitting he did not seem to try that hard.
There has to be something going on. Maybe this is a game to get Millwood off his five year high horse?
I have read places where the M’s, after trading Reed, would go after Preston Wilson. As glamourous as it may or may not seem, doing some number crunching, Jeremy Reed is a better all-around centerfielder. Now granted, Wilson might hit you 30 home runs a season, compared to the three Jeremy hit last season, but he also strikes out as much as Sexson at almost one a game per 162 games played. Reed’s average, on base percentage per-162 games is higher, as well as his Range Factor (3.11)(putouts and assists divided by innings played), Zone Rating (.939)(percentage of balls fielded in a player’s typical defensive “zone”) AND Fielding Percentage (.991). Last year, Reed led all centerfielders with a 3.05 Range Factor and with a .943 Zone Rating. So basically, he IS the best defensive centerfielder in running down balls statistically speaking. (Granted Vernon Wells did not commit an error as a centerfielder, but Reed tied for second in Fielding percentage with Aaron Rowand of the ChiSox) As much as I’d love to see us get a P from Boston, to me, Reed is not the answer.
There is no way we are getting Papelbon or Lester.
Preston Wilson?
25HR and 87 RBI. Sounds like somebody they would be interested in.
Bavasi should know that he has leverage over the Red Sox. The Red Sox don’t have a lot of CF options and the Red Sox don’t want to overpay for Damon. So, if Bavasi thinks he is desperate for a pitcher, I hope that he doesn’t ask for too little.
Ask for Marte or Petagine. Both are young prospects with very good potential.
Petagine is like 35.
1. How does Bavasi evaluate pitchers?
USSM decries using ERA but I haven’t seen any speculation about how Bavasi evaluates pitchers.
2. What does the Washburn signing say about the decision making process in the FO? Since he is an ex-Angel, might it suggest that Bavasi now has majority control, if not outright power to approve or reject trades?
Todd,
Raw defensive statistics are mostly useless. There are too many variables that go into the numbers that have to be controlled. A flyball staff (like the M’s) will give their outfielders more chances, leading to inflated defensive numbers. Combine that with a park that has a distinct impact on batted balls, and you’ve got a situation where the M’s outfielders are getting more and easier opportunities than players in other situations.
For statistical defensive evaluation, you really need one of the advanced metrics, preferably based on play-by-play data, such as UZR. And even those aren’t perfect.
Essentially, though, Safeco is the perfect storm for inflating defensive numbers for outfielders.
Sorry, I meant Pedroia.
Essentially, Arroyo has one skill; throw the ball over the plate. He doesn’t miss bats, and he doesn’t induce groundballs. He’s a use-your-defense guy who relies on his outielders to run down an awful lot of balls in the gaps and hopes that his flyballs don’t leave the yard too often.
I had to read this again because I wondered why you were talking about Jaime Moyer in a post about Bronson Arroyo.
2006 ZiPS Projections
———————————————————————-
Player AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB BA OBP SLG
———————————————————————-
Marte 416 65 106 24 2 19 77 61 91 0 .255 .350 .459
That’s not a bad projection.
It would be nice to get him.
As far as I can see, there is some statistical cherrypicking going on here. Arroyo’s three-year K/9 is around 5.74 (Washburn is 5.02, Johnson is 6.6), which is slightly below league average, but not as drastic as his 2005 numbers would depict. His three year BB/9 is 2.3 (Washburn is 2.44, Johnson is 2.86) a little better than league average. He allows .9 HR/9 IP (Washburn is 1.23, Johnson is 1.03 in Comerica), which is pretty good. All but 17.3 IP (his time in Pittsburgh) were compiled with Boston. Fenway, as a home park, surpresses strikeouts by 6% and inflates walks by 4%, while increasing the run scoring environment by 10% overall. While the walk PF for Safeco is similar to Fenway, the KPF is 12% higher. Additionally, if you look at the Red Sox OF defense this year in the 2006 THT Annual, it is clear that it is one of the worst in baseball. The Mariners’ have an above average outfield defense in addition to a hell of a lot more room out there. The biggest problem with Arroyo, which unsurprisingly you failed to realize or more importantly mention, is his terrible L/R split. Lefties hit like Grady Sizemore against him, while righties batted like Jack Wilson against him. The problem this year was that teams, specifically the AL East squads, started to stack their lineups with left-handed hitters. I don’t if this would continue in the AL West, but it is something to worry about. Nevertheless, take him out of Fenway, put him in the AL West and he will probably have a true-talent level ERA of around 3.9. His road ERA’s the last two years were 3.06 and 4.05 respectively. Washburn and Johnson came from parks with RUN PF’s of .94 and .92 respectively (to repeat, Fenway is a 1.10). You can call him what you want, Arroyo is a better pitcher than Washburn and Johnson.
re Marte, there was an odd note in the B Herald at the time they got him: “After the trade was announced, one baseball source said another team that was interested in Marte turned away after the Braves acknowledged the player had a tear in the ulnar collateral ligament of an elbow. A Red Sox official said Marte is healthy and that the team reviewed his medical file.”
This whole discussion about whether or not to trade Reed to go find a pitcher is maddening because it is a direct result of Bavasi’s lack of foresight in getting Clement and Millwood LAST year.
Both of those players were available. Both had track records that indicated a strong chance of future success. Millwood, who was so desperate for a contract that he took a 1 year deal, exceeded his projected performance. Clement was, and is, a better pitcher than Washburn. Signing one or both of them last year not only would have made last season far more successful, but would have kept us out of the box we are in this off-season.
Bavasi seemingly thinks through his free agent moves with the same foresight as a 6-year-old playing checkers. Sadly for us, that 6-year-old is playing checkers in the same division as Garry Kasparov.
Marte is one of the top 10 position prospects in baseball. I don’t see how we can get him either, unless rumors of his injured elbow are true, in which case we are getting damaged goods.
Not to mention – Marte plays 3rd, which would be repetitive to our current investment there (Beltre) and doesn’t address Bavasi’s immediate need for pitching.
Petagine is 34 (birthdate is June 1971). But he’s really young compared to his wife, Olga. She is 27 years his senior (age 61!) and reported to be among the reasons Petagine left Japan. You guys discussed things in this thread:
http://ussmariner.com/index.php?p=2248
Tell you what: Arroyo, Petagine and the rights to Ted’s head for Reed. Who knows when human cloning research will be legitimized….
As far as I can see, there is some statistical cherrypicking going on here.
Cherrypicking insinuates a negative motive, which doesn’t exist. If I had batted ball data for years before 2005, I would have shared it. I don’t, so I didn’t.
Arroyo’s three-year K/9 is around 5.74 (Washburn is 5.02, Johnson is 6.6), which is slightly below league average, but not as drastic as his 2005 numbers would depict.
Of course, every serious projection system in the world weights more recent performance heavier than past performance. Arroyo’s ‘04 can’t be completely discounted, but its clearly less valuable as information than his ‘05.
He allows .9 HR/9 IP (Washburn is 1.23, Johnson is 1.03 in Comerica), which is pretty good.
