Your guide to Everett alternatives
Can you do better than one year, $4m for Carl Everett? We’ve suggested as much in different places, so I’d like to offer this quick rundown.
What you get with Everett
In a previous post, I threw out 140 games where Everett hits .270/.350/.450 as “the best you could reasonably expect from Everett”. That would be better than a league-average DH.
A quick and dirty three-year projection (no park adjustments or anything) comes out at about .270/.330/.450. So if you want to dream a little dream, you’ll come out a lot better than that and yayyy.
If you look at how his career’s been going, though, you’ll see the decline that’s eating away his hitting year by year.
Another point to be considered is that while Everett may come to play DH, that forces Ibanez into left where over his career he’s been below-average. It’s not a horrible disaster, but figure that’s another five runs you lose when you make this roster decision.
Do nothing
This is not as bad an option as it might initially seem. You can play a platoon of Morse/whoever, and the whoever could be one of a couple of internal options:
Choo, Adam Jones, T.J. Bohn, or a relocated Reed as someone else pushes Reed over. And what the heck, if the random OFers you’re using don’t work, you can still be flexible. Plus, while some of these guys might not hit as well as Everett, they improve outfield defense, and going from Ibanez to a good left-fielder goes a long way to covering the gap in offensive production.
Or you can play Dobbs at DH. Sure, that’s not a great solution, but if it means that $4m saved gets the team Millwood over Matt Morris, that’s money well-saved. Plus, again, you can be flexible in-season if you want to move Ibanez back to DH because one of the prospect OFers is ready.
Get someone else
Left-or-both-hitting options still available through free agency with names. I’m quoting their three-year averages as rough projections: while PECOTA’s way better, we don’t have those projections yet, and three-year averages get you almost all the way there. So for this rough purpose, they’re quite useful here.
Jeremy Burnitz, OF-L, 37
His three-year average runs out to .260/.320/.470. But that also includes a Colorado year, and I’m not park-adjusting these at all.
Erubiel Durazo, DH-L, 32
Out with an injury most of last season, his three-year looks like .280/.370/.460 — again, a lot higher than Everett’s. That said, like Sexson before him, no one really knows how well he’ll hit coming off his injury. That may make him a bargain, but it certainly makes him a risk.
Scott Hatteberg, “Picking Machine”-L, 36
.260/.340/.380. No thanks.
Bobby Higginson, OF-L, 35
I remember back when Higginson had some decent years. Oh, those were the days.
Jacque Jones, OF-L, 31
Supposedly looking at three years for $6m or more, which is pretty big… but compared to Everett, a premium of $2m gets you a huge defensive upgrade. Three-year is .270/.320/.440 — but as Dave’s noted, he’s great against righties, so you platoon him with (say) Morse or someone, and he’s a monster.
Matt Lawton, OF-L, 34
Failed a drug test last year. Three year is .260/.350/.410 which is about Everett’s equal.
Travis Lee, 1B-L, 31
Three year is .270/.340/.460 (I know, surprising) but he didn’t play almost at all in 2004, so that’s really more a two-year. Lee can also play passable first base, which means Sexson could DH/rest sometimes.
Tino Martinez, 1B-L, 38
Ahhhhh, Tino. Three-year average is .260/.340/.440. But then, he’s old and decaying rapidly.
Bill Mueller, 3B-B, 35
His three-year’s high because he had that monster 2003, but still: .300/.380/.460. But even toss that out, and you’re still looking at .290/.370/.430 which would be way better than Everett production. And he could spell Beltre without putting a Bloomquist-level bat in the lineup. Would he sign for $4m? I’m not sure what he’s been offered so far, but that would be a career-high for him.
Why I Don’t Want Miguel Tejada
Last night, news broke that Miguel Tejada is unhappy in Baltimore and has requested a trade.
Immediately, every fan in the Seattle area who is still pissed that the M’s didn’t sign him two years ago began concocting trade scenarios in which we could rectify the mistake and bring Tejada to Safeco Field. Well, I’m not part of that group. Not only do I not want the Mariners to trade for Miguel Tejada, I wouldn’t swap Yuniesky Betancourt for him in a one for one deal.
And no, I’m not insane. Put the straightjackets away.
Let’s get past the labels here. Forget that Betancourt is “unproven” and Tejada is “a star”. Let’s evaluate what we actually think they’ll do on the field the next four years.
Offense
Tejada hit .304/.349/.515 in 162 games last year. Depending on which runs conversion formula you want to use, that performance was worth about 100-110 runs of offense. We’ll use Runs Created just for consistency and give Tejada credit for the full 110 runs on offense.
Betancourt hit .256/.296/.370 in 60 games last year. His offensive value in his given playing time was 22 runs, which would project out to 60 runs over a full season.
