Well, to be technical, I never said they WERE a fluke. I said they LOOK flukey. And you asnwered your own question. By definition, something that comes from nowhere is a fluke.

“I thought striking people out was a repeatable skill. Also, Lackey’s always had good K rates… better than any Mariner other than Felix.”

It is. He’s always had slightly above average K rates, not good K rates. He’d been low to mid 6s the previous 3 years in MLB and his MiL K rates never got higher than 7.2. Everything in his numbers paints him as a low to mid 6 K guy which is what he was for 3 years and then he suddenly posts an 8.2 K rate last year. That looks flukey. I don’t know how to explain it any clearer. The last part of your statement is completely irrelevant.

“And his K/BB have consistently been better than 2.5/1. That’s quite… again, better than everyone on the Ms staff other than Felix. Lackey’s a good pitcher… one of the best in the AL last year in fact.”

I never said he wasn’t. I said he would likely regress. Most likely his K rates go back to the level he established with his first 1000 or so IP and his ERA climbs back to the low to mid 4 range.

“Anyway, this is silly. When one of us has the time and effort to pick a real methodology to back up our conclusions, we should pick up the debate. Probably the easiest will be to wait for PECOTAs’s to come out. Until then, we’re wasting space.”

I can’t speak for you, but I feel comfortable with my method of player evaluation and feel that I’ve quite explicitly stated why I feel what I do about each player.

Johjima will be an upgrade. It is a difficult thing
to be successful at both aspects of his game immediately
given the adjustment required by him to play here. I would
suspect that his bad will lag his defensive progress.

Anyway, this is silly. When one of us has the time and effort to pick a real methodology to back up our conclusions, we should pick up the debate. Probably the easiest will be to wait for PECOTAs’s to come out. Until then, we’re wasting space.

Furthermore, Escobar has had constant arm problems. Ervin Santana is nowhere near the type of pitcher most people think he is. And Carrasco is a joke. First of all, he’s 36 and has made 6 career starts. Next, the last time this guy had an ERA under 4.25 was 1997 and it was in the NL. Next, he had his great year in Washington, mayhaps the best pitching park in the world. Finally, his periphs were not radically different than ever as shown by his 4.32 xFIP. Comparing him to 3/5 of the Ms rotation is a joke.

and pslim has it right about Texas. A HUGE reason for their offense being so scary is the ballpark. Take a look at Teixiera’s splits. Also, Blalock is not a good hitter. Furthermore, their rotation is full of more ?s than ours. How will Dominguez and Loe adjust to starting full time? Padilla is bad at giving up HRs. Eaton can’t even post above avg ERAs in Petco.

It’s nowhere near as good as last year’s. Colon and Lackey are due to go backwards, not forwards. They lost Washburn’s 3.20 ERA and “replaced” it with Carrasco. It’s a markedly worse rotation.

As for their breakouts, McPherson’s not more advanced, Kotchman is, and Juan Rivera is, but that’s saying nothing since next year he’ll be 27 and be spending his 6th year in the majors.

Oakland 98 wins
Anaheim 89 wins
Texas 84 wins
Seattle 73 wins

Oakland’s pitching is potentially devastating if Harden can remain healthy, while they may not be suited to go far in the playoffs (unless Johnson, Swisher and Crosby take big steps forward and they can keep Payton from getting too many at bats), their pitching depth could give them a hundred wins.

Nothing short of a complete miracle gets the M’s over .500 and into the hunt. By, miracle I mean the following

-Moyer posting an ERA under five
-Beltre having an OPS of at least 8 and a half
-Reed hitting .300
-Carl Everett not getting DFAed by July
-Betancourt hitting league average clip
-Jose Lopez drawing more than one walk per payday
-a) Jarrod Washburn has not exhausted his supply of magic beans.
b) Jarrod Washburn is still in favor with the clutch pitching Gods.

*Since Sexson’s contract is heavily backloaded, and since many contenders (NYY, BOS, CLE, ANA, ATL) could be in the market for a hard hitting firstbaseman, wouldn’t it make sense to deal Sexson in July if the price was right?

I’d rather have Ichiro than Wilkerson as my RF
I’d rather have Reed than Matthews as my CF
I’d rather have Johjima than Barajas at catcher
I’d rather have Beltre than Blalock at 3B

Lopez and Kinsler are close enough at 2B
Sexson and Teixeira are close enough at 1B
Mench and Ibanez are close enough in LF

I’d rather have Dellucci than Everett
I’d rather have Young than Betancourt

Texas has a distinct edge over Seattle at DH and SS, and that’s it really.