Using HR/IP is failing to adjust for HR/OF fly issues. Arroyo, like Washburn, gave up far fewer home runs than you’d expect based on his FB totals. As we’ve shown elsewhere, that’s not a skill.
The Mariners’ have an above average outfield defense in addition to a hell of a lot more room out there.
There’s almost no way an outfield defense of Ibanez-Bloomquist-Ichiro would be above average. The M’s outfield defense was above average last year, but not hugely so, and that was with Reed and four months of Randy Winn. Replacing those two with Ibanez and Bloomquist would almost certainly be a significant downgrade.
The biggest problem with Arroyo, which unsurprisingly you failed to realize or more importantly mention, is his terrible L/R split.
Leave the personal shots at home.
Nevertheless, take him out of Fenway, put him in the AL West and he will probably have a true-talent level ERA of around 3.9.
Placing him in a pitcher friendly environment does not increase his true talent level. Sorry.
His road ERA’s the last two years were 3.06 and 4.05 respectively.
Another “ERA is God” argument. Fun.
You can call him what you want, Arroyo is a better pitcher than Washburn and Johnson.
They all suck. That’s the real point here.
[see comment guidelines]
The only Brandon on the Sox 40-man is Moss.
I found it interesting that Millwood wasn’t mentioned in the article.
As Ms fans we’re all pretty upset, but I’m wondering why we didn’t see this coming. Lincoln is still here, and as long as he is, he’ll continue to hire people like Bavasi and Hargrove who believe that the players and rumors we’ve been hearing this year are good things for Seattle.
One last thing about Hickey’s article (beginning of 5th paragraph) I found funny:
“Should any of the players not be offered contracts…”
Yes. Washburn to begin with. I suppose the actual word would be rescind, but still… is it too late for the Mariners to change their minds? Sigh…
Dave said “Olkin’s a consultant. He lives in New Jersey.” That would explain why stats apparently mean nothing to the Ms front office…
Sigh…
I wonder if there is some way to lock Bill Bavasi in a room with the USSM crew Clockwork Orange style until he learns how to stop destroying our team.
Arroyo, like Washburn, gave up far more home runs than you’d expect based on his FB totals.
You meant to say far fewer, I believe? With the implication that we should expect him to give up far more in the future than he has previously?
Yea, my bad. Nice catch. I’ve changed it.
I wonder if there is some way to lock Bill Bavasi in a room with the USSM crew Clockwork Orange style until he learns how to stop destroying our team.
The problem isn’t that Bavasi doesn’t know that this kind of analysis exists. He just values it less than we do. Given his history in scouting and player development, that is unlikely to change. As long as the organization values their scouts opinions of a player’s mental toughness over performance, we’ll have these kind of problems.
I know you’re talking about pitchers and looking beyond ERA, but really this seems to be the basic problem with the Mariners FO over the past few years. The team seems obsessed with getting players who are between 7th and 11th in the league at their position. These guys are upgrades when you’re void (LF and 4th and 5th SP entering this off-season, SS and 3B a few years ago) but still aren’t good players who will help you win.
Last year’s signings of Beltre and Sexson were a welcome change, but it looks like they’re back to their old ways. As bad as the acquisitions have been, the rumors are even worse.
A Red Sox official said Marte is healthy and that the team reviewed his medical file.
The Red Sox medical staff has been overhauled to some extent recently, according to news reports, but I still wouldn’t trust anything they say about a player’s injury status.
The problem isn’t that Bavasi doesn’t know that this kind of analysis exists. He just values it less than we do. Given his history in scouting and player development, that is unlikely to change. As long as the organization values their scouts opinions of a player’s mental toughness over performance, we’ll have these kind of problems.
So we’re fucked, right?
I have never really liked Arroyo. I’m hoping that there’s something they like that may be Non-tendered shortly and all this is just posturing subterfuge.
Pedroia(2nd) and Marte(3rd) are infielders. I could see going after a young 2nd baseman, but not at the cost of your only young CF (unless Strong has something the M’s aren’t seeing). We’ll see what happens, but I could see the M’s going hard for Lester (from Puyallup) once the Damon ball drops. Of course that requires Damon signing outside of Boston.
So sign Damon here(who I consider a good offensive comp. to Reeds upside) and trade Reed+ for Lester. That’s how to overpay for pitching. Damon may not be as good defensively, but his salary could also help you get a cheaper TORS for late 06-07. Damon may be good for the clubhouse (whatever that means, right?)…
That’s almost making moves just to make moves, but it could work out as well or better than waiting for Reeds offense. A young TORS to go with Felix and he’s a local good guy with a great personality.
John Lester in an ‘04 interview when asked fav. players, growing up:
“Being from the Seattle/Tacoma area, I followed Ken Griffey, Jr. and Randy Johnson. Of course, after R.J. left, I didn’t like him quite as much! But in ‘95 when the Mariners beat the Yankees it was unbelievable. The team started winning and was really fun to watch.”
Could, would, should the M’s try to pull it off?
“They all suck. That’s the real point here.”
Actually no, they don’t. How wonderfully dismissive of you though. Your inability to make any type of distinction reflects more on you than the actual players’ you are analyzing. You and everyone else on this board are fans of a 69 win team. You also have a GM who, is terrible. That, in my eyes, makes you beggars. And as we all know, “Beggars can’t be choosers.” Arroyo is a league average pitcher, maybe better, who is going to make ~2.5 million dollars this year. League average pitchers fill out roations. With the going rate for league average pitchers, that’s somewhere between a 4 and 5 million dollar discount. If you traded for him and then did the smart thing and bought out 2 or 3 years of free agency for something like a 3 year/ 13 million dollar deal, your team would be better off. Unfortunately it seems like the Mariners will continue to move forward without a plan.
On a more serious note, the whole topic is moot. This trade is not going to happen, simply because the whole rumor is a ploy to scare Damon into a contract. It might come as a shock to many, but the Red Sox aren’t perfect. Apparently we think Johnny Damon is worth over 10 million dollars a year. I can not explain to you why. Nonetheless, we will still win 95 games next year.
They all suck. That’s the real point here.
That plus the fact that Arroyo isn’t worth losing Reed.
#22: Seattle has had trade offers in the past few weeks for Franklin, who eats up plenty of innings even if he doesn’t get much in the way of run support or victories.
Yeah, maybe he eats up innings but he regurgitates runs. The guy is bulimic like that.
Your inability to make any type of distinction reflects more on you than the actual players’ you are analyzing.
Yes, clearly, I’m an idiot.
You and everyone else on this board are fans of a 69 win team. You also have a GM who, is terrible. That, in my eyes, makes you beggars. And as we all know, “Beggars can’t be choosers.â€
Go do some research on who actually signs most big name free agents. Hint: it’s not winning teams.
Arroyo is a league average pitcher, maybe better, who is going to make ~2.5 million dollars this year.
There’s just no way to defend that statement, because its patently absurd.
They all suck. That’s the real point here.