Ignoring park effects, Tejada was worth about 50 runs more than Yuniesky Betancourt offensively in 2005, projected over a full season’s playing time. That’s substantial, no doubt.
Defense
This gets a little trickier. The defensive ratings for Tejada are mostly consistent, placing him right around average. Baseball Prospectus has him at 3 runs below average. From 2000-2003, UZR (the best system out there, in my opinion) had him as exactly average. Chris Dial’s range system had him at 3 runs below average. The outlier in the metrics is David Gassko’s RANGE system, which has him at 25 runs over an average defensive shortstop in 2005. I’m not buying that it’s the only system that picked up on his defensive greatness, especially considering the scouting reports on his glove have been generally mediocre. So, we’ll accept that Tejada is something like an average defensive shortstop.
Due to sample size issues, we don’t really have good data for what Betancourt is defensively. Even the most ardent supporters of defensive metrics would like two full years of numbers to draw any conclusions, and with Betancourt, we only have about 1/6 of that. The defensive data we have on him simply isn’t reliable. However, I think most of us would agree that he’s fairly good with the glove. To what degree, though, we can’t really quantify, so I’m going to take the conservative route and give him credit for saving 10 runs over an average defensive shortstop in a full season. In reality, he’s probably better than that, but I’m erring on the side of caution here.
Total
Adding offense and defense together, and assuming no change in performance from either player, the difference between the two players is about 40 runs over the course of a full season.
40 runs. Trading Betancourt for Tejada, straight up, if neither player changed one bit from their 2005 season, would net the Mariners approximately 40 runs. This number is the absolute best case scenario for Tejada supporters. It assumes Tejada, in his age 30-33 seasons, won’t decline one bit, which as we’ll see in a second, is quite the reach. It assumes that Yuniesky Betancourt won’t improve at all with the bat. It assumes that Betancourt’s glove is only solid, and that he’s not really an elite defensive player. And, lastly, it assumes that there’s no difference in run scoring environments between Safeco Field and Camden Yards.
We know those assumptions aren’t true. Let’s try to quantify how much we’re overstating the case, point by point.
Tejada’s decline
Miguel Tejada is heading into his age 30 season. He’s far from over the hill, but he’s also undoubtedly on the downside of the career development arc. Not every player follows this arc, but as a general rule, trading for a player hoping he’s the exception is folly. Tejada’s most comparable player, according to both Baseball Reference and PECOTA, is Vern Stephens.
Stephens, also a shortstop, hit .295/.361/.511 as an SS in his age 29 season, almost a dead ringer for Tejada’s 2005 season. The next year, at age 30, .300/.364/.501, basically an identical line, but he did so in 40 less games. It would be his last season of any impact. At age 31, he hit .254/.343/.383 in 92 games, and he was reduced to being a role player for the remainder of his career.
It’s not just Stephens, either. A look through most of Tejada’s comparable players shows a similar trend. Cal Ripken, Joe Torre, Travis Fryman, Buddy Bell. They all endured serious decline, to the point of losing most of their value, in their early thirties. There are a few success stories, such as Bobby Doerr, but they are overshadowed by the clear trend of decline for a player with Tejada’s profile.
Prior to the 2005 season, BP’s PECOTA projection for the next 5 seasons had Tejada holding steady through the 2006 campaign, then losing 8.5 percent of his value in 2007, 8.5 percent more in 2008, and 8.2 percent more in 2009. The projection for Tejada essentially costs him about 7 runs per season in decline from 2007-2009.
Betancourt’s improvement
Again, thanks to sample issues, we don’t really have the same kind of data as we do with Tejada. However, Betancourt is almost a certainty to get better offensively, even if only marginally, as young players who reach the majors at his age almost always improve to some degree through their age 28 seasons. How much improvement we should expect is up for interpretation. I’ll go with a modest 3 percent improvement each year for the next four years, which is in the ballpark of what players often compared to Betancourt experienced. It’s not a huge improvement-2 runs in in 2006, 3 runs in 2007, 5 runs in 2008, and 7 runs in 2009-but it’s still significant enough to mention.
Betancourt’s defense
I used the 10 runs above average marker for Betancourt in the intitial comparsion, even though I think that’s low. Elite defensive shortstops, by most metrics, are 25-30 runs above average defensively. That’s more the range I tend to think Betancourt falls into, but without any real evidence, I’m reluctant to use those kind of numbers in the comparison. If you happen to think Betancourt is one of the best defensive shortstops in the game, however, feel free to add 10-15 runs to Yuniesky’s side of the ledger to account for the difference in glovework.