It isn’t statistical cherry picking. It’s player cherry picking.
Dave seems to be inconsistent. He likes Jaime Moyer, a slightly-below average pitcher, but not Arroyo, a slightly-above average pitcher.
What has given the conclusion that Arroyo is an above average pitcher?
Ponson is out of jail (http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/baseball/bal-md.ponson19dec19,1,4475090.story?track=rss&ctrack=1&cset=true )
Dave, would you rather sign Ponson than to make a Arroyo-to-Reed deal?
Arroyo, Moyer, and Washburn are all basically the same guy. The difference between their expected performances is negligible.
Of course, the M’s gave one a 1 year, $5.5 million deal, another a 4 year, $34-40 million deal, and are talking about trading one of their five most valuable organizational pieces for the other.
Can’t imagine why I’d support the Moyer deal but not be fans of the others…
I’d rather see Ponson on a 2 year deal for $15ML than trade Reed for Arroyo…
Beggars? Yes, please fire Bavasi, I beg you!
Temple,
I think Damon is in the driver’s seat, if Bavasi realizes he doesn’t have to trade Reed for anything less than a pitcher plus Marte.
After Beane grabbed Bradley, the noose got a little tighter in the Red Sox FO. If Reed isn’t traded, the noose will get even tighter.
I’d rather see some organizational pitching development than Ponson though…
Of course, the M’s gave one a 1 year, $5.5 million deal, another a 4 year, $34-40 million deal, and are talking about trading one of their five most valuable organizational pieces for the other.
Can’t imagine why I’d support the Moyer deal but not be fans of the others…
Look up “opportunity cost” in an economics textbook.
$5.5 Million is a lot to part with for a pitcher who is far more likely to collapse than Arroyo.
the real question I have is how can we recover from basically giving away Reed? Doesn’t that basically make the Garcia trade worthless? Do prospects like him come along often enough to make this in any way justifiable? Is there any way to replace him at all? What could Bavasi be thinking?
Re:68
You seem capable of making a cogent argument. I highly recommend in the future that you attempt to do it without coming off like a snide 15 yr old. Maybe then people will, you know, actually listen to you.
I’d rather sign Fat Sidney than do any of the deals we’ve agonized over for the past week, because it would be a low cost deal with the possibility of a half-decent result – i.e. Sir Chubby quits drinking and starts working out and pitches 220 innings and strikes out 140 guys.
The deals I hate are either medium cost-high risk-low reward (Everett) or high cost-low reward (Wasburn and the Reed for Arroyo swap).
Those last two aren’t even high risk. It’s a racing certainty that both Washburn and Arroyo won’t be world beaters.
I don’t want to see Reed traded for anybody that we’d likely get back for him.
We aren’t getting significant pitching back in exchange for him, and getting a position player creates a hole in center that we’ll have to find a replacement level or below player to fill.
If you want to trade us Pujols for Reed, let’s talk. Otherwise, no.
Revenant
The next five years of Reed is likely worth a lot more than $5.5 million, though. That’s the cost.
My moderation caused the comment numbers to be off. It looks like Kenshi’s insulting me, when in fact they meant to return Revenant’s insult…
I wish there was some way to keep my comments from needing moderation…
Pujols might be a little high. I’d take Johan Santana.
Or that Cabrera dude. I hear he’s pretty handy.
Shit, I’m turning into Corco.
Best be off and do some work.
Colm,
The $5.5 M could have been spent on another pitcher. Thus, Reed would still be on the team.
Millwood signed for $7.0 Million for 2005.
“If you want to trade us Pujols for Reed, let’s talk. Otherwise, no.”
“Pujols might be a little high. I’d take Johan Santana.”
Don’t sit here and critisize Bavasi and then say stupid stuff like this. Like all fans of teams, you are simply overvaluing your own teams “prospects”. Reed can be a nice player, but lets just be honest. He is 24 and hit .254/.322/.352. If you wouldn’t trade him for people as talented as John Lackey or Noah Lowry, you are just as dumb as your GM.
Look up “opportunity cost†in an economics textbook.
$5.5 Million is a lot to part with for a pitcher who is far more likely to collapse than Arroyo.
Cash is far more replaceable for the Seattle “Hey, we drew 2.6 million with a crappy team” Mariners than good young players, if we’re going to discuss “opportunity cost”. Reed still belongs in the good young player category despite his 2005 season.
Dave mentions the defensive problems ditching Reed’s going to have, but going from the 3 OF + DH positions being Ichiro/Reed/Winn/Ibañez to Ichiro/Bloomquist/Ibañez/Everett is pretty disastrous, in my opinion. On a team that has issues with low OBP anyway, adding a player with a lifetime OBP of .308 and a player who’s had one year above league-average OBP in the last 5 is adding gasoline to a fire. Preston Wilson’s better than Bloomquist, but his lifetime OBP (.333) is well below adjusted league average OBP during his career as well (.344).
The M’s may be well on the way to eliminating much of the potential offensive upside they had going into 2006 from Beltre/Reed/Lopez/Betancourt/Johjima.
#80: 2005 dollars aren’t even close to 2006 dollars. The markup from one year to the next in the baseball world appears to be higher than 50 percent … and likely closer to 100 percent.
#81: I’d make those trades, but the point is that those trades might be made because they’d be fair trades. All involve players with tons of upside. Dismissing Jeremy Reed by citing his .254/.322/.352 line as it were the sum of his worth as a ballplayer is ridiculously shortsighted. It ignores his excellent defense and sneers at his eminently projectable upside.
As long as the organization values their scouts opinions of a player’s mental toughness over performance, we’ll have these kind of problems.
Do the M’s scouts really think Washburn and Arroyo as “mentally tough” guys?
I am wondering if they dont look at stuff like FLyball pitchers etc. at all and take decisions in a vaccum.
Templeusox:
I don’t think anyone was legitimately saying that any of those players could be had for Reed.
The point I was making, and I assume Colm was as well, was that the players we’d be willing to see Reed get given up for, are entirely unrealistic to get back for him.
So, if anything, you’re agreeing with us.
“#81: I’d make those trades, but the point is that those trades might be made because they’d be fair trades. All involve players with tons of upside. Dismissing Jeremy Reed by citing his .254/.322/.352 line as it were the sum of his worth as a ballplayer is ridiculously shortsighted. It ignores his excellent defense and sneers at his eminently projectable upside.”
I’m not dismissing him, I called him a nice player. But he isn’t a top-tier prospect either.
“The point I was making, and I assume Colm was as well, was that the players we’d be willing to see Reed get given up for, are entirely unrealistic to get back for him.”
Yea, I understood this only after I hit the “Submit Comment” button.
Trading Reed and… could get a player worth talking about.
#60: I’ve never heard anybody try to argue that a team in a hole would better themselves by digging more earnestly. I’m pretty sure the Mariners predicament has more to do with Bavasi’s tendency to make deals like the ones the USSM folks have been righfully lambasting than his failure to make more of them.