Park Effects
Starting with Tejada, the myth that Camden Yards is some kind of bandbox has been perpetuated in the media, but it simply isn’t true. Overall, Camden has skewed slightly towards pitchers historically. In 2004, Tejada hit better on the road than he did at home. This year, his numbers were better at Camden, but there’s no reason to think that’s evidence that he benefited from his home park, as much as it was likely just the way things shake out in smaller samples. We shouldn’t penalize Tejada at all for his offensive performances coming in Baltimore. We should, however, note that Tejada is exactly the kind of hitter that Safeco can destroy; a right-handed fly ball pull hitter. There’s almost no way he would be able to sustain his offensive performances while playing half his games in Seattle.
Betancourt, on the other hand, certainly deserves a boost to his offensive numbers to account for Safeco Field. Because of its low scoring environment, runs are simply worth more in Safeco than elsewhere. Betancourt’s offensive line in Safeco helps his team win just as much as if he had hit ..275/.320/.400 in a neutral park. The run difference in his translated line is about 5 runs. Again, not a huge difference, but a significant enough one to mention, especially when combined with all the other false assumptions we had to make to get Tejada to the +40 mark in the first place.
Run Value Conclusion
I realize reasonable people can differ on some of these points. I’m sure people will quibble with PECOTA’s projected decline or Betancourt’s defensive evaluation. That’s why I broke out each questionable piece. This way, you can make your own evaluations on how much value you think Tejada adds over Betancourt. The most optimistic scenario, for Tejada, is a 40 run improvement. Depending on your interpretation of the other factors, it could be as low as 15 runs next year.
Essentially, you’re looking at a possible range of performances from both players. Extreme Tejada Fans should assume a 40 run improvement if the M’s made the swap straight up, one for one. Extreme Betancourt Fans should expect about a 15 run improvement. More normal folks will fall somewhere in the middle. That’s where I am. I’d probably expect a total net of about 25 runs in 2006 if the Mariners swapped the two shortstops.
Now, we get to the critical point we have yet to mention: salary. Tejada has 4 years and $48 million left on his contract. Betancourt has 3 years and $3.3 million left on his contract. Assume he gets a decent size paycheck in 2009, we’ll say that Betancourt’s total cost for the next four years is in the $8 million range. So, on average, you’re paying an extra $10 million per season for Tejada. $10 million buys you somewhere between 15-40 runs.
That, folks, is an awful deal. There are several formulas out there, including one published in this year’s 2006 Hardball Times Annual, that place the value of a win at about $2 million. It’s generally accepted that 10 runs is generally equal to 1 win. So, let’s do the math.
40 Run Tejada: $2.25 million per win
A slight overpay, but not a significantly bad one.
30 run Tejada: $3.33 million per win
A definite overpay, and a problem contract.
20 run Tejada: $5 million per win
An albatross contract, one of the worst in baseball, and a player who keeps you from winning.
10 run Tejada: $10 million per win.
Russ Ortiz style debacle.
So, there you go. The range of possible outcomes of swapping Betancourt for Tejada, straight up, range from “not the worst deal in the world” to “franchise crippling”.
There’s no way to justify that trade from an on field performance stand point. None whatsoever. The difference in value Tejada is likely to add over the next four years is dwarfed by the difference in salaries. Yuniesky Betancourt, at $2 million per season, is worth more than Miguel Tejada at $12 million per season.
Championships aren’t won by acquiring stars in their decline finishing out free agent contracts. Just say no to Miguel Tejada.
Carl Everett reference timeline
An incomplete brief and quickly growing history of incidents
Which does not, at least yet, attempt to catalog comments about gay people, dinosaurs, et cetera
Read more
Meetings end, dealing not done
A lot’s in yesterday’s “Thursday’s Moves-a-go-go” comments. Some big notes:
– Manny Ramirez didn’t get moved. He wasn’t even the subject of much discussion.
– Zito and Abreu didn’t get traded either.
– Miguel Tejeda wanting out of Baltimore sets up some interesting possibilities (but not the M’s).
– Millwood’s hanging out
– There are a huge number of free agents still available
Mariners officials left here Thursday afternoon without Kevin Millwood or Matt Morris, without Carl Everett or Jacque Jones, and without dividends from a proposed three-deal domino that could have remade the roster.
Baseball’s winter meetings closed Thursday, but the work is just beginning for the Seattle Mariners and general manager Bill Bavasi.
In looming horrible signing news, Carl Everett’s in the PI
While multiple sources insist Seattle is nearing a deal with Everett — negotiations with the free-agent outfielder are likely to converge on a one-year deal worth about $4 million, with a possible mutual option for 2007
Larry Stone in the Times says that it’s down to Everett’s “soul-searching” (that’s not a joke) over whether he wants to play here.
Hey! Carl!
It’s horrible here. We’re all heathen gay paleontologists. Millions of us. Stay away.
Stone also, finally, raises the child abuse issue (and gives it a full, fact-y paragraph). He does, however, say that charges were dropped which is not true — [edit: my opinion on this is dealt with at length here]
Sigh.
John McGrath in the TNT is the other writer to mention Carl Everett’s child abuse past as part of a little bit where he goes through some of Everett’s history and tries to make it funny.
I don’t understand why, given Everett’s long rap sheet of fights with teammates, umpires, coaches, acting the goat on the field, and making some strange comments about evolution and some bigoted comments about gay people that it’s the comments that have gotten almost all the play so far. Why did it take this long, with Everett all but signed according to these guys, before they print this stuff?
Are the writers afraid if they bring up the really explosive charges and Everett’s long history of fighting that if Everett signs they’ll have a hard time dealing with him? Is the team twisting their arm to make a move more palatable? What makes a nutty belief about dinosaurs more important than the long list of teams that have tossed him out because he wore them out? All the teammates who are divided between “Carl’s an affectionate and funny guy” and “If I ever have to play with him again I’m going to throw myself off the team charter when we’re over the heartland and find some semi-pro team to play with”?
Olerud retires
(sorry, I thought we’d touched on this elsewhere)
John Olerud has retired. I liked Deanna’s write-up.
I’d only add that Olerud’s demeanor has, perhaps, contributed to the lack of notice of what was a long, nice career where he made huge contributions to some great teams.
M’s get new BP jerseys!
Now at least during batting practice there’s a new look for the team. I’m sure this will placate everyone disappointed by the lack of big moves so far. They sure are spiffy.
This may be a marketing play: if enough people immediately buy a new jersey, they’ll sign Millwood.
Also, note that Joel Pineiro gets his name spelled wrong in the caption — and that’s on the team website!
Marcos Carvajal
I’ve just learned that the PTBNL in the Yorvit Torrealba deal is RHP Marcos Carvajal. In describing him to a friend, I called him a Venezuelan Clint Nageotte with a better fastball, and I think that sums him up fairly well.
21-years-old, throws in the low to mid 90s, has a promising breaking ball and a change with good potential, and was relatively effective in the majors last year. He’s a groundball guy with mediocre command but enough stuff to miss a lot of bats. Carvajal is already a better pitcher than Putz or Mateo. Behind Soriano, he’s now the second best righty in the bullpen.
His expected fielding independant ERA last year, which adjusts for the HR inflation that Coors penalized him with, was 4.06.
Oh, he also makes the league minimum this year, and won’t cost significant money until after 2007. This is just a steal, no two ways about it.
M’s pick, lose no one in Rule 5 draft
Not a lot of movement in the major league portion, as it turns out. Baseball America’s got the list. Combined with their preview, you should be able to get a pretty good look at who went where, and why.
Updated: they’ve caught up with the minor-league portion now.
There, the M’s picked 2B Jason Bourgeois. And they’re getting pillaged for talent.
The A’s, as is their habit, are going nuts, picking in every round of the minor league portion.
Thursday’s moves-a-go-go
So! Larry Stone says Carl Everett’s signing is pretty much done:
The Mariners are also on the verge of signing free-agent outfielder Carl Everett to a contract, addressing their need for a left-handed bat. If nothing goes wrong, the signing of Everett, a 34-year-old switch-hitter, could be announced any day, but possibly not until next week. The Mariners need to clear a spot on the 40-man roster for Everett…
Again, this is a horrible, horrible, horrible idea. Stone’s article cowardly pushes Everett’s issues to the second-to-last paragraph of the article:
The other outfielders on Seattle’s radar were Jeromy Burnitz and Everett, with Everett getting the call despite his controversial history.
Yeah. Controversial. That’s one way to put it, I guess. How disappointing.
Also, the M’s didn’t offer arb to PH Dave Hansen, RHP Shigetoshi Hasegawa, RHP Jeff Nelson, or DL Pokey Reese.
According to ESPN, the Red Sox trade Edgar Renteria to the Braves and get ANDY FREAKING MARTE. This is nutty. Marte is a stellar prospect. Renteria bites.
The Blue Jays picked up possible Mariner target Lyle Overbay, and gave up:
RHP Dave Bush
OF-L Gabe Gross
LHP Zach Jackson
That’s quite a haul for Overbay. The Brewers are making some really sweet deals this off-season.
M’s trade Torrealba
No big surprise, as the long rumored Torrealba to Colorado deal finally gets done. The fact that its for a PTBNL almost certainly means that it’s a rule 5 eligible player, and the M’s will announce who they’re receiving after he’s not selected in tomorrow’s draft.
I know it won’t be a popular sentiment, but Bavasi was clear all along that after signing Johjima, the M’s would accommodate Torrealba if another team was interested in giving him an everyday job. The fact that the M’s trade something of value as essentially a favor will get under some people’s skin, but I don’t really have a problem with it. It’s a classy thing to do, and I’m sure Torrealba appreciates the chance to go have a real career before it’s too late.