“Reed can be a nice player, but lets just be honest. He is 24 and hit .254/.322/.352. If you wouldn’t trade him for people as talented as John Lackey or Noah Lowry, you are just as dumb as your GM.”
You’re proposing we trade him for Arroyo. Do you seriously believe Arroyo is as talented as John Lackey or Noah Lowry? If so, please forgive me for not taking you seriously.
“You’re proposing we trade him for Arroyo. Do you seriously believe Arroyo is as talented as John Lackey or Noah Lowry? If so, please forgive me for not taking you seriously.”
You must have not seen the posts I was replying to. It was an entirely different topic. And I didn’t propose that you trade him for Arroyo. In fact I explicitly said that I would be on the fence about it from a Mariners’ perspective. The only thing I took issue with was Arroyo being classified as a below average pitcher, which he isn’t.
Temple,
Please chill on the snarky attitude. You made some interesting points but at this point I plan on completely ignoring anything you write because I don’t need to subject myself to the tude.
My bad, it just seems like you have to add some edge to your online voice on SoSH to cut through the clutter. I guess I just transferred it over here.
Just for the heck of it:
Bronson Arroyo’s similar players through age 28 (from baseball-reference.com):
# Mike Harkey (978)
# Kevin Foster (975)
# Chris Codiroli (974)
# Rodrigo Lopez (974)
# Sean Bergman (972)
# Art Ditmar (970)
# Ted Lilly (969)
# Brett Tomko (968)
# Chad Ogea (967)
# Scott Sanders (967)
Given than Dave and others have generally agreed that Reed’s upside is Rusty Greer (but with a little less power, a better glove, and possibly better knees), through some substitution we can re-form the question as:
“Should we trade a player who has a 50% chance of being Rusty Greer for… Mike Harkey? Rodrigo Lopez? Brett Tomko?”
I know my answer.
You know, this is neither here nor there, but does it really make sense to acquire players on the basis that they are “mentally tough”?
Wouldn’t one only become “mentally tough” by repeatedly getting his ass handed to him, thus rendering him somewhat numb to failure?
Innocent question, but wouldn’t it be more consistent to compare Arroyo’s comps with Reed’s comps? It seems more fair than comparing someone’s comps with a subjective opinion. Here are Reed’s top 10 with their total WARP3 listed next to their names:
Hub Northen (979) 2.7
Mike Darr (974) 4.7
Hank Simon (970) 1.9
Johnny Lazor (969) 2.3
Chip Hale (967) 3.7
Al Gionfriddo (965) 3.2
Rufino Linares (963) 3.9
Sandy Griffin (963) .2
Myron Allen (963) 3.5
Ty Tyson (962) 3.7
So Bronson Arroyo’s WARP3 last year (4.5) was more than the career WARP3’s of 9 people of Reed’s top 10 comps.
Jeff Cirillo must be one of the most “mentally tough” players active … he survived the self-esteem savagery of Seattle and San Diego to salvage, sort of, his career.
I bet he could be acquired cheap.
I think the concept of mental toughness being looked for is not the equivalent of “get back on the horse after it throws you” kind of toughness. Rather it’s the toughness of having experienced high-pressure situations and still being able to perform up to one’s ability. People who have this mental toughness are closers, quarterbacks who can run the two-minute drill, and the guy you want taking the last shot in a basketball game.
Other people may have the same kind of abilities but won’t succeed when placed under extreme pressure. These people are also described as “lacking character.”
How do you tell the difference between these two kinds of people? It’s extremely difficult if you’re relying only on stats or scouting reports, or even both combined. My understanding is that the only way to know for sure is to look deeply into the player’s eyes and see whether some kind of fire is burning.
Much of the problem I see, Jeff, is “mentally tough”, like “cluhouse chemistry” and “winning attitude”, is part of those series of buzzwords we use to provide explanations behind success in sports, that don’t have any empirical basis in statistics. A lot of the time, they basically become post hoc, propter hoc arguments made by lazy sportwiters and talk radio hosts (“Team X wins because of their mental toughness and clubhouse chemistry, not because they have a couple of Hall of Fame ballplayers and a dominant closer”) that get repeated by fans, and overvalued by GMs.
I’m not saying these factors don’t exist- I’m saying they seem to be very much the asort of factors you can’t reduce to sabremetric argument and quite prone to after-the-fact sorts of rationalizations (in the end, we want rationalizations as explanations, and it’s easier to believe that the 2001 M’s lost to the 2001 Yankees because we “lacked mental toughness” than the simple fact that any 7 game series is a crapshoot), and as such, pretty suspect.
#94: I think you see that same look in someone on a meth binge.
Good news: the mentally tough Jarrod Washburn has allowed 25 runs in 36.2 playoff innings.
Now there’s a guy who really plays up to his full potential in high-pressure situations.
I guess what it comes down to is that GMs need to have good things to say about the players they acquire in their press conferences, so when a given player is a pitcher who’s neither hard-throwing nor intimidating, he has to be labeled as “experienced” and “mentally tough.” Maybe “crafty,” too, if his physical tools really suck.
Don’t forget “proven veteran”.
“If the M’s are determined to have a veteran pitch-to-contact innings sponge at the back of the rotation…”
RE: all this discussion about trading Reed for Arroyo…
If the M’s are determined to more thoroughly piss off the one guy — Ichiro — who’s getting tired of the literal run-around he’s put up with since Mike Cameron left, by all means replace Reed with Bloomquist or the half-lame Snelling.
I wanted to try to make a clear distinction between valuing mental toughness and valuing your scouts opinion of mental toughnes.
I value mental toughness in players. I’m fairly certain it’s an important part of why some players succeed and others fail. I just realize that I have no idea how to evaluate mental toughness ahead of time, and I’m unable to discern which major league players are mentally tough and which ones are not.
It’s still pretty remarkable to me that MLB organizations ask talent scouts to also become psychiatrists and evaluate a player’s mental aptitude through minimal contact. Essentially, they have to draw broad sweeping conclusions off of little things, such as Pitcher X has no intestinal fire because he didn’t cuss when he gave up the game losing home run.
I don’t mind the M’s valuing mental toughness. I just wish they’d admit that they don’t really have any great idea of how to tell which players are mentally tough ahead of time, and stop signing guys on the recommendation of talent scouts who are asked to play shrink.
GM-Speak & Sportwriter-Speak:
“Crafty” = It’s amazing he doesn’t get hit even More.
“Winning Attitude” = … and nothing else “winning”
“Mentally Tough” = He will make the fans cry.
“Experienced” = His best years are behind him.
“Well-Traveled” = No team wants him for long.
“Good Clubhouse Guy” = Someone who won’t point out the F.O.’s embarrassing incompetence…
As usual, I said something in my smartass way, and Dave says is much better and more intelligently…
But that’s OK, because it increases my own mental toughness…
#80: 2005 dollars aren’t even close to 2006 dollars. The markup from one year to the next in the baseball world appears to be higher than 50 percent … and likely closer to 100 percent.
Jim, how are you arriving at 50 to 100 percent?
Moyer – 2005: $ 8M
Moyer – 2006: $ 5.5M
Just one example. I’m sure there are others.
Cash is far more replaceable for the Seattle “Hey, we drew 2.6 million with a crappy team†Mariners than good young players, if we’re going to discuss “opportunity costâ€.
I’m sure investors wouldn’t agree, eponcow.
Carl Everett is mentally tough, because his brain can fight off scientific evidence.
Seriously, “mental toughness” is a way which writers try to describe some success for which they do not have a more tangible explanation.
Notice how mentally tough players come from winning teams? Are the teams winning because of the mentally tough players, or the fact that their team was more talented? Usually I would bet the latter. Look at Steve Young, former NFL QB. At Tampa, he was a complete disaster, lacking, by many accounts, mental toughness. This is how San Fran was able to aquire him. As soon as he was plugged into a quality organization, he proved to be good and plenty mentally tough. For other examples of the Tampa effect, see Doug Williams, Vinny Testaverde (who put in some good years in Cleveland and later for the Jets, before getting too old). Once you have been deemed “mentally tough”, or a “prover winner”, you can stink in key situations for years without the criticism that is given to someone who hasn’t been on a winning team (see Brett Favre).
Dave, that’s a good point. The thing is, I’m not sure how you could evaluate it effectively. The NFL makes rookies take tests and so on, and still regularly botches things in talent evaluation in drafting and in roster decisions (where they actually have time with the player).
Reed for 1 of (Arroyo or Clement) AND 1 of (Pedrioa or Marte).
That is the only deal I would make.
This is my favorite part of this thread.
Why not Lester alone for Reed…I’d even throw in Fraklin and his trade offers the last couple weeks (surely players not worth tendering arbitration from other teams)
I’m sure investors wouldn’t agree
Why? Consider that a quality baseball team in Seattle can draw 800K to a million more fans- and a good young player typically provides better on the statistical performance/salary ratio, meaning that you can spend money on other areas of your team where you can’t get good performance for cheap.
If your argument is the M’s should maximize profit for the sake of their investors, what likely does that (at least in the near term, before you have to renegotiate TV and radio deals) is a fire sale of veterans, Marlins-style, and radically reducing the budget. It’s fairly likely trades of Ichiro, Sexson could net you some pretty tantalizing kids, and a 65-75 win team of Felix/Reed/Lopez/Betancourt/whoever you get would still draw over 2 million to the Safe.
Finally, realistically, the M’s are better off with Reed and Moyer than Arroyo and Preston Wilson- let alone Bronson Arroyo and Willie Bloomquist playing CF. Arroyo’s done nothing of note in his career that distinguishes him from Ryan Franklin or any other number of innings-eater pitchers. Reed is still potentially going to be a better player, and there’s no reason to give up on him when you’re discussing a team that’s been starving for young talent for a while, and isn’t going to be mistaken for the 1927 Yankees anytime soon.
why diss the intangibles?
I’m not sure about the rest of you but in my experience looking into the eyes of a man or woman in certain situtations reveals alot about the mental make-up of that person. I think it safe to say we have all had gut feelings about people or felt that we could count on someone more than someone else in a pressured situation. again in my experience I have noticed people of equal physical skills often have different degress of success soley because of mental hangups or the lack thereof. Participating in sports, organized or pick-up, will reveal this concept to you Pound-on-calculators-until-the-stats-agree-with-me types. I suggest the next time you guys feel the urge to shrug off intagibles go to your local Y and physically compete in something…anything at all.
I just wish they’d admit that they don’t really have any great idea of how to tell which players are mentally tough ahead of time
I think a salient question is whether there’s even a good way to tell which players are mentally tough after the fact.
I grant that “mental toughness” is real enough, and varies between different people. The most obvious manifestation might be anxiety disorders, and we know that some people do “freeze up” in pressure situations. But how do we evaluate the “normal” population, let alone people in a hyper-competitive culture where nearly all who succeed will be above normal?
It’s like trying to sort out good stress from bad stress. Do we conclude that Ichiro is a great player because he’s driven and intense and puts all kinds of pressure on himself to perform, or that he’s not mentally tough because he’s admitted that this pressure affected him towards the end of one of his poorer seasons?
Bammer, no one is “dissing” intangibles.
What people are saying, is two things:
1) We have no way to measure them, by definition of them being intangible, so they can’t rationally be used in discussing a player, because you can’t compare things without being able to measure them;
2) Things described as intangibles, such as “grit”, “knowing how to win”, etc, are often used by media/front office types to try to give value to a player who inherently has very little (see: Willie Bloomquist). Because, again, since they can’t be measured, you can’t prove someone who says “Willie Bloomquist is the kind of player who gets his uniform dirty!” wrong.
I’m not sure about the rest of you but in my experience looking into the eyes of a man or woman in certain situtations reveals alot about the mental make-up of that person.
And we’re all thrilled that you have nothing to do with deciding who plays for the Mariners.
Pound-on-calculators-until-the-stats-agree-with-me types. I suggest the next time you guys feel the urge to shrug off intagibles go to your local Y and physically compete in something…anything at all.
Condescending? Check
Ignorant? Check
Generalizations? Check
Congratulations. You get an A on the “Worn Out Cliches By the Uninformed” exam.
So would we be better off with Franklin or Meche than Washburn? (This is a sincere question; I am not trying to be combative.) How do thier numbers compare? I would ask this same question about Arroyo, but I agree that losing Reed would be a high price despite his weak bat.
More Fun with GM-Speak:
“Knows How To Win” = …from watching his teammates with more quantifiable talent
“Gets his uniform dirty” = a great pinch runner
I would be seriously tempted to stick with Franklin or Meche rather than sign Washburn to the rumored contract. RF and GM cost very little compared to JW, and they will only be around until someone better comes along. Washburn and his contract will be around for 4 years.
If Arroyo can only be expected to be an innings-eater, we already have those… we need Better Pitching.
The thing that is really bothering me a lot is that Carl Everett’s salary will almost certainly be the difference between getting Kevin Millwood and settling for Washburn.
#108: We can rapid-fire examples at one another all day:
2005 Kevin Millwood: $7 million
2006 Kevin Millwood: At least $12 million
Markup:
At least 70-75 percent.
121. That’s kind of what I was thinking. Your comment about Everett’s salary is particulalry depressing.
Last time I tossed the ball around at the Y, a 13 year old, skinny little kid in Converse’s handed me my ass. The only thing I saw in his eyes was a lasting reflection from his Xbox.
Here is the deal. You can’t read anyone’s mind. I cannot read my wifes’s mind let alone anyone else. None of us can.
What was burning for a player one year can implode the next. The whole problem with trying to buy grit is that it just doesn’t work. The whole Ms FO is all mixed up because at one time they had all those things in a group of players who also had the talent to back it up. Now they are trying to manufacture a team by attempting to purchase something they seem to believe is real but have no way of quantifiying or guranteeing.
I’d take Washburn with little heartburn at 2-3 per season, two year deal and be grateful we had something different then Franklin. I’d have pinched my nose to take Jurasic Carl at million or so with some incentive for a year and been OK.
Trouble is we take flyers on guys for too long of terms at too many dollars. We take on veteran guys hoping against all odds and all the data that they’ll turn into the players they once were or that we hope them to be. It just doesn’t work for Seattle all that well.
I guess I have to ask what is wrong with the Ms scouting group? We seem to take it in the shorts far too often. Just rattle off some names from the past 5 years of veteran guys we took a chance on. How many of those guys ever contributed to our success? I’d hazard a guess that none of them have done anything other then chew up salary dollars, cost us some picks and block developing players. One can blame the GM’s for making the choices but you also have to go look at the data they got from the scouts. I don’t know who the scouts are and perhaps some of them are fine.
Is the problem in communication styles? Does the FO just not listen? Do they two sides ever really talk? Does the FO get their scouting data from player’s agents? The deeper we go into this off-season, the more it seems the Ms front office is just plain operating on hope.
I think the one thing people forget when citing intangibles like mental toughness and a work ethic is how much mental toughness and work it takes to get into pro baseball in the first place. Even in the low minors, everyone around you is a talented ballplayer, and the work it takes to develop into a potential major leaguer, let alone an actual major leaguer, let alone maintain the ability needed to survive in the majors, is beyond most men’s reason.
So the ‘race some kids around the pool at the Y before questioning mental toughness’ argument doesn’t wash, because just about everyone in MLB had to have a great degree of mental toughness just to get where they were. Once you get thousands of mentally tough players in a league, your only other separator is… you guessed it: their stats and performance.
#125 – I stay away from the “Y”.. got tired of being beat at one-on-one by 13 year olds.
I think what’s wrong with the Mariners FO w/r/t signing veteran players can be traced back to Bret Boone. Bret Boone was a guy that was an average player and was signed to a low risk one year deal. The M’s caught lightning in a bottle with him and therefore the M’s thought they’d keep trying to sign players of a similar ilk. I’m guessing that once Boone did so well, they were playing with the house’s money?
I think the Boone signing back ‘01 is what begat the Cirillo signing, which begat the Aurilia/Spieizo (sp?) signings, which brings us to Carl Everett today… maybe it’s all coincidental, but that’s my two cents.
Gomez, you took the words out of my mouth….
You COULD do the “mental toughness” bit for football and basketball; not only do they take players at younger ages directly into the highest level, there are far fewer developmental leagues that act to winnow out the players who AREN’T mentall tough.
I’d argue that mental toughness manifests itself AS the stats that we can measure…..
Should be fixed, sorry.
Re: 105
It’s still pretty remarkable to me that MLB organizations ask talent scouts to also become psychiatrists and evaluate a player’s mental aptitude through minimal contact.
For what it’s worth, I believe someone on here
posted once that Baltimore Orioles make their players take psych tests.
Among other things, they found that “[Arthur] Rhodes’ psychological testing indicated he should neither start nor close, roles the Orioles wanted him to fill.” Ergo, Rhodes is better as a setup man.
I’m just saying that while the concept of “mental toughness†is vague, aspects of a players’s psyche can be measured in useful ways.
Bammer, you may be missing a little context. If I’m a manager and I have to choose who wants the ball on three days rest in a playoff, then I might want to “look into the eyes” to determine who takes the hill. My starting assumption is that I’m choosing from among capable players to begin with. Roster construction is a very different thing. The truth is that, compared to the general population, anyone who makes it to the show is a fantastically gifted athlete. Trouble is, they don’t compete against the general population, but rather against each other. When the level of competition is that high, performance metrics can tell us alot about who to place on the roster in the first place. I believe the folks here simply realize advanced research metrics bear the most fruit if applied right now during this critical period for roster construction. Although they don’t need me to defend them, I don’t believe they are “dissing” or dismissing intangibles. I believe they feel very passionately that one should use as much information as possible when doing this type of long term planning.
Another problem with “mental toughness” and “competitive fire” is that it is fairly common at the pro level. Even the pros we think of as terrible or perceive as soft usually are people who have worked hard to develop their skills. I’m sure Jim Abbot, former Angel pitcher, is to this day as gritty and tough and determined as anybody to ever play the game, but I don’t think it would be a good idea to give the guy a contract.
Besides, if Washburn’s competitive fire was so great, then he should use it work tirelessly to find an out pitch. If Everett has so much grit, maybe he should will himself to have an above average OPS+.
Yes, often people of equal or lesser physical abilities have more success in sports. In baseball this translates into performance stats a great deal of the time, no longer being intangible. Charles Gibson is one of the better atheletes to play the game in recent years, but his limited career wasn’t due to lack of intangibles, it was due to a very tangible inability to hit a baseball.
Lasly, because people enjoy debating in this forum does not mean that they do not compete on the playing field. That is untrue, arrogant and irrelevant.
If you want intestinal fire, look here.
There is no here, here.
dagnabit. we shoulda tried the tractor gambit to get a good pitcher.
Maybe we could chip in and get Bill Bavasi a tractor in exchange for dropping Washburn & Arroyo from his list of things to do…
Jim,
With the $5.5 Million, you could have:
a. Upped the bid for Millwood,
b. Nearly bought Nomar Garciaparra ($6 Million, 1 Year)
c. Used to sign Paul Byrd. ($14.25 Million, 2 Years) Between Bavasi and Shapiro, I’m more confident that Shapiro knows his stuff.
d. Used to buy lunch with Theo Epsten and got change of $5.484 Million
e. Used to sign A.J. Burnett ($55 Million, 5 Years) Isn’t A.J. more likely to be a part of the next good M’s team?
f. Saved to pay for a free agent next off season
That gives a better idea of the opportunity cost related to signing Moyer.
Another problem with intangibles. How much do you value them?
Player A – FIP ~4.00, no “intangibles”
Player B – FIP ~4.25, good “leader”
Player C – FIP ~4.50, great “leader”, huge “fire to compete”
Who do you sign?
Or, another example, how many teams with “good clubhouses” but little talent fail? Compare that to teams with good talent and bad clubhouses that fail. I guarentee talent >>> intangibles.
Of course, given the budget, it would have to be a “crafty”, “experienced” tractor that likes to “get dirty”…
136.
A- Millwood hasn’t signed yet, so we have no way of knowing if the Ms need to up their offer.
B- You are ignoring a basic tenant of opportunity cost here. The Ms need SPers. So Moyer’s true opp cost is compared against OTHER starting pitchers, not utility players.
C- 5.5M != 7M
D- just silly
E- By all indications, AJ wasn’t going to play west of St Louis, regardless of contract offer.
F- Nope. Budget savings do not roll over.
Besides, Opportunity cost is not the end-all of economics. If you move a little beyond intro micro, they’ll show you some wonderful things.
Shane Monahan… king of grit and desire. I think that guy was proof that sometimes there isn’t enough desire, or self delusion, to make it work.
139
well said
GLOBE LINK ? (# 18) Perhaps you mean this article, actually from the Boston HERALD (end of the next-to-last paragraph). [But bear in mind that the Seattle sportswriters have no monopoly on interpreting things incorrectly.]
http://tinyurl.com/djcls
________
NOTE – It was posted (# 205) on 12/17/05(by Melvin Bob), a comment to 3.20 ERA.
#129: Don’t forget the famous story from “Out Of Left Field” in which the M’s almost passed on drafting Ken Griffey Jr. (in favor of Mike Harkey) because his psychological testing didn’t reveal what the organization wanted.
I would trade Reed for Papplebon or any good young pitcher in a second. The next logical domino falling would be to move Ichiro into center field. Why does everyone continually assume that trading Reed means we’re stuck with a stiff like Bloomquist in CF?
You move Ichiro and then you’ve got a much easier problem to solve in finding a decent right fielder. We all know the M’s desperately need some more good young pitching. Reed is one of the few valuable trade commodities the M’s have.
The problem lies in that Bavasi is totally incapable of extracting value for Reed. Instead he’ll get a marginal performer like Aroyo who is on the cusp of arbitration. Do we really want to get Brett Tomko with cornrows in return for Reed?
The M’s have to opportunity to make the team better if they trade Reed. I’m not against trading him but the current “braintrust” has no idea what they are doing.
The Ms also give psych tests to their players, but it’s at the point when they determine whether or not they’re going to draft them, not when they sign them at a major league level. As somebody above pointed out, mental toughness is most definitely needed just to BE in pro ball, believing in yourself no matter how many times your friends and family tell you it’s time to get a real job and despite the 1 out of 10 that happens at every single level.
That’s not to say everyone’s mental toughness is the same, because, well, it’s also forged by non-baseball factors – dealing with adversity in life.
Outside of natural talent, I’m thinking a lot of it once you hit AA and above is about work ethic, willingness to listen/adapt/learn, and keeping your head on straight despite hordes of baseball annies/shirleys and everybody else who wants to kiss your *ss all the time.
Okay, fine. You trade Reed, and convince Ichiro! to move to right field.
Who do you put in right field? You say it’s much easier, but who do you find that’s still on the market, the M’s could realistically afford either in terms of money or further talent given up, and that is a good fit for what the M’s need at the position?
It doesn’t matter where you put the hole, moving Reed would leave a hole that is going to be difficult enough to fill that you would be hard pressed to make up for it.
a. Good point. We’ll see. I doubt we get Millwood, but we’ll see.
b. Pass.
c. I’d rather have Byrd because Shapiro would rather have Byrd. That 5.5 could have gone to him.
d. Silly, yes.
e. Budget savings go two places. Either, to the owners pocket or invested in the product. If the owner decides to buy a yacht with savings ok. He can also decide to spend it next year.
I doubt we get Millwood too, but it may be other reasons besides the offer. 5.5M could have gone to Byrd, but it would have taken more than that to sign him, meaning that money comes from somewhere else. The Mariners have NEVER rolled the budget surplus (which they have every year) over to the next year. Since I, like most others I believe, tend to not put creedence in events that have never happen prior, this is not really an option from a fan’s POV.
#149, OT, but KJR is reporting that the Washburn signing is official, and a Safeco Field press conference is set for 6:15 p.m. KJR will air it.
#113: Why not Lester alone for Reed…I’d even throw in Fraklin and his trade offers the last couple weeks (surely players not worth tendering arbitration from other teams)
#144: I would trade Reed for Papplebon or any good young pitcher in a second.
People, Reed is not going to get the M’s Papelbon or Lester, and guys like Franklin are what the M’s send to San Diego, not part of trades that bring back useful players.
I’m amazed that any ussmariner readers think the Red Sox will be willing to trade away good young (cheap) pitching. Would the M’s trade Felix for, say, Kevin Youkilis? Or has there been an infiltration here from nyyfans.com?
And in other money-smoking news, here’s from Doug Miller’s MLB.com mailbag:
What is the contract status of Bloomquist and Gil Meche?
– Tom M., Seattle
Both players are eligible for salary arbitration, and both are likely to qualify for significant raises. Meche made $2.5 million last year and will probably be looking for at least $4 million in 2006, which would make him a prime contender to be non-tendered on Tuesday (Dec. 20) if the Mariners decide to go with another pitcher in the starting rotation. Bloomquist played in 82 games last season and made $385,000 as one of the Mariners’ most valuable utility men. He’ll probably be trying to at least double his 2005 salary.
“One of the Mariners’ most valuable utility men”?
Who were the other ones?
The P-I is reported that the Washburn signing is a done deal, too: http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/baseball/252646_mari19ww.html
Um … uh … Mike Morse? Dave Hansen?
[deleted extremely long URL pasted as text]
Washburn official
#145– the problem with the Ms psych test (as we also learned in Out of left field) is the player actually has to fill in the form himself
btw, former KJR guy/now MLB radio guy Seth Everett weighed in today with the thought that signing Washburn was a good thing, as he’s a better pitcher than Millwood. sigh.
Nothing makes me feel more secure in my opinion than Seth Everett disagreeing. If Skip Bayless chimes in with the same thoughts as Seth, call it a lead-pipe cinch.
Why would the Sox trade Papplebon? Maybe they’ve taken a look at organizations like a certain NW based club supposedly stocked with young pitching and watched none of it develop? Maybe they realize that getting a young position player that fills a glaring need at a cheap price is a good risk for an unproven pitcher?
I’m a Red Sox fan by birth and I think this might be a win/win deal for both clubs. Of course if I’m the Sox I’m doing everything in my power to get the M’s to give me Reed for an easily replacable part like Aroyo, but if the M’s don’t budge I’ll give up something of decent value for Reed assuming I don’t want to spend what Damon is asking for or I decide I need to get younger in the outfield (not a bad decision).
You move Ichiro and then you’ve got a much easier problem to solve in finding a decent right fielder.
If the market is flush with decent RFs, why did we sign Carl Everett to play DH? Hint: instead of moving Ibañez to LF, we could have signed this mythical RF and had him play LF, and not wasted money on Everett. It’s not like it’s a BAD thing to have a LF with a good arm- Willie Stargell had enough arm to play RF, but since the Pirates had Clemente in RF, he played LF.
Heck, there’s a good case to be made that Preston Wilson would be a better DH than Carl Everett (handedness and all), assuming he becomes a Mariner signing. And I’m also wondering why if we’re settling for Washburn over Millwood, and Everett over Giles, why we have enough money to add Preston Wilson at 4-5 million. If we go from Ibañez at DH and an OF of Winn/Reed/Ichiro to a DH of Everett and an OF of Ibañez/Bloomquist/Ichiro, that’s a downgrade at THREE positions (DH, LF and CF)… all to get versions of Ryan Franklin who’ve pitched for the Angels and Red Sox.
The most depressing part of the M’s release about the Washburn signing:
“At the start of this offseason, our goals were to acquire a high-quality starting pitcher, add offense, re-sign Jamie Moyer and, ideally, upgrade our catching,” Bavasi said. “Today’s announcement marks the final, and perhaps most important, in that off-season list of goals.”
Basically, Bavasi is not only saying “we’re done”, but that he considers it a SUCCESSFUL offseason.
Remember the salad days of last year, when the M’s offseason, even if you didn’t agree with it 100%, didn’t make you want to burst into tears?
Dave. Why do you say that Arroyo’s 7.1 K’s per 9 in 2004 must be a fluke? You cite his minor league K rate of 6.9 per 9 as partial evidence. But isn’t this almost evidence for the 7.1 being a reasonable expectation? Sure, rates should go down in the majors but it’s not like he was K’ing 4 per 9 in the minors.
I heard that Arroyo developed his slurve his last year in AAA with the Sox. He K’d 155 guys in 149.2 innings that year (2003). I’m not sure why his minor league numbers before that are all that relevant. Is that K rate so inconsistent with 7.1 per 9 in the majors?
Don’t get me wrong. As I said earlier, I’m a Sox fan and I want them to trade Arroyo for Reed. I want the Sox to become a younger team and I think that Damon will likely be very overpaid for at least half of a 4 year contract.
#151, Jim – Those MLB.com mailbags never cease to amaze. You’ll laugh, you’ll cry…
If the market is flush with decent RFs, why did we sign Carl Everett to play DH? Hint: instead of moving Ibañez to LF, we could have signed this mythical RF and had him play LF, and not wasted money on Everett. It’s not like it’s a BAD thing to have a LF with a good arm- Willie Stargell had enough arm to play RF, but since the Pirates had Clemente in RF, he played LF.
I think we’ve effectively established that Bavasi is an idiot. That’s why we signed Everett to DH. When you have 2 centerfielders on your team you’ve got a lot of flexibility. The fact that the M’s refuse to acknowledge that Ichiro is best used in CF eliminates that path of thinking. There are lots of things the M’s could have done this offseason to make the team better. Signing Everett and Washburn and Kenji and calling it good doesn’t mean there weren’t better paths.
I just received a Mariners press release in my e-mail. It says the M’s have bolstered their pitching staff. Then it goes on to talk about how they signed Washburn to a four-year contract. It goes on from there but never does explain how the M’s bolstered their pitching staff. Odd. Very Odd.
Dave. Why do you say that Arroyo’s 7.1 K’s per 9 in 2004 must be a fluke? You cite his minor league K rate of 6.9 per 9 as partial evidence. But isn’t this almost evidence for the 7.1 being a reasonable expectation? Sure, rates should go down in the majors but it’s not like he was K’ing 4 per 9 in the minors.
I wanted to point this out as well. Looking at Arroyo’s statistics, we only have two major years that he was a starting pitcher (2004, 2005), but looking at his overall K/9 rates from his rookie season, the oddities appear to have been his miserable 2001 (3.97) and 2005’s dropoff. I see nothing that indicates that Bronson Arroyo is a 4.38 K/9 guy as his last season indicated. So why is the 2004 a fluke and the 2005 more realistic?
K/9 by year
2000 – 6.28
2001 – 3.97
2002 – 7.33
2003 – 7.27
2004 – 7.15
2005 – 4.39
I realize that we should analyze his most recent achievements in order to detect for dropoffs, declines, and other fluctuations associated with age, but Arroyo isn’t exactly near the age decline curve yet. I’m not denying the flyball tendency, as Arroyo appears to be, at best a 1:1 ratio guy, and at worst extreme flyballer, but his K/9 seems to be a huge question mark as to the reasons for it to have wavered so badly this last season.
2002 and 2003 combine for about 50 innings out of the bullpen. By not including IP or role, the line is massively misleading.
Minor League K rates are significantly higher than major league K rates. Arroyo’s minor league strikeout rate basically translates to about 5.7 in the majors, which is about his career average.
The problem isn’t that Bavasi doesn’t know that this kind of analysis exists. He just values it less than we do. Given his history in scouting and player development, that is unlikely to change. As long as the organization values their scouts opinions of a player’s mental toughness over performance, we’ll have these kind of problems.
The Brewers are another team with and “old school” GM, who values scouts opinions more than stats and when Washburn expressed interest at giving the Brewers a “hometown” discount, Doug Melvin told Boras “No Thanks”.
Having a “old school” GM isn’t a death sentence. Having the WRONG one is.
If only we could get that “gamer” Craig Counsell and his two World Series rings, then the clubhouse would gel and they would win!!
Who belives this stuff?
Actually, Mevlin’s one of the best GMs in the game, and he’s done a fantastic job in Milwaukee.
Dave. I think you’re cheating on the statistics, yourself, when you say that the rates quoted by typical idiot fan are only 50 ip and are misleading.
He apparently quoted only the major league numbers in Pittsburgh in 2002 (27 ip) and Boston in 2003 (17.1 ip).
In 2003, Arroyo was a starter in Pawtucket and, as I noted earlier, struck out 155 batters in 149.2 ip, a rate of 9.3 batters per 9 ip. Again, is that so incongruous with his rate of 7.1 per 9 ip in the majors in 2004?
Actually, Mevlin’s one of the best GMs in the game, and he’s done a fantastic job in Milwaukee.
Agreed.
But he and his right hand man Gord Ash would never in a million years be accused of using a SABR approach. But they rely heavily on gb/fb stats for their pitching staff.
I think Bavasi leans more on his father’s legacy for his baseball education and what is, is what is. Period. He knows, you don’t.
He has hired Squiggy TWICE as a scout.
Does Dan Evans have any input in the front office at all, or do I overvalue his job with the Dodgers?
I wonder if Doug Melvin doesn’t at least take a look at the SABR perspective on things. He was part of the Red Sox front office in 2002 and must have been exposed to that perspective on things.
I really wonder if even the most outspokenly old school GM’s don’t have a guy somewhere in a back room crunching numbers 24/7 for them while they drawl out paeans to scouts.
#171– “he has hired Squiggy TWICE as a scout.”
yeah, and that fact has so much to do with Bavasi’s baseball acumen.
Bavasi got scout credentials (unpaid, mind you) for a baseball-smart friend (who is a former AAA-team owner, btw) — one who at the time he first hired him was trying to deal with the loss of acting work due to his Multiple Sclerosis…
If the M’s don’t have another OF on speed-dial like Kenny Lofton, Preston Wilson, or Jaque Jones, then I don’t approve of a Reed-Arroyo trade.
yeah, and that fact has so much to do with Bavasi’s baseball acumen.
Well, I had ment that point as a humorous quip, but point taken.
Not that you brought up reason he SHOULD paid to be a scout other than he likes baseball or as he said in 2000 . . .
“I told them I shouldn’t be a scout,” Lander says of that first call from Bavasi and Fontaine in 1997. “I knew what I thought a scout should be, and I didn’t think I had it.”
Please forgive my ignorance.
But also, please inform me of the name of the scout that suggested Speizio and Olivio and I’ll insult them instead.
Well it’s either going to be Arroyo or Matt Clement. Clement is like a Jason Johnson though. Well until he took a line drive to the head.